The Bespoke Death By Amazon Indices
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1 The Bespoke Death By Amazon Indices On the following pages, we update the performance figures for the Bespoke Death By Amazon Indices. We include performance updates for both our standard Death By Amazon indices which include retailers we view as vulnerable to competition from e-commerce, as well as our Amazon Survivors indices of companies which look more capable of dealing with the threat from online shopping. As shown in the chart below, stocks in our market cap-weighted Death By Amazon index have retreated along with the overall market. Given the high weighting for Wal-Mart (WMT) in the market cap -weighted Death By Amazon index, the stock s largest daily decline in more than 3 decades this past week helped push the index to new lows while the rest of the market is off those levels. With a much lower weighting for Wal-Mart, the equal-weight index has performed better recently. Remarkably over the past year, only three stocks in the index have out-performed Amazon: CONN, FIVE, and OLLI. Every other stock has trailed the e-commerce giant. Amazon has continued to act as a market leader, with the firm s new all-time highs in the wake of the broad pullback in equities over the past few weeks cited as a key factor for market confidence by some analysts. Remarkably, while next 12 month P/E and EV/EBITDA valuations have risen quite a lot of late, neither is even close to the most aggressive valuations of the company over recent years. Bespoke publishes the Death By Amazon Indices as a way to track performance of the companies most affected by the rise of AMZN. Companies included must be direct retailers with a limited online presence (or core business based on physical retailing locations), a member of either the Retail industry of the S&P 15 Index or a member of the S&P Retail Select Index, and rely on third party brands. We view these attributes as the best expression of AMZN s threat to traditional retail. The index is designed as both a performance benchmark and idea generation tool for our clients. Indices are published monthly with market cap weightings and equal weightings. We also discuss our Amazon Survivors Indices starting on page four. Bespoke "Death By Amazon" Index: Cumulative Returns (%) Bespoke "Death By Amazon" Index: +42.1% S&P 15: +.7% Page 1 of 6 Copyright 18, Bespoke Investment Group, LLC. Bespoke Investment Group, LLC believes all information contained in this report to be accurate, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information in this report or any opinions expressed constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities.
2 Bespoke "Death By Amazon" Equal Weight Index: Cumulative Returns (%) Bespoke "Death By Amazon" Equal Weight Index: +36.8% S&P 15: +.7% Outperformance of AMZN vs Bespoke "Death By Amazon" Equal-Weight Index Standard Bespoke "Death By Amazon" Indices Equal Weight Inception 2/6/12 Inception 2/6/12 Weighting Market Cap Weighting Equal Equity Type Large Cap, Mid Cap, Small Equity Type Large Cap, Mid Cap, Small Constituents 61 Constituents 61 Avg Market Cap $13.5 bn as of 2/22/18 Avg Market Cap $13.5 bn as of 2/22/18 Sector Consumer Discretionary Sector Consumer Discretionary Industry Group Retail Industry Group Retail Attributes Consumer retail, Reliance on 3rd party brands, Limited online presence Attributes Consumer retail, Reliance on 3rd party brands, Limited online presence Page 2 of 6
