Analyst's Notes. Argus Recommendations
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1 Report created Jan 12, 2018 Page 1 OF 5 JPMorgan Chase is one of world's largest diversified banking firms. The company operates a leading global corporate and investment bank and is the second-largest mortgage originator in the United States, after Wells Fargo. JPMorgan Chase also operates a large retail banking network and is a leading credit card issuer. Analyst's Notes Analysis by Stephen Biggar, January 12, 2018 ARGUS RATING: BUY Raising target price to $125 as tax reform elevates our 2018 EPS estimate On January 12, JPM reported adjusted 4Q17 EPS of $1.76, up from $1.71 in the prior-year quarter and above the $1.69 consensus. Revenues benefited from strong investment banking fees and credit card revenues, while fixed income trading continued its descent on muted market volatility and tighter credit spreads. JPM guided toward a 19% effective tax rate in 2018, down from 32% paid in 2017, related to the recently passed Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. Mostly from factoring in the lower tax rate, we are raising our 2018 EPS estimate to $8.72 from $7.66. We acknowledge however that recent positive share price performance has largely captured tax-related earnings benefits in JPM's valuation. INVESTMENT THESIS We are reiterating our BUY rating on JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) following 4Q results, which were helped by contributions from the investment banking, credit card and asset management businesses. Fixed income trading, however, continued to be hurt by a low volatility environment and tighter credit spreads. Along with 4Q earnings, management guided toward a 19% tax rate for 2018 following recent passage of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, and expressed optimism that tax reform would be beneficial for the U.S. economy. Banking trends we expect in 2018 include a good environment for investment banking and asset management from robust capital market conditions, greater contributions from lending businesses both from faster loan growth and wider net interest margins on Fed rate hikes, and less strict regulation on the financial markets. The company has noted medium-term targets for return on tangible common equity are 20% for consumer and community banking, 14% for the corporate and investment bank, 15% for commercial banking, and 25% for asset and wealth management, resulting in a 15% goal for the overall firm. Capital levels also remain strong. JPM had a 12.1% common equity tier 1 ratio at the Data Pricing reflects previous trading week's closing price. 200-Day Moving Average Price ($) Rating EPS ($) Target Price: $ Week High: $ Week Low: $ Closed at $ on 1/5 Quarterly Annual ( Estimate) 9.39 ( Estimate) Revenue ($ in Bil.) Quarterly Annual ( Estimate) ( Estimate) FY ends Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Dec BUY HOLD SELL Argus Recommendations Twelve Month Rating SELL HOLD BUY Five Year Rating SELL HOLD BUY Rating Weight Under Over Weight Weight Argus assigns a 12-month BUY, HOLD, or SELL rating to each stock under coverage. BUY-rated stocks are expected to outperform the market (the benchmark S&P 500 Index) on a risk-adjusted basis over the next year. HOLD-rated stocks are expected to perform in line with the market. SELL-rated stocks are expected to underperform the market on a risk-adjusted basis. The distribution of ratings across Argus' entire company universe is: 50% Buy, 44% Hold, 6% Sell. Key Statistics Key Statistics pricing data reflects previous trading day's closing price. Other applicable data are trailing 12-months unless otherwise specified Overview Price $ Target Price $ Week Price Range $81.64 to $ Shares Outstanding 3.47 Billion Dividend $2.24 Overview Financial Rating MARKET WEIGHT Total % of S&P 500 Cap % Financial Strength Financial Strength Rating HIGH Debt/Capital Ratio 71.0% Return on Equity 10.4% Net Margin 24.1% Payout Ratio 0.27 Current Ratio -- Revenue $ Billion After-Tax Income $26.94 Billion Valuation Current FY P/E Prior FY P/E Price/Sales 3.44 Price/Book 1.66 Book Value/Share $66.96 Capitalization $ Billion Forecasted Growth 1 Year EPS Growth Forecast 24.75% 5 Year EPS Growth Forecast 10.00% 1 Year Dividend Growth Forecast 10.38% Risk Beta 1.22 Institutional Ownership 74.71%
