Taking Liquidity Management to the Next Level

Transcription

1 Taking Liquidity Management to the Next Level John C. Donohue RBC Global Asset Management Laura Glenn, CFA Georgia Office of the State Treasurer March 20, 2019

2 The Building Blocks of Liquidity Management: Investment Policy Economic Outlook Interest Rates Credit Risk Trading & Risk Management Shareholder Needs & Liquidity 2

3 Portfolio Investment Objectives: Set return expectations Clarify term structure Establish investment universe Conduct scenario analysis Risk Tolerances: Understand investment risks: Credit risk, Interest rate risk, Liquidity risk Vet portfolio objectives and policy controls Establish accountabilities and cross-checks Define parameters for: 1. Liquidity 2. Volatility 3. Income & Capital Preservation 3

4 Current Financial Conditions 4

5 Overview Issues impacting growth and the US rates outlook Decelerating growth in 2019 Expect 2-2.5% US GDP in 2019 Risks accumulating through 2019: Tariffs / Trade War Flattening to Inverted Curve Political Uncertainty Global growth slowing / geopolitical concerns Federal Reserve No longer accommodative and nearing a policy peak 5

6 Index Value New Home Sales (thousands) Existing Home Sales (millions) Payrolls Change (000's) Economy Decelerating in % GDP Jobs growth continues to be strong Consumer confidence remains high but off of peak Housing strength beginning to slow Economic benefit from tax reform fades in Nonfarm Payrolls Change MoM 0 Feb 2014 Feb 2015 Feb 2016 Feb 2017 Feb 2018 Feb Feb 2014 Feb 2015 Feb 2016 Feb 2017 Feb 2018 Feb 2019 As of Source: Bloomberg Consumer Confidence New and Existing Home Sales 0 0 Feb 2014 Feb 2015 Feb 2016 Feb 2017 Feb 2018 Feb 2019 New Home Sales Existing Home Sales

7 Yield Inflation Range Bound Around 2% Inflation still below normal historical expectations. Market expectations of future inflation are falling Full employment has not translated to wage growth 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% PCE Inflation YoY Change The Fed expects inflation will remain around their 2% target objective in the medium term The Fed will have trouble justifying further rate hikes when there is little concern of higher inflation -2% 2.4% 2.2% 2.0% 1.8% 1.6% 1.4% 1.2% 1.0% Headline PCE Core PCE 10-year Forward Inflation Expectations Based on TIPS Breakevens As of Source: Bloomberg 7

8 The Federal Reserve 8

9 Making Sense of the Federal Reserve The Fed can use four tools to achieve its monetary policy goals: the discount rate, reserve requirements, open market operations and interest on reserves. Discount Rate - the interest rate Reserve Banks charge commercial banks for short-term loans. Reserve Requirements - the portions of deposits that banks must hold in cash, either in their vaults or on deposit at a Reserve Bank. Open Market Operations - the buying and selling of U.S. government securities. This tool is directed by the FOMC and carried out by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Interest on Reserves The newest and most frequently used tool given to the Fed by Congress after the Financial Crisis of Interest on reserves is paid on excess reserves held at Reserve Banks. The Fed requires banks to hold a percentage of their deposits on reserve. In addition to these reserves banks often hold extra funds on reserve. The current policy of paying interest on reserves allows the Fed to use interest as a monetary policy tool to influence bank lending. 9

10 Trillions Federal Reserve Near Peak of Tightening Cycle The Fed is likely on hold for rate increases in 2019 Can afford to be patient and data focused Fed policy has almost run its course for numerous reasons: o o o o Fed has been aggressive on rates and balance sheet Flat curve Lack of higher inflation Trade war and the tangible impact it s having on corporate profits Powell acknowledged that the current policy for rates is in the range of committee s estimates of neutral rate Fed is now reducing its balance sheet by $50 billion per month, but not on autopilot o January Fed minutes indicate balance sheet roll off may be done in 2019, potentially settling around $3.5T The Path to Reducing the Fed Balance Sheet? $5.0 $4.5 $4.0 $3.5 $3.0 $2.5 $2.0 $1.5 $1.0 $0.5 $0.0 As of Source: Bloomberg, Federal Reserve Treasuries Agency MBS Loans Other Assets 10

