Knight Frank Valuations

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1 The purpose of this paper is to provide some context around historical yield trends in the Sydney CBD and suburban office markets over the last years (depending upon the extent of the data between markets). It also includes an approximate measure of standard deviation over the analysed period in an attempt to define trading bands and volatility in the respective markets analysed. This paper was originally drafted prior to the IPG/CIC transaction. Given the initial analysis of this transaction has now been undertaken by Knight Frank Valuations (as distributed 6th August), we have included the general parameters indicated by this transaction within our analysis. KEY POINTS SYDNEY CBD - Prior to the IPG sale, the prime CBD market indicated yield compression of basis points over 2014/2015. The IPG portfolio sale indicates further compression, although the unique portfolio aspects need to be considered (as discussed within our market update paper 6 th August). - Yields for well located secondary stock in the Sydney CBD have compressed by basis points over the past 6-12 months. - Prime and secondary stock within the Sydney CBD now trading below their 10 year average. The IPG sale in particular would tend to indicate that the prime market is now at or close to 2007 peak levels. - Only the Sydney secondary market remains trading within its longer term standard deviation, although is expected to breach this in the near term. - Yield convergence between prime and secondary is gaining initial momentum, but remains far from the margins seen at previous 2007 peak levels. - Yield compression is likely to be strongest in the shorter term within the A-grade and secondary markets. A-grade compression has partly been evidenced by the recent IPG sale and other assets reportedly coming to the market (i.e. 420 George Street) in the near future will be monitored closely. Where are we in the Cycle? The question of where we are in the cycle is one of the leading questions in the market at present. Whilst every cycle differs with regard to its drivers, a charting of trends and previous cycles can provide some context as to where we are at today. Furthermore if sufficient data is available over these cycles, some form of analysis can then be undertaken which shows the extent of peak to trough movements, the volatility of the markets on the downside and upside, and the approximate standard deviation or variation around the mean/average. Outlined within are graphs relating to various Sydney markets with data generally extending back years depending upon the market. The analysis within includes reference to the IPG sales as a grouping of sales given that individual asset pricing has not been disclosed, although has been analysed by Knight Frank Valuations.

2 Prime Sydney CBD ( ) Prime Sydney CBD Office Yields - Knight Frank Valuations 8.50% 8.00% 7.50% 7.00% 6.50% 1 Martin Place Aurora Place 60 Martin Place (50%) Citigroup Centre Darling Park (20%) 388 George GPT/GMT 2 Market 400 George Chifley Tower 1 O'Connell 15 year average % 35 Clarence 320 Pitt 7 Macquarie Pl 259 George 52 Martin Pl 77 King 20 Bridge St Aurora Place 8 Chifley 126 Phillip 9 Castlereagh 201 Kent Piccadily Tower* 135 King 20 Hunter 35 Clarence NAB House Grosvenor Place 6.00% 5.50% 126 Phillip Goldfields 275 Kent Street 52 Martin Place IPT Portfolio - Overall Portfolio Lattitude East 5.00% 4.50% 4.00% Jun-00 Jun-01 Jun-02 Jun-03 Jun-04 Jun-05 Jun-06 Jun-07 Jun-08 Jun-09 Jun-10 Jun-11 Jun-12 Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-15 Note: This chart does not include every sale only representative trend sales * Piccadilly Tower reflects apportionment from total purchase price 15 year 6.75% +/-0.4% (+/-40 basis points around average reflecting a band of 6.35%-7.15%) Current Yield Range v 15 year average (trading above or below) Was trading at around 0.50%-0.75% below the average, although this is considered to have shifted to around 1.0% % following IPG deal. Trading within Standard Deviation? Was bordering standard deviation prior to IPG sale. Has now shifted outside and is trading below the deviation on the upside. Trend line indicates that the prime market (defined as Premium and A-grade) was trending on the boundaries of its 15 year standard deviation prior to the IPG sale. However, the yield range has now shifted well outside the standard deviation following the IPG sale. A-grade has firmed following the IPG sale, although it is Premium that is now trading at or close to 2007 levels (see Premium data following). Defining an accurate yield range for A-grade stock has been complicated by the IPG sale. We expect A-grade to show quite significant compression post the IPG sale. Along with the premium market, this grade tends to have an upper/softer yield trading parameter in poor investment markets generally within the standard deviation (indicating less downside risk than the secondary market which would be expected). Furthermore it spends less time trading within the correction zone (i.e. above its 10 year average), albeit the majority of transactions actually occur within these periods.

