cremorne december quarter 2010 Powered by Ashton Rowe

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1 cremorne 29 december quarter 21 Powered by Ashton Rowe

2 IMPORTANT INFORMATION UPDATED!INFORMATION Information may be subject to change from time to time and updated information can be obtained at any time by contacting Ashton Rowe at DISCLAIMER Whilst this information has been carefully compiled, no warranty or promise as to its correctness is made or intended. The information outlined within this document also represents subjective interpretation by Ashton Rowe (ACN ) and should not be solely relied upon for investment decisions. Interested parties should undertake independent inquiries and investigations to satisfy themselves that any details herein are true and correct. No guarantee of forecasts are being made by Ashton Rowe about potential capital gains or losses. Past information about capital gains does not imply that such gains or growth will be made in the future. The material in this publication is copyright. This document cannot be reproduced without the express permission of Ashton Rowe. THIS!IS!NOT!FINANCIAL ADVICE. YOU SHOULD SEEK YOUR OWN INDEPENDENT!FINANCIAL ADVICE This report does not take into account the investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs of individuals. It is important that you read the entire document and any supplementary amendments in full before making any decisions. The product and pricing information contained within this document is based on price lists and third party information obtained throughout the course of our research. This information has been verified to the best of our ability, but Ashton Rowe accepts no responsibility for reliance on this information. This information has been prepared independently and at our own discretion. It is particularly important that you consider the risk factors that could affect the financial performance of the property. You should carefully consider these factors in light of your particular needs, objectives and financial circumstances (including financial and taxation issues) and seek professional advice from your own professional advisors. Date compiled 1 February 211. CONTENT!INTEGRITY While Ashton Rowe believes it is unlikely that the electronic version of the report will be tampered with or altered in any way, Ashton Rowe cannot give any absolute assurance that this will not occur. Any investor in doubt concerning the validity or integrity of an electronic copy of the report should immediately request a paper copy of the document directly from Ashton Rowe. Croll First National Ashton Rowe Pty Ltd 211 December Quarter (Cremorne) 1

3 CONTENTS CONTENTS SNAPSHOT 3 SECTION I LOCATION 4 SECTION II MARKET ANALYSIS 5 REAL ESTATE TRENDS 7 Croll First National Ashton Rowe Pty Ltd 211 December Quarter (Cremorne) 2

4 SNAPSHOT 29 - Cremorne SNAPSHOT ASHTON ROWE IS ONE OF AUSTRALIA S LEADING PROPERTY RESEARCH AND INVESTMENT FIRMS, SPECIALISING IN RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY. Our experienced research analysts have conducted extensive and objective research about the postcode 29 residential market (Cremorne and Cremorne Point) which is comprised of 3,173 houses and 1,249 units. 1 CAPITAL GROWTH 1 YEAR AVERAGE LAST 12 MONTHS* UNITS 5.5% 9.1% HOUSES 7.8% 15.7% *Median capital growth over the last 12 months Source: Ashton Rowe Research & Residex Suburb Report December 21 In the 12 months to December 21, 122 houses and 377 units have sold. 2 The 29 residential market has underperformed the greater Sydney market over the last three years on average by 2.8% per year for units and by an average of.9% per year for houses. The total rate of capital growth over the last three years was 1.6% (average 3.4% per annum) for units and 12.6% (average 4.% per annum) for houses while the average rate of growth over the last 1 years for units was 5.5% compared to 7.8% for houses. 3 RENTAL YIELD 1 YEAR AVERAGE LAST 12 MONTHS* UNITS 4.% 4.% HOUSES 2.8% 2.5% *Median rental yield over the last 12 months Source: Ashton Rowe Research & Residex Suburb Report December 21 The median rental yield for units over the last quarter in postcode 29 was 4.1% at the end of December 21, slightly above the 1 year average of 4.%. The median rental yield for houses over the last quarter was 2.8% at the end of December 21, on par with the 1 year average. 4 OUTLOOK Within the unit market, all segments whilst slightly undersupplied, are broadly in balance and Ashton Rowe does not forecast any significant price movements over the next quarter. The housing market offers a very mixed bag in comparison. A lack of competition between vendors as well as significant price pressures will push up prices in the 3 and 4 bedroom segments, whilst the premium end 5 bedroom segment is due for a correction downwards (although the small size of this segment can mean one sale can impact more heavily on median price). 1 Australian Bureau of Statistics 2 Ashton Rowe Research, RP Data and Price Finder 3 Ashton Rowe Research & Residex Suburb Report December 21 4 Ashton Rowe Research & Residex Suburb Report December 21 Croll First National Ashton Rowe Pty Ltd 211 December Quarter (Cremorne) 3

