Reinventing the City Model: Capital Flows & City Success
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1 Reinventing the City Model: Capital Flows & City Success Colin Lizieri Grosvenor Professor of Real Estate Finance Cambridge Real Estate Research Centre The University of Cambridge ULI Europe, Paris, February 2014
2 Introduction and Agenda The Return of Global Real Estate Investment A Renewed Interest in Cities and Urban Systems Global Capital Flows and Target Markets Investment Flows and Performance Investment Flows and City Success An Agenda: Why Are Capital Flows So Concentrated? How Do Key Target Cities Perform? Do Investors Target Growth Cities Is City Performance and Investment Linked?
3 Post-Financial Crisis Investment Recovery Real Estate Transactions % Investment $billion % 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% % Office Other % Office (RHS) Data Real Capital Analytics, Inc. 2013
4 RCA Office Investment Share City Share, All Offices City Share, Global Offices 19.5% 24.3% 11.3% 9.7% 41.5% 15.7% 20.4% 16.8% 20.2% 20.7% Top Rest Top Rest Data Real Capital Analytics, Inc. 2013
5 Concentration Increases Over Crisis & Recovery Cumulative Investment Share of Leading Target Cities CR3 23.3% 25.7% 24.7% 28.3% CR % 47.9% 46.2% 48.4% CR % 61.9% 61.8% 63.6% CR % 66.9% 67.4% 69.6% CR % 81.7% 82.1% 84.9% CR % 92.8% 92.7% 94.4% Data Real Capital Analytics, Inc. 2013
6 What Explains this Concentration? Flight to Quality or Safe Havens? Major City Markets are More Stable Prime Assets Less Volatile Markets Less Prone to Falls, Faster to Recover Flight to Liquidity? Prime Assets and Major Markets Deeper and More Liquid Liquidity More Stable Over Cycle Exit Strategies Investing in Success? Major Cities are More Successful Success Transfers into Performance Institutional/Structural Factors? Economies of Scale for Large Investors, Ease of Access Access to Capital and Risk Aversion in Lenders Transparency and Ease of Business
7 Have Target Markets Recovered Faster? % Change in CV from Market Trough EMEA Office Market Capital Value Recovery 90.00% 80.00% 70.00% 60.00% 50.00% 40.00% 30.00% 20.00% 10.00% 0.00% 10.00% $100 $1,000 $10,000 Foreign Investment Log Volume $bn Estimated from CBRE and RCA Data
8 Have Target Markets Recovered Faster? % Change in RV from Market Trough EMEA Office Market Rental Value Recovery 40.0% 35.0% 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% $100 $1,000 $10,000 Foreign Investment Log Volume $bn Estimated from CBRE and RCA Data
9 How Have Targets Performed Over Cycle? EMEA Markets: Higher Risk, Lower Return? Mean Capital Value Growth Lower; Volatility of Capital Value Growth Higher; Mean Rental Value Growth Lower; Volatility of Rental Value Growth Higher; Capital Value Falls Peak to Trough Higher; Capital (but not Rental) Value Recovery Faster EMEA Offices Capital Value Risk Peak to Trough Fall CV Risk Estimated from CBRE and RCA Data
10 Are Target Markets More Liquid? A Weak Relationship Between Investment Rank and European Office Market Turnover Post Crisis Top % per annum: Others 4.7% per annum Top 30 Targets Experienced Lower Falls in Turnover Top 30-19% fall: Others -30% fall Investment Turnover Post Crisis 25.00% 20.00% 15.00% 10.00% 5.00% 0.00% European Cities Office Turnover Aggregate Investment Rank Estimated from DTZ and RCA Data
11 Does Investment Target City Success? Any Effects Masked By Size Effects Office Investment and City Growth Growth >200 City Rank, Aggregate Investment Employment Growth Income Growth Estimated from LSE and RCA Data
12 But Does Income Growth Drive Rental Growth? Supply Adjusts! Cannot Treat Demand Growth in Isolation Long Run Evidence Suggests Limited Real Rental Growth Higher Income Growth Linked to Capital Value Volatility Rental Value Growth % 5.00% 4.00% 3.00% 2.00% 1.00% 0.00% 1.00% Rental Growth versus City Income Growth 2.00% City Income Growth Estimated from LSE and CBRE Data
13 The Known Unknowns What Effects Do Commercial Real Estate Investment Flows Have on the Success of Cities? Are Cities with High Relative Capital Flows More Successful in Economic Terms? Are Cities with High Relative Capital Flows Better Urban Environments? Do Successful Cities Capture Investment Flows Or Do Investment Flows Drive Success? Do Investment Flows Lock Cities into Global Instability? Most Evidence Here is Anecdotal and Motivated Significant Measurement Issues How Do We Measure Success and Urban Quality? How Do We Proxy for Historic Capital Flows?
14 Summing Up Real Estate Investment Volumes Recovering Post-GFC Investment Remains Highly Concentrated Investment Performance and City Success Do Not Fully Explain That Concentration of Activity City Success Does Not Automatically Translate Into Investment Success Role of Institutional Factors and Behavioural Factors? Do Beliefs Matter More than Facts? How Do Investment Flows Affect City Success?
15 Reinventing the City Model: Capital Flows & City Success Colin Lizieri, University of Cambridge I acknowledge, with gratitude, data supplied by, or utilised from, inter alia, CBRE, DTZ, EU-ESPON, JLL, LSE Cities, RCA, Z/Yen. Data remain the copyright of the suppliers. Interpretations are the author s own and should not be taken as representing views and opinions of any of those providing data. The work presented here is preliminary and in progress. Please do not quote without permission and please contact author for current version of the research. This presentation has been prepared solely for informational purposes and should not be considered investment advice nor relied upon for investment strategy. It should not be regarded as comprehensive or sufficient for making decisions, nor should it be used in place of professional advice. No representation or warranty (express or implied) is made or can be given with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the information in this presentation, which is subject to amendment and variation in whole or in part. ULI Europe, Paris, February 2014
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