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2 his report was prepared in the Statistical Indicators Division, Bureau of Economic Analysis. echnical staff and their responsibilities for the publication are- Barry A. Beckman-echnical supervision and review, Morton Somer Selection of seasonal adjustment methods, Betty F. unstall Collection and compilation of basic data. (elephone ) he cooperation of various government and private agencies which provide data is gratefully acknowledged. Agencies furnishing data are indicated in the list of series and sources at the back of this report. his publication is prepared under the general guidance of a technical committee established by the Office of Management and Budget. he committee consists of the following persons: Edgar R. Fiedler, Chairman Department of the reasury Joseph W. Duncan, Office of Management and Budget Murray F. Foss, Council of Economic Advisers, Executive Office of the resident George Jaszi, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Department of Commerce J. Cortland eret, Federal Reserve Board Julius Shiskin, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Department of Labor U. S. DEARMEN OF COMMERCE Rogers C. B. Morton, Secretary James L. ate, Assistant Secretary for Economic Affairs BUREAU OF ECONOMIC ALYSIS George Jaszi, Director Morris R. Goldman, Deputy Director Beatrice N. Vaccara, Associate Director for National Analysis and rojections Feliks amm, Editor IOL INCOME AND RODUC accounts summarize both receipts and final expenditures for the personal, business, foreign, and government sectors of the economy and provide useful measures of total economic activity. he total of the final expenditures, which equals the total of the receipts, is known as gross national product, the most comprehensive single measure of aggregate economic output GN is defined as the total market value of the final output of goods and services produced by the Nation's economy. CYCLICAL INDICAORS are economic time series which have been singled out as leaders, coinciders, or /aggers in relation to movements in aggregate economic activity. In this report, the series on the NBER's list of cyclical indicators are classified by economic process and by cyclical timing. hese indicators were selected primarily on the basis of their cyclical behavior, but they have also proven useful in forecasting, measuring, and interpreting other short-term fluctuations in aggregate economic activity. ANICIAIONS AND INENIONS data provide information on the plans of businessmen and consumers regarding their major economic activities in the near future. his information is considered to be a valuable aid to economic forecasting either directly or as an indication of the state of confidence concerning the economic outlook. A number of surveys by various organizations and government agencies have been developed in recent years to ascertain anticipations and intentions. he results of some of these surveys, expressed as time series, are presented in this report. his monthly report brings together many of the economic time series found most useful by business analysts and forecasters. Its predecessor. Business Cycle Developments, emphasized the cyclical indicators approach to the analysis of business conditions and was based largely on the list of leading, roughly coincident, and lagging indicators maintained by the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. Some other approaches commonly used by students of economic conditions include econometric models and anticipations and intentions data. he econometric model concept utilizes historical and mathematical relationships among consumption, private investment, government, and various components of the major aggregates to generate forecasts of gross national product and its composition. Anticipations and intentions data express the expectations of businessmen and the intentions of consumers. Most of the content of Business Cycle Developments has been retained in this new report and additional data reflecting the emphasis of other approaches have been added to make it more generally useful to those concerned with an evaluation of current business conditions and prospects. he use of the National Bureau's list of indicators and business cycle turning dates in the cyclical indicators section of this report, as well as the use of other concepts, is not to be taken as implying endorsement by the Bureau of Economic Analysis or any other government agency of any particular approach to economic analysis. his report is intended only to provide statistical information so arranged as to facilitate the analysis of the course of the Nation's economy. Almost all of the basic data presented in this report have been published by their source agencies. A series finding guide, as well as a complete list of series titles and data sources, is shown at the back of this report. Subscription price, including supplements, is $55.25 a year ($.85 additional for foreign mailing). Single issues are $4.5. Airmail delivery is available at an additional charge. For information about domestic or foreign airmail delivery, write to the Superintendent of Documents (address below), enclosing a copy of your address label. Make checks payable to the Supc tendent of Documents. Send to U.S. Government rinting Office, W ington, D.C. 242.

3 New Features and Changes for his Issue iii BUSINESS CONDIIONS DIGES JULY Data hrough Series ES No MEHOD OF RESENAION Seasonal Adjustments MCD Moving Averages Reference urning Dates Section A. National Income and roduct Section B. Cyclical Indicators 2 Section C. Anticipations and Intentions Section D. Other Key Indicators Section E. Analytical Measures Section F. International Comparisons How to Read Charts 4 How to Locate a Series 4 Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes 5 AR I. CHARS IOL INCOME AND RODUC ANICIAIONS AND INENIONS A4 A5 Afi A7 A8 A9 AQ All Gross National roduct 9 National and ersonal Income ersonal Consumption Expenditures Gross rivate Domestic Investment 2 Foreign rade Government urchases of Goods and Services.. 4 Final Sales and Inventories 5 National Income Components 6 Saving 7 Real Gross National roduct 8 Shares of GN and National Income 9 D D4 D5 Aggregate Series 44 Diffusion Indexes 46 OHER KEY INDICAORS Foreign rade 48 Balance of ayments and Major Components Federal Government Activities 54 rice Movements 56 Wages and roductivity 58 Civilian Labor Force and Major Components... 6 B2 B B4 B5 B6 B7 B8 CYCLICAL INDICAORS Economic rocess and Cyclical iming Employment and Unemployment 2 roduction, Income, Consumption, and rade.. 2 Fixed Capital Investment 25 Inventories and Inventory Investment 28 rices, Costs, and rofits Money and Credit Selected Indicators by iming Composite Indexes 7 NBER Short List 9 ALYICAL MEASURES Actual and otential Gross National roduct... 6 Analytical Ratios. 62 Diffusion Indexes 6 Rates of Change 65 INERIOL COMARISONS Consumer rices 66 Industrial roduction 67 Stock rices 68 he Secretary of Commerce has determined that the publication of this periodical is necessary in the transaction of the public business required by law of this Department. Use of funds for printing this periodical has been approved by the Director of the Office of Management and Budget through September,.

4 AR II. ABLES A A2 A A4 A5 A6 A7 A8 A9 A A IOL INCOME AND RODUC Gross National roduct 69 National and ersonal Income 69 ersonal Consumption Expenditures 7 Gross rivate Domestic Investment 7 Foreign rade 7 Government urchases of Goods and Services.. 7 Final Sales and Inventories 7 National Income Components 7 Saving 72 Real Gross National roduct 72 Shares of GN and National Income 7 D D2 D D4 D5 D6 ANICIAIONS AND INENIONS Aggregate Series 84 Diffusion Indexes 84 OHER KEY INDICAORS Foreign rade 86 Balance of ayments and Major Components Federal Government Activities 89 rice Movements 9 Wages and roductivity 92 Civilian Labor Force and Major Components B B2 B B4 B5 B6 B7 CYCLICAL INDICAORS Economic rocess and Cyclical iming Employment and Unemployment 74 roduction, Income, Consumption, and rade.. 76 Fixed Capital Investment 77 I nventories and I nventory I nvestment 78 rices, Costs, and rofits 79 Money and Credit 8 Selected Indicators by iming Composite I ndexes 8 me2 E E4 ALYICAL MEASURES Actual and otential GN 95 Analytical Ratios 96 Diffusion Indexes 97 Selected Diffusion Index Components 99 INERIOL COMARISONS Consumer rices Industrial roduction Stock rices 4 AR III. AENDIXES A. MCD and Related Measures of Variability (See December 974 issue) QCD and Related Measures of Variability (See November 974 issue) B. Current Adjustment Factors 5 C. Historical Data for Selected Series 6 D. Descriptions and Sources of Series (See "Alphabetical Index-Series Finding Guide") E. Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions in the United States: 854 to 97 (See February issue) F. Specific rough and eak Dates for Selected Business Indicators (See April issue) G. Experimental Data and Analyses 2 Alphabetical Index Series Finding Guide 7 itles and Sources of Series 2

5 headers are invited to submit comments and uggestions concerning this publication. \ddress them to Feliks amm, Statistical ndicators Division, Bureau of Economic Analysis, J.S. Department of Commerce, Washington, D.C. 22 NEW FEAURES AND CHANGES FOR HIS ISSUE Changes in this issue are as follows:. he series on Real average hourly compensation of employees, private nonfarm economy (series 746), has been revised by the source agency beginning with the first quarter 97. his revision reflects the recent seasonal adjustment of the consumer price index which is used as the deflator for this series. (See "New Features and Changes for his Issue," page iv of the issue of Business Conditions Digest.) Further information concerning this revision may be obtained from the U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Office of roductivity and echnology. A limited number of changes are made from tifftq to tffl$# to lit* corporate recent findings of economic research, newly available time series, mti revisions made by source agencies in concept, composit/on, comparability, coverage, seasonal adjustment methods, benchmark data, etc. Changes may result in revisions of data, additions or deletions of series, placement of Qthw series, changes in composition of indexes, etc* 2. he Index of stock prices, West Germany (series 4.5), has been revised in its entirety by the source agency. his revision reflects a new weighting system and a change in the number of stock companies quoted in the stock exchange. Further information concerning this revision may be obtained from Statistisches Bundesamt, Wiesbaden, West Germany. - Appendix C contains historical data for series 55, 55c, 58, D58, 85, 2,, 75, 75, 752, 78, 78lc, 782, 78, and 784 4* Recession comparisons are shown in appendix G for series, 5,, 8, 9, 29, 2, 4, 4, 44, 47, and 825. he August issue of BUSINESS CONDIIONS DIGES is release on August 29. in scheduled for

6 6 BEA ROJECS for economic analysis BUSINESS CONDIIONS DIGES A monthly report for analyzing economic fluctuations over a short span of years. his report brings together approximately 6 economic time series in a form convenient for analysts whether their approach to the study of current business conditions and prospects is the national income model, the leading indicators, anticipations and intentions, or a combination of these. Other types of data such as foreign trade, Federal Government activities, and international series are included to facilitate a more complete analysis. Data are presented in charts and tables. Appendixes provide historical data, series descriptions, seasonal adjustment factors, and measures of variability. A computer tape containing data for most of the series is available for purchase. DEFENSE INDICAORS A monthly report for analyzing the current and prospective impact of defense activity on the national economy. his report brings together the principal time series on defense activities which influence short-term changes in the national economy. hese include series on obligations, contracts, orders, shipments, inventories, expenditures, employment, and earnings. he approximately 6 time series included are grouped in accordance with the time at which the activities they measure occur in the defense orderproduction-delivery process. Charts and analytical tables facilitate interpretation. LONG ERM ECONOMIC GROWH A report for the study of economic trends over a long span of years, his report has been developed from available statistics to provide a comprehensive, long-range view of the U.S. economy. It is a basic research document for economists, historians, investors, teachers, and students. It brings together under one cover, in meaningful and convenient form, the complete statistical basis for a study of longterm economic trends. A computer tape file of the time series included in the report is available for purchase. COMUER ROGRAMS FOR IME SERIES ALYSIS he source statements for FORRAN IV programs used by BEA in its analysis of time series are available on a single computer tape. SEASOL ADJUSMEN ROGRAMS. wo variants of the Census computer program for measuring and analyzing seasonal, trading-day, cyclical, and irregular fluctuations. hey are particularly useful in analyzing economic fluctuations which take place within a year. he X-ll variant is used for adjusting monthly data and the X-Q for quarterly data. hese programs make additive as well as multiplicative adjustments and compute many summary and analytical measures. DIFFUSION INDEX ROGRAM. A computer program for computing diffusion indexes, cumulated diffusion indexes, and summary measures of the properties of each index. SURVEY OF CURREN BUSINESS A monthly report for analyzing current economic developments. his report provides a useful combination of current data for more than 2,5 statistical series and significant articles analyzing economic developments. hese data and analyses include such areas as the national income and product accounts, the balance of payments accounts, plant and equipment expenditures, regional personal income, and the input-output accounts. BUSINESS SAISICS A biennial reference volume containing statistical series reported currently in the Survey of Current Business. his report provides historical data back to 947 for nearly 2,5 time series. he series are accompanied by concise descriptions as to their composition, methods of compilation, comparability, revisions, and availability. Also listed are the names and addresses of organizations which provide the basic data for the series.

7 CHAR I. NEW COMOSIE INDEX OF LEADING INDICAORS * * * (DEC.) (NOV.) (NOV.) (OC.) (JULY)IMAY) (AUG.MAR.) (AR.)(FEB. n F F m M l W i M I I I I I I M l I I I I n I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I M l j U l I I I M l I I I I I I I I I Index: 967= New index of 2 leading indicators, original trend New index of 2 leading indicators, reverse trend adjusted ISO J 4 m m iiiijjiin m m in m m m m NOE: Current data for these series are shown on page vii. he old index of 2 leading indicators is shown on page 2. Revised reference turning dates. (See BCD, page vii.) Original trend replaced by trend of deflated coincident index (series 825).

8 CHAR II. COMONENS OF NEW COMOSIE INDEX OF LEADING INDICAORS (NOV.) (OC.) (JULY)(MAY) jmininnminiuuunit X2. New orders, consumer goods and materials, 967 dollars (bil. dol D. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment, 967 dollars (bil. dol.) Vrvb X76D. Net change in inventories on hand and on order, 967 dollars, smoothed (ann. rate, bil. dol. 5 CM 25 ± X2. ercent change in sensitive prices, WI crude materials excluding foods and feeds, smoothed (percent) I I I X8. Money balance (Ml), 967 dollars (bil. dol. e in total liquid assets, smoothed (percent) f ^ +.5 " il \\i\ ii.ill im\ NOE: Current data for these series are shown on page vii. Revised reference turning dates. (See BCD, page vii.) Series is a weighted 4,-term moving average (with weights,2,2,) placed at the terminal month of the span. VI

9 ABLE I. CURREN DAA FOR NEW COMOSIE INDEX AND SELECED COMONENS Year and month New composite index of 2 leading indicators, original trend New composite index of 2 leading indicators, reverse trend adjusted X2. New orders, consumer goods and materials, 967 dollars D. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment, 967 dollars X7D. Net change in inventories on hand and on order, 967 dollars, smoothed 2 X2. ercent change in sensitive prices, WI crude materials excluding foods and feeds, smoothed 2 XI8. Money balance (M) 967 dollars X6. ercent change in total liquid assets, smoothed 2 (967=) (967=) (Mil.dol.) (Bil.dol.) bil.dol.) (ercent) (Bil.dol.) (ercent) January February March ,9 29,5 29, April August September... October November... December ) E> ,64,25 29,7,9,2 29,62 ),628 29,97 28, [) H> January February March ,94 27,752, April ,29 28,787 28, H) August September... October November... December OO ,577 28,548 27,24 26,54 24,7 2, O.46 January February March April r9.7 r9o. r9. r rll8.6 rl2. rl ,576 2,9 2,494 r22,74 r22,67 p22, r7.84 r r-7.46 r-22.8 r r rl8l r.76 po.89 August September... October November... December... NOE: Graphs of these series are shown on pages v and vi. Historical data were shown in the BCD (pages xx-xxii). he old index of 2 leading indicators is shown on page 2. Series are seasonally adjusted. Current high values are indicated by (H). he "r" indicates revised; "p I?, preliminary; "e", estimated; and "", not available. ""Reverse trend adjusted index contains the same trend as the deflated coincident index (series 825). 2 Series is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights,2,2,) placed at the terminal month of the span. Series X8 reached its current high value (2.9) in December Excludes series, 2, and X7D for which data are not yet available. Vll

10 ABLE II. SECIFIC EAKS AND ROUGHS FOR NEW COMOSIE INDEX AND IS COMONENS Specific dates are listed under the reference cycle dates to which they correspond. Numbers in parentheses indicate leads (-) or lags (+) of specific dates in relation to reference dates. Series December 969 Specific peak dates corresponding to contractions beginning in April 96 August November 948 New composite index of 2 leaders, original trend New composite index of 2 leaders, reverse trend adjusted. Average workweek, production workers, manufacturing... Layoff rate, manufacturing (inverted) 2. Index of net business formation X2. New orders, consumer goods and materials, 967 dollars.. D. Contracts and orders for plant and equip., 967 dollars Index of new building permits, private housing units X7D. Net change in inventories on hand and on order, 967 dollars, smoothed.. 2. Vendor performance, percent of companies reporting slower deliveries X2. ercent change in sensitive prices, WI crude materials excluding foods and feeds, smoothed 9. Index of stock prices, 5 common stocks X8. Money balance (M), 967 dollars XI6. ercent change in total liquid assets, smoothed Jan. 69 (-) Jan. 69 (-) Feb. 68 (-22) Apr. 69 (-8) Feb. 69 (-) Oct. 69 (-2) Jan. 69 (-) Feb. 69 (-) Aug. 69 (-4) 69 (-6) Sep. 69 (-) Dec. 68 (-2) Feb. 69 (-) Aug. 68 (-6) Apr. 59 (-2) 59 (-) Apr. 59 (-2) 59 (-) Apr. 59 (-2) Feb. 59 (-4) Mar. 59 (-) Nov. 58 (-7) Apr. 59 (-2) Oct. 59 (-6) Nov. 58 (-7) 59 (-9) 59 (-9) 59 (-9) Sep. 55 (-2) Sep. 55 (-2) Nov. 55 (-2) Nov. 55 (-2) 55 (-26) 55 (-25) Nov. 56 (-9) Feb. 55 (-) Sep. 56 (-) Oct. 55 (-22) Sep. 55 (-2) 56 (-) Apr. 56 (-6) Apr. 57 (-4) Mar. 5 (-4) Mar. 5 (-4) Mar. 5 (-4) Nov. 52 (-8) Sep. 52 (-) Jan. 5 (-6) Feb. 5 (-5) Nov. 52 (-8) Feb. 5 (-5) 52 (-2) Mar. 5 (-4) Jan. 5 (-6) 5 (-2) 5 (-2) Jan. 48* (-) Jan. 48* (-) Dec. 47 (-) 46 (-28) Jan. 48* (-) 48 (-5) Apr. 48 (-7) Oct. 47 (-) 48 (-4) Oct. 48 (-) Sep. 47 (-4) 48 (-5) 46 (-) Series November 97 Specific trough dates corresponding to expansions beginning in February 96 April October 949 New composite index of 2 leaders, original trend New composite index of 2 leaders, reverse trend adjusted. Average workweek, production workers, manufacturing... Layoff rate, manufacturing (inverted) 2. Index of net business formation X2. Neworders, consumer goods and materials, 967 dollars.. D. Contracts and orders for plant and equip., 967 dollars Index of new building permits, private housing units X7D. Net change in inventories on hand and on order, 967 dollars smoothed 2. Vendor performance, percfint of companies reporting slower deliveries "... X2. ercent change in sensitive prices, WI crude materials excluding foods and feeds, smoothed 9. Index of stock prices, 5 common stocks X8. Money balance (Ml), 967 dollars X6. ercent change in total liquid assets, smoothed Oct. 7 (-) Mar. 7 (-8) Sep. 7 (-2) Oct. 7 (-) Aug. 7 (-) Nov. 7 () Oct. 7 (-) Jan. 7 (-) Feb. 7 (-9) Dec. 7 (+) Sep. 7 (-2) 7 (-5) Feb. 7 (-9) Aug. 69 (-5) Dec. 6 (-2) Dec. 6 (-2) Dec. 6 (-2) Feb. 6 () Jan. 6 (-) Feb. 6 () Nov. 6 (-) Dec. 6 (-2) Feb. 6 () Mar. 6 (-) Apr. 6 (-) Oct. 6 (-4) 6 (-8) 6 (-7) Feb. 58 (-2) Feb. 58 (-2) Apr. 58 () Mar. 58 (-) Apr. 58 () Jan. 58 (-) Mar. 58 (-) Feb. 58 (-2) Apr. 58 () Dec. 57 (-4) Nov. 57 (-5) Dec. 57 (-4) Mar. 58 (-) Dec. 57 (-4) Nov. 5 (-6) Nov. 5 (-6) Apr. 54 (-) Jan. 54 (-4) Mar. 54 (-2) Oct. 5 (-7) Mar. 54 (-2) Sep. 5 (-8) Nov. 5 (-6) Dec. 5 (-5) Nov. 5 (-6) Sep. 5 (-8) Oct. 5 (-7) Dec. 5 (-5) 49 (-4) 49 (-4) Apr. 49 (-6) 49 (-5) 49 (-) 49 (-4) Apr. 49 (-6) Jan. 49 (-9) 49 (-4) Mar. 49 (-7) 49 (-4) 49 (-4) Aug. 48 (-4) NOE: Specific peaks and troughs mark the dates when individual series reach their cyclical turning points, whereas reference peak and trough dates indicate the cyclical turning points in business activity as a whole. his table is based on the revised reference turning dates. (See BCD, page vii.) = Not available. he data necessary to determine a turning point are not available. *Not necessarily the peak but the high for the available data. Series is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights,2, 2,) placed at the terminal month of the span. ABLE III. SUMMARY OF RECEN DAA FOR NEW COMOSIE INDEX AND IS COMONENS Unit of measure 97 Average 974 SG 2D AR. MAY JUNE 97b AR. O MAY ercent change MAY O JUNE 4HQ O S S O COMOSIE INDEXES 2 leading indicators: New index, original trend New index, reverse trend adjusted. 967=... do C INDEX COMONENS. Average workweek, production workers, manufacturing. Layoff rate, manufacturing (inverted 2 ) 2. Index of net business formation X2. Neworders, consumer goods and materials, 967 dollars D. Contracts and orders for plant and equip., 967 dollars 29, Index of new building permits, private housing units X7D. Net change in inventories on hand and on order, 967 dollars (smoothed 4 ) 2. Vendor performance, percent of companies reporting slower deliveries X2. ercent change in sensitive prices, WI crude materials excluding foods and feeds (smoothed 4 ) 9. Index of stock prices, 5 common stocks X8. Money balance (Ml), 967 dollars X6. ercent change in total liquid assets (smoothed 4 ) Hours er employ.. 967= Mil. dof Bil.dol 967= Ann. rate, bil. dol. ercent.. do 94-4=... Bil.dol ercent , C , E ?4, t> *.6.45 fl , , iv A ?, R , b ldl /C O.b9 NOE: Series are seasonally adjusted except for those indicated by, which appear to contain no seasonal movement. =Not available. For the latest month, new indexes are based on 9 components. 2 Inverted series. Since this series tends to move counter to movements in general business activity, the signs of the changes are reversed, shown for this series. 4 Series is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights,2,2,) placed at the terminal month of the span. -.. I. * 'Differences rather than percent changes are Vlll

11 MEHOD OF RESENAION HIS REOR is organized into six major subject sections, as follows: A. National Income and roduct B. Cyclical Indicators C. Anticipations and Intentions D. Other Key Indicators E. Analytical Measures F. International Comparisons Each of these sections is described briefly in this introduction. Data for each of the above sections are shown both in art I (charts) and in art II (tables) of the report. Most charts begin with 95 (except in section C where they begin with 957); the tables contain data for only the last few years. Except for section F, the charts contain shading which indicates periods of recession in general business activity. In addition to the charts and tables described above, each issue contains a summary table which shows the current behavior of many of the series, and several appendixes which present historical data, series descriptions, seasonal adjustment factors, and measures of variability. An index appears at the back of each issue. It should be noted that the series numbers used are for identification purposes only and do not reflect relationships or order. Seasonal Adjustments Adjustments for average seasonal fluctuations are often necessary to bring out the underlying trends of time series. Such adjustments allow for the effects of repetitive intrayear variations resulting primarily from normal differences in weather conditions and from various institutional arrangements. Variations attributable to holidays are usually accounted for by the seasonal adjustment process; however, a separate holiday adjustment is occasionally required for holidays with variable dates, such as Easter. An additional adjustment is sometimes necessary for series which contain considerable variation due to the number of working or trading days in each month. As used in this report, the term "seasonal adjustment" includes trading-day and holiday adjustments where they have been made. Most of the series in this report are presented in seasonally adjusted form and, in most cases, these are the official figures released by the source agencies. However, for the special purposes of this report, a number of series not ordinarily published in seasonally adjusted form are shown here on a seasonally adjusted basis. MCD Moving Averages Month-to-month changes in a series are often dominated by erratic movements. MCD (months for cyclical dominance) is an estimate of the appropriate span over which to observe cyclical movements in a monthly series. (See appendix A.) It is the smallest span of months for which the average change in the cyclical fagtor is greater than that in the irregular factor. he more erratic a series is, the larger the MCD will be; thus, MCD is for the smoothest series and 6 for the most erratic. MCD moving averages (that is, moving averages of the period equal to MCD) tend to have about the same degree of smoothness for all series. hus, a 5-term moving average of a series with an MCD of 5 will show its cyclical movements about as clearly as the seasonally adjusted data for a series with an MCD of. he charts for sections B and D include centered MCD moving averages for all series with an MCD greater than 4. he seasonally adjusted data are also plotted to indicate their variation about the moving averages and to provide observations for the most recent months. Reference urning Dates he historical business cycle turning dates used in this report are those designated by the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. (NBER). hey mark the approximate dates when, according to the NBER, aggregate economic activity reached its cyclical high or low levels. As a matter of general practice, neither new reference turning dates nor the shading for recessions will be entered on the charts until after both the new reference peak and the new reference trough bounding the shaded area have been designated. his policy is followed because of the conceptual and empirical difficulties of designating a current recession and the practical difficulties of terminating the shading of a current recession without including part of a new expansion. SECION A IOL INCOME AND RODUC he national income and product accounts, compiled by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), summarize both receipts and final expenditures for the personal, business, foreign, and government sectors of the economy and provide useful measures of total economic activity. he total of the final expenditures (including additions to business inventories), which equals the total of the receipts (mainly incomes), is known as gross national product (GN). GN is defined as the total market value of the final output of goods and services produced by the Nation's economy. It is the most comprehensive single measure of aggregate economic output. Gross national product consists of four major components: () ersonal consumption expenditures, (2) gross private domestic investment, () net exports of goods and services, and (4) government purchases of goods and services. ersonal consumption expenditures is the market value of goods (durable and nondurable) and services purchased by individuals and nonprofit institutions and the value of food, clothing, housing, and financial services received by them as income in kind. he total purchase cost is covered, including sales taxes. Home purchases are excluded, but the estimated rental value of owner-occupied homes is included. Gross private domestic investment combines gross fixed investment and net changes in business inventories. Fixed investment consists of producers' durable equipment and private (as opposed to government) structures, including owneroccupied residential units. he estimates are gross in the sense that there is no deduction for capital consumption. he inventory component measures the change in the physical volume of inventories valued at current replacement cost. Net exports of goods and services measures the excess of exports over imports. Exports include receipts from domestic output sold abroad, transportation, travel, other services, fees and royalties and income on investments in foreign areas. Imports include purchases of foreign goods, payments for transportation, travel and other services, military expenditures as well as payments of income on foreign investments in the United States. More detail on U.S. balance of payments is provided in section D. Government purchases of goods and serv ices includes general government expenditures for compensation of employees, net purchases from business and from abroad, payments to private nonprofit institutions for research and development, and the gross fixed investment of government enterprises. Not included are current outlays of government enterprises, acquisitions of land, transfer payments, subsidies, loans, and interest payments to domestic creditors. A breakdown of the goods portion of GN, covering durable and nondurable goods and both final sales and changes in business inventories, is also included in section A. Other major aggregates taken from the national income and product accounts are described below. National income is the total earnings arising from the current production of goods and services and accruing to the labor and property employed in production. he components of national income are compensation of employees, proprietors' income, rental income of persons, corporate profits and the inventory valuation adjustment, and net interest. ersonal income measures the current income of individuals, owners of unincorporated businesses, nonprofit institutions, private trust funds, and private health and welfare funds. It consists of wage and salary disbursements, other labor income, proprietors' income, rental income of persons, dividends, personal interest income, and transfer payments to persons, less personal contributions for social insurance. Disposable personal income is the personal income available for spending or saving. It consists of personal income less personal taxes and other nontax payments to general government.

