Weekly Market Update

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1 Weekly Market Update 4-19-17 2017 Phoenix Capital Research, Phoenix Capital Management Inc. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright laws of the United States and international treaties.

1 1 Weekly Market Update Phoenix Capital Research, Phoenix Capital Management Inc. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright laws of the United States and international treaties. This newsletter may only be used pursuant to the subscription agreement and any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including on the world wide web), in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Phoenix Capital Management Inc. All Rights Reserved.

2 Disclaimer: The information contained on this newsletter is for marketing purposes only. Nothing contained in this newsletter is intended to be, nor shall it be construed as, investment advice by Phoenix Capital Research or any of its affiliates, nor is it to be relied upon in making any investment or other decision. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed on this newsletter constitutes and offer to buy or sell any security or instrument or participate in any particular trading strategy. The information in the newsletter is not a complete description of the securities, markets or developments discussed. Information and opinions regarding individual securities do not mean that a security is recommended or suitable for a particular investor. Prior to making any investment decision, you are advised to consult with your broker, investment advisor or other appropriate tax or financial professional to determine the suitability of any investment. Opinions and estimates expressed on this newsletter constitute Phoenix Capital Research's judgment as of the date appearing on the opinion or estimate and are subject to change without notice. This information may not reflect events occurring after the date or time of publication. Phoenix Capital Research is not obligated to continue to offer information or opinions regarding any security, instrument or service. Information has been obtained from sources considered reliable, but its accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. Phoenix Capital Research and its officers, directors, employees, agents and/or affiliates may have executed, or may in the future execute, transactions in any of the securities or derivatives of any securities discussed on this newsletter. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance and is no guarantee of future results. Securities products are not FDIC insured, are not guaranteed by any bank and involve investment risk, including possible loss of entire value. Phoenix Capital Research, OmniSans Publishing LLC and Graham Summers shall not be responsible or have any liability for investment decisions based upon, or the results obtained from, the information provided. Phoenix Capital Research is not responsible for the content of other newsletters to which this one may be linked and reserves the right to remove such links. OmniSans Publishing LLC and the Phoenix Capital Research Logo are registered trademarks of Phoenix Capital Research. OmniSans Publishing LLC - PO BOX 2912, Alexandria, VA 22301

3 Weekly Market Update As I outlined last week, I believe the $USD is about to stage a brief bounce/ rally. The driving force behind this move will not be a change in the macro environment. Instead, I expect a dead cat bounce based on sentiment. The fact is that the $USD had been a disaster as an investment thus far in 2017, falling against every other major currency year to date. 3

Anytime you get this extreme of a move (a drop against ALL other currency pairs), you re due for a bounce. In investing, nothing goes straight up or straight down.

4 Anytime you get this extreme of a move (a drop against ALL other currency pairs), you re due for a bounce. In investing, nothing goes straight up or straight down. With that in mind, starting last week I anticipated that we would see a short-term bounce in the $USD. And when this bounce hits, it will knock down risk assets particularly Emerging Markets, Natural Resources/ Commodities, Precious Metals, and Precious Metals Miners. With that in mind, we closed out a number of winners. As far as making money goes, last week was a truly fantastic week for us. Open Positions Symbol Buy Date Buy Price Sell Date Sell Price Gain/ Loss Emerging markets 7% EEM 1/12/17 $36.60 ETF 4/10/17 $39.20 Barrick Gold ABX 10/5/16 $ /10/17 $ % Uranium ETF URA 6/8/16 $ /12/17 $ % Cameco CCJ 1/4/17 $ /12/17 $ % Coal ETF KOL 1/4/17 $ /12/17 $ % Silver Standard 10% SSRI Resources 10/5/16 $ /12/17 $11.32 Royal Gold RGLD 2/8/17 $ /12/17 $ % Silver Miners SIL 3/15/17 $ /12/17 $ % US Steel (SHORT) X 2/1/17 $ /13/17 $ % Copper Miners ETF COPX 3/23/17 $22.64 (SHORT) 4/18/17 $ % However, last week the $USD bounce didn t hit. Instead the $USD plunged. Why? Both President Trump and his Treasury Secretary gave interviews that week in which they stated that the $USD was too strong or some paraphrasing of this. The $USD collapsed as a result of this. It s frustrating, but nothing personal against us. At this point in his Presidency, Donald Trump has tweeted about/ collapsed the price of Airline stocks, Drug/ Pharmaceutical stocks, Automakers, Clothing Retailers, and others. I guess the last seven days it was our turn to get hit via the $USD! 4

