MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS OF NEPAL

Transcription

1 MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS OF NEPAL November 2017 NEPAL RASTRA BANK RESEARCH DEPARTMENT

2 NEPAL Location : 26 o 22' North to 30 o 27' North and 80 o 4' East to 88 o 12' East Area : 147,181 Square Km. Capital City : Kathmandu Population : million * Population Growth Rate : 1.35% * Currency : Nepalese Rupee World Heritage Sites : Lumbini, Chitwan National Park, Sagarmatha National Park, Pashupatinath, Swayambhunath, Bauddhanath, Changu Narayan, Kathmandu Durbar Square, Bhaktapur Durbar Square and Patan Durbar Square * Based on Population Census 2011, Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS) Sources: Central Bureau of Statistics;

3 Contents Table 1 Table 2 Table 3 Table 4 Table 5 Table 6 Table 7 Table 8 Table 9 Table 10 Table 11 Table 12 Table 13 Table 14 Table 15 Table 16 Table 17 Table 18 Table 19 Table 20 Table 21 Table 22 World Output Growth World Consumer Prices Key Macroeconomic Indicators Real Sector Annual National Consumer Price Index Monetary Survey Central Bank Survey Other Depository Corporation Survey Structure of the Nepalese Financial System Number of Banks and Financial Institutions Presence of Commercial Bank at Local Levels Number of Merged/Acquired Banks and Financial Institutions Regional Distribution of Banks, Financial Institutions and their Branches Financial Access and Stability Structure of Interest Rates Stock Market Government Budgetary Operation Outstanding Debt of the Government of Nepal Foreign Trade Nepal's Trade Balance with Major Trading Partners Balance of Payments Gross Foreign Exchange Holding of Banking Sector

4 Table 1 World Output Growth (Annual Percentage Change) Year P 2018 P World Output China India Nepal P = Projection Source: World Economic Outlook (WEO), October 2017, IMF Table 2 World Consumer Prices (Annual Percentage Change) Year P 2018 P Advanced Economies China India Nepal P = Projection Source: World Economic Outlook (WEO), October 2017, IMF

5 Table 3 Key Macroeconomic Indicators Indicator Annual Percentage Change 2009/ / / / / / /16 R 2016/17 P Real GDP at Producers' Price Real GDP at Basic Price Nominal GDP at Producers' Price Nominal GDP at Basic Price GNI at Current Price Gross National Disposable Income National Consumer Price Index National Wholesale Price Index National Salary and Wage Rate Index Broad Money (M2) Money Supply (M1) Domestic Credit Credit to Private Sector Time Deposits Total Exports Total Imports Gross Forex Reserves Government Revenue Government Expenditure As % of Nominal GDP at Producers' Prices Gross National Disposable Income Broad Money (M2) Money Supply (M1) Domestic Credit Credit to Private Sector Time Deposits Total Exports Total Imports Trade Deficit Current Account Balance Gross Forex Reserves Government Revenue Government Expenditure Government Budgetary Deficit (Gross) Gross Domestic Borrowing Net Domestic Borrowing Gross External Borrowing Net External Borrowing Outstanding Domestic Debt Outstanding External Debt R = Revised P = Preliminary estimate Note: Government Revenue and Expenditure are based on Cash Basis data of NRB Source: Central Bureau of Statistics, Budget Speeches of GoN, Financial Comptroller General Office and Nepal Rastra Bank

6 Table 4 Real Sector (Rs. in million) 2009/ / / / / / /16 R 2016/17 P Nominal GDP at Producers' Price Nominal GDP at Basic Price Agriculture Non-agriculture Real GDP at Producers' Price (Base Year : 2000/01 = 100) Real GDP at Basic Price (Base Year : 2000/01 = 100) Agriculture Agriculture and Forestry Fishery Non-agriculture Industry Mining and Quarrying Manufacturing Electricity Gas & Water Construction Service Wholesale & Retail Trade Hotels & Restaurant Transport, Storage & Communications Financial Intermediation Real Estate, Renting & Business Public Adm. & Defence Education Health & Social Work Other Community, Social & Personal Services Nominal Per Capita GDP (USD) R = Revised estimate P = Preliminary estimate Source: Central Bureau of Statistics

