Weekly Market Update

Transcription

1 1 Weekly Market Update Phoenix Capital Research, Phoenix Capital Management Inc. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright laws of the United States and international treaties. This newsletter may only be used pursuant to the subscription agreement and any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including on the world wide web), in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Phoenix Capital Management Inc. All Rights Reserved.

2 Disclaimer: The information contained on this newsletter is for marketing purposes only. Nothing contained in this newsletter is intended to be, nor shall it be construed as, investment advice by Phoenix Capital Research or any of its affiliates, nor is it to be relied upon in making any investment or other decision. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed on this newsletter constitutes and offer to buy or sell any security or instrument or participate in any particular trading strategy. The information in the newsletter is not a complete description of the securities, markets or developments discussed. Information and opinions regarding individual securities do not mean that a security is recommended or suitable for a particular investor. Prior to making any investment decision, you are advised to consult with your broker, investment advisor or other appropriate tax or financial professional to determine the suitability of any investment. Opinions and estimates expressed on this newsletter constitute Phoenix Capital Research's judgment as of the date appearing on the opinion or estimate and are subject to change without notice. This information may not reflect events occurring after the date or time of publication. Phoenix Capital Research is not obligated to continue to offer information or opinions regarding any security, instrument or service. Information has been obtained from sources considered reliable, but its accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. Phoenix Capital Research and its officers, directors, employees, agents and/or affiliates may have executed, or may in the future execute, transactions in any of the securities or derivatives of any securities discussed on this newsletter. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance and is no guarantee of future results. Securities products are not FDIC insured, are not guaranteed by any bank and involve investment risk, including possible loss of entire value. Phoenix Capital Research, OmniSans Publishing LLC and Graham Summers shall not be responsible or have any liability for investment decisions based upon, or the results obtained from, the information provided. Phoenix Capital Research is not responsible for the content of other newsletters to which this one may be linked and reserves the right to remove such links. OmniSans Publishing LLC and the Phoenix Capital Research Logo are registered trademarks of Phoenix Capital Research. OmniSans Publishing LLC - PO BOX 2912, Alexandria, VA 22301

3 The three major themes we ve been following continue to unfold in the markets. Those themes are: Weekly Market Update ( ) 1) A Reflation Trade in industrial metals/ cyclical growth plays. 2) Precious metals beginning their next leg up. 3) The overall market, particularly Tech stocks, forming a top of sorts. Regarding #1, we re getting more signals that reflation is the big trend for the second half of Oil Service Providers have broken out of a downtrend channel. This is a buy signal for many Oil services companies. In particular I like the deep water drilling company, Helix Energy Solutions (HLX). 3

4 That s a beautiful chart. We re going to $8.00. And if things really ignite, $10.00 is coming within six months. Action to Take: Buy Helix Energy Solutions (HLX) In the oil shale space, I like Southwestern Energy (SWN). 4

5 As you can see, SWN has just broken out of a MASSIVE falling wedge pattern. The next leg up should take us to at least $9. This is worth a wager. Action to Take: Buy Southwestern Energy (SWN) Another energy company I like that is more of a traditional exploration and production play is EOG Resources (EOG). 5

6 Action to Take: Buy EOG Resources (EOG) Which brings us to #2: precious metals beginning their next leg up. Perhaps the single best chart for picking out turning points for Gold is the Gold Miners to Gold ratio. Consider this a means of looking at beta in Gold: when it breaks out to the upside the moves are immense. We re about to do this: 6

7 If we get a confirmed breakout, the bottom is DEFITIVELY in and we re about to see a roaring leg up for Gold miners. I expect this to hit within the next week or so. Silver looks like it s about to make a similar move with the Silver Miners to Silver ratio right at the point of a huge triangle pattern. This looks like a major breakout is just days away. 7

