Weekly Investment Report

Transcription

1 Economic & Market News Bloomberg: The underlying pace of U.S. inflation unexpectedly accelerated in December amid increased housing costs, reinforcing the outlook for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates several times in 218. Excluding food and energy, the so-called core consumer price index increased 1.8% from a year earlier after a 1.7% advance, including a.3% monthly gain that topped analyst projections and was the most in almost a year. Including all items, the broader CPI showed a smaller gain in December in line with estimates, as energy prices declined, according to Labor Department report. The.3% monthly increase in the core CPI topped the.2% median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Investors already-firm expectations rose for a Fed interest-rate increase in March, as the data could help calm an increasingly heated debate among central bank officials over why inflation has stayed relatively placid despite solid economic growth and the lowest unemployment rate since 2. Fed policy makers have pencilled in three rate hikes in 218 following three last year. A separate Commerce Department report showed U.S. retail sales rose in December and November s gain was revised upward, indicating a robust holiday-shopping season. Zawya: December data signalled a slowdown in growth in Dubai s non-oil private sector, according to the Emirates NBD Dubai Economy Tracker Index. The seasonally adjusted Emirates NBD Dubai Economy Tracker Index eased to 54.7 in December compared to 55.3 in November, slowest rate of improvement for 14 months. By sector, wholesale and retail (index at 54.9) was the best performing category, closely followed by construction (index at 53.5). The travel and tourism sector (51.2) experienced the slowest improvement in business conditions. Job creation in the non-oil private sector continued for the tenth month running during November. The rate of hiring eased, however, and was the weakest reported since June. According to anecdotal evidence, firms increased payroll numbers in order to meet rising output requirements. Business activity expectations remained strongly positive overall during December s survey. The degree of confidence improved since November and registered above the series long-run average. An expected economic upturn alongside incoming new projects underpinned confidence among non-oil private sector firms in Dubai. Al Masah Capital: 218 continues to boost hope and optimism among investors worldwide, with almost all of the main indices ending the second we ek of the year on a positive note. Regional markets joined the parade, with all six indices ending the week in the green territory, with only Oman having a marginally lower weekly performance of -.3%. Egypt comes as the best performer among its peers over the week, going up by +3.1%, followed by Kuwait +1.6%, Dubai and Abu Dhabi each up by +.9%, while Saudi Arabia advanced by +.8%, followed by Bahrain +.3%. Oil pric es rose for a sixth day on Friday after Russia's oil minister said that global crude supplies were "not balanced yet," alleviating market concerns about a wind-down of the OPEC -led deal to reduce production. Brent was trading just below the USD7 per barrel. For the coming period, investors optimism will continue driving trading activities in the region higher backed by the increase in oil prices and governments improved macro outlook based on this increase. Indexes Last WTD (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) Dubai (DFMGI) 3, % 3.7% 3.7% Abu Dhabi (ADSMI) 4, % 4.38% 4.38% Saudi (SASEIDX) 7, % 1.55% 1.55% Kuwait (KWSE) 6, % 2.38% 2.38% Egypt (EGX3) 15, % 1.49% 1.49% Qatar (DSM) 9, % 7.19% 7.19% Bahrain (BHSEIDX) 1, % -1.11% -1.11% Oman (MSM3) 5, % -.23% -.23% TR GCC (Reuters) % 5.15% 5.15% DJ MENA %.