WAYS TO SAVE MONEY THROUGH REFINANCING & INVESTMENTS

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1 WAYS TO SAVE MONEY THROUGH REFINANCING & INVESTMENTS BILL KRUCK & JAMIE DOYLE PASBO 62 ND ANNUAL CONFERENCE AND EXHIBITS, PITTSBURGH March TOPICS OF DISCUSSION Investments What We Are Seeing Building Upon a Prudent Cash & Investment Management Program Considerations for Determining Investment Options Act 10 of 2016 Roadmap for Investing Debt Bond Background High to Low Refunding Debt Restructuring Act 1 Strategies Further Questions/Discussion 2 1

2 WHAT WE ARE SEEING 3 MARKET CONSIDERATIONS Interest Rates Treasury yields remain stabilized at higher levels Longer maturities are rising in response to higher inflation expectations The shorter end of the curve has also moved higher following the December rate hike Fed officials forecast three rate hikes in 2017 Economic Conditions The U.S. experienced moderate GDP growth in 2016 Labor market continues to strengthen Retail sales increases demonstrate Americans optimism about the economy Inflation picking up slowly Uncertainty prevails as a result of President Trump s policies, as well as upcoming elections in Europe 4 2

3 Jan-80 Jan-81 Jan-82 Jan-83 Jan-84 Jan-85 Jan-86 Jan-87 Jan-88 Jan-89 Jan-90 Jan-91 Jan-92 Jan-93 Jan-94 Jan-95 Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 THIRTY YEARS OF DECLINING RATES Treasury Yields are gradually increasing, but still near all-time lows following 30 years of decline 2- & 10-Year U.S. Treasury Notes Yields 2-Year U.S. Treasury Note 10-Year U.S. Treasury Note 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Source: Bloomberg Financial Systems, data as of February 28, AN END TO HISTORICALLY LOW YIELDS? Since the Fed has enacted it s Zero Interest Rate Policy in 2008, yields have remained at historic lows Anticipation of the first hike since 2008 pushed yields higher in 2015 and again late in 2016 Yields remain within the elevated trading range year to date Year U.S. Treasury Note & Fed Funds Target Rate 6.0% 5.0% Fed Funds Target Rate 2-Year U.S. Treasury Note 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% Anticipation of, and the subsequent Fed rate hikes have pushed yields higher 1.0% 0.0% Source: Bloomberg Financial Systems, data as of February 28,

4 OUTLOOK FOR THE FED FUNDS TARGET RATE 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Probability of Future Rate Hikes March 2017 May 2017 Fed Meeting Probability of Hike March 15, % May 3, % June 14, % July 26, % September 20, % November 1, % December 13, % January 31, % Source: Bloomberg Financial Systems, data as of March 6, BUILDING UPON A PRUDENT CASH & INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT PROGRAM 8 4

5 DIFFERENT HORIZONS FOR DIFFERENT SCHOOL FUNDS Understanding the use and overall objective of a fund/asset type is essential in determining a prudent and efficient investment strategy School Investment Time Horizons 1 5 Year 1 10 Year Endowments & Pensions Intermediate 1 3 Year Enhanced Cash Cash Daily Liquidity 1 Yr 3 Yr 5 Yr 10 Yr Duration Bond Proceeds 15 Yr+ 9 FINDING A BALANCE BETWEEN LIQUIDITY AND DURATION Cost of Insufficient Liquidity Delayed payments Additional costs/penalties Bad press Cost of Excess Liquidity Forgone investment income Failure to keep pace with rising costs Bad press Benefits of Cash Flow Analysis Ensures adequate liquidity Potential to increase investment income Amounts available for investment Period of time to hold the investment 10 5

6 Millions, $ IMPORTANCE OF FORECASTING Forecasting is a process of predicting cash flows for the purposes of liquidity management and financial control Better manage changes in fund balances and to meet strategic objectives Helps determine appropriate allocations between liquid and fixed-rate investments Use cash flow forecasting as a basis for determining reasonably expected future cash flow needs and investable balance targets Ability to target a base liquidity or minimum balance cushion Projection examples in practice Interest earnings as part of the annual budget Bi-weekly salary distributions Bond proceeds construction draw schedule 11 CASH FLOW ANALYSIS INFORMS STRATEGY Initial gathering of data: the raw clay Map out month-end, low, or average daily balances Preferably at least 2+ years of most recent balances and cash flow history Cash: overnight investments Historical Month-End Balances Target liquidity cushion based on estimated maximum outflows Liquidity Surplus: 0-1 year investments Total Return Funds: 1-5+ year investments Cash Liquidity Surplus Designated Reserve 0 Aug-14 Nov-14 Feb-15 May-15 Aug-15 Nov-15 Feb