3 Bespoke "Death By Amazon" Indices Components Performance (%) Market Cap Current Vs Bespoke "Death By Amazon" Correlation Ticker Name Price (mln $) Weight 1 Year Return Standard Index Eql Wgt Index to AMZN AAN Aaron's 44. 3, % ASNA Ascena Retail % BBBY Bed Bath & Beyond , % BBY Best Buy 72.37, % BGFV Big 5 Sporting % BIG Big Lots , % BKE The Buckle , % BKS Barnes & Noble % BNED Barnes & Noble Ed % BURL Burlington Stores , % CAL Caleres , % CONN Conn's % COST Costco Wholesale , % CVS CVS Caremark , % DDS Dillard's 7. 2, % DG Dollar General , % DKS Dick's Sporting , % DLTR Dollar Tree , % DSW DSW , % FINL Finish Line % FIVE Five Below , % FL Foot Locker , % FRAN Francesca's % FRED Fred's % GCO Genesco % GME Gamestop , % GNC GNC Holdings % HIBB Hibbett Sports % HVT Haverty Furniture % IMKTA Ingles Markets % JCP J.C. Penney , % JWN Nordstrom , % KIRK Kirkland's % KR Kroger , % KSS Kohl's 65.14, % M Macy's , % MIK Michaels , % ODP Office Depot 3.8 1, % OLLI Ollie's Bargain 58. 3, % PSMT PriceSmart , % RAD Rite Aid , % ROST Ross Stores , % SBH Sally Beauty , % SCVL Shoe Carnival % SFM Sporuts , % SFS Smart & Final % SHLD Sears Holdings % SMRT Stein Mart % SSI Stage Stores % SVU Supervalu % TGT Target , % TJX TJ Maxx , % TLRD Tailored Brands , % TUES Tuesday Morning % ULTA Ulta Beauty , % VSI Vitamin Shoppe % WBA Walgreen , % WMK Weis Markets 38. 1, % WMT Wal-Mart , % WSM Williams-Sonoma , % ZUMZ Zumiez % AMZN Amazon ,955.5 n/a n/a Page 3 of 6
4 Our Amazon Survivors indices are meant to capture retail stocks that we believe stand a good chance of withstanding pressure from Amazon: those with their own brands, markets where Amazon is not as much of a competitive threat such as auto-related products, or specialty stores that aren t categories where Amazon can compete effectively. Below we show the returns versus those of the S&P 15 since index inception. On page 5, we show index statistics; we also show the equal-weight version of the index, which has outperformed the market cap weighted index quite significantly. On page six we include a full list of index members. 35 Bespoke "Amazon Survivors" Market Cap Index: Cumulative Returns (%) 25 Bespoke "Amazon Survivors" Index: +3% S&P 15: +24.2% Page 4 of 6
5 Standard Equal Weight Inception 7/29/16 Inception 7/29/16 Weighting Market Cap Weighting Equal Equity Type Large Cap, Mid Cap, Small Equity Type Large Cap, Mid Cap, Small Constituents 46 Constituents 46 Avg Market Cap $11. bn as of 2/22/18 Avg Market Cap $11. bn as of 2/22/18 Sector Consumer Discretionary Sector Consumer Discretionary Industry Group Retail Industry Group Retail Attributes Specialty retail, retail secure from Amazon competition, own-brand retail Attributes Specialty retail, retail secure from Amazon competition, own-brand retail Bespoke "Amazon Survivors" Equal Weight Index: Cumulative Returns (%) Bespoke "Amazon Survivors" Equal Weight Index: +.1% S&P 15: +24.2% Bespoke "Amazon Survivors" Equal Weight Index: AMZN Relative Performance (%) Page 5 of 6
6 Bespoke "Amazon Survivors" Indices Components Performance (%) Market Cap Current Vs Bespoke "Amazon Survivors" Correlation Ticker Name Price (mm $) Weight 1 Year Return Standard Index Eql Wgt Index to AMZN AAP Advance Auto Parts , % ABG Asbury Automotive , % AEO American Eagle , % AN AutoNation ,76..39% ANF Abercrombie & Fitch , % AZO AutoZone , % CASY Casey's General Stores , % CATO Cato % CHS Chico's , % CORE Core-Mark % CWH Camping World 4.8 3, % ETSY Etsy , % EXPR Express % FTD FTD % GES Guess? ,219..% GPC Genuine Parts , % GPI Group 1 Automotive 75. 1, % GPS Gap , % GRPN Groupon , % HD Home Depot , % HZO MarineMax % KMX CarMax , % LAD Lithia Motors 1.4 2, % LB L Brands , % LKQ LKQ , % LL Lumber Liquidators % LOW Lowe's , % MNRO Monro , % MUSA Murphy USA , % ORLY O'Reilly Automotive , % PAG Penske Automotive , % PETS PetMed Express % PLCE Children's Place , % POOL Pool , % RCII Rent-A-Center % RH Restoration Hardware , % SAH Sonic Automotive % SNBR Select Comfort , % SFLY Shutterfly , % SIG Signet Jewelers , % TIF Tiffany , % TRIP TripAdvisor , % TSCO Tractor Supply , % TTS Tile Shop % URBN Urban Outfitters , % W Wayfair , % AMZN Amazon ,63.76 n/a n/a Page 6 of 6
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