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2 U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Malcolm Baldrige, Secretary Robert D. Dederick, Assistant Secretary for Economic Affairs BUREAU OF ECONOMIC ALYSIS George Jaszi, Director Allan H. Young, Deputy Director Charles A. Waite, Acting Associate Director for National Analysis and Projections Feliks Tamm, Editor This report is prepared in the Statistical Indicators Division of the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Technical staff and their responsibilities for the publication are Barry A. Beckman Technical supervision and review Brian D. Kajutti Composite indexes Morton Somer Seasonal adjustments Betty F. Tunstall Data collection and compilation (Phone: --) The cooperation of government and private agencies that provide data is gratefully acknowledged. Agencies furnishing data are indicated in the list of series titles and sources at the back of this report. This publication is prepared under the general guidance of a technical committee under the auspices of the Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards. The Committee consists of the following persons: Beatrice N. Vaccara, Chairman, Bureau of Industrial Economics, U.S. Department of Commerce Joseph W. Duncan, Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards Ronald E. Kutscher, Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor J. Cortland Peret, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Charles A. Waite, Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce ABOUT THIS REPORT BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST (BCD) provides a monthly look at many of the economic time series found most useful by business analysts and forecasters. The original BCD, which began publication in 96 under the title Business Cycle Developments, emphasized the cyclical indicators approach to the analysis of business conditions and prospects. The report's contents were based largely on the list of leading, roughly coincident, and lagging indicators maintained by the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. In 968, BCD was expanded to increase its usefulness to analysts using other approaches to business conditions analysis. Principal additions to the report were series from the national income and product accounts and series based on surveys of businessmen's and consumers' anticipations and intentions. The composite indexes were added at that time, and the report's present title was adopted. The dominant feature of the current BCD is the cyclical indicators section, in which each business cycle indicator is assigned a three-way timing classification according to its behavior at peaks, at troughs, and at all turns. This section is supplemented by a section containing other important economic measures. The method of presentation is explained in the introductory text which begins on page. Most of the data contained in this report also are published by their source agencies. A series finding guide and a complete list of series titles and sources can be found at the back of the report. Cyclical Indicators are economic time series which have been singled out as leaders, coinciders, or laggers based on their general conformity to cyclical movements in aggregate economic activity. In this report, cyclical indicators are classified both by economic process and by their average timing at business cycle peaks, at business cycle troughs, and at peaks and troughs combined. These indicators have been selected primarily on the basis of their cyclical behavior, but they also have proven useful in forecasting, measuring, and interpreting short-term fluctuations in aggregate economic activity. Other Economic Measures provide additional information for the evaluation of current business conditions and prospects. They include selected components of the national income and produd accounts; measures of prices, wages, anc productivity; measures of the labor force employment, and unemployment; economic data on Federal, State, and local government ac tivities; measures of U.S. international transac tions; and selected economic comparisons witt major foreign countries. Annual subscription price: $. domestic, $68.7 foreign. Single copy price: $.7 domestic, $.9 foreign. Foreign airmail rates are available upon request. Address all correspondence concerning subscriptions to the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Governmen Printing Office, Washington, D.C.. Makchecks payable to the Superintendent o Documents.

3 BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST New Features and Changes for This Issue iii Seasonal Adjustments MCD Moving Averages Reference Turning Dates Part I. Cyclical Indicators Part II. Other Important Economic Measures How To Read Charts How To Locate a Series Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes 6 SEPTEMBER 98 Data Through Volume, Number 9 Chart Table Al Composite Indexes 6 A Leading Index Components A Coincident Index Components A Lagging Index Components Bl Employment and Unemployment 6 6 B Production and Income 9 6 B Consumption, Trade, Orders, and Deliveries 6 B Fixed Capital Investment 6 B Inventories and Inventory Investment 6 68 B6 Prices, Costs, and Profits 8 69 B7 Money and Credit 7 Cl Diffusion Indexes 6 7 C Selected Diffusion Index Components 77 C Rates of Change 9 The Secretary of Commerce has determined of funds for printing this periodical has been apthat the publication of this periodical is proved by the Director of the Office of necessary in the transaction of the public Management and Budget through, business required by law of this Department. Use 98

4 ItCII PART ii. OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES B9 TIOL INCOME AND PRODUCT Chart Table Jd~\ GNPand Personal Income 8 AJ Personal Consumption Expenditures 8 _A I Gross Private Domestic Investment 8 A~l Government Purchases of Goods and Services 8 IAJ Foreign Trade 8 A6j National Income and Its Components 8 JV7J Saving, 6 8.A8j Shares of GNP and National Income 7 8 7$ PRICES WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY Bl Price Movements 8 B : Wages and Productivity 9 87 H Cl ] LABOR FORCE, EMPLOYMENT, AND UNEMPLOYMENT Civilian Labor Force and Major Components 89 Q GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES Dl _ Receipts and Expenditures 9 D "* Defense Indicators 9 Of U.S. INTERTIOL TRANSACTIONS El ; Merchandise Trade 6 9 E Goods and Services Movements 7 9 i,h INTERTIOL COMPARISONS Fl ' Industrial Production 8 9 F Consumer Prices 9 F Stock Prices 96 PART III APPENDIXES A. MCD and Related Measures of Variability ( 98 issue) QCD and Related Measures of Variability ( 98 issue) B. Current Adjustment Factors ( 98 issue) C. Historical Data for Selected Series 97 D. Descriptions and Sources Of Series (See "Alphabetical Index Series Finding Guide") E. Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions ( 98 issue) F. Specific Peak and Trough Dates for Selected Indicators ( 98 issue) G. Experimental Data and Analyses Alphabetical Index Series Finding Guide Titles and Sources of Series

5 Readers are invited to submit comments and suggestions concerning this publication. Address them to Feliks Tamm, Chief, Statistical Indicators Division, Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce, Washington, D.C. NEW FEATURES AND CHANGES FOR THIS ISSUE Changes in this issue are as follows:. Industrial production indexes (series 7, 7-76, 7, and 966) have been revised by the source agency for the period 98 to date to include more recently available data and new seasonal factors. Other series affected by this revision are series 6, 8, and 8. Further information concerning this revision may be obtained from the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Division of Research and Statistics, Business Conditions Section.. The series on Total liquid assets (series ) has been revised by the source agency for the period 978 to date. This revision reflects the benchmarking of the retail repurchase agreements component. Further information concerning this revision may be obtained from the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Division of Research and Statistics, Banking Section. Total private borrowing (series ) has been revised by the source agency for the period 9 to date to reflect the incorporation of recent revisions in national income accounts data. Further information concerning this revision may be obtained from the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Division of Research and Statistics, Flow of Funds and Savings Section.. Appendix C contains historical data for series 6-8,,,,, 7,, 6, 8, 6, 69, 78, 6, 7, 88, 96, 96, and 96.. Appendix G contains cyclical comparisons for series,,,, 6, and 8. A limited number of changes are made from time to time to incorporate recent findings of economic research, newly available time series, and revisions made by source agencies in concept, composition, comparability, coverage, seasonal adjustment methods, benchmark data, etc. Changes may result in revisions of data, additions or deletions of series, changes in placement of series in relation to other series, changes in composition of indexes, etc. The issue of BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST is scheduled for release on. in

6 SIX BEA PROJECTS FOR ECONOMIC ALYSIS BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST A monthly report for analyzing economic fluctuations over a short span of years. This report brings together many of the economic time series most useful to business analysts and forecasters. In the cyclical indicators section, each of about business cycle indicators is assigned a three-way timing classification according to its cyclical behavior at peaks, troughs, and all turns. This section also includes important analytical measures, such as composite indexes of leading, coincident, and lagging indicators and selected diffusion indexes. A second section contains other important economic data on prices, wages, productivity, government and defense-related activities, U.S. international transactions, and international comparisons. About time series are shown in analytical graphs that help to evaluate business conditions and prospects. Current data are shown in accompanying tables. Appendixes provide historical data, seasonal adjustment factors, measures of variability, cyclical comparisons, and other useful information. A computer tape containing data for most of the series is available for purchase. HANDBOOK OF CYCLICAL INDICATORS A reference volume containing valuable background information for users of Business Conditions Digest. This recurrent report provides descriptive and analytical information on the economic time series presented monthly in Business Conditions Digest. Included are series descriptions, historical data, and measures of variability. For the cyclical indicators and composite indexes, special tables show detailed scoring measures and average timing at cyclical peaks and troughs. Verbal and algebraic explanations of the composite index methodology are also provided. LONG TERM ECONOMIC GROWTH A report for the study of economic trends over a long span of years: This report provides a comprehensive, long-range view of the U.S. economy by presenting relevant statistical time series in easy-to-follow analytical charts and convenient data tables. It is a basic research document for economists, historians, investors, teachers, and students, bringing together in one volume a complete statistical basis for the study of long-term economic trends. A computer tape file of the time series included in the report is available for purchase. COMPUTER PROGRAMS FOR TIME SERIES ALYSIS The source statements for FORTRAN IV programs used by BEA in its analysis of time series are available on a single computer tape. SEASOL ADJUSTMENT PROGRAMS Two variants of the Census computer program measure and analyze seasonal, trading-day, cyclical, and irregular fluctuations. They are particularly useful in analyzing economic fluctuations that take place within a year. The X-ll variant is used for adjusting monthly data and the X-Q for quarterly data. These programs make additive as well as multiplicative adjustments and compute many summary and analytical measures. INDEX PROGRAM This program computes composite and diffusion indexes and summary measures of the properties of each index. TIME SERIES PROCESSOR This program, through simple commands, performs a variety of arithmetic, statistical, and manipulative operations on time series data. SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS current economic developments. A monthly report for analyzing This report provides a useful combination of current data for more than, statistical series and significant articles analyzing economic developments. These data and analyses include such areas as the national income and product accounts, the balance of payments accounts, plant and equipment expenditures, regional personal income, and the input-output accounts. For further information (including prices and ordering instructions) on any of these items, please write to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce, Washington, D.C. BUSINESS STATISTICS A biennial reference volume containing statistical series reported currently in the Survey of Current Business. This report provides historical data back to 97 for nearly, time series. The series are accompanied by concise descriptions as to their composition, methods of compilation, comparability, revisions, and availability. Also listed are the names and addresses of organizations that provide the basic data for the series. IV

7 METHOD OF PRESENTATION This report is organized into two major parts. Part I, Cyclical Indicators, includes about time series which have been found to conform well to broad fluctuations in comprehensive measures of economic activity. Nearly three-fourths of these are individual indicators, the rest are related analytical measures: Composite indexes, diffusion indexes, and rates of change. Part II, Other Important Economic Measures, covers over series which are valuable to business analysts and forecasters but which do not conform well enough to business cycles to qualify as cyclical indicators. (There are a few exceptions: Four series which are included in part I are also shown in part II to complete the systematic presentation of certain sets of data, such as real GNP and unemployment.) The largest section of part II consists of quarterly series from the national income and product accounts; other sections relate to prices, labor force, government and defense-related activities, and international transactions and comparisons. The two parts are further divided into sections (see table of contents), and each of these sections is described briefly in this introduction. Data are shown both in charts and in tables. Most charts begin with 96, but those for the composite indexes and their components (part I, section A) begin with 9, and a few charts use a two-panel format which covers only the period since 969. Except for section F in part II, charts contain shading which indicates periods of recession in general business activity. The tables contain data for only the last few years. The historical data for the various time series are contained in the 977 Handbook of Cyclical Indicators. In addition to the charts and tables described above, each issue contains a summary table which shows the current behavior of many of the series. Appendixes present seasonal adjustment factors, measures of variability, specific cycle turning dates, cyclical comparison charts, and other information of analytical interest. An index appears at the back of each issue. It should be noted that the series numbers used are for identification purposes only and do not reflect precise relationships or order. However, all series considered as cyclical indicators are numbered in the range to 99. Seasonal Adjustments Adjustments for average seasonal fluctuations are often necessary to bring out the underlying trends of time series. Such adjustments allow for the effects of repetitive intrayear variations resulting primarily from normal differences in weather conditions and from various institutional arrangements. Variations attributable to holidays are usually accounted for by the seasonal adjustment process; however, a separate holiday adjustment is occasionally required for holidays with variable dates, such as Easter. An additional adjustment is sometimes necessary for series which contain considerable variation due to the number of working or trading days in each month. As used in this report, the term "seasonal adjustment" includes trading-day and holiday adjustments where they have been made. Most of the series in this report are presented in seasonally adjusted form and, in most cases, these are the official figures released by the source agencies. However, for the special purposes of this report, a number of series not ordinarily published in seasonally adjusted form are shown here on a seasonally adjusted basis. MCD Moving Averages Month-to-month changes in a series are often dominated by erratic movements. MCD (months for cyclical dominance) is an estimate of the appropriate span over which to observe cyclical movements in a monthly series. (See appendix A.) It is the smallest span of months for which the average change in the cyclical factor is greater than that in the irregular factor. The more erratic a series is, the larger the MCD will be; thus, MCD is for the smoothest series and 6 for the most erratic. MCD moving averages (that is, moving averages of the period equal to MCD) tend to have about the same degree of smoothness for all series. Thus, a -term moving average of a series with an MCD of will show its cyclical movements about as clearly as the seasonally adjusted data for a series with an MCD of. The charts in this report generally include centered MCD moving averages for those series with an MCD greater than. The seasonally adjusted data are also plotted to indicate their variation about the moving averages and to provide observations for the most recent months. Reference Turning Dates The historical business cycle turning dates used in this report are those designated by the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. (NBER). They mark the approximate dates when, according to NBER, aggregate economic activity reached its cyclical high or low levels. As a matter of general practice, neither new reference turning dates nor the shading for recessions will be entered on the charts until after both the new reference peak and the new reference trough bounding the shaded area have been designated. The historical reference turning dates are subject to periodic review by NBER and on occasion are changed as a result of revisions in important economic time series. The dates shown in this publication for the 9-97 time period are those determined by a 97 review. Since then, NBER has designated turning points for the recession and the 98 recession. Part I. CYCLICAL INDICATORS Business cycles have been defined as sequences of expansion and contraction in various economic processes that show up as major fluctuations in aggregate economic activity that is, in comprehensive measures of production, employment, income, and trade. While recurrent and pervasive, business cycles of historical experience have been definitely nonperiodic and have varied greatly in duration and intensity, reflecting changes in economic systems, conditions, policies, and outside disturbances. One of the techniques developed in business cycle research and widely used as a tool for analyzing current economic conditions and prospects is the cyclical indicators approach. This approach identifies certain economic time series as tending to lead, coincide with or lag behind the broad movements in aggregate economic activity. Such indicators have been selected and analyzed by NBER in a series of studies published between 98 and 967. During the 97-7 period, a new comprehensive review of cyclical indicators was carried out by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) with the cooperation of the NBER research staff. The present format and content of part I of BCD are based on the results of that study. Section A. Composite Indexes and Their Components All cyclical indicators have been evaluated according to six major characteristics: Economic significance, statistical adequacy, consistency of timing at business cycle peaks and troughs, conformity to business expansions and contractions, smoothness, and prompt availability (currency). A formal, detailed weighting scheme was developed and used to assess each series by all of the above criteria. (See articles in the and 97 issues of BCD.) The resulting scores relate to cyclical behavior of the series during the period This analysis produced a new list of indicators classified by economic process and typical timing at business cycle peaks and troughs. (See tables on page and text below relating to section B.) This information, particularly the scores relating to consistency of timing, served as a basis for the selection of series to be included in the composite indexes. The indexes incorporate the best-scoring series from many different economic-process groups and combine those with similar timing behavior, using their overall performance scores as weights. Because they use series of historically tested usefulness and given timing characteristics (for example, leading at both peaks and troughs), with diversified economic coverage and a minimum of duplication, composite indexes give more reliable signals over time than do any of the individual indicators. Furthermore, much of the

8 Cross-Classification of Cyclical Indicators by Economic Process and Cyclical Timing A. Timing at Business Cycle Peaks Nv Economic \Process N. >. Cyclical \ Timing N< EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOY- MENT (8 series) II. PRODUCTION AND INCOME ( series) Ml. CONSUMPTION, TRADE, ORDERS, AND DELIVERIES ( series) IV. FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT (8 series) V. INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT (9 series) VI. PRICES f COSTS, AND PROFITS (7 series) VII. MONEY AND CREDIT (6 series) LEADING (L) INDICATORS (6 series) Marginal employment adjustments (6 series) Job vacancies ( series) Comprehensive employment ( series) Comprehensive unemployment ( series) Capacity utilization ( series) New and unfilled orders and deliveries (6 series) Consumption ( series) Formation of business enterprises ( series) Business investment commitments ( series) Residential construction ( series) Inventory investment ( series) Inventories on hand and on order ( series) Stock prices ( series) Commodity prices ( series) Profits and profit margins (7 series) Cash flows ( series) Money flows ( series) Real money supply ( series) Credit flows ( series) Credit difficulties ( series) Bank reserves ( series) nterest rates ( series) ROUGHLY COINCIDENT(C) INDICATORS ( series) Comprehensive employment ( series) Comprehensive output and real income ( series) Industrial production ( series) Consumption and trade ( series) Backlog of investment commitments ( series) Business Investment expenditures ( series) Velocity of money ( series) Interest rates ( series) LAGGING (Lg) INDICATORS (8 series) Duration of unemployment ( series) Business investment expenditures ( series) Inventories on hand and on order ( series) Unit labor costs and labor share ( series) nterest rates ( series) Outstanding debt ( series) TIMING UNCLASSIFIED (U) (8 series) Comprehensive employment ( series) Trade ( series) Business Investment commitments ( series) Commodity prices ( series) Profit share ( series) Interest rates ( series) B. Timing at Business Cycle Troughs >v Economic Nv Process Cyclical\ Timing N. EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOY- MENT (8 series) II. PRODUCTION AND INCOME ( series) III CONSUMPTION, TRADE, ORDERS, AND DELIVERIES ( series) IV. FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT (8 series) V. INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT (9 series) VI. PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS (7 series) VII. MONEY AND CREDIT (6 series) LEADING (L) INDICATORS (A-J rpfiprl \^r / 6 I6^J Marginal employment adjustments ( series) Industrial production ( series) New and unfilled orders and deliveries ( series) Consumption and trade ( series) Formation of business enterprises ( series) Business investment commitments ( series) Residential construction ( series) Inventory investment ( series) Stock prices ( series) Commodity prices ( series) Profits and profit margins (6 series) Cash flowsl ( series) Money flows ( series) Real money supply ( series) Credit flows ( series) Credit difficulties ( series) DOI IOHI V KUUbnLT COINCIDENT(C) INDICATORS ( series) Marginal employment adjustments ( series) Comprehensive employment ( series) Comprehensive output and ( real series) income Industrial production ( series) Capacity utilization ( series) Consumption and trade ( series) Business investment commitments ( series) Profits ( series) Money flow ( series) Velocity money of ( series) LAGGING (Lg) INDICATORS ( series) Marginal employment adjustments ( series) Job vacancies ( series) Comprehensive employment ( series) Comprehensive and duration OT unemployment ( series) Unfilled orders ( series) Business investment commitments ( series) Business investment expenditures (6 series) Inventories on hand and on order ( series) Unit labor costs and labor share ( series) Velocity of money ( series) Bank reserves ( series) Interest rates (8 series) Outstanding debt ( series) TIMING UNCLASSIFIED (U) ( series) Bank reserves ( series)

9 independent measurement error and other "noise" in the included series are smoothed out in the index as a whole. The indexes include only monthly series that are acceptable in terms of relatively prompt availability and reasonable accuracy. The main composite indexes are distinguished by their cyclical timing. Thus, there is an index of leading indicators, series which historically reached their cyclical peaks and troughs earlier than the corresponding business cycle turns. There is an index of roughly coincident indicators, consisting of series which historically reached their turning points at about the same time as the general economy, and an index of lagging indicators, which includes series that typically reached their peaks and troughs later than the corresponding business cycle turns. The leading index contains series with long as well as short leads, but each series leads on the average over time and shows a frequency of leads at the individual turns exceeding that attributable to chance, given the historical distribution of cyclical timing. (An analogous statement applies to the components of the lagging index.) Since 9, leads were generally more frequent and longer at peaks than at troughs of business cycles, while lags were generally more frequent and longer at troughs than at peaks. The adopted system of scoring and classifying the indicators takes into account these well-established differences in timing. Consequently, rough coincidences include short leads (-) and lags ( + ) as well as exact coincidences (). (For monthly series, the range is from - through + at peaks and from - through + at troughs, where minus denotes leads and plus denotes lags in months.) For purposes of constructing a composite index, each component series is standardized: The monthto-month percent changes in a given series are divided by the long-run average (without regard to sign) of those changes. Thus, the more volatile series are prevented from dominating the index. The coincident index is calculated so that its longterm trend (since 9) equals the average of the trends of its four components. This trend, which is similar to that of GNP in constant dollars, can be viewed as a linear approximation to the secular movement (at an average growth rate) in aggregate economic activity. The indexes of leading and lagging indicators have been adjusted so that both their trends and their average month-to-month percent changes (without regard to sign) are approximately equal to those of the coincident index. (For a more detailed description of the method of constructing the composite indexes, see the 977 Handbook of Cyclical Indicators.) In addition to these principal composite indexes, differentiated according to cyclical timing, there are five indexes based on leading indicators which have been grouped by economic process. Taken together, these additional indexes include all component series of the overall leading index, plus a few related series. Also shown in this section is the ratio of the index of roughly coincident indicators to the index of lagging indicators, a series known to have a useful pattern of early cyclical timing. Numbers entered on the charts of the composite indexes show the length, in months, of leads (-) and lags ( + ) at each of the reference turning dates covered. The next set of data consists of series included in the principal composite indexes. These are the components of the leading index, the components of the coincident index, and the 6 components of the lagging index. Following the title of each series, its typical timing is identified by three letter symbols in a small box. The first of these letters refers to the timing of the given indicator at business cycle peaks, the second to its timing at business cycle troughs, and the third to its timing at all turns, i.e., at peaks and troughs combined. "L" denotes a tendency to lead, "C" a tendency to roughly coincide with the business cycle turns (as represented by the NBERdesignated reference dates), and "Lg" a tendency to lag. Since these series have been selected for the consistency of their timing at both peaks and troughs, all components of the leading index are denoted "L,L,L," all components of the coincident index "C,C,C," and all components of the lagging index "Lg,Lg,Lg." It should be remembered that these classifications are based on limited evidence, namely the performance of the indicators during the business cycles of the 9-7 period, which included five peaks and five troughs. While the timing classifications are expected to agree with the patterns prevailing in the near future, they will not necessarily hold invariably in every instance. The timing of the series in the post-97 period can be determined by inspection of the charts, where the recession and the 98 recession are shaded according to the dates of the NBER reference cycle chronology. Section B. Cyclical Indicators by Economic Process This section covers individual time series, including the indicators used in the construction of the composite indexes. The peak and trough timing classifications are shown on the charts in the same manner as described above, but this section includes series with different timing at peaks and at troughs, as well as series where the timing is not sufficiently consistent to be classified as either L,C, or Lg according to the probabilistic measures and scoring criteria adopted. Such series are labeled U, i.e., unclassified as to timing at turning points of the given type. Eight series are unclassified at peaks, one series at troughs, and 9 series at all turns (of the 9, have definite but different timing at peaks and at troughs). No series that is classified as U both at peaks and at troughs is included in the list of cyclical indicators. The classification scheme which groups the indicators of this section by economic process and cyclical timing is summarized in the two tabulations on page. Cross-classification A is based on the observed behavior of the series at five business cycle peaks ( ', ', '7, '6, and '69); crossclassification B, on their behavior at five business cycle troughs ( '9, ', '8, '6, and 7). Each tabulation distinguishes seven major economic processes and four types of cyclical timing. The titles in the cells identify subgroups of the given economic process with the given timing characteristic. The number of series in each such group is given in parentheses following the title. Complete information on how individual indicators are classified by timing at peaks, troughs, and all turns, along with selected measures and scores, is provided in the 977 Handbook of Cyclical Indicators. Section C. Diffusion Indexes and Rates of Change Many series in this report are aggregates compiled from numerous components. How the individual components of an aggregate move over a given timespan is summarized by a diffusion index which indicates the percentage of components that are rising (with half of the unchanged components considered rising). Cyclical changes in these diffusion indexes tend to lead those of the corresponding aggregates. Since diffusion indexes are highly erratic, they are computed from changes measured over 6- or 9-month (or - or -quarter) spans, as well as -month (or -quarter) spans. Longer spans help to highlight the trends underlying the shorter-term fluctuations. Diffusion indexes are shown for the component series included in each of the three composite indexes and for the components of some of the aggregate series shown in section B. Diffusion measures can be derived not only from actual data but also from surveys of anticipations or intentions. Indexes based on responses of business executives about their plans and expectations for several operating variables are presented, along with the corresponding indexes based on actual data, as the last set of diffusion series. This section also records rates of change for the three composite indexes (leading, coincident, and lagging) and for four indicators of aggregate economic activity: GNP in constant dollars (quarterly), industrial production, employee hours in nonagricultural establishments, and. personal income less transfers in constant dollars. Rates of change are shown for - and -month spans or for -quarter spans. Although movements in diffusion indexes and in rates of change for the same aggregates are generally positively correlated, these two measures present information about two related but distinct aspects of economic change. Diffusion indexes measure the prevailing direction or scope of change, while rates of change measure the degree as well as the overall direction. As is the case for diffusion indexes, cyclical movements in the rates of change tend to lead those of the corresponding indexes or aggregates, and thus, they tend to lead at the business cycle turns as well.