7 TOO MUCH LIQUIDITY = LOST EARNINGS POTENTIAL Historic Returns (January 31, 2007 through January 31, 2017) Index Total Return Total Return Portfolio (Merrill Lynch 1-5 Year U.S. Treasury Index) 2.77% Cash (Merrill Lynch 3 Month Treasury Bill Index) 0.79% Difference % Source: Bloomberg Financial Systems, data as of February 28, CONSIDERATIONS FOR DETERMINING INVESTMENT OPTIONS 14 7

8 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18 Jun-18 Sep-18 Dec-18 Mar-19 Jun-19 Sep-19 Dec-19 RATES ON THE RISE The market currently expects interest rates to rise over the next two years 2.00% 1.75% 1.50% 1.25% 1.00% 0.75% 0.50% Fed Funds Target Rate 0.25% 0.00% Fed Funds Target Rate Source: Bloomberg Financial Systems, data as of February 28, BREAKEVEN ANALYSIS A breakeven analysis allows an investor to evaluate and compare two different maturity options 1.20%?? 6 months 1 year 1.32% What rate would you have to earn in the next 6 months to generate the same income as a 1 year investment today? 16 8

9 BREAKEVEN ANALYSIS (CONT D) 1.20% 1.34% 6 months 1 year 1.32% Using breakeven analysis, you would have to reinvest at a rate of 1.34% for the second half of the year to breakeven and generate the same income as a one-year investment today Math: [1+(1.20 % * 6 months)] X [1+(1.34% * 6 months)] months = 1.32% 17 ACT 10 OF

10 ACT 10 PROVIDES ADDITIONAL OPPORTUNITIES Seeking higher yields is not the only issue: Dwindling supply of permitted investments Banking regulation changes Inconsistency in PA investment codes Lagging best practices of Government Finance Officers Association* ( GFOA ) and most other states Act 10 of 2016 ( Act 10 ) enables, but does not require: Additional investment types for operating funds Unification of the different investment codes Aligns PA local government investment opportunities with most other states Act 10 requires important safeguards: Credit quality and maturity criteria, which we believe are valuable risk management tools High credit quality standards *Source: Relatively short maturity standards 19 ACT 10 PERMITTED INVESTMENTS & RISK LIMITING PROVISIONS Additional investment options will allow school s to more fully diversify their investments. Limiting maturity and requiring high credit ratings helps limit risk. Federal Agency Security Type Prudent Risk Limiting/Management Provisions Risk Limiting Factors Some agencies are fully backed by U.S. Government Other agencies are strongly supported by the Federal Government Rated at least A by at least two NRSROs* Repurchase Agreements Must be collateralized by U.S. Treasury or Federal Agency securities Commercial Paper Bankers Acceptances Negotiable CD s Rated in top short-term category by at least two NRSROs* Maximum maturity of 270 days Rated in top short-term category by at least two NRSROs* Maximum maturity of 180 days Insured Bank Deposit Reciprocal All deposits are 100% FDIC-insured. *NRSROs Nationally Recognized Statistical Ratings Organizations (for example, S&P, Moody s, Fitch) For CD s with maturities less than one year, must be rated in top short-term category by at least two NRSROs* For CD s with maturities greater than a year, must be rated at least A by at least two NRSROs* Maximum maturity of three years or less 20 10

11 Yield UTILIZE PRIME FUNDS FOR OVERNIGHT INVESTMENTS A comparison between historic gross yields on imoneynet s 50th Percentile Government Institutional and Prime Institutional funds is depicted in the graph below. The average difference between the imoneynet 50th Percentile Government and Prime funds over the prior 3 year period ending December 31, 2016 is 16 basis points (0.16%). 1.00% Difference in Gross Yields - Government vs. Prime Funds 0.80% 0.60% 0.40% 0.20% 0.00% imoneynet 50th Percentile - Government imoneynet 50th Percentile - Prime Source: As measured by the average of the gross rate advantage of the 50 th percentile of the imoneynet Fund Rankings for Prime Funds over the 50 th percentile of the imoneynet Fund Rankings for Government Funds for the five years ended December 31, The imoneynet Prime Institutional Average includes 109 highly rated Prime funds, and the imoneynet Government Institutional Average includes 322 highly rated Government funds. 21 PRIME SECURITIES OFFER SIGNIFICANT VALUE Yields on Commercial Paper and Negotiable CD s remain attractive alternatives to Treasury Bills and short-term Agencies where yields are constrained by Fed policy. CP/CD rates vary significantly by issuer. 1.60% 1.40% 1.20% 1.00% 0.80% 0.60% 0.40% 0.20% 0.00% Current Money Market Yield Curve Maturity in Months Source: Bloomberg, as of February 28, 2017, PFMAM. Information on CD/CP ranges are estimates based on independently compiled data, are for general information purposes only, and are not intended to provide specific advice or specific recommendations

