GLOBAL INVESTMENT IN INFRASTRUCTURE: THE ROLE OF OIL EXPORTERS

Save this PDF as:
 WORD  PNG  TXT  JPG

Size: px
Start display at page:

Download "GLOBAL INVESTMENT IN INFRASTRUCTURE: THE ROLE OF OIL EXPORTERS"

Transcription

1 GLOBAL INVESTMENT IN INFRASTRUCTURE: THE ROLE OF OIL EXPORTERS Shahrokh Fardoust, Ph.D. Research Professor, College of William and Mary President, International Economic Consultants, LLC Building Bridges: Engaging the Institutional Investor in Global Infrastructure Symposium K&L Gates and SovereigNET of the Fletcher School Washington DC, October 7, 2014

2 2 Outline* *Based on ongoing research with Dr. Eliot Kalter Context: Global Economic Situation 2014 Key megatrends that Underpin the Dynamics of the Global Economy in the Next Two Decades Faster and more sustainable global growth requires more and better quality infrastructure But infrastructure financing by banks has been curtailed as part of a deleveraging process Oil Exporters continue to have massive current account surpluses and need to continue to recycle their petrodollars to avoid a global recession Oil & Gas-based Sovereign Wealth Funds allocations to infrastructure investments have been modest so far, but could grow in future Oil exporters are vulnerable to sharp declines in oil prices Concluding remarks

3 3 1. Context: Global Economic Situation in 2014 Global economic growth remains in low gear, and an uneven and moderate recovery continues. Only a modest pick up is foreseen in Advanced economies are growing again, though their recovery remains fragile. Emerging market & developing countries are likely to continue to have relatively strong growth in the latter half of 2014 and 2015, though still lower than before the crisis due to tighter global financial conditions. Overall, world growth is expected to accelerate in 2014 to about 3.5% compared with 3% in 2013, with some acceleration in world trade growth expected to around 4.5%. But there are downside risks due to sudden corrections in financial markets, and to rising geopolitical tensions (Ukraine, Middle East, East Asia). At current levels, growth is too weak to significantly improve the situation of workers worldwide. In many economies, unemployment remains high. Almost 202 million people were unemployed in 2013 worldwide, an increase of 5 million compared with Youth continue to be particularly affected by the weak growth. Yet, there is ample evidence G20, IMF, World Bank - that growth in advanced economies, as well as in emerging and developing economies, could be accelerated through increases in infrastructure investments. Inadequate long-term financing and weak business climate, including inadequate policy & regulatory frameworks, continue to be the main obstacles to more infrastructure outlays.

4 2. Key megatrends and the dynamics of the global economy in the medium-term The pace of global economic growth is likely to be slower and unemployment higher in the next decade than in the previous two, due to demographic, structural, and technological changes that render manufacturing more capital and skill intensive. The rapid convergence phase in the world economy during the last two decades was associated with a surge in world trade in goods and services, ushering in an era of hyper-globalization. After the global crisis, globalization-reversing forces have set in. The rapid globalization led to substantial increases in financial interdependence and the monetization of national economies over the last two decades. Financial development has had a positive impact on economic growth at adequate levels of financial depth, but this effect has vanished since the crisis. Population growth rates have plummeted in most world regions. But due to population momentum, Asia s share of the world population will rise, and Africa s share will rise even more, as a result of its late demographic transition. The world population will increase by about 2.2 billion people, to about 8.3 billion by Continuing rapid urbanization, particularly in Asia and Africa, will mean that urban population will rise from about half of the world population to two-thirds by there will be a massive increase for infrastructure service. 4

5 2. Key megatrends continued 5 Current patterns of energy and resource use, agricultural practices, and urbanization will lead to risks of increased costs and decreased productivity that will reduce growth, with sharp unpredictable threshold effects possible, with much of the costs of resource depletion falling on the bottom half of the income distribution. Massive infrastructure deficits are increasingly affecting productivity and thus firms ability to compete in domestic and international markets. The unreliability of existing infrastructure also reduces firms profitability and ability to invest and expand in both advanced and developing economies. The rapid expansion of the middle class in most emerging economies from about 800 million in 2010 to more than 1.9 billion in 2030, with concomitant increases in demands on infrastructure and natural resources. The official governance of the global market is increasing inadequate in representing and protecting the bottom half of the world s population, who live on just $3 a day in the developing world. It is inadequate to manage collective action to deal with climate change or further liberalization of international trade to reduce protection against exports of poorer developing countries. Source: Towards a Better Global Economy Allen, Behrman, Birdsall, Fardoust, Rodrik, Steer, and Subramanian (Oxford University Press 2014)

6 3. Faster and more sustainable global growth requires more and better quality infrastructure Estimates of the world s overall infrastructure investment needs for energy, road and rail transport, telecommunications and water are in the range of $50-70 trillion through to 2030 compared with the $38 trillion spent globally on such investments over the past two decades. The global infrastructure investment gap is currently in the region of $1 trillion per year. Current outlays on infrastructure in developing countries is about $0.7 trillion per year; nearly 65% is financed by domestic budget, with the rest provided by private sector, ODA, World Bank and Regional Development Banks and to a limited extent by other sources, including SWFs. Yet, there is substantial infrastructure deficit. Infrastructure outlays in emerging and developing countries needs to be doubled to $1.5 -$1.8 trillion per year (to 6.5% of GDP); annual infrastructure spending in advanced economies needs to be raised by 1% of GDP (to 4%) to about $1.6 trillion. An additional $200-$250 billion annual capex is required by developing countries to make their infrastructure investments environmentally sustainable. 6

7 3. Status of Infrastructure Needs and Financing Varies Across Developing Regions Source: World Bank and IFC (2012) 7

8 3. Reaching Infrastructure and other Sustainable Development Goals in developing countries requires an additional $2.5 trillion a year in investments (Trillions of US dollar) Source: UNCTAD,