12 Gross saving represents the difference between income and spending during an accounting period. It is the total of personal saving, undistributed corporate profits, corporate inventory valuation adjustment, the excess of wage accruals over disbursements (usually negligible), government surplus or deficit, and capital consumption allowances. Most of the series in this section are on a current-dollar basis, but some are shown on a constant (958) dollar basis so that the effects of price changes are eliminated. he implicit price deflator (computed by dividing the current-dollar data by the constant-dollar data) for total GN is also shown. SECION B CYCLICAL INDICAORS he business cycle is generally described as consisting of alternating periods of expansion and contraction in aggregate economic activity; that is, the complex of activities represented by such concepts as total production, employment, income, consumption, trade, and the flow of funds. Although a recurrent pattern has been characteristic of American economic history, many economists do not consider it inevitable. One of the techniques developed in business cycle research is widely used as a Cross-Classification of Cyclical Indicators by Economic rocess and Cyclical iming tool for analyzing current economic conditions and prospects. his is the cyclical indicators concept, which singles out certain economic time series as being leaders, coinciders, or laggers in relation to movements in aggregate economic activity. he NBER has, since 98, maintained a list of such indicators and has periodically subjected the list to extensive review. heir most recent (966) list of 7 cyclical indicators is the basis for this section of BCD. hese indicators were selected primarily for their cyclical behavior, but they have also proven useful in forecasting, measuring, and interpreting other short-term fluctuations in aggregate economic activity. he NBER employs a dual classification scheme which groups the indicators by cyclical timing and by economic process, and this report uses the same classification groupings. he diagram below summarizes the cross-classification system used in this section. he 79 cyclical indicators are presented with economic process as the principal basis of classification and cyclical timing as the secondary basis. he major processes are divided into minor processes which exhibit rather distinct differences in cyclical timing. he timing classification takes into account a series' historical record of timing at business cycle peaks and troughs. Leading indicators are those which usually reach peaks or troughs before the corresponding turns in aggregate economic activity; roughly coincident indicators are direct measures of aggregate economic activity or move roughly together with it; lagging indicators usually reach their turning points after the turns in aggregate economic activity. he NBER has also specified a "short list" of indicators. his more selective and substantially unduplicated group of principal indicators is drawn from the full list and provides a convenient summary of the current situation. he short list consists of 26 series: 2 leading, eight roughly coincident, and six lagging. Only five of these are quarterly series; the rest are monthly. he short list is classified only by timing and is shown separately in chart B8. Included in this section are a number of composite indexes which provide simple summary measures of the average behavior of selected groups of indicators. Each component of an index is weighted according to its value in forecasting or identifying short-term movements in aggregate economic activity. he components are standardized so that each has, aside from its weight, an equal opportunity to influence the index. Each index is standardized so that its average month-to-month percent change is (without regard to sign). he composite indexes presented in this report are based on groups of indicators selected by timing. hus, there is an index of leading indicators, another of coincident indicators, and a third of lagging indicators. In addition, there are five indexes based on leading indicators which have been grouped by economic process. hese indexes indicate the underlying cyclical trends of each group of indicators and the relative magnitude of their short-term changes. he index of 2 leading indicators has been "reverse trend adjusted" so that its long-run trend parallels that of the coincident index. his facilitates comparisons among the leading, coincident, \s^ Economic \. rocess EMLOYMEN AND UNEMLOYMEN ( series) RODUCION, INCOME, CONSUMION, AND RADE (9 series) Ml. FIXED CAIAL INVESMEN (4 series) V. INVENORIES AND INVENORY INVESMEN (9 series) V RICES, COSS, AND ROFIS (4 series) V. MONEY AND CREDI (2 series) Cyclical N. iming Nv LEADING INDICAORS (4 series) Marginal employment adjustments (5 series) Formation of business enterprises (2 series) New investment commitments (8 series) Inventory investment and purchasing (7 series) Sensitive commodity prices ( series) Stock prices ( series) rofits and profit margins (5 series) Cash flows (2 series) Flows of money and credit (7 series) Credit difficulties (2 series) ROUGHLY COINCIDEN INDICAORS (26 series) Job vacancies ( series) Comprehensive employment ( series) Comprehensive unemployment ( series) Comprehensive production ( series) Comprehensive income {2 series) Comprehensive consumption and trade (4 series) Backlog of investment commitments (2 series) Comprehensive wholesale prices (2 series) Bank reserves ( series) Interest rates (5 series) LAGGING INDICAORS ( series) Long-duration unemployment ( series) Investment expenditures (2 series) Inventories (2 series) Unit labor costs ( series) Outstanding debt (2 series) Interest rates ( series)

13 and lagging indexes and tends to shorten the leads of the leading index at business cycle peaks while lengthening them at troughs; it also reduces the variability of the leads and lags. SECION C ANICIAIONS AND INENIONS Most businessmen and many individual consumers have some type of plans as to their major economic activities in the near future. Information on these plans is regarded as a valuable aid to economic forecasting either directly or as an indication of the state of confidence concerning the economic outlook. In recent years, much progress has been made in compiling such information, and a number of surveys by various organizations and government agencies ascertain anticipations and intentions of businessmen and consumers. he results of some of these surveys, expressed as time series, are presented in this section of the report. he business analyst who uses these series should be aware of their limitations. hese data reflect only the respondents' anticipations (what they expect others to do) or intentions (what they plan to do), not firm commitments. Among both businessmen and consumers, some responses may not be very reliable; that is, the plans may be conjectural or the respondent may make little effort to reply accurately to the survey questions. Also, many plans are subject to modification or even complete abandonment due to unforeseen and uncontrollable developments. In some cases, the anticipations (or intentions) may have a systematic bias; for example, the anticipations (or intentions) data may tend to be lower than the subsequent actual data under certain economic conditions and higher under other conditions. Sometimes they merely project what has already occurred and hence appear to lag behind actual changes. Actual data are included in this section to indicate their historical relationship to the anticipations and intentions. Some of the series are diffusion indexes, a concept explained in the description for section E. SECION D OHER KEY INDICAORS Many economic series are available which, although not included in the three main sections of the report, are nevertheless important for an overall view of the economy. his section presents a number of such series, though by no means a comprehensive selection. In general, these series reflect processes which are not direct measures of economic activity but which do have a significant bearing on business conditions. he foreign trade and payments series include data on imports and exports and their balance, export orders, and the balance of payments. Many of the components of the balance-of-payments accounts are shown. Some are charted in a manner which emphasizes the balance between receipts and expenditures for each component; for example, comparisons of exports of goods and services with imports of goods and services, and income on U.S. investments abroad with payments on foreign investments in the United States. In addition, balances are shown for U.S. Government grants and capital transactions and for capital transactions of the private sector (banks and U.S. residents other than banks). Finally, cumulative changes are shown for other components; for example, U.S. liquid liabilities to all foreigners and U.S. official reserve assets. he Federal Government activities series include Federal receipts and expenditures, and their balance, and selected defense activities. he receipts and expenditures data are from the national income and product accounts. he defense series are only a few of the many available. For a more comprehensive picture of defense activities, see Defense Indicators, a monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis publication. hree other groups of series are included in this section. he price movements series consist of consumer and wholesale price indexes and their major components. he series on wages and productivity include measures of hourly earnings and output per man-hour and also rates of change for most of these measures. he final group of series measures the civilian labor force and its major components, including unemployment rates for selected segments of the labor force. SECION E ALYICAL MEASURES his section begins by comparing gross national product in constant dollars with a measure of potential GN. In effect, these two series reflect the relationship between the economy's productive capacity and total demand, the excess of potential over actual GN indicating the degree to which potentially productive resources are not fully utilized. he measure of potential GN, developed by the Council of Economic Advisers in the early 96's, takes into account increases in both available man-hours and output per man-hour. he NBER list of cyclical indicators includes some series which measure the relationship between different economic variables (for example, the series on labor cost per unit of output). here are, however, additional analytical ratios which have proven useful in evaluating business conditions and prospects. A number of such ratios are shown in the second part of this section. he third part presents a selection of diffusion indexes. Many series in this report are aggregates compiled from a number of components. A diffusion index is a summary measure expressing, for a particular aggregate, the percentage of components rising over a given timespan (half of the unchanged components are considered rising). Cyclical changes in diffusion indexes tend to lead those of the corresponding aggregates. Since diffusion indexes are highly erratic, long-term (6- or 9-month span) indexes are used to indicate underlying trends and short-term (- month span) indexes are used to show recent developments. Most of the indexes are constructed from components of series shown in section B, and these indexes have the same identification numbers as the corresponding aggregates. he diffusion indexes are classified by the cyclical timing of the aggregates to which they relate. Recent data and directions of change for many of the components are shown in table E4. he final part (E5) presents, in chart form, rates of change for a selected group of economic series. ercent changes are shown for - and -month spans or for -quarter spans. SECION F Lit. INERIOL COMARISONS Because this report is designed as an aid to the analysis of U.S. business conditions, all previous sections are based on data which relate directly to that purpose. But many business analysts examine economic developments in other important countries with a view to their impact on the United States. his section is provided to facilitate a quick review of basic economic conditions in six of the nations with which we have important trade relationships. Data on consumer prices, industrial production, and stock prices are shown for Canada, the United Kingdom, France, West Germany, Japan, and Italy and are compared with the corresponding U.S. series. Also included is an industrial production index for the European countries in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. he industrial production series provide a comprehensive measure of output and the consumer price indexes measure an important sector of prices, while stock prices tend to be important as leading indicators. In this section, the U.S. business cycle shading has been omitted from the charts.

14 HOW O READ CHARS eak () of cycle indicates end of expansion and beginning of Recession (shaded areas) as designated by NBER. f Basic Data rough () of cycle indicates end of recession and beginning of Expansion as designated by NBER. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Arabic number indicates latest month for which data are plotted. ("6" = ) Solid line indicates monthly data. (Data may be actual monthly figures or MCD moving averages.*) i Roman number indicates latest ^quarter for which data are r plotted. ("IV" = fourth quarter) Dotted line indicates anticipated Broken line indicates actual monthly data for series where an MCD moving average* is plotted. arallel lines indicate a break in continuity (data not available, changes in series definitions, extreme values, etc.). Solid line with plotting points in dicates quarterly data. Various scales are used to highlight the patterns of the individual series. "Scale A" is an arithmetic scale, "scale L-l" is a logarithmic scale with cycle in a given distance, "scale L-2" is a logarithmic scale with 2 cycles in that distance, etc. he scales should be carefully noted because they show whether the plotted lines for various series are directly comparable. Scale shows percent of components rising. Solid line indicates monthly data over 6- or 9-month spans. Broken line indicates monthly data over -month spans. Solid line with plotting points indicates quarterly data over various spans. *Many of the more irregular series are shown in terms of their MCD moving averages as well as their actual monthly data. In such cases, the 4-, 5-, or 6-term moving averages are plotted l ^, 2, or 2y 2 months, respectively, behind the actual data. See appendix A for a description of MCD moving averages. Arabic number indicates latest month for which data are used in computing the indexes. ("6" = ) number indicates latest quarter for which data are used in computing the indexes. ("I" = first quarter) Broken line with plotting points indicates quarterly data over various spans. NOE: Some of the charts of anticipations and intentions data (section C) and balance of payments data (section D) do not conform to the above method of presentation. Deviations are adequately explained as they occur. HOW O LOCAE A SERIES. See ALHABEICAL INDEX-SERIES FINDING GUIDE in the back of the report where series are arranged alphabetically according to subject matter and key words and phrases of the series titles, or 2. See ILES AND SOURCES OF SERIES where series are listed in numerical order according to series numbers within each of the Digest's six sections.

15 able. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for rincipal Indicators Basic data ercent change Series title Unit of measure 972 Average st Q 974 2dQ 974 dq 974 4th Q 974 st Q 2dQ dq to 4th Q 974 4th Q to st Q st Q to 2dQ A. IOL INCOME AND RODUC A. Gross National roduct 2. GN in current dollars 25. GN in 958 dollars 2. Implicit price deflator 25. er capita GN in current dollars 27. er capita GN in 958 dollars.. Ann.rate, bil.dol. do 958= Ann. rate, dol.. do /544 / /54 / /592 / /429 / /57 / /677 / /7 / /652 / /78 / A2. National and ersonal Income 22. National income, current dollars 222. ersonal income, current dollars 224. Disposable personal income, current dollars Disposable personal income, 958 dollars er capita disposable personal income, current dollars 227. er capita disposable pers. income, 958 dol. Ann.rate, bil.dol. do.do..do. Ann. rate, dol. do /84 2/ /295 2/ , /62 2/ /497 2/ /565 2/ /68 2/ /745 2/ /768 2/ /56 2/ , A. ersonal Consumption Expenditures 2. otal, current dollars 2. otal, 958 dollars 22. Durable goods, current dollars 2. Durable goods, exc. autos, current dollars 24. Automobiles, current dollars 26. Nondurable goods, current dollars 27. Services, current dollars Ann.rate, bil.dol. do.do..do..do. do do , , A4. Gross rivate Domestic Investment 24. Gross private domestic investment, total 24. Fixed investment total nonresidential 242. Fixed investment, nonresidential structures. 24. Fixed investment, producers' durable equip Fixed investment, residential structures 245. Change in business inventories, total 2 Ann.rate, bil.dol. do do do do do , , b 6. ^ A5. Foreign rade 25. Net exports of goods and services Exports 25. Imports Ann.rate, bil.dol. do do A6. Government urchases of Goods and Services 26. otal 262. Federal 264. National defense 266. State and local Ann.rate, bil.dol. do do do , , , , A7. Final Sales and Inventories 27. Final sales, durable goods 27. Change in business inventories, dur. goods Final sales, nondurable goods 275. Change in bus. inventories, nondur. goods 2 Ann.rate, bil.dol. do do ,2 8, A8. National Income Components 28. Compensation of employees 28Z roprietors' income 284. Rental income of persons 286. Corporate profits and inventory valuation adj Net interest A9. Saving Ann.rate, bil.dol. do do.do...do co -r J * J f\c\ OU Ao A O<. O ,6 26.8,4 AS O OJ, Gross saving, total 292. ersonal saving 294. Undistributed corporate profits plus inventory valuation adjustment 296. Capital consumption allowances 298. Government surplus or deficit, total 2 Ann.rate, bil.dol. do do do do , , bl.o,ma A. Real GN (958 dollars) 27. Final sales, 958 dollars 246. Change in bus. inventories, 958 dollars Fixed investment, nonresidential, 958 dollars Fixed investment, residential struc, 958 dol Gross auto product, 958 dollars 26. Federal Government purchases of goods and services, 958 dollars 267. State and local government purchases of goods and services, 958 dollars Ann.rate, bil.dol. do do do do.do..do , , , E. Actual and otential GN 27. GN gap (potential less actual), 958 dol. 2 Ann.rate, bil.dol

16 6 able. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for rincipal Indicators Continued Series title Unit of measure Average th Q 974 Basic data st Q 2dQ Apr. Apr. to ercent change to 4th Q to st Q st Q to 2dQ B. CYCLICAL INDICAORS B7. Composite Indexes 2 leading indicators: New index, original trend New index, reverse trend adjusted Old index, reverse trend adj. (8) coincident indicators coincident indicators, deflated 8. 6 lagging indicators do...do...do...do...do b l.v d b 8 LEADING INDICAOR SECORS 8. Marginal employment adjustments Capital investment commitments Inventory investment and purchasing 86. rofitability 87. Sensitive financial flows.do..do..do..do , b MA HA C C b.8. N A ivia b B. Employment and Unemployment LEADING INDICAORS Marginal Employment Adjustments: *. Average workweek, prod, workers, mfg. 2. Average weekly overtime hours, production workers, manufacturing Accession rate, manufacturing 2 *5. Average weekly initial claims, State unemployment insurance (inverted 4 ).. Layoff rate, manufacturing (inverted 4 ) 2 Hours.do. er employ. housands er employ. 4C ? C i.e ROUGH L Y COINCIDEN INDICA ORS Job Vacancies: 46. Help-wanted advertising 967= Comprehensive Employment: 48. Man-hours in nonagricultural establishments. *4. Employees on nonagricultural payrolls. 42. ersons engaged in nonagri. activities.. Ann. rate, billion man-hours housands do , ,7 82, b,2 82, ,768 8, ,47 8,9^ ,49 8, ,49 8,8Q ,464 8, Comprehensive Unemployment: *4. Unemployment rate, total (inverted 4 ) Average weekly insured unemployment rate (inverted 4 ) 2 4. Unemployment rate, married males (inverted 4 ) 2 ercent O.o LAGGING INDICAORS Long Duration Unemployment: *44. Unemployment rate, 5 weeks and over (inverted 4 ) fa O.b 44 B2. roduction, Income, Consumption, and rade ROUGHL Y COINCIDEN INDICAORS Comprehensive roduction: *2. GN in current dollars *25. GN in 958 dollars *47. Industrial production Ann.rate, bil.dol. do 967= Comprehensive Income: *52. ersonal income 5. Wages, salaries in mining, mfg., construction. Ann.rate, bil.dol. do Comprehensive Consumption and rade: *56. Manufacturing and trade sales 57. Final sales *54. Sales of retail stores 59. Sales of retail stores, deflated Bil.dol.., Ann.rate, bil.dol. Mil.dol do ,94, ,786, ,, ,2, ,649, ,72, ,V5,67 48,285, B. Fixed Capital Investment LEADING INDICAORS Formation of Business Enterprises: *2. Index of net business formation. New business incorporations = Number , , , ,54i.4 26, , New Investment Commitments: *6. New orders, durable goods industries 8. Construction contracts, total value *. Contracts and orders for plant, equipment.. New capital appropriations, manufacturing. 24. New orders, cap. goods indus., nondefense. 9. Construction contracts, commercial and industrial buildings 28. New private housing units started, total... *29. New building permits, private housing Bil. dol 967= Bil.dol do do Mil. sq. feet floor space... Ann. rate, thous 967= , , , *. 5.74, hO , , , I\A ROUGHL Y COINCIDEN INDICA ORS Backlog of Investment Commitments: 96. Unfilled orders, durable goods industries Backlog of capital appropriations, mfg Bil. dol., EO. do ' ,5 7,? U b t\ A 96 97

17 able. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for rincipal Indicators Continued Basic data ercent change Series title Unit of measure 97 Average 974 4th Q 974 st Q 2dQ Apr. Apr. to to 4th Q to st Q st Q to 2dQ B. CYCLICAL INDICAORS-Con. B. Fixed Capital Investment-Con. LAGGING INDICAORS Investment Expenditures: *6. Business expend., new plant and equip 69. Machinery and equipment sales and business construction expenditures Ann.rate, bil.dol. do all MA , B4. Inventories and Inventory Investment LEADING INDICAORS Inventory Investment and urchasing: 245. Change in bus. inventories, all indus. 2 *. Change, mfg. and trade inven., book value urchased materials, percent reporting higher inventories 2 2. Change in mfrs.' inventories of materials, supplies, book value Buying policy, production materials, commitments 6 days or longer 2 2. Vendor performance, percent reporting slower deliveries Chg. in unfilled orders, dur. goods indus. 2.. Ann.rate, bil.dol. do ercent Ann.rate, bil.dol. ercent do Bil. dol MA 29 MA , , LAGGING INDICAORS Inventories: *7. Mfg. and trade inventories, book value Mfrs.'inven. of finished goods, book value 5. I. dol., EO do MA MA B5. rices, Costs, and rofits LEADING INDICAORS Sensitive Commodity rices: *2. Industrial materials prices Stock rices: *9. Stock prices, 5 common stocks rofits and rofit Margins: *6. Corporate profits, after taxes, current dol Corporate profits, after taxes, 958 dollars Ratio, profits to income originating in corporate business 2 5. rofits (after taxes) per dol. of sales, mfg. 2.. *7. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, mfg 4. Net cash flow, corporate, current dollars 5. Net cash flow, corporate, 958 dollars Ann.rate, bil.dol. do ercent Cents 967= Ann.rate, bil.dol. do MA MA 2.8 MA 84, ROUGHL Y COINCIDEN INDICA ORS Comprehensive Wholesale rices: 55. Wholesale prices, industrial commodities. 55c. Chg. in whsle. prices, indus. commod., S/A Wholesale prices, manufactured goods = ercent 967= , LAGGING INDICAORS Unit Labor Costs: 6. Unit labor cost, total private economy 68. Labor cost per unit of gross product, nonfinancial corporations *62. Labor cost per unit of output, mfg do Dollars 967= I B6. Money and Credit LEADING INDICAORS Flows of Money and Credit: 85. Change in money supply (M ) 2 2. Change in money supply plus time deposits at commercial banks (M2) 2. Change in money supply plus time deposits at banks and nonbank institutions (M) 2. Change in mortgage debt 2 2. Change in business loans 2 *. Change in consumer installment debt 2. otal private borrowing Credit Difficulties: 4. Liabilities of business failures (inverted 4 ).. 9. Delinquency rate, installment loans (inv. 4 ) 2 5. ROUGHL Y COINCIDEN INDICA ORS Bank Reserves: 9. Free reserves (inverted 4 ) 2 Interest Rates: 9. Federal funds rate 2 4. reasury bill rate 2 6. Corporate bond yields reasury bond yields 2!.. 7. Municipal bond yields 2.. Ann.rate.percent. do do Ann.rate, bil.dol. do do do Mil. dol ercent, EO ercent do.do..do..do , , , , C , , -. -, , , ,47,

18 8 able. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for rincipal Indicators Continued Series title Unit of measure 97 Average 974 4th Q 974 st Q Basic data 2dQ Apr. Apr. to ercent change to 4th Q to stq st Q to 2dQ B. CYCLICAL INDICAORS-Con. B6. Money and Credit-Con. LAGGING INDICAORS Outstanding Debt: 66. Consumer installment debt 5 *72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding. Bil.dol., EO. Bil.dol , , Interest Rates: 9. Average prime rate charged by banks 2 *67. Bank rates on short-term business loans Mortgage yields, residential 2 ercent... do. do ,98 9,94 8, MA D. OHER KEY INDICAORS D. Foreign rade 5. Merchandise trade balance Exports, excluding military aid 56. Export orders, dur. goods exc. motor vehicles. 58. Export orders, nonelectrical machinery 52. General imports Mil. dol. do. 967= Mil. dol /95 2/4 89 5/ ,66 / , ,66, / 696 8,972, , /57 /9 94 8/ /52 8/45 / / , IN A D2. U.S. Balance of ayments 25. Balance on goods and services Bal. on goods, services, and remittances Balance on current account Balance on curr. acct. and long-term capital Net liquidity balance Official reserve transactions balance 2 Mil. dol. do. do. do. do. do. 4/ /9 -/28 / /72-4,76-2/ /57-7/75-4,855,44 2,886 2,48-475,7 -,22 2,425 2,46 2,7 6,98,796, D. Federal Government Activities 6. Federal surplus or deficit, NIA 2 6. Federal receipts, NIA 62. Federal expenditures, NIA 264. National defense purchases 66. Defense Department obligations, total 62. Defense Department obligations, procurement 648. New orders, defense products 625. Military contract awards in U.S Ann.rate, bil.dol. do do do Mil. dol do Bil.dol Mil. dol /85 /57.7 2/954-8, /75 /74,9 /457-24,5 294,7 9, 84, 7/99 /742.8 / ,78 /76.8,499 N'A /952 /425,64 4/22 8/25 /85.66 / , , IMA D4. rice Movements 2. Fixed wtd. price index, gross priv. product Consumer prices, all items. 78c.Change in consumer prices, all items, S/A Wholesale prices, all commodities 958=. 967=. ercent = , , , D5. Wages and roductivity 74. Average hourly earnings, production workers in private nonfarm economy 74. Real average hourly earnings, production workers in private nonfarm economy 859. Real spendable avg. weekly earnings, nonagri. prod, or nonsupv. workers 745. Avg. hourly compensation, private nonfarm Real avg. hourly comp., private nonfarm 77. Output per man-hour, total private economy Output per man-hour, total private nonfarm.. do. do. 967 dol.. 967=. do. do. do ,8.8 5,2, , , -, D6. Civilian Labor Force and Major Components 84. otal civilian labor force 842. otal civilian employment 84. Number of persons unemployed (inverted) 4. housands do. do. 88/76 84/4 4/6 9, 85,96 5,76 9,785 85,72 6,5 9,8 84,46 7,664 92,54 84, 8,2 92/262 84/86 8/76 92,94 64,42 8,58 92/4 84,444 7/ E. ALYICAL MEASURES E2. Analytical Ratios 85. Ratio, output to capacity, manufacturing Ratio, inventories to sales, mfg. and trade Ratio, unfilled orders to shipments, manufacturers' durable goods industries 85. Ratio, prod., bus. equip, to consumer goods 854. Ratio, personal savings to disposable personal income 86. Ratio, help-wanted advertising to persons unemployed 857. Vacancy rate in total rental housing ercent. Ratio.. do =... Ratio do ercent , , ,8-5, NOE: Series are seasonally adjusted except for those indicated by, which appear to contain no seasonal movement. 'Series included in the 966 NBER "short list" of indicators. = not available, a = anticipated. EO = end of period. S/A=seasonally adjusted (used for special emphasis). For complete series titles (including composition of composite indexes) and sources, see "itles and Sources of Series" in the back of BCD. For a few series, data shown here have been rounded to fewer digits than those shown in the tables in part II. Where available, annual figures are those published by the source agencies; otherwise, they (and the quarterly figures for monthly series) are averages of the data as shown in part II. differences rather than percent changes are shown for this series. For the latest month, new indexes are based on 9 components, old index on 8. *Inverted series. Since this series tends to move counter to movements in general business activity, signs of the changes are reversed. 5 End-of-period series. he annual figures (and quarterly figures for monthly series) are the last figures for the period.

19 Section IOL INCOME AND RODUC Chart Al GROSS IOL RODUC () (Aug.) () (Apr.) () (Feb.) (Nov.) (Nov.) s_ in current dollars, (am. rate, Ml. dot. r 25. GN in 958 dollars, tt(m rate, ML dol.) 2. Implicit price 25. er capita GN in current dollars, Q (am. rate, thous. dot.) 27. er capita GU in 958 dollars, ft (am. rate, MIS. eei.) Current data for these series are shown on page 69. JULY

20 Section A Chart A2 IOL INCOME AND RODUC IOL AND ERSOL INCOME () (Aug.) () (Apr.) () (Feb.) (Nov.) (Nov.) National income, current dollars, 224. Disposable personal income; current dollars, ann. rate, Ml. dot Disposable personal dollars, Q (ann. rate, 226. er capita disposable personal income, current (ann. rate, Uious. dol.) 227. er capita 958 dollars, Q (ann. I income, thous. dol.) Current data for these series are shown on page 69. JULY ItCII

21 Section A Chart A IOL INCOME AND RODUC ERSOL CONSUMION EXENDIURES () (Aug.) () (Apr.) () (Feb.) (Nov.) (Nov.) Durable goods, total excluding automobiles, Current data for these series are shown on page 7. KCII JULY

22 Section A Chart A4 IOL INCOME AND RODUC GROSS RIVAE DOMESIC INVESMEN () (Aug.) fill Hill HISS? ; : ii i fffpf lit I () (Apr.) ftfififjll () (Feb.) IStfn; nisi omestic iavestme ;. ;. : ;^ Iliiil 24. otal, B (Nov.) (Nov.) liim Amual rate, billion dollars (canerrt) : ; : : i f c ^ ^ : :: : : ]g^f : ~* **v :,>^"' / \ Nonresidential fixed investment, total, Q 242. Nonresidential structures, Q 24. roducers' durable equipment, I Current data for these series are shown on page 7. 2 JULY ItCII

23 ItCIt JULY Section A Chart A5 IOL INCOME AND RODUC FOREIGN RADE () (Aug.) () (Apr.) () (Feb.) (Nov.) (Nov.) miiii 25. Net exports of goods and services, 252. Exports of goods and services, Q 25. Imports of goods and services, Q Current data for these series are shown on page 7.

