Danareksa Snapshot. From Research: From Today s Headlines: (please see our analysts comment inside) From IDX: Thursday, 18 April 2013

Transcription

1 Danareksa Snapshot Thursday, 18 April 2013 From Research: BBCA Updates: Playing it safe Despite a number of positives, BBCA already trades at a significant premium to its peers. Utilizing a Deposits Base Valuation (DBV) model, we raise our Target Price to IDR10,150 from IDR8,500 previously, implying PBV of x for FY13-14F. HOLD maintained. From Today s Headlines: (please see our analysts comment inside) Astra Agro Revenue Grows 5.5% (ID) Industrial Land Demand Declined by 44% (ID) INCO will unleash 13 thousand hectares Land (ID) PGAS Aggressively Acquire Oil and Gas Blocks (ID) ADHI Proposes Dividend Ratio 20% (ID) From IDX: Cash announcement Code Ex Date Date Payable Amount (Rp) BBNI 29-Apr May BBTN 29-Apr May BMRI 29-Apr May ITMG 29-Apr May-13 1,464 SMCB 25-Apr May Listing announcement Code Date Term BNII 13-May-13 12:1 Right Issue VI@Rp320 SCMA 8-May-13 Merger with IDKM IDKM 8-May-13 Delisting: Merger IDKM & SCMA AUTO 25-Apr-13 Right issue Source: Stockwatch Key Index Close Chg Ytd Vol (%) (%) (US$ m) Asean - 5 Indonesia 4, Thailand 1,522 (0.4) 9.3 1,976 Philippines 6, Malaysia 1, Singapore 3,291 (0.0) 3.9 1,305 Regional China 2,194 (0.0) (3.3) 10,879 Hong Kong 21,570 (0.5) (4.8) 8,050 Korea 1,915 (0.4) (4.1) 4,872 Taiwan 7, ,443 India 18,731 (0.1) (3.7) 420 Nasdaq 3,205 (1.8) ,502 Dow Jones 14,619 (0.9) ,880 Currency and Interest Rate Rate w-w m-m ytd (%) (%) (%) Rupiah (Rp/1US$) 9,711 (0.2) SBI rate (%) y Govt Indo bond 5.46 (0.1) (0.0) 0.3 Hard Commodities Unit Price d-d m-m ytd (%) (%) (%) Coal US$/ton 88 - (4.3) (2.5) Gold US$/toz 1,376 (0.0) (14.3) (17.9) Nickel US$/mt.ton 15,354 (1.8) (8.8) (9.7) Tin US$/mt.ton 20,346 (3.4) (14.6) (13.0) Soft Commodities Unit Price d-d m-m ytd (%) (%) (%) Cocoa US$/mt.ton 2, Corn US$/mt.ton 261 (0.5) (9.2) (2.6) Crude Oil US$/barrel 97 (0.3) (11.0) (12.3) Palm oil MYR/mt.ton 2,279 (0.4) (2.4) 2.2 Rubber USd/kg 237 (3.1) (14.3) (20.7) Pulp US$/tonne 843 n/a Coffee US$/60kg bag 115 (0.1) (1.4) (1.8) Sugar US$/MT (6.0) (3.2) Wheat US$/mt.ton (0.6) (8.9) Source: Bloomberg See important disclosure on the back of this report

