Company Presentation : Financials. Edouard Sevil Manpreet Singh Shazia Sultana Rahul Verma

Transcription

1 Company Presentation : Financials Edouard Sevil Manpreet Singh Shazia Sultana Rahul Verma

2 Summary 1) Sector Overview 2) J.P. Morgan Chase (JPM) 3) Lincoln Financial Group (LNC) 4) Wells Fargo (WFS) 5) Bank of America (BAC)

3 1. The Financial Sector Edouard Sevil

4 Financials in the S&P % Financials Other sectors 85.8% Source:

5 Financials in the SIM Fund 9.9% Financials Other sectors 90.1% Source:Fisher College of Business

6 Financials in the SIM Fund: In the fund: % of total assets J.P. Morgan: 3.95% Lincoln Financial Group: 2.67% Wells Fargo: 4.45% Under consideration: Bank of America Source: August 2011 Portfolio Appraisal

7 Our previous recommendations: Keep Financials underweighted Differentiate between industries: Banks: neutral Insurance: reinforce Real-Estate: neutral Diversified financials: neutral

8 What happened to the Financials since our Nov. 1 presentation? The very reason why we did not want to buy them: they lost more than 20% of their value.

9 Timing is everything + Buy low, sell high vs. - Don t catch a falling knife

10 How does that significant evolution impact our recommendations? We decided to change our recommendation to BUY for the whole sector. This will be reflected in the individual stocks presentations. Bank of America J.P. Morgan Wells Fargo Lincoln Financial Group Recommendation BUY BUY HOLD BUY BPS

11 2. J.P. Morgan Chase (JPM) Manpreet Singh

12 Stock Information: Stock price Sector Financials Industry Money Center Banks Market cap $ B Shares Outstanding 3,977 M Average daily volume (3 month) M Dividend yield 3.3% Beta 1.64 Recommendation - Buy Business Overview Analyst recommendation Strong Buy 19/24, Moderate buy 3/24, rest hold Analyst rating Upgraded Mean target $46.8 *Sources Yahoo Finance & Daily Finance.com

13 Business Overview I year Performance I month Performance

14 Business Overview JP Morgan Chase Investment Banking Asset Management Credit Cards Retail Financial Services Commercial Banking Treasury & Securities Corporate/ Private Equity 7% 6% 9% 16% 7% 25% 30% Investment Banking Retail Card Services Commercial Banking Treasuries & Securities Asset Management Corporate/Private Equity 6% 12% 10% 12% 7% 15% 38% Investment Banking Retail Card Services Commercial Banking Treasuries & Securities 2010 Sales by Business Line 2010 Earnings by Business Line Asset Management Corporate/Private Equity

15 Business Overview Strengths: Weaknesses: International presence Strong balance sheet Financial strength (earnings) Opportunities: Growth in Emerging Markets (IB) Threats: Economic outlook in the U.S. E.U Debt Crisis Impact of new regulations Flattening of U.S. yield curve (FED) Public opinion(ows)

16 DCF Analysis

17 Stock Valuation

18 Pricing Multiples & Overall Valuation Valuation Method Average of pricing multiples ( P/E, P/S, P/B,P/EBITDA) 90% =.9 * = $45 DCF 10 % =.1 *150 = 15 Total = $45 + $15= $60 Recommendation buy 50 basis points.

19 3. Lincoln Financial Group (LNC) Shazia Sultana

20 Business Overview Stock information Current stock price: Sector: financial Industry: life insurance Market cap: 4.93 b Shares outstanding: m Average daily volume:6.5 m Div yield:1.30% Beta:2.90 Analyst recommendation Analyst rating: buy 50 bps Target price: Current weight:2.34% Recommended Weight:2.84%

21 Business Overview Lincoln National Corp Retirement Solutions Business Insurance solutions Business Annuities Defined Contributions Group Protection Life Insurance

22 Business Overview 19% 25% Annuities Defined Contribution 7% 43% Annuities Defined Contribution 10% Life Insurance 55% Life Insurance 44% Group Protection 14% Group Protection 2010 Sales by Business Line 2010 Earnings by Business Line

23 Business Overview Strengths: Diversified product portfolio Wide distribution network Strong balance sheet Strategic agreements Dividends & share repurchases Opportunities: Favorable cycle for Life and Annuity Weaknesses: Restricted geographical presence Low revenue growth Threats: Regulations Economic outlook in the U.S. E.U Debt Crisis Impact of new regulations Highly-competitive industry

24 Valuation-Multiples Relative to High Low Median Current Industry P/Trailing E P/Forward E P/B P/S P/CF Relative to S&P High Low Median Current 500 P/Trailing E P/Forward E P/B P/S P/CF

