Weekly Market Update

Transcription

1 1 Weekly Market Update Phoenix Capital Research, Phoenix Capital Management Inc. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright laws of the United States and international treaties. This newsletter may only be used pursuant to the subscription agreement and any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including on the world wide web), in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Phoenix Capital Management Inc. All Rights Reserved.

2 Disclaimer: The information contained on this newsletter is for marketing purposes only. Nothing contained in this newsletter is intended to be, nor shall it be construed as, investment advice by Phoenix Capital Research or any of its affiliates, nor is it to be relied upon in making any investment or other decision. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed on this newsletter constitutes and offer to buy or sell any security or instrument or participate in any particular trading strategy. The information in the newsletter is not a complete description of the securities, markets or developments discussed. Information and opinions regarding individual securities do not mean that a security is recommended or suitable for a particular investor. Prior to making any investment decision, you are advised to consult with your broker, investment advisor or other appropriate tax or financial professional to determine the suitability of any investment. Opinions and estimates expressed on this newsletter constitute Phoenix Capital Research's judgment as of the date appearing on the opinion or estimate and are subject to change without notice. This information may not reflect events occurring after the date or time of publication. Phoenix Capital Research is not obligated to continue to offer information or opinions regarding any security, instrument or service. Information has been obtained from sources considered reliable, but its accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. Phoenix Capital Research and its officers, directors, employees, agents and/or affiliates may have executed, or may in the future execute, transactions in any of the securities or derivatives of any securities discussed on this newsletter. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance and is no guarantee of future results. Securities products are not FDIC insured, are not guaranteed by any bank and involve investment risk, including possible loss of entire value. Phoenix Capital Research, OmniSans Publishing LLC and Graham Summers shall not be responsible or have any liability for investment decisions based upon, or the results obtained from, the information provided. Phoenix Capital Research is not responsible for the content of other newsletters to which this one may be linked and reserves the right to remove such links. OmniSans Publishing LLC and the Phoenix Capital Research Logo are registered trademarks of Phoenix Capital Research. OmniSans Publishing LLC - PO BOX 2912, Alexandria, VA 22301

3 Weekly Market Update The post-election night rally is now rapidly unwinding. As I ve pointed out again and again, this entire move was driven by intervention in the currency markets, namely, by ramping the $USD/Japanese Yen pair. Well that ramping is now officially, over. The $USD/Yen pair has rolled over and taken out critical support. This tells us, point blank, that stocks are on borrowed time. Indeed, the retail sector has already unwound the entire move since November So much for the notion that the US consumer is back. 3

4 Indeed, by the look of things, retail as a whole in a death spiral. Below is the number of store closings for major brands. Part of this is the impact of Amazon. The other part is the fact that the US economy has rolled over. 4

5 In terms of market action the retail sector as a whole is sporting a massive Head and Shoulders pattern. We ll probably not take out that neckline on the first try, but anyone who is betting on the US consumer coming back in a big way is likely in for a rude surprise. 5

6 Not far behind retailers are the banks. Since election night, the financial media has been proclaiming that Banks will be the single best sector to own. The reasoning for this is that banks make their money from the spread between the interest rate they pay depositors on savings and the interest rate they earn on their loans and we are supposedly in a rising rate environment which will lead to greater bank profits. The below chart argues otherwise. Starting in early February (incidentally this is around the time the Fed s GDP model began forecasting a collapse in growth) bank stocks have been collapsing. They are now at CRITICAL support. Once we take out this line, Banks will crash. 6

7 Bear in mind, that the Banks lead the general market during the post-election move higher. They are now doing the same to the downside. 7

8 The picture is even more brutal for regional banks. Support is LONG gone. This bounce won t last either. Another sector that is calling BS on the whole narrative of rising rates is Utilities. The Utility sector is primarily an income sector, meaning investors buy these stocks for their dividends, not for growth. As such, Utilities rally during falling rates (as investors buy for the yield) and fall when rates are rising. What does the below chart look like to you? Because to me, it looks like the Utilities (XLU) sector is rallying hard, meaning rates will be FALLING. The Fed is done with rate hikes. Watch, as soon as the stock market collapses Fed officials will start rolling back all talk of two more rate hikes this year. 8

9 The Real Estate Investment Trust or REIT industry is also signaling that the Fed is done hiking rates. REITs are an income play (this type of investment vehicle has to pay out 90% of its earnings in dividends). Because of this, when rates are rising, REITs collapse and when rates are falling, REITS soar. Take a look at this chart. This is a storage REIT. And it is VERY bullish. 9

10 We re getting on board. Action to Take: Buy Public Storage (PSA). Elsewhere, the long-us Treasury ETF (TLT) has just put in a higher low. All we need to do is take out that top blue line and the whole election rally or Trump trade is over. Again this chart is telling us that lower, NOT higher, rates are coming. 10

11 Similarly, the other asset class that suffered post-election night, Gold, is now on the cusp of taking out critical resistance. Our miners are about to explode higher. 11