3 Premium Sydney CBD ( ) Premium Sydney CBD Office Yields - Knight Frank Valuations 8.00% 8.00% 7.50% Citigroup Centre 7.50% 7.00% 7.00% Aurora Place Darling Park (80%) 6.50% Darling Park (20%) GPT/GMT Chifley Tower 15 year average - 6.3% 8 Chifley Aurora Place Grosvenor Place 126 Phillip 6.50% 6.00% 126 Phillip 275 Kent Street 6.00% 5.50% IPT Portfolio - Overall Portfolio 5.50% Latitude East 5.00% IPT Portfolio - Prime "Trophy" Assets 5.00% 4.50% 4.50% Sep-99 Aug-00 Aug-01 Aug-02 Aug-03 Aug-04 Aug-05 Aug-06 Aug-07 Aug-08 Aug-09 Aug-10 Aug-11 Aug-12 Aug-13 Aug-14 Aug-15 Note: This chart does not include every sale only representative trend sales * Piccadilly Tower reflects apportionment from total purchase price 15 year 6.30% +/-0.4% (+/-40 basis points around average reflecting a band of 5.9%-6.7%) Current Yield Range v 15 year average (trading above or below) Was trading at around 0.50%-0.75% below the average, although this is considered to have shifted to around 1.25% following IPG deal. Trading within? Prior to the IPG sale the premium market was trading outside the standard deviation on the upside. This has been further extended by the IPG sale and levels are now at or close to Assuming a current yield range for Premium stock of 5.0% %, the Premium market is considered to be trading on the upside, well outside of its 15 year standard deviation and close to or at 2007 levels. Similar to the prime market, the premium market has a lower standard deviation than the secondary markets (which again, would be expected). Along with the overall prime market, this grade tends to have an upper/softer yield trading parameter in poor investment markets generally within the standard deviation (indicating less downside risk). Furthermore it spends less time trading above its 10 year average, albeit the majority of transactions actually occur within these periods. Tends to re-rate more sharply in market upswings. Lesser turnover volume in strong investment markets does tend to make accurate yield assessment more difficult. Due the general absence of premium sales in a strong investment market, typically the premium market will reflect valuations at tighter/lower yields than the most recent premium sales based upon compression in other grades. The IPG sale does provide an opportunity for some benchmarking, although consideration also needs to be given to the portfolio nature of the sale.