12 SAMPLE INVESTMENT PORTFOLIO COMPARISON Non Act 10 Act 10 Investment Option Overnight (S&P AAA Government Fund) Millions Invested Sample Gross Yield* Annualized Gross Projected Earnings $ % $49, day FDIC CD $ % $7, day FDIC CD $ % $22, day FDIC CD $ % $20, day FDIC CD $ % $24,800 TOTAL $ % $124,450 Sector Allocation Investment Option Overnight (S&P AAA Prime) Millions Invested Sample Gross Yield* Annualized Gross Projected Earnings $ % $62, day CP $ % $9, day CP $ % $30, day CP $ % $26, day Negotiable CD $ % $28,400 TOTAL $ % $157,327 Sector Allocation FDIC CD 50% Government Fund 50% CP 37% Prime Fund 50% Negotiable CD 13% 23 Source: Bloomberg, as of March 3, 2017, PFMAM. Information on CD/CP ranges are estimates based on independently compiled data, are for general information purposes only, and are not intended to provide specific advice or specific recommendations. ACCESSING PRIME SECURITIES While adding commercial paper and negotiable CD allocations to your School's portfolio could add value, properly diversifying may be a challenge These prime securities are typically sold in large dollar lots, which could limit the accessibility for smaller portfolios PFMAM recommends an allocation limit per issuer of no more than 5% and a 30% max sector allocation for all direct investments in these securities Investing in an investment pool, liquid or fixed-rate, fixed-term, that invests in these securities could be a more efficient and cost effective way to add these security types to your School s investments A pool of prime securities would: Be large enough to fully diversify investments among different issuers in the market, in turn limiting the exposure to any one issuer Invest the majority of assets in these security types, therefore having the greater earnings potential Negotiable CD s are not bank deposits, rather they are negotiable instruments (in other words, securities), and therefore do not require collateralization 24 12

13 ROADMAP FOR INVESTING 25 IS IT TOO GOOD TO BE TRUE? Guaranteed returns Reluctance to provide documentation Teaser rates Rates well above comparables Limited or no access to funds Unfamiliar product name or company name 26 13

14 WRAP UP: INVESTMENT ADVICE Do s Stick to the basics Safety, Liquidity, then Yield Diversification Develop a long-term plan Devote the time to develop an investment strategy Follow your investment policy Make sure that your broker and/or investment advisor knows and understands your policies and objectives Review your policies and practices periodically Don t Invest beyond your cash flow requirements Expect higher returns without higher risks Invest in securities you can t explain 27 IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES This material is based on information obtained from sources generally believed to be reliable and available to the public, however PFM Asset Management LLC cannot guarantee its accuracy, completeness or suitability. This material is for general information purposes only and is not intended to provide specific advice or a specific recommendation. All statements as to what will or may happen under certain circumstances are based on assumptions, some but not all of which are noted in the presentation. Assumptions may or may not be proven correct as actual events occur, and results may depend on events outside of your or our control. Changes in assumptions may have a material effect on results. Past performance does not necessarily reflect and is not a guaranty of future results. The information contained in this presentation is not an offer to purchase or sell any securities. The views expressed within this material constitute the perspective and judgment of PFMAM at the time of distribution and are subject to change. Any forecast, projection, or prediction of the market, the economy, economic trends, and equity or fixed-income markets are based upon current opinion as of the date if issue, and are also subject to change. Opinions and data presented are not necessarily indicative of future events or expected performance. Information contained herein is based on data obtained from recognized statistical services, issuer reports or communications, or other sources, believed to be reliable. No representation is made as to its accuracy or completeness. This information is for institutional investor use only, not for further distribution to retail investors, and does not represent an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any fund or other security. Investors should consider the investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses before investing in any of the Trust s portfolios. This and other information about the Trust s portfolios is available in the current Information Statement, which should be read carefully before investing. A copy of the Information Statement may be obtained by calling or is available on the Trust s website at While the PLGIT, PLGIT/ARM and PLGIT/PRIME portfolios seek to maintain a stable net asset value of $1.00 per share and the PLGIT/TERM portfolio seeks to achieve a net asset value of $1.00 per share at its stated maturity, it is possible to lose money investing in the Trust. An investment in the Trust is not insured or guaranteed by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation or any other government agency. Shares of the Trust s portfolios are distributed by PFM Fund Distributors, Inc., member Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA) ( and Securities Investor Protection Corporation (SIPC) ( PFM Fund Distributors, Inc. is a wholly owned subsidiary of PFM Asset Management LLC. A description of the PLGIT CD Purchase Program is contained in the PLGIT Information Statement. The Information Statement contains important information and should be read carefully before investing. Investors may purchase Certificates of Deposit through the PLGIT CD Purchase Program only by executing an investment advisory agreement with the Program s Investment Adviser, PFM Asset Management LLC. SM PLGIT, PLGIT-Class Shares, PLGIT/PLUS-Class Shares, PLGIT/I-Class Shares, PLGIT/TERM, PLGIT-CD, PLGIT/ARM, PLGIT/PRIME, PLGIT/SAM, and PLGIT-CAP are service marks of the Pennsylvania Local Government Investment Trust

