January Roadshow London. Dr. Stefan Schulte / CEO Stefan J. Rüter / Head of Finance & IR. Fraport AG

Transcription

1 January 2017 Roadshow London Dr. Stefan Schulte / CEO Stefan J. Rüter / Head of Finance & IR

2 Disclaimer This document has been prepared by Fraport solely for use in this presentation. The information contained in this document has not been independently verified. No representation or warranty whether express or implied is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, completeness or correctness of the information or opinions contained therein. Neither the company nor any of its affiliates, advisors or representatives shall have any liability whatsoever (in negligence or otherwise) for any loss arising from any use of this document or its content or otherwise arising in connection with this document. This document does not constitute an offer or invitation to purchase or subscribe for any shares and neither this document nor any part of it shall form the basis of, or be relied upon in connection with, any contract or commitment whatsoever. This document contains forwardlooking statements that are based on current estimates and assumptions made by the management of Fraport to the best of its knowledge. Such forwardlooking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties, the nonoccurrence or occurrence of which could cause the actual results including the financial condition and profitability of Fraport to differ materially from or be more negative than those expressed or implied by such forwardlooking statements. This also applies to the forward looking estimates and forecasts derived from thirdparty studies. Consequently, neither the company nor its management can give any assurance regarding the future accuracy of the opinions set forth in this document or the actual occurrence of the predicted developments. By accepting this document, you agree with the foregoing. 2

3 Agenda Business Overview 2016 Traffic Results 2016 Financial Outlook 2017 Business Drivers 3

4 Business Overview 2016: A volatile Year Frankfurt: Operations suffered due to geopolitical unrest Weak Asian and US inbound; also affecting EU transfer traffic Weak O&D leisure outbound mostly to Turkey and Northern Africa Low oil price benefitted Low Cost pointtopoint traffic at other German airports, diverting growth away from FRA Missing Asian travelers also with negative impact on Retail revenue Withdrawal of 2016 fee application continued underperformance in Aviation 4 External: Geopolitics and travel embargo with strong negative impact on Antalya & St. Petersburg Clear positive trend in Varna & Burgas, Lima, and Xi an Disposal of 10.5% stake in St. Petersburg brought anticyclical extra gain US$ ~270m compensation payments for expropriated Manila terminal project received

5 Business Overview 9M Group Financials reflecting weak Trend in FRA & Antalya in mil. 9M M 2015 change Revenue 1,960 1,967 0 % EBITDA % EBIT % Group result before minorities % EPS in % Operating Cash Flow % Free Cash Flow % Net debt 1 2,583 2,774 7 % Gearing Ratio 1 73% 84% 11 PP 5 1) 2015 = yearend values

6 Agenda Business Overview 2016 Traffic Results 2016 Financial Outlook 2017 Business Drivers 6

7 2016 Traffic Results Frankfurt Airport in Detail DEC 2016 D % YTD 2016 D % FY 2015 Passengers in `000 4, , ,032 Movements 33, , ,153 MTOW in `000 tons 2, , ,543 Cargo in `000 tons , ,077 90% 85% 80% Seat load factor YTD 2016 YTD 2015 Passenger per movement +0.6 Pass. 75% 70% 65% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Passenger guidance FY2016: Slightly negative 7 Passenger figures according to ACI, commercial traffic only; cargo includes air freight and air mail

8 2016 Traffic Results Passenger Development at Group Airports (stakes above 10%) IATA Code Airport Share DEC 2016 D previous year YTD 2016 D previous year FY 2015 CAGR FRA Frankfurt, Germany 100% 4, % 60, % 61, % LJU Ljubljana, Slovenia 100% % 1, % 1, % LIM Lima, Peru 70% 1, % 18, % 17, % BOJ Burgas, Bulgaria 60% 1 100% 2, % 2, % VAR Varna, Bulgaria 60% % 1, % 1, % AYT Antalya, Turkey 51% % 19, % 27, % HAJ Hanover, Germany 30% % 5, % 5, % LED St. Petersburg, Russia 25% % 13, % 13, % XIY Xi an, China 24.5% 3, % 36, % 32, % 8 1) Due to refurbishment of taxiways Burgas Airport closed until end of December 2016