4 Secondary Sydney CBD( ) Secondary Sydney CBD Office Yields - Knight Frank Valuations 10.00% 9.50% 9.00% 8.50% 8.00% 7.50% 7.00% 6.50% 6.00% 5.50% 5.00% 1 York 60 Carrington 59 Goulburn 130 Elizabeth Sussex 140 Sussex 66 Hunter 10 Bridge 120 Sussex Bathurst 400 Kent Goulburn 155 George 333 George 233 Castlereagh 345 George 15 year average - 7.5% Pitt 227 Elizabeth 130 Elizabeth 60 Carrington 130 Pitt 280 George 10 Barrack 89 York 50 Margaret 286 Sussex 117 Clarence 233 Castlereagh 333 Kent 121 Harrington 234 Sussex 55 Clarence 6-10 O'Connell Centennial Plaza 171 Clarence 59 Goulburn 50 Carrington 309 George 333 Kent 80 Clarence 10 Bridge 400 Kent 66 Goulburn 80 Clarence 8 Spring 10 Barrack 107 Pitt 171 Clarence 6-10 O'Connell 66 Clarence 179 Elizabeth 50 Carrington 44 Martin Place 175 Liverpool 50 Pitt 210 & 220 George 75 Elizabeth 309 George 4.50% 4.00% Jun-00 Jun-01 Jun-02 Jun-03 Jun-04 Jun-05 Jun-06 Jun-07 Jun-08 Jun-09 Jun-10 Jun-11 Jun-12 Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-15 Note: This chart does not include every secondary sale only representative trend sales 15 year 7.5% +/-0.8% (+/-80 basis points around average reflecting a band of 6.7% - 8.3%) Current Yield Range v 15 year average (trading above or below) Trading within Standard Deviation? -0.5%-0.75% below Yes but approaching and likely to move outside in the n ear term Whilst yields for secondary stock can be inconsistent and are more skewed by locational and quality differences, in general yields for well located secondary stock in the Sydney CBD have compressed by basis points over the past 6-12 months Recently trending around 0.5%-0.75% below the 10 year average. Whilst below the 10 year average, yields for secondary remain well above their previous market peak in 2007 and just inside their standard deviation (although likely to move outside in the short term). This alone would tend to indicate good relative value. The secondary market spends a longer period above the 10 year average (in the correction zone) and sales in a weak investment market tend to show a wide inconsistency in yields with trading generally anywhere between basis points above the 10 years average. This thereby results in the higher standard deviation/pricing risk. Yields within this grade generally converge and trade in a tighter and more definable band as market conditions improve. This tends to indicate that quality and locational differences which result in a wide spread of yields in poorer conditions, become less of a concern in stronger market conditions. The IPG sale does not provide any benchmarks within the secondary market, although the general compression indicated by this deal is likely to flow through to the secondary market. Accordingly, transactions within this market will be monitored closely and we expect continued compression in the near term.

5 KEY POINTS SUBURBAN MARKETS - Yield compression evidenced across overall Suburban market, particularly over the past 6 months. - The overall Suburban market, Parramatta and North Sydney are generally trading within or on the limits of their analysed standard deviation on the upside thereby still implying good relative value historically. - Yield compression is expected to gain further momentum over the remainder of Analysis of the last cycle indicates that the suburban markets overall demonstrate greater peak to trough volatility (as would be expected), tend to over-correct versus the Sydney CBD, but show earlier compression when value is recognised. North Sydney ( ) North Sydney Office Yields A & B Grade - Knight Frank Valuations Miller West 51 Berry 80 Mount Berry 107 Mount 75 Miller 2 Elizabeth 50 Berry 32 Walker 116 Miller 146 Arthur 140 Arthur 53 Berry 50 Miller 168 Walker 132 Arthur 99 Mount 2 Elizabeth Plaza Pacific 90 Mount 99 Walker 116 Miller 75 Miller 107 Mount 140 Arthur 99 Mount 2 Elizabeth 99 Walker 181 Miller 40 Mount (A) 10 year Average - 8.2% 99 Walker Northpoint 73 Miller 140 Arthur 177 Pacific Hwy (A) 101 Miller (Premium) Berry 5.00 Jul-03 Jun-04 Jun-05 Jun-06 Jun-07 Jun-08 Jun-09 Jun-10 Jun-11 Jun-12 Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun year 8.20% +/-0.85% (+/-85 basis points around average, reflecting a band of 7.35%-9.05%) Current Yield Range v 10 year average (trading above or below) Trading within? -0.5%-0.75% Yes but approaching. The inclusion of 80 Pacific Highway as part of the IPG sale indicates a tight analysed yield although portfolio considerations need to be accounted for. Yields on average have firmed by -0.75%-1.0% over the past 6-9 months and are trending below their longer term average, albeit within the estimated standard deviation on the upside. The inclusion of 80 Pacific Highway as part of the IPG sale indicates a tight analysed yield for North Sydney of close to 6.5%. Given that this asset comprised a relatively small weighting of the entire IPG deal (i.e. likely around 5% of total price), the pricing is likely to have been impacted by the dominant component of the portfolio and hence more sales of single assets in North Sydney would be required to confirm whether any substantial re-set of North Sydney yields has occurred (albeit we appreciate there is general compression pressure).

