2017 EDITION 2 ADELAIDE CAPITAL CITY REVIEW ADELAIDE

Transcription

1 2017 EDITION 2 ADELAIDE ADELAIDE CAPITAL CITY REVIEW 2017 EDITION 2

2 AT A GLANCE THERE ARE APPROXIMATELY 24,388 PROPERTIES WERE LISTED FOR SALE IN GREATER ADELAIDE IN THE 12 MONTHS TO JUNE ,182 1,907 2,505 2,242 2,646 2, ADELAIDE JAN 2017 FEB 2017 MAR 2017 APR 2017 MAY 2017 # DWELLING SALES JUN 2017 Houses spend an average of 46 days on the market, Units 53 days. ADELAIDE S LONG TERM GROWTH RATE IS 8.37% PER ANNUM COMPOUNDED FOR HOUSES. However, the last 7 years growth per annum compounded has been 2.28%. % 8.37 $5.30 B PROPOSED INFRASTRUCTURE SPENDING FOR MAJOR PROJECTS IN ADELAIDE IN 2017 IS APPROXIMATELY $5.3 BILLION for public and $4.6 billion for private projects. THE CURRENT UNEMPLOYMENT RATE IN ADELAIDE IS 6.2% which is above the current national rate of 5.6%. SA s underemployment rate is currently at 10.5%, a slight downward trend over the last 3 years. THE POPULATION OFGREATER ADELAIDE IS CURRENTLY JUST UNDER 1.3 MILLION AND MAKES UP APPROXIMATELY 5.3% OF THE NATION S TOTAL POPULATION. IN ADELAIDE GAINED 9,942 PEOPLE FROM NET OVERSEAS MIGRATIOIN M 1.0M 1.5M 2.0M 2

3 CONTENTS Key Indicator 1 THE ECONOMY Key Indicator 4 SUPPLY FACTORS GRP V. Median Price Neutral Dwelling Approvals V. Population % Change Slightly Negative State Budget Positive Bedroom Approvals V. Population Change Slightly Negative Greater Adelaide Industry Value as % of GRP Positive SA Dwellings Under Construction Neutral Mortgage Arrears Neutral Vacancy Rate V. Rent Slightly Negative Stock on Market V. Days on Market Positive Key Indicator 2 AFFORDABILITY Affordability Index V. Price Movement Income Growth V. Price Movement Rent Growth V. Price Movement FHBs as % of Population Key Indicator 3 DEMAND FACTORS Positive Slightly Positive Neutral Slightly Negative Key Indicator 5 INVESTMENT VALUE Current Investment Value - Per Capital City Capital City Long Term Price Comparison Long Term Trends Adelaide House V. Unit Price Comparison Adelaide V. Sydney Price Movement Positive Positive Slightly Positive Neutral Positive Population Slightly Negative SA Population Movement Type Slightly Negative Population Pyramid Neutral Unemployment Rate Slightly Positive Underemployment Rate Slightly Negative Infrastructure Spending Slightly Positive Infrastructure Spending Per Person Slightly Positive Foreign Investment Negative Airport Arrivals Slightly Positive 3

4 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY THE INDICATORS ARE SUGGESTING THAT ADELAIDE IS A RISING MARKET. KEY INDICATOR 1 THE ECONOMY SLIGHTLY POSITIVE The economic situation is slightly positive, with moderate year on year increases in gross regional product. The government has fought its way out of a $1B deficit and the state has moved away from a manufacturing base, into one of the most diversified capital cities in Australia. The large infrastructure spend in both the private and public sector should make this economy fairly robust over the coming years. KEY INDICATOR 2 AFFORDABILITY SLIGHTLY POSITIVE The Affordability Index in Adelaide is sitting below where it was in 2003 when prices surged 29.4% in that year. In that time we ve also had income growth outpace price growth. The combination of these two statistics indicate that this market is affordable. The only thing of concern is that First Home Buyer (FHB) activity is relatively low, but this is consistent with the national trend. KEY INDICATOR 3 DEMAND SLIGHTLY POSITIVE Demand indicators for Adelaide are good with the population growing at 0.76% in the 2016 calendar year. Strong public and private infrastructure of over $7,000 per person and falling unemployment should see a slight improvement on this figure in the coming years. KEY INDICATOR 4 SUPPLY SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE Unit approvals have been on an upward trend since 2013 while house approvals have been relatively stagnant. On a bedroom level, Adelaide is likely to move into an oversupply pending the strength of population growth over the coming years. This oversupply should be contained to the unit market. Currently vacancy rates are 3.4% which indicates this market is slightly oversupplied. KEY INDICATOR 5 INVESTMENT VALUE POSITIVE Adelaide is arguably showing the most investment value of any of the five major capital cities as it has been underperforming its long-term average for 10 years and in the last 5 years has only managed to grow at 3.97% compounded per annum. When comparing the pricing relationships of Adelaide and the other major cities it shows value on every comparison. 4