8 Patience is needed here. This breakout is taking longer than I thought, but a BIG move is coming Which brings us to #3 in our list above: the overall market lead by Tech appears to be forming a top. The problem with stock manias is that once the markets enter a period of complete irrationality (like the one we re seeing in Tech stocks today), it takes time for investors to let go of their delusions. With that in mind, the NASDAQ ETF (QQQ) has rallied hard and is now forming a megaphone pattern. 8

9 This move is complete. The next move should be down to 132. Indeed, taking a look at the FANG plays (Facebook, Apple, Netflix, and Google/Alphabet), it s clear that this spike higher was driven by just two of them (Facebook and Netflix). Facebook (FB) has gone absolutely vertical in a blow off top 9

10 as has Netflix (NFLX) due to earnings announcements. 10

11 Meanwhile Apple (AAPL) remains well below its previous top As is Alphabet (GOOGL) 11

12 Put simply, it used to be that FIVE tech plays were driving the market. We re now down to just two. Elsewhere in the markets, the Russell 2000 is in a megaphone pattern that looks complete. Believe it or not, the microcap index is in fact following the Dow Transports. And the Dow Transports is now collapsing. 12

13 And finally, the S&P 500 is in the process of completing a bearish rising wedge pattern: another topping pattern. 13

14 I m watching the markets closely and may have more to you later this week. But right now the key three themes we re watching are all unfolding beautifully. This concludes this week s weekly market update for Private Wealth Advisory. Barring any new developments, you ll next hear from me next Wednesday in our longer monthly issue of Private Wealth Advisory. Until then Best Regards, Graham Summers Chief Market Strategist Phoenix Capital Research 14

15 OPEN POSITIONS STOCKS PORTFOLIO CURRENT GAIN/ POSITION SYMBOL DATE LOSS RPX Corp RPXC 8/5/15 $15.48 $ % Agricultural 0% RJA 1/12/17 $6.46 Commodities ETF $6.44 China ETF ASHR 2/1/17 $24.98 $ % Public Storage PSA 3/23/17 $ $ % Biotech ETF IBB 4/26/17 $ $ % Verizon VZ 4/26/17 $47.17 $ % Vietnam ETF VNM 6/7/17 $14.64 $ % Baidu BIDU 6/7/17 $ $ % Transocean RIG 6/15/17 $8.56 $8.84 3% Pioneer Natural 3% PXD 6/15/17 $ $ Resources Uranium URA 6/15/17 $12.76 $ % Cameco CCJ 6/15/17 $9.14 $ % Freeport McMoRan FCX 6/19/17 $11.53 $ % US Steel X 6/19/17 $20.83 $ % Peru ETF EPU 6/22/17 $33.64 $ % Chevron CVX 6/22/17 $ $ % Helix Energy Solutions HLX 7/19/17 $6.14 NEW! Southwestern Energy SWN 7/19/17 $6.13 NEW! EOG Resources EOG 7/19/17 $94.31 NEW! Prices as of market s close on 7/19/17. Gains include dividends 15

16 PRECIOUS METALS/ MINERS PORTFOLIO POSITION SYMBOL DATE CURRENT GAIN/ LOSS Gold 3/17/10 $1,120 $1, % Silver* 3/17/10 $16.23 $ % Gold Miners ETF** GDX 10/5/16 $22.45 $ % Gold Mining Juniors -1% GDXJ ETF*** 10/5/16 $34.72 $32.89 Wheaton Precious -13% WPM Metals Corp 10/5/16 $22.59 $19.57 New Gold NGD 10/5/16 $3.88 $ % Barrick Gold ABX 4/26/17 $16.92 $ % Silver Mining ETF SIL 4/26/17 $34.44 $ % Silver Standard SSRI 4/26/17 $9.94 $9.84-1% First Majestic Silver AG 5/12/17 $8.70 $7.93-9% Randgold Resources GOLD 5/12/17 $93.25 SPECIAL SITUATIONS/HEDGES/SHORTS PORTFOLIO POSITION SYMBOL DATE $90.83 CURRENT -3% GAIN/ LOSS France ETF (SHORT) EWQ 9/16/16 $23.38 $ % Italy ETF (SHORT) EWI 9/16/16 $21.56 $ % Russell 2000 ETF (SHORT) IWM 12/14/16 $ $ % Apple (SHORT) AAPL 3/23/17 $ $ % Facebook FB 5/31/17 $ $ % Alphabet GOOGL 5/31/17 $ $ % Prices as of market s close on 7/19/17. Gains include dividends *Average price of $17.50 and $14.97 ** Average price of $22.83 and $22.07 *** Average price of $37.52 and $