7 Table 5 Annual National Consumer Price Index Base: 2014/15 = 100 Group/Sub-groups Weight (Percent) Percentage Change 2010/ / / / / / /17 1. OVERALL INDEX Food and Beverage Cereals Grains & their products Pulses and Legumes Vegetables Meat & Fish Milk Products and Eggs Ghee and Oil Fruit Sugar & Sugar products Spices Non-alcoholic drinks Alcoholic drinks Tobacco Products Restaurant & Hotel Non-Food and Services Clothing & Footwear Housing & Utilities Furnishing & Household Equipment Health Transport Communication Recreation and Culture Education Miscellaneous Goods & Services

8 Table 6 Monetary Survey (Rs. in million) Monetary Aggregates Mid - July Percentage Change P 2015/ /17 1. Foreign Assets, Net 221, , , , , , ,014, Foreign Assets 284, , , , , ,069, ,107, Foreign Liabilities 62, , , , , , , a. Deposits 52, , , , , , , b. Others 10, , , , , , , Net Domestic Assets 700, , , , ,130, ,288, ,576, Domestic Credit 910, , ,165, ,314, ,527, ,805, ,156, a. Net Claims on Govt. 163, , , , , , , i. Claims on Govt. 163, , , , , , , ii. Govt. Deposits 0.0 2, , , , , b. Claims on Non-Financial Govt. Ent. 6, , , , , , , c. Claims on Financial Institutions 13, , , , , , , i. Government 2, , , , , , , ii. Non-government 10, , , , , , , d. Claims on Private Sector 727, , , ,150, ,373, ,692, ,997, Net Non-monetary Liabilities 210, , , , , , , Broad Money (M2) 921, ,130, ,315, ,565, ,877, ,244, ,591, Money Supply (M1) 622, , , ,130, ,376, ,634, ,623, a. Money Supply (M1) 222, , , , , , , i. Currency 141, , , , , , , ii. Demand Deposits 80, , , , , , , b. Saving and Call Deposits 399, , , , , ,131, ,053, Time Deposits 298, , , , , , , Broad Money Liquidity (M3) 973, ,190, ,389, ,646, ,972, ,353, ,682, Reserve Money 234, , , , , , , Money Multiplier (M1) Money Multiplier (M2) P = Provisional

9 Table 7 Central Bank Survey (Rs. in million) Headings Mid-July Percentage Change P 2015/ /17 1. Foreign Assets Gold Investment SDR Holdings Reserve Position in the Fund Foreign Exchange Claims on Government Treasury Bills Development Bonds Other Government Papers Loans and Advances Claims on Non-Financial Government Enterprises Claims on Non-Bank Financial Institutions Government Non-Government Claims on Banks and Financial Institutions Refinance Repo Lending/SLF Claims on Private Sector Other Assets Assets = Liabilities Reserve Money Currency Outside ODCs Currency Held by ODCs Deposits of Commercial Banks Deposits of Development Banks Deposits of Finance Companies Other Deposits Government Deposits* Deposit Auction Reverse Repo Foreign Liabilities Foreign Deposits IMF Trust Fund Use of Fund Resources SAF ESAF PRGF/RCF CSI Capital and Reserve Other Liabilities P = Provisional * = Based on the third revision of the Central Treasury Position of the GoN.

10 Table 8 Other Depository Corporation Survey (Rs. in million) Mid - July Percentage Change P 2015/ /17 1. Total Deposits 823, ,011, ,188, ,406, ,688, ,016, ,299, Demand Deposits 82, , , , , , , a. Domestic Deposits 71, , , , , , , b. Foreign Deposits 10, , , , , , , Saving Deposits 302, , , , , , , a. Domestic Deposits 296, , , , , , , b. Foreign Deposits 5, , , , , , , Fixed & Call Deposits 433, , , , , , ,265, a. Domestic Deposits 396, , , , , , ,200, b. Foreign Deposits 36, , , , , , , Margin Deposits 5, , , , , , , Borrowings from Nepal Rastra Bank 8, , , , , , Foreign Liabilities 2, , , Other Liabilities 225, , , , , , , Paid-up Capital 98, , , , , , , General Reserves 35, , , , , , , Other Liabilities 91, , , , , , , Assets = Liabilities 1,059, ,266, ,486, ,757, ,075, ,496, ,887, Liquid Funds 141, , , , , , , Cash in Hand 23, , , , , , , Balance with Nepal Rastra Bank 60, , , , , , , Foreign Currency in Hand , , Balance Held Abroad 56, , , , , , , Cash in Transit Loans and Advances 854, , ,147, ,313, ,542, ,902, ,240, Claims on Government 111, , , , , , , Claims on Non-Financial Govt. Ent. 6, , , , , , , Claims on Financial Ent. 12, , , , , , , a. Government 2, , , , b. Non Government 10, , , , , , , Claims on Private Sector 722, , , ,146, ,369, ,687, ,993, a. Principal 694, , , ,117, ,338, ,656, ,959, b. Interest Accrued 28, , , , , , , Foreign Bills Purchased & Discounted 1, , , , , , , Other Assets 63, , , , , , , Credit Deposit Ratio Liquidity Deposit Ratio NFA 4, , , , , , NDA 766, , ,110, ,313, ,567, ,864, ,147, Other Items, net 162, , , , , , , Total Domestic Deposits 770, , ,113, ,326, ,594, ,907, ,209, Total Foreign Deposits 52, , , , , , ,

