Micro and Macro Trends in Food Demand
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1 Micro and Macro Trends in Food Demand Timothy K. M. Beatty Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics University of California, Davis January 29, 2015 TKM Beatty (UC Davis) Micro and Macro Trends in Food Demand January 29, / 45
2 Outline 1 World Wide Calorie Trends 2 Trends in Food Prices & Spending 3 Time Use 4 Nutrition 5 Federal Food Assistance TKM Beatty (UC Davis) Micro and Macro Trends in Food Demand January 29, / 45
3 Outline 1 World Wide Calorie Trends 2 Trends in Food Prices & Spending 3 Time Use 4 Nutrition 5 Federal Food Assistance TKM Beatty (UC Davis) Micro and Macro Trends in Food Demand January 29, / 45
4 Log(KCal) per person per day Calorie - Wealth Relationship (a) Share of KCal from Animal Sources Log(GDP per captia) 2005 PPP (b) 6 TKM Beatty (UC Davis) Log(GDP per captia) 2005 PPP Micro and Macro Trends in Food Demand January 29, / 45
5 Calorie - Wealth Relationship KCal Total Calories Year Canada Germany USA Japan TKM Beatty (UC Davis) Micro and Macro Trends in Food Demand January 29, / 45
6 Calorie - Wealth Relationship Percent of Total Calories From Animal Sources Percent Year Canada Germany USA Japan TKM Beatty (UC Davis) Micro and Macro Trends in Food Demand January 29, / 45
7 Aging Population TKM Beatty (UC Davis) Micro and Macro Trends in Food Demand January 29, / 45
8 Aging Population: India and China TKM Beatty (UC Davis) Micro and Macro Trends in Food Demand January 29, / 45
9 Aging Population: Canada TKM Beatty (UC Davis) Micro and Macro Trends in Food Demand January 29, / 45
10 Aging Population: United States TKM Beatty (UC Davis) Micro and Macro Trends in Food Demand January 29, / 45
11 Aging Population: Germany TKM Beatty (UC Davis) Micro and Macro Trends in Food Demand January 29, / 45
12 Aging Population: Japan TKM Beatty (UC Davis) Micro and Macro Trends in Food Demand January 29, / 45
13 GDP Per Capita to 2050 GDP Per Capita (2005 PPP) GDP Per Capita to Year Canada Germany USA Japan TKM Beatty (UC Davis) Micro and Macro Trends in Food Demand January 29, / 45
14 Global Calorie Projections: Demand 14,000 12,000 Trillion (kilocalories) 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 FAO FBS Low Mid High FAO Projec5on Linear Trend, Polynomial Trend, TKM Beatty (UC Davis) Micro and Macro Trends in Food Demand January 29, / 45
15 Model Overview TKM Beatty (UC Davis) Micro and Macro Trends in Food Demand January 29, / 45
16 Biofuels: Present TKM Beatty (UC Davis) Micro and Macro Trends in Food Demand January 29, / 45
17 Biofuels: Future Projections iap model Billion liters OECD- FAO 2011 OECD- FAO 2012 EIA Alfstad TKM Beatty (UC Davis) Micro and Macro Trends in Food Demand January 29, / 45
18 Global Calorie Projections: Supply 12,000 10,000 million metric tons 8,000 6,000 4,000 2, FAO 2010 FAO 2050 MM Cereals Fruit and Vege. Oil and Fiber Pulses, Roots and Tubers Sugar Cane TKM Beatty (UC Davis) Micro and Macro Trends in Food Demand January 29, / 45
19 Land Allocation TKM Beatty (UC Davis) Micro and Macro Trends in Food Demand January 29, / 45
20 Global Calorie Projections: Supply Million ha Percent FAO High Med Low TKM Beatty (UC Davis) Micro and Macro Trends in Food Demand January 29, / 45
21 Global Calorie Projections: Supply million ha 1, FAO Low Medium High High income Low and middle Africa LAC Rest of low and middle TKM Beatty (UC Davis) Micro and Macro Trends in Food Demand January 29, / 45
22 Yield Model Example: Sorghum in India Yield (Metric Tons) Model 1 Model 2 Model 3 Model 4 Model 5 Model 6 Model 7 Model 8 Actual TKM Beatty (UC Davis) Micro and Macro Trends in Food Demand January 29, / 45
23 Global Calorie Projections: Yields TKM Beatty (UC Davis) Micro and Macro Trends in Food Demand January 29, / 45
24 Outline 1 World Wide Calorie Trends 2 Trends in Food Prices & Spending 3 Time Use 4 Nutrition 5 Federal Food Assistance TKM Beatty (UC Davis) Micro and Macro Trends in Food Demand January 29, / 45
25 Trends in Relative U.S. Food Prices Relative Index Value Year Food At Home Food Away From Home TKM Beatty (UC Davis) Micro and Macro Trends in Food Demand January 29, / 45
26 Trends in Expenditure Total Expenditure (a) 2000q1 2002q3 2005q1 2007q3 2010q1 Date First Quartile Third Quartile Second Quartile Fourth Quartile Total Food Expenditure (b) 2000q1 2002q3 2005q1 2007q3 2010q1 Date First Quartile Third Quartile Second Quartile Fourth Quartile TKM Beatty (UC Davis) Micro and Macro Trends in Food Demand January 29, / 45