9 4. Infrastructure investments can be transformational in developing countries and growth could be boosted 9

10 4. But infrastructure financing by banks has been curtailed as part of a deleveraging process Source: Canuto (2014), Infrastructure Journal 10

11 4. Current and Potential Allocation of EM Institutional Investors to EM Infrastructure build up over time Source: Based on World Bank Group Staff paper for the G20 Investment and Infrastructure Working Group 11 OECD Institutional Investors Emerging Market Institutional Investors Sovereign Wealth Funds (Sept. 2014) EM pension reserve and social security funds AUM USD $ Current Investment in EMDE Infrastructure 79 trillion + <1% = total leading investors c10% most in domestic markets 4.5 trillion NB growth potential e.g. EM pension funds currently $2.5 trillion AUM estimated to rise to $17.4 trillion by 2050 Even more limited than leading OECD investors Chilean pension funds 1.5% Potential Investment in EMDE Infrastructure 1% assets = $750 billion 1% assets = c$50 billion 6.8 trillion 0-5% c5% assets = c%250-$340 billion 1 trillion Limited ad hoc examples (up to 10%) 10% assets = c$100 billion

12 5. Oil exporters [and Europe (Germany)] continue to have massive current account surpluses (percent of world GDP) 12

13 5. Key channels for recycling petrodollars have worked so far (billions of US dollar) 13 Source: Fardoust (2012) 2,250 2,000 Value in Billions of U.S. Dollars 1,750 1,500 1,250 1, imports of goods and services change in reserves gross investment outflows workers' remittance outflows

14 5. Oil and Gas based SWFs account for 60% of all SWFs, and GCC SWFs account for 36% of all SWFs 14 Sovereign Wealth Funds of Oil Exporting Countries*in Middle East (GCC) (US $ Billions, as of September 2014) UAE: Abu-Dhabi Investment Authority $773 Saudi Arabia; SAMA Foreign Holdings $757 Total GCC SWFs:= $ billion Kuwait Investment Authority $410 Total oil and gas related SWFs= $ billion Qatar Investment Authority $170 Total SWFs= $6831 Billion UAE-Abu Dhabi: Investment Council $90 GCC SWFs/Total oil and gas SWFs=60 % UAE Dubai Investment Cooperation of $70 Total oil and gas SWFs/Total SWFs=60% UAE-Abu Dhabi International Petroleum Investment Co. UAE Abu Dhabi Mubadala Development Community $ Source: Sovereign Wealth Fund Institute, 2014 All figures rounded to the nearest whole number except in those cases where the amount was less than $1 billion.

15 5. GCC s large CA surplus and rising foreign assets could contribute to the global and regional infrastructure financing needs? Source for data and chart: IIF (2013) 15

16 6. SWFs Are Making Some Investments in Infrastructure Source: B20 Panel of Six International Accounting Networks June

17 6. Diverse investment objectives, but there is little information about the exact investment vehicle used 17 Source: OECD, World Bank

18 6. Oil & Gas exporters SWFs Asset Allocations Tend to Deal with Dual Risks of Currency and Oil Price Volatility Public disclosure of investment management strategy varies widely between SWFs, but overall is limited and lacks full transparency. Oil and gas- based SWFs have typically a long term approach to investment decisions and a preference for equity and alternative investments, but may tend to diversify risk by investing in financial assets with low correlation with their revenue stream from energy exports and hedge the risks of currency and oil/gas price volatility with increased investment allocations to financial assets. Based on what is known, around four-fifths of oil & gas-exporting countries funds are invested in overseas assets, as a part of strategy to boost yields while remaining diversified. Equity investments account for nearly a half of their overseas investments, followed by fixed income with a quarter, bank deposits 15% and the rest in alternative assets. Investments in infrastructure projects has up to now averaged less than 8-10%, but the percentage may vary significantly across funds. Recent trends indicate some funds by oil exporters SWFs are being invested in emerging economies and in their domestic markets. 18

19 7. But the global slowdown in growth could adversely affect oil exporters bop buffers, as well as fiscal balances and domestic social programs 19

20 7. Although GCC countries have strong fiscal and balance of payments positions, they are vulnerable to sharp declines in oil prices Source: IMF Article IV report for Saudi Arabia (2014) 20

21 8. Concluding Remarks 21 Global economy needs a significant stimulus to regain its dynamism, generate jobs and reduce poverty. A number of recent studies (including by G20 and IMF) indicate that an increase in physical infrastructure stocks raises GDP growth over the short- and medium-term. Moreover, increases in environmentally sustainable infrastructure investments would make countries economies more resilient to climate change and natural disasters. Oil exporter can make a meaningful contributions by gradually increasing their participation in the financing of infrastructure projects at the regional and global level. By finding innovative ways to finance the massive infrastructure needs at both global and regional levels, oil exporting countries with SWFs might be able to become more effective in recycling their excess reserves, and also contribute to global growth and employment generation, and ultimately to social and political stability in their region. However, this requires improved investment climates in the recipient countries, as well as strengthening of their policy & regulatory frameworks.