24 Section A Chart A6 IOL INCOME AND RODUC GOVERNMEN URCHASES OF GOODS AND SERVICES () (Aug.) () (Apr.) () (Feb.) (Nov.) (Nov.) 266. State and local governments, Q mm Current data for these series are shown on page 7. 4 JULY ItCII

25 Section A Chart A7 IOL INCOME AND RODUC FIL SALES AND INVENORIES () (Aug.) () (Feb.) (Nov.) (Nov.) 27. Final sales, durable goods, Q 27. Change in business inventories, durable goods, Q Current data for these series are shown on page 7. YAW JULY 5

26 Section A Chart A8 IOL INCOME AND RODUC IOL INCOME COMONENS () (Aug.) () (Apr.) () (Feb.) (Nov.) (Nov.) 284. Rental income of persons, Q Corporate profits and inventory valuaufld_ailillslmfilll_q Current data for these series are shown on pages 7 and JULY ItCII

27 Section A Chart A9 IOL INCOME AND RODUC SAVING () (Aug.) () (Apr.) () (Feb.) (Nov.) (Nov.) 294. Undistributed corporate profits plus 296. Capital consumption allowances, Q 298. Government surplus or deficit, Current data for these series are shown on page 72. JULY 7

28 Section A Chart A IOL INCOME AND RODUC REAL GROSS IOL RODUC (),m (Aug.) gmjjgi () (Apr.)... HISS. () (Feb.) olsiii (Nov.) (Nov.) 248. Fixed investment, residential structures, Current data for these series are shown on pages 69, 7, and JULY ItCII

29 BCII JULY 9 Section A Chart All IOL INCOME AND RODUC SHARES OF GN AND IOL INCOME Gross National roduct Shares () (Aug.) () (Apr.) () (Feb.) (Nov.) (Nov.) ercent 7-i 2A. ersona! consumption expenditures as percent of GN, Q 65-6 J 2-i Federal Government paxhases A Fixed investment, nonresidgntial 266A. State and local government purchases of goods and services 5- - i 244A. Fixed investment, residential structures as percent of GN, 5-245A. Change in business inventories as percent of GN, 25A. Net exports of goods and services - as percent of GN, Q J National Income Shares 8- of employees as percent of national income, 65 J 286A. Corporate profits and adjustment as percent J Current data for these series are shown on page 7.

30 Section CYCLICAL INDICAORS Economic rocess and Cyclical iming Chart Bl Leading Indicators EMLOYMEN AND UNEMLOYMEN () (Aug.) () (Apr.) () (Feb.) (Nov.) (Nov.) i Accession rate, manufacturing (per employees) A Layoff rate, manufacturing (per employees inverted scale) Current data for these series are shown on page JULY ItCII

31 Section B Chart Bl CYCLICAL INDICAORS Economic rocess and Cyclical iming EMLOYMEN AND UNEMLOYMEN Con. Roughly Coincident Indicators () (Aug.) () (Apr.) (Nov.) (Nov.) wanted advertising (index: 967-) in nonagncultural establishments (ann. rate, bil Employees on nonagricultural payrolls (millions) 42. ersons engaged in nonagricultural activities (millions) Current data for these series are shown on pages 74 and 75. ItCIt JULY 2

32 22 JULY Section B Chart Bl CYCLICAL INDICAORS Economic rocess and Cyclical iming EMLOYMEN AND UNEMLOYMEN Con. Roughly Coincident Indicators Con. () (Aug.) () (Apr.) () (Feb.) (Nov.) (Nov.) 4. Unemployment rate, total (percent inverted scale) Average weekly insured unemployment rate (percent-inverted scale) - 4. Unemployment rate, married males i%cert--ii»erted scale) Lagging Indicators Long-Duration Unemployment *44. Uno^jloyment rate, persons unemployed IS weeks and over Current data for these series are shown on page 75.

33 Section B CYCLICAL INDICAORS Economic rocess and Cyclical iming Chart B2 RODUCION, INCOME, CONSUMION, AND RADE Roughly Coincident Indicators EN in esrrent dollars, Q (ani. rate, «!.Art NOE: For this economic process (i.e., roduction, Income, Consumption, and rade), no leading or lagging indicators have as yet been selected Current data for these series are shown on page JULY 2

34 Section B CYCLICAL INDICAORS Economic rocess and Cyclical iming Chart B2 RODUCION, INCOME, CONSUMION, AND RADE Con. Roughly Coincident Indicators Con. () (Aug.) () (Apr.) () (Feb.) (Nov.) (Nov.) NOE: For this economic process (i.e., roduction Income, Consumption, and rade), no leading or lagging indicators have as yet been selected. Current data for these series are shown on page JULY lt l>

35 Section B Chart B CYCLICAL INDICAORS Economic rocess and Cyclical iming FIXED CAIAL INVESMEN Leading Indicators () (Aug.) () (Apr.) () (Feb.) (Nov.) (Nov.). New business incorporations (thousands) mil lit Illii Vfl r^ : : mi 8. Construction contracts, total value (index: 967=; j D nmriitg avg. S-terni)* - : ««tm ilh WL Wm,\ o ( 5- - *\l 8-i *. Contracts and orders, plant and equipment (Ml. dot.) J 'his is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F.W. Dodge Division. Current data for these series are shown on page 77. I JULY 25

36 Section B CYCLICAL INDICAORS Economic rocess and Cyclical iming Chart B FIXED CAIAL INVESMEN Con. Leading Indicators Con. () (Aug.) () (Apr.) () (Feb.). New capital appropriations, Mew private housing units started, total (ann. rate, millions; MCD moving avg.--4-term) - -*-- buildmg permits, private bousing units (index: 967*).8 J I 'his is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from the source agency. Current data for these series are shown on pages 77 and JULY ItCII

37 Section B CYCLICAL INDICAORS Economic rocess and Cyclical iming Chart B FIXED CAIAL INVESMEN Con. Roughly Coincident Indicators () (Aug.) () (Apr.) () (Feb.) (Nov.) (Nov.) Backlog of Investment Commitments 96. Mwtfacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries (Ml. dol 97. Backlog of capital appropriations, manufacturing, (oil. dol) Lagging Indicators Investment Expenditures *6. Business expenditures, new plant and 69. Machinery and equipment sales and business construction expenditures (ann. rate, bit. dol.) " his is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from he Conference Board. Current data for these series are shown on page 78. JULY 27

38 Section B CYCLICAL INDICAORS Economic rocess and Cyclical iming Chart B4 INVENORIES AND INVENORY INVESMEN Leading Indicators () (Aug.) lip;- H'""" 9 () (Apr.) "" MB" ' : () (Feb.) Change in business inventories, Q (ann. rate, bil. del.) (Nov.) (Nov.). Chanee in book value, manufacturing and trade inventories rate, MI. dot.; MCD moving avg.-6-term) materials, percent of companies reporting higher in hook value, manufacturers' inventories of materials and bil. dot.; MCD moving avg.-6-term) materials, percent of companies Current data for these series are shown on pages 78 and JULY IICII

39 Section B Chart B4 CYCLICAL INDICAORS Economic rocess and Cyclical iming INVENORIES AND INVENORY INVESMEN Con. Leading Indicators Con. () (Aug.) () (Apr.) () (Feb.) (Nov.) (Nov.) performance, percent of companies reporting slower - ^ Itiiiiii-, :.: SJStiSss»tf : 9 Change in unfilled orders, durable goods Industrie^ Hi % Lagging Indicators iiiiitifc -fjlljf. l *n. [ value, manufacturing and trade inventories ilium Jllttll iiliill:, JHIijiil::: J NOE: For this economic process (i.e., Inventories and Inventory Investment), no roughly coincident indicators have as yet been selected. Current data for these series are shown on page 79. BCII JULY 29

40 Section B Chart B5 CYCLICAL INDICAORS Economic rocess and Cyclical iming RICES, COSS, AND ROFIS Leading Indicators () (Aug.) () (Apr.) materials prices (index: 967=) (Nov.) (Nov.) *9. Stock 'is ^- w& %$?/& rofits and rofit Margins Corporate profits after toes, B ( m rate, bil. dol.) *I H i Current dollaii unfits (after taxes) to income originating ** corporate bustoss, (pereeit) dollar of sales, nunrfactaring, Q (cents) mi. if}7. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, manufacturing (index: 967=) Current data for these series are shown on pages 79 and 8. JULY IICII

41 BCII JULY Section B CYCLICAL INDICAORS Economic rocess and Cyclical iming Chart B5 RICES, COSS, AND ROFIS Con. Leading Indicators Con. () (Aug.) () (Apr.) () (Feb.) (Nov.) (Nov.) 4. Net cash flow, corporate, current dollars, Q (ann. rate, Ml. del.) 5. Net cask flow, corporate, 958 dollars, Q (ann. rate, bil. dol. Roughly Coincident Indicators Comprehensive Wholesale rices 55, Wholesale prices/industrial commodities (index: 967=) i mm Wholesale prices, manufactured goods (index: 967=) J I B Current data for these series are shown on page 8.

42 Section B Chart B5 CYCLICAL INDICAORS Economic rocess and Cyclical iming RICES, COSS, AND ROFIS-Con. Lagging Indicators () (Aug.) (Nov.) (Nov.) 6. lndex Q (967 6c. Change over -quarter spans, (ann. rate, (curr. dol.) per unit of real corporate product, Q (dollars) *62. Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing Current data for these series are shown on page 8. 2 JULY ItCII

43 Section B CYCLICAL INDICAORS Economic rocess and Cyclical iming Chart B6 MONEY AND CREDI Leading Indicators () (Aug.) IRS #? : J. lit () (Apr.) () (Feb.) (Nov.) (Nov.) supply (Ml) (ann. rate, percent; MCD moving avg. i. Change in money supply plus time deposits at commercial illrt^;^ in money supply plus time deposits at banks and institutions (M) (ann. rale, percent; moving avg.-6-. Change in mortgage debt (ann. rate, bil. dol 2. Change in business loans (ann. rate,_bljoli MCD moving avg.--6-term) Current data for these series are shown on page 8. yen JULY

44 Section B CYCLICAL INDICAORS Economic rocess and Cyclical iming Chart B6 MONEY AND CREDI Con. Leading Indicators Con. () (Aug.) () (Apr.) () (Feb.) (Nov.) (Nov.) otal private borrowing, Q (ann. rate, ML M) rate, days and over, total Iment leans (percent-inverted scale) Current data for these series are shown on page 8. 4 JULY IU II

45 BCII JULY 5 Section B CYCLICAL INDICAORS Economic rocess and Cyclical iming Chart B6 MONEY AND CREDI Con. Roughly Coincident Indicators () (Aug.) () (Apr.) (Nov.) (Nov.) 9. Free reserves (lit. dol. inverted scale) 7. Municipal bbrtfl yifelfls (percent) Current data for these series are shown on page 82.

46 Section B Chart B6 CYCLICAL INDICAORS Economic rocess and Cyclical iming MONEY AND CREDI Con. Lagging Indicators () (Aug.) () (Apr.) () (Feb.) (Nov.) (Nov.) Consumer installment debt (oil. dol Commercial mi industrial loans outstanding, weekly reporting large commercial hanks (hil. dol jprage prime rate charged by banks (percent) 7- - *67. Bank rates on short-term business loans, Q (percent) 9- ' I Mortgage yields, residential (percent) JULY Ittll

47 Section B Chart B7 CYCLICAL INDICAORS Selected Indicators by iming COMOSIE INDEXES Coincident and Lagging Indicators (Nov.) (Oct.) () (Aug.) () (Apr.) () (Feb.) ix Jailing i«ic (series «/(JH, iy IS Imm I NOE: he new index of 2 leading indicators is shown on pages v and vii; the old leading index is shown on page 2. Current data for these series are shown on page 8. Numbers entered on the chart indicate length of leads (-) and lags H in months from reference turning dates. ItCII JULY 7

48 Section B Chart B7 CYCLICAL INDICAORS Selected Indicators by iming COMOSIE INDEXES Con. Leading Indicator Subgroups (Nov.) (Oct.) () (Aug.) () (Apr.) () (Feb.) (Nov.) (Nov.) ami purchasing (series 2,25,,7) Current data for these series are shown on page 8. 8 JULY ItCIt

49 Section B CYCLICAL INDICAORS Selected Indicators by iming Chart B8 NBER SHOR LIS Leading Indicators Net business formation (index: 967=) 6. New orders, durable goods industries (bil *». Contracts and orders, plant and equipwmt (bil. dol.) Current data for these series are shown on pages 74 and 77. ItCII JULY 9

50 Section B Chart B8 CYCLICAL INDICAORS Selected Indicators by iming NBER SHOR LIS Con. Leading Indicators Con. () (Aug.) () (Apr.) () (Feb.) (Nov.) (Nov.) *. Change took value, manufacturing and trafr inventories (ann. rate, fail. dol. ; MCD moving avg.-6 term) - J "948 m 5 5 b2 S Current data for these series are shown on pages 78 and JULY ItCII

51 Section B CYCLICAL INDICAORS Selected Indicators by iming Chart B8 NBER SHOR LIS Con. Leading Indicators Con. (Nov.) (Oct.) () (Aug.) () (Apr.) () (Feb.) (Nov.) (Nov.) profits after taxes, Q (ann. rate, bil. dol.) to unit labor cost, manufacturing (index: *. Chance in consumer installment debt (ann. rate Roughly Coincident Indicators on nonagncultural payrolls (millions) Current data for these series are shown on pages 75, 79, 8, and 8 ItCIt JULY 4

52 Section B Chart B8 CYCLICAL INDICAORS Selected Indicators by iming NBER SHOR LIS Con. Roughly Coincident Indicators Con. (Nov.) (Oct.) () (Aug.) () (Apr.) (Nov.) (Nov.) "2. GU in current dollars, Q (arm. ratejil GN in 958 dollars, Q ann. rate, bil. dol.) ial production (Index: 967=) income (ann. rate, bil. dol.) Manufacturing and trade sales of retail stores (bil. dol.) Current data for these series are shown on page JULY ItCIt

53 ItCII JULY 4 Section B CYCLICAL INDICAORS Selected Indicators by iming Chart B8 NBER SHOR LIS Con. Lagging Indicators (Nov.; (Oct IS weeks and over (percent-inverted. Business expeffllitures, new plant and equipment I value, manuring and inventories (bil. dol.) output, manufacturing (index: 987=) cial and industrial loans outstanding, commercial banks (bil business loans, Q (percent) Current data for these series are shown on pages 75, 78, 79, 8, and 82.

54 44 JULY Chart Cl AGGREGAE SERIES () (Apr.) () (Feb.) (Nov.) (Nov.) for new plant and equipment, all industries, 8 (a) Actual expenditures (ann. rate, Mi. (b) Second anticipations as percent of (c) First anticipations as percent of

55 Section C ANICIAIONS AND INENIONS Chart Cl AGGREGAE SERIES Con. () (Apr.) () (Feb.) (Nov.) (Nov.) 4. Manufacturers' sales, 42. Manufacturers'inventories, total book value, Q (bil. 44. Condition of manufacturers'inventories: percent considered high less percent # 46. Adequacy of manufacturers'capacity considered inadequate less percent.^ ovroccivo fl 45. Index of consumer sentiment, Q (st Current data for these series are shown on page 84. JULY 45

56 Section C ANICIAIONS AND INENIONS Chart C2 DIFFUSION INDEXES () (Apr.) () (Feb.) S. Bisiaess etpetditures for new plant mt D44. Hew orders, ibaaufacturine (4-Q span) Current data for these series are shown on pages 84 and 85. his is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. 46 JULY ItCII

57 Section C Chart C2 ANICIAIONS AND INENIONS DIFFUSION INDEXES Con. () (Apr.) () (Feb.) (Nov.) (Nov.) D462. Selling prices, manufacturing (4-Q span) 464. Selling prices, wholesale trade (4-Q D46S. Sel ing prices, retail trade (4- span) Current data for these series are shown on page 85. 'his is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Oun & Bradstreet, Inc ItCII JULY 47

58 Chart Dl FOREIGN RADE () (Aug.) () (Apr.) (Nov.) (Nov.) Current data for these series are shown on page JULY IICII

59 Section D Chart D2 OHER KEY INDICAORS BALANCE OF AYMENS AND MAJOR COMONENS () all : (Aug.) mslsfll it. ii. warn. i iii Ip lift mm HSfl lit IB I- I ih'.. Si ts limit' ail 258, Balance on 57. Ba () (Apr.) () (Feb.) Bt^S pupil! ; li Mi IIWliMi 59. Ba IH liupi Illi n HI ill ill HSi Illimmi m B ism Current data for these series are shown on page 87. ItCII JULY 49

60 Section D Chart D2 OHER KEY INDICAORS BALANCE OF AYMENS AND MAJOR COMONENS Con. () (Aug.) () (Apr.) () (Feb.) to ill foreigners, outstanding at end of period S2. Liquid and certain nonliquid liabilities foreign official agencies, outstanding J 54. U.S. official reserve assets-reserve position at end Current data for these series are shown on page 87. End-of-year figures are used prior to JULY ItCII

61 BCII JULY 5 Section D Chart D2 OHER KEY INDICAORS BALANCE OF AYMENS AND MAJOR COMONENS Con. () (Aug.) () (Apr.) () (Feb.) (Nov.) (Nov.) Goods and Services Movements, [Except ransfers Under Military Grants Ebcess of receipts Excess of payments Goods and services- 25. Balance on pods and services Investmiit income, military sales and expenfrifss, and otter servfces <> Current data for these series are shown on page 87. Annual totals are used prior tc 96.

62 Section D Chart D2 OHER KEY INDICAORS BALANCE OF AYMENS AND MAJOR COMONENS Con. () (Aug.) () (Apr.) () (Feb.) investment Income. Military Sales and Expenditures, and Other Service: EExcess if receipts (inflow) Excess if payments (outflow) Income on U.S. investments abroad ravel ayments by U.S. travelers abroad 4- WSISI Receipts from foreign travelers in the U.S. i isfiiful J Military sales amj expenditures. U.S. military expenditures abroad 4- st 546. Military sales to foreigners o-j J Current data for these series are shown on page 88. Annual totals are used prior to JULY IICII

63 Section D Chart D2 OHER KEY INDICAORS BALANCE OF AYMENS AND MAJOR COMONENS Con. () (Aug.) () (Apr.) () (Feb.) (Nov.) (Nov.) Exms of pajimts (wtfftw) - investments in the U.S. - Foreign purchases of U.S. securities and capital transactions, net - Si other capital transactions, net S J Current data for these series are shown on page 88. Annual totals are used prior to 96. ItCII JULY 5

64 Section D Chart D OHER KEY INDICAORS FEDERAL GOVERNMEN ACIVIIES () (Aug.) () (Apr.) () (Feb.) (Nov.) (Nov.) and product accounts, 6 (ann. rate, bil. dol Federal n f f p i n s, national income ant product accounts, (an. rate, Current data for these series are shown on page JULY BCII

65 Section D Chart D OHER KEY INDICAORS FEDERAL GOVERNMEN ACIVIIES Con. () (Aug.) () (Apr.) () (Feb.) (Nov.) (Nov.) obligations, total moving ayg.--6-tena) Defetse Department obligations, procurement (bil. dol.; MCD moving avg.-6-terra defense prodacts industries MCD moving avg. 6-ten) m lbkut MAM WH OflKfS, protects «l.«.; KB awanlsinu.s. KCD moving avg.~s-tera) Current data for these series are shown on page 89. BCD JULY 55

66 Section D Chart D4 OHER KEY INDICAORS RICE MOVEMENS () (Aug.) () (Apr.) Hi (Nov.) (Nov.) index, gross prate pralkt to 965), Q (index: 958=) price index, all itens (seasonally adj.) One-month percent changes have been multiplied by a constant (2) so that they may be shown against the background of the annualized changes over 6-month spans. See basic data table for actual -month percent changes. Current data for these series are shown on page JULY BCII

67 Section D OHER KEY INDICAORS Chart D4 RICE MOVEMENS Con. () (Aug.) () (Apr.) One-month percent changes have been multiplied by a constant (2) so that they may be shown against the background of the annualized changes over 6 month spans. See basic data table for actual -month percent changes. Current data for these series are shown on page 9. ItCII JULY 57

68 Section D Chart D5 OHER KEY INDICAORS WAGES AND RODUCIVIY () (Aug.) () (Apr.) () (Feb.) Average hourly earnings of production workers, private nonfana economy (annual data prior to 964) Curnwt dollar earnings (index: 967= 74. Real earnings (index spendable avg. weekly earnings or nonsupervisory workers (967 dollars) Average hourly compensation, all employees private nobfars economy 745. torrent dollar compensation, Q Current data for these series are shown on pages 92 and JULY ItCII

69 Section D Chart D5 OHER KEY INDICAORS WAGES AND RODUCIVIY Con. () (Aug.) () (Apr.) () (Feb.) lit if dhmgeiaavg. Hill private Six-month spans (ann. Change in avg. private 745c. Current dollar compensation une-quarter span (ann. rate) w- pflr span (ann. rate) 748. First year avg. changes, Q (ann. rate) Average changes over life 77c. Change in output per man-hour i * Four-qaarter span 'Adjusted for overtime (in manufacturing only) and interindustry employment shifts and seasonally. 2 One-month percent changes have been multiplied by a constant (2) so that they may be shown against the background of the annualized changes over 6-month spans. See basic data table for actual -month percent changes. Current data for these series are shown on pages 92 and 9. I JULY 59

70 Section D Chart D6 OHER KEY INDICAORS CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE AND MAJOR COMONENS () (Aug.) () (Apr.) () (Feb.) Current data for these series are shown on page JULY IICII

71 Chart El ACUAL AND OENIAL GROSS IOL RODUC () (Aug.) () (Apr.) () (Feb.) (Nov.) (Nov.) 94 - d otential GN Actual GH Current data for these series are shown on page 95. 'rend line of.5 percent per year (intersecting actual line in middle of 955) from st quarter 952 to 4th quarter 962,.75 percent from 4th quarter 962 to 4th quarter 965, and 4 percent from 4th quarter 965 to 2d quarter. See special note on page 95. ItCII JULY 6

72 62 JULY ItCII Section E Chart E2 ALYICAL MEASURES ALYICAL RAIOS () (Aug.) () (Apr.) () (Feb.) (Nov.) (Nov.) to sales, manyfacturine and trade (ratio) Ratio, BBfiiieo orders to snipisents tetmrs' dsrahle goods industries (ratio) of bisiness epinwt to ^'WMfcMm^fcUKfc\ ^4U>ftiV \tk Hl^^tMM^^l^\tk MftVAtfkMMl advertising to Mo) Current data for these series are shown on page 96.

73 ItCII JULY 6 Section E Chart E ALYICAL MEASURES DIFFUSION INDEXES Leading Indicators () (Aug.) () (Apr.) () (Feb.) workers, ^mfacturtag 2 Mstries New orders, teable goods industries--5 industries (9-mo. span r -mo. mmtmm appropriations--^ industries (-B span, -B, (Krcert repiing Wgher profits-about, raaudrijii stocks-6&-82 industries (9-mo. span prices hasfrial Materials (9-m. spaa, I7an«s (ptfttut leclinlit; 9HM 'his is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from he Conference Board. Current data for these series are shown on pages 97 and 98.

74 Section E Chart E ALYICAL MEASURES DIFFUSION INDEXES-Con. Roughly Coincident Indicators () (Aug.) () (Apr.) () (Feb.) (Nov.) (Nov.) I payrolls-fl industries (&-rao. span, -mo. production-24 industries (6-mo. span, -mo. manufactured goods--22 industries (6-mo. span J-mo. Sales of retail stores-2 types of stores (9-mo. span J-mo Current data for these series are shown on page JULY BCII

75 BCI» JULY 65 Section E ALYICAL MEASURES Chart E5 RAES OF CHANGE () (Apr.) () (Feb.) (Nov.) (Nov.) 25. ( GH in constant dollars (-Q span) 82. Composite index of 5 coincident indicators (series 4, 4,47,52, 48. Man-hoars ia BonagricaltDral establjshfflents o locate basic data for these rates of change, consult "Alphabetical Index-Series Finding Guide," pp

76 Section F INERIOL COMARISONS Chart Fl CONSUMER RICES () (Aug.) () (Apr.) () (Feb.) (Nov.) (Nov.) Consumer prices Current data for these series are shown on page. 66 JULY KCII

77 Section F Chart F2 INERIOL COMARISONS INDUSRIAL RODUCION () (Aug.) () (Apr.) () (Feb.) (Nov.) (Nov.) Industrial production ^r*w* >/> ' Current data for these series are shown on pages and 4. licit JULY 67

78 Section F Chart F INERIOL COMARISONS SOCK RICES () (Aug.) () (Apr.) () (Feb.) (Nov.) (Nov.) Stock prices- 9. United States Current data for these series are shown on page JULY ItCII

79 ItCIt JULY 69 IOL INCOME AND RODUC Q GROSS IOL RODUC Year and quarter a. otal bil. dot.) 2. Current dollars b. Difference bil. dol) c. ercent change at annual rate a. otal bil.dol.) 25. Constant (958) dollars b. Difference bil.dol.) c. ercent change at annual rate a. otal (Index: 958=) 2. Implicit price deflator b. Difference (Index: 958=) c. ercent change at annual rate 972 hird quarter 97 hird quarter 974 hird quarter hird quarter,5.,4.,69.,24.7,248.9,277.9,8.9,44.,58.8,8.8,46.,4.9,46.6 pl, p p p GROSS IOL RODUC-Con. Q IOL AND ERSOL INCOME Year and quarter 25. er capita GN, current dollars dollars) 27. er capita GN, constant (958) dollars dollars) 22. National income in current dollars bil. dot.) 222. ersonal income in current dollars bil.dol.) 224. Current dollars (Ann. rate* bil.dol.) Disposable personal income 225. Constant (958) dollars bil.dol.) 226. er capita, current dollars dollars) 227. er capita, constant (958) dollars dol.) 972 hird quarter 97 hird quarter 974 hird quarter hird quarter 5,54 5,478 5,59 5,75 5,95 6,79 r6,24 r6,68 r6,429 r6,57 r6,677 r6,7 6,652 p6,7l8,72,77 r,8l7,886 r,968 r,98,992 4,7,929,97,88,782,66, ,27.6,5.2,77.,6.,8.8,.2,55.5,65.4, ,.6,9.2,68.,99.,2.5,4.6,^68.2,86.9,9.4 pi, ,8.8,5.5 pi, p62.5,72,787,86 4, 4,4 4,244 4,9 4,452 4,497 4,565 4,68 4,745 4,768 5,O56 2,79 2,749 2,784 2,864 2,9 2,94 2,952 2,952 2,887 2,85 2,842 2,798 2,775 p2,98 NOE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. he "r" indicates revised; "p'\ preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "", not available. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 9,, and 65.

80 7 JULY IOL INCOME AND RODUC ^ERSOL CONSUMION EXENDIURES Year and quarter 2. otal in current dollars 2. otal in constant (958) dollars 22. Durable goods, total, in current dollars 2. Durable goods, total except autos, in current dollars 24. Automobiles in current dollars 26. Nondurable goods in current dollars 27. Services in current dollars bit. dol.) bil.dol.) bil.dol.) bil.dol.) bil. dol.) bil. dol.) bil.dol.) 972 hird quarter 97 hird quarter a hird quarter hird quarter pl ^ J G R O S S RIVAE DOMESIC INVESMEN IN CURREN DOLLARS Year and quarter 24. otal 24. Nonresidential fixed investment 242. Nonresidential structures 24. roducers' durable equipment 244. Residential structures 245. Change in business inventories bil.dol.) (Ann*rate, bil. dol.) bil.dol.) bil.dol.) bil.dol.) bil.dol.) 972 hird quarter hird quarter hird quarter hird quarter H pl NOE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. he "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "", not available. Graphs of these series are shown on pages and 2.

