Weekly Market Update Part 2

Transcription

1 1 Weekly Market Update Part Phoenix Capital Research, Phoenix Capital Management Inc. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright laws of the United States and international treaties. This newsletter may only be used pursuant to the subscription agreement and any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including on the world wide web), in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Phoenix Capital Management Inc. All Rights Reserved.

2 Disclaimer: The information contained on this newsletter is for marketing purposes only. Nothing contained in this newsletter is intended to be, nor shall it be construed as, investment advice by Phoenix Capital Research or any of its affiliates, nor is it to be relied upon in making any investment or other decision. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed on this newsletter constitutes and offer to buy or sell any security or instrument or participate in any particular trading strategy. The information in the newsletter is not a complete description of the securities, markets or developments discussed. Information and opinions regarding individual securities do not mean that a security is recommended or suitable for a particular investor. Prior to making any investment decision, you are advised to consult with your broker, investment advisor or other appropriate tax or financial professional to determine the suitability of any investment. Opinions and estimates expressed on this newsletter constitute Phoenix Capital Research's judgment as of the date appearing on the opinion or estimate and are subject to change without notice. This information may not reflect events occurring after the date or time of publication. Phoenix Capital Research is not obligated to continue to offer information or opinions regarding any security, instrument or service. Information has been obtained from sources considered reliable, but its accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. Phoenix Capital Research and its officers, directors, employees, agents and/or affiliates may have executed, or may in the future execute, transactions in any of the securities or derivatives of any securities discussed on this newsletter. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance and is no guarantee of future results. Securities products are not FDIC insured, are not guaranteed by any bank and involve investment risk, including possible loss of entire value. Phoenix Capital Research, OmniSans Publishing LLC and Graham Summers shall not be responsible or have any liability for investment decisions based upon, or the results obtained from, the information provided. Phoenix Capital Research is not responsible for the content of other newsletters to which this one may be linked and reserves the right to remove such links. OmniSans Publishing LLC and the Phoenix Capital Research Logo are registered trademarks of Phoenix Capital Research. OmniSans Publishing LLC - PO BOX 2912, Alexandria, VA 22301

3 Weekly Market Update The first of this weekly market update was sent out on Monday because I sensed a major turn was at hand for the markets. It is now clear that the turn concerns the reflation trade. Indeed, I m getting numerous signals that this trend is ready for its next leg up. Inflation expectations have stopped grinding lower and appear to be putting in a base. You ll note that the above chart looks remarkably similar to the chart for growth/reflation stocks such as US Steel (X) 3

4 as well as the industrial metals complex (though the moves there are not as dramatic due to the diversification of numerous metals). 4

5 Moreover, Copper is preparing to make a breakout to the upside of its triangle pattern: Inflation expectations rising, pro-growth plays rising, industrial metals rising These charts all point to REFLATON. The flipside of this trend will be a sharp sell-off in bonds as yields rise. Indeed, I note a similar pattern as the above charts developing in the 10-Year Treasury yield. 5

6 As yields rise in Treasuries, we re going to see a sell-off in bonds across the board. This move appears to already be starting. High Yield or Junk bonds are about to break their bull market trendline. My initial downside target is the red line: 6

7 Similarly, long-term Treasuries (TLT) have slammed into resistance right as they complete a rising wedge pattern. My initial target for the move down is the red line around

8 Looking at these charts, I want to reduce our exposure to bonds to a minimum. Our last remaining bond play is the Nuveen AMT-Free Municipal Credit Income Fund (NVG). Indeed, NVG s recent move upwards looks complete. Let s close this play now and revisit once it corrects down to the red line at $14.30 Action to Take: Sell the Nuveen AMT-Free Municipal Credit Income Fund (NVG). I m reducing our Bond allocation to 0% in our model portfolio. The freed up capital should be put to work in stocks in our new pro-reflation plays (the ones from Monday s update: URA, CCJ, FCX, RIO, X, or the new plays below) and in cash for now. Indeed, some other reflation plays have caught my eye. The Peru ETF (EPU) looks ready to rip higher. 8

9 Action to Take: Buy the Peru ETF (EPU) Chevron (CVX) has broken out of a falling wedge and HELD the break. The next leg up is approaching. 9

10 Action to Take: Buy Chevron (CVX) Finally, Enterprise Products Partners (EPD) has hit our target price for a buy: Action to Take: Buy Enterprise Products Partner (EPD). This concludes this week s weekly market update. I m watching the markets closely and will issue updates as needed. Barring any new developments you ll next hear from me next Wednesday in our longer monthly issue of Private Wealth Advisory. Until then Best Regards, Graham Summers Chief Market Strategist Phoenix Capital Research 10

11 OPEN POSITIONS STOCKS PORTFOLIO CURRENT GAIN/ POSITION SYMBOL DATE LOSS RPX Corp RPXC 8/5/15 $15.48 $ % Agricultural -6% RJA 1/12/17 $6.46 Commodities ETF $6.08 China ETF ASHR 2/1/17 $24.98 $ % Public Storage PSA 3/23/17 $ $ % Clear Energy ETF PBW 4/19/17 $4.06 $4.26 5% Biotech ETF IBB 4/26/17 $ $ % Verizon VZ 4/26/17 $47.17 $ % Vietnam ETF VNM 6/7/17 $14.64 $ % Baidu BIDU 6/7/17 $ $ % Transocean RIG 6/15/17 $8.56 $7.87-8% Pioneer Natural -2% PXD 6/15/17 $ $ Resources Uranium URA 6/15/17 $12.76 $ % Cameco CCJ 6/15/17 $9.14 $9.11 0% Freeport McMoRan FCX 6/19/17 $11.53 $ % Rio Tinto RIO 6/19/17 $39.48 $ % US Steel X 6/19/17 $20.83 $ % Peru ETF EPU 6/22/17 $33.64 NEW! Chevron CVX 6/22/17 $ NEW! Enterprise Products EPD $26.00! 6/22/17 NEW Partners Prices as of 6/22/17 at market s close. Gains include dividends 11