9 Agenda Business Overview 2016 Traffic Results 2016 Financial Outlook 2017 Business Drivers 9

10 2016 Financial Outlook Strong Growth due to OneOff Effects, Flat Underlying Results 2015 Results 2016 Outlook incl. Pulkovo & Manila Passengers FRA 61 mil. Slightly negative Revenue 2.6 bn ~ 2.6 bn EBITDA EBIT Group result* 849 mil. 521 mil. 297 mil. between ~ 1,040 mil. and ~ 1,080 mil. between ~ 700 mil. and ~ 740 mil. between ~ 400 mil. and ~ 440 mil. Dividend proposal stable at 1.35 / share at least stable 10 Oddo Midcap Forum January 2017 * Group result before minorities

11 2016 Financial Outlook Oneoff Effect #1: Sale of Pulkovo Shares Sale of 10.5% share in Thalita, operating company of Pulkovo Airport in St. Petersburg, to QIA closed on October 21, 2016 Fraport remains lead operator at 25% share Fraport also sold loans to QIA Total cash inflow of ~100m EUR Q4 book gain on External Activities EBITDA ~35m EUR Since concession takeover in 2010 airport refurbished and expanded 2010 to 2015 passenger growth of ~60% Concession to expire in

12 2016 Financial Outlook Oneoff Effect #2: Manila Payment Manila project expropriated and completely writtenoff in 2002/2003 Since then multiple court cases and appeals First payment: c.30m EUR received from Philippines in 2006 Second payment: c.40m EUR received from German state in Final ruling by Philippines Supreme Court in 2015: PIATCO 2 shall be compensated Fraport now received c.270m US dollars for parts of its claims and the sale of its remaining shareholdings on the Philippines Fraport in turn no longer pursues legal claims in connection with Manila project After taxation and paying back money received from the German state in 2008, net amount likely to grow 2016 Group result by ~120m EUR Impact on dividend to be discussed with Supervisory Board & suggested to AGM 1) Payment received under Federal guarantee for investments abroad 2) PIATCO = Philippine International Air Terminals Co. Until disposal on Oct. 11, 2016 Fraport hold a 30% share in PIATCO 12

13 Agenda Business Overview 2016 Traffic Results 2016 Financial Outlook 2017 Business Drivers 13

14 2017 Business Drivers FRA Airport Charges FRA application to increase 2017 aviation charges by on average 1.9% approved in Dec Increase will be valid as of January 1, 2017 Increase will focus on noise emission component New charge scheme also includes incentive program among others for airlines serving new intercontinental routes with low noise emission aircraft and for airlines showing passenger growth of more than 3% on continental routes outside of Germany 14

15 2017 Business Drivers FRA Low Cost Low Cost share FRA Low Cost share Europe 4 % Network carrier Low cost 2060 % Market share of low cost in Europe between 20% and 60% Germany comparatively weak Trend: relocation of low cost to metropolitan areas Increasing focus on highspending and business travelers Clear focus on process efficiency and productivity FRA so far without significant LCC offering Currently, loss of market potential to other airports (e.g., Cologne) 15

16 2017 Business Drivers FRA Terminal 3 Excavation work finished on time Special excavation work to start in 2017 Planning phase extended until mid 2017 Inauguration expected for capex will be below 100m EUR 16

17 2017 Business Drivers Expectable Recovery in Antalya FY international passengers down by ~43% Strong decline of German and Russian passengers: 30% and 84% Recovery in Russian traffic since lift of ban in Sept Robust domestic traffic Depending on geopolitics: recovery in 2017 expected Passenger performance 150% Domestic International Russians Germans 100% 50% 0% 50% 11% 17% 13% 11% 14% 21% 1% 7% 6% 10% 14% 4% January February March April May June July August September October November December 20% 31% 19% 24% 39% 49% 56% 49% 47% 40% 41% 12% 100% 17

18 2017 Business Drivers Greek Concession Deal soon to be closed Management team fully equipped Hiring of operational staff underway, per January more than 500 employees ERP system implemented and in test phase Process improvements and construction & design works are more or less defined Project financing & tendering of EPC contract on home stretch Concession takeover planned for February of 2017 Financial outlook for 2017 unchanged: EBITDA more than 100m EUR, bottom line around zero Moving into Greece HQ 18