2 PT Danareksa Sekuritas Jl. Medan Merdeka Selatan No. 14 Jakarta Indonesia Tel (62 21) , Fax (62 21) Our Research team and sector coverage: Strategy: Chandra Pasaribu - chandra@danareksa.com, (62-21) Agriculture: Helmy Kristanto - helmyk@danareksa.com; (62-21) Automotive: Helmy Kristanto - helmyk@danareksa.com; (62-21) Auto Component: Joko Sogie - jokos@danareksa.com; (62-21) ext Banking: Eka Savitri - ekas@danareksa.com; (62-21) ext Cement: Chandra Pasaribu - chandra@danareksa.com; (62-21) Coal: Gabriella Maureen - gabriellam@danareksa.com; (62-21) ext Construction: Joko Sogie - jokos@danareksa.com; (62-21) ext Consumer: Helmy Kristanto & Mardesiana - mardesiana@danareksa.com; (62-21) ext Heavy equipment: Gabriella Maureen - gabriellam@danareksa.com; (62-21) ext Metal Mining non coal: Ananita Mieke - ananitamk@danareksa.com; (62-21) ext Pharmaceutical: Helmy Kristanto & Mardesiana - mardesiana@danareksa.com; (62-21) ext Property: Anindya Saraswati - anindyas@danareksa.com; (62-21) ext Retail: Anindya Saraswati - anindyas@danareksa.com; (62-21) ext Transportation: Ananita Mieke - ananitamk@danareksa.com; (62-21) ext Telecom: Chandra Pasaribu - chandra@danareksa.com, (62-21) Utilities: Chandra Pasaribu - chandra@danareksa.com, (62-21)

3 Thursday, 18 April 2013 HOLD Target Price, Rp 10,150 BBCA IJ/BBCA.JK Last Price, Rp 11,000 No. of shares (mn) 24,422 Market Cap, Rp bn 268,493 (US$ mn) 27,648 3M T/O, US$mn 17.7 Last recommendation 28-Mar-13 HOLD Rp 8, Oct-12 HOLD Rp 8, Sep-12 HOLD Rp 8,100 BBCA relative to JCI Index Rp 11,500 10,500 9,500 8,500 7,500 6,500 BUY SELL HOLD 4/18/2012 5/24/2012 BBCA (LHS) 6/29/2012 8/6/ /11/ /17/ /22/2012 Market Recommendation Danareksa vs Consensus Relative to JCI Index (RHS) Our Cons % Diff Target price, IDR 10,150 10, EPS 2013F, IDR PBV 2013F, x /28/2012 2/4/2013 3/12/2013 4/17/2013 % BANKING/COMPANY UPDATE Bank Central Asia Playing it Safe Deposits will grow an estimated 16.2% in 2013F, supported by the bank s envious deposits franchise. On the other hand, loans will continue to grow however at a slower pace than 2012 s figure of 27% we estimate loans growth of 24.0% in 2013, underpinned by strong domestic economic growth. Nonetheless, the bank has reemphasized its cautious stance on the macroeconomic outlook, given that changes in economic conditions could potentially affect its performance. Despite a number of positives, BBCA already trades at a significant premium to its peers. Utilizing a Deposits Base Valuation (DBV) model with a cost of equity of 14.0% and terminal growth of 6.3%, we raise our Target Price to IDR10,150 from IDR8,500 previously, implying PBV of x for FY13-14F. HOLD maintained. Still the deposits franchise bank of choice BBCA will retain its enviable position as the country s deposits franchise bank of choice and is expected to post deposits growth of 16.2% in FY13F, in our estimate, despite stiffer competition coming from its closest peers like BMRI and BBRI. This deposits growth will be supported by continuous improvements to the bank s electronic banking features - despite the risk of an uptick in interest rates - as reflected in the addition of 67 branches and 3,448 ATMs during Moderate loans growth to maintain sound assets quality On the loans side, we estimate growth of 24.0% in FY13F, underpinned by a buoyant domestic economy driven by Indonesia s expanding middle-income population even though global economic uncertainties still persist. Nonetheless, the loan utilization rate fell from 70.1% as of December 2011 to 68.9% as of December 2012, meaning that BBCA had a higher amount of undisbursed loans. Assets quality wise, we believe BBCA will continue to enjoy one of the lowest NPL ratios in the industry it stood at just 0.36% as of December 2013F. Cautious on the macroeconomic outlook The bank s management has reemphasized its cautious stance on the macroeconomic outlook this year, citing the risk of higher inflation on the back of government fuel subsidy policy. Despite that, however, we expect the bank s NIM to increase to 5.90% in FY13F, supported by a slightly higher yield on earning assets and a relatively flat CoF. With a 68.9% loan utilization rate as of December 2012, BBCA will continue to maintain large excess liquidity, in our opinion, making use of safe instruments, with its reverse repo securities increasing by IDR13.2 tn in Eka Savitri (62-21) ext ekas@danareksa.com Danareksa research reports are also available at Reuters Multex and First Call Direct and Bloomberg F 2014F 2015F Net interest income, IDR bn 16,837 19,822 24,138 29,043 33,596 PPOP, IDR bn 13,136 14,754 17,574 20,711 23,823 PBT, IDR bn 13,619 14,686 17,219 20,099 23,136 Net income, IDR bn 10,818 11,718 13,603 16,039 18,463 EPS, IDR EPS growth, % Dividend yield, % ROE, % PBV, x PER, x See important disclosure on the back of this report