5 OUR VIEW OF THE ADELAIDE PROPERTY MARKET SYDNEY AVOID LIMITED VALUE The market is showing some value opportunities. Overall, most fundamental indicators support growth. BRISBANE LIMITED VALUE AVOID CAUTION The market is showing no value and price falls in the short term are possible. There are no fundamentals that support price growth in the short term. CAUTION The market is close to being overvalued and/or oversupplied. We see minimal growth over the short- to medium-term. LOWER VALUE SUBURBS ADELAIDE HIGHEST VALUE SUBURBS VALUE VALUE The market is showing good value on most properties. Many fundamental indicators exist which support strong growth. For more information on the Adelaide market, including individual property and suburb selections, call to speak to one of our professional property advisors on

6 GROSS REGIONAL PRODUCT V. MEDIAN PRICE This graph demonstrates the relationship between Gross Regional Product and the median price. Since 2010 there has been a 17% increase in prices and a 9.3% growth in GRP. This is a fairly neutral indicator for the market. $600,000 $90,000 $500,000 $400,000 $52,782 $55,316 $58,649 $61,660 $63,623 $63,925 $66,241 $312,000 $69,015 $370,000 $70,620 $360,000 $72,556 $73,898 $74,115 $75,838 $76,065 $410,500 $405,000 $395,000 $400,000 $420,000 $79,365 $77,630 $480,000 $466,600 $450,000 $80,000 $70,000 $60,000 $50,000 NEUTRAL $300,000 $250,000 $275,000 $287,000 $40,000 $220,000 $200,000 $100,000 $148,400 $170,000 $30,000 $20,000 $10,000 $- $ Greater Adelaide GRP ($ Mil) Median Price 6

7 STATE BUDGET The South Australian government has been operating in a surplus since This was a dramatic improvement from where the state government was running in deficit of approximately $1billion per annum. Forecast budgeting is indicating this surplus will continue until at least We see this as a positive indicator for the market. $600,000,000 $400,000,000 $200,000,000 $202,000,000 $209,000,000 $464,000,000 $187,000,000 $258,000,000 $254,000,000 $415,000,000 $464,000,000 $466,000,000 $ POSITIVE -$200,000,000 -$400,000,000 $233,000,000 -$53,000,000 -$258,000,000 $279,000,000 -$600,000,000 -$800,000,000 -$1,000,000,000 -$1,200,000,000 $948,000,000 $1,071,000,000 7

8 GREATER ADELAIDE INDUSTRY VALUE AS % OF GSP Currently the most dominant industry is health care and social assistance, which represents 12.1% of GSP. Ten years ago manufacturing was the highest industry sector representing 14% of GSP and now it only represents 8.1% indicating that this city is adjusting well to globalization. Other Services, 2.8% Arts and Recreation Services, 1.1% Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing, 1.5% Mining, 0.7% Manufacturing, 8.1% Health Care and Social Assistance, 12.1% Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services, 4.0% Education and Training, 6.4% Construction, 8.2% POSITIVE Public Administration and Safety, 8.6% Wholesale Trade, 5.2% Retail Trade, 6% Administrative and Support Services, 3.7% Accommodation and Food Services, 2.6% Professional, Scientific and Technical Services, 7.1% Transport, Postal and Warehousing, 6.1% Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services, 3.0% Information Media and Telecommunications, 3.0% Financial and Insurance Services, 9.9% 8