27 Food at Home vs. Food Away from Home: Shares Food at Home Share (a) 2000q1 2002q3 2005q1 2007q3 2010q1 Date First Quartile Third Quartile Second Quartile Fourth Quartile Food away from Home Share q1 2002q3 2005q1 2007q3 2010q1 Date (b) First Quartile Third Quartile Second Quartile Fourth Quartile TKM Beatty (UC Davis) Micro and Macro Trends in Food Demand January 29, / 45
28 Food Away from Home: Type Fast Food Share of Food Away From Home (a) 2000q1 2002q3 2005q1 2007q3 2010q1 Date First Quartile Third Quartile Second Quartile Fourth Quartile Full Service Share of Food Away From Home q1 2002q3 2005q1 2007q3 2010q1 Date (b) First Quartile Third Quartile Second Quartile Fourth Quartile TKM Beatty (UC Davis) Micro and Macro Trends in Food Demand January 29, / 45
29 Outline 1 World Wide Calorie Trends 2 Trends in Food Prices & Spending 3 Time Use 4 Nutrition 5 Federal Food Assistance TKM Beatty (UC Davis) Micro and Macro Trends in Food Demand January 29, / 45
30 Trends in Time Use: Food Preparation Minutes Spent in Food Preparation per day (a) 2003q3 2006q1 2008q3 2011q1 2013q3 Date First Quartile Third Quartile Second Quartile Fourth Quartile TKM Beatty (UC Davis) Micro and Macro Trends in Food Demand January 29, / 45
31 Trends in Time Use: Food Shopping Minutes Spent in Food Shopping per day (b) 2003q3 2006q1 2008q3 2011q1 2013q3 Date First Quartile Third Quartile Second Quartile Fourth Quartile TKM Beatty (UC Davis) Micro and Macro Trends in Food Demand January 29, / 45
32 Trends in Time Use: Eating Minutes Spent Eating per day (c) 2003q3 2006q1 2008q3 2011q1 2013q3 Date First Quartile Third Quartile Second Quartile Fourth Quartile TKM Beatty (UC Davis) Micro and Macro Trends in Food Demand January 29, / 45
33 Outline 1 World Wide Calorie Trends 2 Trends in Food Prices & Spending 3 Time Use 4 Nutrition 5 Federal Food Assistance TKM Beatty (UC Davis) Micro and Macro Trends in Food Demand January 29, / 45
34 Trends in Nutrition: HEI Definition Table: * Healthy Eating Index 2005 Standards for Scoring Score Component Total fruit cup eq/1000 kcal Whole fruit cup eq/1000 kcal Total vegetables cup eq/1000 kcal Dark green/orange cup eq/1000 kcal Total grains cup eq/1000 kcal Whole grains cup eq/1000 kcal Milk cup eq/1000 kcal Meats and beans oz eq/1000 kcal Oils 0 12 g/1000 kcal Saturated fat % of kcal Sodium g/1000 kcal SoFAAS a 50 20% of kcal Source: Recreated from Guenther et al. (2007) a Calories from Solid Fat, Alcohol, and Added Sugar TKM Beatty (UC Davis) Micro and Macro Trends in Food Demand January 29, / 45
35 Trends in Nutrition Density yr Difference Difference 95% C.I Heathly Eating Index TKM Beatty (UC Davis) Micro and Macro Trends in Food Demand January 29, / 45
36 Trends in Nutrition Difference Reformulation! h! h,e Residual Healthy Eating Index TKM Beatty (UC Davis) Micro and Macro Trends in Food Demand January 29, / 45
37 Age-Period-Cohort Models of Nutrition: Age Adequacy Score TKM Beatty (UC Davis) Micro and Macro Trends in Food Demand January 29, / 45
38 Age-Period-Cohort Models of Nutrition: Age Moderation Score TKM Beatty (UC Davis) Micro and Macro Trends in Food Demand January 29, / 45
39 Age-Period-Cohort Models of Nutrition: Cohort Adequacy Score TKM Beatty (UC Davis) Micro and Macro Trends in Food Demand January 29, / 45
40 Age-Period-Cohort Models of Nutrition: Cohort Moderation Score TKM Beatty (UC Davis) Micro and Macro Trends in Food Demand January 29, / 45
41 Outline 1 World Wide Calorie Trends 2 Trends in Food Prices & Spending 3 Time Use 4 Nutrition 5 Federal Food Assistance TKM Beatty (UC Davis) Micro and Macro Trends in Food Demand January 29, / 45
42 U.S. Federal Agriculture Appropriation 2013 TKM Beatty (UC Davis) Micro and Macro Trends in Food Demand January 29, / 45
43 SNAP: Participation Participation in Food Stamps / SNAP Percent of Population Participants (Millions) Fiscal Year Percent of Population Particpant Numbers TKM Beatty (UC Davis) Micro and Macro Trends in Food Demand January 29, / 45
44 SNAP: Benefits Average Benefits Benefits in Food Stamps / SNAP (2014 Base) Fiscal Year Total Benefits (Millions) Per Person Benefits Total Benefits TKM Beatty (UC Davis) Micro and Macro Trends in Food Demand January 29, / 45
45 Acknowledgements This talk draws on joint work with former students Travis Smith (UGA) and Charlotte Tuttle (ERS) It also draws on joint work with former colleagues at the University of Minnesota, Ben Senauer, Phil Pardey, Jason Beddow and Terry Hurley. TKM Beatty (UC Davis) Micro and Macro Trends in Food Demand January 29, / 45
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