25 DCF Analysis Lincoln National Corp LNC Analyst: Shazia Sultana Terminal Discount Rate = 12.5% Date: 10/17/2011 Terminal FCF Growth = 4.0% Year 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E Revenue 11,156 12,088 13,247 14,307 15,344 16,418 17,403 18,273 19,096 19,907 20,704 % Grow th 8.3% 9.6% 8.0% 7.3% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.5% 4.3% 4.0% Operating Income 1,572 1,722 1,908 1,645 1,734 1,822 1,914 2,010 2,101 2,190 2,277 Operating Margin 14.1% 14.2% 14.4% 11.5% 11.3% 11.1% 11.0% 11.0% 11.0% 11.0% 11.0% Interest and Other (223) (242) (265) (286) (307) (328) (348) (365) (382) (398) (414) Interest % of Sales -2.0% -2.0% -2.0% -2.0% -2.0% -2.0% -2.0% -2.0% -2.0% -2.0% -2.0% Taxes (297) (326) (361) (408) (428) (448) (470) (493) (516) (537) (559) Tax Rate -22.0% -22.0% -22.0% -30.0% -30.0% -30.0% -30.0% -30.0% -30.0% -30.0% -30.0% Net Income 1,572 1,154 1, ,046 1,096 1,151 1,203 1,254 1,304 % Grow th -26.6% 11.0% -25.8% 5.0% 4.7% 4.8% 5.0% 4.5% 4.3% 4.0% Free Cash Flow 1,572 1,154 1, ,046 1,096 1,151 1,203 1,254 1,304 % Growth -26.6% 11.0% -25.8% 5.0% 4.7% 4.8% 5.0% 4.5% 4.3% 4.0% NPV of Cash Flows 6,963 59% NPV of terminal value 4,914 41% Terminal Value 15,959 Projected Equity Value 11, % Free Cash Flow Yield 28.87% Free Cash Yield 8.17% Current P/E Terminal P/E 12.2 Projected P/E Current EV/EBITDA Terminal EV/EBITDA 8.4 Projected EV/EBITDA Shares Outstanding 316 Current Price $ Implied equity value/share $ Upside/(Downside) to DCF 118.1% Debt 8,892 Cash 2,912 Cash/share 9.22 Total Assets 201,554 Debt/Assets 4.4% Working Capital % of Growth 20%

26 Final Valuation Absolute Valuation High Low Median Current #Your Targe t Multi ple *Your Target E, S, B, etc/shar e Your Target Price (F x G) Weights Weighted Price A. B. C. D. E. F. G. H. I J P/Forward E P/S P/B P/EBITDA P/CF Weighted Price Per share(multiples) P/B Multiple 80% weight =0.8 *36.28 = $29.02 DCF Valuation 20% weight=0.2*37.59 = $7.58 Final Target Price = $36.60 Current Price $19.31 Upside/Downside % 89%

27 4. Wells Fargo (WFC) Rahul Verma

28 Business Overview WFC is a diversified financial services company with operations around the world. WFC offers a range of financial services in over 80 different business lines. WFC delineates three different business segments when reporting results: Community Banking, Wholesale Banking, and Wealth, Brokerage and Retirement.

29 Key Stats Current SIM Weight: 4.06% Current Price: Recommendation: Buy/Hold Industry: Diversified Banks Market Cap: $135.09B P/E Forward: 7.81 P/E Trailing: 9.37 Beta: Week Range: $23.02 $34.25 Div Yield: 1.90%

30 Analyst Opinion & Price Targets Analysts Opinion: Buy - 25 of 33 (10 Strong Buys) Analyst Price Target Summary Range: $24.33-$41.00 Mean Target Price: $32.58 Median Target Price: $32.00

31 Business Overview Strengths: Well diversified Growing insurance line Weaknesses: Cost structure Opportunities: Growth in Emerging Markets (IB) Threats: Economic outlook in the U.S. E.U Debt Crisis Impact of new regulations Flattening of U.S. yield curve (FED) Public opinion(ows)

32 DCF Analysis Summary Current Price: $24.18 as of 11/21/11 Close Value: $29.64 Upside: 22.6%

33 Valuation

34 Pricing Multiples Absolute Valuation High Low Median Current #Your Target Multiple *Your Target E, S, B, etc/share Your Target Price (F x G) A. B. C. D. E. F. G. H. P/Forward E P/S P/B P/EBITDA P/CF Average Target 32.22

35 Overall Valuation Valuation Method Current Target Percent Weight Target Price Value DCF $ % $ 7.41 Pricing Multiples $ % $24.16 (50/50 for comparison) Total $30.93 $31.57 Upside from $ % 30.6%

36 5. Bank of America (BAC) Edouard Sevil

37 Stock Overview Stock Information: Ticker BAC Stock price $5.37 Sector Financials Industry Regional Banks Market cap $59.8 B Average daily volume (3 m) M Dividend yield 0.7% Beta 2.9 Analyst opinion: Strong Buy 5, Buy 10, Hold 16, Underperform 1, Sell 0 High target $14.50 Mean target $9.90 Low target $6.50 My recommendation BUY Source: Yahoo Finance