4 Still the deposits franchise bank of choice BBCA will retain its extremely resilient deposits franchise, in our view, recording deposits growth in 2013F of an estimated 16.2%, reflecting its superlative deposits franchise. In 2012, BBCA posted 14.5% deposits growth with a higher CASA proportion of 80.3%, up 330 bps from 77.0% as of December As a result, the bank s Cost of Funds (CoF) declined further to 2.2% in FY12. Yet higher inflation poses a risk in 2013 and we believe the CoF has already reached its bottom. As such, we expect BBCA to maintain its CoF at around 2.1% in FY13-14F, underpinned by its strong CASA and higher utilization rate in electronic banking transactions. Exhibit 1. Higher CASA proportion with relatively flat Cost of Funds (CoF) IDR tn CASA (LHS) TD (LHS) CoF (RHS) Dec 09A Dec 10A Dec 11A Dec 12A Dec 13F Dec 14F Dec 15F % To support its position as the country s number one transactional bank, BBCA has added more than 2,000 ATMs each year (both new and replacement), more Cash Deposit Machines (CDM), in addition to making improvements to its internet banking by offering more features. As of December 2012, BBCA had 12,026 ATMs and 1,011 branches. We believe that the bank s strategy to improve its infrastructure is sound, especially since customers will be discouraged from switching to other banks if they are comfortable with the features and services provided by BBCA. The chart shown (exhibit 2) confirms the management s focus on electronic banking. Branch banking is in a declining trend and the shift toward electronic banking utilizing ATMs and internet banking is indisputable. In 2012, transactions value by ATMs and internet banking reached IDR1.28 tn and IDR3.6 tn, respectively, with the number of transactions reaching 1.2 bn and 888 mn, respectively. However, the average transaction size for internet banking declined, down from IDR7.3 mn in 2008 to IDR4.1 mn in This is a reflection of BBCA s prudent risk management policy given that the risk related to internet banking transactions is relatively high. Furthermore, BBCA limits interbank transfers through its internet banking and requires customers to call customer service to register the destination bank account for non-bbca accounts. 2

5 Exhibit 2. Growing Transactions at ATM unit 14,000 12,000 branches (LHS) Branch trx (RHS) ATMs (LHS) ATM trx (RHS) 12,026 mn trx 1,400 1,200 10,000 8,000 6,000 5,997 6,611 7,459 8,578 1, , , , Exhibit 3. Shift toward Internet Banking Transactions 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Branch ATM SMS Internet From the growing deposits, we conservatively forecast that Current Account Saving Accounts (CASA) will continue to dominate the deposits structure, increasing by at least 50 bps to 80.8% as of December 2013F, in our model. As such, the Cost of Funds (CoF) will improve slightly to 2.1% in FY13F, in our estimate. Against this backdrop, BBCA will retain the lowest CoF vis-à-vis other banks. 3