10 Part II. OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES This part is divided into six sections which cover a wide range of quarterly and monthly time series measuring various aspects of economic activity. Some of these series are very comprehensive, pertaining to the U.S. economy as a whole, others have to do with particular sectors or markets, and still others relate to U.S. international transactions or to selected foreign countries. The represented variables include incomes, outputs, and expenditures; prices, earnings, and productivity; labor resources; government receipts, expenditures, and defense-related activities; exports and imports; and selected indicators for a few key foreign countries. Section A. National Income and Product The national income and product accounts, compiled by BEA, summarize both receipts and final expenditures for the personal, business, foreign, and government sectors of the economy. Section Al shows the gross national product, final sales, and personal and disposable personal income. The four major components of the gross national product personal consumption expenditures, gross private domestic investment, government purchases of goods and services, and net exports of goods and services are presented in sections A through A. Most of the series in section A are presented in current as well as constant dollars. There are also a few per capita series. The national income and product accounts, briefly defined below, are described more fully in the Survey of Current Business, Part I, 976. Gross national product (GNP) is the market value of final goods and services produced by the labor and property supplied by residents of the United States, before deduction of allowances for the consumption of fixed capital goods. It is the most comprehensive measure of aggregate economic output. Final sales is GNP less change in business inventories. Personal income is the income received by persons (individuals, owners of unincorporated businesses, nonprofit institutions, private trust funds, and private noninsured welfare funds) from all sources. It is the sum of wage and salary disbursements, other labor income, proprietors' income, rental income of persons, dividends, personal interest income, and transfer payments, less personal contributions for social insurance. Disposable personal income is the personal income available for spending or saving. It consists of personal income less personal taxes and nontax payments to government. Personal consumption expenditures (A) is goods and services purchased by individuals, operating expenses of nonprofit institutions, and the value of food, fuel, clothing, rent of dwellings, and financial services received in kind by individuals. Net purchases of used goods are also included. Gross private domestic investment (A) is fixed capital goods purchased by private business and nonprofit institutions and the value of the change in the physical volume of inventories held by private business. The former include all private purchases of dwellings, whether purchased for tenant or owner occupancy. Net purchases of used goods are also included. Government purchases of goods and services (A) is the compensation of government employees and purchases from business and from abroad. It excludes transfer payments, interest paid by government, and subsidies. It includes gross investment by government enterprises but excludes their current outlays. It includes net purchases of used goods and excludes sales and purchases of land and financial assets. Net exports of goods and services (A) is exports less imports of goods and services. Exports are part of the national production; imports are not, but are included in the components of GNP and are therefore deducted. More detail on U.S. international transactions is provided in section E. National income (A6) is the incomes that originate in the production of goods and services attributable to labor and property supplied by residents of the United States. Thus, it measures the factor costs of the goods and services produced. It consists of the compensation of employees, proprietors' income, rental income of persons, corporate profits, and net interest. Saving (A7) is the difference between income and expenditures during an accounting period. Total gross saving includes personal saving, business saving (mainly undistributed corporate profits and capital consumption allowances), and government surplus or deficit. Shares of GNP and national income (A8). The major expenditure components of GNP (consumption, investment, etc.) are expressed as percentages of GNP, and the major income components of national income (compensation of employees, corporate profits, etc.) are expressed as percentages of national income. Section 6. Prices, Wages, and Productivity The important data on price movements include the monthly consumer and producer price indexes and their major components. Based largely on these series are the quarterly price indexes from the national income and product accounts, notably the GNP implicit price deflator (with weights reflecting the changing proportions of different expenditure categories in GNP) and the fixedweighted price index for the gross business product. Data on both levels and percent changes are presented for the period since 969. The group of series on wages and productivity consists of data on average hourly earnings and average hourly compensation (including earnings and other benefits) in current and constant dollars, output per hour of work in the business sector, and rates of change for most of these measures. Section C. Labor Force, Employment, and Unemployment This section contains measures of the civilian labor force and its major components: Total numbers of employed and unemployed persons. The number of unemployed is subdivided into selected categories defined by sex, age, and class of worker. Also included are data on participation rates for a few principal segments of the labor force. Section D. Government Activities Receipts, expenditures, and their balance (surplus or deficit) are shown quarterly on two levels: () Federal Government and () State and local government. Also shown is a selection of series from the discontinued Defense Indicators, These series measure defense activities which influence short-term changes in the national economy. Included are series relating to obligations, contracts, orders, production, shipments, inventories, outlays, and employment. These series are grouped according to the time at which the activities they measure occur in the defense order-production-delivery process. Series measuring activities which usually precede production, such as contract awards and new orders, are classified as "advance measures of defense activity." Series measuring activities which tend to coincide with production, such as employment, and activities which usually follow production, such as shipments, are classified as "intermediate and final measures of defense activity." Section E. U.S. International Transactions This group includes monthly series on exports (excluding military aid) and general imports, plus a few selected components of these aggregates. Also shown are the balances between receipts and expenditures for goods and services, merchandise, and investment income. Section F. International Comparisons This section is designed to facilitate a quick review of basic economic conditions in six of the nations with which we have important trade relationships. The U.S. business cycle shading has been omitted from these charts. Data on industrial production, consumer prices, and stock prices for Canada, the United Kingdom, France, West Germany, Japan, and Italy are compared with the corresponding U.S. series. Also included is an industrial production index for the European countries in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). The industrial production series provide cyclically sensitive output measures for large parts of the economies covered. Changes in consumer price indexes (plotted for the period since 969) provide important measures of the rates of inflation in the major industrialized countries. Stock prices (also shown beginning in 969) tend to be significant as leading indicators.

11 HOW TO READ CHARTS Peak (P) of cycle indicates end of expansion and beginning of recession (shaded area) as designated by NBER. Solid line indicates monthly data. (Data may be actual monthly figures or moving averages.) Broken line indicates actual monthly data for series where a moving average is plotted. Solid line with plotting points indicates quarterly data. Parallel lines indicates a break in continuity (data not available, extreme value, etc.). Solid line indicates monthly data over 6- or 9-month spans. Broken line indicates monthly data over -month spans. Broken line with plotting points indicates quarterly data over -quarter spans. Solid line with plotting points indicates quarterly data over various spans. Diffusion indexes and rates of change are centered within the spans they cover. Solid line indicates percent changes over - or 6-month spans. Broken line indicates percent changes over -month spans. Solid line with plotting points indicates percent changes over -or -quarter spans. HOW TO LOCATE A SERIES Basic Data Diffusion Indexes Rates of Change Trough (T) of cycle indicates end of recession and beginning of expansion as designated by NBER. Arabic number indicates latest month for which data are plotted. ("9" = ) Dotted line indicates anticipated data. Roman number indicates latest quarter for which data are plotted. ("IV" = fourth quarter) Various scales are used to highlight the patterns of the individual series. "Scale A" is an arithmetic scale, "scale L-" is a logarithmic scale with cycle in a given distance, "scale L-" is a logarithmic scale with two cycles in that distance, etc. Arabic number indicates latest month for which data are used in computing the indexes. Roman number indicates latest quarter for which data are used in computing the indexes. Dotted line indicates anticipated quarterly data over various spans. Arabic number indicates latest month used in computing the changes. Broken line with plotting points indicates percent changes over -quarter spans. Roman number indicates latest quarter used in computing the changes. See ALPHABETICAL INDEX-SERIES FINDING GUIDE at the back of the report where series are arranged alphabetically according to subject matter and key words and phrases of the series titles, or-. See TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES at the back of the report where series are listed numerically according to series numbers within each of the report's sections.

12 Table. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators Basic data Percent change _ Series title Timing classification Unit of measure 979 Average 98 th Q 98 st Q 98 dq Aug. 98 to 98 to Aug. 98 th Q to st Q 98 lstq to dq 98 E c I. CYCLICAL INDICATORS A. Composite Indexes 9. Twelve leading indicators 9. Four coincident indicators 9 Six lagging indicators L.L.L C,C,C Lg,Lg,Lg 967=.. do do Leading Indicator Subgroups: 9 Marginal employment adjustments 9. Capital investment commitments 9. Inventory investment and purchasing 96. Profitability 97. Money and financial flows L.L.L L.L.L L,L,L : L.L.L L.L.L do do.... do.... do.... do B. Cyclical Indicators by Economic Process B. Employment and Unemployment Marginal Employment Adjustments: *. Average workweek, prod, workers, mfg. Avg. weekly overtime, prod, workers, mfg.... Accession rate, per employees, mfg..... Avg. weekly initial claims (inverted ) * Layoff rate, per employ., mfg. (inv. )... Quit rate, per employees, mfg. L.L.L L.C.L L.L.L L.C.L L.L.L L,Lg,U Hours do.... Percent Thousands.. Percent do Job Vacancies: 6. Ratio, help-wanted advertising to persons unemployed 6 Help-wanted advertising Comprehensive Employment:. Employee hours in nonagri. establishments.... Persons engaged in nonagri. activities *. Employees on nonagri. payrolls. Employees in mfg., mining, construction Ratio, civilian employment to total population of working age L,Lg,U L,Lg,U U.C.C U.C.C C.C.C L.C.U U,Lg,U Ratio 967=... A.r., bil. hrs.. Thousands.. do.... do.... Percent ,6 89,8 6, ,96 9,6, ,9 9,8, ,69 9,, ,7 9,6, ,7 9,6, ,7 9,966, ,7 9,7, Comprehensive Unemployment: 7 Total unemployed (inverted ) Unemployment rate, total ^ inverted ). Avg. weekly insured unemploy-rate (inv. ).. *9. Avg. duration of unemployment (inverted )... Unemploy. rate, weeks and over (inv. ).. L,Lg,U L,Lg,U L,Lg,U Lg,Lg,Lg Lg,Lg,Lg Thousands.. Percent do.... Weeks Percent, , , , , , , , B. Production and Income Comprehensive Output and Income:. GNPin 97 dollars Personal income in 97 dollars *. Pers. income less transfer pay., 97 dollars.. Wages and salaries in mining, mfg., and construction, 97 dollars c.c.c C.C.C C.C.C c.c.c A.r., bil. dol. do do.... do Industrial Production: *7. Industrial production, total 7 Industrial production, durable mfrs 7. Industrial production, nondurable mfrs 9. Value of goods output, 97 dollars C.C.C C.C.C C,L,L C.C.C 967=... do.... do.... A.r., bil. dol Capacity Utilization: 8. Capacity utilization rate, mfg., FRB 8 Capacity utilization rate, mfg., BEA 8 Capacity utilization rate, materials, FRB... L.C.U L.C.U Percent do.... do o B Consumption, Trade, Orders, and Deliveries Orders and Deliveries: 6 New orders durable goods 7. New orders, durable goods, 97 dollars *8. New orders, cons, goods and mtls., 97 dol... Chg. in unfilled orders, durable goods 96. Mfrs.' unfilled orders, durable goods * Vendor performance ( ) L.L.L L.L.L L.L.L L.L.L L,Lg,U L.L.L Bil dol do.... do.... do.... Bil. dol., EOP Percent _ Consumption and Trade: 6. Manufacturing and trade sales *7. Manufacturing and trade sales, 97 dollars.. 7. Industrial production, consumer goods. Sales of retail stores Sales of retail stores 97 dollars Personal consumption expend., autos 8 Index of consumer sentiment ( ) C.C.C C.C.C C.L.C C.L.U U.L.U L.C.C L.L.L Bil. dol do =... Mil. dol do.... A.r., bil.dol. I Q 966= ,, ,7, ,86, ,67, ,7, ,8, ,, ,69, B. Fixed Capital Investment Formation of Business Enterprises: *. Net business formation New business incorporations L.L.L L.L.L 967=... Number 7,7.,7. 7, ,

13 Table. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators Continued Series title Timing classification Unit of measure th Q 98 st Q 98 Basic data dq Aug. 98 to 98 Percent change to Aug. 98 th Q st Q 98 st Q to d Q 98 I. CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Con. B. Fixed Capital Investment Con. Business Investment Commitments:. Contracts and orders, plant and equipment.. *. Contr. and orders, plant and equip., 97 dol. New orders, cap. goods indus., nondefense.. 7. New orders, capital goods industries, nondefense, 97 dollars 9. Construction contracts, commercial and industrial buildings, floor space-. New capital appropriations, mfg 97. Backlog of capital appropriations, mfg.... Business Investment Expenditures: 6. Business expend., new plant and equipment. 69. Machinery and equipment sales and business construction expenditures 76. Industrial production, business equip 86. Nonresid. fixed investment, total, 97 dol.. L,L,L L,L,L L,L,L L,L,L L,C,U U,Lg,U C,Lg,Lg C,Lg,Lg C,Lg,Lg C,Lg,U C,Lg,C Bil. dol do.... do.... do.... Mil. sq.ft... Bil. dol Bit. dol., EOP A.r., bil. dol. do A.r., bil. dol U U Residential Construction Commitments and Investment: 8. New private housing units started, total *9. New building permits, private housing 89. Fixed investment, residential, 97 dol L,L,L L,L,L L,L,L A.r., thous.. 967=... A.r., bil. dol.,7 6., , 6.8.6,9 9.., ,9 77.8, B. Inventories and Inventory Investment Inventory Investment: Chg. in business inventories, 97 dol. *6. Change in inventories on hand and on order, 97 dollars (smoothed 6 ) Chg. in book value, mfg. and trade invent. 8. Chg. in mtl. stocks on hand and on order. U,L L,L,L L,L,L L,L,L do. do. do. Bil. dol : Inventories on Hand and on Order: 7. Mfg. and trade inventories, total *7. Mfg. and trade invent., total, 97 dol Mfrs.' inventories of finished goods 77. Ratio, inventories to sales, mfg. and trade, constant dollars 78. Materials and supplies, stocks on hand and on order B6. Prices, Costs, and Profits Lg.Lg.Lg Lg,Lg,Lg Lg,Lg,Lg Lg,Lg,Lg Ratio Bil. dol., EOP do.... do.... L,Lg,Lg Bil. dol., EOP U.. Sensitive Commodity Prices: *9. Chg. in sensitive prices (smoothed 6 ) Spot market prices, raw industrials (u) Stock Prices: *9. Stock prices, common stocks< ) L,L,L U,L,L L,L,L Percent = Profits and Profit Margins: 6. Corporate profits after taxes 8. Corp. profits after taxes, 97 dollars 79. Corp. profits after taxes with IVA and CCAdj. 8 do in 97 dol... Profits (after taxes) per dol. of sales, mfg.. 6. Ratio, price to unit labor cost nonfarm bus L,L,L L,L,L L,C,L L,C,L L,L,L L.L.L Ax, bil. dol. do.... do..., do... Cents 977= Cash Flows:. Net cash flow, corporate. Net cash flow, corporate, 97 dollars L,L,L L,L,L A.r., bil. dol. do Unit Labor Costs and Labor Share: 6 Unit labor cost, private business sector 68. Labor cost (cur. dol.) per unit of gross domestic product (97), nonfin. corp... *6. Labor cost per unit of output, mfg 6. Compensation of employees as percent of national income Lg,Lg,Lg Lg,Lg,Lg Lg,Lg,Lg Lg,Lg,Lg 977=.. Dollars 967=... Percent B7. Money and Credit Money: 8. Change in money supply (M-B). Change in money supply (M) *. Chg. in total liquid assets (smoothed 6 ).... Money supply (M-B), 97 dollars *6. Money supply (M), 97 dollars L,L,L L,C,U L.L.L L,L,L L.L.L Percent. do. do. Bil. dol.. do Velocity of Money: 7. Ratio, GNP to money supply (M-B) 8. Ratio, pers. income to money supply (M) CC.C C,Lg,C Ratio do Credit Flows: Change in mortgage debt. Change in business loans Change in consumer installment credit. Total private borrowing L.L.L L,L,L L.L.L L,L,L A.r., bil. dol. do... do... do

14 Table. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators Continued Series title Timing classification Unit of Average th Q 98 lstq 98 Basic data dq Aug. 98 to 98 Percent change Aug. 98 th Q to lstq 98 lstq to dq 98 I. CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Con. B7. Money and Credit-Con. Credit Difficulties:. Liabilities of business failures (inv. ) 9. Delinquency rate, instal. loans (inv. ) s... L.L.L L,L,L Mil. dol Percent, EOP Bank Reserves: 9 Free reserves (inverted ) 9. Borrowing from the Federal Reserve Interest Rates: 9. Federal funds rate. Treasury bill rate. Treasury bond yields 6. Corporate bond yields 7. Municipal bond yields 8. Mortgage yields, residential 67. Bank rates on short-term bus. loans *9. Average prime rate charged by banks... L.U.U L,Lg,U L.Lg.Lg CLg.Lg C,Lg,Lg Lg,Lg,Lg U,Lg,Lg Lg,Lg,Lg Lg,Lg,Lg Lg,Lg,Lg do.... Percent.. do. do. do. do. do. do. do.... -,, ,, ,69, , ,, ,8, ,69, ,7, Outstanding Debt: 66. Consumer installment credit *7. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding, weekly reporting large comm. banks *9. Ratio, consumer install, credit to pers. income Lg,Lg,Lg Lg,Lg,Lg Lg,Lg,Lg Bil. dol., EOP Bil. dol Percent II. OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES B. Prices, Wages, and Productivity B. Price Movements Implicit price deflator, GNP Consumer prices (CPI), all items c. Change in CPI, all items, S/A CPI, food 97= =... Percent 967= Producer prices (PPI}, all commodities PPI, crude materials PPI, intermediate materials PPI, capital equipment. PPI, finished consumer goods do.... do.... do.... do... do b B. Wages and Productivity. Average hourly earnings, production workers, private nonfarm economy. Real average hourly earnings, production workers, private nonfarm economy. Average hourly compensation, nonfarm bus.. 6. Real avg. hourly comp., nonfarm business.. 7. Output per hour, private business sector =... do.... do.... do.... do C. Labor Force, Employment, and Unemployment. Total civilian labor force. Total civilian employment 7. Number of persons unemployed. Unemployed males, years and over. Unemployed females, years and over Unemployed persons, 6-9 years of age... Millions... do... Thousands. do... do... do ,96,,, ,,6,7, ,897,96,7, ,788,,78, ,9,,76, ,78,,7, ,,7,797, ,67,,7, Labor Force Participation Rates:. Males, years and over. Females, years and over Both sexes, 6-9 years of age Percent.... do... do b D. Government Activities D. Receipts and Expenditures. Federal Government receipts. Federal Government expenditures. Federal Government surplus or deficit.... State and local government receipts.... State and local government expenditures... State and local govt. surplus or deficit '... A.r.,bil.dol. do... do... do... do... do , b D. Defense Indicators 7. Defense Department obligations. Military prime contract awards. New orders, defense products 6. National defense purchases Mil. dol... do... do... A.r.,bil.dol.,,6,7.,9 6,96,66 7,9 7,,.6,7 7,6,., 7,7,77.,6 6,69,96 6,86,, E. U.S. International Transactions E. Merchandise Trade 6. Exports, total except military aid 6. Exports of agricultural products 66. Exports of nonelectrical machinery 6. General imports, total 6. Imports of petroleum and products 66. Imports of automobiles and parts Mil. dol. do do. do do do,7,886,9 7,6,676,8 8,9,,788,7 6,9, 9,6,6,968, 6,6,,8,8,88, 7,, 9,,,86,88 6,,99 9,87,6,88,97 6,,7 9,6,89,67 9,87,,

15 Table. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators Continued Basic data Percent change Series title Unit of measure Average st Q 98 dq 98 dq th Q st Q 98 dq 98 dq to th Q 98 th Q st Q 98 lstq to dq 98 II. OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES-Con. E. Goods and Services Movements Except Transfers Under Military Grants 68. Merchandise exports 6. Merchandise imports 6. Merchandise trade balance 6. Income on U.S. investments abroad 6. Income on foreign investment in the U.S Exports of goods and services 669. Imports of goods and services 667. Balance on goods and services..do...do...do...do...do.,,9-8,,86,66,6 7,8 -, 6,8,9-6,86 6,67 8, 7, 7,,7,99 6,7-6, 8,98,79 86,68 8,7,696,898 6,,6,6,69 8,76 8,98-7, ,, -,9 8,8,697 86,6 8,77 6,78 7,9 6,79 -,7 9,76,7 88,66 8,9, ,77 67,9-6,9,,8 9,8 9,, , , , ,6 -, A. National Income and Product A. GNPand Personal Income. 6NP in 97 dollars. GNP in current dollars Final sales, 97 dollars. Disposable personal income, current dollars.... Disposable personal income, 97 dollars 7. Per capita GNP in 97 dollars 7. Per capita disposable pers. income, 97 dol... A.r., bil. dol. do....do...do...do. A.r., dollars. do ,, ,88, ,, ,6, ,7, ,6, ,99, ,6, ,8, A. Personal Consumption Expenditures Total, 97 dollars Durable goods, 97 dollars 8. Nondurable goods, 97 dollars 9. Services, 97 dollars Total, current dollars Durable goods, current dollars 6. Nondurable goods, current dollars 7. Services, current dollars A.r., bil.dol. do.. do.. do.. do.. do.. do.. do A Gross Private Domestic Investment. Total, 97 dollars Total fixed investment, 97 dollars Change in business inventories, 97 dol.. Total, current dollars. Total fixed investment, current dollars.... Chg. in bus. inventories, current dol...do...do...do...do...do...do A. Government Purchases of Goods and Services 6. Total, 97 dollars 6 Federal Government, 97 dollars 67. State and local governments, 97 dollars 6. Total, current dollars 6. Federal Government, current dollars 66. State and local governments, current dollars.....do...do...do...do...do...do , 9.9, 8, bl A. Foreign Trade 6. Exports of goods and services, 97 dollars.. 7. Imports of goods and services, 97 dollars... Net exports of goods and serv., 97 dol..... Exports of goods and services, current dol.... Imports of goods and services, current.dol..... Net exports of goods and serv., current dol....do...do...do...do...do...do A6. National Income and Its Components. National income 8. Compensation of employees 8. Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAdj 86. Corporate profits with IVA and CCAdj.. 8. Rental income of persons with CCAdj Net interest A7. Saving..do...do...do...do...do...do Gross saving (private and govt.). 9. Business saving 9. Personal saving 98. Government surplus or deficit. 9 Personal saving rate..do.,..do...do. do. ercent NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except tor those indicated by. which appear to contain no seasonal movement. Series indicated by an asterisk (*) are included in the major composite indexes. Dollar values are in current dollars unless otherwise specified. For complete series titles (including composition of the composite indexes) and sources, see 'Titles and Sources of Series" at the back of BCD. = not available, a = anticipated. EOP = end of period. A.r. = annual rate. S/A = seasonally adjusted (used for special emphasis). IVA = inventory valuation adjustment. CCA = capital consumption adjustment. NIA = national income accounts. For a few series, data shown here have been rounded to fewer digits than those shown elsewhere in BCD. Annual figures published by the source agencies are used if available. Differences rather than percent changes are shown for this series. The three-part timing code indicates the timing classification of the series at peaks, at troughs, and at all turns: L = leading; C = roughly coincident; Lg = lagging; U = unclassified. Inverted series. Since this series tends to move counter to movements in general business activity, signs of the changes are reversed. End-of-period series. The annual figures (and quarterly figures for monthly series) are the last figures for the period. 6 This series is a weighted -term moving average (with weights,,,) placed at the terminal month of the span.

