ITC Ltd. RESULT UPDATE 27th October, 2017

Transcription

1 . RESULT UPDATE 27th October, 2017

2 Oct-14 Apr-15 Oct-15 Apr-16 Oct-16 Apr-17 Oct-17 India Equity Institutional Research II Result Update - II 27th October, 2017 CMP INR 269 Target INR 349 Potential Upside 29.7% Market Cap (INR Mn) 3,271,309.1 Poor Show Recommendation BUY Sector FMCG Result highlights posted its results which were below our estimates, Net revenue for reported at INR 97,639.2 Mn which de-grew by 28.3% YoY and by 29.2% QoQ. Mainly due Adverse Impact of GST which led to lower revenue from Cigarettes Segment. During H1, ITC posted net revenue of INR 235,643.4 Mn which declined by 12.3% YoY. EBIDTA during the quarter improved to by 1,138 bps QoQ and 1,187 YoY with 38.5% margins and stood at INR 37, During H1 EBITDA was INR 75,079.1 Mn with margins of 31.9, an increase of 523 bps YoY. PAT after exceptional item for stood at INR 26,398.4 Mn and margin at 27% which increased by 822 bps YoY and 848 bps QoQ. 2 MARKET DATA Shares outs (Mn) EquityCap (INR Mn) Mkt Cap (INR Mn) Wk H/L (INR) 353/222 Volume Avg (3m K) Face Value (INR) 1 Bloomberg Code ITC IN SHARE PRICE PERFORMANCE Sensex MARKET INFO SENSEX NIFTY KEY FINANCIALS (INR Mn) FY15 FY16 FY17 E FY19E Gross Sales EBITDA PAT EBITDA Margins % 36.6% 36.9% 36.1% 36.4% 36.8% PAT Margins % 25.1% 24.2% 24.5% 24.8% 24.9% EPS ROE 30.8% 22.3% 22.6% 23.7% 24.4% Poor Show by Cigarette Biz: The result of ITC was very disappointing. We believe that the GST impact and the poor performance of Cigarette segment led to de-growth in the top-line. Though the overall consumer demand is gradually improving post GST implementation but this improvement is not yet witnessed in the Cigarette category which accounts for major revenue share of ITCs total revenue. During the quarter ITC posted net revenue of INR 97,639.2 Mn which decreased by 28.3% YoY from INR 136,166.1 Mn in FY17 and decreased by 29.2% QoQ from 138,004.2 Mn in Q1. During the quarter the Cigarette segment posted revenue of INR 45,542.1 Mn which de-grew by 48.1% QoQ from INR 87,741.6 Mn in Q1 and de-grew by 46.6% YoY from INR 85,284.7 Mn in FY17. The revenue share of Cigarette category witnessed a sharp fall of bps QoQ from 55.5% in Q1 to 41.6% in and bps YoY from 58% in FY17 to 41.6% in, which remains a major concern. The Non-Cigarette FMCG segment witnessed mid-single digit growth during the quarter as well as compared to last year same period. The Non-Cigarette FMCG segment reported net revenue of INR 28,041.1 Mn which increased by 7.8% QoQ and 5% YoY, the revenue share of FMCG segment has increased by 91.8 bps QoQ from 16.5% in Q1 to 25.6% in and by 74.8 bps from 18.2% in FY17 to 25.6% in. The revenue share of Hotels, Agri and Paper segment improved by 8.2 bps, 5.2 bps and 33.7 bps respectively on QoQ basis, while the share increased by 7.2 bps, 52.1 bps and 29.2 bps respectively on YoY basis. During H1 the net revenue stood at INR 233,984.1 Mn which declined by 12.2% YoY from INR 266,480.5 Mn in H1FY17. Expansion in Margin: EBIDTA margins for ITC in were at 38.5% which saw an improvement of 1,138 bps QoQ and 1,187 bps YoY majorly due to stable raw material price and reversal of excise duty during the quarter. Other cost like employee showed 10.1% decline QoQ while it remained stable on YoY basis and other operating cost marginally decreased by 9.6% YoY and 6.4% QoQ. So mix of all these lead to expansion of EBIDTA. In EBIDTA stood at INR Mn with growth of around 3.6% YoY. During H1 EBITDA was INR 75,079.1 Mn which grew by 5% YoY and margins stood at 31.9% which increased by 523 bps YoY. Reported PAT for, was at INR 26,398.4 Mn with growth of 3.0% YoY and QoQ. PAT margins stood at 27.0% in vis-à-vis 18.8% in FY17 and 18.6% in Q1 mainly due to Cost management and operational efficiency. During H1 PAT was INR 52,003.4 Mn which increased by 6.5% YoY and margins stood at 27%, an increase of 822 bps YoY. SHARE HOLDING PATTERN (%) Sep 17 Jun 17 Mar 17 Promoters FIIs DIIs Others Total % 7.7% PAT CAGR between FY15 and Revenue CAGR between FY15 and FY19E FY19E