12 PRECIOUS METALS/ MINERS PORTFOLIO POSITION SYMBOL DATE CURRENT GAIN/ LOSS Gold 3/17/10 $1,120 $1, % Silver* 3/17/10 $16.23 $ % Gold Miners ETF** GDX 10/5/16 $22.45 $ % Gold Mining Juniors 1% GDXJ ETF*** 10/5/16 $34.72 $33.61 Wheaton Precious -12% WPM Metals Corp 10/5/16 $22.59 $19.93 New Gold NGD 10/5/16 $3.88 $ % Barrick Gold ABX 4/26/17 $16.92 $ % Silver Mining ETF SIL 4/26/17 $34.44 $ % Silver Standard SSRI 4/26/17 $9.94 $9.72-2% First Majestic Silver AG 5/12/17 $8.70 $8.16-6% Randgold Resources GOLD 5/12/17 $93.25 SPECIAL SITUATIONS/HEDGES/SHORTS PORTFOLIO POSITION SYMBOL DATE $89.72 CURRENT -4% GAIN/ LOSS France ETF (SHORT) EWQ 9/16/16 $23.38 $ % Italy ETF (SHORT) EWI 9/16/16 $21.56 $ % Russell 2000 ETF (SHORT) IWM 12/14/16 $ $ % Apple (SHORT) AAPL 3/23/17 $ $ % Facebook FB 5/31/17 $ $ % Alphabet GOOGL 5/31/17 $ $ % Prices as of 6/22/17 at market s close. Gains include dividends *Average price of $17.50 and $14.97 ** Average price of $22.83 and $22.07 *** Average price of $37.52 and $

13 CASH/ CURRENCIES PORTFOLIO POSITION SYMBOL DATE CURRENT GAIN/ LOSS Euro Trust FXE 10/5/16 $ $ % Prices as of 6/22/17 at market s close. Gains include dividends 13

14 RECENTLY CLOSED POSITIONS POSITION SYMBOL DATE SELL DATE SELL GAIN/ LOSS American Eagle AEO 5/26/16 $15.36 Outfitters (SHORT) 1/31/17 $ % Cliffs Nat Resources 19% CLF 2/8/17 $10.15 $12.10 (FIRST HALF) 2/13/17 Ambev ABEV 11/25/16 $4.96 2/23/17 $ % Cemex CX 11/25/16 $8.07 2/23/17 $8.69 8% Cliffs Nat Resources 10% CLF 2/8/17 $10.15 $11.13 (SECOND HALF) 2/23/17 Exxon XOM 9/24/14 $ /8/17 $ % Enterprise Products 9% EPD 11/31/16 $25.93 Partners 3/8/17 $27.83 Natural Gas ETF UNG 2/22/17 $6.57 3/8/17 $7.11 8% Emerging markets ETF EEM 1/12/17 $ /10/17 $ % Barrick Gold ABX 10/5/16 $ /10/17 $ % Uranium ETF URA 6/8/16 $ /12/17 $ % Cameco CCJ 1/4/17 $ /12/17 $ % Coal ETF KOL 1/4/17 $ /12/17 $ % Silver Standard 10% SSRI Resources 10/5/16 $ /12/17 $11.32 Royal Gold RGLD 2/8/17 $ /12/17 $ % Silver Miners SIL 3/15/17 $ /12/17 $ % US Steel (SHORT) X 2/1/17 $ /13/17 $ % Copper Miners ETF COPX 3/23/17 $22.64 (SHORT) 4/18/17 $ % Financials ETF (SHORT) XLF 12/21/16 $ /26/17 $ % 14

15 RECENTLY CLOSED POSITIONS CONTINUED POSITION SYMBOL DATE SELL DATE SELL GAIN/ LOSS 5% EPU 12/7/16 $33.23 Peru ETF 5/17/17 $34.77 Brazil ETF EWZ 2/8/17 $ /17/17 $ % Utilities ETF XLU 2/8/17 $ /17/17 $ % Solar Energy ETF TAN 4/19/17 $ /17/17 $ % Royal Gold RGLD 4/26/17 $ /17/17 $ % Southwestern Energy SWN 3/30/17 $8.15 5/24/17 $ % Gulfport Energy GPOR 3/30/17 $ /24/17 $ % US Oil Fund USO 4/26/17 $ /24/17 $ % Exxon Mobil XOM 5/3/17 $ /24/17 $ % Energy ETF (SHORT) XLE 5/24/17 $ /5/17 $ % Emerging Mkts Bond ETF EMB 11/21/16 $ /7/17 $ % Long US Treasuries TLT 11/21/16 $ /15/17 $ % Nuveen Enhanced Free $13.12 Muni Credit Fund NVG 1/2/14 6/22/17 $ % 15