16 CYCLICAL INDICATORS A I COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS Chart Al. Composite Indexes Index: 967= 9. Index of twelve leading indicators (series,, 8,, 9,, 9,, 6, 9,, 6) Index of four roughly coincident indicators (series, 7,, 7) 9 Index of six lagging indicators (series 6,7,7, 9,9,9) NOTE: Numbers entered on the chart indicate length of leads (-) and lags ( + ) in months from reference turning dates. Digitized for Current FRASER data for these series are shown on page 6. in SEPTEMBER 98 ItCII

17 CYCLICAL INDICATORS COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS Continued Chart Al. Composite Indexes Continued (Nov.) (Oct.) P T ')() (Aug )(Apr.) (Apr.)(Feb.) P T PI P T (Dec )(Nov.) (Nov.) (Mar.) P T P T 9 ifginai eminent adjustments (series,,, ) Index: 967= (Jan.)() P T Capital investment commitments (series,, 9) ~ I 9. lnvento nvestmen Kl purchasing (series 8,, 6, 9) Profitability (series 9, 6, 8) M 97. Money and financial flows (series, 6, ) ^ ^ /L Ratio, coincident index to lagging index.ill s*/ Digitized NOTE: for Numbers FRASER entered on the chart indicate length of leads (-) and lags (+) in months from reference turning dates. Current data for these series are shown on page 6. ;^J \ /.- $t- AS\ - -I m - no- (- %»

18 ' *i '., > \ *' * ; * COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS Continued Chart A. Leading Index Components. Average workweek, production workers, manufacturing (tours) J I M Layoff rate, manufacturing (per employees inverted scale) 8. New orders for consumer goods and materials, 97 dollars (bil. dpi.) Vendor performance, percent of companies receiving slower deliveries (percent). Net business formation (index: 967=). Contracts and orders for plant and equipment, 9P? Digitized for Current FRASER data for these series are shown on pages 6, 6, 6, and 66. Federal Reserve i n Bank of St. Louis QO

19 CYCLICAL INDICATORS A COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS Continued Chart A. Leading Index Components Continued 9. New building permits, private housing units (index: 967=) 6. Net change in inventories on hand and on order, 97 dollars, smoothed (ann. rate, 9. Change in sensitive crude materials prices, smoothed (percent) L,L,L. Change in total liquid assets, smoothed (percent) h L L 9. Stock prices, common stocks (index: 9=) ILL 6. Money supply^-m-in 97 dollars ( Lll This series is a weighted -term moving average (with weights,,,) placed on the terminal month of the span. Digitized Current for FRASER data for these series are shown on pages 67, 68, 69, and 7. Federal Kill Reserve Bank CCDTCMDCD of St. Louis QQ

20 Current data for these series are shown on pages 6, 6, and 6. CYCLICAL INDICATORS A I COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS Continued Chart A Coincident Index Components P T ()() (Aui: ;(Anr ) (Apr,'F t I PI P : PI P T (Jan }(!uiy) P T. Employees on nonagricultural payrolls (millions). Personal income less transfer payments, / 97 dollars (ann. rate, bil. dol) S^ 7. Industrial production, total (index: 967=) 7. Manufacturing and trade sales, 97 dollars ( 9! c > G BO 98

21 CYCLICAL INDICATORS A I COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS Continued Chart A. Lagging Index Components 9. Average duration of unemployment (weeks inverted scale) p 7. Manufacturing and trade inventories, 97 dollars ( 6. Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing (index: 967=) 9. Average prime rate charged by banks (percent) XtX Zl Jll. 7. Commercial mid industrial loans outstanding, weekly reporting large commercial banks UteX 9. Ratio, consumer installment credit to personal income (percent) i'flj; r P ; *' b'j f fb.>b "}/ r?* ' J ^ Current data for these series are shown on pages 6, 68, 7, and 7 Federal Reserve Bank SEPTEMBER of St. Louis

22 CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS Chart Bl. Employment and Unemployment [Marginal Employment Adjustments. Average weekly overtime hours, production workers, manufacturing (hours) J V. Average weekly initial claims, State unemployment insurance (thousands inverted scale). Accession rate, manufacturing (per employees) /W*A z ^ ~*\-A_ - A - 6 Layoff rate, manufacturing (per employees inverted scale) L,L,U 7 -. Quit rate, manufacturing (per employees) Current data for these series are shown on page 6. %.f 6^ ^ 6/ SEPTEMBER 98

23 B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS Continued Chart Bl. Employment and Unemployment Continued [Job Vacancies 6. Ratio, help-wanted advertising to number of persons unemployed (ratio) 6. Help-wanted advertising (index 967=) AzH; Comprehensive Emptoyment[. Employee-hours in nonagncultural establishments (am. rate, by. hours) ieo- ]. Persons ei^aged in nonagricultural acthiies (millions) f f BO L Employees on nonagricurural payrolls (millions) * - -yev jf. Employees In goods-producing industries mining, CUftMiUCUUll \mlllkins/ - -»»-*:f. b s », *th Current data for these series are shown on pages 6 and 6. IICII SEPTEMBER 98 7

24 B CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS Continued Chart Bl. Employment and Unemployment Continued Comprehensive Employment Con7 9. Ratio, civilian employment to total population of working age (percent) [Comprehensive Unemployment 7. Number unemployed, total (millions inverted scale) Unemployment rate, total (percent-inverted scale). Average weekly insured unemployment rate (percent inverted scale) 9. Average duration of unemployment (weeks inverted scale). Unemployment rate, persons unemployed weeks and over (percent-inverted scale) Current data for these series are shown on page 6. 8 SEPTEMBER 98 KCII

25 CYCLICAL INDICATORS CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS Continued Chart B. Production and Income 'u :iapr. P iapt.;!ji:h ideuinov) P T (Jan.)() F Comprehensive Oaijut and Income]. GNP in 97 dohajl (arm. rate, bil.. Personal income in 97 dollars (ann. rate, h M -, j. Personal income less transfer payments in 97 (ann. rate, Wages and salaries in mining, manufacturing, and construction in 97 dollars (arm. rate, ' - IP- 6( ' :i Current data for these series are shown on page } 9

26 CYCLICAL INDICATORS CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS Continued Chart B. Production and Income Continued Industrial Production 7. Industrial production, total (index: 967=) 7. Industrial production, nondurable manufactures (index: 967=) fgjj \. 7 Industrial production, durable manufactures 9. Value of goods output in 97 dollars, Q [Capacity Utilization 8 Rate of capacity utilization, manufacturing (BEA), Q (percent) 8. Rate of capacity utilization, manufacturing (FRB), Q (percent) h g y l bo Current data for these series are shown on pages 6 and 6. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

27 CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS Continued Chart B Consumption, Trade, Orders, and Deliveries [Orders and Deliveries] 7. New orders, durable goods industries, 97 dollars ( _ j 6. New orders, durable goods industries, current dollars (bil. dot.) ul X ' & New orders for consumer goods and materials in 97 dollars (. Change in unfilled orders, durable goods industries (bil. dol.; MCD moving avg.--term) Manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries ( Vendor performance, percent of companies receiving slower deliveries (percent) PI Current data for these series are shown on page 6. SEPTEMBER 98

28 CYCLICAL INDICATORS B CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS Continued Chart B Consumption, Trade, Orders, and Deliveries Continued (Consumption and trade] S_ 6. Manufacturing and trade sales in current dollars / ( f^fj 7 7. Manufacturing and trade sales in 97 dollars ( 7. Industrial production, consumer goods (index: 967=). Sales of retail stores in current dollars (bh. d o l.)^ ctu. Sales of retail stores in 97 dollars ( OXul X. Personal consumption expenditures, automobiles, Q (ann. rate, bil dol.) 8. Index of consumer sentiment (st Q 966=) Current data for these series are shown on page 6. SEPTEMBER 98 BCII

29 B CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS Continued Chart B. Fixed Capital Investment [Formation of Business Enterprises] Z Net business formation (index: 967=) l u T l LLL i < i New business incorporations (thousands) LLL [Business Investment Commitments!. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment in 97 dollars (bif. dol.) X f. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment in current dollars ( 7. Manufacturers' new orders, capital goods industries, nondefense, in 97 dolte ( X LLL. Manufacturers' new orders, capital goods industries, nondefense, in current dollars (oil. dol) ft 7 9. Construction contracts! commercial and industrial buildings (mil. ^. It of te This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F.W. Dodge Division. Current data for these series are shown on pages 6 and 66.

30 CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS Continued Chart B. Fixed Capital Investment Continued fbustness Investment Commitments Con.. New capital appropriations, manufacturing, Q (bil. dot.) flu&uj 97. Backlog of capital appropriations, manufacturing, Q 6. Business expenditures for new plant and equipment, Q (ann. rate, by. dol) [Business Investment Expenditures! Machinery and equipment sales and business construction expenditures (ann. rate, bil. doi.) 76. Industrial production, business equipment (index: 967=) Current data for these series are shown on pages 66 and 67.

31 CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS Continued Chart B. Fixed Capital Investment Continued [Business Investment Expenditures Con. Presidential fixed investment in 97 dollars, Q (ann. rate, 88. Producers' durable equipment, Q Residential Construction Commitments and Investment! 8. New private housing units started, total (ann. rate, millions) xn 9. New building permits, private housing units (index: 967=) 89. Residential fixed investment total, in 97 dollars, Q (ann. rate, ~~ no Current data for these series are shown on page 67. Federal Reserve Bank SFPTFMRFR of St. Louis 98

32 CYCLICAL INDICATORS CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS Continued Chart B. Inventories and Inventory Investment [Inventory Investment! Change in business inventories, 97 dollars, (ann. rate, bil, MV run 6. Net change in inventories on hand and nn nrrfcr, Q7? (ann. rate, bil. dol.; moving avg. -term ) [XTT] * (ann. rate, bii. dol.; MCD moving avg.-6-term) 8. Change in stocks of materials and supplies on handjnd_ manufacturing (bil. dot.; MCD moving avg. -term) iv.:, ft 6t < >/ ^ "»- t 7 7 b This series is a weighted -term moving average (with weights,,,) placed on the terminal month of the span. Current data for these series are shown on page itrn

33 CYCLICAL INDICATORS B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS Continued Chart B. Inventories and Inventory Investment Continued (Aug.)(Apr ) (Apt ) (Feb ) P I PI 'Jan )fjjiy; P T [inventories on Hand and on Order] 7. Manufacturing and trade inventories, 97 dollars ( 7. Book value, manufacturing and trade inventories, current dollars ( 6. Book value of manufacturers' inventories of finished goods ( y 77. Ratio, deflated inventories to sales, manufacturing and trade nf m J 78. Stocks of materials and supplies on hand and on order, y manufacturing ( ~~~ - - 7_ '! I 96 / 'js 6 6 6^ h < Current data for these series are shown on page HO j *>,«SEPTEMBER 98 7

34 CYCLICAL INDICATORS CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS Continued Chart B6. Prices, Costs, and Profits [Sensitive Commodity Prices! 9. Change in sensitive crude materials prices (percent; moving avg. -term ),j i l Spot market prices, raw industrials (index: 967=) [Profits and Profit Margins] 6. Corporate profits after taxes, current (ann. rate, 8. Corporate proms after taxes, 97 dollars, Q (ann. rate, 79. Corporate profits after taxes with IVA and CCAdj, current dollars, Q (ann. rate, [, r, i L,U,L This series is a weighted -term moving average (with weights,,,) placed on the terminal month of the span. Current data for these series are shown on page SEPTEMBER 98 ItCII

35 CYCLICAL INDICATORS CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS Continued Chart B6. Prices, Costs, and Profits Continued (Aug.) (Apr.) P T (Apr.) (Feb.) P T (Dec.) (Nov ) (Nov.) (Mar.) P T P T (Jan,) () P T Profits and Profit Margins Con. ]. Ratio, corporate profits (after taxes) to total corporate domestic income. (percent) iffl capital consumption adjustments to total corporate domestic income, Q (patent). Proffe (after taxes) per dollar of sales, all manufacturing corporations, Q (cents) 6. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, nonfarm business sector, Q (index: 977=) Jj. I Cash Flows!. Net cash flow, comorate in 97 dollars. (ann. rate, \. Net cash flow, corporate, in current dollars, Q (ann. rate, H. dol.) Current data for these series are shown on pages 69 and 7. lt l» SEPTEMBER 98 9

36 SEPTEMBER 98 lt l» CYCLICAL INDICATORS B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS Continued Chart B6. Prices, Costs, and Profits Continued (Ayg ifap- ) PI (ALH f 'Dec ) (f-jov.i P T (Jan.}i) P T Unit Labor Costs and Labor Share I - / / n,_-/ Unit labor cost, private business sector, Q (index: 977=) 7_ 68. blwr cost (current dollars) per unit of gross domestic product (97 dollars), nonfinancial corporations, Q (dollars) 6. Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing (index: 967=) 6. Compensation of employees as a percent of national income, Q (percent) Current data for these series are shown on page 7.

37 CYCLICAL INDICATORS j$ I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS Continued Chart B7. Money and Credit 8. Change in money supply Ml-B (percent; MCD moving avg. 6-term). Change in money supply M (percent; MCD moving avg.-6-term) L,C,U. Change in total liquid assets (percent; moving avg.--term ). Money supply-ml-b-in 97 dollars ( 6. Money supply-m-in 97 dollars ( This series is a weighted -term moving average (with weights,,,) placed on the terminal month of the span. Current data for these series are shown on page 7. ItCII SEPTEMBER 98

38 CYCLICAL INDICATORS B CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS Continued Chart B7. Money and Credit Continued (Aurj'Apr ; P I (Jan.)() P T [Credit Flows! Cfrange in mortgge debt (nn. rate, XTI. Change in bank loans to businesses (ann. rate, bil. dol.;;; Change in consumer installment credit (ann. rate, Em f. -. Total private borrowing, Q (ann. rate, EH AA / I9 l >6 r>? ?C Current data for these series are shown on pages 7 and SEPTEMBER 98 ItCII

39 CYCLICAL INDICATORS B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS Continued Chart B7. Money and Credit Continued [Credit Difficulties]. Current liabilities of business failures (mil. dol.- inverted scale; MCD moving avg 6-term) j 9. Delinquency rate, days and over, consumer installment loans (percent inverted scale) ll t L,Ll i, ibank Reserves] 9 Free reserves (bil. dol. inverted scale) 9. Member bank borrowing from the Federal Reserve ( Current data for these series are shown on page 7. Federal BReserve C D SEPTEMBER Bank of St. Louis 98

40 CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS Continued Chart B7. Money and Credit Continued Interest Rates 9. Federal funds rale (percent). Treasury bill rate (percent) [Fj7 6. Corporate bond yields (percent). Treasury bond yields (percent) 8. Secondary market yields on FHA i \igtexg 7. Municipal bond yields (percent) lu,lg,lg Current data for these series are shown on pages 7 and 7 SEPTEMBER 98 BCD

41 CYCLICAL INDICATORS B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS Continued Chart B7. Money and Credit Continued (Janjuuiy) [Interest Rates-Con. 67. Bank rates on short-term business bans (percent) 9. Average prime rate charged by banks (percent) [Outstanding Debt) 66. Consumer installment credit ( 7. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding, weekly reporting large commercial banks ( 9. Ratio, consumer installment credit to personal income (percent) Current data for these series are shown on page 7 BCD SEPTEMBER 98

42 CYCLICAL INDICATORS C I DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE Chart Cl. Diffusion Indexes (Aug.) (Apr.) P T (Dec.' (Noi/.) P T (Jan.)() P T 9. Twelve leading indicator components (6-mo. span -, -mo. span ) Percent rising - 9. Four roughly coincident indicator components (6-mo. span, -mo. span ) Mf \\\\ll\i\ sllui 9. Six lagging indicator components (6-mo. span -, -mo. s p a n ) 96. Average workweek, production workers, manufacturing- industries (9-mo. s p a n, -mo. span ) 96. Initial claims, State unemployment insurance areas (percent declining; 9-mo. s p a n, -mo. span ) 96 Employees on private nonagricultural payrolls 7 industries (6-mo. s p a n, -mo. span- ) < { w» 7 f.9 f. ;/ -«Current data for these series are shown on page 7. 6 SEPTEMBER 98 BCII

43 CYCLICAL INDICATORS DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE Continued Chart Cl. Diffusion Indexes Continued (AughApr.i (Apr.) (Feb.) P r P T (Dec.) (Nov.) (Nov.) (Mar.) P T P T (Jan.)() P T 96. New orders, durable goods industries industries (9-mo. span-, -mo. s p a n ) Percent rising -i 96. Newly approved capital appropriations, deflated 7 industries (-Q moving avg. -»*, -Q span - ) (6-mo. span -, -mo. span ) 967. Spot market prices, raw industrials industrial materials (9-mo. span, -mo. span ) 968. Stock prices, common stocks -8 industries (9-mo. span, -mo. span ) 96. Net profits, manufacturing about 7 companies (-Q span) A \ / V \/~ ^ % \ A / A This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. Digitized Current for FRASER data for these series are shown on page 7. Federal III Reserve Bank SEPTEMBER of St. Louis 98

44 CYCLICAL INDICATORS C I DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE-.Continued Chart Cl. Diffusion Indexes Continued (Dec ; fnov \ T -Dec v'n:\ : Percent rising Actual < Anticipated* 97. Business expenditures for new plant and equipment-8 industries (} span) (a) Actual expenditures Percent rising Actual Anticipated* 97. Number of employees, manufacturing and trade (-Q span) i? (b) Later anticipations (a) Actual expenditures * / " _ 97. Level of inventories, manufacturing and trade (-Q span) (c) Early anticipations 97. New orders, manufacturing (-Q span) 976. Selling prices, manufacturing (-Q span) - A 97. Net profits, manufacturing and trade (} span) 977. Selling prices, wholesale trade (} span) 97 Net sales, manufacturing and trade (-Q span) 978. Selling prices, retail trade (-Q span) \ m 7 7! 7,/ : i., V-;; 7 i 7 - -; v.,,.... \ /.; ;..? : v* : ^^ / / ;.;>.- «,<....,,... This is a copyrighted series used by permission; IT may not De reproduced without written permission from Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. Dun & Bradstreet diffusion indexes are based on surveys of about, business executives. Current data for these series are shown on page 76. CCDTCIUinCR QR

45 CYCLICAL INDICATOR C I DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE Continued Chart C Rates of Change Percent changes at annual rate 9c. Composite index of twelve leading indicators -mo. span -mo. span 9c. Composite index of four roughly coincident indicators 9c. Composite index of six lagging indicators (series 6, 7 7, 9, 9, 9) ^ * c. GNP in constant (97) dollars (-Q span) 7c. Index of industrial production c. Employee-hours in nonagricuttural establishments r If I c Personal income less transfer payments in 97 dollars NOTE: Data for these percent changes are shown occasionally in appendix C. The "Alphabetical Index Series Finding Guide" indicates the latest issue in which the data for each series were published. SEPTEMBER 98

46 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES TIOL INCOME AND PRODUCT Chart Al. GNP and Personal Income (Augj(Apr.) (Apr.) (Feb.) P T PI (Dec.) (imov ) P T (Nov.) P. GNP in current dollars, Q (arm. rate, (Mar.) T (Jan.) () P T J Personal income in current dollars (am. rate, bil. dol) v. Disposable personal income in current dollars, Q(ann. rate, dollars, Q (ann. rate, income in Per capita GNP in 97 dollars (ann. rate, thous. dol.) 7. Per capita disi 97 dollars, Q (arm. rate, thous. dol.) 96 r>? >>< VI v\: f: '.. r Current data for these series are shown on pages 6 and 8. SEPTEMBER 98 BCII

47 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES TIOL INCOME AND PRODUCT Continued Chart A. Personal Consumption Expenditures (Aug.) (Apr.) P T (Apr.) (Feb.) P T (Dec.) (Nov.) P T (Nov.) P (Mar.) T (Jan.) () P T Annual rate, billion dollars (current) Persorwl consumption expenditures i'-? : t SO 98 Current data for these series are shown on pages 8 and 8. Federal Reserve Bank SEPTEMBER of St. Louis 98

48 OTHER WIPORlAiV *'.*.\\>v.-,/ tft..'">o>u.. A I TIOL INCOME AND PRODUCT Continued Chart A Gross Private Domestic Investment (Jan. ;> i Gross private domestic investment. Change in business inventories, Q Annual rate, billion dollars (97) Change in business inventories, Q Current data for these series are shown on page 8. CCDTCMRFR Qftl

49 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES TIOL INCOME AND PRODUCT Continued Chart A. Government Purchases of Goods and Services (Aug.)(Apr.) (Apr.) (Feb.) P T P T (Dec.) (Nov.) P I (Nov.) P (Mar.) T (Jan.)() P T Annual rale, billion dollars (current) 66- Government purchases of goods and services Total, Q State and local governments, Q 8-6. Federal Government, Q Annual rate, billion dollars (97) 6. Total, Q i,'! I 67. State and local governments, Q Hi?- 6 Federal Government, Q."'j'im 7' t>8! 6 fi: s..,- ( Current data for these series are shown on page 8. Federal Reserve \AW Bank SEPTEMBER of St. Louis 98 KCII

50 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES I A I TIOL INCOME AND PRODUCT Continued Chart A. Foreign Trade Aut;.'(Apr ) (Apr >. Feb.) (Dec.) (Nov.) (Jan.)() P T Annual rate, billion dollars (current). Exports of goods and services, Q Imports of goods and services, Q. Net exports of goods and services, Q 6. Exports of goods and services, Q--> Annual rate, billion dollars (97) y i / n j 7. Imports of goods and services, Q. Net exports of goocte and services, Q /I A Current data for these series are shown on page 8. SFPTFMRER 98 ItCII

51 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES A I TIOL INCOME AND PRODUCT Continued Chart A6. National Income and Its Components (Aug.) (Apr.) lapr.jiffib (Nov ) 'Mai.) (Jan.)() P T P T P T P T P T. National income, Q Annual rate, billion dollars (current) Si Compensation of employees, Q Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments, Q ± /XT z 8- V 8. Proorietors' income with invpntfwv valuation -88. Net interest, Q and capital consumption adjustments, Q 8. Rental income of persons with capital consumption adjustment, Q Current data for these series are shown on page 8. Federal Reserve BCIIBank SEPTEMBER of St. Louis98

52 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES I A I TIOL INCOME AND PRODUCT Continued Chart A7. Saving (Jan.)() P T Annual rate, billion dollars (current) 9. Gross saving (private and government), Q J Government surplus or deficit. O Wv/V Current data for these series are shown on pages 8 and 8 6 SEPTEMBER 98 IU II

53 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEAv. A I TIOL INCOME AND PRODUCT Continued Chart A8. Shares of GNP and National Income 6. Federal Government purchases of goods and services, Q \ 68. State and local government purchases i fe.ql_. ~\. Nonresidentiai fixed investment, Q 9. Reskiential fixed investment, Q ^7. Change in business inventories, Q. Net exports of goods and services, Q [Percent of National Income Percent 6. Compensation of employees, Q 8 Proprietors' income with inventory valuation and capital consumption.adjustments, Q 87. Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments, Q. -I-M J Current data for these series are shown on page 8 BCII SEPTEMBER 9bl 7

54 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES B I PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY Chart Bl. Price Movements (Dec ) (Nov.) P T (Nov.) P (Mar.) T (Jan.)() P T (Dec) (Nov.) P T (Nov.) P (Mar.) T (Jan.)() P T Implicit price deflator, 6NP, Q Fixed-weighted price index, gross business product, Q - Producer prices All commodities [Index: 97=], UL Index: 967=6- / J T J c. Implicit price deflator, 6NP (-Q span) c. Fixed-weighted price i product (-Q span) fe ^ I Percent changes at annual rate \ Producer prices 6-month spans A AM C. c. AH commodities n Industrial commodities Crude materials r / Intermediate materials / T Capital equipment, ^7. Finished consumer goods c. Capital equipment c Finished consumer goods + -! b' : ) /O.M 7 '- M / BO 98! Current data for these series are shown on pages 8, 8, and 86. Federal Reserve R Bank of St. Louis SEPTEMBER 98

55 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES B I PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY Continued Chart Bl. Price Movements Continued (Aug.) (Apr.) (Apr.) (Feb.) P T P T (Dec.) (Nov.) (Nov.) (Mar. P T P T (Jan.)() P T Consumer prices Food- ZZL Index: 967= Percent changes at annual rate X){\c All Hums ^fi.mnnth snairt Chart B. Wages and Productivity Index: 977=. Real average hourly earnings of produdioo. workers, private nonfarm economy. Average hourly earnings of production workers, private nonfarm economy (current dollars) X 6. Real average hourly compensation, all employees, nonfarm business sector, Average hourly compensation, all employees, nonfarm business sector, Q (current dollars) 96 Adjusted for overtime (in manufacturing only) and interindustry employment shifts and seasonality. Digitized Current for FRASER data for these series are shown on pages 8, 87, and 88. Federal Reserve Bank SEPTEMBER of St. Louis98 9 BCII

56 B I PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY Continued Chart B. Wages and Productivity Continued [Wages-Con, «_ Change in average hourly earnings of pr^uction workers, private nonfarm economy 6-month spans (ann. rate) j J Percent change c. Cuftent-dollar earnings,d*r T?7T V? c. Real earnings < Change in average hourly compensation, all employees, nonfarm business sector, Q c Current<loiiar compensation 6-month spans (ann. rate) ' i \\, -quarter spans (ann. rate) A X Jt,\ 6c Real compensation -quarter spans -quarter spans (ann. rate) -quarter spans Negotiated wage and benefit decisions, all industries. First year average changes, Q (ann. rate) j Productivity] 9. Average changes over life ofcontract, Q (ann. rate) 8. Output per hour, ail persons, nonfarm business sector, Q 7. Output per hour, all persons, private business sector, Q 7c Change in output per hour, private business sector, Q -quarter spans (ann. rate) t A Percent change 'Adjusted for overtime (in manufacturing only) and interindustry employment shifts and seasonality. One-month percent changes have been multiplied by a constant () to make them comparable to the annualized 6-month changes. See the current data table for actual -month percent changes. Current data for these series are shown on pages 87 and 88. SEPTEMBER 98 BCI»

57 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES LABOR FORCE, EMPLOYMENT, AND UNEMPLOYMENT Chart Cl. Civilian Labor Force and Major Components (Jan.)() P T. Civilian labor force, total (millions) HT ^ ^ Total employed (millions). Males years and over 9 "i Labor force participation rates (percent) Number unemployed (millions) 7. Total unemployed. Males years and over. Females years and over. Number employed part-time for economic 7. Number unemptoyed, MWrt wooers (millions) : "> \J v >> : : '''..'.> 6 h" 8 98 Current data for these series are shown on page 89. SEPTEMRFR QR

58 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES Chart Dl. Receipts and Expenditures (Aug.)(Apr.) (Apr.) (i : eb.) P T P T {Dec.) i an.) () P T Annual rate, billion dollars (current) 8 - "T.!«Ik"':*. Federal Government expenditures, Q X. Federal Government receipts, Q. Federal Government surplus or deficit, Q J. State and local government receipts, Q State and local government expenditures, Q. State and local government surplus or deficit, Q Current data for these series are shown on page 9. Federal Reserve Bank R? of St. Louis SEPTEMBER 98