19 2017 Business Drivers Conditions set for Growth Detailed 2017 guidance will be published on March 17 Frankfurt: New Aviation fee scheme with pricing upside and noticeable incentives for traffic growth and noise reduction Market entrance of Ryanair will boost Low Cost traffic out of FRA Passenger development expected to come back to long term growth path JV with Duty Free Operator enhances Retail opportunities Completion of T3 detailed planning phase expected for mid of the year Further pursuing of cost saving programs to mitigate price effects on wages External: Lifted travel embargo will ease traffic situation in Antalya & St. Petersburg, potential diversion of traffic away from Varna & Burgas Closing and takeover of 14 Greek regional airports planned for February Airmall is preferred bidder for JFK T5 Ongoing traffic growth for Lima and Xi an expected 19

20 Thank you for your Attention! 20

21 2016 FY Outlook* Reconciliation of Expected Results Rough guidance in mil. Old guidance up to ~880 between ~1,040 and ~1,080 ~ ~850 EBITDA FY 2015 between ~1,040 and ~1,080 Traffic Aviation Retail revenue FRA tariff increases between ~700 and ~740 Air IT 85 Real Estate Twin Star & Lima 2015 provisions Other items Outlook & opex 2016 underlying EBITDA +Pulkovo +Manila other effects New 2016 EBITDA outlook between ~570 and between ~610 ~400 and ~440 EBITDA outlook 2016 D&A EBIT 2015 Antalya Improvement Manila EBT Taxes Group result outlook 2016 Financial interest result F/X oneoff outlook 2016 outlook 2016 result 21 *Rounded Figures, Expectations as of Nov. 2016, Group result before minorities

22 Business Development FRA Winter Schedule 2016/17 1 Geopolitical situation still weighing on supply 2 3 # of movements and seats slightly negative at 0.9% and 2.0% Adjusted for 4Outlook Turkey: broadly flat offering for 2017 summer season: stabilizing trend to slightly positive New winter flight schedule as of October 30,

23 Business Development FRA Airport Charges Growth Incentives Year (12 month period) Intercontinental traffic Incentive per departing passenger Conditions: The new destination must be flown at least 25 times per year; route must be operated during a minimum of three consecutive flightschedule periods, or at least during three consecutive winter or summer flight schedules Airline flies nonstop to a new intercontinental destination from FRA, i.e. a destination not served directly from FRA for the previous three flightschedule periods Total airline growth must be > 0% per year % Growth (referred to base year) Continental traffic (excludinggermany) Incentive per departing passenger (per growth interval) > 3 to to to 7, to to to > Conditions: Airline carries at least 10,000 departing passengers per year. Incentive is paid for each additional pax, if growth exceeds 3% compared to previous year. Seven growth intervals No incentives for domestic (intragerman) traffic 2year sustainability incentivization (Year 1: 20% compared to the base year / Year 2: 40% compared to Year 1 / Pax volume in each year must reach at least the amount of the base year) 23

24 Business Development Greek Regional Airports Traffic Stats Thessaloniki Kavala Passengers M 2016 Change Kerkira Aktion % Aktion Skiathos Mytilini Chania 2, % Kefallinia Zakinthos Mykonos Samos Kos Kavala % Kefallinia % Santorini Rhodes Kerkira 2, % Chania Thessaloniki 5, % Passengers M 2016 Change Kos 1, % Mytilini % Zakinthos 1, % Cluster A 13, % Mykonos % Rhodes 4, % Samos % Santorini 1, % Skiathos % Robust 11M passenger growth of above 8% Cluster B 10, % 24

25 Financial Highlights 9M Group EBITDA 12 mil. mil EBITDA 9M 2015 Revenue ex. IFRIC 12 IFRIC 12 revenue Other income Cost of materials ex. IFRIC 12 IFRIC 12 cost of materials Staff cost Other opex EBITDA 9M 2016 Segment share in Group EBITDA 9M 2015 Segment share in Group EBITDA 9M 2016 External Activities & Services Ground Handling 5,9% 23,3% 29,3% Aviation External Activities & Services Ground Handling 23,3% 6,6% 28,4% Aviation 41,5% Retail & Real Estate 41,7% Retail & Real Estate 25 Due to commercial rounding slight discrepancies may occur when summing up

