Bank Tabungan Pensiunan Nasional

Transcription

1 Indonesia Company Guide Version 11 Bloomberg: BTPN IJ Reuters: BTPN.JK Refer to important disclosures at the end of this report DBS Group Research. Equity 25 Oct 2017 BUY Last Traded Price ( 24 Oct 2017): Rp2,550 (JCI : 5,952.10) Price Target 12-mth: Rp3,000 (18% upside) (Prev Rp3,100) Analyst Benedictus Agung SWANDONO agung.swandono@id.dbsvickers.com Sue Lin LIM suelinlim@dbs.com What s New 9M17 earnings above expectation due to lower-thanexpected investment costs; backloaded costs in 4Q17 Decline in pension loan portfolio is something to keep an eye on; in need of a new growth engine Management is undergoing structural changes while the going gets good Maintain BUY with lower TP at Rp3,000/share Price Relative Forecasts and Valuation FY Dec (Rpbn) 2016A 2017F 2018F 2019F Pre-prov. Profit 3,480 2,504 3,696 4,534 Net Profit 1,752 1,048 1,819 2,329 Net Pft (Pre Ex.) 1,752 1,048 1,819 2,329 Net Pft Gth (Pre-ex) (%) 3.0 (40.2) EPS (Rp) EPS Pre Ex. (Rp) EPS Gth Pre Ex (%) 3 (40) Diluted EPS (Rp) PE Pre Ex. (X) Net DPS (Rp) Div Yield (%) ROAE Pre Ex. (%) ROAE (%) ROA (%) BV Per Share (Rp) 2,796 2,927 3,248 3,659 P/Book Value (x) Earnings Rev (%): (33) 8 0 Consensus EPS (Rp): Other Broker Recs: B: 2 S: 0 H: 4 Source of all data on this page: Company, DBS Bank, DBSVI, Bloomberg Finance L.P. In change mode Progressive bank with undemanding valuation. Bank Tabungan Pensiunan Negara s (BTPN) stock has underperformed its peers and is currently trading at an undemanding 0.8x 18F BV, which is at its 7-year historical low. We believe the market has underestimated BTPN s strong fundamentals and the management progressive thinking. Despite having been able to maintain a solid performance in the past few years, management foresees the need to change and is currently undergoing structural changes on two fronts: 1) improving efficiency through branches and employee rationalisation, and 2) continuing the digital banking initiatives. The decline in pension loan portfolio in the past two quarters is something to watch for as it requires management to find another engine of growth. The weaker outlook for loan growth, along with onetime restructuring costs for the next quarter, prompted us to lower our earnings estimate by 33% for this year. However, we believe earnings should rebound next year as the restructuring should improve efficiency. Where we differ: Our TP is among the highest on the street. We believe the market is unjustifiably discounting BTPN s core business and focusing too much on its near-term investment and restructuring costs. Potential catalyst: Smooth execution of the restructuring. Stronger and sustained growth driven by SME and productive poor Syariah. Stronger customer acquisition for Jenius and BTPN WOW could also spur optimism on the success of the digital banking initiatives. Valuation: We maintain our BUY call on BTPN with a lower target price of Rp3,000 as we conservatively factor in potential restructuring costs for FY17. Our TP is based on the Gordon Growth Model (11% ROE, 10% growth and 11% cost of equity), and implies 0.9x FY18 BV. Key Risks to Our View: Digital banking initiatives flop. We believe failure to gain traction in its heavily invested digital banking initiatives is the main risk for BTPN. At A Glance Issued Capital (m shrs) 5,840 Mkt. Cap (Rpbn/US$m) 14,893 / 1,098 Major Shareholders (%) Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group 40.0% Summit Global Capital (%) 20.0% TPG Nusantara (%) 8.4% Free Float (%) 31.6% 3m Avg. Daily Val (US$m) 0.01 ICB Industry : Financials / Banks ed: CK / sa: xxx, PY

