Autonomous factors in the Eurosystem. Paul Mercier 14 March 2010
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1 Autonomous factors in the Eurosystem Paul Mercier 14 March 2010
2 Weekly financial statement as of 4 March
3 Eurosystem simplified balance sheet As of 4 March 2011 (in billions) Assets Liabilities USD repos (*) 0.0 Claims of US Federal reserve (*) 0.0 Autonomous liquidity factors Autonomous liquidity factors Net foreign assets (A.1+A.2+ A Banknotes in circulation (L.1) L.7-L.8-L.9-USD repos) Government deposits (L.5.1) 91.6 Domestic assets (A.7.2+A.8) Other autonomous factors (net) Monetary policy instruments Monetary policy instruments Main refinancing operation (A.5.1) Current accounts (L.2.1) Longer term refinancing operation (A.5.2) Absorbing operations (L.2.3+L.2.4) 77.5 Marginal lending facility (A.5.5) 0.8 Deposit facility (L.2.2) 43.2 Covered bond portfolio (A.7.1) 60.7 Securities Markets Programme (A.7.1) 77.5 Total 1,505.3 Total 1,505.3 Total autonomous liquidity factors (autonomous liability factors autonomous asset factors): billion Published figure (incl. SMP) on Monday, 7 March: billion Sources: Items in brackets - Eurosystem weekly financial statements - Split SMP-CBPP from text to weekly financial statement Items with asterisk - Eurosystem open market operations - 3
4 Analysing autonomous factors 3 categories: Banknotes Government deposits Net portfolio: the sum of net foreign assets, domestic assets and other autonomous factors (OAF) Net foreign assets subject to quarterly revaluations and the revaluation accounts are recorded under OAF. Domestic portfolio transactions of NCBs recorded under different autonomous factors (domestic assets and OAF). Reclassification of investment portfolios at end 2008 affected domestic assets and OAF. 4
5 Total autonomous factors: (in billion)
6 Banknotes (L.1): (in billion)
7 180 Government deposits (L.5.1): (in billion)
8 Eurosystem simplified balance sheet As of 4 March 2011 (in billions) Assets Liabilities USD repos (*) 0.0 Claims of US Federal reserve (*) 0.0 Autonomous liquidity factors Autonomous liquidity factors Net foreign assets (A.1+A.2+ A Banknotes in circulation (L.1) L.7-L.8-L.9-USD repos) Government deposits (L.5.1) 91.6 Domestic assets (A.7.2+A.8) Other autonomous factors (net) Monetary policy instruments Monetary policy instruments Main refinancing operation (A.5.1) Current accounts (L.2.1) Longer term refinancing operation (A.5.2) Absorbing operations (L.2.3+L.2.4) 77.5 Marginal lending facility (A.5.5) 0.8 Deposit facility (L.2.2) 43.2 Covered bond portfolio (A.7.1) 60.7 Securities Markets Programme (A.7.1) 77.5 Total 1,505.3 Total 1,505.3 Total autonomous liquidity factors (autonomous liability factors autonomous asset factors): billion Published figure (incl. SMP) on Monday, 7 March: billion Sources: Items in brackets - Eurosystem weekly financial statements - Split SMP-CBPP from text to weekly financial statement Items with asterisk - Eurosystem open market operations - 8
9 Net portfolio: (in billion) Net foreign assets and domestic assets Net portfolio Other autonomous factors (net)
10 Daily volatility of autonomous factors (in billion) Banknotes Net Portfolio Government deposits Total
11 Average absolute accumulated forecast errors 8 days ahead (in billion) Banknotes Net Portfolio Government deposits Total
12 Monetary Policy operations and autonomous factors Eurosystem FX reserves and domestic assets Banknotes and other autonomous factors Monetary policy operations Reserves requirements Deposit facility 12
13 Monetary Policy operations and autonomous factors Eurosystem FX reserves and domestic assets Banknotes and other autonomous factors Monetary policy operations Reserves requirements Deposit facility 13
14 Substitution between Open Market Operations and MLF Eurosystem FX reserves and domestic assets Banknotes and other autonomous factors Monetary policy operations Reserves requirements Deposit facility 14
15 Monetary Policy operations and autonomous factors Eurosystem FX reserves and domestic assets Banknotes and other autonomous factors Monetary policy operations Reserves requirements MLF Deposit facility 15
16 Two ECB 40 publications in February On 17 February: On 25 February: 16
17 Developments in MP Marginal lending facility Autonomous factors including SMP MRO Mar 05-Mar 02-Mar 27-Feb 24-Feb 21-Feb 18-Feb 15-Feb 12-Feb 09-Feb 17
18 Average forecast errors in MP 2 (in billion, based on forecast on allotment day) 6 4 Banknotes Net Portfolio Government deposits Total Feb 15-Feb 22-Feb 01-Mar
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