26 Financial Highlights 9M Group Result 23 mil mil Group result 9M 2015 EBITDA D&A Financial result Taxes Group result 9M 2016 EPS 9M 2015 EPS 9M 2016 Split of financial result Comments mil 9M 16 9M 15 % Interest income Interest expenses At equity result Other result 2 1 >100 Financial result Improved interest result from lower interest rates and lower indebtedness Antalya with negative delta of 39m EUR Positive results in Xi an and Hanover with minor compensating effects Other financial result up, due to lack of negative CHF loan revaluation effect in previous year 26 Due to commercial rounding slight discrepancies may occur when summing up, percent changes based on unrounded figures

27 Financial Highlights 9M Cash Flow mil. Operating cash flow Intangible assets 4 6 PPE Airport operating projects Investment property DVDs from investments Free cash flow M M M 2016 development Lower OCF due to 52 mil. higher tax payments, a.o. for oneoff tax repayments for previous years Spending on PPE ahead of 9M 2015 due to mild winter and cash out for certain finalized projects, a.o., T1 arrival lane Decline in DVD from investments due to AYT FY 2016 Outlook 2016 capex on 2015 level or slightly above 2016 FCF expected to be significantly above 2015 level due to Manila and Thalita payment 2016 FCF will delever Group by up to c.15 % 2016 FY net debt/ebitda < 3x 27 Due to commercial rounding slight discrepancies may occur when summing up

28 Financial Highlights 9M Financial Position FCF 1 Liquidity Gross debt Net debt Equity Gearing 2 7% or EUR 191m 11 % points mil % 84% Sept. 30, 2016 Dec. 31, 2015 Cash development Stable Group liquidity despite repayment of financial liabilities and DVD cash out Good deleverage of ~7% to net debt of 2.58 bn. Manila & Thalita payments will further positively impact liquidity and indebtedness Balance sheet Equity increased to 3.64 bn. Gearing ratio down by 11 percentage points to 73% Equity ratio at 40% (Dec. 31, 2015: 37%) 28 Due to commercial rounding slight discrepancies may occur when summing up 1) FCF predividend payout; figures correspond to 9M figures 2) Net debt divided by equity less noncontrolling interests and profit earmarked for distribution

29 Group Financial Position Maturity Profile & Cash Position as at September 30, 2016 mil. Fraport debt conditions on average , ~ 3.3% interest rate ~ 4.7 years maturity Bookvalue nominal ,8 Liquidity as of Sep 30, 2016 Financial Liabilities 1.131,7 516,2 548,6 421,7 400,2 294,1 184,9 54,9 32,6 2,

30 Segment Aviation 9M 2016 Lower Volumes led to lower Earnings P&L in mil. 9M 16 9M 15 % Revenue Airport charges Security Services Other revenue EBITDA EBIT Comments Decrease in airport charges due to 1.2% passengers and 1.4% movements Security business down due to decline in traffic & loss of T1 concourse B contract EBITDA and EBIT down Employees 6,082 6, EBITDA performance in mil Revenue split 4,4% Other Security Services 12,3% EBITDA 9M 2015 Revenue Other income Staff cost Other EBITDA 9M ,3% Aviation charges 30 Due to commercial rounding slight discrepancies may occur when summing up, percent changes based on unrounded figures

31 Segment Retail & Real Estate 9M 2016 Weak Retail compensated by Property Sales & OneOff P&L in mil. 9M 16 9M 15 % Revenue Retail Real Estate Parking Other revenue 17 4 >100 EBITDA EBIT Employees Comments Decline in Retail revenue compensated by other revenue from property sales, and additional real estate revenue Higher cost from multichannel & allocation of internal cost Despite higher other income, EBITDA and EBIT slightly down on the previous year EBITDA performance in mil. Revenue split Parking 4,7% Other 16,5% 40,1% Retail EBITDA 9M 2015 Revenue Other income Staff cost Other EBITDA 9M 2016 Real Estate 38,7% 31 Due to commercial rounding slight discrepancies may occur when summing up, percent changes based on unrounded figures