81 licit JULY 7 IOL INCOME AND RODUC BJFOREIGN RADE IN CURREN DOLLARS GOVERNMEN URCHASES OF GOODS AND SERVICES Mil IN CURREN DOLLARS Year and quarter 25. Net exports of goods and services 252. Exports of goods and services 25. Imports of goods and services 26. otal 262. Federal 264. National defense 266. State and local bil. dol.) bil. dol.) bil. dol.) bil. dol.) bil. dol.) bil. dol.) bil. dol.) 972 hird quarter hird quarter hird quarter I hird quarter VS pl p2.2 JHFIL SALES AND INVENORIES IN CURREN DOLLARS Wm IOL INCOME COMONENS I IN CURREN DOLLARS Year and quarter 27. Final sales Durable goods 27. Change in business inventories 274. Final sales Nondurable goods 275. Change in business inventories 28. Compensation of employees 282. roprietors' income 284. Rental income of persons bil. dol.) bil. dol.) bil. dol.) bil. dol.) bil. dol.) bil. dol.) bil. dol.) 972 hird quarter 97 hird quarter hird quarter as hird quarter ,2 U p p NOE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. he "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e'\ estimated; "a", anticipated; and "", not available. Graphs of these series are shown on pages,4,5, and 6.

82 72 JULY ItCII IOL INCOME AND RODUC ( IOL INCOME COMONENS H IN CURREN DOLLARS-Con. QJSAVING IN CURREN DOLLARS Year and quarter 286. Corporate profits and inventory valuation adjustment 288. Net interest 29. Gross saving 292. ersonal saving 294. Undistributed corporate profits plus inventory valuation adjustment 296. Capital consumption allowances 298. Government surplus or deficit bil. dol.) bil. dol.) bil. dol.) bil. dol.) bil. dol.) bil. dol.) bil. dol.) 972 hird quarter 97 hird quarter hird quarter hird quarter I J^REAL GROSS IOL RODUC Year and quarter 27. Final sales, constant (958) dollars 246. Change in business inventories, constant (958) dollars 247. Fixed investment, nonresidential, constant (958) dollars 248. Fixed investment, residential structures, constant (958) dollars 249. Gross auto product, constant (958) dollars 26. Federal Gov^ ernment purchases of goods and services, constant (958) dollars 267. State and local government purchases of goods and services, constant (958) dollars bil. dol.) bil. dol.) bil. dol.) bil. dol.) bil. dol.) bil. dol.) bil. dol.) 972 hird quarter hird quarter 974 hird quarter hird quarter p p NOE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. he "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "", not available. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 6,7, and 8.

83 IOL INCOME AND RODUC SHARES OF GN AND IOL INCOME Year and quarter 2A. ersonal consumption expenditures 24 A. Fixed investment, nonresidential 244A. Fixed investment, residential structures ercent of Gross National roduct 245A. Change in business inventories 25A. Net exports of goods and services 262A. Federal Govt. purchases of goods and services 266A. State and local govt. purchases of goods and services (ercent) (ercent) (ercent) (ercent) (ercent) (ercent) (ercent) 972 hird quarter hird quarter hird quarter hird quarter plo.l p pl4.7 ^SHARES OF GN AND IOL INCOME-Con. Year and quarter 28A. Compensation of employees 282A. roprietors' income ercent of National Income 284A. Rental income of persons 286A. Corporate profits and inventory valuation adjustment 288A. Net interest (ercent) (ercent) (ercent) (ercent) (ercent) 972 hird quarter 97 hird quarter hird quarter hird quarter NOE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. he "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "", not available. Graphs of these series are shown on page 9. JULY 7

84 74 JULY BCII CYCLICAL INDICAORS-Economic rocess and Cyclical iming MAJOR ECONOMIC ROCESS IMING CLASS... ^[EMLOYMEN AND UNEMLOYMEN LEADING INDICAORS ROUGHLY COINCIDEN INDICAORS Minor Economic rocess Marginal Employment Adjustments Job Vacancies Comprehensive Employment Year and month *. Average workweek of production workers, manufacturing (Hours) 2. Average weekly overtime hours, production workers, manufacturing (Hours) 2. Accession rate, manufacturing (er employees) *5. Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance, State programs (hous.). Layoff rate, manufacturing (er employees) 46. Index of help-wanted advertising in newspapers (967=) 48. Man-hours in nonagricultural establishments bil. man-hours) January February March E> April H> August September H> October November... December E> H) January February March April August September... October November... December H> January February March April r p p rl U5.9 August September... October November... December... NOE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by. Current high values are indicated by E); for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series, 5, 4, 9, 4, 4, 44, 45, and 9), current low values are indicated by [H>. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). he "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "", not available. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 2, 2, and 9. Data exclude uerto Rico which is included in figures published by source agency.

85 BCII JULY 75 CYCLICAL INDICAORS-Economic rocess and Cyclical iming MAJOR ECONOMIC ROCESS ^EMLOYMEN AND UNEMLOYMEN-Con. IMING CLASS... ROUGHLY COINCIDEN INDICAORS-Con. LAGGING INDICAORS Minor Economic rocess Comprehensive Employment-Con. Comprehensive Unemployment Long-Duration Unemployment Year and month *4. Number of employees on nonagricultural payrolls, establishment survey 42. ersons engaged in nonagricultural activities, labor force survey *4. Unemployment rate,total 45. Average weekly insured unemployment rate, State programs 4. Unemployment rate, married males *44. Unemployment rate, persons unemployed 5 weeks and over (hous.) (hous.) (ercent) (ercent) (ercent) (ercent) January February March 97 75,472 75,85 76, 79,82 79,86 8, April 76,9 76,58 76,787 8,52 8,669 8, August September.., 76,867 77,6 77,5 8,44 8,48 8, October November... December.., January February March ,649 77,95 77,924 77,925 78,5 78,89 82,24 82,6 82, 82,5 82,5 82,26 E> D> H> E> April 78,226 78,57 78,42 82,272 82,565 82, August September.., October November.., December.., January February March 78,479 78,66 78,844- E>78,865 78,44 77,69 77,227 76,78 76,68 H>82,97 82,82 82,9 82,864 82,4 8,86 8,79 8,7 8, * April, r76,49 r76,49 p76,464 8,848 8,89 8, p August September.., October November.., December.., NOE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by. Current high values are indicated by H); for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series, 5, 4, 9, 4, 4, 44, 45, and 9), current low values are indicated bye>. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). he "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "", not available. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 2,22,4, and 4. ^ exclude uerto Rico which is included in figures published by source agency.

86 76 JULY ItCII CYCLICAL INDICAORS-Economic rocess and Cyclical iming MAJOR ECONOMIC ROCESS IMING CLASS... Minor Economic rocess Q RODUCION, INCOME, CONSUMION, AND RADE ROUGHLY COINCIDEN INDICAORS Comprehensive roduction Comprehensive Income Comprehensive Consumption and rade Year and month *2. Gross national product in current dollars bil.dol.) *25. Gross national product in 958 dollars bil.dol.) *47.Index of industrial production (967=) *52. ersonal income bil.dol.) 5. Wages and salaries in mining, manufacturing and construction bil.dol.) *56. Manufacturing and trade sales (Mil.dol.) 57. Final sales (series 2 minus series 245) bil.dol.) *54. Current dollar sales Sales of retail stores (Mil.dol.) 59. Deflated (967 dollar) sales (Mil.dol.) 97 January February. March, ,2.,4.4, ,848 8,47 4,74,28.9 4,77 4,242 4,979,9 4,6 E>4,9 April, ,.7,8.9, ,22 4,726 4,54, ,85 4,72 4,67,84,55 2,82 August September, ,56.,67.6, ,58 45,584 45,679, ,767 42,55 42,529 4,,49,9 October November December,44- E> E> ,9.8,., ,789 52,5 5,7,5. 42,97 42,976 42,6,494,29 2,2 January February March 974, ,7.,.4, ,64 56,98 59,29,4.9 42,92 4,4 4,872 2,9 2,4 2,95 April, ,25.2,5.2, ,675 62,924 6,52,7. 44,28 44,894 44,59 2,6 2,45,786 August. September, ,59.5,67.2, ,824 7,644 7,862, ,56 47,56 46,77 2,755 2,878,774 October November December January February March,4.9, rllo.o,85.,84.5,9.,9.,9.4,95.7 E> )7,647 68,5 6,89 6,754 62,84 58,544,4...., ,8 44,469 44,82 45,955 46,89 45,926,8,9,98,88,98 r,575 April [H>pl,4.4 p779.*4 rlo9.9 rlo9.6 pllo.o rl,2. rl,24. [R>pl, r rl62,4l pl62,626 [H>pl, 467. r46,72 r47,95 E>48,285 ro,92 r,67 p,676 August September October November December NOE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by. Current high values are indicated by (H); for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series, 5, 4, 9, 4, 4, 44, 45, and 9), current low values are indicated by H>. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). he "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "", not available. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 2,24, and 42.

87 CYCLICAL INDICAORS-Economic rocess and Cyclical iming MAJOR ECONOMIC ROCESS Q FIXED CAIAL INVESMEN IMING CLASS... LEADING INDICAORS Minor Economic rocess Formation of Business Enterprises New Investment Commitments Year and month 2.Index of net business formation (967=). Number of new business incorporations (Number) *6. Value of manufacturers' new orders, durable goods industries (Bil.dol.) 8.Index of construction contracts, total value (967=) *. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment (Bil.dol.). Newly approved capital appropriations,, manufacturing corporations 2 (Bil.dol.) 24. Value of manufacturers' new orders, capital goods industries, nondefense (Bil.dol.) 9. Construction contracts for commercial and industrial buildings, floor (Million sq.feet) (Million sq. meters) January February March April ) ,796 28,752 28,964 28,522 28,286 27, a August September... October November... December... January. February March ,664 26,689 26,24 26,89 26,78 24,88 26,5 27,56 26, a a H> ll! E> April H>29,7 27,562 25, August September... October November... December... January February March April rlo.4 ^.8 27,79 26,495 26, 25,44 25,555 25, 24,46 24,298 24,922 26,56 26, ) (H> rl2.99 pl2.5 2! 69 ) IO rlo.o plo August September... October November... December... NOE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by. Current high values are indicated by H); for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series, 5, 4, 9, 4, 4, 44, 45, and 9), current low values are indicated by. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). he "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "", not available. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 25,26, and 9. his is a copyrighted series used \jy permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from the source agency: McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F.W. Dodge Division (series B and 9) or he Conference Board (series ). Data beginning with the 4th quarter 974 are not strictly comparable with earlier data. See BCD, page 77. Converted to metric units by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. I M J I JULY 77

88 CYCLICAL INDICAORS-Economic rocess and Cyclical iming MAJOR ECONOMIC ROCESS INFIXED CAIAL INVESMEN-Con. INVENORIES AND INVENORY l i l INVESMEN IMING CLASS... LEADING INDICAORS-Con. ROUGHLY COINCIDEN INDICAORS LAGGING INDICAORS LEADING INDICAORS Minor Economic rocess New Investment Commitments-Con. Backlog of Investment Commitments Investment Expenditures Inventory Investment and urchasing Year and month 28. New private housing units started, total thous.) *29.Index of new private housing units authorized by local building permits (967=) 96. Manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries (Bil.dol.) 97. Backlog of capital appropriations, manuacturing 2 (Bil.dol.) *6. Business expenditures on new plant and equipment, total bil.dol.) 69. Machinery and equipment sales and business construction expend i- :ures bil.dol.) 245. Change in business inventories bil.dol.) *. Change in book value of mfg. and trade inventories, total bil.dol.) 7. urchased materials, companies reporting higher inventories (ercent reporting) January February March 97 2,486 2,76 2, April 2,96 2, 2, a 29! a August September... 2,2 2,58 -, ^ October November... December... January February March 974,692,72,44,47,88, ! H> E> April,,,58,467, August September..,4,56, H> October November.. December.. January February... March,6,7 999, ) [H>6O.O (H) April r98 rl,29 pi,7 72. r rll all.9 rl5.52 H r August September.. all.87 October November.. December.. all5.8 NOE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by. Current high values are indicated by H); for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series, 5, 4, 9, 4, 4, 44, 45, and 9), current low values are indicated by H). Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). he "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e'\ estimated; "a", anticipated; and "", not available. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 26,27,28,4, and 4. " Series reaching high values before 97 are as follows: Series 28, January 972 (2,494); Series 29, December 972 (28.5). 2 his is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from he Conference Board. Data beginning with the 4th quarter 974 are not strictly comparable with earlier data. See BCD, page JULY BCD

89 BCII JULY 79 CYCLICAL INDICAORS-Economic rocess and Cyclical iming MAJOR ECONOMIC ROCESS ^INVENORIES AND INVENORY INVESMEN-Con. K B RICES, COSS, AND ROFIS IMING CLASS... LEADING INDICAORS-Con. LAGGING INDICAORS LEADING INDICAORS Minor Economic rocess Inventory Investment and urchasing-con. Inventories Sensitive Commodity rices Stock rices rofits and rofit Margins Year and month 2. Change in book value, mfrs.' inventories of mtls. and supplies bil.dol.) 26. rod, materials, companies reporting commitments 6 days or longer (ercent reporting) 2. Vendor performance, companies reporting slower deliveries (ercent reporting) 25. Change in unfilled orders, durable goods industries (Bil.dol.)' 7. Manufacturing and trade inventories, book value (Bil.dol.) 65. Mfrs.' inventories of finished goods, book value (Bil.dol.) *2.Index of industrial materials prices (967=) *9. Index of stock prices, 5 common stocks 94-4=) Corporate profits after taxes *6. Current dollars bil.dol.) 8. Constant (958) dollars bil.dol.) January February March E> April B> August September October November... December January February March IH) April E> August September... D H> (H>94..2 October November... December... January February March E> H> April r r August.. September... October November... December... NOE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by. Current high values are indicated by E); for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series, 5, 4, 9, 4, 4, 44, 45, and 9), current low values are indicated by E>. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). he "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "", not available. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 28,29,,4,4, and 4. Average for, 8, and 5. 2 Average for 2, 9, 6, and 2.

90 8 J U L Y ItCII CYCLICAL INDICAORS-Economic rocess and Cyclical iming MAJOR ECONOMIC ROCESS HJRICES, COSS, AND ROFIS-Con. IMING CLASS... LEADING INDICAORS-Con. ROUGHLY COINCIDEN INDICAORS LAGGING INDICAORS Minor Economic rocess rofits and rofit Margins-Con. Cash Flows Comprehensive Wholesale rices Unit Labor Costs Year and month 22. Ratio, profits to income orig. in corporate business (ercent) 5. rofits (after taxes) per dollar of sales, all 2 mfg. corp. (Cents) 7. Ratio, price to unit labor cost index, mfg. (967=) Net cash flows, corporate 4. Current dollars bil.dol.) 5. Constant (958) dot. bil.dol.) 55. Index of wholesale prices, industrial commod. (967=) 58. Index of wholesale prices, mfd. goods (967=) Unit labor cost, total private economy 6.Index (967=) 6c. Change over -Q spans percent) 68. Labor cost (cur. dol.) per unit of gross prod. (958 dol.), corp. (Dollars) * 6 2. I n d e x o f l a b o r c o s t p e r u n i t o f o u t - p u t, m f g. ( = ) 97 January February. March April IO August September October November December January February March D April August September E/.5 E> H>8.6 E> October November December H> I January February March « I rl.7 E> April rll.7 rll2.6 pll H> )7. H>l ( N A ) rl48. rl49.7 E>l5.4 August September October November December NOE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by. Current high values are indicated by E); for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series, 5, 4, 9, 4, 4, 44, 45, and 9), current low values are indicated by [H). Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). he "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "", not available. Graphs of these series are shown on pages,,2,4, and 4. 2 Data beginning with the 4th quarter 97 are not comparable with earlier data due to changes in the definition of profits and in the rules for consolidation. he figure for the 4th quarter 97 on the old basis is 4.8.

91 CYCLICAL INDICAORS-Economic rocess and Cyclical iming MAJOR ECONOMIC ROCESS EHMONEY AND CREDI IMING CLASS... LEADING INDICAORS Minor Economic rocess Flows of Money and Credit Credit Difficulties Year and month 85. Change in U.S. money ± supply (M) percent) 2. Change in money supply plus time deposits at commercial banks (M2) percent). Change in money supply plus time deposits at banks and nonbank institutions (M) percent). Net change in mortgage debt held by financial institutions and life insurance companies * bil.dol.) 2 2. Net change in bank loans to businesses bil.dol.) *.Net change in consumer installment debt bil.dol.). otal private borrowing mil, dol) 4. Current liabilities of business failures (Mil. dol.) 9. Delinquency rate, days and over, consumer installment loans (ercent) January February March April 97 August September H> ,696 78,46 84, *.O2 October November... December , January February March , ^54 April August September r+47.9 r+9.55 r+9.84 r+.62 r+.67 H) ,92 64, *6l 2.6 October November... December... January February March April August September r+.87 B> r+. p IO H>+9.5 r+29.4 r+24. r+6.54 r r-9.7 r-6.9 r-22.6 r ,88 p89, October November... December... NOE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by. Current high values are indicated by E); for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series, 5, 4, 9, 4, 4, 44, 45, and 9), current low values are indicated by [fi>. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). he "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "", not available. Graphs of these series are shown on pages,4, and 4. i n.,.,. n.,,.,» H a,a.uti. ± Serieg reaching high values before 97 are as follows: Series 2, February 97 (+8.98); Series, December 972 (+57.89); Series 4, December 972 (86.79); Series 9, December 97 (.7). 2 Data include conventional mortgages held by GNMA. Data beginning October 974 are not strictly comparable with earlier data. See October 974 BCD, page iii. 4 Average for weeks ended 2, 9, and 6. I JULY 8

92 82 JULY BCII CYCLICAL INDICAORS-Economic rocess and Cyclical iming MAJOR ECONOMIC ROCESS ^JMONEY AND CREDI-Con. IMING CLASS... ROUGHLY COINCIDEN INDICAORS LAGGING INDICAORS Minor Economic rocess Bank Reserves Interest Rates Outstanding Debt Interest Rates and month 9. Free (Mil.dol.) 9. Federal funds rate (ercent) 4. reasury bill rate (ercent) 6. Corporate bond ury bond 5. reas- (ercent) (ercent) 7. Municipal bond yields (ercent) 66. Consumer installment debt (Mil.dol.) 72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding, weekly reporting large commercial banks (Mil. dol.) 9. Average prime rate charged by banks (ercent) *67. Bank rates on short-term business loans, 5 (ercent) 8. Mortgage yields, residen- :ial@ (ercent) 97 January February March -82 -,88 -, ,88 28,85,429 9,885 98,, April -,564 -,68 -, ,8,824 5,46,726 4,99 6, August September... -,584 -,74 -, ,44 9,29 4,688 7,92,7, October November... December ,4 -, ,88 U4,4 44,524,,492 2, January February March , ,44 46,2 46,729 4,558 4,645 7, April -,56-2,282-2, ,882 49,44 5,2 2,497 2,99 24, August September... October November... December... -2,982 -,8-2,957 -, B> > [H) E> E>7.5 5,555 5,67 5,744 )54,46 5,746 52,92 28,54 29,5,988,8,598 E>4, H> [H> B> January February March, ,5 52,768 52,,87 rl,58 rl29, April +7 r-52 p r ,89 5,964 rl27,24 rl25,27 pl2, August September , October November.. December.. NOE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by. Current high values are indicated by (H); for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series, 5, 4, 9, 4, 4, 44, 45, and 9), current low values are indicated by H). Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). he "x" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "", not available. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 5,6, and 4. x Data beginning with September 974 are not strictly comparable with earlier data. See October 974 BCD, page iii. Average for weeks ended 2, 9, and 6. Average for weeks ended 2, 9, 6, and 2. 4 Average for weeks ended,, and 7. 5 Average for weeks ended 4,, and 8. 6 Average for through 2.

93 IICII JULY 8 CYCLICAL INDICAORS-Selected Indicators by iming Q[COMOSIE INDEXES Year and month 82. Five coinciders, estimated aggregate economic activity (series 4, 4, 47,52, 56) 825. Five coinciders, estimated aggregate economic activity, deflated (series 4,4, 47,52D, 56D) 8. Six laggers (series 44, 6,62,67, 7,72) 8. Marginal employment adjustments (series,2,,5) 84. Capital investment commitments (series 6,, 2,29) Leading Indicator Subgroups 85. Inventory investment and purchasing (series 2, 25,,7) 86. rofitability (series 6, 7,9) 87. Sensitive financial flows (series,85, 2,) (967=) (967=) (967=) (967=) (967=) (967=) (967=) (967=) 97 January February March ()28.6 April E> () August September October November December B) January February March April I II August September , B> E> rll5.8.7 rlo5.5 October November December E> E) IO rlo6.2 rlol.o 9.2 January February March rl54-l z r89.7 r April rl rl X 24.6 r25.5 r r8. p82.9 rlo7.5 rlo8.8 plo8.8 rill.9 rlll.7 9. rll4.9 rll r August September October November December NOE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated b y. Current high values are indicated by H); for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series, 5, 4, 9, 4, 4, 44, 45, and 9), current low values are indicated by[fi). Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). he "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "", not available. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 7 and 8. Excludes series 56 for which data are not yet available. he new index of 2 leading indicators is shown on pages v and vii; the old leading index is shown on page 2.

94 84 JULY ANICIAIONS AND INENIONS Q AGGREGAE SERIES Year and quarter a. Actual expenditures bit. dol.) 6. Business expenditures for new plant and equipment, all industries b. Second anticipations as percent of actual (ercent) c. First anticipations as percent of actual (ercent) 4. Manufacturers' sales, total value (Bil.dol.) 42. Manufacturers' inventories, total book value (Bil.dol.) 4 4. Condition of manufacturers' inventories: per- considered cent h gh less percent cc nsidered low (ercent) 972 hird quarter 97 hird quarter 974 hird quarter hird quarter all.9 all.87 all a ra249.8 a rahs.l al H [ AGGREGAE SERIES-Con. K R DIFFUSION INDEXES Year and quarter 46. Adequacy of mf rs.' capacity: percent considered inadequate less percent considered excessive (ercent) 45. Index of consumer sentiment ( 966=) a. Actual expenditures (-Qspan) D6. Business expenditures for new plant and equipment, all industries b. Second anticipations (-Qspan) c. First anticipations (-Qspan) Actual (4-Q span) D44. New orders, manufacturing Anticipated (4-Q span) 972 hird quarter 97 hird quarter 974 hird quarter hird quarter , NOE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. he "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "", not available. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 44,45, and 46. ( nis is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun & Bradstreet, Inc.

95 ANICIAIONS AND INENIONS Q j DIFFUSION INDEXES-Con. Year and quarter Actual D442. Net profits, manufacturing and trade Anticipated Actual D444. Net sales, manufacturing and trade Anticipated Actual D446. Number of employees, mfg. and trade Anticipated Actual D45. Level of inventories, manufacturing and trade Anticipated (4-Q span) (4-Q span) (4-Q span) (4-Q span) (4-Q span) (4-Q span) (4-Q span) (4-Q span) 972 hird quarter B BB 9 BB hird quarter B BB 9 9 BB hird quarter B hird quarter 52 (MA) Q DIFFUSION INDEXES-Con. Year and quarter D46. Manufacturing and trade D462. Manufacturing Selling prices D464. Wholesale trade D466. Retail trade Actual Anticipated Actual Anticipated Actual Anticipated Actual Anticipated (4-Q span) (4-Q span) (4-Q span) (4-Q span) (4-Q span) (4-Q span) (4-Q span) (4-Q span) 972 hird quarter 97 hird quarter B hird quarter BB hird quarter NOE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. he "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "", not available. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 46 and 47. his is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun &Bradstreet, Inc. BCII JULY 85

96 86 JULY ItCII OHER KEY INDICAORS FOREIGN RADE Year and month 5. Merchandise trade balance (series 52 minus series 52) 52. Exports, excluding military aid shipments, total 56. Manufacturers' new orders for export, durable goods except motor vehicles and parts 58. Index of export orders, nonelectrical machinery 52. General imports, total (Mil.dol.) (Mil. dol.) (Mil.dol.) (967=) (Mil.dol.) January February March April ,955 5,7 5, 5,494 5,56 5,728 2,4 2,248 2,7 2, 2,258 2, ,244 5,48 5,44 5,6 5,7 5,775 August September ,865 6,^2 6,42 2,228 2,85 2, ,829 6, 5,644 October November... December... January February March April r+652 r+2-6 r r-26 6,585 6,879 6,949 7,5 7,549 7,625 8,8 7,652 8,7 2,6 2,29 2,665 2,828 2,872,5,75,52 2, ,996 6,684 6,29 r6,498 r7,8 7,742 8,25 8,264 r8,577 August September.., r-65 r-888 r-297 r8,7 r8,79 r8,99 2,9,24, r8,922 r9,267 r8,696 October November.. December.. January February... March r-loo ro r ,8 8,67 r8,97 8,862 9,42 8,789 8,76,565,264,5,295,66, r8,77 r8,97 r9,257 9,622 7,872 7,6 April August September ,52 8,57 8,45,9, , 7,9 October November.. December.. NOE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by < ). Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. he "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "", not available. Graphs of these series are shown on page 48.