15 BOND BACKGROUND 29 LONG TERM FIXED INTEREST RATE ENVIRONMENT 5.000% 4.500% 4.000% 3.500% 3.000% 2.500% 2.000% 1.500% 1.000% 1/31/2007 1/31/2008 1/31/2009 1/31/2010 1/31/2011 1/31/2012 1/31/2013 1/31/2014 1/31/2015 1/31/2016 1/31/

16 VARIABLE INTEREST RATE ENVIRONMENT Variable Rate Indices (SIFMA & 1-Month LIBOR) /31/07 01/31/08 01/31/09 01/31/10 01/31/11 01/31/12 01/31/13 01/31/14 01/31/15 01/31/16 01/31/17 1-Month LIBOR SIFMA 31 TYPICAL CHARACTERISTICS OF SCHOOL DISTRICT DEBT School districts and local governments typically issue debt in form of municipal bonds Typically issued for new money or refunding purposes Most frequently issued on a tax-exempt basis Can be fixed or variable rate Typically has final maturities up to 30 years Typically issued with a general obligation pledge (full faith, credit and taxing power) Issued by the School District itself, although sometimes can be issued through a conduit authority (State Public School Building Authority or other local authority) 32 16

17 HIGH TO LOW REFUNDING 33 REFUNDING EXISTING DEBT Replacing existing higher interest rates with new lower interest rates can potentially save thousands Issuers could move up payment dates within same fiscal year to achieve additional interest rate savings Existing High Interest Rate New Low Interest Rate $$$ SAVINGS!!! XYZ AUTHORITY EXISTING DEBT XYZ AUTHORITY NEW REFINANCING DEBT SERIES OF 2009 SERIES OF Annual Interest Fiscal Year Interest Fiscal Year Debt Service Date Principal Rate Interest Debt Service Date Principal Rate Interest Debt Service Savings 3/15/ , , ,811 3/15/ ,182 9/15/ ,761 9/15/ ,659 3/15/ , , ,523 3/15/ , , ,570 11,293 9/15/ ,443 9/15/ ,765 3/15/ , , ,885 3/15/ , , ,530 8,157 9/15/ ,910 9/15/ ,800 3/15/ , , ,820 3/15/ , , ,600 8,039 9/15/ ,510 9/15/ ,150 3/15/ , , ,020 3/15/ , , ,300 10,219 9/15/ ,630 9/15/ ,400 3/15/2019 1,035, ,630 1,072,260 3/15/2019 1,040, ,400 1,060,800 9,992 TOTALS 3,625, ,319 4,083,319 TOTALS 3,690, ,800 3,898, ,

18 REFUNDING EXISTING DEBT PROPORTIONAL SAVINGS LEVEL SAVINGS LEVEL SAVINGS UPFRONT SAVINGS Prior Debt Service Prior Debt Service Debt Service Savings Savings Debt Service Savings Debt Service Refunding Debt Service Refunding Debt Service Fiscal Year Ending May utilize savings to reduce millage or to make debt service on new money projects more affordable Fiscal Year Ending Need to manage millage in budget at a higher rate Can use refunding savings for one-time uses, i.e., capital projects. 35 CREDIT RATINGS Key metrics for school district credit include: Fund Balance Surplus/Deficit Cash on Hand Pension Liability Area Demographics and Tax Base The majority of bond issues in the capital markets have credit ratings from one or more of the three major credit rating agencies: Standard & Poor s, Moody s or Fitch. PASBO 62ND ANNUAL CONFERENCE AND EXHIBITS, PITTSBURGH Moody's Description of Ratings Aaa Strongest Investment Grade Aa1/Aa2/Aa3 Very Strong A1/A2/A3 Above-Average Baa1/Baa2/Baa3 Average Ba1/Ba2/Ba3 Below-Average B1/B2/B3 Weak Below Investment Caa1/Caa2/Caa3 Very Weak Grade Ca Extremely Weak C Weakest S&P Description of Ratings AAA Strongest Investment Grade AA+/AA/AA- Very Strong A+/A/A- Above-Average BBB+/BBB/BBB- Average BB+/BB/BB- Below-Average B+/B/B- Weak Below Investment CCC+/CCC/CCC-Very Weak Grade CC Extremely Weak C Weakest March