6 Similar to the wider suburban market, yields have a tendency to over-correct in the down cycle and show a wide trading range and inconsistency in poor investment market conditions (which is also a reflection of the variable quality of assets within this market). An interesting point of point comparison is the sale of 140 Arthur Street in December 2012 at a core market yield of 9.4%, which was recently re-traded in June 2015 at an analysed yield of 7.5% Price and variable comparisons between transaction dates can be searched on the KF ValSal App where an option is provided to scroll between dates where an asset has sold previously between ). Parramatta ( ) Sydney Parramatta Suburban Office Yields Office -Yields Knight Frank Valuations year average - 8.7% 87 Marsden St 80 George St 18 Smith St 91 Phillip St Charles St 1-3 Fitzwilliam St Wentworth St Smith St Phillip St 3 Horwood Pl 80 George St 1-3 Fitzwilliam St 1-3 Fitzwilliam St 9 George St 132 Marsden St 110 George St 25 Smith St Octagon, 110 George St 2-10 Wentworth St 87 Marsden St (IY) 3 Horwood Pl 20 Charles St 1 Charles St 80 George St 91 Phillip St 7.00 Octagon, 110 George St 1 Smith St 9 George St Jul-03 Jun-04 Jun-05 Jun-06 Jun-07 Jun-08 Jun-09 Jun-10 Jun-11 Jun-12 Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-15 Note: This chart does not include every sale only representative trend sales 12 year 8.7% +/-0.8% (+/-80 basis points around average reflecting a band of 7.9%-9.5%) Current Yield Range v 10 year average (trading above or below) Trading within? %-1.0% Recent sales indicate that this market is starting to trade below standard deviation on upside. Has a slightly lower standard deviation that the overall suburban market (see data following), but generally trends in line with the wider suburban market. Recent sales within Parramatta (excluding prime long term lease or fund through deals such as 1 Parramatta Square and Justice Precinct) have indicated a strong recent re-rating of yields from levels of around % during 2013/2014 to 8.0%-8.25% in late 2014 and into 2015, with sub- 8.0% levels now being tested. Has shown stronger recent re-rating than the wider suburban market (which would be expected in market upswings) and is now trading just outside its standard deviation and below its 10 year average.

7 For some time we have indicated that Parramatta and many suburban markets have indicated favourable buying relative to their 10 year average yield. It appears this disparity has been recognised over the past 6-9 months. Several vendors have also realised strong gains over relatively short hold periods as suburban markets have moved into favour (e.g. 80 George Street and 91 Phillip Street). Price and variable comparisons between transaction dates for these and other assets can be searched on the KF ValSal App where an option is provided to scroll between dates where an asset has sold previously between ). Suburban Overall ( ) Sydney Suburban Office Yields - Knight Frank Valuations Church St, Parra Epping Rd, Macq Prk 20 Smith St, Parra 10 year average - 8.6% 2 & 4-6 Cavill Ave, Ashfield Wentworth St, Parra 15 Talavera Macq Park 20 Charles St, Parra 1-3 Fitzwilliam St, Parra 110 Christie, St Leonards 100 Christie St, St Leonards 9 Waterloo Rd, Macq Prk 3 Figtree Dr, SOP 21 Solent Cct, Norwest 12 Butler Rd, Hurstville 2 Raw St, Strathfield 87 Marsden St, Parra 80 George St, Parra 2-14 Elsie St, Burwood Bridge St, Epping 15 Bourke Rd, Mascot 182 Blues Point Rd, McMahons Pt 18 Smith St, Parra 91 Phillip St, Parra Dawn Fraser Ave, Olym Park 8 Australia Ave, Olym Prk 3 Horwood Pl, Parra Space 207, St Leonards 67 Albert Ave, Chatswood Woniora Rd, Hurstville 3 Byfield St, Macq Prk 72 Christie St, St Leonards 203 Coward St, Mascot Octagon, Parra 815 Pac Hwy, Chatswood 9&12 Waterloo Rd, Nth Ryde 25 Smith St, Parra 2-6 Station St, Penrith 15 Talavera Rd, Nth Ryde 1-3 Fitzwilliam St, Parra Anzac Pde, Kensington 78 Waterloo Rd, Macq Park 80 George St, Parra 207 Pac Hwy, St Leonards 9 George St, Parra 132 Marsden St, Parra ATP, Eveleigh 15 Bourke Rd, Mascot Boral HQ, Greystanes 20 Rodborough Rd, Frenchs Forest 2-14 Elsie St, Burwood 1 Charles St, Parra 924 Pac Hwy, St Leonards 110 George St, Parra 43 Bridge St, Hurstville 110 George St, Parra 4-16 Montgomery St, Kogarah 821 Pac Hwy, Chatswood 1 Smith St, Parra Jul-02 Jul-03 Jun-04 Jun-05 Jun-06 Jun-07 Jun-08 Jun-09 Jun-10 Jun-11 Jun-12 Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-15 