2 WHAT S NEW Change before you have to The change of growth driver going forward. Pension loans (c.60% of portfolio) and micro loans (c.10% of portfolio) have been BTPN s main source of growth and profitability. But we believe this is changing. In 9M17, its pension loan portfolio has declined for the second consecutive quarter while the micro business is still on the mend due to fierce competition from the subsidised micro loans (Kredit Usaha Rakyat/KUR). BTPN s loan portfolio breakdown in 9M17 Pension Micro isme Syariah Others 9% 4% Strong performance of productive poor Syariah to compensate for decline in micro loans The company has been able to offset the declining micro business through the expansion of productive poor Syariah loans. The productive poor Syariah is a very profitable business with ROA of above 10%, thanks to its high yields which can reach the 50% p.a. level. But gradual decline in the pension business, if continues, would be harder to compensate. The pension loan business makes up a big chunk of BTPN s loan portfolio and is a highyielding business. We noticed that management is trying to compensate for the decline in pension loans by growing the SME loans. However, the yield of SME loans is lower at 11%/12% which was much lower than pension loans high teens rate. This could result in lower yields going forward. Source: Company, DBSVI Pension loan portfolio Rp bn 42,000 41,000 40,000 39,000 38,000 37,000 36,000 35,000 34,000 33,000 32,000 31,000 Source: Company, DBSVI Micro loan portfolio Rp bn 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1, % Source: Company, DBSVI 9% 61% Initiatives to improve efficiency. Management announced that it will reduce 50% of its branches and 40% of its number of employees to improve efficiency. This could result in over Rp200bn operating cost reduction every year starting However, BTPN s should incur c.rp700bn restructuring costs of to be booked in 4Q17. Management firmly stated that this is a one-time restructuring costs and should not recur next year. Progress in BTPN WOW looks encouraging. BTPN WOW, the digital banking product for the middle- to low-income segment, is gaining traction. The number of customers of BTPN WOW reached 4.3m customers with the number of active customers increasing to 69% from 36% at the beginning of the year. This translates into 11.6m transactions handled during 9M17. Looking at the positive trend, we are optimistic that BTPN WOW will be a successful product. Jenius is the bigger game, but harder to win. Jenius, the digital banking product to cater to the affluent middle class, has shown slower traction. A year after its launch, BTPN Jenius has acquired only 359K customers, with a mere 58K customers being acquired during the past quarter. A customer count of 1m is the scale that management is aiming for, but we don t believe this can be achieved in the near future. We believe that Jenius is the bigger game as it could have a greater impact in improving BTPN s funding. The average deposit balance of BTPN Jenius stands at c.rp1m/customer, while BTPN WOW s is at a mere Rp45k/customer. Earnings revision to factor in restructuring Management indicated that the company will incur a loss in 4Q17 due to Rp700bn restructuring cost. But this will result in better operating efficiency going forward. We also note that the digital banking expenses should be lower than we expect. We therefore lower our 17E earnings forecast by 33% but raise 18E earnings by 8% to incorporate these efficiency factors. Page 2