%.% Indexes Last WTD (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) DJI 25, % 4.39% 4.39% S&P 5 2, % 4.21% 4.21% NASDAQ 6, % 5.66% 5.66% STOXX Europe % 2.39% 2.39% FTSE 1 7, % 1.18% 1.18% DAX 13, % 2.53% 2.53% Commodities & FX Last WTD (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) Oil (Brent) % 4.49% 4.49% Natural Gas % 8.36% 8.36% Gold % 2.76% 2.76% Silver % 1.81% 1.81% EURUSD % 1.58% 1.58% GBPUSD % 1.59% 1.59% USDJPY % -1.46% -1.46% USDCHF % -.65% -.65% AUDUSD.79.64% 1.42% 1.42% USDCAD % -.97% -.97% LIBOR US Dollar WoW (%) Euro WoW (%) 1 Month % % 2 Month % % 3 Month % % 6 Month % % 12 Month % % CAC 4 5, % 3.85% 3.85% Nikkei , % 3.9% 3.9% SENSEX 34, % 1.57% 1.57% Shanghai Composite 3, % 3.68% 3.68% Hang Seng 31, % 4.99% 4.99% 1

2 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Weekly Investment Report Economic & Market News (continued) Zawya: Egypt's inflation dropped sharply in December, the latest apparent indication of economic improvement after the 216 currency float hit Egyptians hard. Economists say, however, it may just be showing that spending power has yet to recover. Prices climbed to record highs and the Egyptian pound lost half its value after the central bank floated it in November 216 in a bid to secure a USD 12 billion IMF loan to boost economic growth after years of turmoil. With the pound at about 17.7 to the U.S. dollar from a pegged 8.8 before the float, Egyptians have had to amend their spending habits to deal with their incomes and savings being slashed in half. Urban consumer inflation eased to 21.9% percent in December from 26 percent the previous month, its lowest reading since the flotation. Core inflation, stripping out volatile items such as food, fell to 19.86% from 25.53%. Since the float, Egyptian exports have found new markets, narrowing the country's trade deficit, and foreign reserves and foreign direct investment have surged to record highs. Monthly headline inflation contracted for the first time in two years in December due to a decline in the prices of poultry, meat and some vegetables and beans, according to the data. Reuters: China s exports and imports growth slowed in December after surging in the previous month, adding to signs of ebbing economic momentum as the government extends a crackdown on financial risks and factory pollution. A synchronized uptick in the global economy over the past year has been a boon to China and much of tradedependent Asia, with Chinese exports in 217 growing at their quickest pace in four years. The sharp December imports slowdown, however, is raising concerns that the world s second-biggest economy faces domestic-demand pressure as authorities turn off cheap credit and restrict speculative financing. In December, exports rose 1.9% from a year earlier, beating analysts forecast of a 9.1% increase, but cooling from a robust 12.3% gain in November, the General Administration of Customs. Imports grew at an even slower pace of 4.5% year-on-year last month, the weakest since they rose 3.1% in December 216, and way below forecasts of 13.