Infrastructure meets Business Globally: Nuno Gil
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1 Infrastructure meets Business Globally: What to Expect from PFI? Nuno Gil Manchester Business School (on sabbatical) Global Research Awardee (Royal Academy of Engineering) CRGP, Stanford University (visiting scholar) Nuno Gil Hong Kong, 2009
2 Infrastructure meets Business Infrastructure Gap is Massive (~ $53 trillion OECD07) population growth, migration towards cities, deteriorated infrastructure, globalization of supply chains Governments worldwide resort to private- sector capital due to constrained budgets and neo-liberal ideology
3 Infrastructure meets Business Transportation systems (airports, railways, highways, ports) utilities (water, electricity, it gaz) social assets (hospitals, schools prisons)
4 Oportunities for Private- sector
5 Recent Asia trends Enormous infrastructure demand (Annual infrastructure needs, ) In USD million Asia Total Central Asia South Asia East Asia and Pacific Road Railway Electricity Generation Water Sanitation Telephone Source: The World Bank Policy Research Working Paper
6 The Funding Issue i) charges ii) government budget iii) hybrid scheme Nuno Gil Hong Kong, 2009
7 The Financing Issue Public finance - bonds; federal funds; taxes Private-capital involvement - privatization of state-owned infrastructure firms - private finance initiatives (PFIs)/concessions - contracting out provision of public services Key players: -public listed companies (e.g., AMEC, Ballford Beatty for PFIs; BAA, VIRGIN TRAINS for privatization) - infrastructure increasingly attractive to pension funds, private investors, family houses; Nuno Gil Hong Kong, 2009
8 BAA s Capital Investment Plan
9 Institutional Framing for Heathrow airport expansion, T5 project
10 Implications of different PFI structures PFI Concession PFI Concession PFI with Minimum i (Annual Revenue) (Annual Revenue) Revenue Guarantee Government Minimum Revenue Payment Revenue Cap Amount Reve enue Private User Revenue Paid to Concessionaire Traffic Volume ue Amount Reven Government Annuity Payment to Concessionaire Traffic Volume Amount Revenu ue Revenue Cap Traffic Volume Private User Revenue Paid to Concessionaire Cost to Government = 0% Availability Finance = Possible Cost to Government = 100% Availability Finance = Certain Cost to Government =?% Availability of Finance= Probable From Asian Development Bank presentation, Washington D.C., Dec 08
11 Large-scale Infrastructure Development Process Marco Venturini
12 Public Procurement alternatives Idea Finan ce Design Build Opera te All Inhouse Outsourci ng Public Authority Operator Design & Build Service BOL/ Contract BOT / BTO/ PFI Concessio n Marco Venturini
13 UK Public Sector Institutions relevant to PFI Devolved Government Pli Policy Units Uit HM Treasury Other key support bodies e.g. 4ps support to Local Authorities Policy Partnerships UK Implementation Auditing bodies e.g. National Audit Office Sector Ministry Private Finance Units Partnerships for Schools PDO
14 PUK Ownership Structure HM Treasury (45%) Private Sector Scottish Ministers (4%) Institutions 49% 51% Advisory Council HMT Perm Sec Chair UK-Wide Public Sector representation PUK Board 2 HMT Nominees inc. 1 Sh. Exec. PUK Partnerships for Investments Schools DfES
15 PFI Development Process Public and Private Infrastructure Investment Management Center (PIMAC) Korea Development Institute (KDI), Washington D.C., Dec. 08
16 UK PFI programme development 893 projects, 78bn capital value, of which 687 now operational
17 Global Diffusion of the PPP Agency Model* Partnerships UK South Africa PPP Unit Partnerships S. Australia Partnerships BC Parpublica (Portugal) MAPPP (France) Infrastructure Ontario Agencies Interviewed Partnerships Victoria (AUS) New South Wl Wales (AUS) PFI Promotion Office (Japan) PPP Knowledge Center (Netherlands) UFP (Italy) PPP Unit (Mauritius) Flemish PPP Knowledge Center Central PPP Policy Unit (Ireland) National PPP Forum (AUS) PPP Policies (Singapore) PPP Centrum (Czech Republic) Efficiency Unit (Hong Kong) PPP Unit (Slovakia) PMAC (Korea) French Institute for PPP (France) Secretariat for PPP (Greece) Other Agencies PPP Central Agency (Fiji) PPP STIP Agency (Croatia) Legend: Dotted line Consulted with Agency Solid line Modeled after Agency *Note work in progress by CRGP, Washington D.C., Dec 08