6 Moderate loans growth to maintain sound assets quality To ensure a balance with its growing deposits, BBCA will continue to expand its loans growth, conservatively estimated to reach 24% in FY13F, despite the global economic headwinds. Given the bank s low Loans to Deposits Ratio (LDR) of 69.3% as of December 2012, we believe this is achievable. Underpinning the loans growth will be investment and consumer loans, although their composition in the bank s loans portfolio will be maintained at around the current level. According to the bank s management, mortgages will remain the major contributor toward consumer loans given the growing middle-income population in Indonesia, particularly in several large cities such as Jakarta, Surabaya and Semarang. Despite the LTV regulation that became effective in June 2012, BBCA gained 18.8% market share in mortgages as of December This achievement was helped by its target market of middle high income people, as reflected in the higher average mortgage size from IDR446 mn as of December 2011 to IDR541 mn as of December Going forward, BBCA has indicated that it will gradually increase the size of its mortgages up to IDR1 bn. Exhibit 4. Loans Will Grow In line with the Industry s Loan (LHS) Loan growth (RHS) IDR tn % Dec 09A Dec 10A Dec 11A Dec 12A Dec 13F Dec 14F Dec 15F Exhibit 5. Higher Proportion of Consumer Loans to Total Loan Working capital Consumer Investment Employee loan 100% 80% % % 20% % Dec 08 Dec 09 Dec 10 Dec 11 Dec 12 Source: Company 4

7 BBCA s management has also pointed out that the bank is closely monitoring customer behavior over their savings and current accounts to determine how much to push loans growth. Nonetheless, there are also downside risks from such policy as BBCA may record slower loans growth and a higher amount of unused loans. Such a risk is reflected in the decline of the utilization rate, down from 70.1% as of December 2011 to 68.9% as of December In terms of absolute value, BBCA was left with unused loans of IDR tn as of December 2012, or up from only IDR86.19 tn as of December However, BBCA s conservative risk management policy has worked well for the bank, as depicted in the very low gross NPLs of 0.40% as of December Thus, going forward, we expect BBCA to continue booking the lowest gross NPLs within our banking universe at only 0.36% as of December F. Exhibit 6. NPL and Coverage Ratio NPL (LHS) Coverage (RHS) % Dec 09A Dec 10A Dec 11A Dec 12A Dec 13F Dec 14F Dec 15F % Cautious on the macroeconomic outlook The bank s management has reemphasized its cautious stance on the macroeconomic outlook this year, citing the risk of higher inflation which may subsequently lead to higher interest rates. In our model, the NIM will increase by nearly 25 bps to 5.90% in FY13F from 5.65% in FY12. We assume that BBCA can easily adjust its interest rates as corporate loans accounted for 33% of total loans as of December 2012, although the impact will likely be offset by the bank s fixed rate mortgages. We also expect the CoF to decline only slightly to 2.06% in FY13F, given that the declining trend in CoF has already reached its bottom. As a consequence, there will be a time lag between the yield on earning assets and the CoF of at least six months. Hence, BBCA will benefit from a slightly higher NIM for a short period of time before it normalizes again after adjusting to a higher CoF. At the same time, we also expect BBCA to generate higher fee-based income, reaching, in our estimate, 19.9% of the bank s total operating income in FY13F. 5

8 Exhibit 7. Constant Fee-Based Income Growth with a Minor Improvement in the NIM PPOP (LHS) Fee-based Income (LHS) NIM (RHS) IDR tn % FY09A FY10A FY11A FY12A FY13F FY14F FY15F 4.00 Given the decline in the utilization rate on loans to 68.9% as of December 2012, there was a shift in earning assets as the bank made use of several liquidity absorption instruments. As of December 2012, BBCA had IDR71.1 tn of excess liquidity placed in BI and other banks, in trading and available for sale securities as well as in reverse repo securities. BBCA had an outstanding balance in reverse repo securities of IDR34.4 tn as of December 2012, or up from IDR21.2 tn as of December 2011 despite a lower yield of 4.26% in FY12. Going forward, we believe BBCA will continue to have a large amount of excess liquidity given the uncertainties on the macroeconomic front. Exhibit 8. Greater Variety of Excess Liquidity Instruments IDR tn Source: Company Placement in BI and other banks Trading & AFS Marketable Securities Repo Securities Dec 06 Dec 07 Dec 08 Dec 09 Dec 10 Dec 11 Dec 12 6