% growth. Despite the December slowdown, the overall picture for 217 underscored strong global appetite for Chinese products ranging from electronics, household appliances and a vast array of consumer goods. Exports from the Asian giant for the full year rose 7.9%, the fastest rate since 213, while imports also gained a sizzling 15.9%, the best since 211, thanks to insatiable Chinese demand for commodities. Zawya: Bahrain recorded an annual real GDP growth rate of 3.6% and nominal GDP annual growth rate of 6.9% during the third quarter (Q3) of 217 compared to the same period the previous year, according to Information & egovernment Authority (iga). According to the report, Bahrain's economy has witnessed a growth due to infrastructure s investments increase and the financial stability of the Kingdom. These positive indicators reflect government s efforts to enhance the national economy which faces challenges at the local, regional and international levels. The report demonstrated that the real quarterly growth rate is 1.6% and the nominal growth rate is 2.2% when compared to the second quarter s 217 results. It has also shown that the results of growth rates in the oil sector have increased by nearly 13.4% at current prices due to the high price of a barrel of oil compared to the previous year. Due to the increase of production, the manufacturing industry has grown by 3.2% at constant prices and 3.5% at the current prices. Construction sector grew by.8% at constant prices and 12% at current prices. Real estate and business activities grew by 4.6% at constant prices and by the same percentage at current prices. While the transport and communications sector achieved an increase of 5.8% in constant prices and 8.3% in current prices. The report pointed out that other government services increased by 3.1% at constant prices and by 2% at current prices. 4 US Government Bonds - Yield to Maturity (%) M 3M 6M 12M 2Y 5Y 1Y 3Y Last Week Current Week Global Equity Indexes - Rebased 5 CBOE S&P Volatility Index - VIX Oct-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 S&P 5 STOXX Europe 6 TR MENA MSCI Asia ex. Japan MENA Market - Price Ratios PE 8.8 PB Year CDS Rates (basis points) Dubai Abu Dhabi Saudi Kuwait Egypt Qatar Bahrain Oman Average Dubai Abu Dhabi Saudi Kuwait Egypt Qatar Bahrain Oman Average 2

3 Government Bonds Government Bond Name Currency Maturity Coupon Current Yield (%) YTM - Ask (%) Rating Bid Ask UAE - Emirate of Abu Dhabi ABU DHABI GOVT INT'L USD 8/4/ AA United States of America US TREASURY N/B USD 31/5/ AAA United Kingdom of Great Britain UK TSY 4 3/4% 22 GBP 7/3/ AAA Kingdom of Bahrain KINGDOM OF BAHRAIN USD 31/3/ UAE - Emirate of Dubai DUBAI GOVT INT'L BONDS USD 5/1/ United States of America US TREASURY N/B USD 15/5/ AAA State of Qatar STATE OF QATAR USD 15/6/ Aa Arab Republic of Egypt ARAB REPUBLIC OF EGYPT USD 3/4/ B United States of America US TREASURY N/B USD 15/5/ AAA Kingdom of Bahrain KINGDOM OF BAHRAIN USD 19/9/ B Corporate Bonds Government/Parent Company Bond Name Currency Maturity Coupon Current Yield (%) YTM - Ask (%) Rating Bid Ask Abu Dhabi Water & Electricity TAQA ABU DHABI NATL ENER USD 1/8/ BBB Abu Dhabi Water & Electricity TAQA ABU DHABI NATL ENER USD 16/9/ BBB Qatar Petroleum RAS LAFFAN LNG 3 USD 3/9/ A National Bank of