GLOBAL MARKET SENTIMENT SURVEY 2015

Transcription

1 GLOBAL MARKET SENTIMENT SURVEY 2015 DETAILED SURVEY RESULTS December 2014

2 TABLE OF CONTENTS 1. MARKET PREDICTIONS 2. ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 3. EMPLOYMENT PROSPECTS 4. TRUST IN PRACTITIONERS 5. MARKET INTEGRITY 6. MARKET STRUCTURE 7. ABOUT THIS STUDY CFA Institute

3 MARKET PREDICTIONS United States and China continue to be considered the best investment opportunities. CFA Institute

4 WHICH EQUITY MARKET DO YOU THINK WILL PROVIDE THE BEST INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY IN 2015?* 33% 3% 3% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% *Chart shows proportion of members picking the market as the best investment opportunity 4

5 WHICH EQUITY MARKET DO YOU THINK WILL PROVIDE THE BEST INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY?* % 2 1 3% 3% 3% 1% 3% USA China India Russia Germany Brazil Japan *Chart shows proportion of members picking the market as the best investment opportunity (top 6 markets displayed) 5

6 WHERE DO YOU EXPECT EACH OF THE FOLLOWING INDICES TO BE AT THE CLOSE OF BUSINESS 31 DECEMBER 2015?* 30 Sept 2014 (Actual close) 31 Dec 2015* (Predicted close) % Change Euro Stoxx 50 (SX5E) 3,226 3, S&P 500 (SPX) 1,972 2, Nikkei 225 (NKY) 16,174 16, US Treasury 30-year yield (%) Crude Oil Brent ($US/bbl) Comex Gold ($US/t oz) 1,212 1, Note: Question was asked of all members globally *31 December 2015 values are the average of predicted responses globally 6

7 WHERE DO YOU EXPECT EACH OF THE FOLLOWING INDICES TO BE AT THE CLOSE OF BUSINESS 31 DECEMBER 2015?* 30 Sept 2014 (Actual close) 31 Dec 2015* (Predicted close) % Change Toronto stock exchange (TSX) 14,961 15, Bovespa (IBOV) 54,116 55, FTSE 100 (UKX) 6,623 6, CAC 40 (CAC) 4,416 4, % DAX (DAX) 9,474 9, % Swiss Market (SMI) 8,835 8, Micex (INDEXCF) 1,411 1, JSE Africa All-Share (JALSh) 49,336 50, % ASX 200 (AS51) 5,293 5, % Shanghai Comp (SHCMOP) 2,364 2, % Hang Seng (HSI) 22,933 23, Nifty (NIFTY) 7,965 8, STI Straits Times (FSSTI) 3,277 3, Note: Members in each market were shown only the index relevant to their local market *31 December 2015 values are the average of predicted responses 7

8 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK Investment professionals surveyed are cautious about prospects for global economic growth in CFA Institute

9 IN 2015, BY HOW MUCH DO YOU EXPECT YOUR COUNTRY S ECONOMY (GDP) TO CONTRACT OR GROW? % 2.3% % % 9

10 IN 2015, BY HOW MUCH DO YOU EXPECT THE GLOBAL ECONOMY (GDP) TO CONTRACT OR GROW? % % 2.3% % 2.1% 2.0% 2.0%

11 WHAT IMPACT, IF ANY, WILL THE FOLLOWING HAVE ON YOUR LOCAL MARKET IN 2015: Scale: Negative impact, No impact, Positive impact and Don t know AMER APAC EMEA % % 7 60% 6 63% 60% 63% 6 Positive impact Negative impact Progress of recovery in Europe Positive impact Negative impact Progress of recovery in China Positive impact Negative impact Political stability in your home market Positive impact Negative impact Reversal of capital flows (from emerging markets to developed markets) Positive impact Negative impact Growth of nonbank lending or shadow banking sector Positive impact Negative impact Effects on energy prices caused by global unrest in Ukraine and the Middle East Positive impact Negative impact Central banks ending quantitative easing Positive impact Negative impact Resurgence of short-sellers No impact and Don t know option not displayed 11