32 Segment Retail & Real Estate 9M M/Q3 Retail Revenue per Passenger 3% below PY Retail revenue per Passenger 9M 13: M 14: M 15: M 16: ,74 3,42 3,24 4,11 3,95 3,93 4,05 3,69 3,22 3,41 3,26 3,04 3,62 3,42 3,17 FY 13: 3.60 FY 14: 3.43 FY 15: 3.62 mil. Shopping Services Advertis. Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q

33 Segment Retail & Real Estate 9M 2016 Negative Development of Core Spending Destinations Top 5 by Retail Value Top 5 by Volume Volume Development Change vs. 9M 2015 in % China Russia South Korea Japan Vietnam USA Turkey Germany India UAE Retail Revenue per Passenger in EUR Change vs. 9M 2015 in % Source: sales/revenue data of Gebr. Heinemann by destinations 33

34 Segment Ground Handling 9M 2016 Disposal of Cargo Subsidiary increases EBITDA & Margin P&L in mil. 9M 16 9M 15 % Revenue Ground Handling Infrastructure Other revenue 10 0 >100 EBITDA EBIT Employees 8,654 9, Comments Adjusted for deconsolidation effect: c.9m revenue & 3m EBITDA growth Negative passenger performance but positive development of maximum takeoff weights Other revenue up, due to charging of staff to cargo subsidiary now treated as 3 rd party EBITDA and EBIT up EBITDA performance in mil. Revenue split Infrastructure 47,8% 2,2% Other 50,0% Ground Handling EBITDA 9M 2015 Revenue Other income Staff cost Other EBITDA 9M Due to commercial rounding slight discrepancies may occur when summing up, percent changes based on unrounded figures

35 Segment External Activities & Services 9M 2016 Strong Lima & Twin Star Performance, Negative Base Effect P&L in mil. 9M 16 9M 15 % Revenue excl. IFRIC EBITDA EBIT Employees 5,088 4, Comments Adjusted for deconsolidation effect: c.36m revenue & 6m EBITDA growth Strong Lima & Twin Star development Lack of 8m extra income from disposal of Air IT in previous year Start up cost for Greece Sound underlying 9M EBITDA & EBIT EBITDA performance in mil. Revenue split ± ,1% Other 6,5% Ljubljana Airmall 11,2% 53,8% Lima EBITDA 9M 2015 LAP LJU Twin Star AMU Air IT Greece & other EBITDA 9M ,4% Twin Star 35 Due to commercial rounding slight discrepancies may occur when summing up, percent changes based on unrounded figures

36 External Activities 9M 2016 Fully consolidated Investments Airmall Ljubljana Lima Twin Star mil. 9M 16 9M 15 % 9M 16 9M 15 % 9M 16 9M 15 % 9M 16 9M 15 % Revenue ex IFRIC EBITDA EBIT Result mil. Q3 16 Q3 15 % Q3 16 Q3 15 % Q3 16 Q3 15 % Q3 16 Q3 15 % Revenue ex IFRIC EBITDA EBIT Result Figures refer to IFRS accounting, not local GAAP, percent changes based on unrounded figures

37 External Activities 9M 2016 At Equity consolidated Investments Antalya Pulkovo Hanover Xi An mil. 9M 16 9M 15 % 9M 16 9M 15 % 9M 16 9M 15 % 9M 16 9M 15 % Revenue ex IFRIC EBITDA EBIT Result mil. Q3 16 Q3 15 % Q316 Q3 15 % Q3 16 Q3 15 % Q3 16 Q3 15 % Revenue ex IFRIC EBITDA EBIT Result > Except for Xi an all figures refer to IFRS accounting, percent changes based on unrounded figures

38 Appendix IR Contact Frankfurt Airport Services Worldwide Frankfurt am Main Stefan J. Rüter Head of Finance & IR Christina Doorn IR Assistant Florian Fuchs IR Manager Tanja Nagel IR / Financial Reporting t.nagel@fraport.de Maximilian Schultheis IR / Financial Reporting m.schultheis@fraport.de 38