2 Report created Jan 12, 2018 Page 2 OF 5 end of 2016, and plans to remain within the 11.0%-12.5% range in the medium term. After several years of improving capital ratios, management is content with a tier 1 ratio toward the low end of that range. It does not see the need for excess capital levels. Our target price of $125 (raised from $109) values the shares at 12.7-times our revised 2018 estimate. RECENT DEVELOPMENTS Over the past year, JPM shares have risen 29%, compared to a 22% increase for the broad market. On January 12, JPM reported adjusted 4Q17 EPS of $1.76, up from $1.71 in the prior-year quarter and above the $1.69 consensus. Results for the current quarter exclude $0.69 per share related to a write-down of tax deferred assets related to the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. Revenues rose 3.3% to $24.2 billion, as higher investment banking, asset management, credit card and net interest revenues offset lower trading and mortgage banking revenues. For all of 2017, revenues increased 4% to $99.6 billion, while earnings rose to $6.99 from $6.19. In Consumer & Community Banking, fourth-quarter net income climbed 11%, to $2.6 billion. Net revenues were up 10%, aided by deposit margin expansion, deposit growth and higher auto lease income. Operating expenses increased 6%, and the provision for losses increased 30% to $1.23 billion, largely reflecting a reserve build mostly in the credit card segment. In the Corporate & Investment Bank, net revenues declined 12%, as higher investment banking revenue was hurt by 34% lower fixed income trading revenues attributed to a low volatility environment and tighter credit spreads. Operating expenses rose 8%, largely reflecting higher compensation expenses. There was a credit loss provision of $130 million, versus a benefit of $198 million a year earlier, driven by a reserve build and reserve releases in the energy portfolio a year earlier. In all, net income was down 32% to $2.32 billion. Commercial Banking revenue rose 20%, to $2.35 billion, aided by higher deposit spreads and loan growth. Operating expenses climbed 23%, and following a credit for loss provisions of $62 million (driven by reserve releases in the oil and gas portfolio), versus a $124 million provision, net income rose 39%, to $957 million. In Asset & Wealth Management, net revenue was up 9%, with assets under management climbing 15% to $2.0 trillion on higher market values and inflows into liquidity and long-term products. Following an 8% rise in operating costs, net income was up 12% to $654 million. EARNINGS & GROWTH ANALYSIS JPM maintains industry-leading positions in many of its largest and most profitable business lines. It is also lowering costs through branch efficiencies and simplification programs. Capital market sensitive businesses had a strong start to 2017, but were hurt in the latter three quarters as fixed income trading Growth & Valuation Analysis GROWTH ANALYSIS ($ in Millions, except per share data) Revenue 97,031 97,367 95,112 93,543 95,668 COGS Gross Profit SG&A 38,386 38,735 38,514 38,651 39,722 R&D Operating Income 28,917 26,675 30,699 30,702 34,536 Interest Expense -44,910-43,319-43,634-43,510-46,083 Pretax Income 28,917 26,675 30,699 30,702 34,536 Income Taxes 7,633 8,789 8,954 6,260 9,803 Tax Rate (%) Net Income 21,284 17,886 21,745 24,442 24,733 Diluted Shares Outstanding 3,822 3,815 3,798 3,733 3,650 EPS Dividend GROWTH RATES (%) Revenue Operating Income Net Income EPS Dividend Sustainable Growth Rate VALUATION ANALYSIS Price: High $58.55 $63.49 $70.61 $87.39 Price: Low $44.20 $52.97 $50.07 $52.50 Price/Sales: High-Low P/E: High-Low Price/Cash Flow: High-Low Financial & Risk Analysis FINANCIAL STRENGTH Cash ($ in Millions) 512, , ,635 Working Capital ($ in Millions) Current Ratio LT Debt/Equity Ratio (%) Total Debt/Equity Ratio (%) RATIOS (%) Gross Profit Margin Operating Margin Net Margin Return On Assets Return On Equity RISK ANALYSIS Cash Cycle (days) Cash Flow/Cap Ex Oper. Income/Int. Exp. (ratio) Payout Ratio The data contained on this page of this report has been provided by Morningstar, Inc. ( 2018 Morningstar, Inc. All Rights Reserved). This data (1) is proprietary to Morningstar and/or its content providers; (2) may not be copied or distributed; and (3) is not warranted to be accurate, complete or timely. Neither Morningstar nor its content providers are responsible for any damages or losses arising from any use of this information. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. This data is set forth herein for historical reference only and is not necessarily used in Argus analysis of the stock set forth on this page of this report or any other stock or other security. All earnings figures are in GAAP.