5 However, it now looks as though the greenback is finally finding its footing. 5

6 As a result of Trump sending the $USD lower, precious metals moved higher last week. However, I think that move is now done. Gold is right at its target for a turnaround and quick correction. I expect we ll see the precious metal fall to somewhere in that band of support (red lines). It s a similar story for Silver, though the breakout to the upside has been less dramatic (this is what convinces me the move in Gold is not the real deal). I expect we re going to see Silver test the lower trendline/ support around $17.50 shortly. 6

7 While I was off on my call for a bounce in the $USD and drop in Precious Metals, we ve absolutely nailed the drop in Precious Metals miners. GDX fell over 3% today. It now has a date with the lower trendline (red line). This will present us with a fantastic opportunity to add to our current position. 7

8 For GDXJ, I expect we ll not only break the trendline but we ll fall to test critical support (the blue line) before the next leg up begins. 8

9 While we re waiting for the mining complex to bottom, I want to outline the targets at which we ll move back into various plays in the sector. For Barricks Gold (ABX), I m looking to have us move back into this miner once we break below $18. Anywhere between $17 and $18 is a major buy. For Royal Gold (RGLD), the picture is less clear. While $70 is attractive, I fear we might see this support give way with a bounce not happening until we reach the upper blue trendline at $66 and change. Put simply, I m looking to have us buy somewhere between $66 and $70. 9

10 For Silver Miners (SIL) I expect we ll take out the trendline (blue line) AND fall to critical support (red line) around $32. That s our place to buy. 10

11 Silver Standard Resources (SSRI) has already taken out its trendline. I m looking to have us buy somewhere just below $10 a share at the redline. As you can see in all of the above charts, it s too early to buy. The precious metals mining complex as a whole needs to drop 10% or more to trigger buy signals for me. So we re on the sidelines here for now. But once the drop is completed, it s time to back up the truck as I believe precious metals will lead into year-end of Here s my big picture road map for Gold: once we complete this pullback we ll begin our eventual move to $1,480 into year-end/ early

12 For Silver, the comparable move will be to $27.50 or so by year-end/ early

13 The mining complex will see even larger returns. Once GDX finishes its move down to $20, it s going to begin its move higher to $38 by year-end /early For Silver Miners (SIL) after $30 comes the move into $60 by year-end/early

14 So, as you can see I m expecting some VERY big things from the mining sector before 2017 ends. This move will be driven by an absolute collapse in the $USD as the Fed is forced to walk back its rate hikes. Yes, the Fed will push hard to hike rates and begin shrinking its balance sheet in the first half of 2017 but by year-end, the economy will be in such a poor state the Fed will have no choice. Once the $USD s dead cat bounce to 102 or so is complete, we ll break through the upper support line (top red line) and begin our drop down towards 93 (the lower trendline). That s how things will play out into year-end. However, right now, while we re waiting for the bounce in the $USD/drop in precious metals to finish, the Alternative Energy sector is starting to look VERY promising. Now I realize this sounds completely insane. After all, the Trump administration has been largely pro-oil, pro-natural Gas, and pro-coal with virtually NO supporting comments on alternative energy. Those who would point to this are forgetting the single most important idea for successful 14