59 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES I ) I GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES-Continued Chart D. Defense Indicators (Nov.) P (Mar.) T (Jan.) () P T [Advance Measures of Defense Activity 7. Defense Department gross obligations incurred (bil. dol.; MCD moving avg.-6-term) Defense Department military prime contract awards ( U. dol.; MCD moving av&-6-term) Defense Department gross unpaid obligations ^ ^ ± ^. Manufacturers' new orders, defense products (bil. dol.; MCD moving avg.-6-term) /i 7 7 / Current data for these series are shown on page 9. Federal Reserve BUI Bank SEPTEMBER of St. Louis 98

60 OTHER ;MPORVAI\{ h.-y^we MEASURES GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES Continued Chart D. Defense Indicators Continued P [ [intermediate and final Measures of Defense Activity 7. Output of defense and space equipment (into 967=) yi. Manufacturers' inventories, defense products (Wl dol) IZZS 6. Manufacturers' unfilled orders, defense products (, 8. Defense Department net outlays, military functions and military assistance (bh. dol.; MCD moving avg.->-term) 88. Manufacturers' shipments, defense products (bil. dol.; MCD moving avg.--term) Current data for these series are shown on page 9. SEPTEMBER 98 BCII

61 OlHO'c I GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES Continued Chart D. Defense Indicators Continued Intermediate and Final Measures of Defense Activity Con, 7. Employment in defense products industries (millions) Defense Department personnel (millions) 77. Military, active duty 78. Civilian, direct hire employment [National Defense Purchases! 6. Federal Government purchases of goods and services for national defense, Q (ann. rate, 6. National defense purchases as a percent of GNP, Q (percent) Current data for these series are shown on page 9. Federal Reserve Bill) Bank SEPTEMBER of St. Louis98

62 GlhcH ftvi^ E I U.S. INTERTIOL TRANSACTIONS Chart El. Merchandise Trade.:Aug.)iA}.r ).A,,' P T P 6. Exports, excluding military aid shipments (bil. dot.; MCD moving avg.--term) < 6. Exports of agricultural products, total ( 66. Exports of nonelectrical machinery (, 6. General imports (bil. dol.; MCD moving avg.--term) 6. Imports of petroleum and petroleum products ( 66. Imports of automobiles and parts ( ? 6 Current data for these series are shown on page 9. 6 SEPTEMRFR QR

63 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMY, MEASURES U.S. INTERTIOL TRANSACTIONS Continued Chart E. Goods and Services Movements P i!" J i ;Nov.) (Mar ) P T (Jan.)() P T r%^) Excess of receipts Excess of payments Goods and services 667. Balance on goods and services, Q Merchandise, adjusted 6. Merchandise trade balance, 68. Exports, Q- Investment income 6. Income on U.S. investments abroad, Q 6Z Income on foreign investments in the U.S., Q * NOTE: Annual totals are shown for the period prior to 96. Current data for these series are shown on page 9 Federal Reserve Bank SEPTEMBER of St. Louis98?''}

64 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC Ml SUH F I INTERTIOL COMPARISONS Chart Fl. Industrial Production Index: 967= Industrial production 78. Japan -*-. 7. OECD European countries Current data for these series are shown on page 9. 8 SEPTEMBER 98 BCII

65 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES F I INTERTIOL COMPARISONS Continued Chart F. Consumer Prices Chart F Stock Prices i'o-ec ) (Nov.) (Nov ) (Mar) P I PI >Nov.) (Mar P I (Jan.)() P I Percent changes at annual rate Consumer prices 6-month spans Stock prices 9. United States Index: 967= ± -V- 7. Japan m. 7c West Germany -sr- 7. West Germany x, 7c. Canada Current data for these series are shown on pages 9 and 96. Federal BCJ) Reserve SEPTEMBER Bank of St. 98 Louis

66 6 SEPTEMBER 98 CYCLICAL INDICATORS A I COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS Q COMPOSITE INDEXES Year and month 9. Index of leading indicators (series,, 8,, 9,, 9,, 6, 9,, 6) 9. Index of roughly coincident indicators (series, 7,, 7) 9 Index of 6 lagging indicators (series 6, 7, 7, 9, 9, 9) 9. Ratio, coincident index to lagging index 9 Marginal employment adjustments (series,,, ) 9. Capital investment commitments (series,, 9) Leading indicator subgroups 9. Inventory investment and purchasing (series 8,, 6, 9) 96. Profitability (series 9, 6, 8) 97. Money and financial flows (series, 6, ) (967 = ) (967 = ) (967 = ) (967 = ) (967 = ) (967 = ) (967 = ) (967 = ) (967 = ) H.. 6. r! H8. H9.7 r!.8 r! r!68. H7.6 r!9. 8 E)8. r8. r8.9 r8. r ) H9. H9. H9.9 r! H6.7 [H>rl7. r!. H. r!.. H. H. H. rl. H89. rl86. H8. rl79. H89. H9.9 r r78.7 r79. r7. r r!. rlo9.. H)O.6 r!8 rlo [H}r9. r9. r96 r!9. H9. H9.7 rl9. H7.9 H8. l. 8.6 ih).7 9 E>*9.9 r7,8 p7 [H)r9.8 p9 H p!.7 r!6 p!.8 r!8.6 E)pl. NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except for those, indicated by, that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Current high values are indicated by [H); for series that move counter to movements in general business activity, current low values are indicated byjj). Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are listed at the back of this issue. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "", not available. Graphs of these series are shown on pages and. Excludes series for which data are not yet available. Excludes series and 6 for which data are not yet available. Excludes series 7 for which data are not yet available. ' Excludes series 7 and 9 for which data are not yet available.

67 SEPTEMBER 98 6 CYCLICAL INDICATORS B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS MAJOR ECONOMIC PROCESS Q EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT Minor Economic Process Marginal Employment Adjustments Job Vacancies Comprehensive Employment Timing Class L, L, L L, C, L L, L, L L, C, L L, L, L L, Lg, U L, Lg, U L, Lg, U U, C, C Year and month. Average workweek of production workers, manufacturing. Average weekly overtime hours, production workers, manufacturing. Accession rate, manufacturing. Average weekly initial claims, State unemployment insurance l Layoff rate, manufacturing. Quit rate, manufacturing 6. Ratio, helpwanted advertising to persons unemployed 6. Index of help-wanted advertising in newspapers. Employeehours in nonagricultural establishments (Hours) (Hours) (Per employees) (Thous.) (Per employees) (Per employees) (Ratio) (967 = ) bil. hours) H> H> ) ) H)...9 E> H7.9. p. r p r P E>9 p7 BDi.o pi. D. pi..8 p.6 p!9 H7. P7.8 See note on page 6. Graphs of these series are shown on pages, 6, and 7. *Data exclude Puerto Rico, which is included in figures published by the source agency.

68 6 SEPTEMBER 98 CYCLICAL INDICATORS B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS Continued MAJOR ECONOMIC PROCESS Q EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT-Continued Minor Economic Process Comprehensive Employment Continued Comprehensive Unemployment Timing Class U, C, C C, C, C L, C, U U, Lg, U L, Lg, U L, Lg, U L, Lg, U Lg, Lg, Lg Lg, Lg, Lg Year and month. Persons engaged in nonagricultural activities, labor force survey. Employees on nonagricultural payrolls, establishment survey. Employees in goodsproducing industries (mining, mfg., construction) 9. Ratio, civilian employment to total population of working age 7. Number of persons unemployed, labor force survey Unemployment rate, total. Average weekly insured unemployment rate, State programs l 9. Average duration of unemployment. Unemployment rate, persons unemployed weeks and over (Thous.) (Thous.) (Thous.) (Percent) (Thous.) (Percent) (Percent) (Weeks) (Percent) ,78 9,88 9,8 88,69 88,96 89,9 6,9 6,79 6,6..7.,98,99, ,6 9,6 9,6 89, 89,699 89,98 6, 6,6 6,6.7.6.,98,776, ,99 9,76 9,89 9,8 9,8 9,76 6,67 6,68 6,7...,78 6,7, , 9, 9,8 9, 9, 9,6 6,9 6,8 6, , 6, 6, , 9,8 9,9 9,687 9,86 9,87 6,8 6,6 6, , 6, 6, ,96 9,76 9, 9,87 9,6 9,87,97,66, , 7,9 7, ,7 9,79 9,78 89,96 9,9 9,6,,, , 7,9 7, ,887 9,999 9,888 9,668 9,8 9,99,,69, ,96 7,96 7, ,9 9,66 9,6 9,9 9,8 9,7,67,67, ,87 7,7 7, , )9,88 9,7 9,8 9,6 r9,6,7,7 r, ) ,76 8,7 7, ).... 9,7 9,7 9,966 )p9,o7 )r,97 p, )7, 7,67 )7. 7. ) p 9. ).. See note on page 6. Graphs of these series are shown on pages,, 7, and 8. x Data exclude Puerto Rico, which is included in figures published by the source agency.

69 ito SEPTEMBER 98 6 CYCLICAL INDICATORS CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS Continued MAJOR ECONOMIC PROCESS ^ J PRODUCTION AND INCOME Minor Economic Process Comprehensive Output and Income Industrial Production Timing Class C, C, C C C, C C, C, C c, c T c C, C, C C, C, C C L, L C, C, C Year and month. Gross national product in 97 dollars Current dollars Persona income. Constant (97) dollars. Personal income, less transfer payments, in 97 dollars Wages and salaries in mining, mfg., and construction in 97 dollars 7. Index of industrial production, total (967 = ) 7 Index of industrial production, durable manufactures (967 = ) 7. Index of industrial production, nondurable manufactures (967 = ) 9. Value of goods output in 97 dollars 979 Revised Revised Revised,79^9,8.9,86,88.8,8.,8.,9.7,9,.8, ,7*,89.9,9,9,88.,88.,9,7.,7., !l",8^,9.,97.8,987.9,.,6.,,.,., *6,9^6,.,7,.8,.8,9.9,.9,9.,6, ^ 98,.9,77.,86.,.,6.,7.,99.,6.,.9, ,6^,.,.,7.,9.,9.,9.,7.6,6., J,79,6.,79.,.7,6.7,7.,8.6,8,6., ,.*6,.,7.6,76.6,6.,.,.7,.,.6, '9 98 Dl.6',,7,8.,.,7.7,,,7.8,6.,6 H> B«:i rl,. r,8 r,67. r,8.,.9 rl,6. rl,8.6,6.7 rl,67. rl,69. r r,9. [H)p,.8 rl,. DP»9. rl,68. DP»76 r7 P7 ) p!.8 ) p! [H>pl67. See note on page 6. Graphs of these series are shown on pages, 9,, and. See "New Features and Changes for This Issue,' page in.

70 CYCLICAL INDICATORS CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS Continued MAJOR ECONOMIC PROCESS Minor Economic Process ^ PRODUCTION AND INCOME Continued Capacity Utilization Q CONSUMPTION, TRADE, ORDERS, AND DELIVERIES Orders and Deliveries Timing Class L, C, U L, C, U L, L, L L, L, L L, L, L L,L, L L, Lg, U L, L, L Year and month 8 Rate of capacity utilization, manufacturing (BEA) 8. Rate of capacity utilization, manufacturing (FRB) 8. Rate of capacity utilization, materials Value of manufacturers' new orders, durable goods industries 6. Current dollars 7. Constant (97) dollars 8. New orders for consumer goods and materials in 97 dollars. Change in unfilled orders, durable goods industries 96. Manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries Vendor performance, companies receiving slower deliveries (Percent) (Percent) (Percent) (Bil. dol.) (Bil. dol.) (Bil. dol.) (Bil. dol.) (Bil. dol.) (Percent reporting) 979 C ) Revised * * ^ 77, '8 8.* , *8 8.* 86.' * *76 r E> '78 r D *78 E>79.'9 [H>8.' E>P78 r r r..9 H> r. E>6 [H>r89. p87. r9.98 p8.8 r. p67 r.8 po.7 r6.8 E>p7.6 6 See note on page 6. Graphs of these series are shown on pages,, and. x See "New Features and Changes for This Issue, page iii. 6 SEPTEMBER 98 itcn

71 SEPTEMBER 98 6 CYCLICAL INDICATORS B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS Continued MAJOR ECONOMIC PROCESS Minor Economic Process f j CONSUMPTION, TRADE, ORDERS, AND DELIVERIES Continued Consumption and Trade FIXED CAPITAL l i l INVESTMENT Formation of Business Enterprises Timing Class C, C, C C, C, C CL, C C, L, U U, L, U L, C, C L, L, L L, L, L L, L, L Year and month Manufacturing and trade sales 6. Current dollars (Mil. dol.) 7. Constant (97) dollars (Mil. dol.) 7. Index of industrial production, consumer goods (967 = ). Current dollars (Mil. dol.) Sales of retail stores. Constant (97) dollars (Mil. dol.). Personal consumption expenditures, automobiles 8. Index of consumer, sentiment (st Q 966 = ). Index of net business formation (967 = ) Number of new business incorporations (Number) 979 Revised 77,8 79,96 87,79,86, 6,..8 7, 7,7 7,,,, 69.* ,,,76 8,69 9, 9, 8,7 6, 6, ,6 7,98 7,96,96,99,787 6' ,,89, 98,8,,7 6, 6,887 6, , 7,6 76,8,9,,778 6^ ,6,9,687,,68 8,7,86 8, 8, , 76,96 77,7,,77,7 6^ ,78,8, , 7,9,69 6,6,8, ,6 78,899 77,6,7,9, ,7,8,6,,7,6,6 9,, , 7,97 77,8,66,79,7 CL ,6,97 9,76 98,6 7,96 7,78,87 9,9,7,6,9,6 6,7 6,77 7, ,9 79,89 8,6 8, 8,76 8,,7,,,8,97,97 ^ ).,8,66 6,8 7, 6,888,97 9,8, 9,898 8,7 [H>, 8, ,6 86,8 87,68,768,66 H>,8 E>7; ,86 7,66 7,97,9 9, r, rl7,9 rl6,6 r!8,.9 B)O.7. 8,8 8, r87,8,6,89 r,7 r6! H. el!. H>9,7 p,9o7 E)p,6 pl7,7. p!. r87, H)p87,69 r,6 p,87 7. H>77. Octbber See note on page 6. Graphs of these series are shown on pages,,, and See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.

72 66 SEPTEMBER 98 CYCLICAL INDICATORS B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS Continued MAJOR ECONOMIC PROCESS Minor Economic Process Q FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT Continued Business Investment Commitments Timing Class L, L, L L, L, L L, L, L L, L, L L, C, U U, Lg, U C Lg, Lg Year and month Contracts and orders for plant and equ pment. Current dollars. Constant (97) dollars Value of manufacturers' new orders, capital goods industries, nondefense. Current dollars 7. Constant (97) dollars 9. Construction contracts for commercial and industrial buildings i Square feet of floor space Square meters of floor space. Newly approved capital appropriations,, manufacturing corporations 97. Backlog of capital appropriations,, manufacturing corporations (Bil. dol.) (Bil. dol.) (Bil. dol.) (Bil. dol.) (Millions) (Millions) (Bil. dol.) (Bil. dol.) , K 67^ K 69^ * , !68 76' * ^8 r6.8 r.9. r!.8 r! H) *. 88! * H)9..8. D D H> ' E> *.7 9! r8.6 p rl97 p! r. p r!.6 p! E>p9!i6 [H)p96.9 See note on page 6. Graphs of these series are shown on pages,, and. This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F.W. Dodge Division. Converted to metric units by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

73 SEPTEMBER CYCLICAL INDICATORS CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS Continued MAJOR ECONOMIC PROCESS Q FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT-Continued Minor Economic Process Business Investment Expenditures Residential Construction Commitments and Investment Timing Class C, Lg, Lg C, Lg, Lg C Lg, U C, Lg, C Lg, Lg, Lg C Lg, C L, L, L L, L, L L, L, L Year and month 6. Business expenditures for new plant and equipment, total 69. Machinery and equipment sales and business construction expenditures 76. Index of industrial production, business equipment (967 = ) Nonresidentia fixed investment in97 dollars 86. Total 87. Structures 88. Producers' durable equipment 8. New private housing units started, total thous.) 9. Index of new private housing units authorized by local building permits (967 = ) 89. Residential fixed investment, total, in 97 dollars 979 Revised EL8.6,67,, o!8 6! !.'6!,76,867, ! 7' ,78,777, ^6 8! ! *.'7 *,697,, ' ' iii!,89,7, ' *! 7 io7!i, 98, ! * ' 8,77,, ) ,,, ) H>. H)l,66,, E)i.'o [)6, [H)r [H)r.' rll6.*7,,8 rl, r7.8 ra96 p7. 8. E)pi 8. rl,9 p ra69 See note on page 6. Graphs of these series are shown on pages,, and. See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.

74 CYCLICAL INDICATORS CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS Continued MAJOR ECONOMIC PROCESS Q INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT Minor Economic Process Inventory Investment Inventories on Hand and on Order Timing Class L, L, L L, L, L L, L, L L, L, L Lg, Lg, Lg Lg, Lg, Lg Lg, Lg, Lg Lg, Lg, Lg L, Lg, Lg Year and month Change in business inventories in 97 dollars 6. Change in inventories on hand and on order, 97 dollars Monthly data Smoothed data Change in book value of mfg. and trade inventories, total 8. Change in stocks of materials and supplies on hand and on order, mfg. (Bil dol.) Manufacturing and trade inventories 7. Current dollars (Bil dol.) 7. Constant (97) dollars (Bil dol.) 6. Manufacturers' inventories of finished goods, book value (Bil dol.) 77. Ratio, constantdollar inventories to sales, mfg. and trade (Ratio) 78. Stocks of materials and supplies on hand and on order, mfg. (Bil dol.) 979.* ^ ! ! ,7, Y ,6-6, , , Y , YA H> ,7.7 6, Drl6!8 r8 r8.8 rl7.6 r-.7 r. r r r9. r68 r69 r r rl.69 rl >p.9 H)pl.88 p6 E>pl.9 [H>p99. E>p67. H>8. E)pl.7 E)p.8 See note on page 6. Graphs of these series are shown on pages,, 6, and 7. Series is a weighted -term moving average (with weights,,,) placed on the terminal month of the span. SEPTEMBER 98

75 SEPTEMBER CYCLICAL INDICATORS CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS Continued MAJOR ECONOMIC PROCESS f g[ PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS Minor Economic Process Sensitive Commodity Prices Stock Prices Profits and Profit Margins Timing Class L, L, L U, L, L L, L, L L, L, L L, L, L L, C, L L, C, L L, L, L Year and month 9. Change in sensitive crude materials prices Monthly data (Percent) Smoothed data (Percent) Index of spot market prices, raw industrials (967 = ) 9. Index of stock prices, common stocks (9- = ) Corporate profits after taxes 6. Current dollars 8. Constant (97) dollars Corporate profits after taxes with IVA and CCAdj l 79. Current dollars 8. Constant (97) dollars. Ratio, profits (after taxes) to total corporate domestic income (Percent) ^6 l!6 * 7. " *. 9 CL 66\9 * in'! i 6^7 * *. 96*. 7 ^. ii!i ^6 6\b 6o!i ii.* ' 97^8 * * 8* 99.. ib'b [H> E> E> E> Dl69.* (H>87.'8 [H>* H>6." ). rl. rl. -.8 rll rl rl.7 r7.9 H9 r8. r9..7. r See note on page 6. Graphs of these series are shown on pages, 8, and 9. ^VA, inventory valuation adjustment; CCAdj, capital consumption adjustment. Series is a weighted -term moving average (with weights,,,) placed on the terminal month of the span. Average for, 9, 6, and

76 7 SEPTEMBER 98 CYCLICAL INDICATORS CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS Continued MAJOR ECONOMIC PROCESS JSm PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS Continued Minor Economic Process Profits and Profit Margins Continued Cash Flows Unit Labor Costs and Labor Share Timing Class U, L, L L, L, L L, L, L L, L, L L, L, L Lg, Lg, Lg Lg, Lg, Lg Lg, Lg, Lg Lg, Lg, Lg Year and month 8. Ratio, profits (after taxes) with IVA and CCAdj to corp. domestic income' (Percent). Profits (after taxes) per dollar of sales, all manufacturing corporations (Cents) 6. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, nonfarm business sector (977 = ). Current dollars Net cash flow, corporate bil.dol.). Constant (97) dollars bil.dol.) 6 Index of unit labor cost, private business sector (977 = ) 68. Labor cost per unit of real gross domestic product, nonfinancial corporations (Dollars) 6. Index of labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing (967 = ) 6. Compensation of employees as a percent of national income (Percent) 979 Revised *6 7. 7*9 * *9 * * 7* 8* * 6. *8 96*6 66-.* * ! * 7 * 96. 6'.9 * * * 8.7 * * i.'i 9*8 6'l * ** * ^9 8*6 * *.*.9 96* * 98 6*. *6 )97'. [H)8. H>' B>r6." B>."i r96*8 r7.* rl'l E>rll'8 B>rl r7.* 9. B>p. See note on page 6. Graphs of these series are shown on pages, 9, and X VA, inventory valuation adjustment; CCAdj, capital consumption adjustment. See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.

77 SEPTEMBER 98 7 CYCLICAL INDICATORS CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS Continued MAJOR ECONOMIC PROCESS WM MONEY AND CREDIT Minor Economic Process Money Velocity of Money Credit Flows Timing Class L, L, L L, C, U L, L, L L, L, L L,Lf L C, C, C C Lg, C L, L, L Year and month 8. Change in money supply (Ml-B) (Percent). Change in money supply (M) (Percent). Change in total liquid assets Monthly data (Percent) Smoothed data x (Percent). Money supply (Ml-B) in 97 dollars (Bil. dol.) 6. Money supply (M) in 97 dollars (Bil. dol.) 7. Ratio, gross national product to money supply (Ml-B) (Ratio) 8. Ratio, personal income to money supply (M) (Ratio) Net change in mortgage debt held by financial institutions and life insurance companies 979 Revised Revised H>.9. H) D [) E> E> ) ) r. p r.6 pi re.7 el re.8 e r!97. p! r86. p88. r rl.7 H>pl P.9 See note on page 6. Graphs of these series are shown on pages,, and Series is a weighted -term moving average (with weights,,,) placed on the terminal month of the span. See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii. Average for weeks ended, 9, and 6.

78 CYCLICAL INDICATORS CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS Continued MAJOR ECONOMIC PROCESS WM MONEY AND CREDIT Continued Minor Economic Process Credit Flows Continued Credit Difficulties Bank Reserves Interest Rates Timing Class L, L, L L, L, L L, L, L L, L, L L, L, L L, U, U L, Lg, U U Lg, Lg C, Lg, Lg Year and month. Net change in bank loans to businesses Net change in consumer installment credit. Total private borrowing mil. dol.). Current liabilities of business failures (Mil. dol.) 9. Delinquency rate, days and over, consumer installment loans (Percent) 9 Free reserves (Mil. dol.) 9. Member bank borrowing from the Federal Reserve (Mil. dol.) 9. Federal funds (Percent). Treasury bill rate (Percent) 979 Revised , , ,9 -,7 897,777, , ,9,79,97, , ,7 -,7 -,79,,96, , ,6 -,68,,6, , , ,, ,96.69., , 9 6, ,988. [H> p-,8 p-, p-,87 pi, [H}p,6 pi, E>7., p-96 p-,76 p-6 pi, pi,78 pi, E> [H>p,8.. E>. rp-,6 (H>p-, p-,8 pi, p, p, )9. 6 E>6..6 r.6 p6. 7. rp-,69 p-,7 -l,8 pi,7 pi,, ".9 See note on page 6. Graphs of these series are shown on pages,, and. *See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii. Average for weeks ended, 9, and 6. Average for weeks ended, 9, 6, and ''Average for weeks ended,, 7, and. 7 SEPTEMBER 98 ito

79 CYCLICAL INDICATORS CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS-Continued MAJOR ECONOMIC PROCESS 9 9 MONEY AND CREDIT Continued Minor Economic Process Interest Rates Continued Outstanding Debt Timing Class Lg, Lg, Lg C Lg, Lg U, Lg, Lg Lg, Lg, Lg Lg, Lg, Lg Lg, Lg, Lg Lg, Lg, Lg Lg, Lg, Lg Lg, Lg, Lg Year and month 6. Corporate bond (Percent). Treasury bond yields (Percent) 7. Municipal bond yields (Percent) 8. Secondary market yields on FHA mortgages (Percent) 67. Bank rates on short-term business loans (Percent) 9. Average prime rate charged by (Percent) 66. Consumer installment credit (Mil. dol.) 7. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding, weekly reporting large commercial banks (Mil. dol.) 9. Ratio, consumer installment credit to personal income (Percent) ,7 7,7 76,677,98 7,7 8, ^ ,6 8,6 86,6,,88 6, ,79 9,8 9,88 9,,, * ,8,,78,97,, * , 8,78 9,6, 6, 6, ^ ,69,,969 6,8,, ll!6...,77,, 6,99 6,88 6, , ,6,8 6,7 67,79 7,76 7, ' , 9,9,7 7,6 7,6 7, " ,778 6, 8, 7,6 77,79 79,6 7 H.67 )6. )6.8. H> E>7.96 E>J.9 E). 9.9 [H),8 r8,8 E)pl86, "87,7 p! See note on page 6. Graphs of these series are shown on pages,, and. Average for weeks ended,, and 8. Average for weeks ended,, and 7. Average for through. ''Average for weeks ended, 9, and 6. SEPTEMBER 98 7

80 7 SEPTEMBER 98 ItO CYCLICAL INDICATORS DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE Q DIFFUSION INDEXES Year and month 9. Twelve leading indicator components (series,, 8,, 9,, 9,, 6, 9,, 6) 9. Four roughly coincident indicator components (series, 7,, 7) 9. Six lagging indicator components (series 6, 7, 7, 9, 9, 9) 96. Average workweek of production workers, manufacturing ( industries) 96. Initial claims for State unemployment insurance, week including the th ( areas) 96 Number of employees on private nonagricultural payrolls (7 industries) -month span 6-month span -month span 6-month span -month span 6-month span -month span 9-month span -month span 9-month span -month span 6-month span , , , r rloo.o 7. r. 7. rloo.o " r97. r8. p P r r67. r7.8 p " r7. p7. p68.6 r68. p7.8 NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising. (Half of the unchanged components are counted as rising.) Data are centered within the spans: -month indexes are placed on the d month, 6- month indexes on the th month, and 9-month indexes on the 6th month of the span; -quarter indexes are placed on the st month of the d quarter and -quarter indexes on the d month of the d quarter. Series are seasonally adjusted except for those, indicated by, that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are listed at the back of this issue. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "", not available. Graphs of these series are shown on page 6. x Figures are the percent of components declining. Excludes series for which data are not yet available. Excludes series and 6 for which data are not yet available. ^Excludes series 7 for which data are not yet available. Excludes series 7 and 9 for which data are not yet available.

