FUND MANAGER SURVEY August 2008 Conducted on behalf of MERRILL LYNCH
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- Sheila Sanders
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1 B2 How do you think the region's economy will develop over the next 12 months? B3 How likely do you think it is that the economy in this region will experience recession over the next twelve months? B4 In 12 months' time, do you think the region's core consumer price inflation rate (in year-on-year terms) will be...? B5 Do you think monetary policy in this region is currently? B11 Looking ahead to the next 12 months, do you think the outlook for corporate profit growth in this region will...? B12 Do you think that consensus earnings estimates for the coming year are currently...? B14 How likely do you think it is that corporate earnings in this region will rise 10% or more over the next 12 months? B15 Do you think that the equity market in this region is currently...? B22a Please indicate for each of the following US sectors, whether you consider your position to be overweight, underweight or neutral relative to your internal benchmark:
2 Section B - US PDF» B2 How do you think the region's economy will develop over the next 12 months? Get a lot stronger 0% 0% 0% Get a little stronger 0% 17% 10% Stay the same 38% 25% 30% Get a little weaker 50% 50% 50% Get a lot weaker 13% 8% 10%
3 Section B - US PDF» B3 How likely do you think it is that the economy in this region will experience recession over the next twelve months? Very likely 13% 33% 25% Fairly likely 50% 50% 50% Fairly unlikely 38% 17% 25% Very unlikely 0% 0% 0%
4 Section B - US PDF» B4 In 12 months' time, do you think the region's core consumer price inflation rate (in year-on-year terms) will be...? A lot higher 0% 0% 0% Slightly higher 63% 17% 35% Unchanged 25% 33% 30% Slightly lower 13% 42% 30% A lot lower 0% 8% 5%
5 Section B - US PDF» B5 Do you think monetary policy in this region is currently? Too restrictive 0% 8% 5% About right 75% 75% 75% Too stimulative 25% 17% 20%
6 Section B - US PDF» B11 Looking ahead to the next 12 months, do you think the outlook for corporate profit growth in this region will...? Improve strongly 0% 0% 0% Improve slightly 0% 25% 15% Remain unchanged 38% 17% 25% Deteriorate slightly 50% 25% 35% Deteriorate strongly 13% 33% 25%
7 Section B - US PDF» B12 Do you think that consensus earnings estimates for the coming year are currently...? Far too high 13% 25% 20% Somewhat high 63% 50% 55% About right 13% 25% 20% Somewhat low 0% 0% 0% Far too low 0% 0% 0% Don t know 13% 0% 5%
8 Section B - US PDF» B14 How likely do you think it is that corporate earnings in this region will rise 10% or more over the next 12 months? Very likely 0% 0% 0% Fairly likely 0% 0% 0% Fairly unlikely 50% 67% 60% Very unlikely 38% 33% 35% Don't know 13% 0% 5%
9 Section B - US PDF» B15 Do you think that the equity market in this region is currently...? Overvalued 13% 8% 10% Fairly valued 75% 83% 80% Undervalued 13% 8% 10%
10 Section B - US PDF» B22a Please indicate for each of the following US sectors, whether you consider your position to be overweight, underweight or neutral relative to your internal benchmark: Banks Overweight 0% 8% 5% Underweight 25% 67% 50% Neutral 25% 17% 20% Not applicable 50% 8% 25% Insurance Overweight 13% 8% 10% Underweight 13% 67% 45% Neutral 25% 17% 20% Not applicable 50% 8% 25% Healthcare / Pharma Overweight 13% 33% 25% Underweight 13% 42% 30% Neutral 38% 0% 15% Not applicable 38% 25% 30% Consumer Discretionary Overweight 13% 0% 5% Underweight 25% 92% 65% Neutral 25% 0% 10% Not applicable 38% 8% 20% Information Technology Overweight 38% 50% 45% Underweight 13% 17% 15% Neutral 13% 17% 15% Not applicable 38% 17% 25% Industrials Overweight 38% 33% 35% Underweight 0% 17% 10% Neutral 25% 33% 30% Not applicable 38% 17% 25% Consumer Staples Overweight 25% 25% 25% Underweight 13% 33% 25% Neutral 25% 33% 30% Not applicable 38% 8% 20%
11 Energy Overweight 25% 33% 30% Underweight 13% 8% 10% Neutral 25% 50% 40% Not applicable 38% 8% 20% Telecom Services Overweight 13% 8% 10% Underweight 0% 58% 35% Neutral 50% 25% 35% Not applicable 38% 8% 20% Materials Overweight 38% 42% 40% Underweight 13% 8% 10% Neutral 13% 33% 25% Not applicable 38% 17% 25% Utilities Overweight 13% 8% 10% Underweight 13% 50% 35% Neutral 38% 33% 35% Not applicable 38% 8% 20%
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