12 WHAT DO YOU SEE AS HAVING THE BIGGEST POSITIVE IMPACT ON GLOBAL CAPITAL MARKETS IN 2015? Global AMER APAC EMEA 1% 1% 1% % 3 31% Continued accommodative central bank policies Increased focus on job creation and consumer consumption Continued globalization and increases in global capital flows De-leveraging and decreased systemic risks of banks Increased market transparency Improved enforcement of existing regulation Effective new regulation Other No opinion option excluded from results. 12

13 WHAT DO YOU SEE AS HAVING THE BIGGEST POSITIVE IMPACT ON GLOBAL CAPITAL MARKETS IN 2015?* Continued accommodative central bank policies Continued globalization and increases in global capital flows Increased focus on job creation and consumer consumption De-leveraging and decreased systemic risks of banks GLOBAL 30% 1 SOUTH AFRICA 40% FRANCE 40% 30% UNITED KINGDOM 3 SWITZERLAND 3 USA 33% SINGAPORE 3 2 NETHERLANDS 30% GERMANY 30% JAPAN 2 30% CANADA INDIA 2 2 BRAZIL 2 AUSTRALIA 2 2 HONG KONG 2 CHINA 31% 1 No opinion option excluded from results. *Displaying top four response options globally 13

14 WHAT DO YOU SEE AS THE BIGGEST RISK TO GLOBAL CAPITAL MARKETS IN 2015? GLOBAL AMER APAC EMEA 30% 1 3% 3% 3% 1% 1% 1% Weak developed market economies Political instability Systemic disruptions Rise in interest rates Weak emerging market economies Inflationary surprises Excess regulation Weak regulation Other No opinion option excluded from results. 14

15 WHAT DO YOU SEE AS THE BIGGEST RISK TO GLOBAL CAPITAL MARKETS IN 2015?* Weak developed market economies Political instability Systemic disruptions Rise in interest rates GLOBAL 30% INDIA 4 BRAZIL 3 3% USA 3 2 UNITED KINGDOM 31% NETHERLANDS 30% HONG KONG 30% 2 SWITZERLAND 2 FRANCE 2 1 GERMANY 2 1 JAPAN 2 SINGAPORE 2 CHINA 2 CANADA AUSTRALIA 2 SOUTH AFRICA 3 *Displaying top four risks to global markets. No opinion option excluded from results. 15

16 WHAT DO YOU SEE AS THE BIGGEST RISK TO YOUR LOCAL MARKET IN 2015?* AMER APAC EMEA Weak developed market economies Rise in interest rates Political instability Excess regulation Systemic disruptions Weak emerging market economies Inflationary surprises Weak regulation Other No opinion option excluded from results. 16

17 WHAT DO YOU SEE AS THE BIGGEST RISK TO YOUR LOCAL MARKET IN 2015?* Weak developed market economies Rise in interest rates Political instability Excess regulation Systemic disruptions Weak emerging market economies Inflationary surprises Weak regulation Other NETHERLANDS 4 3% FRANCE 4 SWITZERLAND 4 3% GERMANY 3 1% INDIA 30% 1% 33% UNITED KINGDOM 2 2 1% 1% JAPAN 2 2 3% 3% 2 SINGAPORE 2 2 USA 1 CANADA 1% CHINA AUSTRALIA 33% 1% SOUTH AFRICA 2 3% HONG KONG 4 3% BRAZIL 3% 53% 1% No opinion option excluded from results. *Totals may not add to 100% due to rounding. 17

18 OVER THE NEXT FIVE YEARS, WHAT IS THE MOST UNDERESTIMATED RISK THAT COULD NEGATIVELY IMPACT GLOBAL CAPITAL MARKETS? GLOBAL AMER APAC EMEA % 2 1 Political risks, including secessionist and nationalistic movements Impact from the demographic trend of ageing populations Pension plan shortfalls and low levels of retirement savings Data privacy and cyber threats Climate change and environmental issues Other No opinion option excluded from results. 18

