TV Today Network (TVTNET) 272

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1 Result Update Rating matrix Rating : Buy Target : 315 Target Period : 12 months Potential Upside : 16% What s changed? Target Changed from 335 to 315 EPS FY17E Changed from 17.9 to 16.3 EPS FY18E Changed from 21.9 to 21 Rating Unchanged Quarterly performance Q3FY17 Q3FY16 YoY (%) Q2FY17 QoQ (%) Revenue EBITDA (25.0) EBITDA (%) bps bps PAT (28.7) Key financials FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E Net Sales EBITDA Net Profit EPS ( ) Valuation summary FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E P/E Target P/E EV / EBITDA P/BV RoNW RoCE Stock data Particulars Amount Market Capitalization Crore Total Debt (FY16) 0 Crore Cash (FY16) Crore EV Crore 52 week H/L 360/ 249 Equity capital 29.8 Face value 5.0 Research Analysts Bhupendra Tiwary bhupendra.tiwary@icicisecurities.com Sneha Agarwal sneha.agarwal@icicisecurities.com Ad revenue growth to revive in FY18E February 9, 2017 TV Today Network (TVTNET) 272 Revenues declined 5.9% YoY to crore vs. our estimate of crore as advertisement revenue growth remained subdued in the demonetisation hit quarter. However, peer Zee Media reported a 15%+ YoY ad revenue growth in the same quarter, which indicates relatively weaker performance by TV Today. The miss was due to lower ad revenue growth (implied) of ~5.0% YoY decline (vs. our estimate of ~0.5% growth) & reduction in the subscription revenues which has come down to quarterly run rate of ~ 5 crore vs. ~ 8-9 crore earlier, as the company is on the DD Free Dish platform. The FM Radio broadcasting arm, however, posted 3.0% YoY growth to 2.6 crore, after several quarters of decline EBITDA came in at 41.9 crore (I-direct estimates: 52.6 crore). Margins came in at 29.7% vs. our estimate of 35.3%. The company is a play of operating leverage wherein higher ad revenue growth culminates into higher margins. The decline in ad revenue in the quarter led to a 756 bps YoY decline in margins The miss in topline led to lower PAT, which came in at 26.3 crore vs. our estimate of 33.8 crore Market leader in Hindi news genre, catching up on English The revenue in the quarter was marred due to demonetisation woes. Hence, the implied ad revenue growth declined ~6.4% YoY vs. our estimate of 0.5% YoY growth. Ad spends across the media and print segment remained affected in the quarter. The spillover is likely to continue till FY17 end. The company would show higher resilience owing to Aaj Tak s consistent dominant position with ~25-30% viewership market share among the top five Hindi news channels. It has continued to maintain its numero uno position in the Hindi new genre as witnessed by the BARC data in CY16. The English news channel, India Today also continues to show traction. India Today s ad revenues have been growing at a stellar pace and now form ~20% of broadcasting ad revenues. The company will also benefit from increasing utilisations in the English news channel. We expect ad revenues to grow at 3.9% YoY & 12.4% YoY to crore and crore in FY17E and FY18E, respectively. Subscription revenues to decline, radio to, however, improve TV Today had entered into DD s Free Dish platform for an outlay of 6.0 crore. Such an entry will help the company garner better rural viewership share and, negotiate better terms with advertisers. However, it has led to renegotiations on subscription deals culminating into a quarterly impact of ~ 3.0 crore. Subscription revenue estimates have been curtailed accordingly to 20 crore in FY17E and FY18E, respectively. The company has done away with its deal with ENIL for the sale of remaining three radio stations in Delhi, Mumbai & Kolkata. The management has renewed focus on the radio business, which is likely to show improvement. Ad growth revival to bring in operating leverage, maintain BUY TV Today has been able to maintain its leadership position in the Hindi news genre and is catching up on the viewership in the English news genre with its newly branded channel India Today. We expect TV Today to post healthy 14.1% CAGR in the operating profits in FY16-18E. We continue to like the company given its strong cash flow generation, sustained leadership in Hindi segment and expanding presence in English genre. We maintain our BUY recommendation and value the stock at a 15x FY18E EPS of 21.0, arriving at a target price of 315. ICICI Securities Ltd Retail Equity Research

