This would lower the year-end S&P 500 target price from 2,140 to 2,040. The technical picture of the market is also deteriorating.
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1 January 13, 2016 SPECIAL BULLETIN We are now in the 82 nd month of a Bull Market and U.S. Markets are now getting very close to giving a SELL SIGNAL. As you know, I have been bullish on the market since March 23, Once again, in last week s newsletter I reaffirmed by bullish stance. So what has happened since then? I do not like the fact that JP Morgan said today that it is possible that S&P earnings could be closer to $120 this year, as opposed to the $126 consensus number. This would lower the year-end S&P 500 target price from 2,140 to 2,040. The technical picture of the market is also deteriorating. You can see from the five-year chart of the market below, just how close we are to breaking long-term support. That would happen at approximately 1,800 on the S&P 500. We closed the day at 1,890. 1
2 The support level for the Dow Jones Industrial Average currently sits at about 15,370. We closed the day at 16,151. The Nasdaq has support at about 4,300. It closed today at 4,526. 2
3 The Small-cap index is very, very close to breaking support. It closed right on its support level today. The Mid-Cap Index is also close to a full on sell signal. It has support at 1,270. It closed the day at 1,274. 3
4 Europe is also breaking down. And Emerging Markets continue to break down. 4
5 What am I doing to preserve your capital, and what do I plan on doing if U.S. market fall into a bear market? I am not a stay the course money manager. It makes little sense to ride a bear market down 50% or more. I invented my BEST STOCKS NOW app during the 2009 BEAR MARKET. The driving force behind it was to BE PREPARED for the next BEAR MARKET. The next bear market is not underway yet, but I am prepared for when it does eventually begin. As you know, I began the year with a high degree of cash. Overall, Gunderson Capital Mgt. is currently in a 30% cash position. This is not a small amount of cash. My percentage of cash will continue to increase if the market continues to fall. I look at each and every one of my holdings several times each and every day. I have a line in the sand drawn on each and every one of them. I also bought my first serious inverse position last week. I added an inverse emerging markets ETF. You can see from the chart below, the recent major trend reversal in this ETF. This investment will be very profitable if the market continues to break down. Emerging Markets continue to be THE WEAKEST AND MOST VULNERABLE area of Global Markets. 5
6 SDS would be a very profitable investment if the S&P 500 breaks down. As you can see from the chart below, it is just a little too soon to invest in it, however. DXD would be very profitable IF THE DOW breaks down. It has not broken down yet, however. 6
7 QID would be an excellent investment if the Nasdaq breaks down. BIS is the inverse biotech sector. It would more than likely be the next inverse investment that I make, if the market continues to break down. 7
8 Financials would also be very vulnerable during a bear market. SKF is inverse those financials. It was up big time back in Does this market still have a chance of turning around to the upside? YES What could turn this market around? A rally in the oil markets. Action by the FED. A big technical bounce off of long-term support levels. Blowout earnings by some bell-weather companies. We get Intel, JP Morgan, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup earnings this week. I don t see much hope there. A better than expected earnings season. This is what turned the market around after the big sell-off last August. I do not want to miss a big rebound in the market either, should it materialize, but we are sitting on the edge of cliff, and the market will make up its mind soon. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THIS: I am here for 10 hours each and every day. I cannot remember the last time that I missed a day of work. I invented my app during the last bear market. I feel like I am prepared for the next one. 8
9 When the market finally makes up its mind, I am going to do everything that I can do to make money for you. I am extremely busy during market hours. But my assistants are always here to talk to you. Best Regards, Bill Gunderson President & Founder Gunderson Capital Mgt. 9
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