19 OVER THE NEXT FIVE YEARS, WHAT IS THE MOST UNDERESTIMATED RISK THAT COULD NEGATIVELY IMPACT GLOBAL CAPITAL MARKETS?* GLOBAL USA INDIA AUSTRALIA CANADA NETHERLANDS HONG KONG UNITED KINGDOM CHINA SINGAPORE SWITZERLAND JAPAN SOUTH AFRICA FRANCE GERMANY BRAZIL 2 2 Political risks, including secessionist and nationalistic movements Impact from the demographic trend of ageing populations Pension plan shortfalls and low levels of retirement savings Data privacy and cyber threats 3 33% % 50% 1 2 No opinion option excluded from results. *Displaying top four risks to global markets

20 EMPLOYMENT PROSPECTS Opportunities for investment professionals in India and China brighten. CFA Institute

21 IN 2015, DO YOU EXPECT EMPLOYMENT OPPORTUNITIES FOR INVESTMENT PROFESSIONALS IN YOUR LOCAL MARKET TO INCREASE, DECREASE, OR STAY ABOUT THE SAME? AMER APAC EMEA Increase Stay about the same Decrease Not Sure option excluded 21

22 IN 2015, DO YOU EXPECT EMPLOYMENT OPPORTUNITIES FOR INVESTMENT PROFESSIONALS IN YOUR LOCAL MARKET TO INCREASE, DECREASE, OR STAY ABOUT THE SAME? Increase Stay about the same Decrease INDIA 7 1% CHINA 60% 30% UNITED KINGDOM 3 4 USA 33% 53% HONG KONG 3 4 SINGAPORE 30% 4 2 JAPAN 2 5 FRANCE % NETHERLANDS 3 43% CANADA 1 63% SOUTH AFRICA 6 AUSTRALIA 60% 2 BRAZIL 2 5 SWITZERLAND 4 40% GERMANY 5 3 Not Sure option excluded 22

23 DO YOU EXPECT EMPLOYMENT OPPORTUNITIES FOR INVESTMENT PROFESSIONALS IN YOUR LOCAL MARKET TO INCREASE, DECREASE, OR STAY ABOUT THE SAME? % 4 50% % 3 33% 1 Increase Stay about the same Decrease Not Sure option excluded 23

24 TRUST IN PRACTITIONERS The single most important firm-level action needed to bolster investor trust is to improve alignment of investment management incentives with investor objectives. CFA Institute

25 WHICH FACTOR DO YOU THINK HAS CONTRIBUTED THE MOST TO THE CURRENT LACK OF TRUST IN THE FINANCE INDUSTRY? GLOBAL AMER APAC EMEA 63% % Lack of ethical culture within financial firms Poor government regulation and enforcement Market micro structure I don t think there is lack of trust in the finance industry. Other No opinion option excluded from results. 25

26 WHICH FACTOR DO YOU THINK HAS CONTRIBUTED THE MOST TO THE CURRENT LACK OF TRUST IN THE FINANCE INDUSTRY? Lack of ethical culture within financial firms Market micro structure Other Poor government regulation and enforcement I don t think there is lack of trust in the finance industry. GLOBAL GERMANY SWITZERLAND SOUTH AFRICA FRANCE JAPAN SINGAPORE AUSTRALIA INDIA HONG KONG NETHERLANDS BRAZIL CANADA UNITED KINGDOM USA CHINA 63% 73% 73% 70% % 61% 61% 60% 5 53% 1 3% 1 3% No opinion option excluded from results. 26

27 WHICH ONE OF THE FOLLOWING FIRM LEVEL ACTIONS IS MOST NEEDED IN THE COMING YEAR TO HELP IMPROVE INVESTOR TRUST AND CONFIDENCE? 33% GLOBAL AMER APAC EMEA 31% 30% 30% % 3% 3% 3% Better alignment of compensation with investor objectives Zero tolerance policy by top management for ethical breaches Increased adherence to ethical codes and standards Clarification of best interest standards or adoption of best interest standards Increased staff training and education Better disclosure of trading costs Other No opinion option excluded from results. 27