OIL-EXPORTING COUNTRIES: KEY STRUCTURAL FEATURES, ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS AND OIL REVENUE RECYCLING

OIL-EXPORTING COUNTRIES: KEY STRUCTURAL FEATURES, ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS AND OIL REVENUE RECYCLING OIL-EXPORTING COUNTRIES: KEY STRUCTURAL FEATURES, ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS AND OIL REVENUE RECYCLING This article reviews key structural features and recent economic developments in ten major oilexporting

More information

Sovereign Wealth Funds Asset Allocation in the Wake of the Global Financial Crisis

Sovereign Wealth Funds Asset Allocation in the Wake of the Global Financial Crisis Sovereign Wealth Funds Asset Allocation in the Wake of the Global Financial Crisis Eliot Kalter President, E M Strategies Senior Fellow, The Fletcher School EKalter@EMStrategies.com June 2009 Sovereign

More information

A STUDY OF TRADE SURPLUSES: ASSESSING ALTERNATIVE STRATEGIES FOR RESERVE MANAGEMENT

A STUDY OF TRADE SURPLUSES: ASSESSING ALTERNATIVE STRATEGIES FOR RESERVE MANAGEMENT A STUDY OF TRADE SURPLUSES: ASSESSING ALTERNATIVE STRATEGIES FOR RESERVE MANAGEMENT Student Contributors: Shashank Shekhar, Supriya Shailesh Sehgal Abstract Some nations today have accumulated huge reserves

More information

The Geoeconomics of. Sovereign Wealth Funds and Renewable Energy

The Geoeconomics of. Sovereign Wealth Funds and Renewable Energy The Geoeconomics of Sovereign Wealth Funds and Renewable Energy Towards a New Energy Paradigm in the Euro-Mediterranean region By Simone Tagliapietra Researcher, FEEM, Italy The world will go through a

More information

eregionaloutlooksincharts

eregionaloutlooksincharts eregionaloutlooksincharts (clickonregion) EastAsiaandPaci c EuropeandCentralAsia LatinAmericaandtheCaribbean MiddleEastandNorthAfrica SouthAsia Sub-SaharanAfrica The Economic Outlook for East Asia and

More information

Economic Research KDN No.: PP14787/11/2012(030811)

Economic Research KDN No.: PP14787/11/2012(030811) wider Economic Research KDN No.: PP14787/11/2012(030811) Vol.: ER/014/2015 State of Kuwait: Country Risk Insights Economic Research Led By: Nor Zahidi Alias Chief Economist +603 2082 2277 zahidi@marc.com.my

More information

International Monetary and Financial Committee

International Monetary and Financial Committee International Monetary and Financial Committee Thirty-Third Meeting April 16, 2016 IMFC Statement by Angel Gurría Secretary-General The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) IMF

More information

an eye on east asia and pacific

an eye on east asia and pacific 67887 East Asia and Pacific Economic Management and Poverty Reduction an eye on east asia and pacific 7 by Ardo Hansson and Louis Kuijs The Role of China for Regional Prosperity China s global and regional

More information

Chinese Economy. YU Jianwei Commercial Counsellor Chinese Consulate General in Toronto

Chinese Economy. YU Jianwei Commercial Counsellor Chinese Consulate General in Toronto Chinese Economy YU Jianwei Commercial Counsellor Chinese Consulate General in Toronto Chinese Economy Slowing down or Picking up Growth 7.7% (first 3 months) 7.5% in April-June Slowest in 13 years Economic

More information

Introduction to SAUDI ARABIA

Introduction to SAUDI ARABIA Introduction to SAUDI ARABIA Saudi Arabia is the world s largest oil producer and exporter with almost one-fifth of the word s proven oil reserves. Benefiting from abundant and cheap energy, the industrial

More information

The ENCA region: Vulnerability and Resilience. Lúcio Vinhas de Souza, Sovereign Chief Economist

The ENCA region: Vulnerability and Resilience. Lúcio Vinhas de Souza, Sovereign Chief Economist The ENCA region: Vulnerability and Resilience Lúcio Vinhas de Souza, Sovereign Chief Economist Rated Sovereigns in the ENCA region» Moody s only rates 8 of the 12 ENCA (or CIS) countries: Armenia, Azerbaijan,

More information

Economic Projections for

Economic Projections for Economic Projections for 2015-2017 Article published in the Quarterly Review 2015:3, pp. 86-91 7. ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR 2015-2017 Outlook for the Maltese economy 1 The Bank s latest macroeconomic projections

More information

Prospects for global macroeconomic development

Prospects for global macroeconomic development vii Executive summary Prospects for global macroeconomic development As headwinds from the global financial crisis subside, policymakers have more scope to tackle longer-term issues that hold back sustainable

More information

International Monetary and Financial Committee

International Monetary and Financial Committee International Monetary and Financial Committee Thirty-Seventh Meeting April 20 21, 2018 Statement No. 37-23 Statement by Mr. Loukal Algeria On behalf of Islamic Republic of Afghanistan, Algeria, Ghana,

More information

SEB MERCHANT BANKING COUNTRY RISK ANALYSIS 28 September 2016

SEB MERCHANT BANKING COUNTRY RISK ANALYSIS 28 September 2016 SEB MERCHANT BANKING COUNTRY RISK ANALYSIS 28 September 2016 Higher foreign reserves and lower financing needs following the debt restructuring in 2015 have reduced external vulnerability. In addition,

More information

Speaking Points for the Gaidar Forum Economic Perspective for Europe and Russia

Speaking Points for the Gaidar Forum Economic Perspective for Europe and Russia Speaking Points for the Gaidar Forum Economic Perspective for Europe and Russia It is my pleasure and honor to take part in this panel to discuss the economic perspectives for Europe and Russia. Given

More information

SWFs: Inward vs. Outward Investment Mandates Conditions for Success

SWFs: Inward vs. Outward Investment Mandates Conditions for Success SWFs: Inward vs. Outward Investment Mandates Conditions for Success Eliot Kalter President of EM Strategies Co-Head, SovereigNET: Fletcher Network for Sovereign Wealth and Global Capital ekalter@emstrategies.com

More information

International Monetary and Financial Committee

International Monetary and Financial Committee International Monetary and Financial Committee Twenty-Eighth Meeting October 12, 2013 Statement by Olli Rehn, Vice-President, European Commission On behalf of the European Commission Statement by Vice-President