15 trading PRICE is more important than Narratives Consider the following the common narrative is that Trump s Presidency will prove to be a disaster for Mexico as he pushes for renegotiations of trade agreements and a border wall. If this is the case, no one told the Mexican stock market which has nearly DOUBLED the S&P 500 s performance since right after the election! Again, Price is more important than narratives. If you need more proof, consider than the Clean Energy sector s performance was absolutely ABYSMAL under the Obama administration despite the latter s clear support via legislation and policy! 15

16 My point with all of this is that markets react to numerous items and many times Presidential policies aren t all that important. Again, put simply, PRICE is more important than narrative. And right now, PRICE is telling me that the clean energy sector is bottoming in a BIG way. The Clean Energy ETF (PBW) has broken out of a MASSIVE falling wedge pattern. This could easily go to $5.00 in the next few months. 16

17 Action to Take Buy the Clean Energy ETF (PBW) The Solar ETF (TAN) is also looking VERY bullish. 17

18 Action to Take: Buy the Solar ETF (TAN) Regarding the US stock market, I think it will follow the $USD in a dead cat bounce. The bears really needed to step up to push the market off the ledge. They didn t. So we ll likely see a bounce to 2,375 or so here, before we roll over hard and begin working our way down to 2,200 on the S&P 500 sometime in June This concludes this week s weekly market update for Private Wealth Advisory. I m watching the markets closely and will issue updates as needed. Barring any new developments, you ll next hear from me next Wednesday in our longer monthly issue of Private Wealth Advisory. Until then Best Regards, Graham Summers Chief Market Strategist Phoenix Capital Research 18

OPEN POSITIONS STOCKS PORTFOLIO BUY BUY CURRENT GAIN/ POSITION SYMBOL DATE PRICE PRICE LOSS RPX Corp RPXC 8/5/15 $15.48 $12.50-19% Peru ETF EPU 12/7/16 $33.23 $33.

67 5% Public Storage PSA 3/23/17 $225.92 $229.99 2% Southwestern -10% SWN 3/30/17 $8.15 $7.31 Energy Gulfport Energy GPOR 3/30/17 $17.17 $15.66-9% Clear Energy ETF PBW 4/19/17 $4.06 NEW BUY!

19 OPEN POSITIONS STOCKS PORTFOLIO BUY BUY CURRENT GAIN/ POSITION SYMBOL DATE PRICE PRICE LOSS RPX Corp RPXC 8/5/15 $15.48 $ % Peru ETF EPU 12/7/16 $33.23 $ % Agricultural -3% RJA 1/12/17 $6.46 Commodities ETF $6.24 China ETF ASHR 2/1/17 $24.98 $ % Brazil ETF EWZ 2/8/17 $37.53 $ % Utilities ETF XLU 2/8/17 $49.35 $ % Public Storage PSA 3/23/17 $ $ % Southwestern -10% SWN 3/30/17 $8.15 $7.31 Energy Gulfport Energy GPOR 3/30/17 $17.17 $ % Clear Energy ETF PBW 4/19/17 $4.06 NEW BUY! Solar Energy ETF TAN 4/19/17 $17.20 NEW BUY! BONDS PORTFOLIO POSITION SYMBOL BUY DATE BUY PRICE CURRENT PRICE GAIN/ LOSS Nuveen Muni. Fund NVG 1/2/14 Emerging Market Bonds EMB 11/21/16 Long US Treasuries TLT 11/21/16 $13.12 $ $ $ % $ % $ % Prices as of market s close on 4/19/17. Gains include dividends 19

PRECIOUS METALS/ MINERS PORTFOLIO POSITION SYMBOL BUY DATE BUY PRICE CURRENT PRICE GAIN/ LOSS Gold Silver* 3/17/10 3/17/10 $1,120 $16.23 $1,281.00 $18.13 Gold Miners ETF GDX 10/5/16 $22.83 $23.