38 Business Overview

39 Business Overview

40 Business Overview Strengths: Market share in Retail Banking Strong IB dept. (Merrill Lynch) New Bank of America project Weaknesses: Non-performing assets (Countrywide) Litigation issues Cost structure Recurring impairments/losses Opportunities: Growth in Emerging Markets (IB) Threats: Economic outlook in the U.S. E.U Debt Crisis Impact of new regulations Flattening of U.S. yield curve (FED) Public opinion(ows)

41 Business Overview TTM 50 - BAC JPM WFS LNC Market Capitalization (in billion dollars)

42 Profitability Analysis ROE ROA BAC JPM WFC LNC Return on Equity/Return on Assets (in %, TTM)

43 DCF Analysis Bank of America (Dollars in millions, except per share information; shares in thousands) Analyst: Edouard Sevil Terminal Discount Rate = 13.0% Date: 11/21/2011 Terminal FCF Growth = 2.5% Conservative Assumptions Year 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E Net interest income, FTE basis 41,222 44,267 46,480 48,572 50,758 52,788 54,900 56,821 58,810 60,574 62,391 % Grow th 7.4% 5.0% 4.5% 4.5% 4.0% 4.0% 3.5% 3.5% 3.0% 3.0% Noninterest income 52,465 54,104 56,809 59,366 62,037 64,519 67,100 69,448 71,879 74,035 76,256 % Grow th 3.1% 5.0% 4.5% 4.5% 4.0% 4.0% 3.5% 3.5% 3.0% 3.0% Revenue 93,687 98, , , , , , , , , ,648 % Grow th 5.0% 5.0% 4.5% 4.5% 4.0% 4.0% 3.5% 3.5% 3.0% 3.0% Provision for credit losses 13,603 11,067 9,296 9,229 9,136 8,974 9,058 9,233 9,410 9,540 9,671 Provision for credit losses as a % of net interest income 33.00% 25.00% 20.00% 19.0% 18.0% 17.0% 16.5% 16.3% 16.0% 15.8% 15.5% Total noninterest expense 78,697 77,369 76,693 62,334 63,278 64,519 65,758 66,670 67,566 68,112 68,631 Total noninterest expense as a % of noninterest income % % % 105.0% 102.0% 100.0% 98.0% 96.0% 94.0% 92.0% 90.0% Income (loss) before taxes 1,387 9,936 17,301 36,375 40,381 43,814 47,183 50,366 53,713 56,957 60,346 EBT margin 1.5% 10.1% 16.8% 33.7% 35.8% 37.4% 38.7% 39.9% 41.1% 42.3% 43.5% Income tax expense (benefit) (208) 2,981 5,190 10,913 12,114 13,144 14,155 15,110 16,114 17,087 18,104 Tax Rate -15.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% Net Income 1,595 6,955 12,111 25,463 28,266 30,670 33,028 35,256 37,599 39,870 42,242 Preferred stock dividends 1,100 1, Free Cash Flow 495 5,905 11,211 24,613 27,466 29,920 32,328 34,606 36,999 39,320 41,742 % Grow th % 89.9% 119.5% 11.6% 8.9% 8.0% 7.0% 6.9% 6.3% 6.2% NPV of Cash Flows 133,689 53% NPV of terminal value 120,041 47% Terminal Value 407,486 Projected Equity Value 253, % Free Cash Flow Yield 0.91% Free Cash Yield 10.24% Current P/E Terminal P/E 9.6 Projected P/E Current EV/EBT 1, Terminal EV/EBITDA 39.2 Projected EV/EBT 1, Shares Outstanding (millions) 10,134 Current Price $ 5.37 Implied equity value/share $ Upside/(Downside) to DCF 366% Still lead to a 366% upside

44 Multiple Analysis Bank of America High Low Median Current #Your Target Multiple *Your Target E, S, B, etc/share Your Target Price P/Forward E P/S P/B P/EBITDA P/CF Average target is $12.78 (138% upside) Source: Thompson Reuters Baseline

45 Multiple Analysis Bank of America Your Target Multiple Your Target E, S, B, etc/share Your Target Price Weight P/Forward E % 1.6 P/S % 2.6 P/B % 11.2 P/EBITDA % 0.3 P/CF % 0.9 Weighted average is $16.6 (209% upside) Assuming a 3-year recovery period - $3.75 increase each year: 1-year target is $9.11. Source: Thompson Reuters Baseline

46 Comparable Analysis Bank of America J.P. Morgan Wells Fargo Average P/Forward E P/S P/B P/EBITDA P/CF Source: Thompson Reuters Baseline

47 Technical Analysis Bollinger Bands: This is one of the most popular technical analysis techniques. The closer the prices move to the upper band, the more overbought the market, and the closer the prices move to the lower band, the more oversold the market. Source: Investopedia Thompson Reuters Baseline

48 Recommendation My recommendation for Bank of America is BUY, with a one-year price target of $9.11. I recommend buying 2.5% to leave room to reinforce the position in case the stock falls below its current level in the upcoming quarters.

49 What questions do you have?