More information

MCCI ECONOMIC OUTLOOK. Novembre 2017

MCCI ECONOMIC OUTLOOK. Novembre 2017 MCCI ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2018 Novembre 2017 I. THE INTERNATIONAL CONTEXT The global economy is strengthening According to the IMF, the cyclical turnaround in the global economy observed in 2017 is expected

More information

BOX 1.3. Recent Developments in Emerging and Developing Country Labor Markets

BOX 1.3. Recent Developments in Emerging and Developing Country Labor Markets BOX 1.3 Recent Developments in Emerging and Developing Country Labor Markets GLOBAL ECONOMIC PROSPECTS JUNE 215 chapter 1 3 BOX 1.3 Recent Developments in Emerging and Developing Country Labor Markets

More information

Viet Nam GDP growth by sector Crude oil output Million metric tons 20

Viet Nam GDP growth by sector Crude oil output Million metric tons 20 Viet Nam This economy is weathering the global economic crisis relatively well due largely to swift and strong policy responses. The GDP growth forecast for 29 is revised up from that made in March and

More information

Economic Profile of Bhutan

Economic Profile of Bhutan Economic Profile of Bhutan Submitted to: Dr. Ahmed Tazmeen Assistant Professor, Department of Economics North South University Submitted By: Namgay Wangmo MPPG 6th Batch ID # 1612872085 Date of Submission:

More information

Chikahisa Sumi Director, Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific International Monetary Fund

Chikahisa Sumi Director, Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific International Monetary Fund Chikahisa Sumi Director, Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific International Monetary Fund (percent YOY) 8 6 Real GDP Growth ASSUMPTIONS A more gradual monetary policy normalization 4 2 21 211 212

More information

Middle East and North Africa Regional Economic Outlook

Middle East and North Africa Regional Economic Outlook Regional Economic Outlook Morocco Algeria Tunisia Libya Lebanon Egypt Syria Iraq Iran Jordan Saudi Kuwait Arabia Bahrain Afghanistan Pakistan Mauritania Sudan Djibouti Qatar Yemen Oman United Arab Emirates

More information

Evolution of the Middle East Trading Ecosystem. May 2013

Evolution of the Middle East Trading Ecosystem. May 2013 Evolution of the Middle East Trading Ecosystem May 2013 Contents Changing Supply/Demand Dynamics Changes Drive Trading Ecosystem Oman: Key to Crude Oil Markets Conclusion Dubai Mercantile Exchange 2 DME

More information

IMF forecasts India s GDP growth to improve from 6.7% in FY2018 to 7.4% in FY2019 : World Economic Outlook

IMF forecasts India s GDP growth to improve from 6.7% in FY2018 to 7.4% in FY2019 : World Economic Outlook All Members, IMF forecasts India s GDP growth to improve from 6.7% in FY2018 to 7.4% in FY2019 : World Economic Outlook International monetary fund (IMF) in its latest update on World Economic Outlook

More information

The euro area economy: an update Euro Challenge November 2016

The euro area economy: an update Euro Challenge November 2016 The euro area economy: an update Euro Challenge November 2016 Delegation of the European Union to the United States www.euro-challenge.org What this presentation will cover A. Update on the economic situation

More information

The Global Financial Crisis and its Impact on India s External Sector

The Global Financial Crisis and its Impact on India s External Sector MPRA Munich Personal RePEc Archive The Global Financial Crisis and its Impact on India s External Sector DR JOMON MATHEW SREENILAYAM Department of Economics, University College Trivandrum, Kerala, india

More information

Structural changes in the Maltese economy

Structural changes in the Maltese economy Structural changes in the Maltese economy Article published in the Annual Report 2014, pp. 72-76 BOX 4: STRUCTURAL CHANGES IN THE MALTESE ECONOMY 1 Since the global recession that took hold around the

More information

Dr. Raja M. Almarzoqi Albqami Institute of Diplomatic Studies

Dr. Raja M. Almarzoqi Albqami Institute of Diplomatic Studies Dr. Raja M. Almarzoqi Albqami Institute of Diplomatic Studies Rmarzoqi@gmail.com 3 nd Meeting of OECD-MENA Senior Budget Officials Network Dubai, United Arab Emirates, 31 October-1 November 2010 Oil Exporters

More information

Russia Economic Outlook

Russia Economic Outlook WELCOME Russia Economic Outlook Growth in Transition Chris Weafer Senior Partner, Macro-Advisory Ltd cjw@macro-advisory.com Growth in transition The economy recorded very rapid growth, averaging gabove

More information

OVERVIEW. The EU recovery is firming. Table 1: Overview - the winter 2014 forecast Real GDP. Unemployment rate. Inflation. Winter 2014 Winter 2014

OVERVIEW. The EU recovery is firming. Table 1: Overview - the winter 2014 forecast Real GDP. Unemployment rate. Inflation. Winter 2014 Winter 2014 OVERVIEW The EU recovery is firming Europe's economic recovery, which began in the second quarter of 2013, is expected to continue spreading across countries and gaining strength while at the same time

More information

Eurozone. EY Eurozone Forecast September 2014

Eurozone. EY Eurozone Forecast September 2014 Eurozone EY Eurozone Forecast September 2014 Austria Belgium Cyprus Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Ireland Italy Latvia Luxembourg Malta Netherlands Portugal Slovakia Slovenia Spain Outlook for

More information

Global Steel Market Outlook. OECD Steel Committee Meeting, Sep 28, 2017, Paris

Global Steel Market Outlook. OECD Steel Committee Meeting, Sep 28, 2017, Paris Global Steel Market Outlook OECD Steel Committee Meeting, Sep 28, 2017, Paris Disclaimer text This document is protected by copyright. Distribution to third parties or reproduction in any format is not

More information

JUNE 2015 EUROSYSTEM STAFF MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREA 1

JUNE 2015 EUROSYSTEM STAFF MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREA 1 JUNE 2015 EUROSYSTEM STAFF MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREA 1 1. EURO AREA OUTLOOK: OVERVIEW AND KEY FEATURES The June projections confirm the outlook for a recovery in the euro area. According

