Prepared by Jaime Johnson and Robert Miner Tuesday, Sept. 1, 2015

Transcription

1 Prepared by Jaime Johnson and Robert Miner Tuesday, Sept. 1, 2015 Today s Video Update provides more detail of the current position and probable future trends and trade strategies. Weekly / Daily Charts and Comments were included with Saturday s report which is available from the archive section on the subscribers page. Next scheduled written report: Thursday, Sept. 3 Published by Dynamic Traders Group, Inc, DynamicTraders.com, dt@dynamictraders.com, The DT Stock and ETF Report is issued Tuesday, Thursday and Saturday. Reports are generally issued by 8PM, EST. Reports are issued 48 weeks per year. There is one week off per calendar quarter., Tucson, AZ. (). Trading stocks is risky. Past performance is no guarantee of future performance. Trade and invest at your own risk. This information is supplied for the paid subscriber and may not be copied or distributed in any manner. Data courtesy of Worden Brothers (

2 Trade Strategies (9/1/15) Stock Indexes (CLICK HERE to go to the Stock Index Pages) Bear All of the stock indexes made daily DLB Momentum BearRevs which confirms the W.4 corrective highs should be complete and the net trend should be down over at least the next several days, eventually to below the Aug. low. With the 240m DLB momentums OS, tomorrow is likely to be sideways to up before the Bear trend continues, but keep in mind, the main trend is down and any surprises should be on the downside. Bear following the m momentum reaching OB or BearRev above the mid-line. Interest Rates (Bonds/Notes) (CLICK HERE to go to the Interest Rates Pages) Today s daily DLB momentum BullRev confirms the daily low should be complete. Bull following the 240m momentum OS or BullRev from below the mid-line. Precious Metals (CLICK HERE to go to the Precious Metals Pages) The daily momentums are now Bull suggesting last week completed at least a daily low and the net trend should be sideways to up over the next several days. However, we 240m momentums OB or Bear, tomorrow is likely to be sideways to down before the bull trend continues. Bull following the 240m momentum OS or BullRevs. Disclaimer: Our analysis and recommendations are based strictly on the technical position of the futures. The inevitable and possibly required disclaimer for market advisory reports. HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS & ACTUAL RESULTS ACHIEVED BY A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM. ONE LIMITATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK & NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS THAT CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM THAT CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS Page 2

3 ES (240m) Weekly Chart Updated: Aug. 29 Daily Chart updated: Aug. 29 Probable Net Trend for the Next Few Trading Days Bear The daily DLB Momentum BearRev confirms the W.4 corrective high should be complete and the net trend should be down over at least the next several days, eventually to below the Aug. low. With the 240m DLB momentums OS, tomorrow is likely to be sideways to up before the Bear trend continues, but keep in mind, the main trend is down and any surprises should be on the downside. SP Trade Strategy Bear following the m momentum reaching OB or BearRev above the mid-line. Page 3

4 NQ (240m) Weekly Chart Updated: Aug. 29 Daily Chart updated: Aug. 29 Probable Net Trend for the Next Few Trading Days Bear The daily DLB Momentum BearRev confirms the W.4 corrective high should be complete and the net trend should be down over at least the next several days, eventually to below the Aug. low. With the 240m DLB momentums OS, tomorrow is likely to be sideways to up before the Bear trend continues, but keep in mind, the main trend is down and any surprises should be on the downside. NQ Trade Strategy Bear following the m momentum reaching OB or BearRev above the mid-line. Page 4

5 YM (Daily) Weekly Chart Updated: Aug. 29 Daily Chart updated: Aug. 29 Probable Net Trend for the Next Few Trading Days Bear The daily DLB Momentum BearRev confirms the daily high should be complete and the net trend should be down over at least the next several days, eventually to below the Aug. low. With the 240m DLB momentums OS, tomorrow is likely to be sideways to up before the Bear trend continues, but keep in mind, the main trend is down and any surprises should be on the downside. YM Trade Strategy Bear following the m momentum reaching OB or BearRev above the mid-line. Page 5

6 Notes (240m) Weekly Chart Updated: Aug. 29 Daily Chart updated: Aug. 29 Probable Net Trend for the Next Few Days Bull following today s daily DLB momentum BullRev. Notes Trade Strategy Bull following the 240m momentum OS or BullRev from below the mid-line. Page 6

7 Bonds (Daily) Weekly Chart Updated: Aug. 29 Daily Chart updated: Aug. 29 Bonds are in a similar position as notes. Probable Net Trend for the Next Few Days Bull following today s daily DLB momentum BullRev. Bonds Trade Strategy Bull following the 240m momentum OS or BullRev from below the mid-line. Page 7