9 SOUTH AUSTRALIAN MORTGAGE ARREARS This graph shows the percentage of mortgages that are 30+ days in arrears in South Australia from 2000 to June 2017, supplied by Standard and Poor s Global Ratings. Arrears in South Australia are currently at 1.51%, above the current national level of 1.21% but a decline from all time highs in 2016 of 1.81%. 2.5% 1.8% 1.6% 1.4% 1.2% 1.51% NEUTRAL 1.0% 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0% Jan 2000 Jun 2000 Nov 2000 Apr 2001 Sep 2001 Feb 2002 Jul 2002 Dec 2002 May 2003 Oct 2003 Mar 2004 Aug 2004 Jan 2005 Jun 2005 Nov 2005 Apr 2006 Sep 2006 Feb 2007 Jul 2007 Dec 2007 May 2008 Oct 2008 Mar 2009 Aug 2009 Jan 2010 Jun 2010 Nov 2010 Apr 2011 Sep 2011 Feb 2012 Jul 2012 Dec 2012 May 2013 Oct 2013 Mar 2014 Aug 2014 Jan 2015 Jun 2015 Nov 2015 Apr 2016 Sep 2016 Feb

10 AFFORDABILITY INDEX V. PRICE MOVEMENT This graph displays the relationship between affordability and its impact on house price movements. 60% 35% 50% 26.41% 50% 30% 44% 42% 43% 25% 41% 40% 39% 39% 20.25% 38% 35% 18.59% 20% 34% 33% 33% 34% 32% 31% 30% 31% 30% 14.03% 28% 28% 15% 27% 14.56% 26% 26% 26% 26% 13.64% 25% 25% 24% 23% 21% 9.93% 10% 8.00% 8.42% 10.00% 20% 18% 18% 19% 18% 8.71% 8.87% 6.36% 10% 4.85% 4.82% 4.70% 5% 3.27% 3.05% 5.00% 4.36% 4.45% 2.04% 3.08% 3.23% 1.27% 0.79% 0.13% -1.06% 0% -019% -1.34% -2.25% -2.70% -2.47% 0% -5% POSITIVE Gross Affordability Index Median Price Movement The Affordability Index is calculated using the median price, median income, an LVR of 80% and the current interest rate. Calculated back to the 1980 s, our index is a measure of average mortgage repayments versus the average income. A low Affordability Index of between 20% and 25% will almost always see price rises. An Affordability Index of around 40% indicates that properties have become unaffordable, almost certainly resulting in a pullback of prices. Currently Adelaide s Affordability Index is hovering around the 26% mark, making this market affordable and very attractive for first homebuyers. This is a key positive for future price rises in Adelaide. 10

11 INCOME GROWTH V. PRICE MOVEMENT This graph displays a sixteen year price history compared with sixteen years of the average income. As can be seen in Adelaide the relationship between prices and income has been relatively consistent. $600,000 $1,600 $1,446 $1,448 $500,000 $400,000 $882 $931 $978 $1,019 $1,073 $1,122 $370,000 $360,000 $1,376 $1,353 $1,301 $1,253 $480,000 $466,600 $1,203 $446,700 $1,153 $420,000 $410,000 $405,000 $395,000 $400,000 $312,000 $802 $814 $782 $300,000 $287,000 $800 $275,000 $250,000 $1,400 $1,200 $1,000 SLIGHTLY POSITIVE $200,000 $170,000 $148,000 $220,000 $600 $400 $100,000 $200 $- $ Median House Price Median Weekly Income However, since 2010, income is up approximately 26%, while price growth during the same period is up around 17%. The fact that income growth has outpaced price growth has resulted in this market being more affordable. This is a slightly positive indicator for future price rises. 11

12 RENT GROWTH V. PRICE MOVEMENT This graph displays a sixteen year price history and its relationship with rents. $400 $600,000 $350 $300 $250 $220 $240 $348 $350 $335 $335 $320 $320 $320 $480,000 $466,600 $300 $290 $446,700 $270 $410,500 $405,000 $420,000 $400,000 $395,000 $250 $370,000 $360,000 $500,000 $400,000 NEUTRAL $200 $185 $185 $190 $312,000 $200 $287,000 $275,000 $300,000 $150 $150 $155 $160 $160 $170,000 $220,000 $250,000 $200,000 $100 $50 $135,000 $148,400 $114,900 $120,300$120,300 $100,000 $- $ Median Price Median Rent In Adelaide the relationship between prices and rents has been relatively consistent, with marginal outperformance of price growth versus rental growth. This is a fairly neutral indicator for future price movements in Adelaide. 12

