The Future Is Here By S. Kumar, Saudi Arabia

Transcription

1 The Future Is Here By S. Kumar, Saudi Arabia Reuters The September announcement by Saudi Stock Exchange to launch exchange-traded derivatives in 2019 has a potential to attract foreign investors in the fast-changing Saudi capital market. However, there is so much to be done before the Kingdom becomes an investment hotspot. For the last couple of years, the Saudi Arabian capital market has been in the midst of fundamental reforms. In the latest development, the Saudi Stock Exchange (Tadawul) -- the Middle East s largest stock market with a capitalization of around $500 billion and 200 listed companies for trading -- announced what was widely anticipated by market experts and investors. Tadawul said it would introduce exchange-traded derivatives in the first half of 2019 and launch an index futures contract based on the tradable index jointly developed with the global index provider MSCI. The decision follows a series of market enhancement measures introduced by Tadawul and the Capital Market Authority (CMA, the Kingdom s capital market regulator), as the Kingdom is opening up to more foreign investments as part of the Vision 2030 consisting of an economic diversification strategy. Easing Access for Foreigners The decision to launch index futures in the first half of 2019 is a tipping point in the development of Saudi Arabia s capital market. The announcement comes after global index providers, such as MSCI and FTSE Russell, upgraded Saudi Arabia s stock index to Emerging Market category this year-- a status already enjoyed by two of its peers in the Arabian Gulf, namely UAE and Qatar. Not only because the timing of the launch in the first half of 2019 perfectly matches with Tadawul s inclusion in twin global indices, viz., MSCI s Emerging Market Index and FTSE Global Equity Index Series, the launch of sophisticated financial products such as derivatives will be a milestone in catapulting Saudi Arabia in the developed capital market club. Furthermore, the launch also needs to be looked at in the context of the Kingdom making efforts to gradually liberalize its foreign ownership restrictions and as the Saudi capital market is gradually aligning with global markets. According to the latest report by Tadawul, the total ownership of foreign in- 10 TRENDS Fall 2018

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3 shutterstock vestors stood at 5.06% of the total market capitalization as of 30 August 2018, decreasing 0.05% from the previous month. Out of the 200 companies listed in the Saudi Stock Exchange, only 9 companies have total foreign ownership that exceeds 30%, and 17 companies have foreign ownership between 10%-30%, leaving only 13% of the listed companies having total foreign ownership that exceeds 10%. Market analysts hope that the introduction of derivatives will facilitate wider and increased participation from foreign investors. Wider and increased participation from foreign investors will add stability to the market, which so far has been dominated by retail investors, MR Raghu, Managing Director, Marmore Mena Intelligence said. Adding More Depth The inclusions in twin indices next year are expected by Riyadh-based Jadwa Investment to bring in a minimum of $15 billion in passive inflows by the end of 2019 in Saudi Arabia. But much of that money would come in only when Saudi equity markets would offer diverse product offering and hedging tools such as derivatives to foreign investors. It is precisely this very nature of derivatives that Tadawul s CEO Khalid Al Hussan highlighted while announcing the decision in Riyadh, the launch of a derivatives market is the natural next step towards an advanced capital market. Derivatives enable efficient price discovery of our securities in the home market. Though Saudi Arabia had already introduced in 2008 equity swap agreements (a type of financial derivative) and in 2017 securities borrowing and lending and covered short-selling to attract local and global investors, a full-fledged derivative instrument incorporating futures and options that would serve to deepen market functionality has been absent until now. The launch of index futures next year is expected to fill this gap. But Saudi Arabia is not alone in the race to introduce derivative products in the Arabian Gulf. Its neighboring bourses in Abu Dhabi and Kuwait are also eyeing the launch of a derivatives market in the near future. And there are reasons for that! The decision to introduce derivatives trading holds immense significance for the Kingdom, where liquidity is thin and volatility is higher due to the dominance of individual or retail investors. Derivatives are expected to add more depth 12 TRENDS Fall 2018

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5 How Exchange-Traded Derivatives Work An exchange traded derivative is a standardized contract that is traded on a regulated exchange and whose value is based on the value of another asset. Each contract has a fixed expiration date and will be for the same amount of quantity. These financial instruments have become increasingly popular because of their inherent advantages, such as standardization, liquidity and elimination of default risk. Futures and options are two of the most popular exchange traded derivatives. These derivatives can be used to hedge exposure or speculate on a wide range of financial assets like commodities, equities, currencies and even interest rates. shutterstock by bringing in more foreign investors (especially institutional), enhance liquidity and reduce volatility in the Saudi equity market. (Please refer to How Exchange-Traded Derivatives Work ). The introduction of derivatives is part of the Vision 2030 Financial Sector Development Program. This reflects Tadawul s ongoing commitment to create new opportunities for investors and to increase institutional investors participation in the Saudi market, Tadawul s Al Hussan said. The dominance of local retail investors in Tadawul s trading activity is much higher in proportion of traded volumes when compared to other large market indices, such as India and the US. Since retail investors tend to have larger risk appetites, have shorter investment horizons and engage in speculative trading compared to their institutional counterparts, their prevalence leaves the benchmark Tadawul All Share Index or TASI more volatile over a shorter time horizon. A research by Jadwa Investment shows that TASI s 10-trading day volatility is at 2.3 times the volatility of the S&P 500 Index and 1.7 times the volatility of the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE). Institutional investors, on the other hand, tend to have longer term investment horizons and play an important role in developing capital markets. As Saudi capital market is moving towards better alignment with global best practices, it has to have therefore more institutional investors in the same way as in developed stock markets. The introduction of exchange-traded derivatives to the Saudi market will help in improving market efficiency, providing risk management tools to investors and giving more insights about future prices, said Mahitab Ashmawi, VP Asset Management, Al Masah Capital. Cause for Concern A central issue is that despite the wave of structural reforms introduced in the Sau- di capital market, there are still internal and external hurdles (such as regional geopolitical tensions) coming in the way of enhancing investor participation and liquidity in the domestic market. As Raghu of Marmore Mena Intelligence explains, There are certain areas such as openness to foreign ownership, market infrastructure including transferability, stock lending and short trading which still require improvements to meet the international standards. Further improving the transparency and corporate disclosure will definitely add to investors confidence into the Saudi capital market thereby enhancing the liquidity and provide continued capital inflow. Adds Josef Schuster, Founder and CEO, IPOX Schuster, LLC, Chicago, With the large inflow in passive funds focusing on emerging markets, the Saudi capital market would need to make a more transparent, efficient, and global-recognized capital market. 14 TRENDS Fall 2018

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