8 Gold (240m) Weekly Chart Updated: Aug. 29 Daily Chart updated: Aug. 29 With weekly and daily momentums Bull and last week s low in the 50%-61.8% retracement range, the assumption is the net trend is bull and any declines should be corrections in a higher time frame Bull trend. Probable Net Trend for the Next Few Days Bull The daily momentums are now Bull suggesting last week completed at least a daily low and the net trend should be sideways to up over the next several days. However, we 240m momentums OB or Bear, tomorrow is likely to be sideways to down before the bull trend continues. Gold Trade Strategy Bull following the 240m momentum OS or BullRevs. Page 8

9 Silver (240m) Weekly Chart Updated: Aug. 29 Daily Chart Updated: Aug. 29 Probable Net Trend for the Next Few Days Bull With the daily momentums now Bull suggesting last week completed a corrective low. Silver Trade Strategy Bull following the 240m momentum OS or BullRevs. Page 9

10 Dual Time Frame Momentum Positions and 4 Wk ROC The following tables show the weekly and daily momentum positions and the 4 Wk ROC of the markets that meet the scan criteria. Index and Scan Comments With the S&P weekly DTosc Bear and the 8 daily DTosc BearRev, Aug. 28 is very likely a W.c:4 high of a five-wave decline off the Aug. 10 high. If this is the case, the net trend should be sideways to down for several trading days eventually to below Aug. 24 low. All markets in the charts below have Bear 13 weekly momentums and a weaker 4 wk ROC (+1%) than the S&P. Top component stocks have a weaker 4 wk ROC (+1%) than both the S&P and their sector ETF 4 wk ROC. All but one of the markets below have Bear 8 daily DToscs signaling there should be a broad market decline probably lasting for several trading days. Short positions may be considered in the markets below that have Bear 8 daily DToscs. There are two featured markets in the Featured Markets Section that are ready for short trade set-ups. Group: ETF Sector Portfolio: ETF (Indexes) Scan Template: 13_8_50%_4WK Date of Daily Scan:9/1/2015 Date of Weekly Scan:8/28/2015 Symbol Weekly Daily ROC 1 Trade Direction Group STD: SPY Bear Bear -5.30% BearRev Portfolio STD: SPY Bear Bear -5.30% BearRev IWB Bear Bear -5.30% BearRev IWF Bear Bear -5.00% BearRev QQQ Bear Bear -5.70% BearRev Page 10

11 Group: ETF Sector Portfolio: ETF (Sectors) Scan Template: 13_8_50%_4WK Date of Daily Scan:9/1/2015 Date of Weekly Scan:8/28/2015 Symbol Weekly Daily ROC 1 Trade Direction Group STD: SPY Bear Bear -5.30% BearRev Portfolio STD: SPY Bear Bear -5.30% BearRev IGN Bear Bear -6.40% BearRev IYK Bear Bear -4.40% BearRev PPH Bear Bear -7.00% BearRev RTH Bear Bear -4.70% BearRev XLF Bear Bear -6.30% BearRev XLK Bear Bear -4.70% BearRev XLP Bear Bear -5.30% BearRev XLY Bear Bear -5.80% BearRev Group: ETF Sector Portfolio: ETF IGN (Net) Scan Template: 13_8_50%_4WK Date of Daily Scan:9/1/2015 Date of Weekly Scan:8/28/2015 Symbol Weekly Daily ROC 1 Trade Direction Group STD: SPY Bear Bear -5.30% BearRev Portfolio STD: IGN Bear Bear -6.40% BearRev CSCO Bear Bear -8.50% BearRev HRS Bear Bear -6.50% BearRev JNPR Bear Bear -8.60% BearRev Page 11

12 Group: ETF Sector Portfolio: ETF IYK (US Cons) Scan Template: 13_8_50%_4WK Date of Daily Scan:9/1/2015 Date of Weekly Scan:8/28/2015 Symbol Weekly Daily ROC 1 Trade Direction Group STD: SPY Bear Bear -5.30% BearRev Portfolio STD: IYK Bear Bear -4.40% BearRev CL Bear Bear -6.90% BearRev PM Bear Bear -6.10% BearRev KHC Bear Bear -6.00% BearRev KO Bear Bear -4.00% BearRev MDLZ Bear Bear -5.20% BearRev PG Bear Bear -7.20% BearRev F Bear BullOB -7.30% Flat Group: ETF Sector Portfolio: ETF PPH (Pharm) Scan Template: 13_8_50%_4WK Date of Daily Scan:9/1/2015 Date of Weekly Scan:8/28/2015 Symbol Weekly Daily ROC 1 Trade Direction Group STD: SPY Bear Bear -5.30% BearRev Portfolio STD: PPH Bear Bear -7.00% BearRev AGN Bear Bear -7.00% BearRev PFE Bear Bear -9.40% BearRev SNY Bear Bear -8.70% BearRev VRX Bear Bear -8.30% BearRev Page 12