3 Report created Jan 12, 2018 Page 3 OF 5 softened in a low volatility environment and with tighter credit spreads. We look for a 10% improvement in investment banking revenues in 2018 as economic growth benefits from recent tax reform and aids the capital markets. We also expect some improvement in fixed income trading revenues as concerns about the pace of inflation and interest rate increases result in greater trading. Credit card revenues are also expected to be a bright spot (we expect 9% growth in 2018), as the company benefits from its Sapphire card and rising consumer spending. With an offset from lower mortgage banking revenues, overall we see 2018 revenues up 7%. JPM has managed credit costs well, and kept its net charge-off guidance steady throughout Loan growth has generally been impressive, and we view JPM as finding good growth on favorable underwriting terms. A rebound in oil prices should further reduce pressure on the oil and gas portfolio. The change in presidential administration has ushered in several favorable banking trends, including the potential for less strict financial regulation and reduced compliance costs. Higher interest rates from a more aggressive Federal Reserve, and greater lending volume from more growth-oriented policies, including lower tax rates, are also beneficial. We expect at least two quarter-point rate hikes in 2018 to aid net interest margins. JPM has guided toward a 19% effective tax rate in 2018, down from 32% paid in 2017, as a result of corporate tax reform. Mostly on this revised tax rate, we are raising our 2018 EPS estimate to $8.72, from $7.66, representing 25% growth from We note that 12% of the revision relates to the lower tax rate. We are also initiating a 2019 forecast of $9.39. FINANCIAL STRENGTH & DIVIDEND Our financial strength rating for JPMorgan Chase is High. In June 2017, JPM announced that the Federal Reserve did not object to its 2017 capital distribution plan, which included the repurchase of up to $19.4 billion (up from a $10.6 billion authorization the prior year) of common stock between July 1, 2017 and June 30, JPM's Basel III Tier I common ratio (advanced approach) was 12.1% in 4Q17, down from 12.3% a year earlier. The total capital ratio was 15.8%, down from 16.1%. JPM raised its quarterly dividend by 12%, to $0.56 per share, effective with the 3Q17 payment. We expect dividends of $2.34 in 2018 and $2.48 in The stock's current yield is about 2.1%. MANAGEMENT & RISKS JPM is led by Chairman and CEO Jamie Dimon. Mr. Dimon was diagnosed with throat cancer in 2014, but the company was very transparent about his treatment and return to active status. JPM is generally considered to a have a deep bench of talent, although an exodus of senior executives in recent years has led to succession concerns. JPM has been settling lawsuits at a rapid pace, and we expect legal costs to continue to moderate in In May 2015, JPM Peer & Industry Analysis The graphics in this section are designed to allow investors to compare JPM versus its industry peers, the broader sector, and the market as a whole, as defined by the Argus Universe of Coverage. The scatterplot shows how JPM stacks up versus its peers on two key characteristics: long-term growth and value. In general, companies in the lower left-hand corner are more value-oriented, while those in the upper right-hand corner are more growth-oriented. The table builds on the scatterplot by displaying more financial information. The bar charts on the right take the analysis two steps further, by broadening the comparison groups into the sector level and the market as a whole. This tool is designed to help investors understand how JPM might fit into or modify a diversified portfolio. P/E Value BAC 5-yr Growth Rate(%) JPM C Growth 5-yr Net 1-yr EPS Cap Growth Current Margin Growth Argus Ticker Company ($ in Millions) Rate (%) FY P/E (%) (%) Rating JPM JPMorgan Chase & Co 384, BUY BAC Bank of America Corp 319, BUY C Citigroup Inc 199, HOLD Peer Average 301, P/E Price/Sales Price/Book PEG 5 Year Growth Debt/Capital
4 Report created Jan 12, 2018 Page 4 OF 5 announced settlements with the U.S. Department of Justice and the Federal Reserve related to its foreign exchange trading business. Under the DOJ resolution, the company agreed to plead guilty to a single antitrust violation and pay a fine of $550 million. Under a resolution with the Federal Reserve, JPM paid a fine of $342 million. JPM had previously reserved for these settlements. JPMorgan Chase has a large consumer franchise in the U.S. and a large global securities and asset management operation. The Dodd-Frank Act, and other recent regulatory actions, will continue to impact many of JPM's businesses; however, many of the rules are still being written and implementation will take time, and in fact may be watered down given recent comments by the Trump administration. On the commercial side, we note that most of JPM's revenue and earnings are not generated from proprietary trading businesses. However, JPM is a major owner and trader of derivatives. Increased regulation of derivatives trading, including the movement of trades to exchanges and clearinghouses, could have an impact on JPM's trading revenues. COMPANY DESCRIPTION JPMorgan Chase is one of world's largest diversified banking firms. The company operates a leading global corporate and investment bank and is the second-largest mortgage originator in the United States, after Wells Fargo. JPMorgan Chase also operates a large retail banking network and is a leading credit card issuer. VALUATION JPM shares have climbed about 28% over the past year. However, given a sharp rise in EPS estimates due to tax reform, the shares still trade at only 12.7-times our revised 2018 EPS forecast, and 2.0-times tangible book value. We believe this valuation still undervalues the franchise. We look for multiple expansion as investors better recognize the company's leading position in most major businesses, as well as the potential for acceleration in investment banking, asset management and credit card revenues as benefits of tax reform filter through the economy. Less strict financial regulations also remain a likelihood under the new presidential administration. Our target price of $125 (raised from $109) assumes a multiple of 14.3-times our 2018 EPS estimate. On January 12 at midday, BUY-rated JPM traded at $111.90, up $1.10.