More information

The Canada-U.S. Income Gap

The Canada-U.S. Income Gap The Canada-U.S. Income Gap In the 1990s, the gap between and Canadian and American income levels widened significantly. Real personal income per capita in Canada fell 9 percentage points from 87.2 per

More information

South African Reserve Bank STATEMENT OF THE MONETARY POLICY COMMITTEE. Issued by Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank

South African Reserve Bank STATEMENT OF THE MONETARY POLICY COMMITTEE. Issued by Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank South African Reserve Bank PRESS STATEMENT EMBARGO DELIVERY 30 March 2017 STATEMENT OF THE MONETARY POLICY COMMITTEE Issued by Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank Since the previous

More information

Rebalancing Toward Sustainable Growth. Thomas M. Hoenig President and Chief Executive Officer Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City

Rebalancing Toward Sustainable Growth. Thomas M. Hoenig President and Chief Executive Officer Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Rebalancing Toward Sustainable Growth Thomas M. Hoenig President and Chief Executive Officer Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City The Rotary Club of Des Moines and the Greater Des Moines Partnership Des

More information

Economic projections

Economic projections Economic projections 2017-2020 December 2017 Outlook for the Maltese economy Economic projections 2017-2020 The pace of economic activity in Malta has picked up in 2017. The Central Bank s latest economic

More information

Oil Prices and the Global Economy. Steven B. Kamin Federal Reserve Board March 10, 2008

Oil Prices and the Global Economy. Steven B. Kamin Federal Reserve Board March 10, 2008 Oil Prices and the Global Economy Steven B. Kamin Federal Reserve Board March 10, 2008 1 2 Outline of talk Potential effects of rising oil prices on inflation and economic activity Address why effects

More information

Governor's Statement No. 30 October 7, Statement by the Hon. ZHOU XIAOCHUAN, Governor of the Fund for the PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF CHINA

Governor's Statement No. 30 October 7, Statement by the Hon. ZHOU XIAOCHUAN, Governor of the Fund for the PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF CHINA Governor's Statement No. 30 October 7, 2016 Statement by the Hon. ZHOU XIAOCHUAN, Governor of the Fund for the PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF CHINA Statement by the Hon. ZHOU Xiaochuan, Governor of the Fund for

More information

U.S. Economic Outlook: recent developments

U.S. Economic Outlook: recent developments U.S. Economic Outlook Recent developments Washington, D.C., 6 February 2018 This document was prepared by Helvia Velloso, Economic Affairs Officer, under the supervision of Inés Bustillo, Director, ECLAC

More information

THE LEBANESE ECONOMY IN 2016 BYBLOS BANK ECONOMIC RESEARCH AND ANALYSIS DEPARTMENT

THE LEBANESE ECONOMY IN 2016 BYBLOS BANK ECONOMIC RESEARCH AND ANALYSIS DEPARTMENT THE LEBANESE ECONOMY IN 2016 BYBLOS BANK ECONOMIC RESEARCH AND ANALYSIS DEPARTMENT ECONOMIC ACTIVITY Economic activity in Lebanon remained below potential in 2016, in line with the previous five years.

More information

The taxonomy of Sovereign Investment Funds

The taxonomy of Sovereign Investment Funds www.pwc.com/sovereignwealthfunds The taxonomy of Sovereign Investment Funds May 2015 SWF s operating in an evolving political environment The increasing influence and relevance of Sovereign Investors (SIs)

More information

Angola - Economic Report

Angola - Economic Report Angola - Economic Report Index I. Assumptions on National Policy and External Environment... 2 II. Recent Trends... 3 A. Real Sector Developments... 3 B. Monetary and Financial sector developments... 5

More information

Economic and market snapshot for January 2016

Economic and market snapshot for January 2016 From left to right: Herman van Papendorp (Head of Macro Research and Asset Allocation), Sanisha Packirisamy (Economist) Economic and market snapshot for January 2016 Global economic developments United

More information

How Important Are U.S. Capital Flows into Mexico?

How Important Are U.S. Capital Flows into Mexico? economic GOMMeiMTCIRY Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland December 1, 1994 How Important Are U.S. Capital Flows into Mexico? by William P. Osterberg In November 1993, the U.S. Congress voted to pass the

More information

Policy Alternatives for a Return to Full Employment in Spain

Policy Alternatives for a Return to Full Employment in Spain November 2013 Policy Alternatives for a Return to Full Employment in Spain By David Rosnick and Mark Weisbrot * Center for Economic and Policy Research 1611 Connecticut Ave. NW Suite 400 Washington, DC

More information

Saudi Arabian economy Moderation in 2013 and rebound in 2014

Saudi Arabian economy Moderation in 2013 and rebound in 2014 Research Department Md. Rahmatullah Khan, Economic analyst Tel: +966 1 211 9319, khanmr@alrajhi-capital.com Saudi Arabian economy Saudi Arabian economy Moderation in 2013 and rebound in 2014 Saudi Arabian

More information

Moderate but continued growth expected for global steel demand

Moderate but continued growth expected for global steel demand PRESS RELEASE Moderate but continued growth expected for global steel demand worldsteel Short Range Outlook October 2017 Brussels, 16 October 2017 - The World Steel Association (worldsteel) today released

More information

International Foreign Reserves

International Foreign Reserves International Foreign Reserves 29 International Foreign Reserves Solving the Global Reserve Problem The Asian financial crisis in 1997 marks an end to an era of unrestricted capital flows and unprecedented

More information

A Window of Opportunity

A Window of Opportunity M O N E T A R Y F U N D L N A I O A T R N T E I N The Managing Director s Global Policy Agenda Annual Meetings 2017 A Window of Opportunity THE MANAGING DIRECTOR S GLOBAL POLICY AGENDA A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY

More information

MACROECONOMIC FORECAST

MACROECONOMIC FORECAST MACROECONOMIC FORECAST Spring 17 Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Bulgaria Bulgarian economy is expected to expand by 3% in 17 driven by domestic demand. As compared to 16, the external sector will

More information

International Monetary and Financial Committee

International Monetary and Financial Committee International Monetary and Financial Committee Thirty-Sixth Meeting October 14, 2017 IMFC Statement by Guy Ryder Director-General International Labour Organization Summary Statement by Mr Guy Ryder, Director-General

More information

Øystein Olsen: The economic outlook

Øystein Olsen: The economic outlook Øystein Olsen: The economic outlook Address by Mr Øystein Olsen, Governor of Norges Bank (Central Bank of Norway), to invited foreign embassy representatives, Oslo, 29 March 2011. The address is based

More information

Business Environment: Russia

Business Environment: Russia Business Environment: Russia Euromonitor International 13 April 2010 Despite the economic recession of 2009, a recovery is expected in 2010. The business environment remains challenging due to over-regulation,

More information

Global and Regional Economic Developments and Policy Priorities in the Pacific

Global and Regional Economic Developments and Policy Priorities in the Pacific Global and Regional Economic Developments and Policy Priorities in the Pacific Chikahisa Sumi Director IMF Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific (OAP) Tokyo, Japan GLOBAL ACTIVITY STRENGTHENING, PFTAC

More information

The Balance of Payments

The Balance of Payments INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT Seventh Edition EUN / RESNICK 3-0 Copyright 2011 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. The Balance of Payments Chapter Objective: 3 Chapter Three INTERNATIONAL

More information

Saudi Budget 2010 FALCOM ECONOMIC RESEARCH. Snehdeep Fulzele Head of Research

Saudi Budget 2010 FALCOM ECONOMIC RESEARCH. Snehdeep Fulzele Head of Research FALCOM ECONOMIC RESEARCH Snehdeep Fulzele Head of Research +966 1 211 8455 Snehdeep.fulzele@falcom.com.sa FALCOM Financial Services P. O. Box 884 Riyadh 11421 Kingdom of Saudi Arabia Saudi Budget 2010

More information

Indonesia s Economic Outlook, Economic Challenges & Policy Responses

Indonesia s Economic Outlook, Economic Challenges & Policy Responses Indonesia s Economic Outlook, Economic Challenges & Policy Responses Muliaman D. Hadad, Ph.D Chairman, The Indonesian Financial Services Authority Prepared for Indonesia-Australia Business Week Financial

More information

Investment and its Financing: A Macro Perspective

Investment and its Financing: A Macro Perspective G R O U P O F T W E N T Y Investment and its Financing: A Macro Perspective Annex to the G Surveillance Note Meetings of G Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors February, 3 Prepared by Staff of

More information

Investor Relations Presentation December 2012

Investor Relations Presentation December 2012 Investor Relations Presentation December 2012 Contents 1. QNB at a Glance 2. QNB Comparative Positioning Qatar and MENA 3. Financial Highlights December 2012 4. Economic Overview 2 QNB at a Glance QNB

More information

Res. HJ13 A29b conomic Renewal. -Budget Papers. Tabled in the House of Commons by the Honourable Michael H. Wilson. Canada

Res. HJ13 A29b conomic Renewal. -Budget Papers. Tabled in the House of Commons by the Honourable Michael H. Wilson. Canada Res. HJ13 A29b 1987 conomic Renewal -Budget Papers. Tabled in the House of Commons by the Honourable Michael H. Wilson Canada Securing Economic Renewal Budget Papers The Economic Outlook and Fiscal Plan

More information

2017 Mid-Year Commercial Real Estate Outlook for Asia Pacific

2017 Mid-Year Commercial Real Estate Outlook for Asia Pacific 2017 Mid-Year Commercial Real Estate Outlook for Asia Pacific REAL ASSETS REAL ESTATE INVESTING TEAM INVESTMENT INSIGHT 2017 The global macroeconomic landscape continues its shift away from highly accommodative

More information

Potential Output in Denmark

Potential Output in Denmark 43 Potential Output in Denmark Asger Lau Andersen and Morten Hedegaard Rasmussen, Economics 1 INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY The concepts of potential output and output gap are among the most widely used concepts

More information

2 Macroeconomic Scenario

2 Macroeconomic Scenario The macroeconomic scenario was conceived as realistic and conservative with an effort to balance out the positive and negative risks of economic development..1 The World Economy and Technical Assumptions

More information

Presented at the Conference on China's Exchange Rate Policy, October 19, 2007, at the Peterson Institute, Washington, DC.

Presented at the Conference on China's Exchange Rate Policy, October 19, 2007, at the Peterson Institute, Washington, DC. A Scoreboard for Sovereign Wealth Funds Edwin M. Truman Senior Fellow Peterson Institute for International Economics Presented at the Conference on China's Exchange Rate Policy, October 19, 2007, at the

More information

Sovereign Wealth Funds

Sovereign Wealth Funds Sovereign Wealth Funds David Backus and Whitney Chamberlain Business & Politics Group NYU Stern School of Business March 5, 2008 NYU Stern School of Business Citigroup From the Wall Street Journal, Nov

More information

Notes Numbers in the text and tables may not add up to totals because of rounding. Unless otherwise indicated, years referred to in describing the bud

Notes Numbers in the text and tables may not add up to totals because of rounding. Unless otherwise indicated, years referred to in describing the bud CONGRESS OF THE UNITED STATES CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE The Budget and Economic Outlook: 4 to 4 Percentage of GDP 4 Surpluses Actual Projected - -4-6 Average Deficit, 974 to Deficits -8-974 979 984 989