13 FHBS AS A % OF POPULATION This graphs shows the percentage of first home buyers, relative to the state population. 0.90% 14, % 0.77% 12, % 0.63% 0.64% 10, % 0.50% 0.40% 0.56% 0.54% 0.59% 0.49% 0.46% 0.46% 0.43% 0.37% 0.52% 0.50% 0.50% 0.50% 0.47% 0.42% 0.39% 0.35% 0.35% 0.45% 0.39% 8,000 6,000 SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE 0.30% 0.30% 0.29% 0.30% 0.30% 4, % 0.10% 2, % FHB Numbers (WA) FHB as % of Population As can be seen in the graph there are two notable spikes. The first occurring in 2000/2001 which coincides with the introduction of the First Home Owners Grant and the second coincided with the doubling of the first home buyer grant in 2008/2009. We are now seeing close to record low level of first home buyers, this is common across most capital cities. 13

14 CHANGE IN POPULATION This graph shows the change in the population growth rate from 2007 to While population growth has remained positive in both Adelaide and South Australia it has been on a downward trend for the last decade and below the national rate of growth. This is a slightly negative indicator for the housing market. 2.50% 2.19% 2.00% 1.88% 1.82% 1.84% 1.50% 1.47% 1.40% 1.60% 1.65% 1.50% 1.44% 1.55% SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE 1.26% 1.28% 1.28% 1.23% 1.30% 1.09% 1.00% 1.10% 0.90% 0.93% 0.94% 1.00% 0.90% 0.86% 0.89% 0.87% 0.89% 0.89% 0.76% 0.50% 0.60% 0% Adelaide South Australia Australia 14

15 TYPE OF POPULATION GROWTH As can be seen on the graph there is a continuation of high levels of natural births and Net Overseas Migration (NOM), but negative levels of Net Interstate Migration (NIM) for South Australia. Net overseas migration was the major component of population change in SA for 2016 and we see this as positive for short-term price rises in Adelaide. However, the concerning trend displayed for NIM is counterbalancing the strong NOM. Overall we see this as slightly negative for price movements in Adelaide. 20,000 15,000 10,000 SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE 5, ,000-20,000 Natural Increase NOM NIM 15

16 POPULATION PYRAMID The population pyramid demonstrates the breakdown of the different ages and sex percentage of the population. Ideally, the age segments from 30 to 40 would be larger than the current dominant consumer base for 40 to 50. For Greater Adelaide this is a neutral indicator with age brackets between 1 and 69 at relatively similar percentages. Age in years Males Females NEUTRAL % of males % of females Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, Census of Population and Housing, 2016 (Usual residence data) Compiled and presented in profile.id by.id, the population experts. City of Adelaide Greater Adelaide 16

17 UNEMPLOYMENT Between 2012 to 2015 we saw the unemployment rate rise from 5.6% to 7.1% with reversal of that trend in late The current unemployment rate is 6.2%, slightly higher than the national rate of 5.6%. The recent downward trend is creating buyer confidence and is slightly positive for price movement. 14% 12.4% 12% 11.3% 11.3% 10.9% 10.7% 10% 8% 8.3% 8.9% 9.2% 8.3% 8.5% 9.8% 9.8% 8.5% 7.5% 7.3% 7.4% 7.7% SLIGHTLY POSITIVE 6% 6.6% 6.7% 6.9% 6.6% 6.3% 6.1% 5.9% 5.9% 5.8% 5.6% 5.5% 5.5% 5.3% 5.4% 4.9% 6.2% 4% 2% 0% Greater Adelaide 6.2% South Australia 6.1% 17

18 UNDEREMPLOYMENT This graph shows the relationship between the South Australian and National underemployment rate from Underemployment in South Australia has trended slightly down since an all-time high of 10.7% in Whilst the trend is fairly neutral, the high level of underemployment is somewhat concerning for the market. 12.0% % 8.0% SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE 6.0% % % 0.0% South Australia Australia 18

19 INFRASTRUCTURE SPENDING Public infrastructure spending in Adelaide peaked in 2016, an increase of 63% from the 2014 calendar year. $5.3 billion in public spending and $4.6 billion in private spending is allocated for this year and although a drop from 2016, still a substantial spend per person which we will look at in the next graph. Logically, this should have a positive effect on job creation, population growth, wage growth and confidence. $7,000,000,000 $6,000,000,000 $6,032,710,958 $5,603,204,167 $5,301,083,333 $5,157,083,333 $5,000,000,000 $4,666,412,196 $4,000,000,000 $3,666,184,917 $4,257,078,571 SLIGHTLY POSITIVE $3,000,000,000 $2,416,638,333 $2,000,000,000 $1,438,887,500 $1,486,745,238 $1,000,000,000 $896,661,905 $370,687,500 $ Public Private In our calculation, we have only reviewed federal and state infrastructure programs down to $10m. We have apportioned the cost of the program into an annual spend using the straight-line method for simplicity. 19