Oman NATIONAL BANK OF OMAN USD 7/1/ Baa Qatari Diar Real Estate Invest QATARI DIAR FINANCE QSC USD 21/7/ Aa Stichting Waha Aerospace WAHA AEROSPACE BV USD 28/7/ AA Qatar Petroleum RAS LAFFAN LNG II USD 3/9/ A Investment Corp of Dubai EMIRATES NBD PJSC EUR 23/3/ A Saudi Electricity Co SAUDI ELECTRICITY GLOBAL USD 3/4/ A Emaar Malls Group PJSC EMG SUKUK LTD USD 18/6/ Baa Emirate of Sharjah United Arab SHARJAH SUKUK LTD USD 17/9/ A Qatar Petroleum RAS LAFFAN LNG 3 USD 3/9/ A Qatar Gas Transport Co Ltd NAKILAT INC USD 31/12/ A Port & Free Zone World FZE DP WORLD LTD USD 2/7/ BBB Burgan Bank SAK BURGAN TIER 1 FINANCING USD Perpetual Emirates NBD PJSC EMIRATES NBD 214 TIER 1 USD Perpetual Thomson Reuters composite rating; NR = No Rating 3

4 Bahrain Qatar Egypt Kuwait Saudi UAE Weekly Investment Report Money Markets EIBOR 1 Week 1 Month 2 Months 3 Months 6 Months 12 Months N/A T/N 1 Week 1 Month 2 Months 3 Months 6 Months 9 Months 12 Months SAIBOR KIBOR 1 Month 2 Months 3 Months 6 Months 9 Months 12 Months T/N 1 Week 1 Month 2 Months 3 Months 6 Months 9 Months 12 Months O/N 1 Month 3 Months 6 Months 1 Year 2 Years 3 Years EGIBR Bank Rates T-Bill Yields QIBOR QCB Interest Rates BHIBOR Interest Rates O/N T/N 1 Week 1 Month 2 Months 3 Months 6 Months 9 Months 12 Months O/N < 1 Week 1 Week < 1 Month 1 Month > 1 Month Re Discount Lending Benchmark Week 1 Month 3 Months 6 Months 9 Months 1 Year 2 Years 3 Years O/N 1 Week 1 Month 2 Months 3 Months 6 Months 9 Months 12 Months Week 1 Month 2 Months 3 Months 6 Months 9 Months 12 Months O/N Deposit O/N Lending Repo Rate O/N 1 Week 1 Month 2 Months 3 Months 6 Months 9 Months 12 Months O/N Deposit 1W Deposit O/N Repo O/N Secured

5 Qatar Egypt Kuwait Saudi Abu Dhabi Dubai Weekly Investment Report Top Weekly Performers by Country ( indicates native currency; Data as of the previous Thursday) ARABTEC HOLDING PJSC % 15.55% 4,125 MASHREQBANK PSC % 9.93% 13,66 DEYAAR DEVELOPMENT PJSC % 13.67% 3,218 DAR AL TAKAFUL PJSC % 11.7% 145 DUBAI ISLAMIC INSURANCE & REINS % 8.76% 196 AL SAFWA MUBASHER FINANCIAL SER.81-1.% -1.% 457 DRAKE AND SCULL INTERNATIONAL % -.88% 2,399 EMAAR PROPERTIES PJSC % 3.46% 51,43 MARKA PJSC % 5.26% 29 SHUAA CAPITAL PSC % -3.31% 1,246 ABU DHABI NATIONAL FOR BUILDING % 19.5% 15 RAS AL KHAIMAH CEMENT CO PSC % 3.16% 458 EMIRATES DRIVING CO PJSC % 15.% 826 EMIRATES INSURANCE COMPANY PSC % 15.% 1,35 AXA GREEN CRESCENT INSURANCE CO % 5.95% 178 UNITED ARAB BANK PJSC % % 2,434 NATIONAL INVESTOR PJSC % % 26 AGTHIA GROUP PJSC % -3.54% 2,778 AL QUDRA HOLDING PJSC % -3.1% 1,11 WAHA CAPITAL PJSC % 2.14% 3,714 (SAR mln) (SAR mln) AXA COOPERATIVE INSURANCE CO % 14.14% 1,17 FAWAZ ABDULAZIZ ALHOKAIR CO SJSC % -4.28% 6,111 RABIGH REFINING AND PETROCHEM % 18.59% 17,1 UNITED INTERNATIONAL TRANSPORT % 8.46% 2,1 SAUDI COMPANY FOR HARDWARE % 5.11% 2,765 SAUDI ARABIA FERTILIZERS CO SJSC % 5.37% 28,627 AL SORAYAI TRADING AND IND % -5.96% 467 NAJRAN CEMENT CO SJSC % -4.7% 1,688 SAUDI RE FOR COOPERATIVE REINS % -1.2% 852 BUPA ARABIA FOR COOPERATIVE INS % -4.52% 7,14 (fils) (KWD mln) (fils) (KWD mln) AMWAL INTERNATIONAL INVEST % 35.61% 8 KUWAIT CABLE VISION COMPANY % 21.5% 1 MENA REAL ESTATE CO KSCP % 23.78% 4 REAL ESTATE ASSET MANAGEMENT % 18.95% 62 AL AHLI BANK OF KUWAIT KSCP % 17.24% 551 GULF INSURANCE GROUP KSCP % % 122 AMAR FINANCE AND LEASING CO % % 9 ARABI GROUP HOLDINGS KSCP % % 12 BURGAN FOR WELL DRILLING TRAD % % 16 IFA HOTELS AND