Note: This chart does not include every suburban sale only representative trend sales 13 year 8.6% +/-0.85% (+/-85 basis point around average reflecting a band of 7.75%-9.45%) Current Yield Range v 10 year average (trading above or below) Trading within Standard Deviation? -0.5% Yes The wider suburban market (including secondary markets such as Burwood, Norwest, etc.) is difficult to analyse given that yields have a wider scatterplot with wide variations due to location and quality (i.e. analysis includes prime and secondary assets), particularly in poorer investment markets where purchasers are more discerning and particularly penalise anything non-core. However, typical of many markets, the transactions tend to funnel into a tighter trading band when conditions improve. The suburban market is trading within its standard deviation, however, at present is subject to strong compression and is trading below its long term average.

8 Whilst the 10 year average yield of 8.6% is higher than secondary in the Sydney CBD of 7.5% (which would be expected), the analysed standard deviation is similar at +/-0.85%. This would seem counter-intuitive given the characteristics of the wider suburban market. However, this is considered partly due to the fact that in the last down-cycle, the suburban market re-rated to a much higher yield above its average (up to 2.0% higher), but also began to demonstrate yield compression earlier than say the secondary CBD market. It could be concluded that yields of 10%- 10.5% for suburban assets over may have been considered distressed sales and when the market recognised the relative under-value (or that the market had found its true bottom), purchaser activity improved and a more reasonable level of pricing was found. This demonstrates the favourable cyclical buying opportunities in these markets. Overall, with the last cycle, the suburban market experienced a similar re-rating on the upside as it did on the downside (up to 200 basis points). Therefore, despite the simple standard deviation measure being similar to secondary stock within the Sydney CBD, there remains greater risk on the downside, a potential to over-correct, followed by earlier moves in compression when value is recognised. As such, the standard deviation measure may be a little misleading. How does this compare with previous cycles? Convergence? By providing analysis which indicates that yields across various markets are now pushing the limits or are beyond a historical standard deviation, or are nearing 2007 levels (e.g. the Premium CBD market), does not necessarily imply the market is now at or approaching peak levels for this cycle. Every cycle have different catalysts and drivers which make them distinct. It is not the purpose of this paper to analyse the different drivers in this cycle, merely provide some simple context as to current and historical trends. The paper is not intended as a forecasting exercise. There are much wider factors at play which are distinctly different from the last cycle and will determine where the market moves. For instance, comparison between the 2006/2007 and today would indicate widely different conditions i.e. low interest rates versus high interest rates; low rental growth versus higher rental growth, etc. However, in analysing shorter term expectations of where value may lie and/or determining where pricing risk may be higher, this historical trend analysis can be of interest. Whilst we are not attempting to forecast, it is considered that analysis of convergence in yields between grades can provide some further insight and historical context as to potential near term yield trend expectations. As was seen over the months leading into late 2007, yields in the Sydney CBD converged to the extent that there was limited margin apparent between prime and secondary stock. When we say apparent, there were few benchmark prime and premium transactions in the market at this point to measure the true margin. So whilst secondary transactions were indicating yields of close to 5.5% in late 2007, it was also expected that were a prime/premium asset sold in 2007, that levels of sub-5.0% may have been tested, albeit there were no sales to actually benchmark this at the time. Nevertheless, regardless of what levels may have been tested were a premium asset sold at this time, convergence of yields over the period (as noted by the graph below) was still clearly apparent.