20 INFRASTRUCTURE SPENDING PER PERSON Infrastructure spending peaked in 2016 at approximately $8884 per person taking into consideration both public and private projects worth $10 million or more. Although not as high, 2017 still has an above average spend per person at approximately $7610. The national average spend per person is $3000. This is slightly positive for the market. $10,000 $14,000,000,000 $9,000 $8,884 $12,000,000,000 $8,000 $7,610 $7,000 $10,000,000,000 SLIGHTLY POSITIVE $6,000 $8,000,000,000 $5,000 $5,072 $4,000 $3,935 $6,000,000,000 $3,000 $2,970 $3,089 $4,000,000,000 $2,000 $2,000,000,000 $1,000 $- $

21 FOREIGN INVESTMENT APPROVALS - NEW V. ESTABLISHED PROPERTY This graph shows foreign investment approvals into South Australia s residential market since The orange bars show the investment in off-plan and for development properties and the red bars show investment into established properties. This dramatic increase in approvals for new developments is a negative for the market, as it can create over speculation and over building. $900,000,000 $800,000,000 $700,000,000 $600,000,000 NEGATIVE $500,000,000 $400,000,000 $300,000,000 $200,000,000 $100,000,000 $ Established For Development 21

22 AIRPORT ARRIVALS This graph shows the numbers for International and Domestic arrivals into Adelaide airport from Arrivals have been on a long term upward trend but relatively stagnant since This is a slightly positive indicator for the market. 4,000,000 3,500,000 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000, , ,880 55, ,011 70,273 1,004,223 71,765 1,082,379 72, ,156 75,625 1,050,530 92,869 1,312,333 96,960 1,363, ,932 1,452, ,290 1,578, ,407 1,704, ,676 1,777, ,704 1,815, ,895 1,893, ,689 1,925, ,513 1,983, ,535 2,088, ,361 1,996, ,448 2,188, ,577 2,415, ,055 2,621, ,571 2,793, ,029 2,946, ,751 3,127, ,375 3,164, ,754 3,374, ,337 3,220, ,137 3,208, ,842 SLIGHTLY POSITIVE ,285, ,878 3,364,494 3,402,848 3,502,850 3,443, , , , ,716 Domestic International 22

23 DWELLING APPROVALS V. POPULATION This graph show s the relationship between population growth in Adelaide and Greater Adelaide dwelling approvals. As can be seen in the graph this market is at risk of building into an oversupply. 8, % 7, % 1.28% 6,993 6,000 5,000 5,518 5,729 6,469 6,760 6, % 5, % 5, % 6, % 5, % 6,442 6,166 SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE 4, % 3,000 2,000 1, , % 3,445 3,787 3,853 2,161 2,699 2,092 2,752 2,211 2,728 2,367 2,744 3,016 1,584 Houses Other Dwellings Population % Change 23

24 BEDROOM APPROVALS V. POPULATION CHANGE The following graph shows the relationship between the amount of bedrooms being approved, assuming 80% commencements and the average household size of 2.41 people versus the change in the amount of people in Greater Adelaide. The number of bedrooms is higher than the increase in people and as such this market is at risk of building into an oversupply. 25,000 20,000 15,000 16,249 16,558 14,686 18,339 15,041 17,507 17,196 18,742 15,468 14,632 13,521 15,939 17,803 18,017 19,722 19,317 SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE 12,626 10,000 11,044 11,842 11,787 11,474 9,711 5, Approvals (80% of x 2.41) Population Change # 24

25 SOUTH AUSTRALIAN DWELLINGS UNDER CONSTRUCTION House commencements in South Australia peaked in , falling dramatically until 2012 and on an upward trend until Unit commencements were fairly flat between 2005 and 2015, spiking in This tells a better story than dwelling approvals, as not all approvals are built, however, an oversupply is still possible, we see this as fairly neutral for the markets. 7,000 6,000 5,000 NEUTRAL 4,000 3,000 2,000 1, Houses Units 25

