Roadmap to the French Balancing Target System

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1 Roadmap to the French Balancing Target System Vincent de Laharpe 1

2 Agenda Regulatory context Roadmap to the target Information provided to the market 2

3 Regulatory context 3

Timeline for European Balancing Network Code European

6 Aug 2010 Framework guideline ERGEG / ACER Approval EC

2014 18 Oct 2011 Network code ENTSOG 4 Nov 2011 26 Oct

Approval EC 1 Sept 2013 Comitology 12 months 3 months

4 Timeline for European Balancing Network Code European Balancing Network Code development Priority setting EC 6 Aug 2010 Framework guideline ERGEG / ACER Approval EC Implementation by early Jan 2013 Today Early Oct 2011 Network code ENTSOG 4 Nov Oct 2012 Review ACER Revision of NC ENTSOG End Feb 2013 Approval EC 1 Sept 2013 Comitology 12 months 3 months Reasonable time period 4 Shippers meeting

Balancing target system - Principles What sets the

Have primary responsability for balancing the

well-timed and reliable information Market based

in order to maintain the network within its

marginal price Wholesale short-term market In

5 Balancing target system - Principles What sets the European Balancing Network Code 1 - Network Users Have primary responsability for balancing the network by balancing their portfolios Sufficient, well-timed and reliable information Market based system 2 - TSOs Carry out the residual balancing in order to maintain the network within its operational limits Imbalances cashedout daily at marginal price Wholesale short-term market In priority by using short-term standardised products on the Exchange market 5

The design process of the French system A progressive process in close consultation with the French market Pending deliberation that will decide on the roadmad to

6 The design process of the French system A progressive process in close consultation with the French market Pending deliberation that will decide on the roadmad to comply with the European agenda Today WG WG WG WG WG Public consultation Deliberation WG meeting 6 Shippers meeting

7 Roadmap to the target 7

8 Roadmap to the target Mid-ranges North Mid-ranges South Today Roadmap Target = European NC 01/10/12 to 31/03/13 40% 40% Changes in imbalances cash-out 01/04/13 to 30/09/13 15% 01/10/13 to 30/04/14 01/05/14 to 30 /09/14 01/10/14 to 30 /04/15 30% 30% 25% 25% Same as today 25% 10% 10% Tolerances / 2 01/05/15 to 30 /04/20 No midranges From 01/05/20 No midranges Tolerances New tol. No tol. Daily cash-out prices P1 and P2 Introduction of DAP and MP Cumulated penalty price P3 0.5% at P2 6.3% at P1 Average imbalances cash-out 93% cumulated (net vol. goes in the storages) 14% 86% cumulated 4% at MP 41% at DAP 55% cumulated (1-X)% at MP X% at DAP 100% at MP 8

9 Marginal buy / sell price Marginal buy/sell price versus DAP from 1 August to 31 December 2012 MBP = greater of - the highest price of any GRTgaz trades - DAP + MSP = lesser of - the lowest price of any GRTgaz trades - DAP In this study case = 2.5%

10 Marginal buy / sell price Marginal buy/sell price versus P2 from 1 August to 31 December 2012 MBP = greater of - the highest price of any GRTgaz trades - DAP + MSP = lesser of - the lowest price of any GRTgaz trades - DAP In this study case = 2.5%

11 Information provided to the market 11

Intra-day information on the system status Network EOD imbalance indicator Estimated imbalance position of the network at the end of the gas day according to shippers nominations Available

12 Intra-day information on the system status Network EOD imbalance indicator Estimated imbalance position of the network at the end of the gas day according to shippers nominations Available on Smart GRTgaz since August 2012 (absolute position since October 2012) Publication of the indicator of gas day D starts from D-1 at 3pm and is updated each hour until 5 am of gas day D. 12

13 Intra-day information on the system status Forecast of daily consumptions Based on hourly forecasts since September 2011 Available by type of customer since October 2012 Forecasts are updated twice a day at 6:00 am and 2:00 pm Information on the past Published forecasts for each gas day D HMS Customers Consumption Forecast of HMS Customers Forecast of Public Distributions Public Distrib. Consumption D-1 D D+1 D+2 D+3 D+4 D+5 D+6 Industrial Customers Consumption except HMS HMS = highly modulated sites 13 Shippers nominations of customers consumption, except HMS. Forecast of Industrial Customers except HMS

14 Intra-day information on shippers portfolios Daily metered customers consumption Consumption distribution on GRTgaz network DM customers on GRTgaz network Currently : publication of hourly consumption 5 times a day From 1 May 2014 : hourly publication of hourly consumption. DM customers on distribution networks NDM customers on distribution networks Currently : no intraday information From 1 May 2014 : publication of hourly consumption twice a day at 1 pm (6 am to 10 am) and 5 pm (6 am to 2 pm) 14