5 SECTION I SECTION I LOCATION Sydney The postcode of 29 is a mainly residential area consisting of low, medium and high density residential housing, affluent households and a commercial strip centred on Military Road. Part of the Lower North Shore region of Sydney it is located just 6km north of Sydney s CBD and is bordered by Mosman (east) and Neutral Bay (west). Postcode 29 is bisected by Military Road, the main arterial road linking North Sydney to the Northern Beaches. The area is also close to the Pacific Highway and Warringah Freeway, giving access south over the Sydney Harbour Bridge and north and west to surrounding regions of Sydney. The area well connected to Sydney s CBD, via mainly the frequent bus services. However, a ferry service does stop at the wharves in Old Cremorne and at Cremorne Point. An analysis of the jobs 1 held by the resident population of 29 showed that the three most popular occupation sectors were: - Professionals (3,3 persons or 41%) - Managers (1,517 persons or 21%) - Clerical and Administrative Workers (1,76 persons or 15%) In combination these three occupations accounted for 77% of the employed resident population. On closer analysis of the industries of which these occupations apply, the highest concentration is in Financial and Investment Services (6.2%), followed by Legal and Accounting Services (6.%), and Banking (4.%). With the majority of the workforce in white-collar professions, the postcode of 29 could be susceptible to economic shocks affecting CBD-based businesses, however, as no one profession dominates, it is well diversified across industries and has very little exposure to industry specific shocks. SUMMARY - Prestigious suburb on the Lower North Shore - 6km north of Sydney s CBD - Excellent transport links including frequent bus services and ferries - Blue-chip suburb appealing to investors and owner occupiers 1 Australian Bureau of Statistics Croll First National Ashton Rowe Pty Ltd 211 December Quarter (Cremorne) 4

6 SECTION II SECTION II MARKET ANALYSIS Ashton Rowe s market analysis is broken down into two parts. First, an assessment of the overall demographics of the postcode (compared to the wider Sydney metropolitan and Australia). Secondly, an analysis of the types of units and houses sold in postcode 29 (Cremorne). KEY DEMOGRAPHICS 29 SYDNEY AUSTRALIA MEDIAN AGE AVERAGE HOUSEHOLD SIZE MEDIAN WEEKLY INCOME $1,793 $1,154 $1,27 UNEMPLOYMENT 2.6% 5.3% 5.2% OWNER OCCUPIED 46.9% 61.2% 64.8% RENTED 39.6% 29.7% 27.2% STATE HOUSING AUTHORITY 1.1% 15.3% 14.9% Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics POPULATION CHANGES (POSTCODE 29) CENSUS 21 CENSUS 26 CHANGE UNDER 15 YEARS 11.3% 12.5% 1.2% YEARS 75.2% 73.7% -1.5% 65 YEARS AND OVER 13.5% 13.8%.3% Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics The postcode of 29 is an affluent area of Sydney with a median weekly household income approximately 55% above that of the Sydney metropolitan area. The area has a healthy owner occupier to rental property ratio. With very low unemployment and state housing, the suburb is predominantly made up of relatively small households compared to its neighbours and the data would suggest an established and well cared for suburb, well suited to owner occupiers and risk averse investors. Croll First National Ashton Rowe Pty Ltd 211 December Quarter (Cremorne) 5

7 SECTION II SECTION II MARKET ANALYSIS WHICH TYPE OF UNITS ARE SELLING Last Quarter Entire Period 25% 21% 24% 2% 22% 54% 51% 1 Beds 2 Beds 3 Beds 4 Beds 5+ Beds Note: Segments under 5% are not labelled WHICH TYPE OF HOUSES ARE SELLING Last Quarter Entire Period 29% 6% 29% 15% 12% 29% 43% 35% 1 Beds 2 Beds 3 Beds 4 Beds 5+ Beds Note: Segments under 5% are not labelled Croll First National Ashton Rowe Pty Ltd 211 December Quarter (Cremorne) 6

8 REAL ESTATE TRENDS HEALTH, LIQUIDITY AND SENTIMENT The percentage of dwellings sold under the hammer or prior to auction compared to the total number listed for auction is 76% for units and 71% for houses 1. Average days on market is 45 for units and 6 for houses. This indicates that the local unit and housing markets are displaying medium levels of liquidity (for auction sales) and demand. UNITS HOUSES SYDNEY AUCTION CLEARANCE RATE 76% 71% 59% DAYS ON MARKET 45 6 N/A SNR = Statistically Not Reliable HIGHEST SALES PRICES UNITS* ADDRESS BEDS BATH PRICE 5/4 Milson Rd, Cremorne Point 3 2 $3,7, 2/54 Tobruk Av, Cremorne 4 3 $3,175, 7/88 Milson Rd, Cremorne Point 3 2 $2,575, 27/16 Young St, Cremorne 2 1 $2,35, 11/37 Milson Rd, Cremorne Point 3 2 $2,225, * 12 Months to December 21 HIGHEST SALES PRICES HOUSES* ADDRESS BEDS BATH PRICE 22 Wonga Rd, Cremorne 4 3 $5,66, 6 Wonga Rd, Cremorne 5 4 $5,3, 1/55 Kareela Rd, Cremorne Point 4 3 $3,9, 4 Bromley Av, Cremorne Point 4 3 $3,4, 2 Montague Rd, Cremorne 4 2 $2,86, * 12 Months to December 21 1 Ashton Rowe Research, RP Data and Price Finder Croll First National Ashton Rowe Pty Ltd 211 December Quarter (Cremorne) 7