28 WHICH ONE OF THE FOLLOWING FIRM LEVEL ACTIONS IS MOST NEEDED IN THE COMING YEAR TO HELP IMPROVE INVESTOR TRUST AND CONFIDENCE? Better alignment of compensation with investor objectives Zero tolerance policy by top management for ethical breaches Increased adherence to ethical codes and standards Clarification of best interest standards or adoption of best interest standards Increased staff training and education Better disclosure of trading costs Other GLOBAL 31% 2 3% SINGAPORE 3 2 3% CANADA 3 2 3% AUSTRALIA 3 2 3% SWITZERLAND 3 2 3% 3% UNITED KINGDOM 3 2 GERMANY 33% USA 33% 2 NETHERLANDS 3 2 3% SOUTH AFRICA 3 33% 1 JAPAN 30% 2 3% HONG KONG FRANCE 2 2 3% 3% INDIA 2 3 CHINA BRAZIL 41% 1 3% No opinion option excluded from results. 28

29 MARKET INTEGRITY Market fraud and integrity of financial reporting generally rank as the most serious concerns for global markets. CFA Institute

30 HOW WOULD YOU RATE THE LEVEL OF INTEGRITY OF GLOBAL CAPITAL MARKETS IN 2014? Scale: Poor (1) to Excellent (5) GLOBAL AMER APAC EMEA Poor (1+2) 3 Excellent (4+5) 30

31 HOW WOULD YOU RATE THE LEVEL OF INTEGRITY OF GLOBAL CAPITAL MARKETS IN 2014? Scale: Poor (1) to Excellent (5) Poor (1 and 2) 3 Excellent (4 and 5) GLOBAL BRAZIL 5 2 CANADA 1 50% 3 USA 5 2 AUSTRALIA CHINA 51% 3 HONG KONG 4 33% INDIA 5 30% JAPAN SINGAPORE FRANCE 53% 2 GERMANY 4 2 NETHERLANDS 5 2 SOUTH AFRICA 53% 3 SWITZERLAND 5 UNITED KINGDOM 51% 2 Chart displays Poor(1+2), 3 and Excellent (4+5) 31

32 HOW WOULD YOU RATE THE LEVEL OF INTEGRITY OF GLOBAL CAPITAL MARKETS? Scale: Poor (1) to Excellent (5) Poor (1+2) 3 Excellent (4+5) 32

33 DO YOU THINK THE INTEGRITY OF GLOBAL CAPITAL MARKETS IN 2015 WILL BE BETTER OR WORSE THAN IN 2014? GLOBAL AMER APAC EMEA 6 71% 6 61% 31% 2 2 Worse About the same Better 33

34 DO YOU THINK THE INTEGRITY OF GLOBAL CAPITAL MARKETS IN 2015 WILL BE BETTER OR WORSE THAN IN 2014? Worse About the same Better GLOBAL 6 2 JAPAN 5 3 SINGAPORE 6 HONG KONG 6 SWITZERLAND 6 2 AUSTRALIA 6 2 CANADA 73% GERMANY 73% SOUTH AFRICA 6 2 USA 71% CHINA 4 4 UNITED KINGDOM 6 2 FRANCE 6 2 NETHERLANDS 5 3 BRAZIL 5 3 INDIA 3% 5 40% 34

35 PLEASE RANK THE FOLLOWING ETHICAL ISSUES FACING YOUR LOCAL MARKET IN THE COMING YEAR (2015) IN ORDER OF THE MOST SERIOUS TO THE LEAST SERIOUS* AMER APAC EMEA Misaligned incentives of investment management services Mis-selling by financial advisers Market fraud Market trading practices Integrity of financial reporting Disclosure/use of financial derivatives *Chart displaying proportion of members ranking the ethical issue as the most serious facing their local market. 35

36 PLEASE RANK THE FOLLOWING ETHICAL ISSUES FACING YOUR LOCAL MARKET IN THE COMING YEAR (2015) IN ORDER OF THE MOST SERIOUS TO THE LEAST SERIOUS* Misaligned incentives of investment management services Market fraud Integrity of financial reporting Mis-selling by financial advisers Market trading practices Disclosure/use of financial derivatives GERMANY 3 SWITZERLAND 3 AUSTRALIA 3 3 3% CANADA 3 2 FRANCE 2 USA 1 1 SINGAPORE 30% SOUTH AFRICA 3 UNITED KINGDOM JAPAN 2 NETHERLANDS 1 2 BRAZIL HONG KONG 1 31% 2 3% CHINA 40% 3 INDIA 2 3 *Chart displaying proportion of members ranking the ethical issue as the most serious facing their local market. 36