97 OHER KEY INDICAORS Q BALANCE OF AYMENS AND MAJOR COMONENS Year and quarter 25. Balance on goods and services 55. Balance on goods, services, and remittances 57. Balance on current account 59. Balance on current account and long-term capital 52. Net liquid ty balance 522. Official reserve transactions balance 5. Liquid 'labilities to all foreigners (Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) 972 hird quarter -,786 -,657 -,245 -,24-2,87-2,5 -,625 -,674-2,77-2,68-2,98-2, -,95-2,8-2,966 -,855 -,46-2,287-4,57 -,5 -, ,68 -,485 66,925 69,88 75,498 78, hird quarter -6 66,55 2, ,47 2^ -, ,647 -,9 -,85, ,8 -,79, , ,8 2,449 r85,6l r86,279 r86,576 r87, hird quarter hird quarter p,44 2, p2, ,865 -, p2,48,624-2,8 -,6-6, ,99-6,22 -,99-7,725,O ,92 9-4,855 p-,22 r9,l6 r98,87 rlo5,4o4 rll2,825 rpll,4 BALANCE OF AYMENS AND MAJOR COMONENS-Con. Year and quarter 52. Liquid and certain nonliquid liabilities to foreign official agencies 54. U.S. official reserve assets 252. Exports Goods and services Goods and Services Movements, Excluding ransfers Under Military Grants 25. Imports 56. Exports Merchandise, adjusted 57. Imports Income on investment, military transactions, other services 54. Exports 54. Imports (Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) 972 hird quarter 97 hird quarter 974 hird quarter hird quarter 5,86 54,64 6,75 6,526 r7,6 7,7 69,777 r66,84 r65,62 r7, r72,76 r76,624 rp79,76 2,27,9,27,5 2,9 2,94 2,927 4,78 4,588 4,946 5,89 5,88 6,256 7,247 7,275 8,49 9,729 22,29 24,44 26,282 29,298,24 5,498 7,79 8,45 7,l6l 9, 8,92 9,594 2,972 22,69 2,978 24,729 26,478,49 5,498 7,44 7,486,87,798,699 2,496,95 5,42 6,958 8,45 2,547 22,45 24,26 25,26 26,585 p27,222,489,296 4,27 4,985 6,4 7,89 7,77 9,64 22,65 25,74 27,67 28,5 p25,8l 5,449 5,576 5,85 6,4 6,96 7,86 7,8 8,75,87,292 2,5,82 p9,99 5,544 5,66 5,567 5,987 6,56 6,789 6,992 7,4 7,758 9,755,7 9,45 p8,46 NOE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. he "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "", not available. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 49, 5, and 5. x Amount outstanding at end of quarter. 2 Less than $5, (+). Reserve position at end of quarter. 4 Balance of payments basis: Excludes transfers under military grants and Department of Defense sales contracts (exports) and Department of Defense purchases (imports). BCII JULY 87

98 OHER KEY INDICAORS BALANCE OF AYMENS AND MAJOR COMONENS-Con. Year and quarter 542. U.S. investments abroad Income on investments (Mil. dol.) 54. Foreign investments in the U.S. (Mil. dol.) Income on Investments, Military ransactions and Other Services (components of series 54 and 54) 544. Receipts from foreign travelers in the U.S. (Mil, dol.) ravel 545. ayments by U.S. travelers abroad (Mil, dol.) 546. Sales under military contracts (Mil, dol.) Military transactions 547. Military expenditures abroad (Mil, dol.) ransportation and other services 548. Receipts from (Mil, dol.) 549. ayments for (Mil, dol.) hird quarter.. 2,274 2,87 2,595 2,95,64,4,462, ,22,2,25, ,222,272,5,85 2,7 2,2 2,29 2,98,726,7,75, hird quarter..,2,4,576,995,799 2,96 2,4 2, ,8,94,75, ,9,74,26,72,77 2,6 2,6 2,864 2,848 2,45 2,6 2,2 2, hird quarter.. 6,29 6,447 7,54 6,4 2,884 4,48 4,7, ,6,64,46,476,455, ,66,24,279,5,84,22,7,48 2,245 2,472 2,69 2,658.. hird quarter.. 4,46 p,2 pi,62 pl,559 () p948 pl,295,48 p2,56l BALANCE OF AYMENS AND MAJOR COMONENS-Con. Year and quarter 56. Foreign investments in the U.S. (Mil. dol.) Direct investments 56. U.S. investments abroad (Mil. dol.) Capital Movements plus Government Nonmilitary Unilateral ransfers 564. Foreign purchases of U.S. securities (Mil. dol.) Securities investments 565. U.S. purchases of foreign securities (Mil. dol.) 57. Government grants and capital transactions, net (Mil. dol.) 575. Banking and other capital transactions, net (Mil. dol.) 972., hird quarter ,2 5,5 76, , , ,2 -,58 97., hird quarter., ,65,25 59,9,78 489, ,567 -,55-2, , hird quarter.,77, ,572,828, , ,487-7,9-7,66 -,78-4,47. hird quarter p64 p2, -, NOE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. he "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "", not available. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 52 and 5. JULY

99 BCII JULY 89 OHER KEY INDICAORS FEDERAL GOVERNMEN ACIVIIES Receipts and Expenditures Defense Indicators Year and month 6. Federal surplus (+) or deficit (-), national income and product accounts bil.dol.) 6. Federal receipts, national income and product accounts bil.dol.) 62. Federal expenditures, national income and product accounts bil.dol.) 264. National defense purchases bil.dol.) 66. Defense Department obligations, total, excluding military assistance (Mil. dol.) 62. Defense Department obligations, procurement (Mil. dol.) 648. New orders, defense products (Bil.dol.) 625. Military prime contract awards to U.S. business firms and institutions (Mil. dol.) 97 January February March -.2 2^ ,84 7,7 7,6,6,88, ,824 2,899 2,947 April ,79 7,269 7,69,49,7, ,568,7 2,897 August September ,2 7,9 6,26,48,676, ,6,276,222 October November... December January February March, ,67 7,44 6,794 7,527 7,48 7,86,788,77,49 2,77,78, ,76,55 2,85,78,ia 2,677 April,, ,88 7,2 7,66 2,4,, ,4 2,88,44 August, September.., ,77 8,99 7,78,99,692, ,494 4,5,52 October November.., December.., O 7,6 8,8 8,228,446 2,49, ,6,777 2,52 January February March ,^9 7,58 8,22,424,59 2, ,69,987 2,87 April ,95.2 8,25,425,85 I.64 rl.66 pi. 68 4,22,926 August, September.. October November.., December.., NOE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. he "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "", not available. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 54 and 55.

100 9 JULY ItCII OHER KEY INDICAORS JJRICE MOVEMENS Year and month 2. Index Fixed weighted price index, gross private product (958=) 2c. Change over -quarter spans percent) 78. Index (967=) All items 78c. Change over -month spans (ercent) 78c. Change over 6-month spans percent) Consumer price indexes 782. Food (967=) 78. Commodities less food (967=) 784. Services (967=) 97 January February.. March April August September October November December January February March Z 59! U.I April I6O August September \e I October.. November December January.. February March April pl8.6 p I64.I August September October November December NOE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. he "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "", not available. Graphs of these series are shown on page 56. ercent changes are centered within the spans: -month changes are placed on the 2d month, -quarter changes are placed on st month of the 2d quarter, and 6-month changes are placed on the 4-th month.

101 ItCII JULY 9 OHER KEY INDICAORS 'RICE MOVEMENS-Con. Year and month 75. All commodities 58. Manufactured goods 75. rocessed foods and feeds Wholesale price indexes 752. Farm products Industrial commodities (967=) (967=) (967=) (967=) 55. Index (967=) 55c. Change over -month spans (ercent) 55c. Change over 6-month spans percent) January February March April August September... October November... December... January February March 974 April, , August September.., October November.., December.. January February March April I I August September.., October November.., December... NOE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. he "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "", not available. Graphs of these series are shown on page 57. ' ercent changes are centered within the spans: -month percent changes are placed on the 2d month and 6-month percent changes are placed on the 4th month.

102 92 JULY OHER KEY INDICAORS IWAGES AND RODUCIVIY Year and month 74. Index (967=) Average hourly earnings, production workers, private nonfarm economy, adj. Current dollar earnings 74c. Change over -month spans 2 (ercent) 74c. Change over 6-month spans 2 percent) 74.Index (967=) Real earnings 74c. Change over -month spans 2 (ercent) 74c. Change over 6-month spans 2 percent) 859. Real spendable avg. weekly earnings of nonagri. prod, or nonsupv. workers (967 dol.) Average hourly compensation, all employees, private nonfarm economy 745. Index (967=) Current dollar compensation 745c. Change over -quarter spans 2 percent) 745c. Change over 4-quarter spans 2 percent) 97 January February March April August September... October November... December... January February March U c V5.4O April August September.., October November.. December.. January February... March April pin pl.l r7. 7. p IO plo po ro.6 pl r pl p August September.. October November.. December.. NOE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. he "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "", not available. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 58 and 59. Adjusted for overtime (in manufacturing only) and interindustry employment shifts. 2 ercent changes are centered within the spans: -month changes are placed on the 2d month, -qiiarter changes are placed on the st month of the 2d quarter, 6-month changes are placed on the 4th month, and 4-quarter changes are placed on the middle month of the d quarter.

103 KCII JULY 9 OHER KEY INDICAORS WAGES AND RODUCIVIY-Con. Year and month 97 January., February. March... Average hourly compensation, all employees, private nonfarm economy-con Index (967=) n 2 '.8... Real compensation 746c. Change over -quarter spans percent) i\ c. Change over 4-quarter spans percent).6 Negotiated wage and benefit decisions, all industries 748. First year average changes percent) Average changes over life of contract percent) Index (967=) 5.8 Output per man-hour, total private economy 77c. Change over -quarter spans percent) 5. 77c. Change over 4-quarter spans percent) Output per man-hour, total private nonfarm (967=) 4- April. 2. r August September. rill.4-2. r October.. November December. r January., February. March.., rll.2 -. p April. llo.'l p August September. rlo r-.9 pll. p r-.7. October.. November December p-.6 ph January. February, March.., rlo9.2 rl rllo.8 ro.o 8.9 April. pl.o pill. p August September. October.. November December NOE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. he "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "", not available. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 58 and 59. ercent changes are centered within the spans: -quarter changes are placed on the st month of the 2d quarter and 4-quarter changes are placed on the middle month of the d quarter. 2 See "New Features and Changes for his Issue," page iii.

104 94 JULY ItCII OHER KEY INDICAORS CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE AND MAJOR COMONENS Year and month 84. otal Civilian labor force 842. Employed 84. Unemployed 844. Males 2 years and over 845. Females 2 years and over Unemployment rates 846. Both sexes 6-9 years of age 847. White 848. Negro and other races (hous.) (hous.) (hous.) (ercent) (ercent) (ercent) (ercent) (ercent) January February March 97 86,964 87,7 88,4 82,6 8,276 8,686 4, 4,427 4, B April 88,296 88,25 88,79 8,877 84,2 84,487 4,49 4,4 4, August September... October November... December... 88,92 88,86 89,22 89,568 89,852 9,48 84,679 84,582 84,98 85,452 85,577 85,646 4,22 4,24 4,24 4,6 4,275 4, January February March 974 9,465 9,55 9,8, 85,8 85,86 85,779 4,665 4,69 4, April 9,24 9,75 9,857 85,787 86,62 86,88 4,57 4,69 4, S.S August, September.., 9,28 9,99 9,75 86,4 86,274 86,42 4,88 4,925 5,.6.S October November.. December.. 9,844 9,78 9,8 86,4 85,689 85,22 5,54 6,9 6, January February... March April, 92,9 9,5 9,829 92,262 92,94 92,4 84,562 84,27 8,849 84,86 84,42 84,444 7,529 7,484 7,98 8,76 8,58 7, August September.. October... November.. December.. NOE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. he "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "", not available. Graphs of these series are shown on page 6.

105 ALYICAL MEASURES Q ACUAL AND OENIAL GN Year and quarter 25. Actual GN Gross national product in constant (958) dollars 26. otential GN 27. GN gap (potential less actual) bil. dol.) bil. dol.) bil. dol.) 972 hird quarter 97 hird quarter 974 hird quarter hird quarter ol p+7. NOE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. he "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "", not available. Graphs of these series are shown on page 6. Special Note on otential GN he following note has been provided by the Council of Economic Advisers regarding potential GN. he idea of potential GN has had a long history. Its measurement by the Council of Economic Advisers was started in the Economic Report of the Council in 962. Since that time, it has been used as a standard with which to evaluate the past and future behavior of the economy. otential GN purports to measure what the economy would produce if all of its resources were fully utilized given the technology and institutional arrangements that have existed at the time. "Fully utilized" has never meant the kind of utilization that would prevail, say, under wartime conditions but rather the utilization that could be expected under conditions of reasonable price stability. his has always been less than complete utilization. Under ordinary circumstances, some unemployment is present because some workers are in the process of changing jobs; similarly, some old plants are idle because market conditions do not permit them to operate profitably. In the past, this degree of utilization has been reflected in an overall unemployment rate of 4 percent. he rate of inflation associated with that degree of unemployment has typically not been specified. Furthermore, notions of what constitutes reasonable price stability can vary over time. otential GN is not something ordinarily observable. In practice, the Council in 962 made the judgment that the economy was operating at percent of potential in mid-955. Since that time potential GN has been estimated to grow at differing annual rates, as follows:.5 percent from the first quarter of 952 to the fourth quarter of 962,.75 percent from the fourth quarter of 962 to the fourth quarter of 965, 4 percent from the fourth quarter of 965 to the fourth quarter of 969. At the beginning of 97, the Council estimated that after the fourth quarter of 969 potential was growing at an annual rate of 4. percent, reflecting a rise of.8 percent in the potential labor force, a.2 percent decline in annual hours of work, and a 2.7 percent rise in output per manhour at potential. Drawing on a new study by the Bureau of Labor Statistics ("he United States Economy in 985", Monthly Labor Review, December 97), the Council has lowered its estimate of potential growth after 969 to 4 percent per annum, reflecting the following component changes: labor force,.8 percent; annual hours,. percent; output per manhour, 2.5 percent. Although potential is presented in the chart on page 6 and the table above as a point estimate each quarter, it is clearly subject to a margin of error and consequently, as with any measure of capacity, should be used with considerable caution. here are uncertainties regarding both the growth and the level of potential. It cannot be reasonably assumed that potential grows in each year or quarter at the same annual rate. Some qualifications about the measure of potential appear on pages of the 974 Economic Report. JULY 95

106 96 JULY ItCII ALYICAL MEASURES ALYICAL RAIOS Year and month 85. Ratio, output to capacity, manufacturing 85. Ratio, inventories to sales, manufacturing and trade 852. Ratio, manufacturers' unfilled orders to shipments, durable goods industries 85. Ratio, production of business equipment to consumer goods 854. Ratio, personal saving to disposable personal income 86. Ratio, help-wanted advertising to persons unemployed 857. Vacancy rate in total rental (ercent) (Ratio) (Ratio) (967=) (Ratio) (Ratio) (ercent) January February March 97 p April.46 I August September... October November... December... January February March 974 p I O April p8o!l, August September.., October November.. December.. p January February... March rp u r April.65 l.6 r r97. r po po August September.. October November.. December.. NOE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ( ). Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. he "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "", not available. Graphs of these series are shown on page 62.

107 BCII JULY 97 ALYICAL MEASURES DIFFUSION INDEXES Year and month D. Average workweek of production workers, manufacturing (2 industries) D6. Value of manufacturers' new orders, durable goods industries (5 industries) Leading Indicators D. Newly approved capital appropriations^ he Conference Board (7 industries) D4. rofits, mfg., FNCB (about, corporations) D9. Index of stock prices, 5 common stocks (65-7 industries) 2 D2. Index of industrial materials prices ( industrial materials) -month span 9-month span -month span 9-month span -quarter span -quarter span -quarter span -month span 9-month span -month span 9-month span January February March April 97 August September... October November... December... January February March April 974 August September... October November... December... January February March April d r52.4 psl.o ro.o I I r rl I August September October November... December... NOE: Figures are the percent of series components rising (half of the unchanged components are considered rising). Data are centered within spans: -month indexes are placed on 2d month and 9-month indexes are placed on the 6th month of span; -quarter indexes are placed on the st month of the 2d quarter and -quarter indexes are placed on the st month of the d quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used except in index D9 which requires no adjustment and index D4 which is adjusted only for the index. able E4 identifies the components for most of the indexes shown. he "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "", not available. Unadjusted series are indicated by. Graphs of these series are shown on page 6. lm,..,., hls.. ml_ n is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from he Conference Board. Due to a reclassification of 76 companies by industry, data beginning with the 4th quarter 974 (-quarter span) and d quarter 974 (-quarter span) are not strictly comparable with earlier data. Figures on the previous basis for the 4th quarter 974 and st quarter (l-quarter span) are 29 and 5, respectively; and for the d and 4th quarters, 974 -quarter span), they are 5 and 29, respectively. 2 Based on 7 components in January 97, on 69 components through April 97, on 68 components through October 97, on 67 components through April 974, on 66 components through September 974 and on 65 components thereafter. Component data are not shown in table E4 but are available from the source agency. aaverage for,8, and 5.

108 98 JULY BCII ALYICAL MEASURES DIFFUSION INDEXES-Con. Year and month Leading Indicators-Con. D5. Initial claims for unemployment insurance, State programs, week including the 2th (47 areas) D4. Number of employees on nonagriculural payrolls ( industries) D47. Index of industrial production (24 industries) Roughly Coincident Indicators D58. Index of wholesale prices (22 manufacturing industries) D54. Sales of retail stores (2 types of stores) -month span 9-month span -month span 6-month span -month span 6-month span -month span 6-month span -month span 9-month span 97 January February March April , August September October November December January February.... March April August September October November December r r6.9 January February March r2.8 rl2.5 rl2.5 p r76. p65.2 April r5.o r r52. r47.9 p r67.4 r August September October November December NOE: Figures are the percent of series components rising (half of the unchanged components are considered rising). Data are centered within spans: -month indexes are placed on the 2d month, 6-month indexes are placed on the 4th month, and 9-month indexes are placed on the 6th month of span. Seasonally adjusted components are used except in index D58 which requires no adjustment. able E4 identifies the components for most of the indexes shown. he "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "", not available. Unadjusted series are indicated by. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 6 and 64. Component data are not available for publication and therefore are not shown in table E4.

109 ALYICAL MEASURES E4 Selected Diffusion Index Components: Basic Data and Directions of Change 974 Diffusion index components November December January February March April D. AVERAGE WORKWEEK OF RODUCION WORKERS, MANUFACURING (Average weekly hours) All manufacturing industries o 8.8 r ercent rising of 2 components (2) (29) (7) (7) (45) (64) (52) (8) Durable goods industries: Ordnance and accessories Lumber and wood products Furniture and fixtures Stone, clay, and glass products rimary metal industries a a /.l.b a.o U.I a o a ra. + r8.8 + r r9.6 - a.o a Fabricated metal products.. Machinery, except electrical Electrical equipment and supplies ransportation equipment Instruments and related products Miscellaneous manufacturing industries a o o a r4.9 + r9.4 + r4.4 + r Nondurable goods industries: Food and kindred products obacco manufactures r extile mill products Apparel and other textile products aper and allied products. rinting and publishing.. Chemicals and allied products. etroleum and coal products., Rubber and plastic products, n.e.c. Leather and leather products a. 7.4 a a.2 7. a.o a.i o a r r4. r4.9 r9. r a a D6. VALUE OF MANUFACURERS'NEW ORDERS, DURABLE GOODS INDUSRIES 2 (Millions of dollars) All durable goods industries - 4,82-7,842-6,62 + 7,2-5, ,75 + 9,85 + 9,542 ercent rising of 5 components (9) (7) (49) (5) (4) (77) (4) (56) rimary metals Fabricated metal products - 7,86-5,226-6,297-4,87-5,7 + 4,72 + 5,78 + 4,784-4,96-4, ,95 + 4,8 + 5,86 + 4, ,982-4,7 Machinery, except electrical Electrical machinery ransportation equipment Other durable goods industries - 7,559 - U,926-9,775-7,8-7,426-4,49-8,5-7,24-6,87 + 4,99-7,25 + 7,262-6, , 9 + 8, - 7,95-6,759-4,662-7,75-6, , ,6 + 8,56 + 7, ,7-5,8 + 8,526-7, ,28-5,5 + 8, ,765 NOE: o facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (-) = falling. he "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "", not available. '-Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency. 2 Data for most of the 5 diffusion index components are not available for publication; however, they are all included in the totals and directions of change for six major industry groups shown here. JULY 99

110 JULY ItO ALYICAL MEASURES E4 Selected Diffusion Index Components: Basic Data and Directions of Change Con. Diffusion index components November 974 December January February March April D2. INDEX OF INDUSRIAL MAERIALS RICES 2 Industrial materials price index (967=) (Dollars). ercent rising of components. (2) (8) (54) (42) (8) (46) (62) (627 Copper scrap Lead scrap Steel scrap in Zinc Burlap Cotton, 2-market average rint cloth, average Wool tops Hides Rosin Rubber allow (pound). (kilogram). (pound). (kilogram). (U.S. ton). (metric ton). (pound). (kilogram). (pound). (kilogram). (yard). (meter). (pound). (kilogram). (yard). (meter). (pound). (kilogram). (pound). (kilogram). ( pounds). ( kilograms). (pound). (kilogram). (pound). (kilogram) a a o O O.4O a O.4O A D4. NUMBER OF EMLOYEES ON NOGRICULURAL AYROLLS (housands of employees) All nonagricultural payrolls - 78,44-77,69-77,227-76,78-76,68 o r76,49 +r76, ,464 ercent rising of components, () (5) () () (2) (5) (6) (52) Ordnance and accessories Lumber and wood products Furniture and fixtures Stone, clay, and glass products... rimary metal industries Fabricated metal products Machinery, except electrical Electrical equipment ransportation equipment Instruments and related products Miscellaneous manufacturing... Food and kindred products obacco manufactures extile mill products Apparel and other textile products aper and allied products rinting and publishing Chemicals and allied products etroleum and coal products Rubber and plastic products, n.e.c Leather and leather products ,68,,494,299, , , ,5 -,59 -,467 -,242 -, , , ,,,44,28,26 4, , ,44,52,6 5 5, , ,8,5, 298, o 85 - r r94 - r975 - rl,54 - rl,8 - rl,99 - r297 - r + rl, 62 + r756 + rl,2 - r r56 - rll8 + r46 + r24 o 85 + r466 + r6l + r478 - r895 - r97 - rl,2 - r294 r rl,4 o 62 + r776 + rl, r6 r567 rl2 r4u r2l ,4 -,2 +, ,8 o , NOE: o facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) = rising, () = unchanged, and (-) = falling. he "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "", not available. Average for, 8, and 5. 2 Series components are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. he industrial materials price index is not seasonally adjusted. Components are converted to metric units by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency. Data for the latest month shown are preliminary.

111 ALYICAL MEASURES E4 Selected Diffusion Index Components: Basic Data and Directions of Change Con. 974 Diffusion index components November December January February March April * r D4. NUMBER OF EMLOYEES ON NOGRICULURAL AYROLLS-Con. (housands of employees) Mining Contract construction ransportation and public utilities Wholesale trade Retail trade Finance, insurance, real estate... Service Federal Government State and local government 69,86 4,697 4,28 2,765 4,8,72 2,746, ,798-4,668-4,267-2,645 o 4,82 +,74-2,78 +,85 + 7,789 4,67 4,242-2,62 4,7 +,747 2,7 +., ,596-4,56-4,222-2,6-4,64 +,77 o 2,7 + 2,52 76,486 4,52 4,2 2,588 4,57,754 2,72 2,76 7,475 4,5 4,2 2,58 4,6,754 2,729 2, 79,469 4,497 4,27 2,66 4,6,775 2,7 2,7 7,47 4,495 4,96 2,662 4,64,798 2,76 2,24 D47. INDEX OF INDUSRIAL RODUCION (967=) All industrial production rlio.o ercent rising of 24 components 2. (2) (8) (7) (27) (2) (52) (48) (6) Durable manufactures: rimary and fabricated metals rimary metals Fabricated metal products Machinery and allied goods Nonelectrical machinery Electrical machinery ransportation equipment Instruments Lumber, clay, and glass Clay, glass, and stone products Lumber and products Furniture and miscellaneous Furniture and fixtures Miscellaneous manufactures Nondurable manufactures: extiles, apparel, and leather extile mill products Apparel products Leather and products aper and printing aper and products rinting and publishing Chemicals, petroleum, and rubber Chemicals and products etroleum products Rubber and plastics products Foods and tobacco Foods obacco products Mining: Coal Oil and gas extraction Metal, stone, and earth minerals. Metal mining Stone and earth minerals , * * * * * ! ! 9. 2.' * ! ! 99.9 Il6! * * o * - 6. r98. rll2.9 9! rlo4. r8l.o.6 rlo4*2 r99.8 O6. % 7 rl29.7 r rlq4. rl. rl rl2[ rlo6. rl25' ' NOE: o facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) = rising, () = unchanged, and (-) = falling. he "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "", not available. ^Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency. 2 Where actual data for separate industries are not available, estimates are used to compute the percent rising (MA) JULY

112 2 JULY ItCII ALYICAL MEASURES E4 Selected Diffusion Index Components: Basic Data and Directions of Change Con. Diffusion index components November 974 December January February March April D54. SALES OF REAIL SORES (Millions of dollars) All retail sales - 44, , , ,89-45,926 r46,72 + r47, ,285 ercent rising of 2 components 2... (22) (52) (74) (67) (5) (67) (78) (52) Grocery stores Eating and drinking places Department stores Mail-order houses (department store merchandise) Variety stores Men's and boys' wear stores Women's apparel, accessory stores Shoe stores Furniture, home furnishings stores Household appliance, V, radio stores Lumber yards, building materials dealers Hardware stores assenger car and other automotive dealers ire, battery, accessory dealers Gasoline service stations Drug and proprietary stores Liquor stores 9,74,75 4, ,24 629, , ,97, ,6 +,72-4, ,9 67 -, ,668 69,99, ,945 +,784-4, ,27 625, ,97 725,465, ,925,828 4, ,25 6, ,58 745,465, ,58 -,82 + 4, , , ,598 78,497,488 9 r9,846 r,898 r4,825 r476 r746 r5o6 r8l9 r7 + rl,244 + r686 + rl,45 + r468 + r7,6 r77 + r,52 - rl,455 r884,6,92 5, ,22 7, ,47 748,55, D58. INDEX OF WHOLESALE RICES, MANUFACURING INDUSRIES (967=) All manufacturing industries ercent rising of 22 components (68) 66.9 (66) 68.2 (64) 68. (64) 67.8 (59) 68.7 (7) 69.5 (64) 7. (68) Durable goods: Lumber and wood products Furniture and household durables Nonmetallic minerals products Iron and steel Nonferrous metals Fabricated structural metal products Miscellaneous metal products General purpose machinery and equipment. Miscellaneous machinery Electrical machinery and equipment Motor vehicles and equipment Miscellaneous products Nondurable goods: rocessed foods and feeds Cotton products Wool products Manmade fiber textile products Apparel ulp, paper, and allied products Chemicals and allied products etroleum products, refined Rubber and plastic products Hides, skins, leather, and related products NOE: o facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) = rising, () = unchanged, and (-) = falling. he "r" indicates revised;, preliminary; and "", not available. ' Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency. Data for the latest month shown are preliminary. 2 he diffusion index includes estimates for six types of stores not shown separately. Data are not seasonally adjusted.

113 ItCII JULY INERIOL COMARISONS CONSUMER RICES INDUSRIAL RODUCION Year and month 78. United States, index of consumer prices. Canada, index of consumer prices 2. United Kingdom, index of consumer prices 5. West Germany, index of consumer prices 6. France, index of consumer prices 8. Japan, index of consumer prices 7. Italy, index of consumer prices 47. United States, index of industrial production 2. Canada, index of industrial production 22. United Kingdom, index of industrial production 26. France, index of industrial production 967=) (967=) (967=) (967=) (967=) (967=) (967=) (967=) (967=) (967=) (967=) January February March April August September October November... December January February March April rl54 57 rl56 August September rl October November.., December.., rll6 52 rl46 rl42 January February March rl9 9 rll9 rll6 44 rl4 9 April rllo pllo 9 8 ll5 9 August September... October November... December... NOE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. he "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "", not available. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 66 and 67.

114 4 JULY ItCII INERIOL COMARISONS INDUSRIAL RODUCION-Con. SOCK RICES Year and month 25. West Germany, index of industrial production 28. Japan, index of industrial production 2.OECD, European countries, index of industrial production 27. Italy, index of industrial production 9. United States, index of stock prices, 5 common stocks 4. Canada, index of stock prices 42. United Kingdom, index of stock prices 46. France, index of stock prices 45. West Germany, index of stock prices 48. Japan, index of stock prices 47. Italy, index of stock prices (967=) (967=) (967=) (967=) (967=) (967=) (967=) (967=) (967=) (967=) (967=) January February March Revised April August September October November... December... January February March April, August September.. October... November.. December rl rl January February... March April 4 9 rl pl69 rl7 rl7 7 pl pl rpll rpho p8 p78 p76 August September.. plo2 ph9 pl2 p!45 pl October... November.. December.. NOE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. he "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "", not available. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 67 and 68. ^Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. ^See ft New Features and Changes for his Issue," page iii.