More information

Chapter 22 (11) Developing Countries: Growth, Crisis, and Reform

Chapter 22 (11) Developing Countries: Growth, Crisis, and Reform Chapter 22 (11) Developing Countries: Growth, Crisis, and Reform Preview Snapshots of rich and poor countries Characteristics of poor countries Borrowing and debt in poor and middle-income economies The

More information

Global Macroeconomic Outlook March 2016

Global Macroeconomic Outlook March 2016 Prepared by Meketa Investment Group Global Economic Outlook Projections for global growth continue to be lowered, as the economic recovery in many countries remains weak. The IMF reduced their 206 global

More information

BCC UK Economic Forecast Q4 2015

BCC UK Economic Forecast Q4 2015 BCC UK Economic Forecast Q4 2015 David Kern, Chief Economist at the BCC The main purpose of the BCC Economic Forecast is to articulate a BCC view on economic topics that are relevant to our members, and

More information

American Association of Port Authorities 2015 Marine Terminal Management Training Paul Bingham, Economic Development Research Group

American Association of Port Authorities 2015 Marine Terminal Management Training Paul Bingham, Economic Development Research Group American Association of Port Authorities 2015 Marine Terminal Management Training Paul Bingham, Economic Development Research Group Long Beach, CA September 14, 2015 2 The Economic Forecast is for Slow

More information

Russian Federation. Recent Economic Developments and Challenges. October 2015 IMF MOSCOW OFFICE

Russian Federation. Recent Economic Developments and Challenges. October 2015 IMF MOSCOW OFFICE Russian Federation Recent Economic Developments and Challenges IMF MOSCOW OFFICE October 215 1 Outline Shocks affecting Russia s economy Policy Reaction: Monetary and Fiscal Policy Responses Current economic

More information

KEYNOTE SPEECH Deputy Governor of Bank Indonesia, Bp. Perry Warjiyo Ph.D at BNP Paribas Economic Outlook 2016 Jakarta, 23 March 2016

KEYNOTE SPEECH Deputy Governor of Bank Indonesia, Bp. Perry Warjiyo Ph.D at BNP Paribas Economic Outlook 2016 Jakarta, 23 March 2016 KEYNOTE SPEECH Deputy Governor of Bank Indonesia, Bp. Perry Warjiyo Ph.D at BNP Paribas Economic Outlook 2016 Jakarta, 23 March 2016 Introduction Following the success of strong macroeconomic policy adjustments

More information

swfinstitute.org SOVEREIGN WEALTH FUND INSTITUTE SWF ASSET ALLOCATION REPORT SOVEREIGN WEALTH ASSET ALLOCATION

swfinstitute.org SOVEREIGN WEALTH FUND INSTITUTE SWF ASSET ALLOCATION REPORT SOVEREIGN WEALTH ASSET ALLOCATION SOVEREIGN WEALTH FUND INSTITUTE swfinstitute.org SWF ASSET ALLOCATION REPORT 2012 2010 SOVEREIGN WEALTH ASSET ALLOCATION A Commitment to Providing Un-Biased Reasearch on Sovereign Wealth Funds and other

More information

Varma s Interim Report 1 January 30 September 2017

Varma s Interim Report 1 January 30 September 2017 1 (9) Varma s Interim Report 1 January 30 September 2017 The comparison figures in parentheses are from 30 September 2016, unless otherwise indicated. Total result amounted to EUR 1,262 (234) million.

More information

CENTRAL BANK OF OMAN. Mid-Year Review of the Omani Economy 2010

CENTRAL BANK OF OMAN. Mid-Year Review of the Omani Economy 2010 CENTRAL BANK OF OMAN Mid-Year Review of the Omani Economy 2010 December 2010 CENTRAL BANK OF OMAN Mid-Year Review of the Omani Economy 2010 Economic Research and Statistics Department CONTENTS Page Foreword

More information

WHAT INVESTMENT RETURNS CAN WE EXPECT THE ECONOMY TO SUPPORT IN THE LONG-TERM?

WHAT INVESTMENT RETURNS CAN WE EXPECT THE ECONOMY TO SUPPORT IN THE LONG-TERM? WHAT INVESTMENT RETURNS CAN WE EXPECT THE ECONOMY TO SUPPORT IN THE LONG-TERM? Jean-Pierre Aubry, Associate Fellow, CIRANO Annual conference of the Canadian Economic Association HEC, Montréal, May 30th

More information

Economic Outlook. Ottawa Chamber of Commerce/ Ottawa Business Journal: Mayor s Breakfast Series Ottawa, Ontario 27 April 2012.

Economic Outlook. Ottawa Chamber of Commerce/ Ottawa Business Journal: Mayor s Breakfast Series Ottawa, Ontario 27 April 2012. Economic Outlook Ottawa Chamber of Commerce/ Ottawa Business Journal: Mayor s Breakfast Series Ottawa, Ontario 27 April 2012 Mark Carney Mark Carney Governor Agenda Three global forces The consequences

More information

Slowdown or recession?

Slowdown or recession? Slowdown or recession? BY DIRK HOFSCHIRE, CFA, VICE PRESIDENT, ASSET ALLOCATION RESEARCH, FIDELITY VIEWPOINTS 08/10/11 Recession risks rise, though mid-cycle slowdown may be the most likely scenario. The

More information

Economic Outlook No. 94

Economic Outlook No. 94 Economic Outlook No. 94 19 November 2013 11h00 (Paris time) Press Conference Angel Gurría Secretary-General & Pier Carlo Padoan Deputy Secretary-General and Chief Economist For a video link to the press

More information

FRANC ZONE ANNUAL REPORT

FRANC ZONE ANNUAL REPORT 2009 FRANC ZONE ANNUAL REPORT * The global economic recession of 2009, which resulted in a 0.6% decline in world GDP, led to a significant slowdown in economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa. ACTIVITY The