9 Exhibit 9. Current Rolling PB at High-end Range x Average = 3.3x Dec-05 Jun-06 Dec-06 Jun-07 Dec-07 Jun-08 Dec-08 Jun-09 Dec-09 Jun-10 Dec-10 Jun-11 Dec-11 Jun-12 Dec-12 Source: Bloomberg, Danareksa Sekuritas Exhibit 10. Current Rolling PE at High-end Range x Average = 14.0x Dec-05 Jun-06 Dec-06 Jun-07 Dec-07 Jun-08 Dec-08 Jun-09 Dec-09 Jun-10 Dec-10 Jun-11 Dec-11 Jun-12 Dec-12 Source: Bloomberg, Danareksa Sekuritas 7

10 Exhibit 11. Balance Sheet (IDR bn) F 2014F 2015F Cash 10,356 11,054 12,261 13,128 14,387 Placement BI and banks 77,391 67,133 64,302 69,888 71,635 Marketable securities 41,988 42,234 46,494 48,848 50,063 Government bond 13,638 8,440 5,998 4,538 3,014 Gross loan - net 199, , , , ,713 Fixed assets - net 4,145 6,407 7,550 9,075 11,052 Others 35,275 53,966 62,246 66,472 71,767 Total assets 381, , , , ,631 Demand deposit 76,020 96, , , ,506 Saving deposit 172, , , , ,356 Time deposit 74,418 73,016 82,540 95, ,063 Deposit from customers 323, , , , ,924 Sharia deposits 864 1,262 1,318 1,605 1,807 Deposit from other banks 3,467 2, ,163 Securities issued 1,481 2,522 2,522 2,522 2,522 Borrowings Other liabilities 10,192 14,580 15,874 19,069 20,727 Total liabilities 339, , , , ,146 Minority Equity 42,003 51,827 62,828 75,221 89,414 Earning assets 324, , , , ,728 Interest bearing liabilities 331, , , , ,563 Exhibit 12. Profit and Loss (IDR bn) F 2014F 2015F Interest income 24,567 27,469 32,738 38,831 45,083 Interest expense 7,730 7,647 8,600 9,788 11,487 Net interest income 16,837 19,822 24,138 29,043 33,596 % yoy growth Fee based income 4,556 5,455 6,554 7,651 8,768 Other opr. inc. 2,657 2,337 2,253 2,346 2,502 Non-interest income 7,213 7,792 8,806 9,997 11,270 Total operating income 24,050 27,614 32,944 39,040 44,866 % yoy growth G&A exp. 5,469 6,450 7,630 9,044 10,444 Personnel exp. 5,204 6,155 7,453 8,965 10,251 Other opr. exp Total operating expense 10,914 12,860 15,370 18,329 21,043 % yoy growth Pre-provisioning profit 13,136 14,754 17,574 20,711 23,823 Provision ,066 Operating profit 13,297 14,256 16,877 19,734 22,757 % yoy growth Other inc./exp Profit before tax 13,619 14,686 17,219 20,099 23,136 % yoy growth Tax 2,801 2,968 3,616 4,060 4,673 Minority interest Net profit 10,818 11,718 13,603 16,039 18,463 % yoy growth No of share, mn 24,655 24,746 24,945 24,945 24,945 EPS

11 Exhibit 13. Selected Ratios (%) F 2014F 2015F NIM Fee based/total income BOPO CIR ROAE ROAA CAR Tier 1 CAR Avg yield on earning assets Loans/earning assets Earning assets/total asset Loan growth Avg cost of fund Deposit/int bearing liab Deposit growth Int bearing liab./total asset NPL - gross NPL - net Coverage LDR

