Financing Infrastructure in Asia and the Pacific

Transcription

1 Financing Infrastructure in Asia and the Pacific Building Bridges III S. Samuel Tumiwa Deputy Representative North America Representative Office November

2 What Does All This Mean Re-emergence of Asia Asia accounted for about 60% of world economy before Industrial Revolution In the following two centuries, Asia s share declined to 15% Asia s share today is 28% Asia s Share of Global GDP, Asian Growth Rates GDP Growth Rate 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% Japan NIC's China & India Asia began to re-emerge after 1950, spurred first by Japan, then NICs Starting in 1980s, first PRC then India, Indonesia and Viet Nam, gave further boost

3 The Asian Century Sub Saharan Africa, 2% Europe, 18% Latin America & Caribbean; 10% Asian Century Scenario Middle East & North Africa, 3% North America; 13% Rest of World, 2% Asia; 52% Asian GDP: $174 trillion Asian GDP per capita: $40,800 Middle Income Trap Scenario Middle East & North Africa, 5% Sub Saharan Africa, 4% Latin America & Caribbean, 9% Europe, 28% Asia; 31% North America; 21% Rest of World, 2% Asian GDP: $65 trillion Asian GDP per capita: $20,600 Asian century driven by Asia 7: India, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, PRC, Republic of Korea, and Thailand - projected to account for 90% of Asia s growth between 2010 and 2050

4 Asia s Urban Challenge Globally, 6.2 billion people in urban areas and 53% in Asia by 2050 (World Urban Prospects, 2011 Revision) By 2050, 64.4% of population of Asia is in urban areas 23 megacities, 13 of which are in Asia Approximately 75% of GDP today comes from the urban areas- urban areas of engines of growth in Asia 44 million people are added to city populations in Asia every year o equivalent to 120,000 people each day who require construction of more than 20,000 new dwellings, 250 km of new roads and additional infrastructure to supply more than 6000 liters of potable water

5 Unique feature 1: very fast speed Number of Years from about 10% to 50% of Urbanization Rate Latin America and Caribbean North America Europe 10% 210 years 49% 105 years 9% 51% 150 years 12% 51% Asia and the Pacific 11% 95 years 51% Viet Nam Indonesia Lao PDR Bhutan China, People's Rep. of 90 years 12% 50% 12% 65 years 54% 60 years 10% 52% 10% 55 years 51% 11% 61 years 51% Source: ADB estimates using Bairoch (2008) and UN(2012).

6 Unique feature 2: highest densities in the world Top 25 World's Cities Ranked by Density, 2007 Density (person/m 2 ) Asia & the Pacific (17/25) Africa Europe Latin America & Caribbean Middle East & North Africa Mumbai Kolkata Karachi Lagos Shenzhen Seoul/Incheon Taipei,China Chennai Bogota Shanghai Lima Beijing Delhi Kinshasa Manila Tehran Jakarta Tianjin Bangalore Ho Chi Minh City Cairo Baghdad Shenyang Hyderabad São Paulo Source:

7 Unique feature 3: many megacities Megacities, 2010 ASIA: 12/23 Note: The circles indicate population sizes ranging from (10 million) to (39 million). The circles do not reflect the physical extents of the cities and any overlap between them merely reflects their relative population sizes and not any official acceptance or endorsement of any geographical sovereignty. Source: UN (2012).

8 thus more and bigger megacities are emerging Megacities, 2025 ASIA: 21/37 Note: The circles indicate population sizes ranging from (10 million) to (39 million). The circles do not reflect the physical extents of the cities and any overlap between them merely reflects their relative population sizes and not any official acceptance or endorsement of any geographical sovereignty. Source: UN (2012).