11 The Fed s Balance Sheet Source: SOM Economics 11

12 FOMC Meeting Minutes STATEMENT ON LONGER-RUN GOALS AND MONETARY POLICY STRATEGY (As amended effective January 29, 2019) The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is firmly committed to fulfilling its statutory mandate from the Congress of promoting maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates. The Committee seeks to explain its monetary policy decisions to the public as clearly as possible. Such clarity facilitates well-informed decision making by households and businesses, reduces economic and financial uncertainty, increases the effectiveness of monetary policy, and enhances transparency and accountability, which are essential in a democratic society. 12

13 FOMC Statement January 30, 2019 Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in December indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has been rising at a solid rate. Job gains have been strong, on average, in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Household spending has continued to grow strongly, while growth of business fixed investment has moderated from its rapid pace earlier last year. On a 12-month basis, both overall inflation and inflation for items other than food and energy remain near 2 percent. Although marketbased measures of inflation compensation have moved lower in recent months, survey-based measures of longerterm inflation expectations are little changed. Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. In support of these goals, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 2-1/4 to 2-1/2 percent. The Committee continues to view sustained expansion of economic activity, strong labor market conditions, and inflation near the Committee s symmetric 2 percent objective as the most likely outcomes. In light of global economic and financial developments and muted inflation pressures, the Committee will be patient as it determines what future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate may be appropriate to support these outcomes. In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its maximum employment objective and its symmetric 2 percent inflation objective. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments. Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Jerome H. Powell, Chairman; John C. Williams, Vice Chairman; Michelle W. Bowman; Lael Brainard; James Bullard; Richard H. Clarida; Charles L. Evans; Esther L. George; Randal K. Quarles; and Eric S. Rosengren 13

14 The Fed Meetings (FOMC GO) Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. 14

15 Fed Funds Futures as of November 6, 2018 Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. 15

16 Fed Funds Futures as of February 25, 2019 Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. 16

17 FOMC DOT PLOT Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. 17

18 Long Term Outlook Are the Fed targets too aggressive? On rates and balance sheet reduction Inflation struggles to build Retail & Technological effects Flattening yield curve Recessions typically follow inverted yield curves between 6 & 24 months Trade wars and protectionism Beginning to impact corporate earnings Rising recession risk: Is there a slow down on the horizon? Longer term factors o o Demographics US Energy Independence 18

19 RBC GAM-US Fair Value Treasury & Fed Funds Rate Forecast Current Market Rate RBC GAM-US Modeled Fair Rate RBC GAM-US Forecast 1 Year Forward Fed Funds 2.40% 2.40% 2.40% 1 Yr 2.54% 2.40% 2.40% 2 Yr 2.51% 2.40% 2.40% 3 Yr 2.49% 2.45% 2.45% 5 Yr 2.51% 2.50% 2.50% 10 Yr 2.72% 2.75% 2.75% We believe market is fair valued to current pace of rate hikes Timing is not as important as trajectory As of Source: RBC GAM-US. RBC GAM-US Model Rates are based on projected economic, geo-political and market conditions. Views of RBC Global Asset Management are as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. The information is not a guarantee of future rates and actual results may differ materially from those described as a result of various factors. 19

20 Investment Universe 20

21 Short Term Investments U.S. Treasury Securities Agency Securities (Fixed/Floating & Callable) Supranationals Bank Obligations Repurchase Agreements Floating Rate Notes Municipal Notes Commercial Paper & Corporate Notes ABCP Asset-backed Commercial Paper Asset-backed Securities 21

22 Short Term Investments - Supply Source: J.P. Morgan, Bloomberg Finance L.P. 22

23 Credit Analysis 23

24 Ongoing Surveillance Corporate Business Risk Financial Profile Economic Outlook Analyst Team and Research Process Fundamental Analysis Asset-backed Collateral Performance Servicing Expertise Legal Structure Credit Committee Approval Approved Issuer List Constant Re-evaluation Real-time News and Ratings Feeds Same-day Financial Modeling Due Diligence Visits Proprietary Tools 24

25 Analyzing Short Term Investments Corporate/Financial Credit Risks Business Risk Management experience Competitive position Industry characteristics Financial Profile Profitability Capital structure Liquidity Economic Outlook Govt/regulatory issues Employment Inflation 25