3 India Equity Institutional Research II Result Update - II 27th October, 2017 Valuations & Views: ITC is an old conglomerated company with its presence across diversify businesses like Cigarettes, FMCG, Hotels, Agri and Paper & Paper products. During, GST has impacted its overall businesses, we believe that cigarettes business would remain under pressure due to high taxation while focus is to grow FMCG and other business which would see growth and improvement in future. However management focus is to diversify its business into FMCG from cigarettes by entering new segment with innovative products. ITC aims to generate around 25-30% revenue from FMCG in next 3-4 years. We believe ITC has created brand image with its strong product portfolio and would post its revenue growth of around 10-12% in E & FY19E with growth driven mainly by its FMCG and other businesses. Its EBIDTA and PAT margins will be stable at around 26.8% and 18.2%, respectively. At the CMP of INR 269, ITC is trading at an EPS of INR 10.8 its FY19E, we recommend BUY rating on the stock, with a target price of INR 349 that offers a potential upside of 29.7%. 3 Result Snapshot Exhibit 1 Quarterly Income Statement (INR Mn) Q1 FY17 Q-o-Q Net Sales & Other Operating Income % -28.3% Total Expenditure % -39.9% Cost of Raw Materials % -4.7% Purchase of Finished Goods % 11.5% (Increase) / Decrease In Stocks % Excise Duty % % Employee Cost % 1.0% Operating & Manufacturing Expenses % -9.6% EBIDTA % 3.6% EBITDA Margins (%) 38.5% 27.1% 26.7% 1138bps 1187bps Depreciation % 5.2% EBIT % 3.5% Other Income % 3.7% Interest % 113.0% PBT % 3.1% Tax % 3.4% PAT before Exceptional % 3.0% PAT Margin (%) 27.0% 18.6% 18.8% 848bps 822bps EPS % 2.8% Exhibit 2 Segmental Revenue (INR Mn) Q1 Q-o-Q FY17 FMCG - Cigarettes % -46.6% FMCG - Others % 5.0% Total FMCG % -34.3% Hotel % 1.0% Agri Business % 4.7% Paperboards, Paper & Packing % -1.7% Total % -25.7%

4 India Equity Institutional Research II Result Update - II 27th October, 2017 Exhibit 3 Segmental EBIT (INR Mn) 4 Q1 FY17 Q-o-Q FMCG - Cigarettes % 1.8% FMCG - Others % % Total FMCG % 3.1% Hotel % 552.3% Agri Business % -13.7% Paperboards, Paper & Packing % 18.2% Total % 2.8% Less: interest Exp % 170.6% Add/Less: (other) % 34.9% PBT % 3.1% Exhibit 4 Segmental EBIT Margins (INR Mn) Q1 FY17 Q-o-Q FMCG - Cigarettes 72.3% 37.3% 37.7% 3496bps 3456bps FMCG - Others 0.7% 0.2% -0.1% 52bps 85bps Total FMCG 45.0% 28.8% 28.7% 1618bps 1632bps Hotel 1.4% 1.7% 0.2% -33bps 119bps Agri Business 13.0% 8.5% 15.8% 450bps -278bps Paperboards, Paper & Packing 20.9% 18.9% 17.4% 3986bps 3836bps Total 72.3% 37.3% 37.7% 3496bps 3456bps Exhibit 5 H1 Income Statement (INR Mn) H1 H1 FY17 Net Sales & Other Operating Income 235, , % Total Expenditure 160, , % Cost of Raw Materials 57, , % Purchase of Finished Goods 15, , % (Increase) / Decrease In Stocks 8, , % Excise Duty 32, , % Employee Cost 12, , % Operating & Manufacturing Expenses 32, , % EBIDTA 75, , % EBITDA Margins (%) 31.9% 26.6% 523bps Depreciation 5, , % EBIT 69, , % Other Income 9, , % Interest % PBT 78, , % Tax 26, , % PAT after Exceptional 52, , % PAT Margin (%) 27.0% 18.6% 848bps EPS %

5 India Equity Institutional Research II Result Update - II 27th October, 2017 Exhibit 6 - Income Statement (INR Mn) 5 (INR Mn) FY15 FY16 FY17 E FY19E Gross Sales EXPENDITURE : Cost of Materials Consumed Purchase of Stock In Trade (Increase) / Decrease In Stocks Total RM Costs Excise Duty Employee Cost Other Expenses Total Expenditure Operating Profit (EBIDTA) EBIDTA Margin % 26.7% 26.2% 26.3% 26.5% 26.8% Depreciation Operating Profit (EBIT) Other Income Interest Profit before Tax Provision for Tax Profit After Tax PAT Margin % 18.4% 17.2% 17.8% 18.1% 18.2% Exhibit 7- Segmental Revenue Share (%) FY17 Cigarettes 41.6% Paper 12.0% FMCG 25.6% Agri 18.0% Hotel 2.7% Cigarettes 58.0% FMCG 18.2% Agri 12.8% Paper 9.1% Hotel 2.0%

6 India Equity Institutional Research II Result Update - II 27th October, 2017 Exhibit 8 - Balance Sheet (INR Mn) 6 (INR Mn) FY15 FY16 FY17 E FY19E EQUITY AND LIABILITIES Share Capital Total Reserves Shareholder's Funds Minority Interest Long-Term Borrowings Deferred Tax Assets / Liabilities Long Term Provisions Other Long Term Liabilities Total Non-Current Liabilities Current Liabilities Trade Payables Short Term Borrowings Short Term Provisions Other Current Liabilities Total Current Liabilities Total Liabilities ASSETS Non-Current Assets Net Block Capital Work in Progress Godwill on consolidation Non Current Investments Deffered tax assets Long Term Loans & Advances Other Non Current Assets Total Non-Current Assets Current Assets Inventories Sundry Debtors Cash and Bank Currents Investments Short Term Loans and Advances Other Current Assets Total Current Assets Total Assets

7 India Equity Institutional Research II Result Update - II 27th October, 2017 Exhibit 9 - Cash flow statement (INR Mn) 7 (INR Mn) FY15 FY16 FY17 E FY19E PBT Add: Depreciation Add: Interest Cash flow from Operations Cash flow from Investing Activity Cash flow from Financing Activity Net change in Cash (Inflow/Outflow) Total Cash & Bank Balance Exhibit 10 - Ratio Analysis FY15 FY16 FY17 E FY19E EPS BV DPS EBITDA Margin (%) 36.6% 36.9% 36.1% 36.4% 36.8% PAT Margin (%) 25.1% 24.2% 24.5% 24.8% 24.9% Net Sales Growth % 8.9% 0.9% 9.2% 10.0% 12.0% EBIDTA Growth % -4.4% 1.8% 6.8% 11.1% 13.2% PAT Growth % -9.5% -2.7% 10.2% 11.7% 12.5% PE (x) Price/BV EV/EBITDA EV/Sales ROE (%) 30.8% 22.3% 22.6% 23.7% 24.4% ROCE % 29.7% 27.4% 26.5% 27.4% 28.8% Debt/Equity % 0.8% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%

8 India Equity Institutional Research II Result Update - II 27th October, Rating Legend Date CMP (INR) TP (INR) Recommendation Our Rating Upside 27-Oct BUY 27-Jul BUY Buy More than 15% 26-May ACCUMULATE 27-Jan BUY Accumulate 5% 15% 26-Oct BUY 22-July * 351 BUY Hold 0 5% 20-May BUY 20-Apr BUY Reduce -5% 0 22-Jan BUY 12-Jan BUY Sell Less than 5% *Note: Split in ratio 3:2 from 1 st July, CERTIFICATION: We, Nirvi Ashar (B.com, MBA), research analyst and Kunal Jagda (B.com, MBA), research associate, author and the name subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. I also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. Terms & Conditions and other disclosures: KRChoksey Shares and Securities Pvt. 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