11 Table 9 Structure of the Nepalese Financial System (Total Assets/Liabilities) (As of mid-july) (Rs. in million) Financial Institutions P Commercial Banks 853, ,052, ,242, ,467, ,753, ,141, ,583,028.4 Development Banks 129, , , , , , ,455.5 Finance Companies 118, , , , , , ,056.2 Microfinance Financial Institutions 20, , , , , , ,008.8 NRB licensed Co-operatives 8, , , , , , ,076.5 NRB Licensed Financial NGOS 4, , , , , , ,520.7 Contractual Saving Institutions Employees Provident Fund 106, , , , , , ,283.3 Citizen Investment Trust 26, , , , , , ,101.6 Insurance Companies 61, , , , , , ,890.0 Postal Savings Bank 1, , , , , , ,812.9 Total 1,331, ,607, ,872, ,236, ,651, ,180, ,655,233.8 Market capitalization 323, , , ,057, , ,890, ,856,829.4 Total (incl. market capitalization) 1,654, ,975, ,387, ,293, ,640, ,071, ,512,063.2 Share in Financial System (in Percent) Financial Institutions Commercial Banks Development Banks Finance Companies Microfinance Development Banks NRB licensed Co-operatives NRB Licensed Financial NGOS Contractual Saving Institutions Employees Provident Fund Citizen Investment Trust Insurance Companies Postal Savings Bank Total Memorandum Item Assets/Liabilities of Nepal Rastra Bank 319, , , , , , ,048,679.4 P = Provisional

12 Table 10 Number of Banks and Financial Institutions (As of mid-july) Type Commercial Banks Development Banks Finance Companies Microfinance Development Banks Financial Cooperatives* Financial NGOs* Insurance Companies * NRB Licensed Table 11 Presence of Commercial Bank at Local Levels (As of mid-july 2017) Province Total Local Bodies Presence of Commercial Banks One Two Three Four Five Six Seven Total

13 Table 12 Number of Merged/Acquired Banks and Financial Institutions (As of mid-july) Bank and Financial Institutions Commercial Banks Development Banks Finance Companies Microfinance Development Banks Total BFIs merged/acquired with each other BFIs formed on account of merger/acquisition Table 13 Regional Distribution of Banks, Financial Institutions (As of mid-july 2017) Type Mid - Far - Eastern Central Western Western Western Total Commercial Banks' Branches Development Banks' Branches Microfinance Development Banks' Branches Finance Companies' Branches Financial Cooperatives* Financial NGOs* Money Changers Money Transfers * NRB licensed Table 14 Financial Access and Stability (As of mid-july) Indicators Number of ATMs Number of Deposit Accounts (in '000') Number of Loan Accounts (in '000') Percentage of Non-performing Loans Net Profit of Commercial Banks (Rs. In million)

14 Table 15 Structure of Interest Rates (Percent per Annum, mid-july) Year A. Policy Rates Fixed Repo Rate (Corridor) Fixed Deposit Collection Rate (Corridor) Standing Liquidity Facility (SLF) Rate^ Bank Rate B. Refinance Rates Against Loans to: Special Refinance General Refinance Export Credit in Foreign Currency C. CRR Commercial Banks Development Banks Finance Companies D. SLR Commercial Banks Development Banks Finance Companies E. Government Securities T-bills (28 days)* T-bills (91 days)* T-bills (182 days)* T-bills (364 days)* Development Bonds National/Citizen SCs F. Interbank Rate (Commercial Banks)* G. Weighted Average Diposit Rate (Commercial Banks) H. Weighted Average Lending Rate (Commercial Banks) I. Base Rate (Commercial Banks)$ LIBOR+0.25 LIBOR+0.25 LIBOR+0.25 LIBOR+0.25 LIBOR+0.25 LIBOR+0.25 LIBOR ^ The SLF rate is fixed as same as bank rate effective from August 16, 2012 * Weighted average interest rate. $ Base rate has been compiled since January 2013