Information on shippers portfolios Consumption forecast of NDM customers Consumption distribution on GRTgaz network Customers on GRTgaz network DM customers on DSO networks NDM customers on the

15 Information on shippers portfolios Consumption forecast of NDM customers Consumption distribution on GRTgaz network Customers on GRTgaz network DM customers on DSO networks NDM customers on the distribution network Currently : no intraday information From mid-2013 : publication of the coefficient k0. From 1 May 2014 : k0 + Publication of daily forecasts for each shippers portfolio, at D-1 and updated twice during the gas day D. 15

16 Focus on the coefficient k0 1 k factor & allocation of distrib. customer consumptions GRTgaz s measured total offtakes at public distrib. delivery stations 2 Calculated profiled (NDM) consumptions 3 Prof. Shp. n... Prof. Shp. 2 Prof. Shp. 1 DM Shp. n... DM Shp. 2 DM Shp. 1 k k prof. Shp. n... k prof. Shp. 2 k prof. Shp. 1 DM Shp. n... DM Shp. 2 DM Shp. 1 Allocation at D+1 : k = k1 Allocation at M+1 : k = k2 4 Allocation Shp. n (DM + k Prof.)... Shp. 2 (DM + k Prof.) Shp. 1 (DM + k Prof.) 5 DSOs measured DM consumption 16

17 Focus on the coefficient k0 k0 k but at D-1 & D from forecasted consumptions Calculated profiled (NDM) consumptions 1 k0 prof. Shp. n k0 prof. Shp. n GRTgaz s Forecasted total offtakes at public distrib. delivery stations 3 2 Prof. Shp. n... Prof. Shp. 2 Prof. Shp. 1 DM Shp. n... k0 (mid-2013)... k0 prof. Shp. 2 k0 prof. Shp. 1 DM Shp. n... 4 Consumption forecast (1 May 2014)... k0 prof. Shp. 2 k0 prof. Shp. 1 5 DM Shp. 2 DM Shp. 2 DM Shp. 1 DM Shp. 1 Shippers forecasted DM consumption From June

18 Information provision Imbalances cash-out Information provision vs roadmap 1 Oct to 31 March April 2013 to 30 Sept Oct to 30 April May 2014 to 30 Sept Oct to 30 April May 2015 to 30 April 2020 From 1 May 2020 Mid-ranges North H Mid-ranges North B 40% 40% 15% 25% 10% 10% No midranges No midranges Mid-ranges Southe 40% 30% 30% 25% 25% Tolerances Significant reduction in total tolerance volume New tolerances No tolerances Prices P1 and P2 used to cash-out imbalances outside mid-ranges and tolerances Mid-range Tolerance imbalance cashed-out at Daily Average Price (DAP) The share outside tolerance limits cashed-out at marginal price (MP) - Publication of the quantitative EOD imbalance indicator - Publication of forecasts per customer category Publication of k0 - D-1 and intraday forecasts of distribution NDM customers consumption per shipper - Intraday publication of distribution DM customers consumption - Hourly publication of transmission customers hourly readings 18

20 Marginal buy / sell price Definition given by the Network Code The marginal buy price (MBP) is the greater of : The highest of any trades in which the TSO is involved The daily average price (DAP) of all trades, plus a small adjustment The marginal sell price (MSP) is the lesser of : The lowest price of any trades in which the TSO is involved The daily average price (DAP) of all trades, minus a small adjustment Example for a gas day D : Price DAP + small adjustment WAP DAP - small adjustment MBP = highest of TSO s trades MSP = DAP small adjustment Shippers trades TSO s trades 9 am 18 pm

21 GRTgaz market balancing actions Current situation : Since 1 August 2012, DA session has become optional. Intervention volumes of WD and WE sessions based on the EOD imbalance indicator value, capped by a maximum volume. Interventions made by a robot during a 15 North Zone South Zone WD MWh MWh WE MWh MWh window : 3:45 pm to 4:00 pm for the WD session and 5:00 pm to 5:15 pm for the WE session From 1 April 2013 : Proportional interventions No change of maximum volumes for WE sessions Extension of the intervention windows to 30 System parameters easily adjusted if needed Further evolutions to the target To be decided following feedback in 2013 and

The impact of regulatory changes on trading activities. Platts European Gas Summit September 29 30, 2014 Kempinski Hotel Bristol Berlin, Germany

The impact of regulatory changes on trading activities Platts European Gas Summit September 29 30, 2014 Kempinski Hotel Bristol Berlin, Germany www.chappuishalder.com Twitter : @ch_retail A significant