26 A Well-Defined Universe Short Term Portfolio Investments Diversified Benchmark and non-benchmark exposure Broad sector coverage Treasury Mortgage Municipal Credit Diversified sources of income Sub-sectors Issuers High quality Strategic overweight to spread sectors Persistent Treasury underweight AAA BBB rated Typical maturities 1 5 years Duration 1 3 years Risk Management High quality focus reduces potential credit risk and portfolio volatility High quality credits (AA) have provided consistent positive excess returns with high correlation to Treasury securities. 1 ICE BofAML US Treasury 1-3 Year Index (1/1997 to 12/2018) Information Ratio Standard Deviation Excess Return Correlation/ Treasury (%) AA A BBB Financial Industrial Information Ratio measures portfolio management s performance against risk and return relative to a benchmark. Source: RBC Global Asset Management, ICE Data Indices, FactSet. Past performance is not indicative of future results. 1 This information is for illustrative purposes only to highlight the various characteristics for fixed income securities of various credit quality ratings. It does not represent any specific security and these characteristics will vary depending on interest rate and changes in the overall market. The information contained herein should not be relied upon as the sole factor when making an investment decision. 26

27 Portfolio Structure & Trading 27

28 Basic Portfolio Structures Three Basic Structures Laddered Portfolios o Used when expectations are for a neutral rate environment o Maturities are staggered equally along the yield curve Barbell Portfolios o Used when expectations are for the yield curve to flatten o Maturities are heavy in both the long end and front end of the curve Bullet Portfolios o Used when expectations are for the yield curve to steepen o Maturities are weighted heavily on the short end of the curve 28

29 Repurchase Agreements ( Repo ) Types of Collateral (Typical Spread +/- Fed Funds) Traditional Treasuries (-3) Agencies (+3) Non-Traditional ( NTR ) Tier-1 CP (+10) Tier-2 CP (+15) A or Better Corps (+12) Munis (+20) Equities (+20 to 50) 29

30 Credit Research and Report Counterparty Risk Assessment Model The Counterparty Risk Assessment Model is OST s financial model used to assess counterparty credit risk. The model uses real time market driven factors to measure credit risk. These factors include counterparty credit risk swaps, counterparty bond spread to treasuries, equity indicators and counterparty agency short-term ratings. An overall score is used to assess risk and rank counterparties accordingly. Credit limits have been assigned to each credit risk category, which range from very low to extremely high risk. Credit exposure is determined for each counterparty. The Portfolio Assistant assesses counterparty risk for the OST s investments bi-weekly. A daily review by the Compliance Officer of investment activity and exposure is completed to confirm our counterparty exposure meets the investment policy. Assessment Inputs: 1. Kamakura JC5 1-year default probability 2. Bloomberg 1-year DRSK default probability 3. Counterparty 5-year CDS over S&P/ISDA U.S. Investment Grade CDS Index 4. Bloomberg implied 5-year CDS over S&P/IDSA U.S. Investment Grade CDS Index 5. 5-year Senior Unsecured bond spread to 5-year US Treasury 6. Moody s, S&P and Fitch short-term ratings 7. Counterparty historical call implied volatility spread to S&P historical call implied volatility All inputs with the exception of short term ratings are 1-month averages. 30

31 Counterparty Risk Assessment Criteria Risk Level Equity Indicators Default Probabilities Credit Default Swaps 5 YR Bond Agency Ratings Spread over Call Volatility Index Kamakura 1 YR Default Probability Bloomberg 1 YR Default Probability Number of times Counterparty Bloomberg Implied CDS is over IG Number of times Counterparty Market CDS is over IG Spread over 5 YR Treasury S&P Moody's Fitch OST Overall Ranking Very Low 10 Points 0.01 % 0.01 % 1X 1X 100 bps A1 + Positive P1 Positive F1+ Positive A1 + Stable F1+ Stable 80+ points 0 points 12.5 points 12.5 points 12.5 points 12.5 points 25 points 20 points Low > 10 Points & 25 Points > 0.01 % & % > 0.01 % & % > 1X & 1.5X > 1X & 1.5X > 100 bps & 200 bps A1 + Negative P1 Stable F1+ Negative A1 Positive F1 Positive points 0 points 10 points 10 points 10 points 10 points 20 points 16 points Moderate > 25 Points & 30 Points > % & % > % & % > 1.5 X & 2 X > 1.5 X & 2 X > 200 bps & 300 bps A1 Stable P1 Negative F1 Stable points -2 points 7.5 points 7.5 points 7.5 points 7.5 points 15 points 12 points High >30 Points & 35 Points > % & 0.30 % > % & 0.30 % >2 X & 2.5 X >2 X & 2.5 X > 300 bps & 400 bps A1 Negative F1 Negative A2 P2 F points -3 points 5points 5points 5 points 5 points 10 points 8 points Very High >35 Points & 40 Points >0.30 % & 0.80 % >0.30 % & 0.80 % > 2.5X & 3.0 X > 2.5X & 3.0 X > 400 bps & < 500 bps A3 P3 F points -4 points 2.5 points 2.5 points 2.5 points 2.5 points 5 points 4 points Extremely > 40 Points > 0.80 % > 0.80 % > 3.0 X > 3.0 X > 500 bps < A3 < P3 < F3 High under 15 points -5 points 0 points 0 points 0 points 0 points 0 points 0 points 31