15 Table 16 Stock Market (mid-july) Descriptions Number of Listed Companies Paid up value of Listed Shares (Rs. in million) Paid up value /GDP (%) Market Capitalization (Rs. in million) Market Capitalization/GDP (%) Annual Turnover (Rs. in million) Annual Turnover/Paid up Value (%) Turnover/Market Capitalization (%) NEPSE Index (Closing) Source: Nepal Stock Exchange Ltd.

16 Table 17 Government Budgetary Operation (On Cash Basis) (Rs. in million) Head/Sub-head 2010/ / / / / / /17 Total Expenditure Recurrent Capital Financial Other (Freeze Account) Total Resources Revenue and Grants Revenue Foreign Grants Previous Year's Cash Balance & Beru Deficits(-) Surplus(+) Sources of Financing Internal Loans Domestic Borrowings (i) Treasury Bills (ii) Development Bonds (iii) National Savings Certificates (iv) Citizen Saving Certificates (v) Foreign Employment Bond Overdrafts Others Principal Refund and Share Divestment Foreign Loans Balance of Govt. Office Account V. A. T. Fund Account Customs Fund Account Reconstruction Fund Account Local Authorities' Accounts (LAA)# Others* Current Balance (-Surplus) Based on data reported by 1 offices of NRB, 79 branches of Rastriya Banijya Bank Limited, 49 branches of Nepal Bank Limited, 25 branches of Agriculture Development Bank, 24 branches of NIC Asia Bank Limited, 12 branches of Everest Bank Limited, 10 brances of Nepal Investment Bank, 9 branches of Global IME Bank Limited, 2 branches of Bank of Kathmandu Limited and 1 branch each from NMB Bank Limited, Nepal Bangladesh Bank Limited, Prime Commercial Bank Limited and Century Commercial Bank conducting government transactions and release report from 79 DTCOs and payment centres. ++ Minus (-) indicates surplus. # Change in outstanding amount disbursed to VDC/DDC remaining unspent. * Others includes Guarantee deposits, Operational funds (Imprest) & Emergency funds and Conditional and unconditional grant from government P indicates Provisional. (Rs. in million) Particulars 2010/ / / / / / /17 P Domestic* 179, , , , , , ,710.7 Treasury Bills 120, , , , , , ,409.3 Development Bonds 43, , , , , , ,900.0 National Savings Certificate 10, , , , , Citizen Savings Certificate 4, , , , , , ,965.2 Foreign Employment Bond Special Bonds Foreign 259, , , , , , ,978.8 Domestic Debt/GDP (%) Foreign Debt/GDP (%) Total Debt/GDP (%) * Excluding overdraft borrowing of the GoN from NRB and IMF promissory notes P = Provisional Table 18 Outstanding Debt of the Government of Nepal Source: Economic Survey, 2015/16; Nepal Rastra Bank; Financial Comptrollar General Office

17 Table 19 Foreign Trade* (Rs. in million) Particulars 2009/ / / / / / /16 R 2016/17 P Total Exports 60, , , , , , , ,049.1 To India 39, , , , , , , ,449.2 To China , , , , ,701.5 To Other Countries 20, , , , , , , ,898.4 Total Imports 374, , , , , , , ,113.2 From India 217, , , , , , , ,669.6 From China , , , , ,245.0 From Other Countries 157, , , , , , , ,198.6 Major Exports 29, , , , , , , ,250.3 Readymade Garments 4, , , , , , , ,265.3 Woolen Carpet 4, , , , , , , ,375.4 Pulses 3, , , , , , , Polyster Yarn 3, , , , , , , ,816.5 Textiles 3, , , , , , , ,241.0 Jute Goods 2, , , , , , , ,460.5 Thread 2, , , Zinc sheet 1, , , , , , , ,029.8 Juice 1, , , , , , , ,057.5 Catechue 1, , , Major Imports 199, , , , , , , ,049.7 Petroleum Products 53, , , , , , , ,414.5 Gold 41, , , , , , , ,432.1 Vehicles & Spare Parts 28, , , , , , , ,881.6 Other Machinary & Parts 16, , , , , , , ,476.8 M.S. Billet 14, , , , , , , ,509.3 Electrical Equipment 12, , , , , , , ,458.4 Medicine 11, , , , , , , ,458.0 Telecommunication Equip. Parts 8, , , , , , , ,132.4 Coldrolled Sheet in Coil 6, , , , , , , ,027.5 M.S. Wires, Rods, Coils, Bars 6, , , , , , , ,259.1 * Based on customs data R = Revised P = Provisional