RESORTS CO KSCP % -5.56% 18 (EGP mln) EL NASR TRANSFORMERS AND ELEC % 18.1% 595 GLAXOSMITHKLINE SAE % 35.3% 1,926 ALEXANDRIA CO FOR PHARMA % 12.4% 615 ABU QIR FERTILIZERS AND CHEMICAL % 13.16% 3,667 EGYPTIAN TRANSPORT AND COMMER % 11.54% 44 SOUTH CAIRO AND GIZA MILLS AND % -8.53% 175 EL NASR FOR MANUFACTURING AGRI % 1.68% 72 UPPER EGYPT FLOUR MILLS SAE % -7.69% 941 ARAB MOLTAQA INVESTMENTS CO % -13.8% 586 VODAFONE EGYPT TELECO % -6.66% (QAR mln) QATAR INSURANCE CO SAQ % 16.3% 16,774 UNITED DEVELOPMENT COMPANY % 13.63% 5,786 QATARI INVESTORS GROUP QSC % 1.93% 5,48 MASRAF AL RAYAN QPSC % 12.56% 31,868 MEDICARE GROUP QSC % 15.43% 2,269 AHLI BANK QSC % -1.16% 7,18 DOHA INSURANCE CO QSC %.36% 72 OOREDOO QSC % -1.61% 29,149 QATAR CINEMA AND FILM DIST % -4.6% 15 ZAD HOLDING CO SAQ % -3.7% 1,2 5

6 Top 5 MENA Stocks by Market Capitalization ( indicates native currency; Latest data) Company Name Country Market Cap (USD mln) MTD % YTD % 52w High 52w Low P/E P/B Dividend Yield 1 SAUDI BASIC INDUSTRIES CORPORATION SA 81, % -.2% % 2 EMIRATES TELECOMMUNICATIONS GROUP AE 42, % 2.6% % 3 SAUDI TELECOM COMPANY SJSC SA 36, % -.6% % 4 QATAR NATIONAL BANK QPSC QA 33, % 5.5% % 5 FIRST ABU DHABI BANK PJSC AE 32, % 7.8% % 6 NATIONAL COMMERCIAL BANK SJSC SA 29, % 1.6% % 7 AL RAJHI BANKING & INVESTMENT CORP SA 29, % 5.9% % 8 SAUDI ELECTRICITY COMPANY SJSC SA 22, % -2.8% % 9 DP WORLD LTD AE 21, % 6.% % 1 INDUSTRIES QATAR QSC QA 17, % 9.3% % 11 SAUDI ARABIAN MINING CO SJSC SA 16, % 1.9% % 12 NATIONAL BANK OF KUWAIT SAKP KW 14, % 4.7% % 13 EMIRATES ISLAMIC BANK PJSC AE 14, %.% % 14 JABAL OMAR DEVELOPMENT CO SJSC SA 14, % -1.4% % 15 ALMARAI CO SJSC SA 14, % -2.4% % 16 EMAAR PROPERTIES PJSC AE 13, % 3.5% % 17 SAMBA FINANCIAL GROUP SJSC SA 13, % 6.7% % 18 EMIRATES NBD BANK PJSC AE 12, % -.6% % 19 KUWAIT FINANCE HOUSE KSCP KW 11, % 4.2% % 2 SAUDI BRITISH BANK SJSC SA 11, % 6.1% % 21 RIYAD BANK SJSC SA 1, % 3.7% % 22 ABU DHABI COMMERCIAL BANK PJSC AE 1, % 7.4% % 23 BANQUE SAUDI FRANSI SJSC SA 9, % 5.3% % 24 EZDAN HOLDING GROUP QSC QA 9, % 5.4% % 25 YANBU NATIONAL PETROCHEMICALS CO SA 9, % 4.7% % 26 MASRAF AL RAYAN QPSC QA 8, % 12.6% % 27 DUBAI ISLAMIC BANK PJSC AE 8, % 5.% % 28 KINGDOM HOLDING CO SA 8, % -2.2% % 29 OOREDOO QSC QA 8, % 6.3% % 3 ALINMA BANK SJSC SA 7, % 2.8% % 31 EMAAR MALLS PJSC AE 7, % 3.3% % 32 SAUDI ARABIA FERTILIZERS CO SJSC SA 7, %.% % 33 ARAB NATIONAL BANK SA 7, % 7.% % 34 MOBILE TELECOMMUNICATIONS CO KW 6, % 1.1% % 35 EMIRATES INTEGRATED TELECO AE 6, % 1.4% % 6

7 Top 5 MENA Stocks by Market Capitalization Continued ( indicates native currency; Latest data) Company Name Country Market Cap (USD mln) MTD % YTD % 52w High 52w Low P/E P/B Dividend Yield 36 QATAR ISLAMIC BANK QPSC QA 6, % 2.1% % 37 EMAAR DEVELOPMENT PJSC AE 6, % 12.6% % 38 DAMAC PROPERTIES DUBAI CO PSC AE 5, % 3.3% % 39 SAVOLA GROUP COMPANY SJSC SA 5, % -.8% % 4 QATAR ELECTRICITY AND WATER CO QSC QA 5, % 3.4% % 41 COMMERCIAL INTERNATIONAL BANK EG 5, % 3.3% % 42 AHLI UNITED BANK BSC BA 5, % -2.1% % 43 ALDAR PROPERTIES PJSC AE 4, % 2.3% % 44 MESAIEED PETROCHEMICAL HOLDING CO QA 4, % 8.8% % 45 QATAR INSURANCE CO SAQ QA 4, % 16.3% % 46 RABIGH REFINING AND PETROCHEMICAL SA 4, % 18.6% % 47 SAUDI KAYAN PETROCHEMICAL CO SJSC SA 4, % 4.5% % 48 AGILITY PUBLIC WAREHOUSING CO KSCP KW 3, % 8.4% % 49 BARWA REAL ESTATE COMPANY QPSC QA 3, % 9.3% % 5 JARIR MARKETING CO SJSC SA 3, % 5.9% % Total MCap; Weighted Avg Div Yield 