9 Mar-04 Jul-04 Nov-04 Mar-05 Jul-05 Nov-05 Mar-06 Jul-06 Nov-06 Mar-07 Jul-07 Nov-07 Mar-08 Jul-08 Nov-08 Mar-09 Jul-09 Nov-09 Mar-10 Jul-10 Nov-10 Mar-11 Jul-11 Nov-11 Mar-12 Jul-12 Nov-12 Mar-13 Jul-13 Nov-13 Mar-14 Jul-14 Nov-14 Mar-15 Jul-15 Knight Frank Valuations Historical Yield Trends - Prime v Secondary (Sydney CBD & Suburban) - Knight Frank Valuations 10.00% 9.00% 8.6% 8.00% 7.5% 7.00% 6.00% 6.7% 5.00% 4.00% Prime (Premium & A) Secondary 10 year average - Prime 10 yr average - Secondary 10 yr average - Suburban Suburban The above chart reflects general yield trends based upon representative benchmark transactions within the CBD as is not meant to represent exact yield levels In essence, the convergence of yields over was considered to reflect a number of factors, including, the absence of prime purchasing opportunities, the strong total return market and the strong appetite of wholesale funds. Of course there was also the weight of capital, a common feature between then and now. However, regardless of some of the differing conditions which may prevail in the current market versus 2006/07, what yield convergence between grades indicates is an increased appetite for risk and when convergence becomes strong (i.e. limited margin between prime and secondary), it could be implied that the market is at greater risk of reaching a peak. At present we are seeing the earlier signs of convergence gaining momentum, namely from compression in the secondary market. However, not to a level that is anywhere near the 2007 peak, particularly when considering secondary yields are still considered to be trading within their standard deviation and are a long way above 2007 levels. Therefore, whilst yields for premium stock may be at or approaching 2007 levels, significant convergence with other grades (A-grade and secondary) is yet to occur with the recent IPG sale actually ensuring that the margins between prime and secondary remain intact. Therefore, based simply upon yield convergence between grades as a lone determinant of market trends rather than solely upon comparison to previous historical peaks, the analysis indicates that the yield relativities at present are closer to those reflected within So does that imply we are within months from a peak and correction? Not at all, as cycles always have different catalysts and drivers. It would however imply that if the period of were to repeat itself via similar convergence, yield compression is likely to be strongest in the shorter term within the A-grade and secondary markets.

10 We trust this trend analysis provides some greater relative context around the current market with regard to yields. Historical data relating to individual sales noted on the graphs within; data on re-sales of assets over the period; current/pending sales and our historical 6 monthly reports dating back to 2007, can be obtained from the KF ValSal App within the App store, the superior version of which is adapted for ipad. The App also includes locality search functions across Australia, mapping, favourites and send to a friend function. This report is available on the KF ValSal App. The App also contains analysis of individual commercial sales in the market in Australia which can provide further context on the metrics noted within. The above information is purely for the purpose of a broad guide and whilst we understand the facts to be generally reliable we are unable to guarantee their accuracy. The information contained within may be confidential and must not be reproduced or circulated without the written consent of Knight Frank Valuations. Sydney, North Sydney & Metropolitan Valuations Team David Castles National Sydney Adam Elias Divisional Sydney Tim Miles Divisional Sydney Lachlan Graham Divisional North Sydney Matt Lucas Associate North Sydney James Burney Associate Sydney Interstate Commercial Team Michael Schuh Melbourne Joe Perillo Joint Managing Melbourne Peter Zischke Brisbane Steven Flannery Canberra Marc Crowe Perth Nick Bell Adelaide