12 My point with all of this is that the Trump unwind is finally underway. With that in mind, if you re looking for new positions, there is little value if any on the long side. There WILL be some incredible opportunities to load up in both the Energy and Emerging Market sectors once this market move ends. But right now is NOT the time. Oil is in very serious trouble. I would not go near it, or anything in the Energy sector before we hit $46. Ditto for Emerging Markets. I think this latest rally is overdone. We re due for a pullback to the blue line at which point I ll have a number of new individual plays for you. 12

13 On the short side however there are a number of appealing trades. However, before getting into them I once again want to stress that you should keep your position sizes in any of these relatively small. Do not put a huge amount of capital to work here. These positions are meant to be hedges while we wait for the market to bottom. Having gotten that out of the way First and foremost, Apple (AAPL) has a date with $

14 We are BEYOND overbought here. This is the single most owned stock in existence for mutual funds. And they re all about to get taken to the cleaners. Action to Take: Short Apple (AAPL). Another one is the Copper Miners ETF (COPX). All that hype and hope of an economic utopia is going to get unwound. We re going to the blue line. 14

15 Action to Take: SHORT the Copper Miners ETF (COPX) These two Shorts will serve us well while we wait for the markets to bottom. This concludes this week s market update. I m watching the markets closely and will issue updates as needed. Barring any new developments, you ll next hear from me next Wednesday in our longer monthly issue of Private Wealth Advisory. Until then Best Regards, Graham Summers Chief Market Strategist Phoenix Capital Research 15

16 OPEN POSITIONS STOCKS PORTFOLIO CURRENT GAIN/ POSITION SYMBOL DATE LOSS RPX Corp RPXC 8/5/15 $15.48 $ % Peru ETF EPU 12/7/16 $33.23 $ % Uranium ETF URA 6/8/16 $15.49 $ % Cameco CCJ 1/4/17 $10.69 $ % Coal ETF KOL 1/4/17 $12.59 $ % Agricultural -1% RJA 1/12/17 $6.46 Commodities ETF $6.42 Emerging markets 8% EEM 1/12/17 $36.60 ETF $39.71 China ETF ASHR 2/1/17 $24.91 $ % Brazil ETF EWZ 2/8/17 $37.58 $ % Utilities ETF XLU 2/8/17 $49.40 $ % Public Storage PSA 3/23/17 $ NEW! Prices as of market s close on 3/23/17. Gains include dividends 16

17 BONDS PORTFOLIO POSITION SYMBOL DATE CURRENT GAIN/ LOSS Nuveen Muni. Fund NVG 1/2/14 Emerging Market Bonds EMB 11/21/16 Long US Treasuries TLT 11/21/16 $13.12 $ $ $ % $ % $ % PRECIOUS METALS/ MINERS PORTFOLIO POSITION SYMBOL DATE CURRENT GAIN/ LOSS Gold 3/17/10 $1,120 $1, % Silver* 3/17/10 $16.23 $ % Gold Miners ETF GDX 10/5/16 $22.83 $ % Gold Mining Juniors 1% GDXJ ETF 10/5/16 $37.52 $36.26 Silver Wheaton SLW 10/5/16 $22.59 $ % Silver Standard 2% SSRI Resources 10/5/16 $10.30 $10.54 Barrick Gold ABX 10/5/16 $15.54 $ % New Gold NGD 10/5/16 $3.88 $ % Royal Gold RGLD 2/8/17 $71.36 $ % Silver Miners ETF SIL 3/15/17 $35.81 $ % Prices as of market s close on 3/23/17. Gains include dividends *Average price of $17.50 and $

18 SPECIAL SITUATIONS/HEDGES/SHORTS PORTFOLIO POSITION SYMBOL DATE CURRENT GAIN/ LOSS France ETF (SHORT) EWQ 9/16/16 $23.38 $ % Italy ETF (SHORT) EWI 9/16/16 $21.56 $ % Russell 2000 ETF (SHORT) IWM 12/14/16 $ $ % Financials ETF (SHORT) XLF 12/21/16 $23.61 $ % US Steel (SHORT) X 2/1/17 $31.33 $ % Apple (SHORT) AAPL 3/23/17 $ NEW SHORT! Copper Miners ETF COPX 3/23/17 $22.64 (SHORT) NEW SHORT! CASH/ CURRENCIES PORTFOLIO POSITION SYMBOL DATE CURRENT GAIN/ LOSS Euro Trust FXE 10/5/16 $ $ % Prices as of market s close on 3/15/17. Gains include dividends 18

19 RECENTLY CLOSED POSITIONS POSITION SYMBOL DATE SELL DATE SELL GAIN/ LOSS American Eagle AEO 5/26/16 $15.36 Outfitters (SHORT) 1/31/17 $ % Cliffs Nat Resources 19% CLF 2/8/17 $10.15 $12.10 (FIRST HALF) 2/13/17 Ambev ABEV 11/25/16 $4.96 2/23/17 $ % Cemex CX 11/25/16 $8.07 2/23/17 $8.69 8% Cliffs Nat Resources 10% CLF 2/8/17 $10.15 $11.13 (SECOND HALF) 2/23/17 Exxon XOM 9/24/14 $ /8/17 $ % Enterprise Products 9% EPD 11/31/16 $25.93 Partners 3/8/17 $27.83 Natural Gas ETF UNG 2/22/17 $6.57 8% $7.11 3/8/17 19