687, % Disclaimer: This report is prepared by Al Masah Capital Management Limited ( AMCML ). AMCML is a company incorporated in the DIFC (Dubai International Financial Centre) and regulated by the DFSA (Dubai Financial Services Authority). The information contained in this report does not constitute any offer to sell securities or the solicitation of any offer to buy, or recommendation for investment in, any securities in any jurisdiction. The information in this report is not intended as financial advice and is only intended to be used by experienced investment persons with appropriate investment knowledge and ones that AMCML is satisfied meet the regulatory criteria to be classified as a Professional Client as defined under the Rules & Regulations of the appropriate financial authority. More-over, none of the report is intended as a prospectus within the meaning of the applicable laws of any jurisdiction and none of the report is directed to any person in any country in which the distribution of such report is unlawful. This report provides general information only. The information and opinions in the report constitute a judgment as at the date indicated and are subject to change without notice. The information may therefore not be accurate or current. The information and opinions contained in this report have been compiled or arrived at from sources believed to be reliable in good faith, but no representation or warranty, express, or implied, is made by AMCML, as to their accuracy, completeness or correctness and AMCML does also not warrant that the information is up to date. Any reference to third party research material or any other report contained in this report represents the respective research organization's estimates and views and does not represent the views of AMCML and its officers and employees do not accept any liability or responsibility whatsoever with respect to its accuracy or correctness and AMCML has included such reports or made reference to such reports in good faith. This report may also provide the addresses of, or contain hyperlinks to websites. Except to the extent to which the report refers, AMCML takes no responsibility whatsoever for the contents therein. Such addresses or hyperlinks are provided solely for your convenience and information and the content of the linked site does not in any way form part of this report. Accessing such website or following such link through this report shall be at your own risk. Moreover, you should be aware of the fact that investments in undertakings, securities or other financial instruments involve general and specific risks. Past results do not guarantee future performance. AMCML does not accept any liability for any loss arising from the use of material presented in this report. AMCML may seek to do business, or may already have had some business dealings, with companies covered in this report. As a result, investors should be aware that AMCML may be considered as having a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of research produced. Investors should consider any AMCML research as only a single factor in making any investment decision. This document has not been reviewed by, approved by or filed with the DFSA. This report or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without our prior written consent of the Company. Copyright 215 Al Masah Capital Management Limited 7