2 Variance analysis Q3FY17 Q3FY17E Q3FY16 Q2FY17 YoY (%) QoQ (%) Comments Revenue The quarter was hit by demonetisation which impacted the ad spends across the sectors and hence the revenues came in below our estimates Other Income Employee Expenses Advertising and Promotion expenses Administrative Expenses Production Cost EBITDA EBITDA Margin (%) bps 182 bps Margins came in lower than expected owing to lower operating leverage as the revenues took a hit in the quarter Depreciation Interest Total Tax PAT Key Metrics Broadcasting revenue growth (%) The ad revenues were impacted in the quarter owing to the demonetisation effect and the decline in subscription revenues owing to the company's presence in the Free Dish platform contributed to the overall decline in TV broadcasting revenues. Radio Ad revenue growth (%) NA The management has done away its agreement with ENIL to sell off its remaining radio stations and hence there would have been renewed focus towards the entities Change in estimates FY17E FY18E ( Crore) Old New % Change Old New % Change Comments Revenue We have lowered our ad revenue estimates for FY17, considering the impact of demonetisation. EBITDA EBITDA Margin (%) bps bps The EBITDA margin estimates have been marginally tweaked for FY18E PAT EPS ( ) Assumptions Current Earlier Comments FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E FY17E FY18E TV ad revenue growth (%) We have lowered our ad revenue estimates for FY17, considering the impact of demonetisation. Radio ad revenue growth (%) The improvement in the performance in the Q3FY17 in the radio segment with increased management focus post the deal with ENIL has been cancelled made us revise our estimates Subscription Revenue growth (%) ICICI Securities Ltd Retail Equity Research Page 2

3 Company Analysis TV broadcasting revenues to grow at 6.1% CAGR in FY16-18E Aaj Tak has been maintaining its dominant position in the fiercely competitive Hindi news segment for decades. The news segment, directly targeting decision makers in the family, enjoys a good portion of the advertisement share, which is expected to rise even further as literacy and income levels rise. India Today has been gearing up in its viewership position in the English news genre and is seeing strong revenue traction. The ad revenue growth for FY17 has taken a hit owing to the after effects of demonetisation and reduced ad spends across the print and media segments. Our ad revenues estimates have been re-aligned in accordance and we expect the ad revenues to grow at 3.9% YoY & 12.4% YoY to crore and crore in FY17E and FY18E, respectively. Exhibit 1: TV Broadcasting Revenue trends ( Crore) (%) - FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E - Revenues Growth (RHS) Exhibit 2: Week 30-Week 52 CY16 Rating Hindi News Genre 305, , , , ,000 55,000 5,000 Wk 30 Wk 31 Wk 32 Wk 33 Wk 34 Wk 35 Wk 36 Wk 37 Wk 38 Wk 39 Wk 40 Wk 41 Wk 42 Wk 43 Wk 44 Wk 45 Wk 46 Wk 47 Wk 48 Wk 49 Wk 50 Wk 51 Wk 52 India TV Aaj Tak India News ABP News Source: BARC India, ICICIdirect.com Research Along with Aaj Tak, India Today is also increasingly gaining traction with new journalists on board and new branding as it was recently christened as India Today. While Times Now continues to be a leader in the English news genre, India Today is consistently featuring in Top 4 English news channel. In the last few weeks of 2016, India Today has managed to achieve third position in 9/12 weeks in Q3FY17. ICICI Securities Ltd Retail Equity Research Page 3