81 SEPTEMBER 98 7 CYCLICAL INDICATORS C I DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE Continued H I DIFFUSION NDEXES Continued Year and month 96. Value of manufacturers' new orders, durable goods industries ( industries) 96. Newly approved capital appropriations, deflated (7 manufacturing industries) 966. Index of industrial production ( industries) 967. Index of spot market prices, raw industrials ( industrial materials) 968. Index of stock prices, common stocks 96. Net profits, manufacturing (about 7 companies) -month span 9-month span -quarter span -Q moving average -month span 6-month span -month span 9-month span -month span 9-month span (-quarter span) 979 Revised Revised * * # " ' * "66.7 "66.7 " " "66.7 "8. " ' "8. * * * * ' p r P.9 P p r. p 7.9 p See note on page 7. Graphs of these series are shown on page 7. x Based on industries through 98 and on industries thereafter. Based on 8 industries for 979, on industries through 979, on industries through 98, on industries through 98, and on industries thereafter. Data for component industries are not shown in table C but are available from the source. This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun Bradstreet, Inc. ''Based on components (excluding rosin). See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.

82 76 SEPTEMBER 98 licit CYCLICAL INDICATORS C I DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE Continued Q DIFFUSION INDEXES-Continued Year and quarter 97. Business expenditures for new plant and equipment (8 industries) a. Actual expenditures b. Later anticipations c. Early anticipations 97. New orders, turing Actual manufac- Anticipated 97. Net profits, manufacturing and trade Actua Anticipated 97 Net sales, manufacturing and trade Actual Anticipated (-Q span) (-Q span) (-Q span) (-Q span) (-Q span) (-Q span) (-Q span) (-Q span) (-Q span) 978 First quarter Second quarter... Third quarter Fourth quarter First quarter Second quarter... Third quarter Fourth quarter First quarter Second quarter... Third quarter Fourth quarter First quarter Second quarter... Third quarter Fourth quarter Q DIFFUSION NDEXES Continued Year and quarter 97. Number of employees, manufacturing and trade* Actual Anticipated 97. Level of inventories, manufacturing and Actual Anticipated 976. Selling prices, manu facturing i Actua Anticipated 977. Selling prices, wholesale trade Actual Anticipated 978. Selling prices, retail trade l Actual Anticipated (-Q span) (-Q span) (-Q span) (-Q span) (-Q span) (-Q span) (-Q span) (-Q span) (-Q span) (-Q span) 978 First quarter Second quarter... Third quarter Fourth quarter First quarter Second quarter... Third quarter Fourth quarter First quarter Second quarter... Third quarter Fourth quarter First quarter Second quarter... Third quarter Fourth quarter NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising. (Half of the unchanged components are counted as rising.) Data are placed at the end of the span. Series are seasonally adjusted except for those, indicated b y, that appear to contain no seasonal movement. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "", not available. Graphs of these series are shown on page 8. x This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun Bradstreet, Inc. Dun Bradstreet diffusion indexes are based on surveys of about, business executives.

83 SEPTEMBER CYCLICAL INDICATORS C DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE Continued K f l SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEX COMPONENTS: Basic Data and Directions of Change Diffusion index components 98 r ^ 96. AVERAGE WORKWEEK OF PRODUCTION WORKERS, MANUFACTURING l (Average weekly hours) All manufacturing industries , +,.. +. Percent rising of components (78) (8) (6) (7) (7) () (8) (8) Durable goods industries: Lumber and wood products Furniture and fixtures + 9, o ,8 + 9, r8.9 8, Stone, clay, and glass products Primary metal industries r Fabricated metal products Machinery, except electrical o r.. +. o.. Electric and electronic equipment Transportation equipment r Instruments and related products Miscellaneous manufacturing o o. r Nondurable goods industries: Food and kindred products Tobacco manufacturers o ,6 9.8 r Textile mill products Apparel and other textile products o r o Paper and allied products Printing and publishing.6 + 7,. 7. o r o 7. Chemicals and allied products Petroleum and coal products o.6 + o.6 o. o o r.7 r o.7..7 Rubber and miscellaneous plastics products Leather and leather products ,. + r VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS' NEW ORDERS, DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES ' (Millions of dollars) All durable goods industries - 8,8 + 8,6 + 86, ,8 + 88,6 + 88, + 89, 87, Percent rising of components (6) () () (66) () () () () Primary metals Fabricated metal products -,67 -,6 +,87 +,6 -,79 -,6 +,8 -,9 -,89 +,67 -, +,979 +,66,8 -,66 9,9 Machinery, except electrical Electrical machinery 7,78 +,6,876 -,9 + 6,7 +, , +,96-7,8 -,7 + 7, +,6-6,76 -, + 7,9 -,8 Transportation equipment Other durable goods industries 7,8-6,69 + 8,6 + 7,7 + 9, - 6,6-8, ,896 +,9-6,8-9,7 + 7, +,6 + 7,86 -,66-6,8 NOTE. To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) = rising, () = unchanged, and (-) = falling. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "", not available. Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency. Data for most of the diffusion index components are not available for publication; however, they are included in the totals and directions of change for the six major industry groups shown here. Based on components.

84 78 SEPTEMBER 98 KCII CYCLICAL INDICATORS C I DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE Continued SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEX COMPONENTS: Basic Data and Directions of Change-Continued Diffusion index components 98 ^ 966. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (967 = ) All industrial production,,8 +..9,7,9.8 Percent rising of components (8) (6) (6) (6) (6) (6) (7) (8) Durable manufactures: Lumber and products Furniture and fixtures Clay, glass, and stone products Primary metals Fabricated metal products.. Nonelectrical machinery Electrical machinery Transportation equipment Instruments Miscellaneous manufactures Nondurable manufactures: Foods Tobacco products Textile mill products Apparel products , Paper and products Printing and publishing Chemicals and products Petroleum products Rubber and plastics products Leather and products Mining: Metal mining Coal Oil and gas extraction Stone and earth minerals NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: ( + ) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (-) = falling, preliminary; and "", not available. Revised. See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii. Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency. Where actual data for separate industries are not available, estimates are used to compute the percent rising. The "r" indicates revised; "p"

85 SEPTEMBER CYCLICAL INDICATORS DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE Continued H 9 SELECTED DIFFUSIONINDEX COMPONENTS: Basic Data and Directions of Change Continued Diffusion index components INDEX OF SPOTMARKET PRICES RAW INDUSTRIALS Raw industrials price index (967 = ) , Percent rising of components (8) (6) () (6) () () (6) (69) (7) Dollars Copper scrap. (pound).. (kilogram)...76, Lead scrap... (pound).. (kilogram) o.9. Steel scrap.. (U.S. ton)., (metricton) Tin (pound).. (kilogram) Zinc (pound)., (kilogram) o.6.97 o Burlap (yard).. (meter) Cotton (pound).. (kilogram) , Print cloth... (yard).. (meter) Wool tops... (pound).. (kilogram) o o Hides (pound).. (kilogram) ,8.6 +,. -.. Rosin ( pounds).. ( kilograms).. o o o o Rubber (pound).. (kilogram) Tallow (pound).. (kilogram) o NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along preliminary; and "", not available. x Data are not seasonally adjusted. Components are converted to with the numbers: ( + ) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and ( ) = falling. metric units by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The "r" indicates revised; "p",

86 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES TIOL INCOME AND PRODUCT i i GNP AND FPERSOL INCOME Year and quarter. Gross national product in current dollars a. Total (Ann bil. rate, dol.) b. Difference c. Percent change at annual rat. Gross national product in 97 dollars a. Tota (Anrl. rate bil dol.) b. Difference (Ann. rate c. Percent change at annual rate 7. Per capita GNP in 97 dollars dollars) Final sales in 97 dollars 978 First quarter Second quarter... Third quarter Fourth quarter First quarter Second quarter... Third quarter Fourth quarter First quarter Second quarter... Third quarter Fourth quarter First quarter Second quarter... Third quarter Fourth quarter... Year and quarter,, 9.6, 9., 7.9,.6, 7.6,., 96., 7.7, 6.8, 67., 76, 8 r, 88.8 D. Current dollars bi. dol.) r r. GNP AND PERSOL INCOME Continued Disposable personal income. Constant (97) dollars Per capita in 97; I dollars (Ann. rate dollars),.,.8,6.7,6.8,79.9,7,8.,9.6,.9,6.,7.9,.6,6. rl,. Total dollars (Ann bil. in current rate, dol.) r-6. i a 9. 9 _.7 i. ( i6 r _.6 6,E 6,6 6,? 6,6 6,6 6,6 6,6 6, 6,6 6,7 6,6 6,99 6,6 r6,8c PERSOL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES Total in 97 dollars Durable goods in current dollars,8.6,6.8,.,.,6.,.,.6,9.,.8,6.,76.9,9.7 rl,7.8,99 6 Durable goods in 97 dollars 978 First quarter Second quarter... Third quarter Fourth quarter First quarter Second quarter... Third quarter Fourth quarter First quarter Second quarter... Third quarter Fourth quarter First quarter Second quarter... Third quarter Fourth quarter...,98, 7,.,,8,6,66 8 8,7.,76,78,8 6,897.,97. 8 rl, , , rl, , ,,,,, 7,, 6,,,,,, r, ,78,,69.9,6 6,,78,,8 rl,6,66,68,7,8, r9. 8,, , r rl7. NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except for those, indicated by, that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are listed at the back of this issue. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "", not available. Graphs of these series are shown on pages and. SEPTEMBER 98

87 SEPTEMBER 98 8 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES TIOL INCOME AND PRODUCT Continued j Q PERSOL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES Continued H H GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT Year and quarter 6. Nondurable goods in current dollars 8. Nondurable goods in 97 dollars 7. Services in current dollars 9. Services in 97 dollars. Total in current dollars. Total in 97 dollars. Fixed investment, total, in current dollars Fixed investment, total, in 97 dollars 978 First quarter Second quarter... Third quarter Fourth quarter First quarter Second quarter... Third quarter Fourth quarter First quarter Second quarter... Third quarter Fourth quarter First quarter Second quarter... Third quarter Fourth quarter r r r r r r r r8.9 GROSS PRIVATE mst DOMESTIC INVEST.-Con. ^ M GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF GOODS AND SERVICES Year and quarter. Change in business inventories in current dollars Change in business inventories in 97 dollars 6. Total in current dollars 6. Total in 97 dollars 6. Federal Government in current dollars 6 Federal Government in 97 dollars 66. State and local government in current dollars 67. State and local government in 97 dollars 978 First quarter Second quarter... Third quarter Fourth quarter First quarter Second quarter... Third quarter Fourth quarter First quarter Second quarter... Third quarter Fourth quarter First quarter Second quarter... Third quarter Fourth quarter r rl r r r H r See note on page 8. Graphs of these series are shown on pages,, and

88 8 SEPTEMBER 98 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES TIOL INCOME AND PRODUCT Continued Q j FOREIGN TRADE TIOL INCOME Mm AND ITS COMPONENTS Year and quarter Net exports of goods and services. Current dollars. Constant (97) dollars Exports of goods andservices Current dollars 6. Constant (97) dollars Imports jf goods and services Current dollars 7. Constant (97) dollars. National income in current dollars 8. Compensation of employees ( Ann. rate, 978 First quarter Second quarter... Third quarter Fourth quarter First quarter Second quarter... Third quarter Fourth quarter First quarter Second quarter... Third quarter Fourth quarter First quarter Second quarter... Third quarter Fourth quarter... Voar tear and quarter r.8 E 8. Proprietors' income with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments r6. 9 J TIOL NCOME AND ITS COMPONENTS-Continued 8. Renta ncome j of persons with capital consumption adjustment bil. ciol.) r Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments , r! Net interest (Ann bil. rate, dol.) r , r!. 9. Gross saving (private and government) ^ 9,6.6,7.7,77.7,8.6,9.6,9.,986.,.,88.,7.,.,.8,9 r, SAVING 9. Business saving Personal saving,8.,8.,6.,6.7,9.9,9.,76.7,8.,8.,69.,7.,66.8,7. rl, First quarter Second quarter... Third quarter Fourth quarter First quarter Second quarter... Third quarter Fourth quarter First quarter Second quarter... Third quarter Fourth quarter First quarter Second quarter... Third quarter Fourth quarter.....e \ 9. c 6.C 7, S 9..C) H r , r r H6.6 See note on page 8. Graphs of these series are shown on pages,, and 6.

89 IICII SEPTEMBER 98 8 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES TIOL INCOME AND PRODUCT Continued Q j SAVING-Continued ^m SHARES OF GNP AND TIOL INCOME Year and quarter 98. Government surplus or deficit, total 9 Personal saving rate (percent of disposable personal income) (Percent). Personal consumption expenditures, total (Percent). Nonresidential fixed investment (Percent) Percent of gross national product 9. Residential fixed investment (Percent) 7. Change in business inventories (Percent). Net exports of goods and services (Percent) 978 First quarter Second quarter... Third quarter Fourth quarter , First quarter Second quarter... Third quarter Fourth quarter First quarter Second quarter... Third quarter Fourth quarter First quarter Second quarter... Third quarter Fourth quarter r-..6 r. 6 r6... r8. ro.8. ro.7 Q 9 SHARES OF GNP AND TIOL INCOME Continued Year and quarter 6. Federal Government purchases of goods and services Percent of GNP-Continued 68. State and local government purchases of goods and services 6. Compensation of employees 8 Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAdj l F'ercent of national income 8. Rental income of persons with CCAdj x (Percent) 87. Corporate profits with IVA and CCAdj' 89. Net interest (Percent) (Percent) (Percent) (Percent) (Percent) (Percent) 978 First quarter Second quarter... Third quarter Fourth quarter First quarter Second quarter... Third quarter Fourth quarter First quarter Second quarter... Third quarter Fourth quarter , First quarter Second quarter... Third quarter Fourth quarter r r See note on page 8. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 6 and 7. ^VA, inventory valuation adjustment; CCAdj, capital consumption adjustment.

90 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY m PRICE MOVEMENTS Implicit price deflator, gross national product Fixed-weighted price index, gross business product Consumer prices, all items Consumer prices, food Year and month Index c. Change over -quarter spans' Index c. Change over -quarter spans l Index c. Change over -month spans l c. Change over 6-month spans Index c. Change over -month spans l c. Change over 6-month spans' (97 = ) percent) (97 = ) percent) (967 = ) (Percent) percent) (967 = ) (Percent) percent) 979 8* ^ ^ ^ ! * * \ * J 9.8 9! rl9l!l r6. r!99! r See note on page 8. Graphs of these series are shown on pages and 9. Percent changes are centered within the spans: -month changes are placed on the d month, 6-month changes are placed on the th month, and -quarter changes are placed on the st month of the d quarter. SEPTEMBER 98

91 SEPTEMBER 98 8 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY Continued Q PRICE MOVEMENTS-Continued Producer prices, all commodities Producer jjrices, industrial commodities Producer prices, crude materials Year and month Index c. Change over -month spans c. Change over 6-month spans l. c. Change over -month spans c. Change over 6-month spans Index c. Change over -month spans * c. Change over 6-month spans ' (967 = ) (Percent) percent) (967 = ) (Percent) percent) (967 = ) (Percent) percent) rll r! r -. 7 r rl.l ro.l r..7 rl. ro r8. rl. r See note on Graphs of these series are shown on page. Percent changes are centered within the spans: -month changes are placed on the d month and 6-month changes are placed on the th month.

92 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES B I PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY Continued Q PRICE MOVEMENTS Continued Producer prices, intermediate materials Producer prices, capital equipment Producer prices, finished consumer goods Year and month Index c. Change over -month spans l c. Change over 6-month spans Index c. Change over -month spans* c. Change over 6-month spans l. Index c. Change over -month spans l c. Change over 6-month spans (967 = ) (Percent) percent) (967 = ) (Percent) percent) (967 = ) (Percent) percent) r! rl rl r rl.o r r ro.9 r r r.8 r See note on page 8. Graphs of these series are shown on page. x Percent changes are centered within the spans: -month changes are placed on the d month and 6-month changes are placed on the th month. PPTFMRCD QQ

93 SEPTEMBER OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY Continued j Q WAGES AND PRODUCTIVITY Average hourly earnings, production workers, private nonfarni economy, adjusted Average hourly compensation, all employees, nonfarm business sector Year and month. Index (977 = ) Current-dollar earnings c. Change over -month spans (Percent) c. Change over 6-month spans percent). Index (977 = ) Real earnings c. Change over -month spans (Percent) c. Change over 6-month spans percent). Index (977 = ) Current-dollar compensation c. Change over -quarter spans percent) c. Change over -quarter spans percent) * CL ^7 9. 9* * J. J * rlo.o r r.6 H9J rll H r. r7.9 p r-. p-. rl.* r9.6 H9. p!.6. pi. r9. p9.6 r-.8 p. See note on page 8. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 9 and. Adjusted for overtime (in manufacturing only) and interindustry employment shifts. Percent changes are centered within the spans: -month changes are placed on the d month, 6-month changes are placed on the th month, -quarter changes are placed on the st month of the d quarter, and -quarter changes are placed on the middle month of the d quarter.

94 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY Continued j M WAGES AND PRODUCTIVITY Continued Year and month 6. Index Average hourly compensation, all employees, nonfarm business sector-continued Real compensation 6c. Change over -quarter spans * 6c. Change over -quarter spans Negotiated wage and benefit decisions, all First year average changes 9. Average changes over life of contract 7. Index Output per hour, all persons business sector 7c. Change over -quarter spans l private 7c. Change over -quarter spans ' 8. Index of output per hour all persons, nonfarm business sector (977 = ) percent) percent) percent) percent) (977 = ) percent) percent) (977 = ) "!:!.8. 99' * 99^ * ' ^ *.l * *9 97^6 -. -* ^ * ^.6 6!6 98^ J. -O.* ^. 99^ 9^ rl'.9 99^6 98 r9*.7 r. pl. p7..'.6 IOO'.O r. pll. plo.o rlol.o r.8 rl. See note on page 8. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 9 and. Percent changes are centered within the spans: -quarter changes are placed on the st month of the d quarter and -quarter changes are placed on the middle month of the d quarter. SEPTEMBER 98

95 SEPTEMBER 98 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES C I LABOR FORCE, EMPLOYMENT, AND UNEMPLOYMENT D CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE ANDMAJOR COMPONENTS Year and month Civilian labor force. Total. Employed. Males years and over Labor force participatior. Females years and over rates Both sexes, 6-9 years of age 7. Total. Males years and over Number unemployed. Females years and over 6. Both sexes, 6-9 years of age 7. Fulltime workers. Number employed part-time for economic reasons (Thous.) (Thous.) (Percent) (Percent) (Percent) (Thous.) (Thous.) (Thous.) (Thous.) (Thous.) (Thous.) 979,,9,78 96,6 96, 96, ,98,99,96,,88,88,,,6,,,,7,69,6,,9,,,66,6 96,9 96, 96, ,98,776,78,6,8,97,78,7,77,7,6,,6,,,79,,67,,,9 97,77 97, 97, ,78 6,7,97,77,,,,,8,9,,,,66,67,,86,,66,6, 97, 97, 97, , 6, 6,7,,8,,,,76,,,6,78,8,9,89,, 98,8,7,7 97,78 97,87 97, , 6, 6,,69,8,76,,,9,7,6,,,,6,,,7,7,6, 97, 97,6 96, , 7,9 7,8,9,69,8,,,69,,78,68,8 6,86 6,,8,76,969,,9,98 96,999 97, 97, , 7,9 7,8,6,6,6,6,6,,76,697,6 6,6 6, 6,6,86,,8,67,8,67 97,6 97,9 97, ,96 7,96 7,78,,,,7,7,7,697,69,6 6, 6,6 6,,,76,8 98,,68 6,77 97,696 97,97 98, ,87 7,7 7,76,,,,7,68,7,7,76,7 6,6 6,96 6,7,7,,7 6,7 7,6 6,76 98,976 99, 98, ,76 8,7 7,78,6,6,,7,88,7,76,787,68 6,9 6,69 6,,,,798 6,6 6,6 98,96 98, , 7,67,7,,797,7,,6 6, 6,,,87 See note on page 8. Graphs of these series are shown on page.

96 9 SEPTEMBER 98 Ittll OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES Q RECEIPTS AND EXPENDITURES fflj DEFENSE INDICATORS Federal Government State and local governments* / Advance measures of defense activity Year and month. Surplus or deficit. Receipts. Expenditures. Surplus or deficit. Receipts. Expenditures 7. Defense Department gross obligations incurred. Defense Department military prime contract awards Defense Department gross unpaid obligations outstanding. Value of manufacturers' new orders, defense products (Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) 979 -" 77*.6 8!.9.',77,6,9,76,77,76 6,,67 67,8,97,6,9 98-8J '! :! -.'.*9 O6! 6.'6 9.'6 8!o" K9 6\ 8^9.7.' 6 " " 9 6.'7 9,78,68,6,79,,78,8,,997,96,7,7 6,,8 6,6,8,67,9 68,88 68,68 68,976 7, 8, 7,886 6, 68,6 68,,8,,986,79,7,,9,,6-6\ -66! 8'. CL9 6! 7 87! 6^6 e '. o!6,78,99,86,7,78,89, 7,,78 7,7 7, 7,8 7,88 68,97 7,96 7,766 7,8 7,,77,,,7,,6 -U ! 8 8'.,677,78, 6,768 7,6 7, 76,66 76,6 79,6 6,8,9, * 6. 7,'i 66*,,876,8,7 6,79 9,66 77,9 76, 79,,986,7, ! 6 67^ 66*. 6 ^9.7 7^8,88,7,6 7, 7,8 7,866 8,89 8, 8,966, 6,,8 r-7.* r6l'!6 r6.'l 6 r77.,,699,6 8,96 7,97 6,69 8,67 8,89 86,,976,8,96 p!6,86 88, r, p,878 See note on page 8. Graphs of these series are shown on pages and Based on national income and product accounts.

97 SEPTEMBER 98 9 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES Continued Q DEFENSE INDICATORS-Continued Intermediate and final measures of defense activity National defense purchases Year and month 7. Output of defense and space equipment (967 = ). Manufacturers' inventories, defense products (Mil. dol.) 6. Manufacturers' unfilled orders, defense products (Mil. dol.) 8. Defense Department net outlays (Mil. dol.) 88. Manufacturers' shipments, defense products (Mil. dol.) 7. Employment in defense products industries (Thous.) Defense Department personnel 77. Military, active (Thous.) 78. Civilian, direct hire (Thous.) 6. Federal purchases of goods and services 6. Federal purchases as a percent of GNP (Percent) 979 Revised ,68 6,7 6,8 7,686 9,6 9,7 9,6 9, 9,,666,677,98,,6,78,,, ^ * ,8 7,6 7, 9,79,89,9 9,99 9,78 9,,7,7,88,8,87,96,,8, J.* , 7, 7,8,,86,,99, 9,98,7,97,88,,6,7,7,, *6 i' ,66 8,6 8,66,7,9, 9,98,6,8,96,89,8,8,,6,,9, * ,76 8,89 9,6,,8 7,,,6,,98,9,9,,,6,9,, !6 ^ , 9,76 9,79 8,, 6,7,6,6,,8,66,6,,6,,8,, m ,,7,7 6,7 6,97 67,,,,6,,9,6,7,6,69,,9, ,698,8, 67, 67,6 68,,7,9,,6,77,68,8,8,86,,6, * ,,68,98 69, 7,7 7,98,769,9,6,6,86,6,8,79,8,6,6, *.."l...7,6,7,7 7, 7,8 7,696,69,,77,96,9,,8,8 rl,8,6,6, ,8 rl*. J. pi.9,68 r7,9 p77,76 H, p!,698 r,9 p, pi,8,8 p,8, pi,7 See note on page 8. Graphs of these series are shown on pages and. x See "New Features and Changes for This Issue,' page.