19 DUAL TRACK APPROACH TO FINANCING Bond issue or bank loan Dual Track can be pursued to ensure greatest flexibility Issue RFP for a bank loan while developing and preparing for a bond issue Compare bank loan RFP results to current market bond rates and pool loan Little to no cost to issue bank loan RFP for comparison purposes Bond Issue Pros Fixed rates for the entire term Traditionally lower interest rates No future interest rate risk Cons Higher costs of issuance Higher administrative costs As short as a 5-year call feature Bank Loan Lower costs of issuance Less administrative requirements (credit ratings, legal docs, etc.) Often prepayable at anytime Future variable rate resets Depository relationship may be required May have restrictive covenants PASBO 62ND ANNUAL CONFERENCE AND EXHIBITS, PITTSBURGH 37 PARAMETERS RESOLUTIONS Parameters Resolutions provide the greatest amount of flexibility for the financing team to price bonds in volatile market conditions: Avoids coordination with scheduled board meetings The resolution establishes parameters, or not to exceed boundaries, under which the ultimate financing must fall: Maximum principal amount in aggregate Maximum final maturity Maximum principal amount per annual maturity Maximum interest rate Minimum net savings target (for refundings) Ultimate approval immediately after pricing will be required from Board President, Vice President, and/or Administration via an addendum There is no guarantee that the incurrence of debt under current state law will grandfather it from any future change in legislation

20 DEBT RESTRUCTURING 39 DEBT RESTRUCTURING Existing debt can also be moved and restructured in order to create savings for the Issuer. By restructuring existing debt, issuers can also create debt scenarios that better match their strategic plans. (ex. level or upfront) New Debt Structure XYZ Area School District Series 2015 Settle 1/10/2015 Series 2010 Dated 1/10/2015 Date Principal Coupon Yield Proposed Existing Local Effort Local Effort Savings Old Debt Structure 3/1/ , , , , /1/ , /1/ , , , /1/ , /1/ , , , /1/ , /1/ , , , /1/ , /1/ , , , /1/ , /1/ , , , /1/2020 3,195, /1/2021 2,462, , ,873, /1/2021 3/1/ , , Totals 4,950,000 4,256, ,316, ,

21 ACT 1 STRATEGIES 41 UNGRANDFATHERED MILLAGE STRATEGIES 1. Fit millage impact under Act 1 Allowable Index Increase (the Index ) Increase up to the Index every year starting in to phase in ungrandfathered millage gradually Seek exceptions and increase beyond the Index if possible 2. Use estimated interest earnings from construction fund toward project Increase up to the Index every year starting in to phase in ungrandfathered millage gradually 3. Contribute cash or refunding savings towards Project Either temporarily borrow or permanently contribute a portion of existing reserves to help phase in borrowing capacity and millage impact 42 21

22 UNGRANDFATHERED MILLAGE STRATEGIES 4. Break borrowing into smaller portions The District will have the ability to phase debt service into the budget more slowly $10,000,000 per calendar will allow for bank qualified borrowings (i.e. lower interest rates) and 5 year call features 5. Indirect Cost Savings Utilize potential operational or capital expenditure savings to reduce millage impact 6. Consider wrap around payment structure for borrowing(s) 7. Capitalize Interest The use of bond proceeds to phase the millage impact into the budget gradually Increases the size of the bond issue 43 UNGRANDFATHERED MILLAGE STRATEGIES 8. Debt Restructuring Restructure a portion of outstanding debt to create capacity for new ungrandfathered debt 9. Consider using Capital Appreciation Bonds to reduce millage impact Tends to increase interest expense 10. Debt Act Referendum (Electoral Debt) Voters vote on debt service millage for specific project 11. Act 1 Referendum Voters vote on property tax increase beyond the Index not specific project 44 22