4 Exhibit 3: Week (2016) BARC viewership data in English news genre 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, Wk 30 Wk 31 Wk 32 Wk 33 Wk 34 Wk 35 Wk 36 Wk 37 Wk 38 Wk 39 Wk 40 Wk 41 Wk 42 Wk 43 Wk 44 Wk 45 Wk 46 Wk 47 Wk 48 Wk 49 Wk 50 Wk 51 Wk 52 Times Now India Today CNN IBN 18 NDTV 24X7 Source: BARC India, ICICIdirect.com Research Subscription revenue to decline as Aaj Tak comes in DD Free Dish platform TV Today had entered into DD s Free Dish platform for an outlay of 6.0 crore. Such an entry will help the company garner better rural viewership share and, negotiate better terms with advertisers. However, it has led to renegotiations on subscription deals culminating into a quarterly impact of ~ 3.0 crore. The subscription revenue estimates have been curtailed accordingly to 20 crore in FY17E and FY18E respectively. Radio business shows some improvement, radio sale not on the cards TV today has done away its sale of radio FM stations to Entertainment Network India Ltd (ENIL) in the remaining stations of Delhi, Mumbai and Kolkata and the company is looking to reorganise the radio business. It has approached the Ministry of Information and Broadcasting (MIB) to seek permission to migrate its radio business from phase II to phase III which would entail an additional outlay of 77 crore, we have factored the same into our estimates. We expect radio revenues of 7.3 crore and 7.8 crore in FY17E and FY18E respectively. Our radio estimates are conservative and would be subject to upside risk post the management improves the performance of the segment with its renewed focus. EBITDA margins expected to expand to 31.3% by FY18E TV Today has incurred higher advertising expenses to the tune of ~ 15.6 crore in the process of re-branding its English news channel as India Today during FY16. In addition, the company has also incurred higher expenses towards overall brand building via barter deals with other print players in order to retain its leadership position in the increasingly competitive landscape of the Hindi news. The effect of the same is visible in the ratings improvement seen in the Hindi news genre. As it has gained back the lost viewership, we believe the expenses to be relatively softer. FY17E was hit by the demonetisation, which led to erosion of some operating leverage benefits. Going ahead, we expect EBITDA margins of 28.0% and 31.0% in FY17E and FY18E, respectively. Any outperformance in ad revenue estimates would be an upside risk to our estimates. ICICI Securities Ltd Retail Equity Research Page 4

5 Exhibit 4: EBITDA and PAT margin trends (%) FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E FY18E EBITDA Margin% NPM % ICICI Securities Ltd Retail Equity Research Page 5

6 Valuation TV Today has been able to maintain its leadership position in the Hindi news genre and is catching up on the viewership in the English news genre with its newly branded channel India Today. We expect TV Today to post a healthy 14.1% CAGR in operating profits in FY16-18E. We continue to like the company given its strong cash flow generation, sustained leadership in Hindi segment and expanding presence in English genre. We maintain our BUY recommendation and value the stock at a 15x FY18E EPS of 21.0, arriving at a target price of 315. Exhibit 5: Valuations Sales Growth EPS Growth PE EV/EBITDA RoNW RoCE ( cr) (%) ( ) (%) (x) (x) (%) (%) FY FY FY17E FY18E ICICI Securities Ltd Retail Equity Research Page 6

7 Recommendation History versus Consensus estimates ( ) Feb-15 Apr-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Feb-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov Feb-17 (%) Price Idirect target Consensus Target Mean % Consensus with BUY Source: Bloomberg, Company, ICICIdirect.com Research Key events Date Event Mar-10 Recommends dividend of 15% Mar-11 Joy Chakraborty appointed CEO of the company Mar-12 Puneet Jain appointed CFO of the company Dec-13 Trai mandates 12 minute ad cap on all broadcasters including news channels. The GECs curtail their inventory to adhere to the ad cap mandate but news Mar-14 Year turns out to be a blockbuster one with the company clocking 26.2% YoY ad revenue to crore. PAT grew to nearly 5x of FY13 PAT of 12.2 crore to 61.2 crore Oct-14 The government indicates at lifting 12 minute ad cap ban from free to air channels Feb-15 TV Today agrees to sell of its radio stations "Oye FM" to ENIL (Radio Mirchi) Sep-15 The company sells four of its stations in Amritsar, Patiala, Jodhpur, Shimla to Entertainment Network (India) Limited on a slump sale basis for a consideration of 4.0 crore. The remaining three stations in the metros are under litigation Top 10 Shareholders Invest Investor Name Latest Filing Date % O/S Positionsition Change 1 India Today Group 30-Sep SBI Funds Management Pvt. Ltd. 30-Sep Steinberg Asset Management, LLC 30-Sep Franklin Templeton Asset Management (India) Pvt. Ltd. 30-Sep Damani (Ramesh) 30-Sep Khattar (Arvind) 30-Sep Damani (Radhakishan S) 30-Sep Damani Estates & Finance Pvt. Ltd. 30-Sep Axis Asset Management Company Limited 31-Dec Jyske Invest Fund Management A/S 30-Nov Source: Reuters, ICICIdirect.com Research Shareholding Pattern (in %) Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Promoter FII DII Others Recent Activity Buys Sells Investor Name Value Shares Investor Name Value Shares SBI Funds Management Pvt. Ltd M +0.81M Reliance Nippon Life Asset Management Limited -1.48M -0.34M Steinberg Asset Management, LLC +3.35M +0.73M Sundaram Asset Management Company Limited -0.29M -0.06M Franklin Templeton Asset Management (India) Pvt. Ltd M +0.02M Khattar (Arvind) -0.05M -0.01M Van Eck Associates Corporation -0.03M -0.01M Goldman Sachs Asset Management (India) Private Ltd M -0.00M Source: Reuters, ICICIdirect.com Research ICICI Securities Ltd Retail Equity Research Page 7