115 AENDIXES B. Current Adjustment Factors Series Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. 5. Average weekly initial claims, State unemployment insurance. New business incorporations rofits (after taxes) per dollar of sales, manufacturing Ratio, price to unit labor cost index, manufacturing Net change in mortgage debt held by financial institutions and life insurance companies urchased materials, percent of companies reporting higher inventories Index of labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing Commercial and industrial loans outstanding Defense Department obligations, total Defense Department obligations, procurement Military prime contract awards in U.S D4. rofits, manufacturing (FNCB) NOE: hese series are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of Economic Analysis or the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc., rather than by the source agency. Seasonal adjustments are kept current by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Seasonally adjusted data prepared by the source agency will be used in Business Conditions Digest whenever they are available. For a description of the method used to compute these factors, see Bureau of the Census echnical aper No. 5, he X- Variant of the Census Method II Seasonal Adjustment rogram. Factors are the products of seasonal and trading-day factors. 2 Quarterly series; factors are placed in the middle month of the quarter. his series is derived from seasonally adjusted components; it is further adjusted by these factors to remove residual seasonal variation. 4 hese quantities, in millions of dollars, are subtracted from the month-to-month net change in the unadjusted monthly totals to yield the seasonally adjusted net change. hese factors are computed by the additive version of the X- variant of the Census Method II seasonal adjustment program. 5 -quarter diffusion index; factors are placed in the first month of the quarter. he unadjusted diffusion index is computed and these factors, computed by the additive version of the X- variant of the Census Method II seasonal adjustment program, are subtracted to yield the seasonally adjusted index. 5

116 C. Historical Data for Selected Series Monthly Quarterly Year Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov Dec. IQ II Q III Q IV Q Annual 65. EKCEN CHANGE IN OAL U. S, KONEV SULY (DEMAND DEOSIS LUS CURRENCY C.I) (ANNUAL RAE/ ERCEN) AVEKACbE FOK tr.ioa « ft ft 4.U ? b 4.2b -.7 -l.ob 2.9 R. 6.6d b b b Oft OC d OH S -2!l <7 l.bfc 2.*.?o b ft.4 4, ( ', ft..7.o -2.S* l.g*.4* 7.6.*.6? 4.27 " \'. i O.?7 4.4 f.,46.7b.9 2. ( v I b H ? ! 6.6? O.fid b <? ,8 4.* b.o? -.ft 4.?. 4.7? o.efc 7.8b ft8 8.28, -2.6b C ?.6.4b -? b , b b C 7 < 9! t* lb O.b9. b.b & o O.b9 -.2* Ho -..5?.Fb ,o«4.b7-2.2? -.2*,7 C b !o6.47,fta ' , b ? , , , , e. 2fc e b.o a b.8.b ft6.b.74 H.ji.9^ , 9f ?.? b 2, o 6,o ERCEN CHANGF IN MONEY SULY LUS IME DEOSIS A COMMERCIAL danks (ANNUAL AF, ERCEN) (M2 2 AVERAGE FO triou ' #c? b ? 2.4a 5.6.6* 4.4.5?. 4.2 O.OC ?..6O b b, lb t # Ob V 4 4b 4b 5.cl b O.ftl - t»i? I'd (. ftb ,74 2.* ,6^ 7." , ? , b b o ft * 6.7ft O'l ft. 7? B.Ob as b b b. b OC oo ,, b e b -2?fc ?.72 6.b b.2<? b 2.* SO 5. O.a fc7 5.7u fi.o ,29 -.V4 4, ^ 2.b , Hi 96b , o K ?.4 *.O ? * b ,Q, on 6.6? b 4, V " 6.bO a 7 7 bo ( ' dl b V bl 9.2. b b 5.7b.7 5,r>*.2.^ 7.*.67 I.b rt 8.4 b.5 9.bo 6, ,6d ERCEN CHANGE IN MONEY SULY LUS IME DEOSIS A BANKS AND (ANNUAL RAE/ ERCEN) NON-tA,>jK INSIUIONS ) AVERAGE FO cicl) m "» *! b ft d.b? 9, b, t;-C t b.oj 7. 9." b b b: 6C 2: 6] 2*..58 5,2d C 9.Ob b d ::: B.tb t. <-' 9 b,7 7.* o.bo 8.9 7,b , b l?.7o , b.6h.65 d.4?.2 lb! b S C 7.4C 4*" io!o^ ] 2.ec ,t.] * 9.9d b?. 79.b b , b ? 2,b6.b ,d Ob C b o bH.^o.-? 8,9 C.?7 '/. * ?.'-id 9.5.e? * 9,:>.4? o 9,4 b..b 7.^2 2, f his series contains no revisions but is reprinted for the con 2 his series contains scattered revisions beginning with 962. his series contains revisions beginning with

117 C. Historical Data for Selected Series Continued Monthly Quarterly Year Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Q II Q III Q IV Q Annual 55. index OF WHOLESALE ICES/ INDUSRIAL (967=) COMMODIIES AVERAGE FOK ERIOD !!! ,., , t 69.' fi ft Q 54 <* ^^ "> 69.% 6^!7 75. e ? 74, Q 74. c 75. a 87.C ' ''' ! H.6 rtu fib e «5. 8J B b, « «85.G , e ^ 69!B 7l', H." 84.4 b ! 6 78, ? ^ ? 5. by 7b.\ Q I Qtl 7 (Jh O 95 ".7 95* « ,2 95.fc *.O ol.v t\ ' * C Q C , , b , J.5 94,2 95, b. 6 69, , Q J <-J.o h <!»««fa !? b * J ' b !!! '!.' 99, 99.7 ni.u C 97*.fi lo8.fi 2.? a 42 L 98. 9b.5 99.(, 9t, l'j?. * * * S Q ,5 llo.l C C.C ,2 2,6.5,4 U5. U&.7?7, lb c I lib !b.9 C b f.!u 9,' 99!7 lf-oic 2.4 in;?.*, *.? llj.i.6 4.s 7.6 lib b.7 97 loo!?.* 7." us!]. ^. I. 9rf!b ioo!o lw.y 5^-C. ERCEN CHA <GE IN INDEX OF WHOLESALE RICES, INDUSRIAL COMMODIIES, (MONHLY * E> tkcen) OVER -MONH SA,s 2 AVErtAliE FOh Frl* I CD 94b O.H ,*...* ? O.o ,h. V.? o.s O.b -.2 -l! , ' C.I. -.!^ -o!b v -.7 -O.:>.9,7 CO -j.7 -..,4 (,tu.2 * ? -.. A -o.> -.2 -O.i.!!!.4 -O.H.. -, O.C. O.C..- O.C O.C O.C O.C o.i n,r. -C ?.. -.? <>.-> O.o O.O O.fc.7 O.C J o.i.8.4,. c.o -.2 O.i.2 -,, ? C.I c.? C.I O.o c.o -. -c.i o.c:. c- c....c.."*. u..2. -Cl I ). ( * b , C O.O a. c.?.4.u -. O.. 2 C....4 O.'X.?, * ? L. O.b.4 O.b C.2 C.4, C.O..4. O.b C C...4 o.i. o.> C.I.2 C.I c.j C.4 (!.?..4.. J> O.H O.O ?..4. <.2. l.r. V..2.2,2.. J C. ERCEN CHA GES IN INDEX Of WHOLESALE RICES, INDUSRIAL COMMODIIES, (CoMOU'lUE-U AN,\IUAL <<AE, ERCFN) OVER 6-MOMH SKA,s 2 AVEKAfcE f-'-> FtHI'^D 947.., , , , b b * 2.2 O.C h. «s 9.o?.?. e. -s ,. C, 7 7.* o!."5 7.5 lb " , C. 2.B :.i v'.l -6. 2, H 4 ".?'.^ lv.'c ** t'. 7 O.b ?..<- 2 C "s.* b , b!!! I96.., b 8 2! 7 2! O.i t l! O.C *>. *..... I -.7 -O.J. O.fi.7..* V -O.t;.4. f C l.v \2 -ois _( j,9?.?. O.C..2 *.$ -b'.l , O.b C ' *, 6. J.. t o.7 o.s. > ,*: 2..? O.C O.'b. '.-* i!i. -o!i O.b *b.., * H a b.. *, ).7.5 O.'i «.?.Q.2..4 u.7..? 9.4 ^. i' *=..?..7.v.6 4.5,e 7, ^. r ~ i.;, u. a , J 4, , « c O.b 2.V ,b ? 2.i.9 2,5? ,: j 4.2.v. 4.;-. <?.< lc.i.t?-j, ^ 4.? ,",4 l.o * ,

118 C. Historical Data for Selected Series Continued Year !!! D , fl I DSO , Jan *«4. 85.« ill.a DIFFUSION... 88! ! C DIFFUSION , * , , Feb ! ll'.l Mar. Apr. Monthly 58. INDEX OF WHOLESALE RICES, ! ,6 94,9 9,9 94, INDEX FOR INDEX ll'.l INDEX , R FO INDEX B 85 ft B C Aug. Sept MANUFACURED GOODS.,(967 = ) R Q * 94!? «s ? 5. q 9.fi fr, C ? U : b V a y , bb ^ C. 2.7 C OF WHOLESALE RICES, MANUFACURED GOODS 2? (ERCEN 5?. 68.? A 5.9 4O.*9 68.? ? RISING OVER -MONH i) '? C CJ <t ?!? b :> bo.o ? B H b u b SANS) ,9.!i.5,b , ,6 6.6 * OF WHOLESALE RICES; MANUFACURED GOODS 25 (ERCEN * 7? fc RISI 86,u 77'. 6.R * 4 5. = 5 6 «j * ! * 6.^ , NG OVER 6-MONH 64. ll. # O HI ? ! b ? 86 7D 8t 9 77 SANS) b U b ^7 ei.e »5 8b HO H4 6 6*.6.6.8, ,4.8, ,4 Oct d , MANUFACURING b MA fll 7? ,9..5..,9.8,4,4.4., b 4 6 b !i ? NUFACURING. \l.,4, , v,.6..5., t) 'X,..6, b a ? C ] ,7.C c Nov. 7o l! Dec INDUSRIES b. 4. 4C. 6l! 77. 6a. 5. 5? b" INDUb b t e c, hi C r 9 9 p c ? IS IOC 8 b b fcl 6c IOC ] , ,8, ,9.2, ,7,,4..5.5,5,4.8.5 c ',9,4.7.2, !b c "., ,4. Q !o! !.6.4 \\, fc !e..fc..6.6 *,2. #c,,7.,<?.5,4.fc.6,7, C,.7,7.6.2!.2. &,<,, 4,4,<*.7,4,7.6.,7,,4,9!«#..c Quarterly II Q AVERAGE " fi ? ? " 2* AVERAGE ^ t* 7.2 8? AVERAGE 8" , t 25. ft ft. 8 7 fi.c 76.C 45. K u 7.' vo.l ri?..* 9. III Q IV Q FOR thioo * b * l! 9! * I6. FOR F-thlOD « b.j 62.V 79. f; «.9 6. h,6 57.» 56, * FO" ih 9.7 7?* a bv 7C b u r. 2 rfl.n >. t: M.H.f 4. e 72. f-9*.7 7 i. \j 7>j. b c It 68 5C b ? I'D *+ 49 t>«ioc 2? bl bl 7 f> o 7 b ov 7^ 7^ 7 C 97 t p fc, 5 h 4 2? fc 7 «p 7 6 c, r p 6,t f\ 2 a,, r."..7, (V,b a..7 Annual 72! 7e. 7b Bb! 9* 92! , , ' ! ii b. d. 5! 69. 6b! 57. 4V, e o. 65, 66. 6, 72. 7o. 6b! 8. 7l! 29. 4,. by t>u 7 Ct: -? 79 ft h ^ c 2 d 2! 4 b 7 4 b b ij 7 o t

119 C. Historical Data for Selected Series Continued Monthly Quarterly Year Jan. Feb. Mar Apr Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Q II Q III Q IV Q Annual 946!.! R ' ! , !7 INfcX OF vvholesale RlCtS, ALL COMMODIIES 967=) ? 62, ? !? 74.* 2. u ?.O b « S9 l $ QO.O b d , , ? ? ? C , " eo.7 77, ,a AVEKAGE FO" EMD 54,7 b ?.? B t ) ? , ^2.o 7c! 7 5. C VI. 8c '!! I !.! * Q4 94,ft Q4 \l '6 94! , ,9. 7, , !? , ? U ?.7 67.? 9, p b.? '4 y6.? 99.*", f>,.." *.?.? 5^. tt '99.6.? Ib ! IOC ea.o ! « S.7 SI , lll.o Il4, fi.6 yi , « b. 9? #(?.6 *.6. lib, tl.5 9, \y 9b, b ".7 C ft b ^ 99.7?. 6,?..& 8.2.? VI !h p C d u bh.i' 92!f 9." 94."^ 94. w Q.9 4.« «7.o 9!? 9. 94,6 94, 94, !b o d. 2.b b.d.4.9 llv.l INDEX OF WHOLESALE RICES, KOCESSFD FOODS ANDFFEDS 2 (967=) avekabe FOFv ER R ,R 86, , , , fr «s * * I *4 p&!y SO. 7 * * , , , 86 86!i 79. 8b t , , !o ei, ! ? H?' \ 9V 8o!2 9 \'i. 9.7 '' b. u u * *u 8a!? b 87! ! ? : ,4.6,4 C.7.9 #5 6,7,7 M !o R If; , ? 'S 94.? ? 4, 5, 9 4,f: ? 9. 69, 9.', 9, 9? JO.7 9v,"'?. K'7.r,.? a ? 9! ? Of?. HI.'' 4.2 A.M l!b lod.o & V2. ^6. f. 9 tj 9o!7 92.2?l.b G2.6 CS , 87, O loo fa 4. b S ? ? ? * b.? d,8 9, IOC tp b.7 8*.? ^ ,4,9..9 HI 2.4 7,4 5 #v 6, ?.6 69,6 9. t " ll^b? , , IC2U l?o.b l!l 92!^ * 97.«l! K..?. 2. b llb.r vi!t, R9.4 9l!o 9i, y 92, 92. 9),,2 O ,\ 7f. 2. I NO OF WHOLESALE. RICES, FAKf (967s) RODUCS MVEKAGE FOR ERIOD ;; 25, fl. 2.7?.2 9,7 7 b " 92,7 8,4 2, b 94, ,p b ! a U Q ,9 7.., a 28.? p5 94, , a ,4 95,? 94 losi; 9!^.??, R a ft S. lot. 9(s,f 9d.7 9b. f 96,5 VM,g 6.???.? iip-.o 4. a.8 loc. 99. H a 9.« y a V 9.2.a 4. 9b c l b ^.4 9b V =>7.9 Cb, 9.7 U.2 6,9. Hi.6 H9.6 H6. loo b 9d b.b loo.rt 9b. a 9o, , lib! 5? p lit. 2.! k t !o, ?!& 95. 9» t.6 9a , !2 9, fa 97 b.9 9 V b. 6, 2 H.6 k!??. 7,^ ios!e,5 97.^ ^. 9^', 9".9 9h.i+ 9b *4 9!.. 9,7 8,2!o c?!* ^ ^il 9 a, 4 C 6, 7. K. c ? "+. 9B.? C2.O 9b. c, 98.* b V.H 7.5,5 loo.y 2H.2 7. <d 4! 7 9 o,2 9 -i. 97* 9 /'.d ^ b , , , b HI. 2 U b 97, p b,^ 4,? loo, 2. <5 9...? ? 6U.«lOO.b H C lflo.tj 99.4 B ?7.7 2.a If.6 99, 6 9, U ,4, t 9f. b. 4. O C >. p.?! b C2, Id -' 9 6 >z 'j,'/ C5,4 2,9.* ?? !i. K9,o, \c C " 2. c; b, *>.6 9, 9. 9 a. 7.9 C.O 2, 9.. 2,9 I2b,o 7o. J *7.7 his i 2 his ( ) 9

120 C. Historical Data for Selected Series Continued Year !!! b!!! !!! '!! tt... 95o!i! o * J Jan ! 7 '", 5! Feb p.sie 86i C Mar ? 8 6i , , ERCEN oi4 l! "!4 l!d C , O.d.. ESCFw ,7 *.7. 6.b I , b Apr. Monthly Aug. 78. INDEX OF CONSUMER RICES, ALL Itf'S< " a h o!b 9 i CHANGES 6*! u fi dc d*.9 bb.? 9O!K 9. 9? ? 96..«vv.u s s '. *> 9b7« ?.? A d7. «8.7 9! IN INI/FX OF CO.MS (MON Hi. ) b fc.7 9o!7 92!l lib H. 6.5 tl fco.l 6.6 tfo f.7 b 9 7 9! U c V 9.'MEK RICES OVER f ka/ie, EKCEN)..4 oil oil.. -.? O.o oil O CHANGES V..* ~.* ('. CO < '.?..... c..? o.u.. O.U O. c..5.^ IN INUF (CCMCiHUEU C.6.6 -I ? O. u ? ^ X OF CONS oil o.a.. [ 6 -O. # 2 O.U UtfErt RICES CVErt ANNUAL HAE, ERCEN) ? o.u.5.fc ? C ? 7.* 7. r^ f.7 5..? ?..6. O.*» l.e.*.? I'.* H « , ,9.4., ? 4. 5.H R.7 2. d.b 4i d " * fc.o V Sept f ri?o 8 «? b 9 92 Q HI U MOiS (J G-l'-lOi\ u - 2 b 5 2 J , , « ,7..2.5, ,b.2.2.2, , , i,4.,4...7,4..,5,, ,b , V.7.2 Oct d d do do d9 VI « SANS AWS , , ,? , , ,.6, !7 Nov <J ! B6. tit li '. 6, 2 IIS c c C! 4 a - -? 2 t b p 9 & 5 e ? K ,9 4,7,7., *.2,r.4 Dec. 6H 7 7? dc tf6 88 d H u - u - 2 c 4 (. t c, ,5. \l.7.. io.5.6, , ,4..,..5 mi) \l ,b., u Q 64! , 8. 8! V ! c......, ! , b D *5 5?. fc 7 U 2 6 V ^ c b fc 4 b C 2 9 f >j 2 Quarterly II Q III Q AVFRCJE r(; r; i fc t to'.i 66.c 87. 8*. 6 9 "J 9l!*» 92. e ? ?..2 O. f '. c C..r>. - >.4.. f.. c -.VEr<A< 7.^ b!>=- 5.. ' o.i , J -. l.t ,? 4, '.?l. eo. **! *b! fc 7. *8. cjo! 9J ^, ?2 2. *, E For r! - (; (J (. jf. F~ 7 - j I c 7 t. J -) 7 e 7 7 ij j, 4 Lr ^ j I J ij J> H J L,v,D.., 7,7. tl!i ,^ IV Q ICD " 7 c. tto. 6, 8. 62! 85. h[ V d, H 'IOD, u o. (/ HOD - -(. I A 7 7 '! 2 7 a?? a -: '? (;< 7 4 S 7. tc t n 7.f., Annua S. - ' '". 6, 7/. 7. 7<i. 7?! 7*. *o! M! &! 87! S, 9! 9, 92. c >4. 97*.. 4, , '..,..,., ,,..., - b 4 -U 2 b r> 5 9 \ y 4 6 b 7 ( 2 s 7 D J <> f5 4 7 u ij 7 b 4 b c.2, 2 ',,5,u, his z his

121 C. Historical Data for Selected Series Continued Monthly Quarterly Year Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Q II Q III Q IV Q Annual 76?. INDEX OF COMiUMf-R RICES, 967=) FOOD * AVERAGE FG* tficd ,,, * b ? 74. 7? ? ? c, b.n o c ,6 77, « ? ?.O ,,? 7.C 62.7? ? , t c l.v 82, ' ?. c 6. «7'. 6 76,6 7.b 74.b 84^ 8. 82, ,, " 96o , M o V mi.fc , ? b , ? ? ? 98.9? ;- 6.7 H6.=. 6.Q 9," 9?.O **.l 99,?. 7.* 5. Uc.2 2? ? ^ v l. 9? b 99.8.? 8.6? H b ,5 9b bb ^ b b b', , 88,6 9U Il5,5 ll^, , *' ? fi C o fe, S. b 6.» « , b *i f ^ 8. "9.V Q l.<* 2,4 9b...V 9. e v - llb.k 9. l?4.j l"5.o «67. C Sft.v ?. f 5.2." 6.r 2, 2t> , 2,2 64,9 8, V.V 9, V 5. a * INDEX OF CONSUME < RICES, COMMODIIES LESS FOOU* (9*7x) AVF.Mfc E Fuf- th ri... 9* c ^ ? 9. t; yr..4 9, * 92. ' >. 9.! ? s. c '. S.6 9,6 Q Q b o,9 VI V h , C , ,5 9. u 9', , t> V() 7 9,,,o " 9, ?. 92. v 9.7 9^. 9b. t ^7.6 * V). ^. *2, ', ^ ? ">i 9 6.' E ^ , b " * ,... lc'2!o ?6.4 2' HI ?." 2.4,f. 7.* lil.o llfj.s 9, ( I<i2,' J ^.?.4 loe.o II. U fa b * lof*.6 U ** C ,8 4.8 C O lib , 7. c, V C «*, 4. «.b 2,^ e? C * "» 42.S.7 b, 2,b Ho I'\D tx of COVSIMLR KlCEo, SE hvicfs ' (l9h7.v. E FOf- HLKIOD ,4 5. 6, b 5. h 54, , ' f. 57 B i 5, bb,7 6 b , 6V.b" ,. 96rt ,, S ? , a , RO.O Q a ? S? a 7f, ? 9 C, 9?.O * r, l l ><?, C " 2.7 ->7,^ -+-/.5 72.^ cg.'" b 4,9 U2.2?-,4 l^r.2. 6, lbo.* b.b o,, 5, , jj«, " , ,,4 6,, 22,7 2V. i, US, I , ,6 9o.7,8 6,5 4, 2. 29,b 4, 4, 56, , 6,8 84, ^7, ,? 57, 7,5 76,9 7,? 6.V S , c*,2 9,6 9,? 97,7, 7,6 5, 24,9,, 5, * ,.9 *. lift l't 7 5,4 4.e lbo.l 7, ,6 82, ,5 9. p C2.9 9,5 U8. 26.b.'? " , , 9?, ,5 4,,7 2,7 *7, i 7. <L 72,v 76, 76,9 SI S , ,.4 6, Il# J ,, tf ,7 67, 89,? 9, h 9,?. 97,fc.5 7.& 5,4 24,9. 5, H. isa b. 76.b 6, 6.b 85, , b 9, , I2i 4, *, 52, ntains revisions beginning with 97. ( 97S)

122 2 G. Experimental Data and Analyses Composite Indexes (NOV.) (OC.) (JULY) (AUG.) (JULYHAR.! (MAY)(FEB.) III Ml III m m in in mill in m in Old Indexes of 2 Leading Indicators (series, 5, 6,, 2, 6, 7, 9, 2, 29,, ) III (NOV.) (NOV.) Ifl II N Index: 967= Illllll Ratio Scale Reverse trend adjusted 7 V 8. rior to trend adjustment hi til i Hi n n Ii Ii i ii i II In i n i Ii nl in in Series 8: Jan Feb Mar Apr rl E>79.6 Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Series 8: rllo.l H)O Current high values are indicated by H); "r" indicates revised. ireverse trend adjusted index contains the same trend as the index of 5 coincident indicators (series 82). 2 Excludes series 2, 6,, and for which data are not yet available.

123 G. Experimental Data and Analyses Continued Recession Comparisons: Current and Selected Historical atterns HOW O READ CYCLICAL COMARISON CHARS hese charts show graphically, for selected indicators, the path of the current business contraction beginning with the tentative peak date, November 97. (his date is based on the deflated composite index of coincident indicators BCD series 825.) o set the current cyclical movements into historical perspective, cyclical paths over generally similar historical periods are shown. he grajiiic presentations of the data for the selected periods are superimposed according to a special chart design, explained below: his number indicates latest calendar month of data plot ted ( 2 = December.) Design ation s: "Coincident,» "Leading," "Lagging," and "Unclassified" indicate the NBER timing classification for the series.. he objective of the chart is to compare the pattern of the current business contra c ti on with c orre spon din g historical patterns to facilitate critical assessment of the amplitude, duration, and severity of the indicators current movements. hi s scale shows deviations (percent differences) from reference pea k levels. 2. he vertical line represents reference peak dates. he current business contraction, beginning with the tentative business cycle high in November 97, and the corresponding historical periods, beginning with 957 and November 969, are presented so that their peak dates are placed along this vertical line. his scale shows actual series units and applies only to the current business cycle (heavy solid line).. he horizontal line represents the level of data at the current tentative business cycle high (November 97). It also represents data levels at the selected earlier business cycle peaks, 957 and November 969. he peak levels are aligned along the horizontal line for each business recession depicted. I I I I M I r I t I t Months from reference peaks his scale measures time in months before (negative side) and after (positive side) business cycle peak dates. 4. For most series, deviations (percent differences) from the current peak level are computed and plotted. For series measured in percent units (such as the unemployment rate), these units (actual data) are plotted rather than deviations from reference peak levels. he table on the right shows the numerical values of these deviations. 5. For series that move counter to movements in general business activity (e.g., the unemployment rate), an inverted scale is used; i.e., declines in data are shown as upward movements in the plotted lines, and increases in data, as downward movements in plotted lines. 6. In each chart four curves are shown. One curve describes the current business contraction (heavy solid line ). wo curves describe the 957 and 969 business recessions (starred line:*-*and knotted line: _, respectively). he final curve (broken line ) represents the median pattern of the five post-world War II recessions (tho s e with peaks in 94S, 95, 957, i96 and I969). Deviations from reference peaks for all post- World War II recession periods and the preceding year are presented in the adjacent table. In addition, actual values are shown for the current period. 7. he business cycle (reference) peaks used in these charts are those designated by the National Bureau of Economic Research as follows: Nov.l94 (lvq 94B), 95( 95) 957 (IIIQ 957), i96 (IIQ I96), Nov. 969 (IVQ 969). NOE: November 97 is not designated a business cycle peak. his tentative, benchmark date for the current business recession has selected on the basis of the performance pattern of the deflated composite index of five coincident indicators ~^D sesess? It as a means of current economic analysis and may be changed as more information becomes available.