20 14% 12% 2% -3% -6% -18% SPECIAL SITUATIONS/HEDGES/SHORTS PORTFOLIO POSITION SYMBOL BUY BUY CURRENT GAIN/ DATE PRICE PRICE LOSS France ETF (SHORT) EWQ 9/16/16 $23.38 $25.

20 PRECIOUS METALS/ MINERS PORTFOLIO POSITION SYMBOL BUY DATE BUY PRICE CURRENT PRICE GAIN/ LOSS Gold Silver* 3/17/10 3/17/10 $1,120 $16.23 $1, $18.13 Gold Miners ETF GDX 10/5/16 $22.83 $23.39 Gold Mining Juniors GDXJ ETF 10/5/16 $37.52 $34.71 Silver Wheaton SLW 10/5/16 $22.59 $21.21 New Gold NGD 10/5/16 $3.88 $ % 12% 2% -3% -6% -18% SPECIAL SITUATIONS/HEDGES/SHORTS PORTFOLIO POSITION SYMBOL BUY BUY CURRENT GAIN/ DATE PRICE PRICE LOSS France ETF (SHORT) EWQ 9/16/16 $23.38 $ % Italy ETF (SHORT) EWI 9/16/16 $21.56 $ % Russell 2000 ETF (SHORT) IWM 12/14/16 $ $ % Financials ETF (SHORT) XLF 12/21/16 $23.61 $ % Apple (SHORT) AAPL 3/23/17 $ $ % Prices as of market s close on 4/19/17. Gains include dividends *Average price of $17.50 and $

21 CASH/ CURRENCIES PORTFOLIO POSITION SYMBOL BUY DATE BUY PRICE CURRENT PRICE GAIN/ LOSS Euro Trust FXE 10/5/16 $ $ % Prices as of market s close on 4/19/17. Gains include dividends 21

RECENTLY CLOSED POSITIONS POSITION SYMBOL BUY DATE BUY PRICE SELL DATE SELL PRICE GAIN/ LOSS American Eagle AEO 5/26/16 $15.36 Outfitters (SHORT) 1/31/17 $14.

22 RECENTLY CLOSED POSITIONS POSITION SYMBOL BUY DATE BUY PRICE SELL DATE SELL PRICE GAIN/ LOSS American Eagle AEO 5/26/16 $15.36 Outfitters (SHORT) 1/31/17 $ % Cliffs Nat Resources 19% CLF 2/8/17 $10.15 $12.10 (FIRST HALF) 2/13/17 Ambev ABEV 11/25/16 $4.96 2/23/17 $ % Cemex CX 11/25/16 $8.07 2/23/17 $8.69 8% Cliffs Nat Resources 10% CLF 2/8/17 $10.15 $11.13 (SECOND HALF) 2/23/17 Exxon XOM 9/24/14 $ /8/17 $ % Enterprise Products 9% EPD 11/31/16 $25.93 Partners 3/8/17 $27.83 Natural Gas ETF UNG 2/22/17 $6.57 3/8/17 $7.11 8% Emerging markets ETF EEM 1/12/17 $ /10/17 $ % Barrick Gold ABX 10/5/16 $ /10/17 $ % Uranium ETF URA 6/8/16 $ /12/17 $ % Cameco CCJ 1/4/17 $ /12/17 $ % Coal ETF KOL 1/4/17 $ /12/17 $ % Silver Standard 10% SSRI Resources 10/5/16 $ /12/17 $11.32 Royal Gold RGLD 2/8/17 $ /12/17 $ % Silver Miners SIL 3/15/17 $ /12/17 $ % US Steel (SHORT) X 2/1/17 $ /13/17 $ % Copper Miners ETF COPX 3/23/17 $22.64 (SHORT) 4/18/17 $ % 22

Weekly Market Update Part 2

Weekly Market Update Part 2 1 Weekly Market Update 6-22-17 Part 2 2017 Phoenix Capital Research, Phoenix Capital Management Inc. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright laws of the United States and international treaties. This