18 Table 20 Nepal's Trade Balance with Major Trading Partners S.No. Countries Exports 2015/ /17 Imports Trade Balance Exports Imports (Rs. in million) Trade Balance A SAARC India Afghanistan Bangladesh Bhutan Maldives Pakistan Sril Lanka B Euro Area Austria Belgium Finland France Germany Greece Ireland Italy Lithuania Malta Netherlands Portugal Slovenia Spain C Latin American and the Caribbean Argentina Brazil Chile Guatemala Mexico D Other Countries Australia Canada China, People's Republic of Contd. (2)

19 S.No. Countries Exports 2015/ /17 Imports Trade Balance Exports Imports Trade Balance 4 China, Republic of (Hong Kong) China, Republic of (Taiwan) Czech Republic Denmark Egypt Hungary Indonesia Israel Japan Korea, South Lebnan Malaysia Myanmar (Burma) New Zealand Norway Oman Philippines Qatar Russia Saudi Arabia Singapore South Africa Swaziland Sweden Switzerland Thailand Turkey Ukraine United Arab Emirates United Kingdom United States Vietnam Others* Total * Euro, Latin America and other countries not included above. P = Provisional

20 Table 21 Balance of Payments (Rs. in million) Percentage Change Particulars 2011/ / / / /16 R 2016/17 P 2015/ /17 A. Current Account 75, , , , , , Goods: Exports. f.o.b. 81, , , , , , Goods: Imports, f.o.b. -454, , , , , , Balance on Goods -373, , , , , , Services: Credit 72, , , , , , Travel 30, , , , , , Government, n.i.e. 10, , , , , , Other 31, , , , , , Services: Debit -58, , , , , , Transportation -22, , , , , , Travel -25, , , , , , Government Services -1, , , , , , Other -8, , , , , , Balance on Goods and Services -359, , , , , , Income: Credit 22, , , , , , Income: Debit -10, , , , , , Balance on Goods, Services and Income -346, , , , , , Current Transfers: Credit 427, , , , , , Grants 36, , , , , , Workers' Remittances 359, , , , , , Pensions 28, , , , , , Other 3, , Current Transfer: Debit -5, , , , , , B. Capital Account 18, , , , , , (Capital Transfers) C. Financial Account (excluding Group E) 28, , , , , , Direct Investment in Nepal 9, , , , , , Other Investment: Assets -15, , , , , , Other Investment: Liabilities 35, , , , , , Trade Credits 26, , , , , , Loans 1, , , , , , General Government 1, , , , , , Drawings 13, , , , , , Repayments -12, , , , , , Other Sectors , , Currency and Deposits 8, , , , , , Other Liabilities , , , , D. Miscellaneous Items, Net 16, , , , , , Total Group A through D 140, , , , , , E. Reserves and Related Items -140, , , , , , Change in Net Foreign Assets (-Increase) -131, , , , , , Official Exchange Rate Per US$ (Annual Buying Average in Rs.) R = Revised P = Provisional

21 Table 22 Gross Foreign Exchange Holding of the Banking Sector (Rs. in million) Mid-July Percentage Change / /17 Nepal Rastra Bank Convertible Inconvertible Bank and Financial Institutions * Convertible Inconvertible Total Reserve Convertible Share in total (in percent) Inconvertible Share in total (in percent) Import Capacity(Equivalent Months) Merchandise Merchandise and Services Gross Foreign Exchange Reserve Gold,SDR,IMF Gold Tranche Gross Foreign Assets(1+2) Foreign Liabilities Net Foreign Assets(3-4) Change in NFA (before adj. ex. val.) Exchange Valuation Change in NFA (6+7)*** Sources: Nepal Rastra Bank and Commercial Banks; Estimated. * indicates the "A","B" & " C" class financial institutions licensed by NRB. **Change in NFA is derived by taking mid-july as base and minus (-) sign indicates increase. *** After adjusting exchange valuation gain/loss Period-end Buying Rate (Rs/USD)

22 Nepal Rastra Bank Central Office, Research Department Baluwatar Kathmandu, Nepal Phone: Fax: Website: