Biocon (BIOCON) Back on track. Result Update WHAT S CHANGED. ICICI Securities Ltd Retail Equity Research. October 21, 2011
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1 Result Update Rating matrix Rating : Buy Target : 432 Target Period : months Potential Upside : 24 % Key Financials ( Crore) FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E Net Sales EBITDA Net Profit Valuation summary FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E EPS ( ) PE (x) Target PE (x) EV to EBITDA (x) Price to book (x) RoNW (%) RoCE (%) Stock data Market Capitalisation 6940 crore Debt (FY11) 334 crore Cash (FY11) 441 crore EV 6833 crore 52 week H/L 456/301 Equity capital ( Crore) 100 crore Face value ( ) 5 MF Holding (%) 10.8 FII Holding (%) 4.8 Price movement 6, 6,000 5,700 5, 5,100 4,800 4,500 Nov-10 Analyst s name Jan-11 Price (R.H.S) Apr-11 Siddhant Khandekar siddhant.khandekar@icicisecurities.com Krishna Kiran Konduri krishna.konduri@icicisecurities.com Jul-11 Nifty (L.H.S) Oct WHAT S CHANGED October 21, 2011 PRICE TARGET...Unchanged EPS (FY09E)...Unchanged EPS (FY10E)...Unchanged RATING...Unchanged Back on track Biocon s Q2FY12 results were more or less in line with our expectations. Net sales increased by 21% to crore in line with our expectation of 520 crore, driven by both biopharmaceuticals (up 21%) and research services business (up 19%). Licensing income during the quarter stood at 37 crore against our expectation of 35 crore. In the quarter under review, Pfizer launched two insulin products in the domestic market. EBITDA margins declined by 390 bps to 27.2% on a YoY basis on the back of an increase in the R&D cost and employee cost. Despite pressure on EBITDA margins, the net profit stood at 85.7 crore as against our expectation of 87 crore on the back higher other income. We have maintained our BUY rating on the stock. Our analysis in the report is based after excluding Axicorp numbers in Q2FY11. Reusable pen device launched in domestic market Biocon (BIOCON) Biocon has recently launched reusable insulin delivery device INSUPen in the domestic market. INSUPen is a differentiated device based on proprietary German technology designed for efficiency, accuracy and safety. INSUPen is a device, which can deliver both Basalog and Insugen. The company has recruited 125 diabetic care advisors to support the users. Improvement consistency visible in R&D services business 347 The R&D services business has been witnessing double digit growth in the last three or four quarters. During the quarter, the sales increased by 19% YoY to 92.8 crore on the back of expanded business from existing clients and the addition of new clients. Net profit margins increased from 11% in Q1FY12 to 15% in the quarter under review. Valuation Traction from Fidaxomicin supplies, launches in the diabetic space and revival in R&D income are some of the strongholds for Biocon. It is currently trading at ~18x FY12E EPS of 19.3 and 14.5x ~ FY13E EPS of 24. We have valued the stock at 18x FY13E EPS of 24 i.e. 432 maintaining our BUY rating. We also recommend that investors who bought the stock at the time of earlier reports hold the same. Exhibit 1: Financial Performance ( Crore) Q2 FY12A Q2 FY12E Q2FY11 Q1FY12 YoY Gr.(%) QoQ Gr.(%) Net Sales EBITDA EBITDA Margin (%) Depreciation Interest Reported PAT EPS ( ) ICICI Securities Ltd Retail Equity Research
2 Lower licensing of 37 crore as against 23 crore in Q2FY11 Exhibit 2: Biopharma business grows by 21% YoY Net sales up 21% YoY Biocon s net sales on a comparable basis grew by 21% to crore in line with our expectation of 520 crore, driven by both the biopharmaceuticals and research services business. Licensing income during the quarter stood at 37 crore vs. our expectation of 35 crore. Exhibit 3: R&D services increased by 19% YoY BioPharma* R&D services Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com, Research; * excluding licensing income Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com, Research The biopharmaceutical business increased by 21% YoY to crore mainly on the back of strong growth in branded formulations business. The biopharma business excluding licensing income grew by 18% YoY mainly on the back of Fidaxomicin Anti-infective (API) supplies to Optimer. Biocon started supplying Fidaxomicin from June The company is the sole supplier for the innovator. As Optimer is witnessing incremental demand, the API offtake from Biocon would increase, going ahead. Pfizer launched Human Insulin and Glargine in the Indian market during the quarter Exhibit 4: Lower licensing income The branded formulation business witnessed robust growth of 30% to 64 crore due to strong growth in the diabetology and cardiology segments. As per AIOCD data, the diabetology and cardiology segment registered strong growth of ~18%. During the quarter, Pfizer launched Human Insulin and Glargine under the brand names Univia and Glavia in India. The research services business witnessed healthy growth of 19% YoY to 92.8 crore on the back of expansion by existing clients and the addition of new clients. Exhibit 5: Sales up by 21% Licensing Income Net sales Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com, Research Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com, Research ICICI Securities Ltd Retail Equity Research Page 2
3 The company recently launched reusable insulin delivery device INSUPen in the domestic market. INSUPen is a differentiated device based on proprietary German technology designed for efficiency, accuracy and safety. INSUPen is a device, which can deliver both Basalog and Insugen. The company has recruited 125 diabetic care advisors to support the users. EBITDA margins remain flat EBITDA margins declined by 390 bps to 27.2% on a YoY basis on the back of an increase in the R&D cost and employee cost. With increase in the employees in both R&D and manufacturing space, the employee cost increased by 150 bps to 15.3% as a percentage of sales. The R&D cost during the quarter stood at 31 crore as against 20 crore in the corresponding previous period. Despite higher licensing income, contribution at the EBITDA level during the quarter was 10 crore compared to 23 crore in Q2FY12 on the back of certain development and regulatory costs. Hence, despite strong growth in sales, the EBITDA in value terms increased by 5.9% to crore below our expectation of 153 crore. Net profit up by 4.7% YoY Other income during the quarter was higher by 77.6% to 11 crore while interest cost declined by 67% to 2 crore and PBT increased by 12.5% to crore. The higher tax rate of 18% as against 12% in the corresponding previous period restricted net profit growth to 4.7% at 85.7 crore. The net profit for R&D services stood at 14 crore during the quarter. Valuation The branded formulations business of the company has posted strong double digit growth and is expected to maintain the same on account of all six therapeutic categories. Biocon has a focussed approach in the diabetology space, be it launch of human insulin and Glagine by Pfizer in India in line with the recent agreement, or the much awaited launch of INSUPen. Similarly, we expect good traction from the Fidaxomicin supplies to Optimer as Optimer has upgraded its sales forecast of Deficid from US$1 billion to US$2 billion (as per management). Till now, Biocon remains the sole supplier. The rejuvenated R&D performance also augurs well in the long run. We expect sales and profits (after adjusting Axicorp numbers in FY11) to grow at a CAGR of 22% and 20%, respectively, between FY11 and FY13E. Biocon is currently trading at ~18x FY12E EPS of 19.3 and 14.5x ~ FY13E EPS of 24. We have valued Biocon at 18x FY13E EPS of 24 i.e. 432 maintaining our BUY rating. We also recommend that investors who bought the stock at the time of earlier reports hold the same. Exhibit 6: Valuation Matrix Sales ( Cr) EPS ( ) PE(x) EV/E (x) RoNW (%) RoCE (%) FY FY FY12E FY13E ICICI Securities Ltd Retail Equity Research Page 3
4 ICICIdirect.com coverage universe (Pharma) Elder Pharma Sales ( Cr) EPS ( ) PE(x) EV/E (x) RoNW (%) RoCE (%) Idirect Code ELDPHA CMP 370 FY Target 419 FY Mcap ( crore) Upside (%) 13 FY12E FY13E Biocon Idirect Code BIOCON CMP 347 FY Target 432 FY Mcap ( crore) Upside (%) 24 FY12E FY13E IPCA Labs Idirect Code IPCLAB CMP 328 FY Target 366 FY Mcap ( crore) Upside (%) 12 FY12E FY13E Sun Pharma Idirect Code SUNPHA CMP 518 FY Target 495 FY Mcap ( crore) Upside (%) -4 FY12E FY13E Glenmark Idirect Code GLEPHA CMP 338 FY Target 396 FY Mcap ( crore) Upside (%) 17 FY12E FY13E Lupin Idirect Code LUPIN CMP 462 FY Target 530 FY Mcap ( crore) Upside (%) 15 FY12E FY13E Unichem Labs Idirect Code UNILAB CMP 145 FY Target 158 FY Mcap ( crore) 1.0 Upside (%) 9 FY12E FY13E Indoco Remedies Idirect Code INDREM CMP 415 FY Target 468 FY Mcap ( crore) 510 Upside (%) 13 FY12E FY13E Opto Circuits Idirect Code OPTCIR CMP 287 FY Target 309 FY Mcap ( crore) % Upside 8% FY12E FY13E Cadila Healthcare Idirect Code CADHEA CMP 874 FY Target 953 FY Mcap ( crore) % Upside 9% FY12E FY13E Torrent Pharma Idirect Code TORPHA CMP 582 FY Target 678 FY Mcap ( crore) % Upside 16% FY12E FY13E ICICI Securities Ltd Retail Equity Research Page 4
5 ICICIdirect.com coverage universe (Pharma) Aurobindo Pharma Sales ( cr) EPS ( ) PE(x) EV/E (x) RoNW (%) RoCE (%) Idirect Code AURPHA CMP 157 FY Target 233 FY11 Sub head one Mcap ( crore) 4571 % Upside 48% FY12E FY13E Sub head two Strides Arcolab Idirect Code STRARC CMP 310 Sub head three CY09 FP Header Target 426 CY Mcap ( crore) % Upside 37% CY11E CY12E Exhibit 7: Recommendation Table Date Event CMP Target Price Rating 10-Jan-11 Q3FY11 Preview BUY 24-Jan-11 Q3FY11 Result Update BUY 8-Apr-11 Q4FY11 Preview BUY 29-Apr-11 Q4FY11 Result Update BUY 4-Jul-11 Q1FY12 Preview BUY 22-Jul-11 Q1FY12 Result Update BUY 5-Oct-11 Q2FY12 Preview BUY Exhibit 8: Recommendation History Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Price Target Price [ ICICI Securities Ltd Retail Equity Research Page 5
6 RATING RATIONALE ICICIdirect.com endeavours to provide objective opinions and recommendations. ICICIdirect.com assigns ratings to its stocks according to their notional target price vs. current market price and then categorises them as Strong Buy, Buy, Hold and Sell. The performance horizon is two years unless specified and the notional target price is defined as the analysts' valuation for a stock. Strong Buy: >15%/20% for large caps / midcaps, respectively; Buy: Between 10% and 15%/20% for large caps / midcaps, respectively; Hold: Up to +/-10%; Sell: -10% or more; Pankaj Pandey Head Research pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com ICICIdirect.com Research Desk, ICICI Securities Limited, 1 st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre, Road No. 7, MIDC, Andheri (East) Mumbai 093 research@icicidirect.com ANALYST CERTIFICATION We /I, Siddhant Khandekar CA INTER Krishna Kiran Konduri MBA FINANCE research analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our personal views about any and all of the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. Analysts aren't registered as research analysts by FINRA and might not be an associated person of the ICICI Securities Inc. Disclosures: ICICI Securities Limited (ICICI Securities) and its affiliates are a full-service, integrated investment banking, investment management and brokerage and financing group. We along with affiliates are leading underwriter of securities and participate in virtually all securities trading markets in India. We and our affiliates have investment banking and other business relationship with a significant percentage of companies covered by our Investment Research Department. Our research professionals provide important input into our investment banking and other business selection processes. ICICI Securities generally prohibits its analysts, persons reporting to analysts and their dependent family members from maintaining a financial interest in the securities or derivatives of any companies that the analysts cover. The information and opinions in this report have been prepared by ICICI Securities and are subject to change without any notice. The report and information contained herein is strictly confidential and meant solely for the selected recipient and may not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent of ICICI Securities. While we would endeavour to update the information herein on reasonable basis, ICICI Securities, its subsidiaries and associated companies, their directors and employees ( ICICI Securities and affiliates ) are under no obligation to update or keep the information current. Also, there may be regulatory, compliance or other reasons that may prevent ICICI Securities from doing so. Non-rated securities indicate that rating on a particular security has been suspended temporarily and such suspension is in compliance with applicable regulations and/or ICICI Securities policies, in circumstances where ICICI Securities is acting in an advisory capacity to this company, or in certain other circumstances. This report is based on information obtained from public sources and sources believed to be reliable, but no independent verification has been made nor is its accuracy or completeness guaranteed. This report and information herein is solely for informational purpose and may not be used or considered as an offer document or solicitation of offer to buy or sell or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. Though disseminated to all the customers simultaneously, not all customers may receive this report at the same time. ICICI Securities will not treat recipients as customers by virtue of their receiving this report. Nothing in this report constitutes investment, legal, accounting and tax advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to your specific circumstances. The securities discussed and opinions expressed in this report may not be suitable for all investors, who must make their own investment decisions, based on their own investment objectives, financial positions and needs of specific recipient. This may not be taken in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment by any recipient. The recipient should independently evaluate the investment risks. The value and return of investment may vary because of changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates or any other reason. ICICI Securities and affiliates accept no liabilities for any loss or damage of any kind arising out of the use of this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Investors are advised to see Risk Disclosure Document to understand the risks associated before investing in the securities markets. Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in projections. Forward-looking statements are not predictions and may be subject to change without notice. ICICI Securities and its affiliates might have managed or co-managed a public offering for the subject company in the preceding twelve months. ICICI Securities and affiliates might have received compensation from the companies mentioned in the report during the period preceding twelve months from the date of this report for services in respect of public offerings, corporate finance, investment banking or other advisory services in a merger or specific transaction. It is confirmed that Siddhant Khandekar CA INTER Krishna Kiran Konduri MBA FINANCE research analysts and the authors of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months. Our research professionals are paid in part based on the profitability of ICICI Securities, which include earnings from Investment Banking and other business. ICICI Securities or its subsidiaries collectively do not own 1% or more of the equity securities of the Company mentioned in the report as of the last day of the month preceding the publication of the research report. It is confirmed that Siddhant Khandekar CA INTER Krishna Kiran Konduri MBA FINANCE director or advisory board member of the companies mentioned in the report. research analysts and the authors of this report or any of their family members does not serve as an officer, ICICI Securities may have issued other reports that are inconsistent with and reach different conclusion from the information presented in this report. ICICI Securities and affiliates may act upon or make use of information contained in the report prior to the publication thereof. This report is not directed or intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction, where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law, regulation or which would subject ICICI Securities and affiliates to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. The securities described herein may or may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain category of investors. Persons in whose possession this document may come are required to inform themselves of and to observe such restriction. ICICI Securities Ltd Retail Equity Research Page 6
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