18 Approximate Size of Various Programs Value of Number of Deals ($B) Deals UK Highways Agency $ Infrastructure Ontario $ MAPPP $ Parpublica $ Partnerships BC $ Partnerships Victoria $ Partnerships UK $ South Africa PPP Unit $ Total $ *Note work in progress by CRGP, Washington D.C., Dec 08
19 PFIs in Asia - a mixed picture Total PFI investment in 2007 (USD million) Georgia 962 China Pakistan 1,434 India 7,388 Vietnam 374 Philippines 1,376 14,232 Cambodia 649 Indonesia 1,441 Source: The World Bank & PPIAF
20 Diversification across Regions 100% 75% Latin America and the Caribbean East Asia and Pacific Europe and Central Asia South Asia Middle East and North Africa Sub-Saharan Africa Percentage of total PFI investment (moving average) 50% 25% 0% Percentage of PFI Investment in Each Region, Source: World Bank and PPIAF, PPI Project Database
21 PPP sectors in Asia Asian PFI investment by sector in 2007 (USD million) Water and Telecom, 1,324, Sewerage, 3% 2,182, 4% Transport, 13,853, 28% Energy, 31,274, 65% Source: The World Bank & PPIAF
22 The Integrator Model: Separate strategic partner responsible for project development from partner responsible for delivery
23 The case of Competitive Partnership: Local Education Parternships(LEPs)/Local Improvement Finance Trusts (LIFTs)
24 The case of Competitive Partnership: Local Education Parternships(LEPs)/Local Improvement Finance Trusts (LIFTs) SRCI (2005)
25 The case of Competitive Partnership: Local Education Parternships(LEPs)/Local Improvement Finance Trusts (LIFTs) SRCI (2005)
26 Incremental Partnerships: where assets can be procured and built into stages (private partner has not exclusivity) i
27 What they say PFI vs. Traditional Model
28 Projects > 20m Stable Project requirements Risk transfer from public to private limited
29 PFI style typical structure Public body Rents guarantee* International ti financial institutions Partnership Contract Insurer Insurance policy Infrastructure delivering Rent Tripartite Convention RAIF Equity and / or subordinate financing Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV) Credit contract Lenders / Market Other investors. Industrial investors Equity Maintenance contract Building contract (Potential) Claim transfers Maintenance company Interface contract Building company *as far as possible
30 Arbitrator Arbitration Minimum Revenue Guarantee Debt Repayment Performance Auditor and Panel of Experts Commercial Lenders Performance monitoring and expert opinion Loan Agreement Government Concession Agreement Concessionaire Standby Loan Agreement Minimum i Revenue Payments Contractual and Regulatory Guarantee IFI Proceeds Revenue en e Support Fund CAPEX = capital expenditure, IFI = International Financial Institution O&M = operations and maintenance Tariff Revenues Cash Cascade: 1. O&M 2. Debt 3. CAPEX 4. Profit distribution Resolves concerns about political risk, and it ensures necessary funding is available if guarantee called Asian Development Bank, Washington D.C., Dec 08
31 Chinese financial investments in Sub-Saharan Africa, Chinese Investment by Country, Chinese Investment by Sector, Nigeria 34% Others 28% Electricity 34% Transport 33% Sudan 8% Angola 20% Ethiopia 10% Water 2% General 14% Telecom 17% Source: World Bank and PPIAF, PPI Projects database.
32 What s next? The cost of flexibility as external environment changes Infrastructure design for future-proofing Building option fees in public procurement contracts Infrastructure funds
33 Infrastructure Fund Performance From 1990 to 2008, infrastructure assets outperformed traded equities, Asian Development Bank, Washington D.C., Dec 2008
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