8 Financial summary Profit and loss statement Crore (Year-end March) FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E Total operating Income Growth (%) Employee Expenses Production Cost Advertising and Promotion expenses Administrative Expenses Total Operating Expenditure EBITDA Growth (%) Depreciation Interest Other Income Exceptional Items PBT Minority Interest PAT from Associates Total Tax PAT Growth (%) EPS ( ) Cash flow statement Crore (Year-end March) FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E Profit after Tax Add: Depreciation Add: Interest Paid (Inc)/dec in Current Assets Inc/(dec) in CL and Provisions Others CF from operating activities (Inc)/dec in Investments (Inc)/dec in Fixed Assets Others CF from investing activities Issue/(Buy back) of Equity Inc/(dec) in loan funds Less:Interest Paid Less: Dividend and dividend tax Others CF from financing activities Net Cash flow Opening Cash Closing Cash Balance sheet Crore (Year-end March) FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E Liabilities Equity Capital Preference Share Capital Reserve and Surplus Total Shareholders funds Total Debt Others Total Liabilities Assets Gross Block Less: Acc Depreciation Net Block Capital WIP Total Fixed Assets Investments Inventory Debtors Loans and Advances Other Current Assets Cash Total Current Assets Creditors Provisions Other current liabilities Total Current Liabilities Net Current Assets Other non current assets Application of Funds Key ratios (Year-end March) FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E Per share data ( ) EPS Cash EPS BV DPS Cash Per Share Operating Ratios (%) EBITDA Margin PBT / Total Operating income PAT Margin Inventory days Debtor days Creditor days Return Ratios (%) RoE RoCE RoIC Valuation Ratios (x) P/E EV / EBITDA EV / Net Sales Market Cap / Sales Price to Book Value Solvency Ratios Debt/EBITDA Debt / Equity Current Ratio Quick Ratio ICICI Securities Ltd Retail Equity Research Page 8

9 ICICIdirect.com coverage universe (Media) CMP M Cap EPS ( ) P/E (x) EV/EBITDA (x) RoCE (%) RoE (%) Sector / Company ( ) TP( ) Rating ( Cr) FY16E FY17E FY18E FY16E FY17E FY18E FY16E FY17E FY18E FY16E FY17E FY18E FY16E FY17E FY18E DB Corp (DBCORP) Buy 7, DISH TV (DISHTV) Hold 9, ENIL (ENTNET) Hold 3, Eros (EROINT) Buy 1, HT Media (HTMED) Hold 1, Inox Leisure (INOX) Hold 2, PVR (PVRLIM) 1,283 1,475 Buy 5, Sun TV (SUNTV) Buy 29, TV Today (TVTNET) Buy 1, ZEE Ent. (ZEEENT) Buy 50, w ICICI Securities Ltd Retail Equity Research Page 9

10 RATING RATIONALE ICICIdirect.com endeavours to provide objective opinions and recommendations. ICICIdirect.com assigns ratings to its stocks according to their notional target price vs. current market price and then categorises them as Strong Buy, Buy, Hold and Sell. The performance horizon is two years unless specified and the notional target price is defined as the analysts' valuation for a stock. Strong Buy: >15%/20% for large caps/midcaps, respectively, with high conviction; Buy: >10%/15% for large caps/midcaps, respectively; Hold: Up to +/-10%; Sell: -10% or more; Pankaj Pandey Head Research pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com ICICIdirect.com Research Desk, ICICI Securities Limited, 1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre, Road No 7, MIDC, Andheri (East) Mumbai research@icicidirect.com ICICI Securities Ltd Retail Equity Research Page 10

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