124 G. Experimental Data and Analyses Continued Recession Comparisons: Current and Selected Historical atterns 825. Five coincident indicators, deflated I Coincident " Deviations from preced. peak ercent Actual data for current cycle MOS. FROM RFIF. EAK 7 8 DEVI- AIONS FROM /7 SERIE k CURREN ACUAL DAA ; =inn MONH AMD YEAR 6/74 7/74 I I I I I I I I I I I II I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I II 4. Employees on nonagricultural payrolls Coi Deviations from preced. peak Actual data for current cycle -i o 4 9 in k -k /74 9/74 /74 /74 77,5(X /74 /7 5 2/75 /75 77,OO( Ik k SERIE n l ~ 4 I-IOUS /7 5 5/75 6/75 6/74 7/74 8/74 9/74 /74 / ,5O< 76,OO( 75,5O( 75,oa 74,5a , #n /74 /75 2/75 / Industrial production index i SERIE S k7 967= /7 5 5/75 6/75 6/74 7/74 4. Unemployment rate, total (inverted) Actual data (percent) -I 9 in k /74 9/74 /74 / in /74 /75 2/75 / Ik f>. 4/75 5/7 5 6/ ROM R rr. ACUAL DAA FROM /7 CURREN ACUAL AA MONH AN VF.AR SERIES 4 ERCE I /74 7/74 /74 9/74 /74 /74 957' I /74 /75 2/75 /75 ii i ii Months from reference peaks /75 5/75 6/7 5 I I I I I I I I I I I M I I I» I M I I»» Months from reference peaks NOE: ABLES SHOWING DEVIAIONS FROM EAK LEVELS FOR ALL OS-WORLD WAR II CYCLES ARE SHOWN IN HE JANUARY ISSUE FOR HFSE SERIFS. NOVEMBER 97 IS NO DESIGED A BUSINESS CYCLE EAKO HIS ENAIVE, BENCHMARK DAE FOR HE CURREN BUSINESS RECESSION HAS FF.fl SFLFCf ON JIE BASIS OF HE ERFORMANCE AF,RM OF HE DEFLAED COMOSIE INDEX OF FIVE COINCIDEN! NDICAORS--BCD SERIES 825. I SERVES AS A MEANS OF CURREN ECONOMIC ALYSIS AM MAY BE CHANGED AS MORE INFORMAION BECOMES AVAILABLE. 4

125 G. Experimental Data and Analyses Continued Recession Comparisons: Current and Selected Historical atterns Deviations from preced. peak ercent - + Actual data for current cycle 4. MOS. FROM REF. flak 7 8 DEVI- AIONS FROM /7 CURREN ACUAL DAA SERIES HOURS MONH AND YEAR 6/7 4 Ilk n I II I I I II I I I I 9. Stock prices, 5 common stocks A l Deviations from preced. peak Actual data for current cycle - -2 o # /74 9/74 /74 /74 2/74 /7 5 2/75 /75 4/75 5/ 7 5 6/7 5 OO _R 9.2 Q SERIE r = /74 7/74 8/74 9/74 /74 / Initial claims for State unemployment insurance (inverted) ercent -i /74 /7 5 2/75 /7 5 4/75 5/75 6/75 7/75»75 SERIE S 5 HOUS /74 7/74 #OO /74 9/74 /74 / #5O +6 4OO /74 /75 2/75 /75 4/75 5/7 5 6/75 ~ SERIE S = /74 7/ OO + -J+2 5OO >55O /74 9/74 /74 /74 2/74 /75 2/7 5 / ii i M it Hi /75 5/75 6/75 I I Months from reference peaks Months from reference peaks NOE: ARLES SHOWING DEVIAIONS FROM EAK LEVELS FOR ALL OS-WORLD WAR II CYCLES ARE SHOWN IN HE JANUARY ISSUE FOR HESE SERIES. NOVEMBER 97 IS NO DESIGED A BUSINESS CYCLE EAK. HIS ENAIVE, BENCHMARK DAE FOR HE CURREN BUSINESS RECESSION HAS.EEN SEIECED ON HE BASIS OF HE ERFORMANCE AERN OF HE DEFLAED COMOSIE INDEX OF FIVE COINCIDEN I NO ICAORS--BCD SERIES 825. I SERVES AS A MEANS OF CURREN ECONOMIC ALYSIS AND MAY BE CHANGED AS MORE INFORMAION BECOMES AVAILABLE, 5

126 6 G. Experimental Data and Analyses Continued Recession Comparisons: Current and Selected Historical atterns "I! 44. Unemployment rate, persons unemployed 5 weeks and over (inverted) I I Lagging I «Actual data (percent) MOS. FROM REF. EAK ACUAL DAA FROM /7 CURREN ACUAL DAA SERIF! ; 44 F.RCF.N MONH AM YF.AR I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I 8. Corporate profits after taxes, 958 dollars Deviations from perced. peak Actual data for current cycle fr\ fl /7* 7/74 8/7U 9/74 /7U /74 2/7+ /75 2/75 /75 I+/75 5/75 6/75, > RR5 FROM R"F. EAK DEVI- AIONS FROM /7 CURREN ACUAL DAA SERIES 8 RIL. OL. 7.7 QUARER Aii YEAR II/ ' I I / IV/ / Vendor performance, companies reporting slower deliveries J Leading MOS. FROM R"F. EAK ACUAL A A FROM /7 CURREN ACUAL AA SERIES 2 ERCEN f NH AND VEAR. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment 7 p> 7G /7 4 7/ IS 9 f> /7 4 9/74 ID/74 /74 2/74 /75 2/75 /7 5 4/7 5 5/7 5 6/ MOS. FROM RfiF. EAK DEVI- AIONS FROM /7 CURREN ACUAL AA MONH AM YEAR + 5 > 4 - -J 2 7 R in SERIE > RIL. OL , /74 7/74 8/74 9/74 /74 /74 2/74 /75 2/75 /75-5 HO # Months from reference peaks 7 I. in /75 5/75 6/75 I t I I I I I It I I I I i I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I Months from reference peaks NOE: NOVEMBER 97 IS NO DESIGED A BUSINESS CYCLE EAK. HIS ENAIVE, BENCHMARK DAE FOR HE CURREN BUSINESS RECESSION HAS REEN SELECE ON HE BASIS OF HE ERFORMANCE AERN OF HE DEFLAED COMOSIE fndex OF FIVE COINCIDEN IND!CAORS--BCD SERIES 825. I SERVES AS A MEANS OF CURREN ECONOMIC ALYSIS AND MAY BE CHANGED AS MORE INFORMA!ON BECOMES AVAILABLE.

127 ALHABEICAL INDEX-SERIES FINDING GUIDE Series titles (See complete titles in "itles and Sources of Series," following this index) Series number Current ssue (page numbers) Charts ables Historical Series data descriptions (issue date) (issue date) Series titles (See complete titles in "itles and Source:; of Series," following this index) Series number Currer t issue (page n irnbers) Charts ables Historical Series data descriptions (issue date) (issue date) A Accession rate, manufacturing Anticipations and intentions Business expenditures, new plant and equipment... Business expenditures, new plant and equipment, Dt Capacity, manufacturers' adequacy Consumer sentiment, index Employees, manufacturing and trade, Dl Inventories, manufacturers', book value Inventories, manufacturers', condition of Inventories, manufacturing and trade, Dl Orders, new, manufacturing, Dl rices, selling, manufacturing, Dl rices, selling, manufacturing and trade, Dl rices, selling, retail trade, Dl rices, selling, wholesale trade. Dl rofits, net, manufacturing and trade, Dl Sales, manufacturers' Sales, net, manufacturing and trade, Dl Automobiles Expenditures, personal consumption, NIA Gross auto product, constant dollars, NIA Balance of payments Balances Banking and other capital transactions, net Current account Current account and long-term capital Goods and services Goods, services and remittances D Government grants and capital transactions, net Liabilities, liquid Liabilities, liquid and nonliquid Liquidity, net Merchandise trade Reserve position, U.S. official Reserve transactions balance Exports Goods and services Income on U.S. investments abroad Investment, foreign direct, in the U.S Investment income, military sales and services Merchandise, adjusted Military sales to foreigners Orders, new, manufacturers' durable goods Orders, new, nonelectrical machinery Securities, U.S.. purchases by foreigners otal, excluding military aid ransportation and services, receipts ravelers, foreign, receipts from Imports Goods and services Income on foreign investment in the U.S Investment income of foreigners, military expenditures and services Investments abroad, U.S. direct Merchandise, adjusted, excluding military Military expenditures abroad, U.S Securities, foreign, U.S. purchases otal, general ransportation and services, payments for ravelers abroad, U.S., payments by Bank loans to businesses, loans outstanding Bank loans to businesses, net change Bank rates - See Interest rates. Banking and other capital transactions, net, BO Bonds-See Interest rates. Borrowing - See Credit. Budget - See Government. Building - See Construction. Building permits, new private housing Business equipment, ratio to consumer goods Business expenditures, new plant and equipment Business expenditures, new plant and equipment, Dl... Business failures, current liabilities Business formation Business incorporations Business inventories - See Inventories. Business loans - See Bank loans. Buying policy, production materials Canada - See International comparisons. Capacity, manufacturers', adequacy of Capacity, ratio of output to Capital appropriations, manufacturing, backlog Capital appropriations, mfg., newly approved Capital appropriations, newly approved, Dl Capital consumption allowances, NIA Capital investment - See Investment, capital. Capital investment commitments, Cl Cash flow, net, corporate, constant dollars Cash flow, net, corporate, current dollars C 2 *6 D D D45 D D46 D466 D464 D * D D JO J7,4, !5 ; : 5 6 ii , ,4 5 26, ,4, , K, "A ' 8' 8' 8 8" 8* j 8' , /75 2/7-2/74 /75 /75 l?/74 /75 /75 2/74 2/74 2/74 2/74 2/74 2/74 ' 774 / /74 9/74 7/74 7/74 7/74 7/74 7/74 7/74 7/74 7/74 7/74 /75 7/74 7/74 7/74 /75 7/7 7/74 7/74 7/74 4/74 5/74 7/74 /75 /75 7/74 7/74 /75 7/74 7/74 7/74 7/74 7/74 /75 /75 7/74 4/75 4/75 7/74 4/75 /75 2/74 2/74 4/75 6/75 6/75 /74 /75 8/74 5/74 5/74 5/74 /74 5/74 8/74 8/74 8/68 /68 /68 /68 /68 /68 /68 /68 /68 /68 /68 /68 /68 /68 /68 /68 /68 /69 8/68# /72 /72 4/69 /68 /68 /68 2/74 /68... /69 /72 /72 Civilian labor force, total Coincident indicators, five, Cl Coincident indicators, five, Cl, rate of change Coincident indicators, five, deflated, Cl Commercial and industrial loans outstanding Commercial and industrial loans outstanding, not change. Compensation Compensation, average hourly, all employees, private nonfarm Compensation, average hourly, all employees, private nonfarm, percent change Compensation of employees, NIA Compensation of employees, as percent of national income NIA Compensation, real average hourly, all employees, private nonfarm Compensation, real average hourly, all employees, private nonfarm, percent change Earnings, average hourly, production workers, private nonfarm Earnings, average hourly, production workers. private nonfarm, percent change Earnings, real average hourly, production workers, private nonfarm Earnings, real average hourly, production workers, private nonfarm, percent change Earnings, real spendable, average weekly Wage and benefit decisions, first year Wage and benefit decisions, life of contract Wages and salaries, mining, mfg., and construction.. Composite indexes Coincident indicators Five coinciders Five coinciders, deflated Five coinciders, rate of change Lagging indicators, six Leading indicators Capital investment commitments Inventory investment and purchasing Marginal employment adjustments rofitability Sensitive financial flows welve leaders, original trend welve leaders, reverse trend adjusted Construction Building permits, new private housing Contracts, total value Contracts awarded for commercial and indus. bldgs.. Expenditures, business, and machinery and equipment sales Housing starts Residential structures, GDI, constant dot., NIA... Residential structures, GDI, current dollars, NIA... Consumer goods, ratio of business equipment to Consumer installment debt Consumer installment debt, net change Consumer installment loans, delinquency rate Consumer prices - See also International comparisons. All items All items, change in Commodities less food Food Services Consumer sentiment, index Consumption expenditures, personal - See ersonal consumption expenditures. Contracts and orders, plant and equipment Corporate profits - See rofits. Costs - See Labor costs and rice indexes. Credit Bank loans to businesses, change in Borrowing, total private Commercial and industrial loans outstanding Consumer installment debt Consumer installment debt, net change Consumer installment loans, delinquency rate Mortgage debt, change in Current account, balance, BO Current account and long-term capital, balance, BO... D Defense Contract awards, military prime Military expenditures abroad, U.S., BO Military sales to foreigners, BO Obligations incurred, procurement Obligations incurred, total Orders, new, defense products Orders, new, defense products industries urchases of goods and services, NIA Deficit - See Government. Deflators - See rice indexes. Delinquency rate, consumer installment loans Depreciation, NIA Diffusion indexes Business expenditures, new plant and equipment... Capital appropriations, new, manufacturing C 28 28A C 74 74C 74 74C C D , , ,4 4 56, ,9 4 6,4 6 4, , , , r A 97 6/75 5/74 6/74 5/74 4/75 4/75 4/75 4/75 /74 /74 4/75 4/75 /75 /75 /75 /75 2/75 /74 /74 8/74 5/74 5/74 6/74 5/74 5/74 5/74 5/74 5/74 5/74 5/74 5/74 4/75 6/75 8/74 4/75 9/74 9/74 /75 /75 /75 4/74 7/75 7/75 7/75 7/75 7/75 /75 4/75 4/75./74 4/75 /75 /75 4/74 4/75 7/74 7/74 4/74 7/74 7/74 4/74 4/74 8/74 8/72 /74 4/74 /74 2/74 5/74 4/72 /68 /68 /72 /72 /72 /72 /69 /69 /72 /72 6/72 6/72 6/72 6/72 /72 6/72 6/72 7/68 /68 /68 /68 5/74 5/74 4/69 9/68# 6/72 /69 /68 /72 /72 /72 /68 9/68 /72 7/64 /72 /72 /72 /72 9/68* /69 /72 /69 /68 Denotes series on the 966 NBER "short list" of indicators. GDI, gross private domestic investment; and NIA, national income and product account. #he "number" for this series title was changed since the publication date shown. BO means balance of payments; Cl, composite index; Dl, diffusion indt 7

128 ALHABEICAL INDEX-SERIES FINDING GUIDE-Continued Series titles (See complete titles in "itles and Sources of Series," following this index) Series number Current issue (page numbers) Charts ables Histor ca data [issue date) Series descriptions issue date) Series titles (See complete titles in "itles and Sources of Series," following this index) Series number Current issue (page numbers) Charts ables Historical Series data descriptions issue date) issue date) Diffusion indexes-con. Employees, manufacturing and trade Employees on nonagricultural payrolls Employees on nonagricultural payrolls, components. Industrial materials prices Industrial materials prices, components Industrial production Industrial production, components Initial claims, avg. wkly., unemployment insurance.. Inventories, manufacturing and trade Orders, new, durable goods industries Orders, new, durable goods industries, components. Orders, new, manufacturing rices, 5 common stocks rices, selling, manufacturing rices, selling, manufacturing and trade rices, selling, retail trade rices, selling, wholesale trade rices, wholesale, manufactured goods rices, wholesale, manufactured goods, components. rofits, manufacturing rofits, net, manufacturing and trade Sales, net, manufacturing and trade Sales, retail stores Sales, retail stores, components Workweek, average, production workers, mfg Workweek, average, production workers, mfg., components Disposable personal income - See Income. E D446 D4 D4 D2 D2 D47 D47 D5 D45 D6 D6 D44 D9 D462 D D464 D58 D58 D4 D442 D444 D54 D54 Dl D A /74 2/75 /74 /75 4/74 2/74 /74 2/7^ /7 2/74 2/74 2/74 2/74 7/75 /75 2/74 2/74 /75 2/75 /68 4/69 6/69 /68 /68 /68 /68 /68 /68 6/69 /68 /68 6/72 jovernment-con. Government grants and capital transactions, BO Government purchases of goods and services, NIA Federal Government, constant dollars Federal Government, current dollars Federal Government, percent of GN Federal, State and local governments National defense State and local governments, constant dollars State and local governments, current dollars State and local governments, percent of GN Gross national product Auto product, gross, constant dollars, NIA GN, constant dollars, NIA GN, constant dollars, differences, NIA GN, constant dollars, percent changes, NIA GN, current dollars, NIA GN, current dollars, differences, NIA GN, current dollars, percent changes, NIA GN, gap (potential less actual) GN, potential, constant dollars er capita GN, constant dollars, NIA er capita GN, current dollars, NIA rice deflator, implicit, NIA rice deflator, implicit, differences, NIA rice deflator, implicit, percent changes, NIA... rice index, fixed weighted, gross private product, NIA rice index, fixed weighted, gross private product, change in, NIA Gross private domestic investment - See Investment, capital A A 249 *25 25B 25C *2 2B 2C B 2C 2 2C ,8,2, 42,6 65*" 9,2, ,76, , /74 /74 9/74 9/74 9/74 /74 /74 /74 /74 9/74 8/74 8/74 8/74 8/74 8/74 8/74 /75 /75 8/74 8/74 8/74 8/74 8/74 8/74 8/74 /7 /69 /69 /69 /69 /7 /69 /69 /69 /69 /69 /69 /69 /69 /69 /69 /69 /69 /69 Earnings - See Compensation. Employment and unemployment Accession rate, manufacturing Civilian labor force, total Employed persons in civilian labor force Employees, manufacturing and trade, Dl Employees on nonagricultural payrolls Employees on nonagricultural payrolls, components. Employees on nonagricultural payrolls, Dl Help-wanted advertising in newspapers Help-wanted advertising to persons unemployed Initial claims, average weekly, unemployment insurance Initial claims, avg. wkly, unemployment insur., Dl.. Layoff rate, manufacturing Man-hours in nonagricultural establishments Man-hours in nonagric. establishments., rate of chg... Marginal employment adjustments, Cl Overtime hours, production workers, mfg ersons engaged in nonagricultural activities Unemployed persons in civilian labor force, total... Unemployment rate, both sexes, 6-9 years Unemployment rate, females 2 years and over... Unemployment rate, 5 weeks and over Unemployment rate, insured, average weekly Unemployment rate, males 2 years and over Unemployment rate, married males, spouse present. Unemployment rate, Negro and other races Unemployment rate, total Unemployment rate, white Workweek, production workers, manufacturing... Workweek, production workers, mfg., components.. Workweek, production workers, manufacturing, Dl. Equipment - See Investment, capital. Exports - See Balance of payments and Foreign trade. F Federal funds rate Federal Government - See Government. Final sales-see Sales. Financial flows, sensitive, Cl Fixed weighted price index, NIA Foreign series - See International comparisons. Foreign trade - See also Balance of payments. Balance, goods and services, NIA Balance, merchandise trade Exports, goods and services, NIA Exports, merchandise, excl. military aid shipments.. Imports, goods and services, NIA Imports, merchandise Net exports of goods and services, NIA Net exports of goods and services, percent of GN, NIA France - See International comparisons. Free reserves G Government - See also Balance of ayments and Defense. Budget, NIA Federal expenditures Federal receipts Federal surplus or deficit Government surplus or deficit, total *4 D4 D * *4 847 D D A , , , ,4 6 2, /75 6/75 6/75 2/74 2/75 2/75 /75 /75 6/75 4/74 '75 /75 /75 5/74 2/75 6/75 6/75 6/75 6/75 6/75 /75 6/75 6/75 6/75 6/75 6/75 2/75 2/75 6/74 5/74 8/74 9/74 /75 9/74 /75 9/74 /75 9/74 9/74 /74 8/74 8/74 8/74 /74 8/68 4/72 4/72 /68 8/68 2/74 6/69 6/69 8/68# 8/68# 8/68# 2/74 4/72 4/72 4/72 4/72 4/72 6/69 4/72 4/72 4/72 4/72 4/72 8/68 /7 /69 /72 7/68# 7/68# 7/68# /69 Help-wanted advertising in newspapers Help-wanted advertising, ratio to number of persons unemployed Hours of production workers, manufacturing Average weekly overtime Average workweek Components Diffusion index. Housing Housing starts Housing units authorized by local bldg. permits Res dential structures, constant dollars, GDI, NIA. Res dential structures, current dollars, GDI, NIA.. Res dential structures, percent of GN, GDI, NIA. Vacancy rate, rental housing Implicit pi ice deflator, GN Differences ercent changes Imports - See Balance of payments and Foreign trade. ncorng Connpensation of employees, NIA Connpensation of employees, as percent of national income, NIA Connpensation, average hourly, all employees, vate nonfarm Connpensation, average hourly, all employees, pr vate nonfarm, percent change Compensation, real average hourly, all employees, private nonfarm Compensation, real average hourly, all employees, private nonfarm, percent change Disposable personal income, constant dollars, NIA.. Disposable personal income, current dollars, NIA... Disposable personal income, per capita, constant dollars, NIA Disposable personal income, per capita,curr.dol., NIA Earnings, average hourly, production workers. private nonfarm Earnings, average hourly, production workers, private nonfarm, percent change Earnings, real average hourly, production workers. private nonfarm Earnings, real average hourly, production workers, private nonfarm, percent change Earnings, real spendable, average weekly Income on foreign investments in U.S., BO Income on U.S. investments abroad, BO Interest, net, NIA Interest, net, percent of national income, NIA Investment income, military sales and services, BO. Investment income of foreigners, military expenditures and services, BO National income, NIA ersonal income, monthly ersonal income, NIA rofits, corporate, and inventory valuation adjustment, NIA rofits, corporate, and inventory valuation adjustment, percent of national income, NIA Dl 28 * A B 2C 28 28A C C C 74 74C A * A , , , /75 /75 2/75 2/75 2/75 4/75 4/75 9/74 9/74 9/74 5/74 8/74 8/74 8/74 /74 /74 4/75 4/75 4/75 4/75 8/74 8/74 9/74 9/74 /75 /75 /75 /75 2/75 /75 /75 /74 /74 7/74 7/74 8/74 8/74 8/74 /74 /74 2/74 2/74 8/68 6/72 4/69 /69 /69 /72 /69 /69 /69 /69 /69 /72 /72 /72 /72 /69 /69 /69 /69 6/72 6/72 6/72 6/72 /72 /69 /69 /69 7/68 /69 /69 /69 'Denotes series on the 966 NBER "short list" of indicators. #he "number" for this series title was changed since the publication date shown. BO means balance of payments; Cl, composite index; Dl, diffusion index; GDI, gross private domestic investment; and NIA, national income and product account. 8

129 ALHABEICAL INDEX-SERIES FINDING GUIDE-Continued Series titles (See complete titles in "itles and Sources of Series," following this index) Series number Current issue (page numbers) Charts ables Historical Series data escriptions issue date) issue date) Series titles (See complete titles in "itles and Sources of Series," following this index) Series number Curren issue (page numbers) Charts ables Historical Series data descriptions issue date) issue date) Income-Con. roprietors' income, NIA roprietors' income, pet. of national income, NIA.. Rental income of persons, NIA Rental income of persons, percent of national income, NIA Wage and benefit decisions, first year Wage and benefit decisions, life of contract Wages and salaries, mining, mfg., and construction.. Industrial materials prices Industrial materials prices, components Industrial materials prices, Dl Industrial production - See also International comparisons. U.S., components U.S., Dl U S index U S rate of change Insured unemployment Avg. wkly. initial claims for unemployment insur... Avg. wkly. initial claims for unemployment insur., Dl Average weekly insured unemployment rate Interest, net, NIA Interest, net, as percent of national income, NIA Interest rates Business loans, short-term, bank rates Corporate bond yields Federal funds rate Mortgage yields, residential Municipal bond yields rime rate charged by banks reasury bill rate reasury bond yields International comparisons Consumer prices Canada France Italy Japan United Kingdom United States West Germany Industrial production Canada France Italy Japan OECD, European countries United Kingdom United States West Germany Stock prices Canada France Italy Japan United Kingdom United States West Germany Inventories Business inventories, change in, NIA Durable goods Nondurable goods otal constant dollars otal, current dollars otal, percent of GN Finished goods, book value, manufacturers' Inventories to sales, ratio, mfg. and trade Inventory investment and purchasing, Cl Inventory valuation adjustment - See rofits. Manufacturers', book value Manufacturers', condition of Manufacturing and trade, book value Manufacturing and trade, change in Manufacturing and trade, Dl Materials and supplies, manufacturers', change in. book value Materials purchased, higher inventories roduction materials, buying policy Investment, capital Capital appropriations, manufacturing, backlog... Capital appropriations, new, manufacturing Capital appropriations, new, manufacturing, Dl... Capital investment commitments, Cl Construction contracts, commercial and industrial.. Construction contracts, total value Construction expenditures, business, and machinery and equipment sales Equipment, business, ratio to consumer goods Gross private domestic investment, NIA Equipment, producers' durable Inventories, business, change in - See Inventories. Nonresidential, total, constant dollars Nonresidential, total, current dollars Nonresidential, total, percent of GN Structures, nonresidential Structures, residential, constant dollars Structures, residential, current dollars Structures, residential, percent of GN otal A A *2 D2 D2 D47 D *5 D A * A *7 * D D A A , , , , , ,4 28, , , ,42,67 76, , /74 /74 /74 /74 /74 /74 8/74 /74 /74 /75 /75 /74 6/75 4/74 /75 /74 /74 7/74 6/74 6/74 6/74 6/74 6/74 6/74 6/74 /74 /74 /74 /74 /74 7/75 /74 7/74 /74 /74 7/74 /74 /74 /75 /74 /74 /74 /74 /74 /74 2/74 /74 /74 /74 9/74 9/74 9/74 4/74 2/74 5/74 /75 /75 2/74 2/74 2/74 4/74 4/75 /74 5/74 5/74 5/74 5/74 6/75 8/74 /75 9/74 9/74 9/74 9/74 9/74 9/74 9/74 9/74 9/74 /69 /69 /69 /69 6/72 6/72 7/68 4/69 4/69* /68 /68 6/69 6/69 6/69 /69 /69 2/74 7/64 /7 7/64 7/64 /7 7/64 7/64 9/72 9/72 9/72 9/72 9/72 9/72 /72 /72 /72 /72 /72 /68 /72 /69 /69 /69 /69 9/68 2/69 /68 /68 2/69 2/69 /68 9/68 2/74 2/74 9/68# /68 /69 /69 /69 /69 /69 /69 /69 nvestment, capital-con. Orders, new, capital goods industries, nondefense... lant and equipment, contracts and orders lant and equipment, new business expenditures... lant and equipment, new business expenditures, Dl nvestment, foreign, BO Foreign direct investments in the U.S Foreign purchases of U.S. securities Income on foreign investments in the U.S Income on U.S. investments abroad Investment income of foreigners, military expenditures and services Investment income, U.S., military sales and services. U.S. direct investments abroad U.S. purchases of foreign securities taly - See International comparisons. Japan - See International comparisons. J L Labor cost per unit of gross product Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing Labor cost per unit of output, total private economy... Labor cost per unit of output, total private economy, percent change Labor cost, price per unit of Labor force - See Employment and unemployment. Lagging indicators, six, Cl Layoff rate, manufacturing Leading indicators- See Composite indexes. Liabilities, liquid, to all foreigners, BO Liabilities, liquid and certain nonliquid, to foreign official agencies, BO Liabilities of business failures Liquidity balance, net, BO Loans - See Credit. M Machinery - See Investment, capital. Man-hours in nonagricultural establishments Man-hours in nonagricuitural establishments, rate of chg.. Marginal employment adjustments, Cl Merchandise trade - See Balance of payments and Foreign trade. Military -See Defense. Money supply, change in Money supply (Ml) Money supply plus time deposits (M2) Money supply, time deposits and deposits at nonbank thrift institutions (M) Mortgage debt, net change Mortgage yields, residential National defense - See Defense. National Government - See Government. National income - See Income. New orders, manufacturers' Capital goods industries, nondefense Contracts and orders for plant and equipment Defense products Defense products industries Durable goods industries Components Diffusion index Export orders, durables except autos Export orders, nonelectrical machinery New orders, manufacturing, Dl Nonresidential fixed investment, GDI, NIA Constant dollars, total Current dollars, total ercent of GN, total Structures N OECD, European countries, industrial production Orders - See New orders and Unfilled orders. Output, labor cost per unit of Output per man-hour, total private economy Output per man-hour, total private economy, change in.. Output per man-hour, total private nonfarm Output to capacity, manufacturing Overtime hours of production, mfg., avg. weekly 24 * *6 D *62 6 6C * * *6 D6 D D A * C ,9 27,4, ,4 2 2, , , , , /74 4/75 2/74 2/74 7/74 7/74 /75 /75 7/74 7/74 7/74 7/74 8/74 8/74 4/75 4/75 8/74 5/74 /75 7/74 7/74 4/75 7/74 /75 /75 5/74 7/75 7/75 7/75 4/75 6/74 8/74 4/75 8/74 8/72 8/74 /74 4/74 5/74 2/74 9/74 9/74 9/74 9/74 /74 8/74 4/75 4/75 4/75 8/74 2/75 9/68 9/68 /68 /68 7/68 /68 /72 /72 /68 /68 8/68# 8/68# 8/68# /72 /72 /72 7/64 9/68 9/68 9/68# 9/68 8/68# /68 /69 /69 /69 /68 /72 /72 6/68 2/74 *Denotes series on the 966 NBER "short list" of indicators. #he "number" for this series title was changed since the publication date shown. BO means balance of payments; Cl, composite index; Dl, diffusion index; GDI, gross private domestic investment; and NIA, national income and product account. 9