3 Better-than-expected 9M17 earnings due to slower digital banking expenses. Earnings in 9M17 were flattish at -2% y-o-y but form a high 88% of our full-year forecast due to lowerthan-expected expenses related to the digital banking initiatives. Subtle loan growth dragged by pension and micro loans. Loans grew by only 5% y-o-y mainly dragged by slow pension loans (+1%) and micro (-19%). SME and productive poor Syariah loans saw stellar growth of 30% y-o-y and 28% y-o-y respectively, but were unable to compensate for the weakness in other segments. Consumer financing, which was mainly channelled to multi-finance companies, more than doubled to Rp1.7tr. on time deposits enables it to reap the benefits of the recent two policy rate cuts. Asset quality is also stable with NPL at 0.9% (vs 0.89% in 2Q17). Liquidity and capital remained strong. Liquidity remained solid with LFR ratio at 88% in 9M17 mainly due to the slow loan growth. CAR also remained solid at 24.8%. Valuation We maintain our BUY call on BTPN with a lower target price of Rp3,000 as we conservatively factor in potential restructuring costs for FY17. Our TP is based on the Gordon Growth Model (11% ROE, 10% growth and 11% cost of equity), and implies 0.9x FY18 BV Stable NIM and NPL. NIM stood at 11.7%, slightly higher than 11.5% in last month due to lower cost of funds. BTPN reliance Quarterly / Interim Income Statement (Rpbn) FY Dec 3Q2016 2Q2017 3Q2017 % chg yoy % chg qoq Net Interest Income 2,267 2,380 2, (1.1) Non-Interest Income (12.4) Operating Income 2,363 2,503 2, (1.7) Operating Expenses (1,485) (1,587) (1,548) 4.3 (2.5) Pre-Provision Profit (0.4) Provisions (181) (741) (255) 41.1 (65.6) Associates nm nm Exceptionals nm nm Pretax Profit (6.2) (4.2) Taxation (181) (177) (169) (6.5) (4.5) Minority Interests (36.0) (48.1) (52.9) (47.1) 10.1 Net Profit (10.1) (5.6) Key ratio (%) NIM NPL ratio Loan-to deposit Cost-to-income Total CAR Source of all data: Company, DBS Bank, DBSVI Page 3

4 CRITICAL DATA POINTS TO WATCH Critical Factors NIM to normalise. We expect BTPN s NIM to normalise to 11% after hitting a high of c.12% in FY16. Loan yields could gradually slip due to the change in loan mix and mechanics of the industry. Micro borrowers tend to eventually migrate to the informal SME loan segment, which carries lower yields. In the meantime, there will be pressure on its micro lending business due to the new Kredit Usaha Rakyat (KUR) programme which the government initiated in August Separately, liquidity is not an issue as BTPN has access to cheaper structured funding facilities and ample liquid assets. Loan growth to moderate. BTPN is targeting single digit loan growth in 2017, driven by the productive poor Syariah and SME segments. Pension loan growth should be stable. BTPN is aware of the challenges faced by the micro loan segment as the KUR scheme continues in Its micro loan growth is likely to be under threat but BTPN intends to participate in the KUR programme on a small scale. Hence, there would be downside risk to BTPN s micro loan growth. Separately, the bulk of BTPN s loans will still be pension loans, which are projected to grow at low single digit rate. Higher expenses due to new initiatives. As we have seen in the past, BTPN tends to invest in times of crisis to reap the benefits in the future. For example, it completed the majority of its capex in IT infrastructure and human resources in 2009, which led to a strong micro and productive poor business model up till now. The bank spent Rp600bn last year to roll out its digital banking initiative (BTPN WOW and BTPN Jenius). The investment cost could be doubled this year in line with management s conviction to follow through on its vision. Branchless banking initiative. BTPN is one of the first four banks to receive approval from the OJK to launch a branchless banking product, which the bank has named BTPN WOW. The business model is simple customers will use mobile applications to perform transactions. Agents can be recruited from its best micro or productive poor customers. Once BTPN secures a sufficient number of branchless banking customers and becomes a transaction bank for the mass market, it will monetise this by potentially selling products such as micro loans and micro insurance. CASA levels will also be higher. Provision expenses under control. Provision expense has never been an issue for BTPN due to its low NPL ratio. We expect credit charge-off rates to remain at c.1.4% and there is no pressure on asset quality as of now Margin Trends Gross Loan & Growth Customer Deposit & Growth Loan-to-Deposit Ratio Trend Cost & Income Structure Source: Company, DBS Bank, DBSVI Page 4