37 PLEASE RANK THE FOLLOWING ETHICAL ISSUES FACING YOUR LOCAL MARKET IN THE COMING YEAR IN ORDER OF THE MOST SERIOUS TO THE LEAST SERIOUS* Mis-selling by financial advisers Market fraud Market trading practices Integrity of financial reporting Disclosure/use of financial derivatives *Chart displaying proportion of members ranking the ethical issue as the most serious facing local markets Note: Response options displayed are limited to those with relevant trending data. 37

38 PLEASE RANK THE FOLLOWING ETHICAL ISSUES FACING GLOBAL MARKETS IN THE COMING YEAR (2015) IN ORDER OF THE MOST SERIOUS TO THE LEAST SERIOUS* GLOBAL AMER APAC EMEA Market fraud Integrity of financial reporting Market trading practices Misaligned incentives of investment management services *Chart displaying proportion of members ranking the ethical issue as the most serious facing global markets. Mis-selling by financial advisers Disclosure/use of financial derivatives 38

39 PLEASE RANK THE FOLLOWING ETHICAL ISSUES FACING GLOBAL MARKETS IN THE COMING YEAR (2014) IN ORDER OF THE MOST SERIOUS TO THE LEAST SERIOUS* Market fraud Market trading practices Mis-selling by financial advisers Integrity of financial reporting Misaligned incentives of investment management services Disclosure/use of financial derivatives HONG KONG 3 UNITED KINGDOM 2 1 USA 2 31% JAPAN CANADA CHINA 2 2 GERMANY 2 1 FRANCE 2 BRAZIL 2 NETHERLANDS 2 1 1% SOUTH AFRICA SWITZERLAND 2 SINGAPORE 2 AUSTRALIA 2 INDIA *Chart displaying proportion of members ranking the ethical issue as the most serious facing local markets 39

40 PLEASE RANK THE FOLLOWING ETHICAL ISSUES FACING GLOBAL MARKETS IN THE COMING YEAR IN ORDER OF THE MOST SERIOUS TO THE LEAST SERIOUS* Market fraud Integrity of financial reporting Market trading practices Mis-selling by financial advisers *Chart displaying proportion of members ranking the ethical issue as the most serious facing local markets Note: Response options displayed are those with relevant trending data available. Disclosure/use of financial derivatives 40

41 MARKET STRUCTURE Globally Effective Risk Oversight Wanted. CFA Institute

42 WHICH ONE OF THE FOLLOWING REGULATORY OR INDUSTRY ACTIONS IS MOST NEEDED GLOBALLY IN THE COMING YEAR (2015) TO HELP IMPROVE INVESTOR TRUST AND MARKET INTEGRITY? GLOBAL AMER APAC EMEA 40% Improved regulation and oversight of global systemic risk Improved transparency of financial reporting and other corporate disclosures Improved corporate governance practices Improved enforcement of existing laws and regulations Improved market trading rules on transparency and frequency of trades Improved auditing practice and standards 42

43 WHICH ONE OF THE FOLLOWING REGULATORY OR INDUSTRY ACTIONS IS MOST NEEDED GLOBALLY IN THE COMING YEAR (2015) TO HELP IMPROVE INVESTOR TRUST AND MARKET INTEGRITY?* Improved regulation and oversight of global systemic risk Improved transparency of financial reporting and other corporate disclosures Improved corporate governance practices Improved enforcement of existing laws and regulations Improved market trading rules on transparency and frequency of trades Improved auditing practice and standards GLOBAL AUSTRALIA BRAZIL CANADA CHINA FRANCE GERMANY HONG KONG INDIA JAPAN NETHERLANDS SINGAPORE SOUTH AFRICA SWITZERLAND UNITED KINGDOM USA % 2 33% % % 3% *Chart displaying proportion of members ranking the industry action most needed. 43