26 VACANCY RATE V. RENT This graph displays the relationship between rental growth and the vacancy rate since Vacancy rates have been on an upward trend since 2014 and in that time rents have only increased 4%. A 3% vacancy rate indicates a balanced market, and as the current vacancy rate is slightly above this, we see this as a slightly negative for the market. 4.5% $ % 3.9% $335 $335 $348 $350 $350 $320 $320 $ % $290 $ % 3.2% 3.3% 3.4% $ % 2.5% 2.8% $190 $200 $220 $240 $250 $ % 2.5% $250 $200 SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE 2.0% 1.5% 1.9% 1.8% 1.6% 1.5% 1.4% $ % 1.3% 1.1% $ % $50 0% $ Rent Vacancy Rate 26

27 STOCK ON MARKET V. DAYS ON MARKET This graph displays the average days on market and stock on market since 2008 and The average days on market has been on a downward trend since 2012 where it peaked at 77 days. Currently the average days on market is 47. Stock on market has fallen to 13,000 in August 2017, the lowest it s been in ten years. 20, ,700 18,500 18,450 18,600 18, ,000 15,900 16, ,000 12,000 14,000 13, , , POSITIVE , ,000 6, , , Stock on Market Avg Days on Market 27

28 CURRENT INVESTMENT VALUE This graph displays the median rental yield on a three-bedroom house and two bedroom unit in each of the five major capital cities. The graph indicates that, in comparison to the five major cities, Adelaide s market offers good investment value. 6% 5% 4.9% 5.1% 4.2% 4.1% 4% 3.8% 3.8% 3.8% 3.4% POSITIVE 3% 2.8% 2.8% 2% 1% 0% Brisbane Adelaide Perth Melbourne Sydney House Units 28

29 CAPITAL CITY LONG TERM PRICE COMPARISON This graph displays the pricing relationships between the five major capital cities in Australia. As can be seen in the graph, Adelaide s median house prices typically sits about 46% and 31% behind Sydney and Melbourne respectively. Currently Adelaide s median house price is 60% and 45% behind Sydney and Melbourne respectively. This disparity is due to price movements in Melbourne and Sydney over the period, versus relative price stagnation in Adelaide. History has shown that when prices rise sharply in the two major Australian capital cities, affordability issues create migration flows towards cheaper markets such as Adelaide and Brisbane. This puts upward pressure on prices and tends to stimulate the local economy. 0% Melbourne Sydney Brisbane Perth -10% -12% -8% -10% -8% POSITIVE -20% -30% -31% -40% -50% -45% -46% -60% -60% -70% Current Average 29

30 LONG TERM TRENDS The long-term trend for price growth in Adelaide since 1971 is 8.37% compounded per annum. While we don t expect this high compounding growth to continue in the decades ahead, it is a worthwhile exercise to compare this against recent price movements. Looking at the graph, it is clear that the 3, 5, 7 & 10 year compounded price movements are below trend. On that basis there is justification that the Adelaide market is showing signs of value. 9.00% 8.37% 8.00% 7.00% 6.00% SLIGHTLY POSITIVE 5.00% 4.40% 4.55% 4.00% 3.97% 3.00% 2.28% 2.00% 1.00% 0.00% LT 10Yr 7Yr 5Yr 3Yr 30

31 ADELAIDE UNIT V. HOUSE PRICE COMPARISON This graph shows the comparison between house and unit price movements since The price for units is currently 74% of houses, the average difference is 78%. This is a neutral indictor for future price growth. 120% $600, % $500, % 80% 81.41% 79.82% 79.32% 74.09% 72.89% 79.99% 75.73% 78.77% 76.01% 76.51% 74.64% 77.43% 74.73% 79.79% 77.98% 79.40% 78.21% 79.68% 77.99% 74.89%74.43% 73.65% $400,000 NEUTRAL 60% $300,000 40% $200,000 20% $100,000 0% $ Median Unit Price Median House Price % Difference 31

32 ADELAIDE VS. SYDNEY This graph shows a relationship between the Adelaide median and the Sydney median from Adelaide usually sits at approximately 55% of the Sydney median. It currently sits at 40% of the Sydney median. On this measure Adelaide is showing some value. 120% $1,400, % $1,200,000 83% $1,000,000 80% 78% 77% 62% 68% 65% 65% 62% 61% $800,000 POSITIVE 60% 40% 48% 59% 57% 57% 55% 53% 53% 51% 48% 44% 42% 40% 41% 38% 45% 42% 55% 52% 59% 58% 52% 43% 39% 40% $600,000 $400,000 20% $200,000 0% $ Sydney Median Adelaide Median % Difference (LT Avg 55%) 32

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