98 9 SEPTEMBER 98 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES E U.S. INTERTIOL TRANSACTIONS Q j MERCHANDISE TRADE Year and month 6. Exports, excluding military aid shipments, total 6. Exports of agricultural products 66. Exports of nonelectrical machinery 6. General imports, total 6. Imports of petroleum and petroleum products 66. Imports of automobiles and parts (Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) 979,6,66,98,,,69,68,8,97 6,8,67,8,8,6,667,96,76,89,979,8,89,,7,88,76,8,,8 6,6 6,89,8,,99,96,8,7,69,77,8,9,9,,,, 6,8 8,77 8,9,69,99,66,8,,89 6,68 6,99 6,7,9,,,,7, 9,7 8,6 9,6 6,, 6,,8,98, ,9 6,98 8,6,,,,97,,,,779,97,6 7,7 6,99,899,,96 8,67 7,67 8,,9,6,8,7,6,9 9,766,87,,8 7,9 6,6,7,999,8 8,67 9,86 8,88,86,7,6,98,,7 9,9 9,7 9,9, 6,8,98,,9,7 9, 8,7 9,,,6,88,7,968,89,7 9,86,6,876 6, 6,,89,, ,8 9,76,,9,977,,8,,,9,9,99 7, 8,8,99,6,7, 9,88 8,869 9,87,6,78,6,,6,88,89,,97 6,99 6,9 6,,,99,7 9,6,89,67 9,87,,8 See note on page 8. Graphs of these series are shown on page 6.

99 SEPTEMBER 98 9 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES E U.S. INTERTIOL TRANSACTIONS Continued Q GOODS AND SERVICES MOVEMENTS (EXCLUDING TRANSFERS UNDER MILITARY GRANTS) Goods and services Merchandise, adjusted ] Income on investments Year and month 667. Balance 668. Exports 669. Imports 6. Balance 68. Exports 6. Imports 6. U.S. investments abroad 6. Foreign investments in the United States (Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) 979, 6, 6,88 -,7,6 6,766,iii 7, 7 68,89 68,88-7,8,8,7,8 7,99, 7,78 7,6-6,97 7,6, 8, 8,7, 79,89 78,8-8,,67,76 8,9 9, ,76 8,98 -,6,898 6,,6, ,67 8,8-6,7,667 6, 6,86, 6,78 86,6 8,77 -,9 6,, 8,8,697,7 88,66 8,9 -,7 7,9 6,79 9,76,7 98 r,79 r9, r89,6 r-,677 r6,98 r6,77 r,66 rl, p,6 p9,8 p9, rp-6,9 rp6,77 rp67,9 p, p!,87 See note on Graphs of these series are shown on page 7. balance of payments basis: Excludes transfers under military grants and Department of Defense sales contracts (exports) and Department of Defense purchases (imports).

100 9 SEPTEMBER 98 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES INTERTIOL COMPARISONS E l INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION Year and month 7. United States, index of industrial production 7. OECD» European countries, index of industrial production 78. Japan, index of industrial production 7. West Germany, index of industrial production 76. France, index of industrial production 7. United Kingdom, index of industrial production 77. Italy, index of industrial production 7 Canada, index of industrial production (967 = ) (967 = ) (967 = ) (967 = ) (967 = ) (967 = ) (967 = ) (967 = ) 979 Revised , pl p pl6 6 p! p! P pl66. p!.8 See note on page 8. Graphs of these series are shown on page 8. Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.

101 SEPTEMBER 98 9 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES F I INTERTIOL COMPARISONS Continued Q CONSUMER PRICES United States Japan West Germany France United (ingdom Year and month Index c. Change over 6-month spans' 78. Index 78c. Change over 6-month spans' 7. Index 7c. Change over 6-month spans ' 76. Index 76c. Change over 6-month spans l 7 Index 7c. Change over 6-month spans' (967 = ) percent) (967 = ) percent) (967-) percent) (967 = ) percent) (967 = ) percent) , , See note on page 8. Graphs of these series are shown on page. Changes over 6-month spans are centered on the th month.

102 96 SEPTEMBER 98 ItCII OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES F I INTERTIOL COMPARISONS Continued Sjj CONSUMER PRICES-Continued Q STOCK PRICES Year and month 77. Italy 77c. Change over 6-month spans * 7 Index Canada 7c. Change over 6-month spans : 9. United States, index of stock prices, common stocks 7. Japan, index of stock prices 7. West Germany, index of stock 76. France, index of stock prices 7. United Kingdom, index of stock prices 77. Italy, index of stock prices 7 Canada, index of stock prices (967 = ) percent) (967 = ) percent) (967 = ) (967 = ) (967 = ) (967 = ) (967 = ) (967 = ) (967 = ) ,9, , , , , , , p!7. pl rp8. p p!8 p!. rpl68.9 pl rp99. P p!.7 rp.6 rp8 p. See note on page 8. Graphs of these series are shown on page. x Changes over 6-month spans are centered on the th month.

103 C. Historical Data for Selected Series Year I J Jar ). Feb. Mar. Apr VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS' VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS' VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS NEW ORDERS, DURABLE (BILLIONS OF b 6 9 NEW ORDERS, NEW BILLIONS ORDERS FOR (BILLIONS b GOODS DOLLARS) DURABLE GOODS OF DOLLARS) CONSUMER Aug. INDUSTRIES INDUSTRIES GOODS AND OF DOLLARS) Sept., IN Oct Nov. CURRENT DOLLARS , IN MATERIALS lb DOLLARS U b IN 97 DOLLARS Dec b y IC II Q III Q IV Q TOTAL FOR PERIOD TOTAL FOR PERIOD TOTAL FOR PERIOD Annual U NOTE: These series contain revisions beginning with 98. (SEPTEMBER 98) 97

104 C. Historical Data for Selected Series Continued Year Jan. i# i. i Feb Mar.. CONTRACTS i i. i. i CONTRACTS CHANGE IN Apr. AND ORDERS FOR PLANT (BILLIONS OF AND ORDERS i. i AND EQUIPMENT DOLLARS) FOR PLANT (BILLIONS MANUFACTURERS AND EQUIPMENT OF DOLLARS) UNFILLED ( (BILLIONS Aug. IN IN Sept. CURRENT iy JRDERS, DURABLE GOODS OF DOLLAI IS) u i. i! Oct DOLLARS b i. i DOLLARS i INDUSTRIES Nov. i b Dec b B9 77 ao IQ MQ I TOTAL TOTAL IV FOR PERIOD FOR PERIOD AVERAGE ? OR PERIOD , Annual series contains revisions beginning with 968. This series contains revisions beginning with 9. beginning with 98. This series contains revisions (SEPTEMBER 98)

105 C. Historical Data for Selected Series Continued Year Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. IQ II Q III Q IV Q Annual. VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS' NEW ORDERS, CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, NONDEFENSE, IN CURRENT BILLIONS OF DOLLARS) I ( DOLLARS TOTAL FOR PERIOD L VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS' NEW ORDERS, CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, NONDEFENSE, Ih (BILLIONS OF DOLLARS) 97 DOLLARS TOTAL FOR PERIOD CHANGE IN STOCKS OF MATERIALS AND SUPPLIES ON HAND AND ON ORDER, MANUFACTURING (BILLIONS OF DOLLARS) AVERAGE FOR J ERIOD 'This series contains revisions beginning with 968. This series contains revisions beginning with 98. (SEPTEMBER 98) 99

106 C. Historical Data for Selected Series Continued Year Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. IQ II Q III Q IV Q Annual CHANGE IN BOOK VALUE OF MANUFACTURING AND TRADE INVENTORIES, TOTAL (ANNUAL RATE, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS) AVERAGE FOR PERIOD , 96' * Y.'o U.. b b NET CHANGE IN INVENTORIES ON HAND AND ON ORDER IN 97 DOLLARS, MONTHLY DATA (ANNUAL RATE, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS) AVERAGE FOR PERIOD b b b b b b bO o.ul -b ' ' b U b b NIET CHANGE IN INVENTORIES ON HAND AND ON ORDER IN 97 DOLLARS, SMOOTHED DATA (ANNUAL RATE, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS) AVERAGE FOR PERIOD b b * C.6 8.8fc.IE U i ; i *.76.! ^>.. 7.8( > ' I fc " C :.8 8." C..o: ] I!. 8.9Z 9.9.fc ".7.".6.' ' 'I C S -.C.S.OS C -9.* T h i s s e r i e s c o n t a i n s r e v i s i o n s b e g i n n i n g w i t h 9 7. T h i s s e r i e s c o n t a i n s r e v i s i o n s b e g i n n i n g w i t h 9 8. m o v i n g a v e r a g e ( w i t h w e i g h t s,,, ) p l a c e d a t t h e t e r m i n a l m o n t h o f t h e s p a n. T h i s s e r i e s i s a w e i g h t e d - t e r m ( S E P T E M B E R 9 8 )

107 C. Historical Data for Selected Series Continued Year ,, I Jan. Feb. 6. MANUFACTURERS STOCKS bo Mar. Apr. INVENTORIES OF b MANUFACTURERS' FINISHED GOODS, BOOK VALUE (BILLIONS OF b DOLLARS) MACHINERY AND EQUIPMENT EXPENDITURES (ANNUAL RATE SALES AND, BILLIONS OF b Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov., ALL MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES b bO BUSINESS CONSTRUCTION DOLLARS) OF MATERIALS AND SUPPLIES ON HAND AND ON ORDER, MANUFACTURING, IN CURRENT DOLLARS (BILLIONS OE b DOLLARS) b Dec b b IQ II Q END b III Q IV Q OF PERIOD AVERAGE FOR END PERIOD OF PERIOD Annual This series contains revisions beginning with 98. This series contains revisions beginning with 968. (SEPTEMBER 98)

108 C. Historical Data for Selected Series Continued Year Jan.,,, 9, 9, 9,,, 7,, 7, 7,, _. I ,,,9,,997,866,69,687,77,87,,,8,666,98 Feb.,,, 9, 9, 9,, 6, 7,, 7, 9,,, Mar ,,,,,76,77,66,79,89,,,,677,9,,, 9, 9,,, 6, 8,, 9, 9, 7,. Apr. MANUFACTURERS ,8,6,9 69,8,78,6,,, 9, 9,,, 6, 9,,, 9, 8, UNFILLED ORDERS Aug. Sept., DEFENSE PRODUCTS (MILLIONS OF DOLLARS) ,,, 9, 9,,, 7, 9,,,,, EMPLOYMENT, I?R I ,, 9, 8,,,, 7, 9,,,, 6, ,,, 8, 9,,, 7, 9,,,, 6, ,, 9, 8, 9,,, 8, 9,,,, 6, ,, 9, 8, 9,,, 8, 9,,,, 67, IN DEFENSE PRODUCTS INDUSTRIES (THOUSANDS) ,6 I , 88. MANUFACTURERS SHIPMENTS,,,99,7,78,88,7,7,9,,9,67,98,9,89,76,,69,6,76,778,97,69,,6,7,8 MILLIONS,6,,,7,6,77,7,8,8,9,,7,66 OF, I I I DEFENSE DOLLARS),7,,,7,6,7,8,88,99,9,,88,6,8,7,969,6,786,98,7,8,9,,6,7, b PRODUCTS,6,,,7,79,87,7,996,7,,,97,9,,,., I l 9 9 bo ,,7,,,78,8,8,8,8,,8,88,6 Oct.,, 9, 8, 9,,, 8,,,,, 67,,, ,8,9,,,76,8,8 7,,6,77,7,96,6 Nov.,, 9, 8, 9,, 6, 8,,, 6,, 67,,,,,,,,,,,,,, ,89,9,9,67,789,8,78,7,,6,6,89,77 Dec.,, 9, 8, 9,, 6, 8,, 7, 7,, 68,,,,,,,, ,77,,9,8,77,79,96,97,7,,797,8,68,,, 9, 9,,, 6, 8,, 9, 9, 7,,,,,,,, Q ,6,,,,7,6,8,668,67,,667,8, I,, 9, 8,,,, 7, 9,,,, 6,,,,, Q I END OF ,, 9, 8, 9,,, 8, 9,,,, 67, AVERAGE ,,,,,,,,,,, Q IV PERIOD FOR ?.? ,, 9, 8, 9,, 6, 8,, 7, 7,, 68, Q PERIOD,,,,,, I b TOTAL FOR PERIOD,8,78,89,,888,9,,6,76,8,76,, ,96,68,8,87,9,68,8,68,67,,69,7, ,,7,89,6,,6,6,99,,88,98,,9 Annual,, 9, 8, 9,, 6, 8,, 7, 7,, 68, ,99 6 * *,,9,7,7,7,,,966,68,6,9,97,7 This series contains revisions beginning with 968. This series contains revisions beginning with 979. (SEPTEMBER 98)

109 C. Historical Data for Selected Series Continued Year Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. IQ II Q III Q IV Q Annual 96. DIFFUSION INDEX OF AVERAGE WORKWEEK OF PRODUCTION WORKERS, MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES (PERCENT RISING OVER -MONTH SPANS) AVERAGE FOR PERIOD I , DIFFUSION INDEX OF AVERAGE WORKWEEK OF PRODUCTION WORKERS, MANUFACTURING-- INDUSTRIES> (PERCENT RISING OVER 9-MONTH SPANS) AVERAGE FOR PERIOD DIFFUSION INDEX OF NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES ON PRIVATE NOGRICULTURAL PAYROLLS--7 (PERCENT RISING OVER -MONTH SPANS) INDUSTRII AVERAGE FOR PERIOD * N O T E : T h e s e s e r i e s c o n t a i n r e v i s i o n s b e g i n n i n g w i t h ( S E P T E M B E R 9 8 ) *

110 C. Historical Data for Selected Series Continued Year Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. IQ II Q IIIQ IV Q Annual 96. DIFFUSION INDEX OF NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES ON PRIVATE NOGRICULTURAL PAYROLLS 7 INDUSTRIES (PERCENT RISING OVER 6-MONTH SPANS) AVERAGE FOR PERIOD ' DIFFUSION INDEX OF VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS NEW ORDERS, DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES (PERCENT RISING OVER -MONTH SPANS) INDUSTRIES AVERAGE FOR PERIOD " * DIFFUSION INDEX DF VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS' NEW ORDERS, DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES f (PERCENT RISING OVER 9-MONTH SPANS) INDUSTRIES AVERAGE FOR PERIOD QOQ CQ C nr "7 Z y bo b J «' Vhis series contains revisions beginning with 976. This series contains revisions beginning with 98. (SEPTEMBER 98) ^

111 G. Experimental Data and Analyses Year and quarter 979 I Q... II Q... Ill Q.. IV Q I Q... II Q... Ill Q.. IV Q I Q... II Q... Ill Q.. IV Q... Implicit price deflator, gross nonfarm business product (Index: 977=) H7.6 Unit labor cost, all persons, nonfarm business sector (Index: 977=) rl. III (D«c.) (Nov.) P T (Nov.) P (Mar.) T TIT TFF NTTTTT]lTl:fjjp pu IU]lll ni Implicit price deflator, business product, Q (index: 977 = ) Components of BCD series 6 Unit labor cost, all persons, nonfarm business sector, Q (index: 977 = ) in (Jan.) () P T Hi Ratio scale , - mm. no 9 8 -J 7 Year and month Inventory-sales ratios in 97 dollars Manufacturing (Ratio) Merchant wholesalers (Ratio) Retail trade (Ratio) Inventory-sales ratios in 97 dollars (ratio)- Manufactunng Arithmetic scale.. 98 Jan... Feb.. Mar.. Apr Aug.. Sept. Oct.. Nov.. Dec Jan... Feb.. Mar.. Apr Aug.. Sept. Oct.. Nov.. Dec rl.98 rl.9 pi rl. pi pi NOTE: The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "", not available. Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

112 6 G. Experimental Data and Analyses Continued Net Contributions of Individual Components to the Leading, Roughly Coincident, and Lagging Composite Indexes Basic data Net contribution to index Series title (and unit of measure) Aug. 98 to 98 to 98 to Aug. 98 LEADING INDICATORS. Average workweek, production workers, manufacturing (hours) Layoff rate, manufacturing (per employees) 8. New orders for consumer goods and materials in 97 dollars (billion dollars) Vendor performance, companies receiving slower deliveries (percent). Net business formation (index: 967=). Contracts and orders for plant and equipment in 97 dollars (billion dollars) 9. New building permits, private housing units (index: 967=) 6. Change in inventories on hand and on order in 97 dol., smoothed (ann. rate,. 9. Change in sensitive crude materials prices, smoothed (percent) 9. Stock prices, common stocks (index: 9-=). Change in total liquid assets, smoothed (percent) 6. Money supply (M) in 97 dollars (billion dollars) 9. Composite index of leading indicators (index: 967=)...9 rll r. rl.79 7 r.6 89 rl ell r r rl... r. 6 rl97 77 pl.88 r. 9. re.8 r86. rl. p. pi. p67 pl e.9 p88. pl U ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS. Employees on nonagricultural payrolls (thousands). Personal income less transfers in 97 dollars (annual rate, billion dollars). 7. Industrial production, total (index: 967=) 7. Manufacturing and trade sales in 97 dollars (million dollars) 9. Composite index of roughly coincident indicators (index: 967=) 9,6 rl,67. rl.7 rl6,6 rl. r9,6 rl,69..9 rl8, rl. 9,966 rl,68. pl7,7 rl.6 p9,7 pi,76 pl.8 pl LAGGING INDICATORS 9. Average duration of unemployment (weeks) 7. Manufacturing and trade inventories, total, in 97 dollars (billion dollars) 6. Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing (index: 967=) 9. Average prime rate charged by banks (percent) 7. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding (million dollars) 9. Ratio, consumer installment credit to personal income (percent) 9 Composite index of 6 lagging indicators (index: 967=) r69 r ,79 rl89.. r6. r ,6 rl9.9 9 p67. r9..9 rl8,8 pl rl9. p.. pl86, pl NOTE: The net contribution of an individual component is that component's share in the composite movement of the group. It is computed by dividing the standardized and weighted change for the component by the sum of the weights for the available components and dividing that result by the index standardization factor. See the 979 BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST (pp. 6-7) for weights and standardization factors., not available, p, preliminary, r, revised, e, estimated. x This series is inverted in computing the composite index; i.e., a decrease in this series is considered an upward movement. This series is a weighted -term moving average (with weights,,,) placed at the terminal month of the span. Figures in the net contribution columns are percent changes in the index. The percent change is equal (except for rounding differences) to the sum of the individual components' contributions plus the trend adjustment factor. The trend adjustment factor for the leading index is.99; for the coincident index, -.6; for the lagging index, -.7.

113 Experimental Data and Analyses Continued Cyclical Comparisons: Current and Selected Historical Patterns I M I M M I M M «"ii imi ii Actual Layoff rate, manufacturing (inverted) ull data.. MONTHS FROM REF. TROUGH CURRENT MONTH ACTUAL AND DATA YEAR SERIES PER EMPLOYEES /8 8/8 9/8 /8 /8 /8 /8 /8 /8 /8 /8 6/8 7/8 8/8 MONTHS FROM SPEC. TROUGH DEVI- ATIONS FROM /8 CURRENT ACTUAL DATA MONTH AND YEAR I ""!! ""!"! Layoff rate, manufacturing (inverted) oil Deviations from specific troughs Actual Actual data for current cycle n.o.. Average weekly initial claims, State unemployment insurance (inverted) -* Deviations from reference peaks Percent Actual data for current cycle MONTHS FROM REF. TROUGH MONTHS FROM SPEC. TROUGH SERIES PER EMPLOYEES. T DEVI- ATIONS FROM / CURRENT ACTUAL DATA SERIES THOUSANDS DEVI- ATIONS FROM / CURRENT ACTUAL DATA /8 6/8 7/8 8/8 9/8 /8 /8 /8 /8 /8 /8 /8 /8 6/8 7/8 8/8 MONTH AND YEAR 7/8 8/8 9/8 /8 /8 /8 /8 /8 /8 /8 /8 6/8 7/8 8/8 MONTH AND YEAR. Average weekly initial claims, State unemployment insurance (inverted) I I M I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I SERIES THOUSANDS. T 6. / /8 7/8 8/8 9/8 /8 /8 /8 /8 /8 /8 /8 /8 6/8 7/8 8/8 i i I i i i i i i i i i I i i i i i I i i i i i I i i i i i I Months from reference troughs Months from specific troughs NOTE: For an explanation of these charts, see "How to Read Charts" on p. 6 of the 98 7

114 8 G. Experimental Data and Analyses Continued Cyclical Comparisons: Current and Selected Historical Patterns Continued ' '"" '""M"" '"" '"" MI T T. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment 97 dollars, smoothed * Deviations from reference peaks Actual data for current cycle MONTHS FROM REF. TROUGH DEVI- ATIONS FROM /8 CURRENT ACTUAL DATA SERIES BIL. DOL -. MONTH AND YEAR 7/8 I I I I I I I I I I I I I I.. I... j «..... T. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment 97 dollars, smoothed I L.L.L I Deviations from specific troughs Actual data for current cycle /8 9/8 /8 /8 Percent Percent MONTHS FROM SPEC. TROUGH DEVI- ATIONS FROM / CURRENT ACTUAL DATA /8 /8 /8 /8 /8 /8 6/8 7/8 MONTH AND YEAR /7* + # MONTHS FROM REF. TROUGH SERIES * BIL. DOL.. T DEVI- ATIONS FROM / CURRENT ACTUAL DATA /8 6/8 7/8 8/8 9/8 /8 /8 /8 /8 /8 /8 /8 /8 6/8 7/8 MONTH AND YEAR / M. Employees in goods-producing industries I Percent - - 6,,, MONTHS FROM SPEC. TROUGH SERIES THOUSAND'S DEVI- ATIONS FROM 7/ CURRENT ACTUAL DATA 7/8 8/8 9/8 /8 /8 /8 /8 /8 /8 /8 /8 6/8 7/8 8/8 MONTH AND YEAR. Employees in goods-producing industries I L,C,U I Percent >8, 7, 7, ,,, SERIES THOUSANDS /8 8/8 9/8 /8 69 / /8 /8 /8 /8 /8 /8 6/8 7/ , 6,, /8 nnlninl I IMM.IIMMI, Months from reference troughs Months from specific troughs NOTE: For an explanation of these charts, see "How to Read Charts" on p. 6 of the 98 issue. "This series is an MCD moving average placed on the center month of the span. Specific trough dates used, however, are those for the actual monthly series. a Numeral indicates latest month used in computing the series.