13 Group: ETF Sector Portfolio: ETF RTH (Retail) Scan Template: 13_8_50%_4WK Date of Daily Scan:9/1/2015 Date of Weekly Scan:8/28/2015 Symbol Weekly Daily ROC 1 Trade Direction Group STD: SPY Bear Bear -5.30% BearRev Portfolio STD: RTH Bear Bear -4.70% BearRev COST Bear Bear -3.70% BearRev CVS Bear Bear -7.40% BearRev WBA Bear Bear -9.50% BearRev WMT Bear Bear -9.80% BearRev Group: ETF Sector Portfolio: ETF XLF (Financial) Scan Template: 13_8_50%_4WK Date of Daily Scan:9/1/2015 Date of Weekly Scan:8/28/2015 Symbol Weekly Daily ROC 1 Trade Direction Group STD: SPY Bear Bear -5.30% BearRev Portfolio STD: XLF Bear Bear -6.30% BearRev BAC Bear Bear -8.50% BearRev C Bear Bear -8.90% BearRev USB Bear Bear -5.80% BearRev WFC Bear Bear -7.50% BearRev Page 13

14 Group: ETF Sector Portfolio: ETF XLK (Tech) Scan Template: 13_8_50%_4WK Date of Daily Scan:9/1/2015 Date of Weekly Scan:8/28/2015 Symbol Weekly Daily ROC 1 Trade Direction Group STD: SPY Bear Bear -5.30% BearRev Portfolio STD: XLK Bear Bear -4.70% BearRev CSCO Bear Bear -8.50% BearRev MSFT Bear Bear -5.90% BearRev V Bear Bear -3.80% BearRev Group: ETF Sector Portfolio: ETF XLP (Con Staples) Scan Template: 13_8_50%_4WK Date of Daily Scan:9/1/2015 Date of Weekly Scan:8/28/2015 Symbol Weekly Daily ROC 1 Trade Direction Group STD: SPY Bear Bear -5.30% BearRev Portfolio STD: XLP Bear Bear -5.30% BearRev CVS Bear Bear -7.40% BearRev MDLZ Bear Bear -5.20% BearRev PG Bear Bear -7.20% BearRev PM Bear Bear -6.10% BearRev WBA Bear Bear -9.50% BearRev WMT Bear Bear -9.80% BearRev Page 14

15 Group: ETF Sector Portfolio: ETF XLY (Con Disc) Scan Template: 13_8_50%_4WK Date of Daily Scan:9/1/2015 Date of Weekly Scan:8/28/2015 Symbol Weekly Daily ROC 1 Trade Direction Group STD: SPY Bear Bear -5.30% BearRev Portfolio STD: XLY Bear Bear -5.80% BearRev CMCSA Bear Bear -9.00% BearRev DIS Bear Bear % BearRev TWX Bear Bear % BearRev Bear Reversal Table There were many daily DTosc BearRevs today (none yesterday) further suggessting a broad market decline should follow in the days ahead. Daily Bull and Bear Reversals Only Date of Daily Scan: 9/1/2015 Portfolio Symbol Bull/Bear Rev ETF (Indexes) IWB BearRev ETF (Indexes) IWF BearRev ETF (Indexes) QQQ BearRev ETF (Sectors) SPY BearRev ETF (Sectors) IGN BearRev ETF (Sectors) IYK BearRev ETF (Sectors) PPH BearRev ETF (Sectors) RTH BearRev ETF (Sectors) XLF BearRev ETF (Sectors) XLK BearRev ETF (Sectors) XLP BearRev ETF (Sectors) XLY BearRev ETF IGN (Net) CSCO BearRev ETF IGN (Net) HRS BearRev ETF IGN (Net) JNPR BearRev ETF IYK (US Cons) CL BearRev Page 15

16 ETF IYK (US Cons) PM BearRev ETF IYK (US Cons) KHC BearRev ETF IYK (US Cons) KO BearRev ETF IYK (US Cons) MDLZ BearRev ETF IYK (US Cons) PG BearRev ETF PPH (Pharm) AGN BearRev ETF PPH (Pharm) PFE BearRev ETF PPH (Pharm) SNY BearRev ETF PPH (Pharm) VRX BearRev ETF RTH (Retail) COST BearRev ETF RTH (Retail) CVS BearRev ETF RTH (Retail) WBA BearRev ETF RTH (Retail) WMT BearRev ETF XLF (Financial) BAC BearRev ETF XLF (Financial) C BearRev ETF XLF (Financial) USB BearRev ETF XLF (Financial) WFC BearRev ETF XLK (Tech) CSCO BearRev ETF XLK (Tech) MSFT BearRev ETF XLK (Tech) V BearRev ETF XLP (Con Staples) CVS BearRev ETF XLP (Con Staples) MDLZ BearRev ETF XLP (Con Staples) PG BearRev ETF XLP (Con Staples) PM BearRev ETF XLP (Con Staples) WBA BearRev ETF XLP (Con Staples) WMT BearRev ETF XLY (Con Disc) CMCSA BearRev ETF XLY (Con Disc) DIS BearRev ETF XLY (Con Disc) TWX BearRev Continued on the next page. Page 16