9 REAL ESTATE TRENDS Median Sale Price ($m) Volume Sold 1 BEDROOM UNITS In the last quarter, supply to market decreased 18%, taking it 27% below the 7 year average. Median price in this segment stayed constant over the quarter at $4k. Given these factors and key fundamentals, Ashton Rowe expect prices to remain at current levels over the next quarter. Q1 24 Q4 24 Q3 25 Q2 26 Q1 27 Q4 27 Q3 28 Q2 29 Q1 21 Q4 21 Median Sale Price ($m) Volume Sold 2 BEDROOM UNITS In the last quarter, supply to market dropped 23%, taking it 19% below the 7 year average. Median price in this segment increased by 8% over the quarter to a record $65k. Given these factors and key fundamentals, Ashton Rowe expect prices to hover at current levels in the short term. Q1 24 Q4 24 Q3 25 Q2 26 Q1 27 Q4 27 Q3 28 Q2 29 Q1 21 Q4 21 Median Sale Price ($m) Volume Sold 3 BEDROOM UNITS In the last quarter, supply to market increased 17%, taking it 21% below the 7 year average. Median price in this segment increased slightly over the quarter to $883k. Given these factors and key fundamentals, Ashton Rowe expect prices to remain at current levels in the short term. Q1 24 Q4 24 Q3 25 Q2 26 Q1 27 Q4 27 Q3 28 Q2 29 Q1 21 Q4 21 Croll First National Ashton Rowe Pty Ltd 211 December Quarter (Cremorne) 8

10 REAL ESTATE TRENDS Median Sale Price ($m) Volume Sold 3 BEDROOM HOUSES In the last quarter, supply to market dropped 69%, taking it 72% below the 7 year average. Median price softened significantly over the quarter. Given these factors and key fundamentals, Ashton Rowe expect prices to increase in the short term. Q1 24 Q4 24 Q3 25 Q2 26 Q1 27 Q4 27 Q3 28 Q2 29 Q1 21 Q4 21 Median Sale Price ($m) Volume Sold 4 BEDROOM HOUSES In the last quarter, supply to market decreased 54%, taking it 49% below the 7 year average. Median price in this segment also dropped significantly over the quarter to $1.5M. Given these factors and key fundamentals, Ashton Rowe expect prices in this segment to increase slightly in the short term. Q1 24 Q4 24 Q3 25 Q2 26 Q1 27 Q4 27 Q3 28 Q2 29 Q1 21 Q4 21 Median Sale Price ($m) Volume Sold 5 BEDROOM HOUSES In the last quarter, supply to market increased 25%, still 21% below the 7 year average. Median price in this volatile has actually remained relatively constant over the last 12 months at $5.275M. Given these factors and key fundamentals, Ashton Rowe expect price to soften over the next quarter. Q1 24 Q4 24 Q3 25 Q2 26 Q1 27 Q4 27 Q3 28 Q2 29 Q1 21 Q4 21 Croll First National Ashton Rowe Pty Ltd 211 December Quarter (Cremorne) 9

11 REAL ESTATE TRENDS CAPITAL GROWTH The 29 residential market has underperformed the greater Sydney market over the last three years on average by 2.8% per year for units and by an average of.9% per year for houses. The total rate of capital growth over the last three years was 1.6% (average 3.4% per annum) for units and 12.6% (average 4.% per annum) for houses while the average rate of growth over the last 1 years for units was 5.5% compared to 7.8% for houses. 1 CAPITAL GROWTH IN POSTCODE 29 v SYDNEY (28-21)* 25% 25% 2% 2% 15% 15% 1% 1% 5% 5% -% -% -5% -5% -1% Dec 28 Dec 29 Dec 21 Last 3 Years -1% Dec 28 Dec 29 Dec 21 Last 3 Years Units in 29 Sydney Units Houses in 29 Sydney Houses * Rolling 12 month periods to quarter end Source: Ashton Rowe Research and Residex Suburb Report December 21 RENTAL YIELDS The median rental yield for units over the last quarter in postcode 29 was 4.1% at the end of December 21, slightly above the 1 year average of 4.%. The median rental yield for houses over the last quarter was 2.8% at the end of December 21, on par with the 1 year average. 2 OUTLOOK Within the unit market, all segments whilst slightly undersupplied, are broadly in balance and Ashton Rowe does not forecast any significant price movements over the next quarter. The housing market offers a very mixed bag in comparison. A lack of competition between vendors as well as significant price pressures will push up prices in the 3 and 4 bedroom segments, whilst the premium end 5 bedroom segment is due for a correction downwards (although the small size of this segment can mean one sale can impact more heavily on median price). 1 Ashton Rowe Research & Residex Suburb Report December 21 2 Ashton Rowe Research & Residex Suburb Report December 21 Croll First National Ashton Rowe Pty Ltd 211 December Quarter (Cremorne) 1

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