115 Experimental Data and Analyses Continued Cyclical Comparisons: Current and Selected Historical Patterns Continued 6. Money sup [IXI] \ 98 V I I I Deviations I Actual data ly (M), 97 dollars from for reference current D peaks cycle J f / "V A. n Percent n u MONTHS FROM REF. TROUGH MONTHS FROM SPEC. TROUGH DEVI- ATIONS FROM /8 CURRENT MONTH ACTUAL AND DATA YEAR SERIES 6 BIL. DOL DEVI- ATIONS FROM / CURRENT ACTUAL DATA 7/8 8/8 9/8 /8 /8 /8 /8 /8 /8 /8 /8 6/8 7/8 8/8 MONTH AND YEAR SERIES 6 BIL. DOL. T /8 /8 6/8 7/8 8/8 9/8. 8. /8. 8 / / /8 /8 /8 /8 /8 6/ / /8 T I ilo6. Money supply (M), full W /8 of v\ %\ I \....MM, A #: Jf v/ 97 dollars r If i / /7 / / / / /8 D Deviations from specific troughs Percent n Actual data for current cycle Ratio, personal income to money supply (M lclg,c D Actual data. MONTHS FROM REF. TROUGH CURRENT MONTH ACTUAL AND DATA YEAR SERIES 8 RATIO.9 7/8 IO8. Ratio, f supply C.Lg.C )ersonal (M) income to money Actual 97 K 98 \ - *U^-K-^ NL^-/* 8^ 9,.. Mil. MM! I I I I jr/ l MONTHS FROM SPEC. TROUGH /8 9/8 /8 /8 /8 /8 /8 /8 /8 /8 6/8 7/8.7 8/ DEVI- ATIONS FROM 8/8 CURRENT ACTUAL DATA SERIES 8 RATIO. T MONTH AND YEAR 8/8 9/8 /8 /8 /8 /8 /8 /8 /8 /8 6/8 7/8 8/8 / V A/% w / ^ / 8/8 to* Vv null i i i i i II III! M M M \ V i xj \J ir Vledian \ *^ / r\ 6/8 A \ \/ \w /7 -, nn uu Months from reference troughs Months from specific troughs NOTE: For an explanation of these charts, see "How to Read Charts" on p. 6 of the 98 issue. 9

116 ALPHABETICAL INDEX-SERIES FINDING GUIDE Series titles (See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of Series," following this index) Series number Current issue (page numbers) Tables Historical Series data lescriptions issue date! (*) Series titles (See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of Series," following this index) Series number Current issue (page numbers) Charts Tables Historical Ser-ies data descriptions (issue date) (*) Accession rate, manufacturing Agricultural products, exports Anticipations and intentions Business expenditures, new plant and equipment... Business expenditures, new plant and equipment, Dl Consumer sentiment, index Employees, manufacturing and trade, Dl Inventories, manufacturing and trade, Dl New orders, manufacturing, Dl Prices, selling, manufacturing, Dl Prices, selling, retail trade, Dl Prices, selling, wholesale trade, Dl Profits, net, manufacturing and trade, Dl Sales, net, manufacturing and trade, Dl Automobiles Expenditures, personal consumption Imports of automobiles and parts Balance of payments-see International transactions. Bank loans to businesses, loans outstanding Bank loans to businesses, net change Bank rates-see Interest rates. Bank reserves Free reserves Member bank borrowing from Federal Reserve Bonds See Interest rates. Borrowing-See Credit. Budget-See Government. Building-See Construction. Building permits, new private housing Business equipment, industrial production Business expenditures, new plant and equipment Business expenditures, new plant and equipment, DI. Business failures, current liabilities Business formation Business incorporations Business inventories-see Inventories. Business loans-see Bank loans. Business saving B Canada See International comparisons. Capacity utilization Manufacturing (BEA) Manufacturing (FRB) Materials Capital appropriations, manufacturing Backlog Newly approved Newly approved, Dl Capital investment-see Investment, capital. Capital investment commitments, Cl Cash flow, corporate, constant dollars Cash flow, corporate, current dollars Civilian labor force-see also Employment. Employment Employment as percent of population Total Unemployed Coincident indicators, four Composite index Composite index, rate of change Diffusion index Ratio to lagging indicators, composite index Commercial and industrial buildings, contracts awarded.. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding Commercial and industrial loans outstanding, net change. Compensation Compensation, average hourly, all employees, nonfarm business sector Compensation, average hourly, all employees, nonfarm business sector, percent changes Compensation of employees Compensation of employees, percent of national income Compensation, real average hourly, all employees, nonfarm business sector Compensation, real average hourly, all employees, nonfarm business sector, percent changes Earnings, average hourly, production workers, private nonfarm economy Earnings, average hourly, production workers, private nonfarm economy, percent changes Earnings, real average hourly, production workers, private nonfarm economy Earnings, real average hourly, production workers, private nonfarm economy, percent changes Wage and benefit decisions, first year Wage and benefit decisions, life of contract Wages and salaries, mining, manufacturing, and construction c c c c c ,, 8, , 9 6, 9, ,89 6 7*' , /8 8/8 /8 /8 8/8 /8 /8 /8 /8 /8 /8 /8 /8 /8 8/8 /8 /8 9/8 9/8 7/8 7/8 /8 /8 /8 /8 /8 /8 8/8 8/8 8/8 /8 /8 /8 9/8 /8 /8 /8 /8 /8 /8 /8 /8 /8 9/8 /8 /8 /8 /8 /8 /8 /8 /8 /8 /8 /8 /8 /8 8/8 8/ /8 Composite indexes Coincident indicators Four coinciders Four coinciders, rate of change Ratio to lagging indicator index Lagging indicators Six laggers Six laggers, rate of change Leading indicators Capital investment commitments Inventory investment and purchasing Marginal employment adjustments Money and financial flows Profitability Twelve leaders Twelve leaders, rate of change Construction Building permits, new private housing Contracts awarded, commercial and industrial bldgs.. Expenditures, plus machinery and equipment sales... Gross private domestic fixed investment Nonresidential, as percent of GNP Nonresidential structures, constant dollars Nonresidential, total, constant dollars Residential as percent of GNP Residential, total, constant dollars Housing starts Consumer finished goods-see Wholesale prices. Consumer goods and materials, new orders Consumer goods, industrial production Consumer installment debt Debt outstanding Net change Ratio to personal income Consumer installment loans, delinquency rate Consumer prices-see also International comparisons. All items, index All items, percent changes Food,index Food,percent changes Consumer sentiment, index Consumption expenditures-see Personal consumption expenditures. Contracts and orders, plant and equipment, constant dol. Contracts and orders, plant and equipment, current dol.. Corporate bond yields Corporate profits-see Profits. Costs-See Labor costs and Price indexes. Credit Bank loans to businesses, net change Borrowing, total private Commercial and industrial loans outstanding Consumer installment debt Debt outstanding Net change Ratio to personal income Consumer installment loans, delinquency rate Mortgage debt, net change Crude materials-see Wholesale prices. Debt-See Credit. Defense Military prime contract awards National defense purchases New orders, defense products Obligations incurred Deficit-See Government. Deflators-See Price indexes. Delinquency rate, consumer installment loans Deliveries, vendor performance Diffusion indexes Business expenditures, new plant and equipment Capital appropriations, manufacturing Coincident indicators Employees, manufacturing and trade Employees on private nonagricultural payrolls Industrial materials prices Industrial materials prices, components Industrial production Industrial production, components Initial claims, State unemployment insurance Inventories, manufacturing and trade Lagging indicators Leading indicators New orders, durable goods industries New orders, durable goods industries, components... New orders, manufacturing Prices, common stocks Prices, selling, manufacturing Prices, selling, retail trade Prices, selling, wholesale trade Profits, manufacturing Profits, net, manufacturing and trade Sales, net, manufacturing and trade Workweek, mfg. production workers Workweek, mfg. production workers, components... Disposable personal income-see Income. 9 9c 9 9 9c c c c , 7 7,, 9 9, 9 9,,,, ,9 8, /8 /8 9/8 /8 /8 9/8 9/8 9/8 9/8 9/8 /8 /8 7/8 /8 9/8 /8 /8 /8 /8 /8 /8 9/8 7/8 /8 /8 6/8 /8 /8 /8 /8 /8 8/8 9/8 9/8 /8 /8 /8 /8 /8 /8 6/8 /8 7/8 /8 /8 8/8 /8 /8 /8 /8 /8 /8 /8 9/8 /8 /8 "/8 /8 /8 /8 9/8 /8 /8 /8 /8 /8 8/8 /8 /8 9/ NOTE: CI, composite index; Dl, diffusion index; GPDI, gross private domestic investment; NIPA, national income and product accounts. *The'number shown indicates the page on which the series description appears in the HANDBOOK OF CYCLICAL INDICATORS (977).

117 ALPHABETICAL INDEX-SERIES FINDING GUIDE-Continued Series titles (See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of Series," following this index) Series number Current issue (page numbers) Historical Series data lescriptions [issue date] (*) Series titles (See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of Series," following this index) Series number Current issue (page numbers) Historical Series data descriptions (issue date] (*) Earnings See Compensation. Employment and unemployment Accession rate, manufacturing Civilian labor force, total Employee hours in nonagricultural establishments Employee hours in nonagricultural establishments, rate of change Employees in mining, mfg., and construction Employees, manufacturing and trade, Dl Employees on nonagricultural payrolls Employees on private nonag. payrolls, Dl Employment, ratio to population Employment, total civilian Help-wanted advertising in newspapers Help-wanted advertising, ratio to unemployment Initial claims. State unemployment insurance Initial claims, State unemployment insurance, Dl Layoff rate, manufacturing Marginal employment adjustments, Cl Overtime hours, mfg. production workers Participation rate, both sexes, 6-9 years old Participation rate, females years and over Participation rate, males years and over Part-time workers for economic reasons Persons engaged in nonagricultural activities Quit rate, manufacturing Unemployed, both sexes, 6-9 years old Unemployed, females years and over Unemployed, full-time workers Unemployed, males years and over Unemployment, average duration Unemployment rate, weeks and over Unemployment rate, insured, average weekly Unemployment rate, total Unemployment, total civilian Workweek, mfg. production workers Workweek, mfg. production workers, components Workweek, mfg. production workers, Dl Equipment-See Investment, capital. Exports-See Foreign trade and International transactions. Federal funds rate Federal Government-See Government. Federal Reserve, member bank borrowing from Final sales in constant dollars Financial flows, and money, Cl Fixed investment See Investment, capital. Fixed weighted price index, NIPA Fixed weighted price index, percent changes, NIPA Food-See Consumer prices. Foreign trade-see also International transactions. Balance on goods and services Balance on merchandise trade Exports, merchandise, adjusted, exc. military Exports, merchandise, total exc. military aid Exports of agricultural products Exports of goods and services, constant dol., NIPA... Exports of goods and services, current dol., NIPA Exports of goods and services, exc. military Exports of nonelectrical machinery Imports, merchandise, adjusted, exc. military Imports, merchandise, total Imports of automobiles and parts Imports of goods and services, constant dol., NIPA Imports of goods and services, current dol., NIPA Imports of goods and services, total Imports of petroleum and products Net exports, goods and services, constant dol., NIPA Net exports, goods and services, current dol., NIPA... Net exports, goods and services, percent of GNP, NIPA France-See International comparisons. Free reserves Goods output in constant dollars Government budget, NIPA Federal expenditures Federal receipts Federal surplus or deficit State and local expenditures State and local receipts State and local surplus or deficit Surplus or deficit, total Government purchases of goods and services Federal, constant dollars Federal, current dollars Federal, percent of GNP National defense State and local, constant dollars State and local, current dollars State and local, percent of GNP Total, constant dollars Total, current dollars c c , , , ,,6 6" , /8 /8 8/8 /8 8/8 /8 8/8 9/8 /8 /8 /8 /8 7/8 /8 8/8 9/8 8/8 /8 /8 /8 /8 /8 8/8 /8 /8 /8 /8 /8 /8 /8 /8 /8 8/8 9/8 /8 9/8 /8 9/8 /8 /8 8/8 /8 8/8 8/8 8/8 /8 /8 8/8 8/8 8/8 8/8 8/8 /8 /8 8/8 8/8 /8 /8 /8 9/8 /8 /8 /8 /8 /8 /8 /8 /8 /8 /8 /8 /8 /8 /8 /8 /8 / Gross business product Fixed weighted price index Fixed weighted price index, percent changes Gross domestic product, labor cost per unit Gross national product GNP, constant dollars GNP, constant dollars, differences GNP, constant dollars, percent changes GNP, current dollars GNP, current dollars, differences GNP, current dollars, percent changes GNP, ratio to money supply Goods output in constant dollars Implicit price deflator Implicit price deflator, percent changes Per capita GNP, constant dollars Gross private domestic invest.-see Investment, capital. Help-wanted advertising in newspapers Help-wanted advertising, ratio to unemployment Hours of production workers, manufacturing Average weekly overtime Average workweek Average workweek, components Average workweek, DI Housing Housing starts Housing units authorized by local bldg. permits Residential GPDI, constant dollars Residential GPDI, percent of GNP H I Implicit price deflator, GNP Implicit price deflator, GNP, percent changes Imports-See Foreign trade and International transactions. Income Compensation, average hourly, all employees, nonfarm business sector Compensation, average hourly, all employees, nonfarm business sector, percent changes Compensation of employees Compensation of employees, pet. of nat'l. income... Compensation, real average hourly, all employees, nonfarm business sector Compensation, real average hourly, all employees, nonfarm business sector, percent changes Consumer installment debt, ratio to personal income.. Corporate profits with IVA and CCA Corp. profits with IVA and CCA, pet. of nat'l. income. Disposable personal income, constant dollars Disposable personal income, current dollars Disposable personal income, per capita, constant dol... Earnings, average hourly, production workers, private nonfarm economy Earnings, average hourly, production workers, private nonfarm economy, percent changes Earnings, real average hourly, production workers, private nonfarm economy Earnings, real average hourly, production workers, private nonfarm economy, percent changes. Income on foreign investment in the U.S Income on U.S. investments abroad Interest, net Interest, net, percent of national income National income Personal income, constant dollars Personal income, current dollars Personal income, less transfers, constant dollars Personal income, less transfers, constant dols. rate of chg. Personal income, ratio to money supply Proprietors' income with IVA and CCA Proprietors' income with IVA and CCA, percent of national income Rental income of persons with CCA Rental income of persons with CCA, pet. of nat'l. income Wage and benefit decisions, first year Wage and benefit decisions, life of contract Wages and salaries, mining, mfg., and construction Incorporations, new businesses Industrial materials prices Industrial materials prices, components Industrial materials prices, Dl Industrial production - See also International comparisons. Business equipment Consumer goods Durable manufactures Nondurable manufactures Total Total, components Total, Dl Total, rate of change Installment debt-see Credit. Insured unemployment Avg. weekly initial claims, unemploy. insurance Avg. weekly initial claims, unemploy. insurance, Dl... Avg. weekly insured unemployment rate c b c b c 7 9 c c c c c c c c 96 9, ,6 6*', 7 9,7 9, , *',, , , * , /8 /8 /8 /8 /8 /8 /8 /8 /8 8/8 /8 /8 /8 8/8 /8 /8 8/8 8/8 9/8 /8 7/8 /8 /8 /8 /8 /8 /8 /8 /8 /8 /8 6/8 /8 /8 /8 /8 8/8 /8 /8 /8 /8 8/8 8/8 /8 /8 /8 6/8 6/8 6/8 /8 8/8 /8 /8 /8 /8 8/8 8/8 6/8 /8 /8 /8 7/8 7/8 7/8 7/8 7/8 /8 7/8 7/8 /8 / ' * NOTE: Cl, composite index; Dl, diffusion index; GPDI, gross private domestic investment; NIPA, national income and product accounts. *The number shown indicates the page on which the series description appears in the HANDBOOK OF CYCLICAL INDICATORS (977).

118 ALPHABETICAL INDEX-SERIES FINDING GUIDE-Continued Series titles (See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of Series," following this index) Series number Current issue (page numbers) Charts Historical Series data descriptions issue date) (*) Series titles e complete titles in "Titles and Sources of Series," following this index) Series number Current issue (page numbers) Tables Historical Series data descriptions (issue date) (*) Interest, net Interest, net, percent of national income Interest rates Bank rates on short-term business loans Corporate bond yields Federal funds rate Mortgage yields, secondary market Municipal bond yields Prime rate charged by banks Treasury bill rate Treasury bond yields Intermediate materials-see Wholesale prices. International comparisons Consumer prices Canada, index Canada, percent changes France, index France, percent changes Italy, index Italy, percent changes Japan,index Japan,percent changes United Kingdom, index United Kingdom, percent changes United States, index United States, percent changes West Germany, index West Germany, percent changes Industrial production Canada France Italy Japan OECD, European countries United Kingdom United States West Germany Stock prices Canada France Italy Japan United Kingdom United States West Germany International transactions-see also Foreign trade. Balance on goods and services Balance on merchandise trade Exports, merchandise, adjusted, exc. military Exports, merchandise, total exc. military aid Exports of agricultural products Exports of goods and services, exc. military Exports of nonelectrical machinery Imports, merchandise, adjusted, exc. military Imports, merchandise, total Imports of automobiles and parts I mports of goods and services, total Imports of petroleum and products Income on foreign investments in U.S Income on U.S. investments abroad Inventories Business inventories, change, constant dollars Business inventories, change, current dollars Business inventories, change, percent of GNP Finished goods, manufacturers' Inventories on hand and on order, net change Inventories to sales ratio, mfg. and trade (deflated) Inventory investment and purchasing, Cl Manufacturing and trade, constant dollars Manufacturing and trade, current dollars Manufacturing and trade, current dollars, change Manufacturing and trade, Dl Materials and supplies on hand and on order, mfg Materials and supplies on hand and on order, mfg., change Investment, capital Capital appropriations, manufacturing, backlog Capital appropriations, manufacturing, new Capital appropriations, manufacturing, new, Dl Capital investment commitments, Cl Construction contracts, commercial and industrial Construction expenditures, business and machinery and equipment sales Gross private domestic investment Fixed investment, constant dollars Fixed investment, current dollars Inventories, business, change in-see Inventories. Nonresidential, total constant dollars Nonresidential, total, percent of GNP Producers' durable equip., nonresid., constant dol. Residential, total, constant dollars Residential, total, percent of GNP Structures, nonresidential, constant dollars Total, constant dollars Total, current dollars New orders, capital goods, nondefense, constant dollars New orders, capital goods, nondefense, current dollars c 76 76c 77 77c 78 78c 7 7c c 7 7c *" *' " 9 9, " ,, , 7 7,6 7, ,9 8, , , /8 /8 8/8 /8 /8 /8 /8 /8 /8 /8 /8 /8 /8 /8 /8 /8 /8 /8 /8 /8 /8 /8 /8 /8 /8 /8 /8 /8 /8 /8 7/8 /8 7/8 7/8 7/8 7/8 7/8 6/79 7/8 8/8 8/8 8/8 8/8 8/8 8/8 8/8 8/8 8/8 8/8 8/8 8/8 /8 /8 /8 9/8 9/8 /8 9/8 /79 /79 9/8 /8 9/8 9/8 /8 /8 /8 9/8 /8 9/8 /8 /8 /8 /8 /8 /8 /8 /8 /8 /8 9/8 9/ Plant and equipment Business expenditures, new Business expenditures, new, Dl Contracts and orders, constant dollars. Contracts and orders, current dollars.. Investment, foreign Income on foreign investments in U.S... Income on U.S. investments abroad Italy-See International comparisons. Japan See International comparisons. Labor cost per unit of gross domestic product Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing Labor cost per unit of output, private business sector... Labor cost, price per unit of, nonfarm business Labor force-see Employment and unemployment. Lagging indicators, six Composite index Composite index, rate of change Diffusion index Layoff rate, manufacturing Leading indicators, twelve Composite index Composite index, rate of change Diffusion index Liabilities of business failures Liquid assets, change in total Loans-See Credit. Man-hours-See Employment and unemployment. Marginal employment adjustments, Cl Materials and supplies on hand and on order, mfg Materials and supplies on hand and on order, mfg. change Materials, crude and intermediate See Wholesale prices. Materials, industrial-see Price indexes. Materials, new orders for consumer goods and Materials, rate of capacity utilization Merchandise trade-see Foreign trade. Military-See Defense. Money and financial flows, Cl Money supply Liquid assets, change in total Money supply M Money supply M, percent changes Money supply M Money supply M, percent changes Ratio, GNP to money supply Ml Ratio personal income to money supply M Mortgage debt, net change Mortage yields secondary market Municipal bond yields M National defense-see Defense. National Government See Government. National income-see Income. New orders, manufacturers' Capital goods industries, nondefense, constant dol... Capital goods industries, nondefense, current dol... Consumer goods and materials, constant dollars Contracts and orders, plant and equip., constant dol. Contracts and orders, plant and equip., current dol.. Defense products Durable goods industries, constant dollars Durable goods industries, current dollars Components Diffusion index New orders, manufacturing, Dl Nonresidential fixed investment, GPDI Producers' durable equipment, constant dollars Structures, constant dollars Total, constant dollars Total, percent of GNP Obligations incurred, Defense Department OECD, European countries, industrial production... Orders-See New orders and Unfilled orders. Output-See also Gross national product and Industrial production. Goods output, constant dollars Labor cost per unit of Per hour, nonfarm business sector Per hour, private business sector Per hour, private business sector, percent changes. Ratio to capacity, manufacturing (BEA) Ratio to capacity, manufacturing (FRB) Ratio to capacity, materials Overtime hours, production workers, manufacturing N c 9 9 9c c , 7 7, 9 9 6,6 9 6, 6,,,,,, /8 /8 9/8 9/8 8/8 8/8 /8 6/8 7/8 7/8 /8 /8 /8 8/8 /8 /8 /8 /8 8/8 9/8 9/8 9/8 9/8 8/8 9/8 8/8 8/8 8/8 8/8 8/8 8/8 8/8 7/8 /8 /8 9/8 9/8 9/8 9/8 9/8 8/8 9/8 9/8 9/8 /8 /8 /8 /8 /8 /8 /8 /8 6/8 8/8 8/8 8/8 8/ NOTE: Cl, composite index; Dl, diffusion index; GPDI, gross private domestic investment; NIPA, national income and product accounts. *The number shown indicates the page on which the series description appears in the HANDBOOK OF CYCLICAL INDICATORS (977).

119 ALPHABETICAL INDEX-SERIES FINDING GUIDE-Continued Series titles (See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of Series," following this index) Series number Current issue (page numbers) Charts Tables Historical Series data descriptions (issue date) (*) Series titles (See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of Series," following this index) Series number Current issue (page numbers) Charts Tables Historical Series data descriptions (issue date) (*) p Participation rates, civilian labor force Both sexes 6-9 years of age Females years and over Males years and over Personal consumption expenditures Automobiles Durable goods, constant dollars Durable goods, current dollars Nondurable goods constant dollars Nondurable goods, current dollars Services constant dollars ^\pr\/irp9 rurrpnt rinllar^ Oot VIljCO, LfUlldll UUMQIO Total, constant dollars Total, current dollars Total percent of G NP Personal income-see Income. Personal saving Personal saving rate Petroleum and products, imports Plant and equipment-see also Investment, capital. Business expenditures for Rii^inp^^ py npnriitiip's fnr f)! UUOlMCuO UA JCI IU IIUC-J IUI, LJI., Contracts and orders for, constant dollars Contracts and orders for, current dollars Population, civilian employment as percent of ^rjpp inhpyp"? (IOC lllucaco Consumer prices-see also International comparisons. All items, index All items, percent changes Food,index Food, percent changes Deflators NIPA Fixed weighted, gross business product, index Fixed weighted, gross business product, pet. changes Implicit price deflator, GNP, index Implicit price deflator, GNP, percent changes Industrial materials Industrial materials, components Industrial materials Dl Labor cost, price per unit of Sensitive prices, change in Stock prices-see also International comparisons. common stocks common stocks Dl Wholesale prices All commodities index AH commodities percent change Consumer finished goods, index Consumer finished goods, percent changes Crude materials, index Crude materials, percent changes Intermediate materials index.... Intermediate materials, percent changes Producer finished goods index Producer finished goods, percent changes Price to unit labor cost, nonfarm business Prices, selling Manufacturing, Dl Retail trade Dl Wholesale trade, DI Prime contracts, military Prime rate charged by banks Producer finished goods-see Wholesale prices. Producers' durable equipment, nonresid.tgpdi Production-See Industrial production and GNP. Productivity Output per hour, nonfarm business" sector Output per hour private business sector Output per hour, private business sector, pet. changes. Profitability, Cl Profits Corporate, after taxes, constant dollars Corporate, after taxes, current dollars Corporate, after taxes, with IVA and CCA, constant dollar Corporate, after taxes, with IVA and CCA, cur. dol.... Corporate with IVA and CCA Corporate, with IVA and CCA, pet. of nat'l. income... Manufacturing and trade, Dl Manufacturing Dl Per dollar of sales, manufacturing Profitability, Cl Ratio, profits to corporate domestic income Ratio, profits with IVA and CCA to corporate domestic income Proprietors' income with IVA and CCA Proprietors' income with IVA and CCA, pet. of nat'l. inc.. Quit rate, manufacturing Q Rental income of persons with CCA Rental income of persons, with CCA, percent of national income c c c c c c c c c c , 8 9 9, ,8, ,9 8, /8 /8 /8 /8 /8 /8 /8 /8 /8 /8 /8 /8 /8 /8 /8 8/8 /8 /8 9/8 9/8 /8 /8 /8 /8 /8 /8 /8 /8 /8 /8 /8 7/8 /8 /8 /8 6/8 6/8 6/8 6/8 6/8 6/8 6/8 6/8 6/8 6/8 7/8 /8 /8 /8 /8 /8 /8 9/8 /8 /8 /8 /8 /8 /8 /8 8/8 7/8 9/8 /8 /8 /8 /8 8/8 /8 / " * Reserves free... Residential fixed investment, constant dollars, GPDI... Residential fixed investment, percent of GNP Residential structures-see Housing. Retail sales, constant dollars Retail sales, current dollars s Salaries-See Compensation. Sales Final sales constant dollars... Machinery and equipment sales and business construction expenditures Manufacturing and trade sales, constant dollars Manufacturing and trade sales, current dollars Manufacturing and trade sales, Dl Ratio, inventories to sales, mfg. and trade Retail sales, constant dollars Retail sales, current dollars Saving Business saving Government surplus or deficit Gross saving, private and government Personal saving Personal saving rate Selling prices-see Prices, selling. Sensitive prices, change in State and local government-see Government. Stock prices-see also International comparisons. common stocks common stocks, Dl Stocks of materials and supplies on hand and on order... Stocks of materials and supplies on hand and on order, change Surplus-See Government. Treasury bill rate Treasury bond yields T U Unemployment Duration of unemployment, average Help-wanted advertising to unemployment, ratio Initial claims, avg. weekly, unemploy. insurance Initial claims, avg. weekly, unemploy. insurance, Dl... Layoff rate, manufacturing Number unemployed, civilian labor force Both sexes, 6-9 years of age Females, years and over Full-time workers Males, years and over Total unemployed Quit rate, manufacturing Unemployment rates weeks and over Insured, average weekly Total Unfilled orders, manufacturers' Durable goods industries Durable goods industries, change in United Kingdom-See International comparisons. Velocity of money GNP to money supply M, ratio Personal income to money supply M, ratio Vendor performance V W Wages and salaries-see Compensation. West Germany-See International comparisons. Wholesale prices All commodities, index All commodities, percent changes Consumer finished goods, index Consumer finished goods, percent changes Crude materials, index Crude materials, percent changes Intermediate materials, index Intermediate materials, percent changes Producer finished goods, index Producer finished goods, percent changes Sensitive prices change in Workweek of production workers, manufacturing Workweek of production workers, manufacturing, components Workweek of production workers, manufacturing, Dl c c c c c , ,8, , ,6 8, ,,8,6 6*' , /89 /8 /8 6/8 6/8 /8 9/8 /8 /8 /8 /8 6/8 6/8 /8 /8 /8 /8 /8 /8 /8 /8 9/8 9/8 /8 /8 /8 /8 7/8 /8 8/8 /8 /8 /8 /8 /8 8/8 /8 /8 /8 8/8 9/8 8/8 8/8 /8 6/8 6/8 6/8 6/8 6/8 6/8 6/8 6/8 6/8 6/8 /8 8/8 9/ " NOTE: Cl, composite index; Dl, diffusion index; GPDI, gross private domestic investment; NIPA, national income and product accounts. *The number shown indicates the page on which the series description appears in the HANDBOOK OF CYCLICAL INDICATORS (977).

