Should I Stay or Should I Go
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1 We will generally put trades on with approximately 45 DTE. With this in mind, is there any way we can figure out if our trade has reached a high percentage of max profit relabve to our days held? 1 of 9
2 To test this, we sold 45 DTE 1SD strangles on the first of every month from January 2013 to present. We computed the average P/L for each day in all of the strangles. We were then able to plot a regression line to show the average number of days it takes to reach certain profit percentages. 2 of 9
3 3 of 9
4 As we can see from the graph, we achieved close to 50% of max profit 19 days into the trade. This represents 50% of the profit in 42% of the Bme as shown below: 4 of 9
5 19 Days of observed data to reach 50% of max profit 5 of 9
6 We consolidated this data into a table to give us an idea of how long we might expect to sit in a trade to achieve a certain percentage of max profit. 6 of 9
7 7 of 9
8 With this, we looked to provide an answer to a frequent viewer quesbon. For example: If I have a trade that has reached 30% of max profit in 8 days, should I close the posibon or wait for 50%? 8 of 9
9 As you can see, if you have reached 30% of max profit axer 8 days, you should manage your posibon and look to redeploy your capital. 9 of 9
10 DISCLAIMER: The purpose of this material is to demonstrate market trading techniques and strategies designed to give you the skills and confidence to manage your own investments. The risk of loss in trading securibes, opbons, futures and forex can be substanbal. You must consider all relevant risk factors, including your own personal financial situabon, before trading. OpBons involve risk and are not suitable for all investors. You are assuming the enbre risk of any and all trades placed in the stock market. Due to the Bme- cribcal nature of trading, the varying fees charged by brokerages, and the acbvity of other market parbcipants, tastytrade cannot guarantee that similar trades you place will mirror the exact performance of the tastytrade por\olio. tastytrade is not a licensed financial advisor, registered investment advisor, registered broker- dealer or FINRA SIPC NFA- member firm. tastytrade does not provide investment or financial advice or make investment recommendabons. tastytrade is not in the business of transacbng trades, nor does tastytrade agree to direct your commodity accounts or give trading advice tailored to your parbcular situabon. Nothing contained in tastytrade s por\olio demonstrabon consbtutes a solicitabon, recommendabon, promobon, or endorsement of any parbcular security, other investment product, transacbon or investment. BY USING THE TASTYTRADE WEB SITE AND ACCESSING THE TASTYTRADE MATERIALS, YOU AGREE, AT ALL TIMES, TO INDEMNIFY, DEFEND, AND HOLD TASTYTRADE (INCLUDING ANY OF ITS AFFILIATES, OR ITS RESPECTIVE SUCCESSORS AND ASSIGNS, OR ANY OF ITS RESPECTIVE OFFICERS, DIRECTORS, EMPLOYEES, AGENTS, REPRESENTATIVES, LICENSORS, OPERATIONAL SERVICE PROVIDERS, ADVERTISERS, OR SUPPLIERS) HARMLESS FROM AND AGAINST ANY AND ALL CLAIMS, ACTIONS, DEMANDS, SUITS, LOSSES AND COSTS (INCLUDING ATTORNEYS FEES) RESULTING FROM TRADES YOU PLACE IN THE MARKET. TASTYTRADE SHALL NOT BE LIABLE FOR ANY LOSS OR DAMAGE, OF ANY KIND, DIRECT OR INDIRECT, IN CONNECTION WITH OR ARISING FROM USE OF EDUCATIONAL SERVICES PROVIDED AS PART OF THIS PORTFOLIO DEMONSTRATION.
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