5 Appendix 1: A look at Company's listed history what drives its share price? NIM as critical factor Oct-09 Oct-10 Oct-11 Oct-12 Oct-13 Oct-14 Oct-15 Oct-16 Last Price NIM Bond yield as critical factor Oct-09 Oct-10 Oct-11 Oct-12 Oct-13 Oct-14 Oct-15 Oct Remarks NIM is positively correlated to BTPN s stock price. The decline in NIM during the period was mainly due to BTPN s decision to shift away from the high-yielding micro business. By 1H17, micro loans contribution to total loans declined to 10% (vs 23% in FY13). The 10-year government bond yield shows strong negative correlation of 0.68% with BTPN s stock price. Last Price Bond Yield Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., DBS Bank, DBSVI Share price performance (10-year historical trend) BTPN successfully developed the micro business. Loan growth was driven by high yielding micro loans with well managed NPLs Mid 2013: Bond yield spiked due to Indonesia's widening twin deficits. This erased gains on most of the stocks, including BTPN's : Stock price had stagnated due to moderate loan growth and lower NIM. ROE was also historically low 0 Oct-09 Oct-10 Oct-11 Oct-12 Oct-13 Oct-14 Oct-15 Oct-16 BTPN Source: DBS Bank, DBSVI Page 5

6 Balance Sheet: NPL is not an issue. NPLs have never been an issue for BTPN and this has historically been below 1%. There were increases in the NPL ratio recently for its productive poor segment, which is now entering a more mature phase. BTPN s micro loans went through a similar phase before becoming more seasoned. Management indicated that its risk management strategies have been successful in keeping NPLs at low levels even during the current tough economic environment. Solid capital base. BTPN has always been overcapitalised, with capital ratios of above 20% over the past five years. BTPN has never paid out dividends. However, the management has acknowledged that the currently high CAR provides ample room for growth and also dividends. Share Price Drivers: Strong growth in SME and productive poor Syariah loans. Top-line growth and earnings will be driven by the traction in the SME and productive poor Syariah segments. Better-than-expected results could come from successful integration of BTPN WOW into the Syariah business model, leading to a faster underwriting and collection process. Investing for the future. While still not visible at this stage, we remain positive on BTPN s forward-looking management. Faced with threats in the micro business from government initiatives, BTPN has proven its ability to quickly draw up new business plans to position itself for the future. Asset Quality Capitalisation (%) ROE (%) Key Risks: Change in business strategy. There has always been an ongoing concerns that having SMBC as its new strategic shareholder would result in a possible change in BTPN s focus. It has been three years since, and BTPN s business focus has remained intact Digital banking initiatives to flop. We believe failure to gain traction in its heavily invested digital banking initiatives to be the main risk for BTPN. Company Background BTPN specialises in pension loans and is currently on a strong growth path for micro loans and loans to the productive poor. Its funding profile largely hinges on time deposits and bonds (wholesale funding). Forward PE Band (x) PB Band (x) Source: Company, DBS Bank, DBSVI Page 6

7 Key Assumptions FY Dec 2015A 2016A 2017F 2018F 2019F Gross Loans Growth Customer Deposits Growth Yld. On Earnings Assets Avg Cost Of Funds Income Statement (Rpbn) FY Dec 2015A 2016A 2017F 2018F 2019F Net Interest Income 7,696 8,854 9,279 9,691 10,284 Non-Interest Income Operating Income 8,401 9,543 9,844 10,293 11,097 Operating Expenses (5,156) (6,064) (7,340) (6,597) (6,564) Pre-provision Profit 3,246 3,480 2,504 3,696 4,534 Provisions (786) (870) (940) (987) (1,066) Associates Exceptionals Pre-tax Profit 2,433 2,605 1,559 2,703 3,462 Taxation (680) (729) (436) (756) (969) Minority Interests (50.8) (124) (74.0) (128) (165) Preference Dividend Net Profit 1,702 1,752 1,048 1,819 2,329 Net Profit bef Except 1,702 1,752 1,048 1,819 2,329 Growth (%) Net Interest Income Gth Net Profit Gth (8.9) 3.0 (40.2) Margins, Costs & Efficiency (%) Spread Net Interest Margin Cost-to-Income Ratio Business Mix (%) Net Int. Inc / Opg Inc Non-Int. Inc / Opg inc Fee Inc / Opg Income Oth Non-Int Inc/Opg Inc Profitability (%) ROAE Pre Ex ROAE ROA Pre Ex ROA Source: Company, DBS Bank, DBSVI Page 7