32 Counterparty Risk Assessment Credit Limits and Exposure Risk Level OST Overall Ranking Score Maximum Credit Limits Counterparty % Exposure % of $15BB AUM CP Limits Traditional O/N Non- Traditional Term Credit Limits (Max. 6 months) Traditional Term Non- Traditional Very Low 80+ points $2.0 Billion 13% $650MM X X $825MM X X Low points $1.5 Billion 10% $440MM X X $440MM X X Moderate points $1.0 Billion 7% $0 X 165MM X High points $500MM 4% $0 X $0 Very High points $250MM 1% $0 X $0 Extremely High under 15 points $0 0% $0 $0 (No Exposure) (No Exposure) (No Exposure) 32

33 Where to Invest Along The Yield Curve 33

34 Breakeven Analysis Fed Tightens in December 2018 and March 2019 Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. 34

35 Breakeven Analysis Fed Tightens in December 2018 and March 2019 Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. 35

36 Breakeven Analysis Fed Tightens in December 2018 Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. 36

37 Euro Dollar Futures for Medium-Term Notes ( MTNs ) EDSF GO Pricing MTNs off Bloomberg EDSF screen 1 year Rate Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. 37

38 Treasury & Money Markets (BTMM GO) Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. 38

39 Yield Change (bps) Treasury Yields Treasury Yields Dec Dec Dec Dec Change in Yields (bps): 12/31/2015 to 12/31/2016 Change in Yields (bps): 12/31/2016 to 12/31/2017 Change in Yields (bps): 12/31/2017 to 12/31/ Month 0.16% 0.51% 1.39% 2.45% +35 bps +88 bps +106 bps 6 Month 0.49% 0.62% 1.53% 2.56% +13 bps +91 bps +87 bps 1 Year 0.65% 0.85% 1.89% 2.63% +20 bps +91 bps +87 bps 5 Year 1.76% 1.93% 2.20% 2.51% +17 bps +27 bps +31 bps Mo 3 Mo 6 Mo 1 Yr 2 Yr 3 Yr 5 Yr 7 Yr 10 Yr 1 yr chg 3 yr chg 5 yr chg As of Source: 39

40 Yield Yield U.S. Treasury Rates The spread between 2- year and 10-year Treasuries continues to narrow and is now under 20bps The spread between 2- year and 5-year Treasuries has been flat to negative 3.5% 3.3% 3.1% 2.9% 2.7% 2.5% 2.3% 2.1% 1.9% 1.7% 1.5% 3.5% 3.3% 3.1% 2.9% 2.7% 2.5% 2.3% 2.1% 1.9% 1.7% 1.5% The flattening yield curve is a reflection of lack of confidence in future GDP growth and inflation As of Source: Bloomberg 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 2-Yr Treasury 5-Yr Treasury 10-Year Treasury 1m 6m 12m 2yr 3yr 5yr 7yr 10yr 30yr 02/28/19 01/31/19 02/28/18 40

41 The Importance of Liquidity Liquidity doesn t matter until it matters, and when it does matter, it s the only thing that matters! - Unknown - 41

42 The Yield Benefit of Adding Credit December

43 The Yield Benefit of Adding Credit December

44 Spread Shift (bps) Model Money Market Portfolio Stress Test Implications for Runs Parallel Interest Rate & Spread Shifts Combined with 30% Redemption Level Interest Rate Shift (bps) Source: Investor Analytics as of Data is based on a model money market portfolio with a duration of 60 days and a WAL of 100 days with a 30% redemption level and assumes a pro rata share of each investment in the portfolio is liquidated to meet the redemption. Shading represents approaching and crossing the implied VNAV (variable net asset value) limit of less than

45 Other Considerations Mark-to-Market (GASB pronouncements) When it makes sense to sell QFC Information (Qualified Financial Contracts) Collateral Substitution and Collateral Liquidation 45

46 Suggested Reading Investing Public Funds, Girard Miller with M. Corinne Larson and W. Paul Zorn Managing Your Investment Manager, Arthur Williams III Trader s Guide to the Repo Market, Ellen Taylor The Money Market, Marcia Stigum The Politics of Public Fund Investing: How to Modify Wall Street to Fit Main Street, Ben Finkelstein 46