44 IN YOUR OPINION, IS EACH OF THE FOLLOWING REGULATORY REFORMS MORE LIKELY TO: Scale: Have no impact, Prevent future financial crises, Result in unintended negative consequences, and No opinion Prevent future financial crises Result in unintended negative consequences Reduce reliance on and reference to credit-rating agency ratings 2 3 Designate Non-Bank SIFIs 33% 4 Increased bank capital and liquidity requirements 33% 5 Better risk disclosure 6 Increased global coordination of monitoring of systemic risks 6 Require banks to impair troubled credit holdings on a more consistent and timely basis 6 Better bank board risk management 6 Have no Impact option not displayed No opinion option excluded 44

45 WHICH ONE OF THE FOLLOWING REGULATORY OR INDUSTRY ACTIONS IS MOST NEEDED IN YOUR LOCAL MARKET FOR THE COMING YEAR (2015) TO HELP IMPROVE INVESTOR TRUST AND MARKET INTEGRITY? AMER APAC EMEA 31% Improved regulation and oversight of global systemic risk Improved transparency of financial reporting and other corporate disclosures Improved corporate governance practices Improved enforcement of existing laws and regulations Improved market trading rules on transparency and frequency of trades Improved auditing practice and standards 45

46 WHICH ONE OF THE FOLLOWING REGULATORY OR INDUSTRY ACTIONS IS MOST NEEDED IN YOUR LOCAL MARKET FOR THE COMING YEAR (2015) TO HELP IMPROVE INVESTOR TRUST AND MARKET INTEGRITY? Improved regulation and oversight of global systemic risk Improved transparency of financial reporting and other corporate disclosures Improved corporate governance practices Improved enforcement of existing laws and regulations Improved market trading rules on transparency and frequency of trades Improved auditing practice and standards AUSTRALIA BRAZIL CANADA CHINA FRANCE GERMANY HONG KONG INDIA JAPAN NETHERLANDS SINGAPORE SOUTH AFRICA SWITZERLAND UNITED KINGDOM USA 3% 2 2 3% % % 31% % 3% 46

47 ABOUT THIS STUDY CFA Institute

48 ABOUT THIS SURVEY The CFA Institute Global Market Sentiment Survey was created to seek input from CFA Institute members and gather feedback on market sentiment, performance, and market integrity issues, and to further our mission of promoting ethical and trustworthy investment markets. METHODOLOGY An online survey was conducted from 14 to 28 October All CFA Institute members globally were invited to participate in the survey; 5,259 responded, for an overall response rate of and a margin of error of ±1.3%. Note: Total percentage of some charts in this report may not add up to 100% due to rounding 48

49 RESPONDENT PROFILE TOP MARKETS # OF RESPONDENTS USA 1,956 CANADA 572 UNITED KINGDOM 264 CHINA 144 INDIA 143 GERMANY 139 SWITZERLAND AMERICAS (AMER) 30% EUROPE, MIDDLE EAST & AFRICA (EMEA) 1 ASIA PACIFIC (APAC) SOUTH AFRICA 131 FRANCE 123 HONG KONG 111 AUSTRALIA 108 NETHERLANDS 102 SINGAPORE 102 JAPAN 94 BRAZIL 79 49

50 RESPONDENT PROFILE Years In Industry 5 years 6 to 10 years 11 to 15 years 16 to 20 years > 20 years Not Applicable 33% Primary Investment Practice (Top 5) 1 3% 3% Equities Fixed Income Private Equity Derivatives Real Estate Job Function (Top 5) 33% 1 Portfolio Manager Research Analyst Consultant Financial Advisor Chief-Level Executive 50

51 ABOUT CFA INSTITUTE CFA Institute is the global association of investment professionals that sets the standard for professional excellence and credentials. The organization is a champion for ethical behavior in investment markets and a respected source of knowledge in the global financial community. The end goal: to create an environment where investors interests come first, markets function at their best, and economies grow. CFA Institute has members in 140 countries and territories, including 110,000 CFA charterholders, and 140 member societies. For more information, visit QUESTIONS? Media inquiries: J.D. McCartney Director, Public Relations, The Americas jd.mccartney@cfainstitute.org LEARN MORE ABOUT THIS STUDY ON OUR WEBSITE AT: Survey inquiries: Prashant Goswami Analyst, Market Intelligence MarketIntel@cfainstitute.org 51