8 Quarterly / Interim Income Statement (Rpbn) FY Dec 3Q2016 4Q2016 1Q2017 2Q2017 3Q2017 Net Interest Income 2,267 2,338 2,383 2,380 2,353 Non-Interest Income Operating Income 2,363 2,506 2,528 2,503 2,460 Operating Expenses (1,485) (1,631) (1,574) (1,587) (1,548) Pre-Provision Profit Provisions (181) (268) 253 (741) (255) Associates Exceptionals Pretax Profit Taxation (181) (209) (183) (177) (169) Minority Interests (36.0) (39.1) (39.7) (48.1) (52.9) Net Profit Growth (%) Net Interest Income Gth (0.1) (1.1) Net Profit Gth (1.7) (26.2) 34.8 (4.4) (5.6) Balance Sheet (Rpbn) FY Dec 2015A 2016A 2017F 2018F 2019F Cash/Bank Balance 6,194 6,932 7,794 10,320 12,472 Government Securities 1,099 2,699 2,699 2,699 2,699 Inter Bank Assets 6,206 7,004 7,704 8,474 9,322 Total Net Loans & Advs. 58,710 63,248 66,319 69,715 75,501 Investment 4,930 5,953 6,515 7,134 7,815 Associates Fixed Assets 876 1,632 1,451 1,265 1,074 Goodwill Other Assets 3,025 3,904 3,502 3,703 3,603 Total Assets 81,040 91,371 95, , ,485 Customer Deposits 60,538 66,449 70,591 75,160 81,357 Inter Bank Deposits Debts/Borrowings 5,401 6,258 6,684 7,193 7,828 Others 1,178 1,437 1,126 1,198 1,162 Minorities Shareholders' Funds 13,576 15,838 16,578 18,396 20,725 Total Liab& S/H s Funds 81,040 91,371 95, , ,485 Source: Company, DBS Bank, DBSVI Page 8

9 Financial Stability Measures (%) FY Dec 2015A 2016A 2017F 2018F 2019F Balance Sheet Structure Loan-to-Deposit Ratio Net Loans / Total Assets Investment / Total Assets Cust. Dep./Int. Bear. Liab Interbank Dep / Int. Bear Asset Quality NPL / Total Gross Loans NPL / Total Assets Loan Loss Reserve Coverage Provision Charge-Off Rate Capital Strength Total CAR Tier-1 CAR Source: Company, DBS Bank, DBSVI Target Price & Ratings History Source: DBS Bank, DBSVI Analyst: Benedictus Agung SWANDONO Sue Lin LIM Page 9

10 DBS Bank, DBSVI recommendations are based an Absolute Total Return* Rating system, defined as follows: STRONG BUY (>20% total return over the next 3 months, with identifiable share price catalysts within this time frame) BUY (>15% total return over the next 12 months for small caps, >10% for large caps) HOLD (-10% to +15% total return over the next 12 months for small caps, -10% to +10% for large caps) FULLY VALUED (negative total return i.e. > -10% over the next 12 months) SELL (negative total return of > -20% over the next 3 months, with identifiable catalysts within this time frame) Share price appreciation + dividends Completed Date: 25 Oct :28:13 (WIB) Dissemination Date: 25 Oct :33:37 (WIB) Sources for all charts and tables are DBS Bank, DBSVI unless otherwise specified. GENERAL DISCLOSURE/DISCLAIMER This report is prepared by DBS Bank Ltd, PT DBS Vickers Sekuritas Indonesia (''DBSVI''). 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