Markus Brunnermeier. SIFF 2017 Bern, 20. Juni Princeton University. Brunnermeier
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1 Markus Brunnermeier Princeton University SIFF 2017 Bern, 20. Juni 2017
2 1. Technological change Netflix vs. Blockbusters Skype vs. phone Amazon and Walmart.com Disruptive technologies Creative destruction FinTech Smooth tech-progress Tech-monopolists acquire start-up innovators (US pharmaceutical model) End of cross-subsidization Unbundling (end of universal bank model?) Inclusion Less trust/collateral need 5
3 Macro Implications 1. Technological change Netflix vs. Blockbusters Skype vs. phone Amazon and Walmart.com Disruptive technologies Creative destruction Smooth tech-progress Tech-monopolists acquire start-up innovators (US pharmaceutical model) Firm-specific risk is high Delay investment < savings (precautionary) Cash hoarding Cash savings for acquisitions 9
4 Corporate cash savings Not consistent with demographic reasoning Peter Chen, Loukas Karabarbounis, Brent Neiman, The Global Rise of Corporate Saving (2017), NBER WP#
5 Corporate cash savings Peter Chen, Loukas Karabarbounis, Brent Neiman, The Global Rise of Corporate Saving (2017), NBER WP#
6 Return implications Risk Free Rate (low) Risk-premium (high) Equity risk premium Williams (2017) BEAP discussion Caballero et al. (2017) 14
7 Return implications Risk Free Rate (low) Risk-premium (high) Equity risk premium Implications for monetary policy, safe asset supply & investment advice 15
8 Productivity J-curve effect Why is productivity so low, despite of all this innovation? It first has to go down before it goes up Example: Investments in driverless car technology no productivity increase YET! t 17
9 2. Political uncertainty Global financial architecture: IMF/Worldbank was designed/led by US & UK US: Trump, UK: Brexit US/UK step back on global leadership Who will step in? China: Capital account and exchange rate regime Increasing debt level Europe: 18
10 2. US Political Uncertainty Political Uncertainty (high) VIX (low) 19
11 2. Europe risks now more contained Redenomination risk (exit risk) + Reformstau will be removed France E. Macron Financial/banking risk Italy individual banks equity issuance by Unit Credit Geopolitical risk Ukraine/Russia Syria/Turkey North Africa (population explosion) migration 20
12 2. Europe: Different economic philosophies French German 1. Discretion & straitjacket commitment Rules & safety valves actively manage current crisis creates precedence/future crisis 2. Solidarity Liability Principle Risk sharing Eurobonds/safe asset 3. Liquidity Solvency No transfer union/bailouts No joint liability 4. Keynesian Stimulus Austerity/Reform 21
13 switched sides after WWII 2. Europe: Different economic philosophies French German 1. Discretion & straitjacket commitment Rules & safety valves manage current crisis creates precedence/future crisis 2. Solidarity Liability Principle Risk sharing Eurobonds/safe asset 3. Liquidity Solvency No transfer union/bailouts No joint liability 4. Keynesian Stimulus Austerity/Reform
14 2. Europe: Different economic philosophies French German 1. Discretion & straitjacket commitment Rules & safety valves manage current crisis creates precedence/future crisis 2. Solidarity Liability Principle Risk sharing Eurobonds/safe asset 3. Liquidity Solvency No transfer union/bailouts No joint liability 4. Keynesian Stimulus Austerity/Reform
15 Pooling Safe Asset: ESBies/SBBS (sovereign bond backed securities) Flight to safetyssborder Eliminated A Re-channeled across two European bonds L sovereign bonds ESBies Junior Bond Tranching Euro-nomics Group (2011) 25
16 Pooling Safe Asset: ESBies/SBBS (sovereign bond backed securities) Diabolic loop Sovereign-Banking Nexus Flight to safetyssborder A Eliminated Re-channeled across two European bonds L sovereign bonds ESBies Junior Bond Tranching Euro-nomics Group (2011) 26
17 Pooling Safe Asset: ESBies/SBBS (sovereign bond backed securities) Diabolic loop Sovereign-Banking Nexus Flight to safety Cross-border A Eliminated Re-channeled across two European bonds L sovereign bonds ESBies Junior Bond Tranching Euro-nomics Group (2011) 27
18 Overall European Stability Framework Spread Friction Instrument Flight to safety Diabolic loop Safety risk premium ESBies/SBBS Selfstabilizing Liquidity problem due to (self-fulfilling) multiplicity Liquidity problem due to lack of commitment Default risk premium ECB Lender of last resort ESM conditionality + ECB s OMT Interventionistic Solvency problem Restructuring Expected default Exit risk Redenomination risk premium Risk premium for endogenous (self-generated) risks are socially wasteful Total risk can be reduces 28
19 Conclusion Technological change/uncertainty (disruptive vs. smooth progress) Cash hoarding Investment < savings low risk-free rate high risk premia Monetary policy implications Investment advice Political uncertainty Global US: political uncertainty but low VIX Europe: Different economic philosophies Challenge: Finding good compromises ESBies/SBBS 29
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