17 CASH/ CURRENCIES PORTFOLIO POSITION SYMBOL DATE CURRENT GAIN/ LOSS Euro Trust FXE 10/5/16 $ $ % Prices as of market s close on 7/19/17. Gains include dividends 17

18 RECENTLY CLOSED POSITIONS POSITION SYMBOL DATE SELL DATE SELL GAIN/ LOSS American Eagle AEO 5/26/16 $15.36 Outfitters (SHORT) 1/31/17 $ % Cliffs Nat Resources 19% CLF 2/8/17 $10.15 $12.10 (FIRST HALF) 2/13/17 Ambev ABEV 11/25/16 $4.96 2/23/17 $ % Cemex CX 11/25/16 $8.07 2/23/17 $8.69 8% Cliffs Nat Resources 10% CLF 2/8/17 $10.15 $11.13 (SECOND HALF) 2/23/17 Exxon XOM 9/24/14 $ /8/17 $ % Enterprise Products 9% EPD 11/31/16 $25.93 Partners 3/8/17 $27.83 Natural Gas ETF UNG 2/22/17 $6.57 3/8/17 $7.11 8% Emerging markets ETF EEM 1/12/17 $ /10/17 $ % Barrick Gold ABX 10/5/16 $ /10/17 $ % Uranium ETF URA 6/8/16 $ /12/17 $ % Cameco CCJ 1/4/17 $ /12/17 $ % Coal ETF KOL 1/4/17 $ /12/17 $ % Silver Standard 10% SSRI Resources 10/5/16 $ /12/17 $11.32 Royal Gold RGLD 2/8/17 $ /12/17 $ % Silver Miners SIL 3/15/17 $ /12/17 $ % US Steel (SHORT) X 2/1/17 $ /13/17 $ % Copper Miners ETF COPX 3/23/17 $22.64 (SHORT) 4/18/17 $ % Financials ETF (SHORT) XLF 12/21/16 $ /26/17 $ % 18

19 RECENTLY CLOSED POSITIONS CONTINUED POSITION SYMBOL DATE SELL DATE SELL GAIN/ LOSS 5% EPU 12/7/16 $33.23 Peru ETF 5/17/17 $34.77 Brazil ETF EWZ 2/8/17 $ /17/17 $ % Utilities ETF XLU 2/8/17 $ /17/17 $ % Solar Energy ETF TAN 4/19/17 $ /17/17 $ % Royal Gold RGLD 4/26/17 $ /17/17 $ % Southwestern Energy SWN 3/30/17 $8.15 5/24/17 $ % Gulfport Energy GPOR 3/30/17 $ /24/17 $ % US Oil Fund USO 4/26/17 $ /24/17 $ % Exxon Mobil XOM 5/3/17 $ /24/17 $ % Energy ETF (SHORT) XLE 5/24/17 $ /5/17 $ % Emerging Mkts Bond ETF EMB 11/21/16 $ /7/17 $ % Long US Treasuries TLT 11/21/16 $ /15/17 $ % Nuveen Enhanced Free NVG 1/2/14 $ /22/17 $ % Muni Credit Fund Rio Tinto RIO 6/19/17 $ /10/17 $ % Clear Energy ETF PBW 4/19/17 $4.06 7/10/17 $ % Enterprise Products EPD $26.00 $ % 6/22/17 Partners 7/17/17 US oil Fund USO 6/28/17 $9.20 7/17/17 $9.57 4% 19