12 DISCLAIMER The information contained in this report has been taken from sources which we deem reliable. However, none of P.T. Danareksa Sekuritas and/or its affiliated companies and/or their respective employees and/or agents makes any representation or warranty (express or implied) or accepts any responsibility or liability as to, or in relation to, the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions contained in this report or as to any information contained in this report or any other such information or opinions remaining unchanged after the issue thereof. We expressly disclaim any responsibility or liability (express or implied) of P.T. Danareksa Sekuritas, its affiliated companies and their respective employees and agents whatsoever and howsoever arising (including, without limitation for any claims, proceedings, action, suits, losses, expenses, damages or costs) which may be brought against or suffered by any person as a results of acting in reliance upon the whole or any part of the contents of this report and neither P.T. Danareksa Sekuritas, its affiliated companies or their respective employees or agents accepts liability for any errors, omissions or mis-statements, negligent or otherwise, in the report and any liability in respect of the report or any inaccuracy therein or omission therefrom which might otherwise arise is hereby expresses disclaimed. The information contained in this report is not be taken as any recommendation made by P.T. Danareksa Sekuritas or any other person to enter into any agreement with regard to any investment mentioned in this document. This report is prepared for general circulation. It does not have regards to the specific person who may receive this report. In considering any investments you should make your own independent assessment and seek your own professional financial and legal advice. 10

13 Astra Agro Revenue Grows 5.5% (ID) AALI posted revenue of Rp2.72 trillion in the first quarter of 2013, grew 5.5% from the previous period last year. CPO sales contributed 90.9% to the company's revenue, and the rest is contributed by the sales of the kernel. The company sold 382,900 tons of CPO during January-March 2013, grew 28% from the previous period last year. As of March 2013, the company's total planted areas reached 274,100 ha, of which approximately 22% of which are plasma. Comment: AALI sales volume growth of 28% is higher than our expectation, but we believe this is mainly driven by low base last year, and we foresee for tapering growth trend in the consequent quarter. Overall sales of IDR2.72t accounts for 22% of our full year forecast. AALI is allocating IDR2.5-3t capex this year, of which 30% will be used for land acquisition. (Helmy) Industrial Land Demand Declined by 44% (ID) Property consultant Cushman & Wakefield noted that demand for industrial land in the first quarter of 2013 was only 86 hectares, the lowest since Demand is down 21% qoq and declined 44% yoy. Large-scale sales transactions of this period appears to be low in the absence of the dominant industrial expansion, with the average demand size is only about 2.8 ha of land, which mostly come from small factories (vendor) that supports major industry. Comment: With limited land bank inventory, companies also prefer with small-scale transaction, which they can charge higher price. With slightly lower demand, however, the high average land selling price still could give benefit for the industrial estate companies. (Anindya) INCO will unleash 13 thousand hectares Land (ID) INCO will release their control land area of 13 thousand hectares in Central Sulawesi which has yet tapped by the company for cooperation with other parties. Currently there are 43 IUP contained in an area of 36 thousand hectares which is still controlled by INCO. INCO initial convention area of 218,528 ha, divided in Sorowako 118,387 Ha (South Sulawesi), 63,506 ha in Pomalaa (Southeast Sulawesi), and 36,635 ha in Bahodopi (Central Sulawesi). In 2010 the government later agreed to release KK area about 28 thousand hectares (12.8% of total KK). So that the total area of the company's current KK to 190,000. Comment: This is in line with INCO s expectation as the company is willing to cooperate with other parties for land that has yet utilized. (Ananita) In the interest of timeliness, this product was not edited