5 METHODOLOGY & DISCLAIMERS Report created Jan 12, 2018 Page 5 OF 5 About Argus Argus Research, founded by Economist Harold Dorsey in 1934, has built a top-down, fundamental system that is used by Argus analysts. This six-point system includes Industry Analysis, Growth Analysis, Financial Strength Analysis, Management Assessment, Risk Analysis and Valuation Analysis. Utilizing forecasts from Argus Economist, the Industry Analysis identifies industries expected to perform well over the next one-to-two years. The Growth Analysis generates proprietary estimates for companies under coverage. In the Financial Strength Analysis, analysts study ratios to understand profitability, liquidity and capital structure. During the Management Assessment, analysts meet with and familiarize themselves with the processes of corporate management teams. Quantitative trends and qualitative threats are assessed under the Risk Analysis. And finally, Argus Valuation Analysis model integrates a historical ratio matrix, discounted cash flow modeling, and peer comparison. THE ARGUS RESEARCH RATING SYSTEM Argus uses three ratings for stocks: BUY, HOLD, and SELL. Stocks are rated relative to a benchmark, the S&P 500. A BUY-rated stock is expected to outperform the S&P 500 on a risk-adjusted basis over a 12-month period. To make this determination, Argus Analysts set target prices, use beta as the measure of risk, and compare expected risk-adjusted stock returns to the S&P 500 forecasts set by the Argus Strategist. A HOLD-rated stock is expected to perform in line with the S&P 500. A SELL-rated stock is expected to underperform the S&P 500. Argus Research Disclaimer Argus Research is an independent investment research provider and is not a member of the FINRA or the SIPC. Argus Research is not a registered broker dealer and does not have investment banking operations. The Argus trademark, service mark and logo are the intellectual property of Argus Group Inc. The information contained in this research report is produced and copyrighted by Argus, and any unauthorized use, duplication, redistribution or disclosure is prohibited by law and can result in prosecution. The content of this report may be derived from Argus research reports, notes, or analyses. The opinions and information contained herein have been obtained or derived from sources believed to be reliable, but Argus makes no representation as to their timeliness, accuracy or completeness or for their fitness for any particular purpose. This report is not an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. The information and material presented in this report are for general information only and do not specifically address individual investment objectives, financial situations or the particular needs of any specific person who may receive this report. Investing in any security or investment strategies discussed may not be suitable for you and it is recommended that you consult an independent investment advisor. Nothing in this report constitutes individual investment, legal or tax advice. Argus may issue or may have issued other reports that are inconsistent with or may reach different conclusions than those represented in this report, and all opinions are reflective of judgments made on the original date of publication. Argus is under no obligation to ensure that other reports are brought to the attention of any recipient of this report. Argus shall accept no liability for any loss arising from the use of this report, nor shall Argus treat all recipients of this report as customers simply by virtue of their receipt of this material. Investments involve risk and an investor may incur either profits or losses. Past performance should not be taken as an indication or guarantee of future performance. Argus has provided independent research since Argus officers, employees, agents and/or affiliates may have positions in stocks discussed in this report. No Argus officers, employees, agents and/or affiliates may serve as officers or directors of covered companies, or may own more than one percent of a covered company s stock. Morningstar Disclaimer 2018 Morningstar, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Certain financial information included in this report: (1) is proprietary to Morningstar and/or its content providers; (2) may not be copied or distributed; and (3) is not warranted to be accurate, complete or timely. Neither Morningstar nor its content providers are responsible for any damages or losses arising from any use of this information. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
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