17 Featured Markets The markets below are relatively weak compared to the S&P and have Bear 8 and 13 weekly DToscs and Bear 8 daily DToscs and have made potential corrective highs at or near retracement resistance. They are ready for immediate short trade set-ups. CL (ETF IYK:IShares U.S. Consumer) Trade Strategy Short on a Sell-Stop, one tick below today's low. Place the initial protective Buy-Stop one tick above the Aug. 28 high at Continued on the next page. Page 17

18 WMT (ETF RTH:HOLDRs Retail) Trade Strategy Short on a Sell-Stop, one tick below today's low. Place the initial protective Buy-Stop one tick above the Aug. 27 high at Gold and XAU Stocks General Trade Strategies With the fast lines of Gold and XAU's 8 weekly DToscs in the OB zone, the immediate upside should be limited before a daily high is complete. We will consider a long position following the next 8.. daily DTosc BullRev which is likely next week. There are no XAU top component stock scans or featured markets in this week's reports. Continued on the next page. Page 18

19 Featured Market Actions A yellow highlight is for a market with an action taken today or for the next trading day. CL (NEW REC: Short): Short on a Sell-Stop, one tick below today's low. Place the initial protective Buy-Stop one tick above the Aug. 28 high at WMT (NEW REC: Short): Short on a Sell-Stop, one tick below today's low. Place the initial protective Buy-Stop one tick above the Aug. 27 high at JNJ (Short): Adjust the protective buy-stop for both units to 96.41, one tick above the 8/27 high. Recommended in the 8/20 report. ABBV (Short): Adjust the protective Buy-Stop for both units to 64.79, one tick above the Aug. 28 high. Recommended in the 8/20 report. Open Trade Recommendations Symbol Long/Short Price Stop CL Short WMT Short Open Trades (1U: 1 st Unit, 2U: 2 nd Unit, 2Us: 2 Units) Symbol Long/Short Opened Price Stop JNJ Short 8/ ABBV Short 8/ Closed Trades (1U: 1 st Unit, 2U: 2 nd Unit, 2Us: 2 Units) Featured Market ETF Long/ Short Entry Date Entry Price Exit Date Exit Price P/L RGLD XAU Short 1/ Us: 1/ SPY SPY Short 1/ Us: 2/ PG IYK Short 1/ Us: 2/ AIG XLF Short 1/ U:2/2 2U:2/3 1U: U: U:1.69 2U:0.00 FCX XAU Short 1/ U:2/2 2U:2/3 1U: U: U:1.88 2U:0.00 GG XAU Long 2/ Us: 2/ KO XLP Short 2/ Us: 2/ INTC SMH Short 2/ Us: 2/ PXD XLE Short 3/ Us: 2/ Page 19

20 CAT XLI Short 3/ U:3/9 1U: U: 1.56 PG IYK Short 2/ U:3/11 2U:4/6 1U: U: U: U: 4.87 PM IYK Short 3/ U:3/18 2U:4/2 1U: U: U: U: 1.18 CAT XLI Short 3/ U: 3/ U: 2.29 CSCO IGN Short 4/ U: 4/ U: T IYK Short 3/ U:4/10 2U:4/23 1U: U: U: U: GOLD XAU Long 3/ U:4/17 2U:4/30 1U: U: U: U: 6.52 DD XLB Short 4/ U: 4/ U: AEM XAU Long 3/ U:4/20 2U:4/22 1U: U: U: U: 0.09 BRCM SMH Short 4/ U: 4/ U: AU XAU Long 4/ U:4/22 2U:4/24 1U: U: U: U: 1.02 IYR IYR Short 4/ U:5/7 1U: U: 2.31 IYR IYR Short 4/ U: 5/8 1U: BE EOG XLE Short 5/ U: 6/ U: PEP XLP Short 6/ SLW XAU Short 6/ GE XLI Short 6/ U:7/1 2U:7/7 1U:7/2 2U:7/23 1U:7/9 2U:7/10 1U: U: U: U: U: U: U: U:BE 1U: U: U: U: 0.83 MRK PPH Short 6/ / BE NEM XAU Short 6/ U:7/10 2U:7/27 1U: U: U: U: 5.90 AEM XAU Long 7/ U: 7/ U: NVO PPH Long 7/ U: 8/ U: KO IYK Long 7/ U: 8/ U: 0.65 Page 20