More information

Asset Allocation Perspective from American Century Investments

Asset Allocation Perspective from American Century Investments Asset Allocation Perspective from American Century Investments October 20, 2009 by Scott Wittman, CFA Asset Allocation Summary Our tactical weightings for the fourth quarter are unchanged from late August

More information

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK UNIVERSITY OF CYPRUS ECONOMICS RESEARCH CENTRE. January 2017 SUMMARY. Issue 17/1

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK UNIVERSITY OF CYPRUS ECONOMICS RESEARCH CENTRE. January 2017 SUMMARY. Issue 17/1 SUMMARY UNIVERSITY OF CYPRUS The expansion of real economic activity in Cyprus is expected to continue in 2017 at rates similar to those registered in 2016. Real GDP is forecasted to have increased by

More information

International Monetary and Financial Committee

International Monetary and Financial Committee International Monetary and Financial Committee Thirty-Second Meeting October 9 10, 2015 Statement by José Darío Uribe, Governor, Banco de la República, Colombia On behalf of Colombia, Costa Rica, El Salvador,

More information

Executive summary. Universal social protection to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals

Executive summary. Universal social protection to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals Executive summary Universal social protection to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals 2017 19 Universal social protection to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals Executive summary Social protection,

More information

GCC Knowledge Note: Global Economic Trends

GCC Knowledge Note: Global Economic Trends MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA REGION GCC COUNTRY UNIT GCC Knowledge Note: Global Economic Trends Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure

More information

Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices (April 2017) Summary

Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices (April 2017) Summary April 27, 2017 Bank of Japan The Bank's View 1 Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices (April 2017) Summary Japan's economy is likely to continue expanding and maintain growth at a pace above its potential,

More information

Bismillahirrahmanirrahim, Assalamu alaikum warahmatullahi wabarakatuh,

Bismillahirrahmanirrahim, Assalamu alaikum warahmatullahi wabarakatuh, KEYNOTE ADDRESS BY DR. DARMIN NASUTION GOVERNOR OF BANK INDONESIA AT THE INDONESIA INVESTMENT FORUM JAKARTA, 29 SEPTEMBER 2010 Bismillahirrahmanirrahim, Assalamu alaikum warahmatullahi wabarakatuh, Peace

More information

Domestic demand shows signs of life

Domestic demand shows signs of life Produced by the Economic Research Unit January 2013 A quarterly analysis of trends in the Irish economy Domestic demand shows signs of life Group Chief Economist: Dan McLaughlin 0.8% rise in GDP still

More information

Trend of Foreign Direct Investment in Pakistan ( )

Trend of Foreign Direct Investment in Pakistan ( ) Trend of Foreign Direct Investment in Pakistan (1971-2005) Muhammad Azam, Naeem-ur-Rehman Khattack Abstract The present study was conducted with the broad aims to analyze the trend, pattern and benefits

More information

Regional economic overview: Midyear assessment. Christopher Edmonds Senior Economist Pacific Department, Asian Development Bank, Manila

Regional economic overview: Midyear assessment. Christopher Edmonds Senior Economist Pacific Department, Asian Development Bank, Manila Regional economic overview: Midyear assessment Christopher Edmonds Senior Economist Pacific Department, Asian Development Bank, Manila ADB Developing Member Countries in the Pacific International and regional

More information

Financial Crisis and Global Recession: At a Turning Point?

Financial Crisis and Global Recession: At a Turning Point? Financial Crisis and Global Recession: At a Turning Point? Richard Newfarmer Special Representative to UN and WTO World Bank Cairo June 15, 2009 Main messages Recession in the US now appears to be bottoming

More information

asdf World Economic Situation and Prospects 2007 Executive Summary

asdf World Economic Situation and Prospects 2007 Executive Summary World Economic Situation and Prospects 2007 Executive Summary asdf United Nations New York, 2007 The full publication is available from http://www.un.org/esa/policy/wess/wesp.html and is issued in English

More information

GLOBAL PRIMARY SUKUK MARKET OUTPERFORMS IN 1H2014

GLOBAL PRIMARY SUKUK MARKET OUTPERFORMS IN 1H2014 Insights GLOBAL PRIMARY SUKUK MARKET OUTPERFORMS IN 1H2014 Global Primary Sukuk issuances have soared in 1H2014, with some notable events adding new opportunities to the sukuk marketplace. The world s

More information

The Outlook for Israel s Economy in Light of Current Global Developments

The Outlook for Israel s Economy in Light of Current Global Developments The Outlook for Israel s Economy in Light of Current Global Developments Dr. Leonardo Leiderman Professor of Economics, Tel-Aviv University and Chief Economic Advisor, Bank Hapoalim To be presented in

More information

Indonesia: Building on Resilience and Prospering Amid Global Economic Uncertainty

Indonesia: Building on Resilience and Prospering Amid Global Economic Uncertainty Indonesia: Building on Resilience and Prospering Amid Global Economic Uncertainty 2016 Article IV Consultation Report on Indonesia John G. Nelmes IMF Senior Resident Representative for Indonesia Academic

More information

Cambodia. Impacts of Global Financial Crisis

Cambodia. Impacts of Global Financial Crisis Cambodia Impacts of Global Financial Crisis Cambodia s economy has significant vulnerabilities to the global economic crisis. Cambodia is a small open economy with a dynamism based on a non-diversified

More information

Divergent Monetary Policy Implication for sub-saharan African Economies. By Sarah O. Alade Deputy Governor, Economic Policy Central Bank of Nigeria

Divergent Monetary Policy Implication for sub-saharan African Economies. By Sarah O. Alade Deputy Governor, Economic Policy Central Bank of Nigeria Divergent Monetary Policy Implication for sub-saharan African Economies By Sarah O. Alade Deputy Governor, Economic Policy Central Bank of Nigeria Crisis background The recent financial crisis is one of

More information