120 TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES Series are listed below according to the sections of this report in which they appear. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect relationships or order among the series. "M" following a series title indicates monthly data; "Q" indicates quarterly data. Data apply to the whole period except when indicated by "EOM" (end of month) or "EOQ" (end of quarter). To save space, the commonly used sources listed below are referred to by number: Source U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis; Source U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census; Source U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; Source Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Following the source for each series is an indication of the pages on which that series appears. The "Series Finding Guide" also lists chart and table page numbers for each series. I-A. Composite Indexes 9. Composite index of twelve leading indicators (includes series,, 8,, 9,, 9,, 6, 9,, 6) (M).-Source (,9,6) 9 Composite index of marginal employment adjustments (includes series,,, ) (M).-Source (,6) 9. Composite index of capital investment commitments (includes series,, 9) (M).-Source (,6) 9. Composite index of inventory investment and purchasing (includes series 8,, 6, 9) (M).-Source (H6) 96. Composite index of profitability (includes series 9, 6, 8) (M).-Source (,6) 97. Composite index of money and financial flows (includes series, 6, ) (M).-Source (,6) 9. Composite index of four roughly coincident indicators (includes series, 7,, 7) (M).-Source (,9,6) 9 Composite index of six lagging indicators (includes series 6, 7, 7, 9, 9, 9) (M).-Source (,9,6) 9. Ratio, coincident composite index (series 9) to lagging composite index (series 9) (M). Source (6) -B. Cyclical Indicators. Average workweek of production workers, manufacturing (M).-Source (,6,6,77). Accession rate, manufacturing (M).-Source (6,6) Layoff rate, manufacturing (M).-Source (,6,6). Quit rate, manufacturing (M).-Source (6,6). Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance, State programs (M).-U.S. Department of Labor, Employment and Training Administration; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (6,6) 6. Value of manufacturers' new orders, durable goods industries, in current dollars (M). Source (,6,77) 7. Value of manufacturers' new orders, durable goods industries, in 97 dollars (M).-Sources,, and (,6) 8. Value of manufacturers' new orders for consumer goods and materials in 97 dollars (M).-Sources,, and (,,6) 9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial buildings, floor space (M). McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced without written permission from the source.) (,66). Contracts and orders for plant and equipment in current dollars (M). Source and McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and Bureau of Economic Analysis (,66). Newly approved capital appropriations,, manufacturing corporations (Q). The Conference Board (,66). Index of net business formation (M).-Source ; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. (,,6) Number of new business incorporations (M).-Dun & Bradstreet, Inc.; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. (,6). Current liabilities of business failures (M).-Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (,7). Profits (after taxes) per dollar of sales, all manufacturing corporations (Q). Federal Trade Commission and Securities and Exchange Commission; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (9,7) 6. Corporate profits after taxes in current dollars (Q).~ Source (8,69) 8. Corporate profits after taxes in 97 dollars (Q).- Source (8,69) 9. Index of stock prices, common stocks (M).- Standard & Poor's Corporation (,8,,69,96). Contracts and orders for plant and equipment in 97 dollars (M).-Sources,,, and McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company (,,66). Average weekly overtime hours of production workers, manufacturing (M).-Source (6,6). Ratio of profits (after taxes) to total corporate domestic income (Q).-Source (9,69) Index of spot market prices, raw industrial materials (M).-Source (8,69,79). Value of manufacturer's new orders, capital goods industries, nondefense, in current dollars (M).-Source (,66). Change in manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries (M).-Source (,6) 6. Ratio, implicit price deflator to unit labor cost, nonfarm business sector (Q).-Sources and (9,7) 7. Value of manufacturers' new orders, capital goods industries, nondefense, in 97 dollars (M).-Sources,, and (,66) 8. New private housing units started, total (M). Source (,67) 9. Index of new private housing units authorized by local building permits (M).-Source (,,67) Gross private domestic investment, change in business inventories, all industries, in 97 dollars (Q).-Source (6,,68,8) Change in book value of manufacturing and trade inventories, total (M).-Sources and (6,68) Vendor performance, percent of companies receiving slower deliveries (M). Purchasing Management Association of Chicago (,,6) Net change in mortgage debt held by financial institutions and life insurance companies (M). American Council of Life Insurance; Federal National Mortgage Association; U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, Government National Mortgage Association; National Association of Mutual Savings Banks; U.S. Savings and Loan League; and source ; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (,7). Net cash flow, corporate, in current dollars (Q). Source (9,7). Net cash flow, corporate, in 97 dollars (Q). Source (9,7) 6. Net change in inventories on hand and on order in 97 dollars (smoothed) (M).-Sources,, and (,6,68) 7. Number of persons unemployed, labor force survey (M).-Sources and (8,,6,89) 8. Change in stocks of materials and supplies on hand and on order, manufacturing (M). Source (6,68) 9. Percent of consumer installment loans delinquent days and over (EOM). American Bankers Association (,7). Number of employees in nonagricultural goodsproducing industries mining, manufacturing, and construction (M).-Source (7,6). Number of employees on nonagricultural payrolls, establishment survey (M).-Source (,7,6). Number of persons engaged in nonagricultural activities, labor force survey (M).-Sources and (7,6) Unemployment rate, total (M).-Sources and (8,6). Unemployment rate, persons unemployed weeks and over (M).-Sources and (8,6). Average weekly insured unemployment rate, State programs (M). U.S. Department of Labor, Employment and Training Administration (8,6) 6. Index of help-wanted advertising in newspapers (M). The Conference Board (7,6) 7. Index of industrial production, total (M). Source (,,9,8,6,78,9). Employee-hours in nonagricultural establishments (M).-Source (7,9,6) 9. Value of goods output in 97 dollars (Q). Source (,6). Gross national product in 97 dollars (Q). Source (9,9,,6,8). Personal income, less transfer payments, in 97 dollars (M).-Source (,9,9,6). Personal income, total, in 97 dollars (M).-Source (9,6) Wage and salary income in mining, manufacturing, and construction in 97 dollars (M). Sources and (9,6). Sales of retail stores in current dollars (M). Source (,6). Personal consumption expenditures, automobiles (Q). Source (,6) 6. Manufacturing and trade sales in current dollars (M).- Sources and (,6) 7. Manufacturing and trade sales in 97 dollars (M). Sources,, and (,,6) 8. Index of consumer sentiment (Q,M). University of Michigan, Survey Research Center (,6). Sales of retail stores in 97 dollars (M).-Sources, and (,6)

121 TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES- Continued 6. Ratio, help-wanted advertising in newspapers (series 6) to number of persons unemployed (series 7) (M). Sources,,, and The Conference Board (7,6) 6. Business expenditures for new plant and equipment, total (Q).-Source (,67) 6. Index of labor cost per unit of output, total manufacturing ratio, index of compensation of employees in manufacturing (sum of wages, salaries, and supplements to wages and salaries) to index of industrial production, manufacturing (M). Sources and (,,7) 6 Index of unit labor cost, private business sector (Q).- Source (,7) 6. Compensation of employees as a percent of national income (Q).-Source (,7,7,8) 6. Manufacturers' inventories of finished goods, book value, all manufacturing industries (EOM). Source (7,68) 66. Consumer installment credit (EOM).-Source ; FRB seasonally adjusted net change added to seasonally adjusted figure for previous month to obtain current figure (,7) 67. Bank rates on short-term business loans (Q).-Source (,7) 68. Labor cost (current dollars) per unit of gross domestic product (97 dollars), nonfinancial corporations ratio of current-dollar compensation of employees to real gross corporate product (Q). Source (,7) 69. Manufacturers' machinery and equipment sales and business construction expenditures (industrial and commercial construction put in place) (M).-Source (,67) 7. Manufacturing and trade inventories in 97 dollars (EOM).-Sources,, and (,7,68) 7. Manufacturing and trade inventories, total book value, in current dollars (EOM).-Sources and (7,68) 7. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding, weekly reporting large commercial banks (M).-Source ; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (,,7) 7 Index of industrial production, durable manufactures (M).-Source (,6) 7. Index of industrial production, nondurable manufactures (M).-Source (,6) 7. Index of industrial production, consumer goods (M). Source (,6) 76. Index of industrial production, business equipment (M).-Source (,67) 77. Ratio, constant-dollar inventories (series 7) to sales (series 7), manufacturing and trade, total (EOM). Sources,, and (7,68) 78. Stocks of materials and supplies on hand and on order, manufacturing (EOM). Source (7,68) 79. Corporate profits after taxes with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments in current dollars (Q).-Source (8,69) 8. Corporate profits after taxes with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments in 97 dollars (Q).-Source (8,69) 8. Ratio of profits (after taxes) with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments to total corporate domestic income (Q). Source (9,7) 8. Rate of capacity utilization, manufacturing (Q). Source (,6) 8 Rate of capacity utilization, manufacturing (EOQ). Source (,6) 8. Rate of capacity utilization, materials (Q). Source (,6) 8. Change in money supply Ml-B (M).-Source (,7) 86. Gross private domestic fixed investment, total nonresidential, in 97 dollars (Q).-Source (,67) 87. Gross private domestic fixed investment, nonresidential structures, in 97 dollars (Q).-Source (,67) 88. Gross private domestic fixed investment, nonresidential producers' durable equipment, in 97 dollars (Q).- Source (,67) 89. Gross private domestic fixed investment, total residential, in 97 dollars (Q).-Source (,67) 9. Ratio, civilian employment to total population of working age (M).-Sources,, and (8,6) 9. Average (mean) duration of unemployment in weeks (M).-Sources and (,8,6) 9. Chance in sensitive crude materials prices (PPI of crude materials less agricultural products) (smoothed) (M).- Sources and (,8,69) 9 Free reserves (member banks excess reserves minus borrowings) (M).-Source (,7) 9. Member bank borrowings from the Federal Reserve (M).-Source (,7) 9. Ratio, consumer installment credit to personal income (EOM).-Sources and (,,7) 96. Manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries (EOM).-Source (,6) 97. Backlog of capital appropriations,, manufacturing corporations (EOQ). The Conference Board (,66). Change in money supply M (M).-Source (,7). Change in total liquid assets (smoothed) (M).-Sources and (,,7). Money supply Ml-B in 97 dollars (M).-Sources,, and (,7) 6. Money supply M in 97 dollars (M).--Sources,, and (,,7) 7. Ratio, gross national product to money supply Ml-B (Q).-Sources and (,7) 8. Ratio, personal income to money supply M (M). Sources and (,7) 9. Average prime rate charged by banks (M).-Source (,7). Total funds raised by private nonfinancial borrowers in credit markets (Q).-Source (,7). Net change in bank loans to businesses (M).-Source ; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (,7) Net change in consumer installment credit (M).-Source (,7). Discount rate on new issues of 9-day Treasury bills (M).-Source (,7). Yield on long-term Treasury bonds (M).-U.S. Department of the Treasury (,7) 6. Yield on new issues of high-grade corporate bonds (M).-Citibank and U.S. Department of the Treasury (,7) 7. Yield on municipal bonds, -bond average (M). The Bond Buyer (,7) 8. Secondary market yields on FHA mortgages (M). U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, Federal Housing Administration (,7) 9. Federal funds rate (M).-Source -C. Diffusion Indexes (,7) 9. Diffusion index of twelve leading indicator components (M).-Source (6,7) 9. Diffusion index of four roughly coincident indicator components (M). Source (6,7) 9. Diffusion index of six lagging indicator components (M).-Source (6,7) 96. Diffusion index of net profits, manufacturing about 7 companies (Q). Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced without written permission from the source.) (,7) 96. Diffusion index of average workweek of production workers, manufacturing industries (M).-Sources and (6,7,77) 96. Diffusion index of initial claims for unemployment insurance, State programs areas (M).-Source and U.S. Department of Labor, Employment and Training Administration; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (6,7) 96 Diffusion index of number of employees on private nonagricultural payrolls 7 industries (M). Source (6,7) 96. Diffusion index of value of manufacturers' new orders, durable goods industries industries (M).-Sources and (7,7,77) 96. Diffusion index of newly approved capital appropriations, deflated 7 manufacturing industries (Q).-The Conference Board (7,7) 966. Diffusion index of industrial production industries (M).-Sources and (7,7,78) 967. Diffusion index of spot market prices, raw industrials industrial materials (M).-Sources and (7,7,79) 968. Diffusion index of stock prices, common stocks -8 industries (M).-Standard & Poor's Corporation (7,7) 97. Diffusion index of business expenditures for new plant and equipment, total 8 industries (Q). Source (8,76) 97. Diffusion index of new orders, manufacturing about 7 businessmen reporting (Q). Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced without written permission from the source.) (8,76) 97. Diffusion index of net profits, manufacturing and trade about businessmen reporting (Q). Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced without written permission from the source.) (8,76) 97 Diffusion index of net sales, manufacturing and tradeabout businessmen reporting (Q).-Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced without written permission from the source.) (8,76) 97. Diffusion index of number of employees, manufacturing and trade about businessmen reporting (Q). Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced without written permission from the source.) (8,76) 97. Diffusion index of level of inventories, manufacturing and trade about businessmen reporting (Q). Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced without written permission from the source.) (8,76) 976. Diffusion index of selling prices, manufacturing about 7 businessmen reporting (Q).-Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced without written permission from the source.) (8,76)

122 6 TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES- Continued 977. Diffusion index of selling prices, wholesale trade about businessmen reporting (Q). Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced without written permission from the source.) (8,76) 978. Diffusion index of selling prices, retail trade about businessmen reporting (Q). Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced without written permission from the source.) (8,76) -A. National Income and Product Gross private domestic investment, change in business inventories, all industries, in 97 dollars (Q).-Source (6,, 68, 8). Gross national product in 97 dollars (Q).-Source (9,9,,6,8) 6. Compensation of employees as a percent of national income (Q).-Source (,7,7,8). Gross national product in current dollars (Q). Source (,8) Final sales (series minus series ) in 97 dollars (Q).-Source (,8) 7. Per capita gross national product in 97 dollars (Q).- Sources and (,8). National income in current dollars (Q). Source (,8) Personal income in current dollars (M). Source (,6). Disposable personal income in current dollars (Q).- Source (,8). Disposable personal income in 97 dollars (Q).- Source (,8) 7. Per capita disposable personal income in 97 dollars (Q).-Sources and (,8) Personal consumption expenditures, total, in current dollars (Q).-Source (,8) Personal consumption expenditures, total, in 97 dollars (Q).-Source (,8) Personal consumption expenditures, durable goods, in current dollars (Q).-Source (,8) Personal consumption expenditures, durable goods, in 97 dollars (Q).-Source (,8). Personal consumption expenditures, total, as a percent of gross national product (Q).-Source (7,8) 6. Personal consumption expenditures, nondurable goods, in current dollars (Q).-Source (,8) 7. Personal consumption expenditures, services, in current dollars (Q).-Source (,8) 8. Personal consumption expenditures, nondurable goods, in 97 dollars (Q).-Source (,8) 9. Personal consumption expenditures, services, in 97 dollars (Q).-Source (,8). Gross private domestic investment, total, in current dollars (Q).-Source (,8). Gross private domestic investment, total, in 97 dollars (Q).-Source (,8). Gross private domestic fixed investment, total, in current dollars (Q).-Source (,8) Gross private domestic fixed investment, total, in 97 dollars (Q).-Source (,8). Gross private domestic investment, change in business inventories, all industries, in current dollars (Q). Source (,8) 7. Gross private domestic investment, change in business inventories, all industries, as a percent of gross national product (Q).-Source (7,8). Gross private domestic fixed investment, nonresidential, as a percent of gross national product (Q).-Source (7,8) 9. Gross private domestic fixed investment, residential, as a percent of gross national product (Q). Source (7,8). Net exports of goods and services in current dollars; national income and product accounts (Q). Source (,8). Net exports of goods and services as a percent of gross national product (Q).-Source (7,8). Exports of goods and services in current dollars; national income and product accounts (Q). Source (,8) Imports of goods and services in current dollars; national income and product accounts (Q). Source (,8). Net exports of goods and services in 97 dollars; national income and product accounts (Q). Source (,8) 6. Exports of goods and services in 97 dollars; national income and product accounts (Q). Source (,8) 7. Imports of goods and services in 97 dollars; national income and product accounts (Q). Source (,8) 6. Government purchases of goods and services, total, in current dollars (Q).-Source (,8) 6. Government purchases of goods and services, total, in 97 dollars (Q).-Source (,8) 6. Federal Government purchases of goods and services in current dollars (Q).-Source (,8) 6 Federal Government purchases of goods and services in 97 dollars (Q).-Source (,8) 6. Federal Government purchases of goods and services as a percent of gross national product (Q).-Source (7,8) 66. State and local government purchases of goods and services in current dollars (Q).-Source (,8) 67. State and local government purchases of goods and services in 97 dollars (Q).-Source (,8) 68. State and local government purchases of goods and services as a percent of gross national product (Q). Source (7,8) 8. Compensation of employees (Q).-Source (,8) 8. Proprietors' income with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments (Q). Source (,8) 8 Proprietors' income with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments as a percent of national income (Q).-Source (7,8) 8. Rental income of persons with capital consumption adjustment (Q).-Source (,8) 8. Rental income of persons with capital consumption adjustment as a percent of national income (Q). Source (7,8) 86. Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments (Q). Source (7,8) 87. Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments as a percent of national income (Q).-Source (7,8) 88. Net interest (Q).-Source (,8) 89. Net interest as a percent of national income (Q). Source (7,8) 9. Gross saving private saving plus government surplus or deficit (Q).-Source (6,8) 9. Personal saving (Q). Source (6,8) 9 Personal saving rate personal saving as a percent of disposable personal income (Q). Source (6,8) 9. Business saving undistributed corporate profits plus capital consumption allowances with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments (Q). Source (6,8) 98. Government surplus or deficit, total (Q).-Source (6,8) Il-B. Prices, Wages, and Productivity Implicit price deflator, gross national product (Q). Source (,8) Fixed-weighted price index, gross business product (Q).-Source (,8) Index of consumer prices, all items (M).-Source (9,,8,9) Index of consumer prices, food (M).-Source (9,8) Index of producer prices, all commodities (M).-Source (,8) Index of producer prices, crude materials for further processing (M).-Source (,8) Index of producer prices, intermediate materials, supplies, and components (M).-Source (,86) Index of producer prices, capital equipment (M).- Source (,86). Index of producer prices, finished consumer goods (M).-Source (,86). Index of producer prices, industrial commodities ( M).- Source (,8). Index of average hourly earnings of production workers, private nonfarm economy adjusted for overtime (in manufacturing only), interindustry employment shifts, and seasonality (M).-Source (9,87). Index of real average hourly earnings of production workers, private nonfarm economy adjusted for overtime (in manufacturing only), interindustry employment shifts, and seasonality (M).-Source (9,87). Index of average hourly compensation, all employees, nonfarm business sector (Q).-Source (9,87) 6. Index of real average hourly compensation, all employees, nonfarm business sector (Q). Source (9,88). Negotiated wage and benefit decisions, all industriesfirst year average (mean) changes (Q). Source (,88) 9. Negotiated wage and benefit decisions, all industriesaverage (mean) changes over life of contract (Q). Source (,88) 8. Index of output per hour, all persons, nonfarm business sector (Q).-Source (9,88) 7. Index of output per hour, all persons, private business sector (Q).-Source (9,88) Il-C. Labor Force, Employment, and Unemployment 7. Number of persons unemployed, labor force survey (M).-Sources and (8,,6,89). Total civilian labor force, labor force survey (M). Sources and (,89). Total civilian employment, labor force survey (M). Sources and (,89). Number unemployed, males years and over, labor force survey (M).-Sources and (,89)

123 TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES- Continued. Number unemployed, females years and over, labor force survey (M).-Sources and (,89) 6. Number unemployed, both sexes 6-9 years of age, labor force survey (M).-Sources and (,89) 7. Number unemployed, full-time workers, labor force survey (M).-Sources and (,89). Number employed, part-time workers for economic reasons, labor force survey (M).-Sources and (,89). Civilian labor force participation rate, males years and over (M).-Sources and (,89). Civilian labor force participation rate, females years and over (M).-Sources and (,89) Civilian labor force participation rate, both sexes 6-9 years of age (M).-Sources and (,89) Il-D. Government Activities. Federal Government surplus or deficit; national income and product accounts (Q). Source (,9). Federal Government receipts; national income and product accounts (Q).-Source (,9). Federal Government expenditures; national income and product accounts (Q).-Source (,9). State and local government surplus or deficit; national income and product accounts (Q). Source (,9). State and local government receipts; national income and product accounts (Q).-Source (,9). State and local government expenditures; national income and product accounts (Q). Source (,9) 7. Defense Department gross obligations incurred (M).- U.S. Department of Defense, OSD, Comptroller, Directorate for Program and Financial Control; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (,9). Defense Department military prime contract awards for work performed in the United States (M).-U.S. Department of Defense, OSD, Comptroller, Washington Headquarters Services; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (,9) Defense Department gross unpaid obligations outstanding (EOM).-U.S. Department of Defense, OSD, Comptroller, Directorate for Program and Financial Control; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (,9). Value of manufacturers' new orders, defense products (M).- Source (,9) 7. Output of defense and space equipment (M). Source (,9). Value of manufacturers' inventories, defense products (EOM).-Source (,9) 6. Value of manufacturers' unfilled orders, defense products (EOM).-Source (,9) 6. Federal Government purchases of goods and services for national defense (Q).-Source (,9) 6. National defense purchases as a percent of gross national product (Q).-Source (,9) 7. Employment in defense products industries (M).- Source ; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (,9) 77. Defense Department personnel, military, active duty (EOM).-U.S. Department of Defense, OSD, Comptroller, Washington Headquarters Services (,9) 78. Defense Department personnel, civilian, direct hire employment (EOM).-U.S. Department of Defense, OSD, Comptroller, Washington Headquarters Services(,9) 8. Defense Department net outlays, military functions and military assistance (M). U.S. Department of Defense, OSD, Comptroller, Directorate for Program and Financial Control; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (,9) 88. Value of manufacturers' shipments, defense products (M).-Source (,9) Il-E. U.S. International Transactions 6. Exports, excluding military aid shipments, total (M). Source (6,9) 6. Exports of agricultural products (M).-Source ; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (6,9) 66. Exports of nonelectrical machinery (M). Source ; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (6,9) 6. General imports, total (M).-Source (6,9) 6. Imports of petroleum and petroleum products (M). Source ; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (6,9) 66. Imports of automobiles and parts (M). Source ; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (6,9) 68. Merchandise exports, adjusted, excluding military grants (Q).-Source (7,9) 6. Merchandise imports, adjusted, excluding military (Q).-Source (7,9) 6. Balance on merchandise trade (Q).-Source (7,9) 6. Income on U.S. investments abroad (Q). Source (7,9) 6. Income on foreign investments in the United States (Q).-Source (7,9) 667. Balance on goods and services (Q). Source (7,9) 668. Exports of goods and services, excluding transfers under U.S. military grants (Q).-Source (7,9) 669. Imports of goods and services, total (Q).-Source (7,9) Il-F. International Comparisons 9. United States, index of stock prices, common stocks (M).-Standard & Poor's Corporation (,8,,69,96) 7. United States, index of industrial production, total (M).-Source (,,9,8,6,78,9) United States, index of consumer prices, all items (M).-Source (,,8,9) 7. Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, European countries, index of industrial production (M). Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (Paris) (8,9) 7. United Kingdom, index of industrial production (M).- Central Statistical Office (London) (8,9) 7 Canada, index of industrial production (M). Statistics Canada (Ottawa) (8,9) 7. West Germany, index of industrial production (M). Deutsche Bundesbank (Frankfurt) (8,9) 76. France, index of industrial production (M).-lnstitut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (Paris) (8,9) 77. Italy, index of industrial production (M).-lnstituto Centrale di Statistica (Rome) (8,9) 78. Japan, index of industrial production (M). Ministry of International Trade and Industry (Tokyo) (8,9) 7 United Kingdom, index of consumer prices (M). Ministry of Labour (London); percent changes seasonally adjusted by Bureau of Economic Analysis (,9) 7 Canada, index of consumer prices (M). Statistics Canada (Ottawa); percent changes seasonally adjusted by Bureau of Economic Analysis (,96) 7. West Germany, index of consumer prices (M). Statistisches Bundesamt (Wiesbaden); percent changes seasonally adjusted by Bureau of Economic Analysis (,9) 76. France, index of consumer prices (M).-lnstitut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (Paris); percent changes seasonally adjusted by Bureau of Economic Analysis (,9) 77. Italy, index of consumer prices (M). Instituto Centrale di Statistica (Rome); percent changes seasonally adjusted by Bureau of Economic Analysis (,96) 78. Japan, index of consumer prices (M).-Office of the Prime Minister (Tokyo); percent changes seasonally adjusted by Bureau of Economic Analysis (,9) 7. United Kingdom, index of stock prices (M).-The Financial Times (London) (,96) 7 Canada, index of stock prices (M). Statistics Canada (Ottawa) (,96) 7. West Germany, index of stock prices (M). Statistisches Bundesamt (Wiesbaden) (,96) 76. France, index of stock prices (M). Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (Paris) (,96) 77. Italy, index of stock prices (M). Instituto Centrale di Statistica (Rome) (,96) 7. Japan, index of stock prices (M).-Tokyo Stock Exchange (Tokyo) (,96)