14 PGAS Aggressively Acquire Oil and Gas Blocks (ID) PGAS more aggressively target the oil and gas block (oil) in domestic and abroad. After acquiring two oil and gas blocks, the company is now aiming for at least another three oil and gas blocks. For this purpose, PGAS is expected to spend approximately US$1 billion or Rp9.6 trillion. Excluding the acquisition, the company also has budgeted capital expenditure of US$ million this year. Most of the capex will be spent to boost organic growth through development of gas distribution lines in domestic. ADHI Proposes Dividend Ratio 20% (ID) ADHI proposes a dividend ratio of 20% for fiscal year In 2012, the company's net profit reached Rp211 billion, so the amount of the proposed dividend will be Rp43 billion, or equivalent to Rp23 per share. The proposal will be presented during the company's AGM on 19 April For fiscal year 2011, the dividend ratio reached 30% of ADHI s net profit, or equivalent to Rp54 billion. Comment: We already estimated the same amount of dividend in our model. ADHI s FY12 dividend will give 0.8% yield at the current share price (Rp2,925). (Joko) In the interest of timeliness, this product was not edited

15 The leaders Price as on Code 17-Apr Apr-13 Chg, % w-w, % m-m, % YTD, % Rating Mitra Adi Perkasa MAPI 8,800 8, BUY Ace Hardware ACES HOLD Hexindo Adiperkasa HEXA 5,700 5, (6.6) (30.1) BUY Indocement INTP 25,800 24, HOLD Metropolitan Land MTLA BUY Semen Indonesia SMGR 19,000 18, BUY Gajah Tunggal GJTL 2,675 2, BUY AKR Corporindo AKRA 5,200 5, BUY Selamat Sempurna SMSM 2,675 2, HOLD Alam Sutera ASRI 1,070 1, BUY Sources: Bloomberg The laggards Price as on Code 17-Apr Apr-13 Chg, % w-w, % m-m, % YTD, % Rating XL Axiata EXCL 5,150 5,250 (1.9) (4.6) (1.9) (9.6) SELL Krakatau Steel KRAS (1.6) (3.1) (4.6) (36.7) BUY Garuda Indonesia GIAA (1.6) (1.6) (4.6) (3.1) BUY Lippo Karawaci LPKR 1,360 1,380 (1.4) BUY Sampoerna Agro SGRO 2,100 2,125 (1.2) (3.4) (3.4) (16.0) BUY Salim Ivomas Pratama SIMP (1.1) (6.4) (20.0) (23.5) BUY Wintermar Offshore Marine WINS (1.1) (5.2) BUY Vale Indonesia INCO 2,475 2,500 (1.0) 4.2 (9.2) 6.5 HOLD Adhi Karya ADHI 2,925 2,950 (0.8) BUY Unilever UNVR 22,700 22,850 (0.7) (0.2) HOLD Sources: Bloomberg

16 Disclaimer The information contained in this report has been taken from sources which we deem reliable. However, none of P.T. Danareksa Sekuritas and/or its affiliated companies and/or their respective employees and/or agents makes any representation or warranty (express or implied) or accepts any responsibility or liability as to, or in relation to, the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions contained in this report or as to any information contained in this report or any other such information or opinions remaining unchanged after the issue thereof. We expressly disclaim any responsibility or liability (express or implied) of P.T. Danareksa Sekuritas, its affiliated companies and their respective employees and agents whatsoever and howsoever arising (including, without limitation for any claims, proceedings, action, suits, losses, expenses, damages or costs) which may be brought against or suffered by any person as a results of acting in reliance upon the whole or any part of the contents of this report and neither P.T. Danareksa Sekuritas, its affiliated companies or their respective employees or agents accepts liability for any errors, omissions or mis-statements, negligent or otherwise, in the report and any liability in respect of the report or any inaccuracy therein or omission therefrom which might otherwise arise is hereby expresses disclaimed. The information contained in this report is not be taken as any recommendation made by P.T. Danareksa Sekuritas or any other person to enter into any agreement with regard to any investment mentioned in this document. This report is prepared for general circulation. It does not have regards to the specific person who may receive this report. In considering any investments you should make your own independent assessment and seek your own professional financial and legal advice.