47 Appendix 47

48 Bios John C. Donohue Managing Director, Head of Liquidity Management John Donohue leads our institutional distribution efforts to position RBC GAM as an industry leader in liquidity management. John has spent the majority of his career in the short duration fixed income space, holding leadership roles within both portfolio management and distribution. John joined RBC GAM-US in January 2015 from Eaton Vance, where he was the Director of Institutional Cash Management Services. Prior to this, he held senior level positions at Dwight Asset Management, where he was Executive Vice President, Head of Liquidity Management and Neuberger Berman (formerly Lehman Brothers Asset Management), where he was Chief Investment Officer, Head of Global Cash Strategies. John is a member of the imoneynet Money Market Advisory Board and Conference Faculty. He is also a frequent presenter at industry conferences such as Association of Financial Professionals events, Government Investment Officers Association and global forums including the American Chamber of Commerce in Singapore. John received the imoneynet Money Fund award in 2002 and imoneynet honorable mention award in John earned a BA from Saint Anselm College, an MBA from Assumption College and holds FINRA Series 7 and 63 licenses. Laura B. Glenn Senior Portfolio Manager, State of Georgia Office of the State Treasurer Laura Glenn is responsible for managing Georgia Fund 1, a stable net asset value fund with over $15.6 billion in assets. With a solid knowledge of investment accounting, she was highly engaged with GASB after the 2a7 reform and provided feedback on what is now GASB pronouncement 79. She also authored the NAST and NASACT Best Practices for Stable NAV LGIPS. Prior to joining the State of Georgia, Ms. Glenn worked as a bond accountant and portfolio manager for SunTrust Banks. She served as President of GIOA from and currently serves on the board as a Member-at-Large. Laura is a graduate of Auburn University where she earned a Bachelor of Science in Accounting. In 2002, Ms. Glenn was awarded a CFA charter by the CFA Institute. 48

49 Important Disclosures This document (the Presentation ) is being provided by RBC Global Asset Management for educational purposes. It is general and has not been tailored for any specific recipient or recipients and is not a solicitation of any offer to buy or sell any security or other financial instrument or to participate in any investment strategy. We are not undertaking to provide impartial investment advice, or to give advice in a fiduciary capacity. This Presentation should not be construed as tax or legal advice and is not intended to cause the recipient to become a fiduciary within the meaning of Section 3(21)(A)(ii) of the Employee Retirement Income Security Act of 1974, as amended, or Section 4975(e)(3)(B) of the Internal Revenue Code of 1986, as amended. While we have a financial interest in a transaction because we earn revenue from the sale of our products and services, we do not receive a fee or other compensation directly from you or your in-scope clients for the provision of investment advice (as opposed to other services) in connection with any such transaction. Past performance is not indicative of future results. There can be no guarantee that any investment strategy discussed in this Presentation will achieve its investment objectives. As with all investment strategies, there is a risk of loss of all or a portion of the amount invested and there is no guarantee that any references to goals, targets, objectives or expectations discussed in the Presentation will be achieved or that the processes will succeed. Any risk management processes discussed refer to efforts to monitor and manage risk, but should not be confused with and does not imply no or low risk. The use of diversification within an investment portfolio does not assure a profit or guarantee against loss in a declining market. No chart, graph, or formula can by itself determine which securities an investor should buy or sell or which strategies should be pursued. This Presentation contains the opinions of RBC Global Asset Management and unless otherwise indicated, all information herein is subject to change without notice. This Presentation may contain information collected from independent third party sources and has not been independently verified for accuracy or completeness by RBC Global Asset Management or its affiliates. This Presentation may not be reproduced in whole or part, and may not be delivered to any other person without the consent of RBC Global Asset Management. Not all products, services or investments described herein are available in all jurisdictions and some are available on a limited basis only, due to local regulatory and legal requirements. RBC Global Asset Management (U.S.) Inc. ( RBC GAM-US ) is a federally registered investment adviser founded in RBC Global Asset Management (RBC GAM) is the asset management division of Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) and comprises the following affiliates, all of which are indirect wholly owned subsidiaries of RBC: RBC Global Asset Management (U.S.) Inc. (RBC GAM-US), RBC Global Asset Management Inc., RBC Global Asset Management (UK) Limited (RBC GAM- UK), BlueBay Asset Management LLP, BlueBay Asset Management USA LLC and the asset management division of RBC Investment Management (Asia) Limited. / Trademark(s) of Royal Bank of Canada. Used under license RBC Global Asset Management (U.S.) Inc. 49