9 Asia s financing requirements are huge Source: ADB, Infrastructure for a Seamless Asia. Manila Total of $8.3 trillion ( ) or $750 billion/year 9

10 In Asia the infrastructure gap means People without Access to: Water and Sanitation 900 million people Electricity 800 million people Roads 1.2 billion people Internet 80% of Asia Source: Various reports compiled by ADB 10

11 Increasing Energy Demand ( ) 6000 Non-Energy Other Transport Industry Mtoe

12 Road to Nowhere Beijing,

13 ADB s Water Financing Program Rural water rural water supply and sanitation; irrigation and drainage Urban water urban water supply, sanitation and wastewater management Basin water water resources development and management, flood management, wetlands and watershed protection, hydropower Rural Water Urban Water Basin Water

14 ADF-OCF Combinations 14

15 Balance Sheet of Combines ADF & OCR (as of 1 January 2017) Item ADF OCR Combined OCR-ADF Equity ($ billion) Outstanding Loans a ($ billion) Equity-to-Loan Ratio (%) Annual Assistance without Combination ($ billion) Annual Assistance with Combination ($ billion) a Including outstanding guarantees. b Comprises concessional loans ($2.5 billion) and grants ($0.5 billion). c Comprises loans, guarantees, and equity investments. d Comprises non-concessional and concessional loans, guarantees, equity investments, and grants. 3 b 10 c d

16 Asia Pubic Private Partnership Fund (AP3F) 16

17 Approach: ADB s PPP Operational Framework & Modalities 17 Pillar 1 Pillar 2 Pillar 3 Pillar 4 Advocacy & capacity development Enabling environment Project development Project financing Knowledge dissemination, training Office of Public-Private Partnership PPP Act; Streamlined PPP regulation; Tariff reform Country Level PPP units; Planning and coordination RESPONSIBILITIES Feasibility support Preparation support Transaction Advisory Services Regional Departments OPPP: Coordination & Support OPPP: Transaction Advisory Services Financing (Sovereign & Non-Sovereign) Private Sector Operations Dept 17

18 Innovation: Some recent examples of ADB s PPP support 18 Mongolia ADB mandated as transaction advisor to government for $1.3 billion CHP5 project, reaching concession signing (Jun 14) and signed power purchase agmt (Jul 15) Mongolia s first PPP Central and West Asia / South Asia Advisory mandate for Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan, India (TAPI) pipeline progressing; unanimous endorsement (Aug 15) of consortium lead. India Long history of ADB support through TA, loans, and credit enhancements 21 PPP cells established across the country; over $81 billion of projects implemented via PPP On-lending program with IIFCL People s Republic of China ADB provided equity and non-sovereign local currency loan with syndication for Songhua River Basin pollution control project structured through BOT concessions. Philippines ADB s PDMF has boosted preparation: pipeline has > 40 projects, in various stages; est. value of about US$15 billion. ADB recently mandated as transaction advisor for Php 171 billion North-South Railway Project South Line Viet Nam ADB assisted MPI on new PPP Decree, which was approved in March 2015 ADB working on further support for Viet Nam project development facility and potential transaction advisory Bangladesh ADB helped PPP office prepare PPP Guidelines; now approved in 2015 More than 40 projects identified and approved as PPP pipeline projects Office of Public-Private Partnership Papua New Guinea ADB supported development of PPP Act (Sep 14); sets stage for PPP Center and project pipeline ADB supported IPBC for Lae Port PPP feasibility study 18

19 Innovation: Co-Advisory Approach to Transaction Advisory 19 Expertise for international markets Syndication / Placement Capacity International Project Finance Banks Network with public/private stakeholders as a neutral agency PPP expertise through assistance to government policies & frameworks Coordination with other multilateral development agencies and bilateral official agencies Expertise in local financial market Network with local firms and banks Local Financial Institutions for Infrastructure Public Sector Clients Co-advisory Conducting feasibility studies Develop PPP schemes Processing bidding for concessions Supporting financial close Public Sector Clients Office of Public-Private Partnership Clients Benefit from expertise of two advisors Access to industry networks and a wider array of services on single deal, eg. future potential lender, syndication, etc, as well as early stage market testing 19

20 ASEAN Infrastructure Fund 20

21 Equity for AIF AIF+ADB Lending ASEAN Infrastructure Fund Equity & Debt for AIF Item Tranche 1 Tranche 2 Tranche 3 Subtotal ASEAN Brunei Cambodia Unit 0.1 Indonesia Lao PDR Unit 0.1 Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand Viet Nam ADB Subtotal Hybrid Capital Total Notes: Equity Structure for the AIF (1) In US $ Million Dollars (2) Units = $100,000 (3) Tranche 1 =

22 Samuel Tumiwa Deputy Representative North America Representative Office th Street, N.W. Suite 900 Washington, DC