Buckeye Funds Consumer Staples Market Update

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1 Market Update Ryan Daulton Miheer Desai Kurt Elsasser

2 Agenda Sector Overview Economic Analysis Financial Analysis Conclusion & Recommendation 2

3 Investment Thesis Preview Our thoughts: Sector has outperformed the broader market QTD Staples are trading above relative historical trends Economy is slightly stronger than market is baking in Recommend a 50bps decrease to overall position given belief that sector will underperform over the next year 3

4 Industry Noncyclical in nature with relatively low volatility and higher dividends Steady demand creates a safe-haven investment class Sub-industries can outperform during downtrends Private label foods, Tobacco, Liquor Revenue: High competition driven by product differentiation and marketing Expenses: Profitability driven by commodity markets and inflation 4

5 Inflation Affects Sub-Sectors Uniquely 5

6 Measurable Correlation between Manufacturers & Inflation 6

7 Downstream Staples Possess Buyer Power 7

8 Breakdown Subsectors in the Sector & QTD Returns Drug Retail 8.29% Food Distributors 7.01% Food Retail 7.17% Hypermarkets & Supercenters 8.32% Brewers (1.87%) Distillers & Vintners 10.08% Soft Drinks 0.26% Agricultural Products 17.09% Packaged Foods & Meats 3.86% Tobacco 7.74% Household Products (0.55%) Personal Products 15.99% 8

9 Holding Comparison S&P 500 Materials 3.6% Utilities 3.6% Telecom 3.0% Telecom 4.1% Other 4.1% Materials 3.3% Utilities 2.6% Consumer Discretionary 10.6% Info Technology 19.6% Consumer Discretionary 8.7% Info Technology 21.7% Industrials 10.6% Financials 14.2% Industrials 9.1% Energy 12.4% 10.9% Health Care 11.4% Energy 12.5% Financials 10.1% Health Care 11.8% 12.2% 9

10 Breakdown Sector Returns Sector MTD QTD Utilities 0.80% 11.84% Health Care -0.20% 6.24% 0.29% 5.68% Info Technology 0.64% 4.87% Consumer Discretionary 0.15% 4.40% Energy 2.13% 4.37% Telecommunications 1.27% -2.33% Industrials 1.11% -3.37% Materials 1.66% -7.93% Financials -0.21% % Market expects Early Recession or Bear Market, we disagree 10

11 15-Year Market Correlation r =.47 Industry r 0.47 Energy 0.49 Telecommunications 0.50 Materials 0.53 Financials 0.60 Info Technology 0.71 Utilities 0.78 Health Care 0.81 Industrials 0.88 Consumer Discretionary Nov Nov Nov Nov Nov Nov Nov Nov S&P

12 Nominal GDP & 12

13 Counterintuitive, but in Accordance with Nature of the Sector 13

14 Increased Capital Spending Points to Improving Economy Capital spending is a leading economic indicator Time to reduce exposure to the 14

15 Capacity Utilizations Rising is a Good Sign for the Economy Bad sign for the sector 15

16 Wages Eventual wage increase will hurt consumer staples 16

17 Dollar Depreciation 17

18 Unsustainable Outperformance? More than 3 years of outperformance over S&P is not sustainable, considering historical trends 18

19 Sector Financial Analysis Revenue Earnings 19

20 Absolute Valuation Absolute Basis High Low Median Current P/Trailing E P/Forward E P/B P/S P/CF In absolute terms this sector appears to be undervalued. We feel it is more relevant to compare to S&P

21 Valuation Relative to S&P 500 Relative to SP500 High Low Median Current P/Trailing E P/Forward E P/B P/S P/CF Relative to the S&P, consumer staples is more inline or if anything slightly overpriced compared to 10 year norms 21

22 Forward P/E Relative to S&P

23 Trailing 12 months P/E Trailing P/E Relative to S&P 500 Sector Median Current Premium Telecommunications 0.9x 1.3x 140% Energy 0.8x 1.0x 126% Utilities 0.9x 1.1x 124% 1.1x 1.2x 109% Consumer Discretionary 1.2x 1.2x 100% Industrials 1.1x 1.1x 100% Materials 1.1x 1.1x 100% Financials 0.8x 0.7x 93% Health Care 1.1x 0.9x 83% Info Technology 1.3x 1.0x 77% 23

24 Overall Valuation of Sector Absolute values suggest underpricing of Values relative to the S&P 500 paint a different picture Trailing P/E, Forward P/E, and P/CF relative to S&P are all above 10 year norms 24

25 Conclusion Reduce holdings in SIM portfolio by 50 basis points Investment in sector will remain 70 bps overweight to S&P Maintain a significant hold on stable companies This is due to two reasons: Though situation in US is improving, considerable uncertainty still remains; therefore, we remain overweight We reduce overweight basis due to greater potential in other sectors and belief that economy will slowly improve 25

26 Berkshire Reduces Exposure to Historically he has preferred consumer products and banking to industrial companies. But the market changes, so the names he comes up with changes Berkshire s holdings of banks, insurance and finance stocks advanced 2.7 percent to $16 billion on a cost basis in the three months ended Sept. 30, while consumer products shares fell 5 percent to $12.6 billion Bloomberg, 7 th November 26

27 Questions and Voting Do you dare defy the Oracle of Omaha? 27