130 2 ALHABEICAL INDEX-SERIES FINDING GUIDE-Continued Series titles (See complete titles in "itles and Sources of Series," following this index) Series number Current issue (page numbers) Historical Series data lescriptions issue date) issue date) Series titles (See complete titles in "itles and Sources of Series," following this index) Series number Current issue (page numbers) ables Historical Series data descriptions issue date) (issue date) ersonal consumption expenditures, NIA Automobiles Durable goods Durable goods, except autos Nondurable goods Services otal, constant dollars otal, current dollars otal, percent of GN ersonal income - See Income. lant and equipment - See also Investment, capital. Business expenditures for Business expenditures for, Dl Contracts and orders for otential gross national product rice indexes Consumer - See also International comparisons. All items All items, change in Commodities less food Food Services Deflators, NIA Fixed weighted, gross private product Fixed weighted, gross private product, change in... Implicit price deflator, GN Differences ercent changes Industrial materials Industrial materials, components Industrial materials, Dl Labor cost, price per unit of Stock - See also International comparisons. 5 common stocks 5 common stocks, Dl Wholesale All commodities Farm products Foods and feeds, processed Industrial commodities Industrial commodities, change in Manufactured goods Manufactured goods, components Manufactured goods, Dl rice to unit labor cost, manufacturing rices, selling Manufacturing, Dl Manufacturing and trade, Dl Retail trade, Dl Wholesale trade, Dl rime rate charged by banks roducers' durable equipment, GDI, NIA roduction - See Industrial production and GN. roduction materials, buying policy roduction of business equip, to consumer goods, ratio.. roductivity Output per man-hour, total private economy Output per man-hour, total private economy, change in Output per man-hour, total private nonfarm econ... rofits Corporate, after taxes, constant dollars Corporate, after taxes, current dollars Corporate, and inventory valuation adjustment, NIA Corporate, and inventory valuation adjustment, percent of national income, NIA Corporate, undistributed, plus inventory valuation adjustment, NIA Manufacturing, Dl Manufacturing and trade, net, Dl er dollar of sales, manufacturing rofitability, Cl Ratio, profits to income originating in corp. bus.... roprietors' income, NIA roprietors' income, percent of national income, NIA... urchased materials, percent of companies reporting higher inventories A 6 D C C 2 2B 2C 2 D2 D2 9 D C 58 D58 D58 D462 D D A 294 D4 D A 7,8 27,4, ,9 6 56, ,4, ,57 57,57 64, ,4 6 78,84 9, ,9 9 8, i/74 9/74 i/74 /74 9/74 9/74 9/74 9/74 2/74 2/74 4/75 /75 7/75 7/75 7/75 7/75 7/ /74 8/74 8/74 8/74 /74 /74 8/74 /74 /74 7/ /75 7/75 7/75 7/75 7/75 8/74 2/74 2/74 2/74 2/74 6/74 9/74 /74 /75 4/75 4/75 8/74 8/74 /74 /74 /74 /75 2/74 8/74 5/74 8/74 /74 /74 4/75 /69 /69 /69 /69 /69 /69 /69 /69 /68 /68 9/68 /69 /69 /69 4/69 4/69 /68 6/69 6/69 6/69 6/69 6/69 6/69 6/69 /68 /68 /68 /68 /68 /7 /69 2/74 /68 /72 6/68 /72 7/68 /69 /69 /69 /68 /69 7/68 /69 /69 jles Final sales, NIA Durable goods Nondurable goods otal, constant dollars otal, current dollars Inventories to sales, manufacturing and trade... Machinery and equipment sales and business construction expenditures Manufacturers' sales, total value Manufacturing and trade sales Manufacturing and trade sales, net, Dl Retail sales, constant dollars Retail sales, current dollars Components Diffusion index Saving, NIA Capital consumption allowances Gross saving, private and government ersonal saving ersonal saving to disposable personal income... rofits, undistributed corporate, plus inventory valuation adjustment Surplus or deficit, government Securities purchases, BO Foreign purchases of U.S. securities U.S. purchases of foreign securities Selling prices - See rices, selling. Sensitive financial flows, Cl Shipments, ratio of manufacturers' unfilled orders to. State and local government - See Government. Stock prices - See also International comparisons. 5 common stocks 5 common stocks, Dl Surplus - See Government. ransportation and other services, payments, BO... ransportation and other services, receipts, BO ravel ayments by U.S. travelers abroad, BO Receipts from foreign travelers in the U.S., BO. reasury bill rate reasury bond yields Unemployment Help-wanted advertising to persons unemployed, ratio Initial claims, avg. weekly, unemployment insur... Initial claims, avg. weekly, unemployment insur., Dl Layoff rate, manufacturing ersons unemployed, civilian labor force Unemployment rates Both sexes, 6-9 years Females, 2 years and over 5 weeks and over Insured, average weekly Males, 2 years and over Married males, spouse present Negro and other races otal White Unfilled orders, manufacturers' Durable goods industries Durable goods industries, change in Unfilled orders to shipments, durable goods indus.. United Kingdom - See International comparisons. Vacancy rate in rental housing Vendor performance D *54 D54 D *5 D » , ,42, ,9 6 2 io , , /74 /74 /74 8/74 2/74 8/74 /75 2/74 2/74 4/75 /75 /75 /74 /74 /74 8/74 /74 /74 7/74 7/74 5/74 8/74 /74 /74 /75 /75 7/74 7/74 6/74 6/74 /75 6/75 4/74 /75 6/75 6/75 6/75 6/75 /75 6/75 6/75 6/75 6/75 6/75 8/74 8/74 8/74 5/74 /74 /69 /69 7/68 2/69 9/68# /68 2/69 /68 6/72 6/72 /69 /69 /69 7/68 /69 /69 9/68 7/64 7/64 6/69 6/69 8/68# 4/72 4/72 4/72 4/72 6/69 4/72 4/72 4/72 4/72 4/72 9/68 9/68 9/68 /72 2/74 Rental income of persons, NIA Rental income of persons, as percent of national income, NIA Reserve position, U.S., BO Reserve transactions balance, BO Reserves, free Residential structures - See also Housing. Residential structures, constant dollars, GDI, NIA Residential structures, current dollars, GDI, NIA. Residential structures, percent of GN, GDI, NIA Salaries - See Compensation. 284A A /74 7/74 7/74 /74 9/74 9/74 9/74 /69 /72 /69 /69 Wages and salaries - See Compensation. West Germany - See International comparisons. Wholesale prices All commodities Farm products Foods and feeds, processed Industrial commodities Industrial commodities, change in Manufactured goods Manufactured goods, components Manufactured goods, Dl Workweek of production workers, manufacturing Workweek of production workers, mfg., components. Workweek of production workers, manufacturing, Dl C 58 D58 D58 D D ,57 57, , ,9 9 8,9 2 7/75 7/75 7/75 7/75 7/75 7/75 7/75 2/75 6/69 6/69 6/69 6/69 6/69 6/69 6/69 8/68 'Denotes series on the 966 NBER "short list" of indicators. #he "number" for this series title was changed since the publication date shown. BO means balance of payments; Cl, composite index; Dl, diffusion index; GDI, gross private domestic investment; and NIA, national income and product account.

131 ILES AND SOURCES OF SERIES Series are listed below according to the sections of this report in which they appear. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect relationships or order among series. See "Alphabetical Index-Series Finding Guide" to find chart and table page numbers for each series and the issues in which historical data and series descriptions appeared. "M" following a series title indicates monthly data; "Q" indicates quarterly data. Data apply to the whole period except when indicated by "EOM" (end of month) or "EOQ" (end of quarter). Following each source is an indication (A, B, etc.) of the charts and tables in which that series appears. hese charts and tables are listed in the table of contents. "D" preceding a series number indicates the series is a diffusion index. In section B, asterisks (*) are used to indicate series included in the 966 NBER "short list" of cyclical indicators. hese series are shown separately in chart B8. A National Income and roduct 2. Gross national product in current dollars (Q).- Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (A, B2, B8, E5) 25. Gross national product in 958 dollars (Q).- Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (A, B2, B8, E, E5) 2. Implicit price deflator, gross national product (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (A) 25. er capita gross national product in current dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the Census (A)?7. er capita gross national product in 958 dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the Census (A)!2. National income in current dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (A2)!22. ersonal income in current dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (A2).24. Disposable personal income in current dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (A2) 25. Disposable personal income in 958 dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (A2) 26. er capita disposable personal income in current dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (A2) 27. er capita disposable personal income in 958 dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (A2). ersonal consumption expenditures, total, in current dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (A) A. ersonal consumption expenditures as a percent of gross national product (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (A). ersonal consumption expenditures, total, in 958 dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (A, A) 2. ersonal consumption expenditures, durable goods, in current dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (A) 2. ersonal consumption expenditures, durable goods except automobiles, in current dollars (Q).- Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (A) 24. ersonal consumption expenditures, automobiles, in current dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (A) 26. ersonal consumption expenditures, nondurable goods, in current dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (A) 27. ersonal consumption expenditures, services, in current dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (A) 24. Gross private domestic investment, total (Q).- Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (A4) 24. Gross private domestic fixed investment, total nonresidential (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (A4) 24A. Gross private domestic fixed investment, total nonresidential as a percent of gross national product (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (A) 242. Gross private domestic fixed investment, nonresidential structures (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (A4) 24. Gross private domestic fixed investment, producers' durable equipment (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (A4) 244. Gross private domestic fixed investment, residential structures (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (A4) 244A. Gross private domestic fixed investment, residential structures as a percent of gross national product (Q). Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (A) 245. Gross private domestic investment, change in business inventories after valuation adjustment, all industries (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (A4, B4) 245A. Change in business inventories as a percent of gross national product (Q). Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (A) 246. Gross private domestic investment, change in business inventories, all industries, 958 dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (A) 247. Gross private domestic fixed investment, total nonresidential, in 958 dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (A) 248. Gross private domestic fixed investment, residential structures, in 958 dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (A) 249. Gross auto product in 958 dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (A) 25. Net exports of goods and services; national income and product accounts (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (A5) 25A. Net exports of goods and services as a percent of gross national product (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (A) 252. Exports of goods and services; national income and product accounts (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (A5) 25. Imports of goods and services; national income and product accounts (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (A5) 26. Government purchases of goods and services, total (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (A6) 262. Federal Government purchases of goods and services, total (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (A6) 262A. Federal Government purchases of goods and services as a percent of gross national product (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (A) 26. Federal Government purchases of goods and services, in 958 dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (A) 264. Federal Government purchases of goods and services, national defense (Q). Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (A6, D) 266. State and local government purchases of goods and services, total (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (A6) 266A. State and local government purchases of goods and services as a percent of gross national product (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (A) 267. State and local government purchases of goods and services, in 958 dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (A) 27. Final sales, durable goods (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (A7) 27. Change in business inventories, durable goods (Q). Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (A7) 27. Final sales (series 25 minus series 246), in 958 dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (A) 274. Final sales, nondurable goods, (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (A7) 275. Change in business inventories, nondurable goods (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (A7) 28. Compensation of employees (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (A8) 28A. Compensation of employees as a percent of national income (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (All) 282. roprietors' income (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (A8) 282A. roprietors' income as a percent of national income (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (All) 284. Rental income of persons (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (A8) 284A. Rental income of persons as a percent of national income (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (All) 286. Corporate profits and inventory valuation adjustment (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (A8) 286A. Corporate profits and inventory valuation adjustment as a percent of national income (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (All) 2

132 22 ILES AND SOURCES OF SERIES-Continued 288. Net interest (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (A8) 288A. Net interest as a percent of national income (Q).- Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (AID 29. Gross saving-private saving plus government surplus or deficit (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (A9) 292. ersonal saving (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (A9) 294. Undistributed corporate profits plus inventory valuation adjustment (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (A9) 296. Capital consumption allowances, corporate and noncorporate (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (A9) 298. Government surplus or deficit, total (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (A9) B Cyclical Indicators *. Average workweek of production workers, manufacturing (M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics (B, B8, E, E4) 2. Accession rate, manufacturing (M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics (B). Layoff rate, manufacturing (M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics (B) *5. Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance, State programs (M).-Department of Labor, Manpower Administration; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (B, B8, E) *6. Value of manufacturers' new orders, durable goods industries (M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census (B, B8, E, E4) 8. Index of construction contracts, total value (M).-McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company. (Used by permission. his series may not be reproduced without written permission from the source.) (B) 9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial buildings, floor space (M).-McGraw- Hill Information Systems Company; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. (Used by permission. his series may not be reproduced without written permission from the source.) (B) *. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment (M). Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, and McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and Bureau of Economic Analysis (B, B8). Newly approved capital appropriations,, manufacturing corporations (Q).-he Conference Board. (Used by permission. his series may not be reproduced without written permission from the source.) (B, E) *2. Index of net business formation (M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. (B, B8). Number of new business incorporations (M).-Dun and Bradstreet, Inc.; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. (B) 4. Current liabilities of business failures (M).-Dun and Bradstreet, Inc. (B6) 5. rofits (after taxes) per dollar of sales, all manufacturing corporations (Q).-Federal rade Commission and Securities and Exchange Commission; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (B5) *6. Corporate profits after taxes in current dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (B5, B8) *7. Index of price per unit of labor cost-ratio, index of wholesale prices of manufactured goods (unadjusted) to seasonally adjusted index of compensation of employees (sum of wages, salaries, and supplements to wages and salaries) per unit of output (M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis; Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (B5, B8) 8. Corporate profits after taxes in 958 dollars (Q).- Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (B5) *9. Index of stock prices, 5 common stocks (M).- Standard and oor's Corporation (B5, B8, E, F) 2. Change in book value of manufacturers' inventories of materials and supplies (M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census (B4) 2. Average weekly overtime hours of production workers, manufacturing (M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics (B) 22. Ratio of profits (after taxes) to income originating incorporate business (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (B5) *2. Index of industrial materials prices (M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics (B5, B8, E, E4) 24. Value of manufacturers' new orders, capital goods industries, nondefense (M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census (B) 25. Change in manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries (M). Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census (B4) 26. Buying policy-production materials, percent of companies reporting commitments 6 days or longer (M).-National Association of urchasing Management (B4) 28. New private housing units started, total (M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census (B) *29. Index of new private housing units authorized by local building permits (M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census (B, B8) *. Change in book value of manufacturing and trade inventories, total (M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the Census (B4, B8) 2. Vendor performance, percent of companies reporting slower deliveries (M).-urchasing Management Association of Chicago (B4). Net change in mortgage debt held by financial institutions and life insurance companies (M).- Institute of Life Insurance; Federal National Mortgage Association; Department of Housing and Urban Development, Government National Mortgage Association; National Association of Mutual Savings Banks; U.S. Savings and Loan League; and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (B6) 4. Net cash flow, corporate, in current dollars (Q).- Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (B5) 5. Net cash flow, corporate, in 958 dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (B5) 7. ercent of companies reporting higher inventories of purchased materials (M).-National Association of urchasing Management; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (B4) 9. ercent of consumer installment loans delinquent days and over (EOM).-American Bankers Assoc ation; (Bimonthly since December 964) (B( 4. Unemployment rate, married males, spouse preset (M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Stati tics, and Department of Commerce, Bureau of tr Census (B' *4. Number of employees on nonagricultural payroll establishment survey (M).-Department of Labc Bureau of Labor Statistics (B, B8, E, E< 42. otal number of persons engaged in nonagricultur activities, labor force survey (M).-Department i Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Department i Commerce, Bureau of the Census (B *4. Unemployment rate, total (M). Department i Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Department i Commerce, Bureau of the Census (B, B! *44. Unemployment rate, 5 weeks and over (M). Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, ar Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census (BB 45. Average weekly insured unemployment rate, Sta programs (M).-Department of Labor, Manpow Administration (B 46. Index of help-wanted advertising in newspapt (M).-he Conference Board (B *47. Index of industrial production (M).-Board of Gc ernors of the Federal Reserve System (B2, B8, E, E4, E5, F 48. Man-hours in nonagricultural establishments (M). Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics (B,E *52. ersonal income (M).-Department of Commen Bureau of Economic Analysis (B2, B 5. Wage and salary income in mining, manufacturii and construction (M).-Department of Commen Bureau of Economic Analysis (E *54. Sales of retail stores in current dollars (M).-Depa ment of Commerce, Bureau of the Census (B2, B8, E, E 55. Index of wholesale prices, industrial commoditi (M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Stat tics (B5, D< *56. Manufacturing and trade sales (M).-Department Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bure; of the Census (B2, B 57. Final sales (series 2 minus series 245) (Q).-Depa ment of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (B 58. Index of wholesale prices, manufactured goo (M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Stat tics (B5, D4, E, E 59. Sales of retail stores, 967 dollars (M).-Departme of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (E *6. Business expenditures for new plant and equipme total (Q). Department of Commerce, Bureau Economic Analysis (B, B8, C,C *62. Index of labor cost per unit of output, to manufacturing ratio, index of compensation employees in manufacturing (the sum of wages a salaries and supplements to wages and salaries) index of industrial production, manufacturi (M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of E( nomic Analysis, and the Board of Governors of t Federal Reserve System (B5, E

133 ILES AND SOURCES OF SERIES-Continued 6. Index of unit labor cost, total private economy (Q).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics (B5) 65. Manufacturers' inventories of finished goods, book value, all manufacturing industries (EOM).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census (B4) 66. Consumer installment debt (EOM).-Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. FRS seasonally adjusted net change added to seasonally adjusted figure for previous month to obtain current figure (B6) *67. Bank rates on short-term business loans, 5 cities (Q).-Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (B6, B8) 68. Labor cost (current dollars) per unit of gross product (958 dollars), nonfinancial corporations-ratio of current-dollar compensation of employees to gross corporate product in 958 dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (B5) 69. Manufacturers' machinery and equipment sales and business construction expenditures (industrial and commercial construction put in place) (M).- Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census (B) *7. Manufacturing and trade inventories, total book value (EOM).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the Census (B4, B8) *72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding, weekly reporting large commercial banks (M).-Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (B6, B8) 85. Change in U.S. money supply (demand deposits plus currency) [M] (M).-Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (B6) 9. Free reserves (member bank excess reserves minus borrowings) (M).-Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (B6) 96. Manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries (EOM).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census (B) 97. Backlog of capital appropriations, manufacturing (EOQ).-he Conference Board. (Used by permission. his series may not be reproduced without written permission from the source.) (B) 2. Change in U.S. money supply plus time deposits at commercial banks other than large CD's [M2] (M).-Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (B6). Change in U.S. money supply, plus time deposits at commercial banks other than large CD's, plus deposits at nonbank thrift institutions [M] (M).-Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (B6) 9. Average prime rate charged by banks (M).-Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (B6). otal funds raised by private nonfinancial borrowers in credit markets (Q).-Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (B6) 2. Net change in bank loans to businesses (M). Board of Governors; of the Federal Reserve System; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (B6) *. Net change in consumer installment debt (M).-Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (B6, B8) 4. Discount rate on new issues of 9-day reasury bills (M).-Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (B6) 5. Yield on long-term reasury bonds (M).-reasury Department (B6) 6. Yield on new issues of high-grade corporate bonds (M).-First Mational City Bank of New York and reasury Department (B6) 7. Yield on municipal bonds, 2-bond average (M).-he Bond Buyer (B6) 8. Secondary market yields on FHA mortgages (M).-Department of Housing and Urban Development, Federal Housing Administration (B6) 9. Federal funds rate (M).-Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (B6) *2. Gross national product in current dollars (Q). See in section A. *25. Gross national product in 958 dollars (Q). See in section A Change in business inventories (GN component) (Q). See in section A. 8. welve leading indicators-reverse trend adjusted composite index (includes series, 5, 6,, 2, 6, 7, 9, 2, 29,, and ) (M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (B7) 8. welve leading indicators-composite index prior to reverse trend adjustment (includes series, 5, 6,, 2, 6, 7, 9, 2, 29,, and ) (M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (B7) 8. Marginal employment adjustments-leading composite index (includes series, 2,, and 5) (M).- Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (B7) 84. Capital investment commitments-leading composite index (includes series 6,, 2, and 29) (M).- Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (B7) 85. Inventory investment and purchasing leading composite index (includes series 2, 25,, and 7) (M). Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (B7) 86. rofitability-leading composite index (includes series 6, 7, and 9) (M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (B7) 87. Sensitive financial flows-leading composite index (includes series, 85, 2, and ) (M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (B7) 82. Five coincident indicators-composite index (includes series 4, 4, 47, 52, and 56) (M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (B7, E5) 825. Five coincident indicators-deflated composite index (includes series 4, 4, 47, 52D, and 56D) (M).- Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (B7) 8. Six lagging indicators-composite index (includes series 44, 6, 62, 67, 7, 72) (M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (B7) C Anticipations and Intentions 6. Business expenditures for new plant and equipment, all industries (Q). See in section B. 4. Manufacturers' sales, total value (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census (C) 42. Manufacturers' inventories, total book value (EOQ).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census (C) 44. ercent of total book value of inventories held by manufacturers classifying their holdings as high, less percent classifying holdings as low (EOQ).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census (CD 46. ercent of total gross capital assets held by companies classifying their existing capacity as inadequate for prospective operations over the next 2 months, less percent classifying existing capacity as excessive (EOQ).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (C) 45. Index of consumer sentiment (Q).-University of Michigan, Survey Research Center (CD D44. New orders, manufacturing (Q).-Dun and Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. his series may not be reproduced without written permission from the source.) (C2) D442. Net profits, manufacturing and trade (Q).-Dun and Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. his series may not be reproduced without written permission from the source.) (C2) D444. Net sales, manufacturing and trade (Q).-Dun and Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. his series may not be reproduced without written permission from the source.) (C2) D446. Number of employees, manufacturing and trade (Q).-Dun and Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. his series may not be reproduced without written permission from the source.) (C2) D45. Level of inventories, manufacturing and trade (Q).-Dun and Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. his series may not be reproduced without written permission from the source.) (C2) D46. Selling prices, manufacturing and trade (Q).-Dun and Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. his series may not be reproduced without written permission from the source.) (C2) D462. Selling prices, manufacturing (Q).-Dun and Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. his series may not be reproduced without written permission from the source.) (C2) D464. Selling prices, wholesale trade (Q).-Dun and Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. his series may not be reproduced without written permission from the source.) (C2) D466. Selling prices, retail trade (Q).-Dun and Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. his series may not be reproduced without written permission from the source.) (C2) D Other Key Indicators 55. Index of wholesale prices, industrial commodities (M). See in section B. 58. Index of wholesale prices, manufactured goods (M). See in section B. 2. Fixed weighted price index, gross private product (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (D4) 25. Balance on goods and services; U.S. balance of payments (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (D2) 252. Exports of goods and services, excluding transfers under military grants; U.S. balance of payments (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (D2) 25. Imports of goods and services; U.S. balance of payments (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (D2) 264. Federal Government purchases of goods and services, national defense (Q). See in section A. 5. Merchandise trade balance (Series 52 minus series 52) (M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census (D) 52. Exports, excluding military aid shipments, total (M). Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census (D) 2

134 24 ILES AND SOURCES OF SERIES-Continued 56. Manufacturers' new orders for export, durable goods except motor vehicles and parts (M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census (D) 58. Index of export orders for nonelectrical machinery (M).-McGraw-Hill ublications Company, Economics Department (D) 52. General imports, total (M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census (D) 55. Balance on goods, services and remittances; U.S. balance of payments (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (D2) 57. Balance on current account; U.S. balance of payments (Q). Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (D2) 59. Balance on current account and long term capital; U.S. balance of payments (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (D2) 52. Net liquidity balance; U.S. balance of payments (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (D2) 522. Official reserve transactions balance; U.S. balance of payments (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (D2) 5. Liquid liabilities (excluding military grants) to all foreigners, total outstanding; U.S. balance of payments (EOQ).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (D2) 52. Liquid and certain nonliquid liabilities (excluding military grants) to foreign official agencies, total outstanding; U.S. balance of payments (EOQ).- Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (D2) 54. U.S. official reserve (assets) position, excluding military grants; U.S. balance of payments (EOQ).- Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (D2) 56. Merchandise exports, adjusted, excluding military grants; U.S. balance of payments (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (D2) 57. Merchandise imports, adjusted, excluding military; U.S. balance of payments (Q). Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (D2) 54. U.S. investment income, military sales, and other services exports, excluding military grants; U.S. balance of payments (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (D2) 54. Foreigners' investment income, military expenditures and other services imports; U.S. balance of payments (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (D2) 542. Income on U.S. investments abroad; U.S. balance of payments (Q). Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (D2) 54. Income on foreign investments in the U.S.; U.S. balance of payments (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (D2) 544. Receipts from foreign travelers in the U.S.; U.S. balance of payments (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (D2) 545. ayments by U.S. travelers abroad; U.S. balance of payments (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (D2) 546. Military sales to foreigners; U.S. balance of payments (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (D2) 547. U.S. military expenditures abroad; U.S. balance of payments (Q). Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (D2) 548. Receipts from transportation and other services; U.S. balance of payments (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (D2) 549. ayments for transportation and other services; U.S. balance of payments (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (D2) 56. Foreign direct investments in the U.S.; U.S. balance of payments (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (D2) 56. U.S. direct investments abroad; U.S. balance of payments (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (D2) 564. Foreign purchases of U.S. securities; U.S. balance of payments (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (D2) 565. U.S. purchases of foreign securities; U.S. balance of payments (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (D2) 57. Government grants and capital transactions, net; U.S. balance of payments (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (D2) 575. Banking and other capital transactions, net; U.S. balance of payments (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (D2) 6. Federal Government surplus or deficit; national income and product accounts (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (D) 6. Federal Government receipts; national income and product accounts (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (D) 62. Federal Government expenditures; national income and product accounts (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (D) 66. Defense Department obligations incurred, total, excluding military assistance (M).-Department of Defense, Fiscal Analysis Division; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (D) 62. Defense Department obligations incurred, procurement (M).-Department of Defense, Fiscal Analysis Division; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis ' (D) 625. Military prime contract awards to U.S. business firms and institutions (M).-Department of Defense, Directorate for Statistical Services; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (D) 647. New orders, defense products industries (M).- Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census (D) 648. New orders, defense products (M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census (D) 74. Index of average hourly earnings of production workers, private nonfarm economy-adjusted for overtime (in manufacturing only), interindustry employment shifts, and seasonally (M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics (D5) 74. Index of real average hourly earnings of production workers, private nonfarm economy-adjusted for overtime (in manufacturing only), interindustry employment shifts, and seasonality (M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics (D5) 745. Index of average hourly compensation, all employees, private nonfarm economy (Q).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics (D5) 746. Index of real average hourly compensation, all employees, private nonfarm economy (Q).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics (D5) 748. Negotiated wage and benefit decisions, all 'industries first year average (mean) changes (Q). Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics(D5) 749. Negotiated wage and benefit decisions, all industries average (mean) changes over life of contract (Q).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics (D5) 75. Index of wholesale prices, all commodities (M).- Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics(D4) 75. Index of wholesale prices, processed foods and feeds (M). Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics (D4) 752. Index of wholesale prices, farm products (M).- Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics(D4) 77. Index of output per man-hour, total private economy (Q).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics (D5) 78. Index of consumer prices, all items (M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics (D4, F.) 782. Index of consumer prices, food (M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics (D4) 78. Index of consumer prices, commodities less food (M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics (D4) 784. Index of consumer prices, services (M). Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics (D4) 84. otal civilian labor force, labor force survey (M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census (D6) 842. otal civilian employment, labor force survey (M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census (D6) 84. Number of persons unemployed, labor force survey (M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census (D6) 844. Unemployment rate, males 2 years and over, labor force survey (M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census (D6) 845. Unemployment rate, females 2 years and over, labor force survey (M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census (D6) 846. Unemployment rate, both sexes 6-9 years of age, labor force survey (M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census (D6) 847. Unemployment rate, white, labor force survey (M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census (D6) 848. Unemployment rate, Negro and other races, labor force survey (M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census (D6) 858. Index of output per man-hour, total private nonfarm (Q).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics (D5) 859. Real spendable average weekly earnings of production or nonsupervisory workers (with dependents) on private nonagricultural payrolls, 967 dollars (M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics (D5)