LBMA Precious Metals Conference Edinburgh, November Conference Summary

Transcription

1 LBMA Precious Metals Conference Edinburgh, November 2009 Conference Summary John Reade Public Affairs Committee Member The London Bullion Market Association

2 Disclaimer Please note that this is meant to be a light hearted summary of the proceedings of the conference and that no offence should be taken of anything that is said here... (you have been warned) Thank you

3 Opening Session

4 Orientation Stewart Murray Chief Executive The London Bullion Market Association

5 Orientation Tenth LBMA Precious Metals Conference First in the UK, first in Scotland Not in Peru Oversubscribed

6 Using the keypad Polling Texting Microphone What is the fastest land animal?

7 Introductory Remarks Kevin Crisp, Chairman The London Bullion Market Association

8 Introductory Remarks (New) Chairman during times of change First non market-making Chairman Adding, Added to Staff No sign of Empire Building,then Data Committee; Benchmark forward curve Stronger collective voice By the industry, for the industry

9 Keynote Speech Paul Mercier, Principal Adviser in Market Operations European Central Bank

10 Keynote Speech Eternal role of gold The Past Predates central banks Not the original or most unusual form of money Silver had a much more important monetary role CB holdings peaked at about 38,000t in 1960s Was the anchor of currencies The gold exchange standard contained no link between money supply and gold; broke down under President Nixon

11 Keynote Speech The Present Central Banks now hold 30,000t 10,800t in the Eurosystem banks Gold value has increased; share declined Central bank balance sheet increased sharply Eurosystem still optimising its holdings Historically gold was important, now less so

12 Keynote Speech The Future CBGA signatories hold 50-55% in gold Non signatories much smaller holdings I would not conclude that gold holdings will continue to decline Now: The value of money is only faith Gold investors have less faith in money

13 The Role of the Bank of England Michael Cross, Head of Foreign Exchange Bank of England

14 The Role of the Bank of England Gold is a small part of a much broader remit Promote & maintain financial and monetary stability Intelligence function Gold falls under the FX division Management of UK gold reserves Custodial services 400,000 gold bars Contribution to the self regulation of the gold market Sold gold for HM Treasury under CBGA1 Not a signatory to CBGA 2 or 3 No longer a lender or a seller

15 Session 2: Impact of Financial Crisis Chairman: Steven Lowe ScotiaMocatta London

16 Issues Facing Producers Mark Lynam Executive Officer AngloGold Ashanti

17 Issues Facing Producers Global Footprint We are a global company Production 4.98Moz Total cash costs $444/oz Current Market Cap $16bn Russia China DRC...with significant positions across key gold producing regions. 3 rd Largest Miner; Best performing major gold stock this year 3

18 Issues Facing Producers Financing Seizure of the credit market $1bn convertible bond due in February Stressed bank counterparties Successfully refinanced in November Lots of lessons learnt Counterparties Focus on the balance sheet

19 Issues Facing Producers Refinancing Premium Successful negotiation of bridge facility with Standard Chartered REFINANCING RERATING STANCHART FACILITY AGREED Jun 2008 Jul 2008 Aug 2008 Sep 2008 Oct 2008 Nov 2008 Dec 2008 Jan 2009 Feb 2009 Mar 2009 Apr 2009 May 2009 Jun 2009 Jul 2009 Aug 2009 Sep 2009 AngloGold Ashanti Philadelphia Gold & Silver Index was the catalyst for significant rerating of equity. 10 We are all credit analysts now, UBS Equity analyst, 2009

20 Issues Facing Producers AngloGold Ashanti s stated policy: Hedge book going to zero over a number of years

21 Issues Facing The Jewellery Industry Aram Shishmanian Chief Executive Officer World Gold Council

22 Issues Facing The Jewellery Industry But I am not going to talk about that 1. Preservation hanging on to what you have 2. Relevance must keep gold relevant in EM 3. Desirability tarnished passion in US and Europe 4. Responsibility conscientious consumption, 60 Minutes 5. Innovation new applications for gold 6. Intervention Central Banks net buyers 7. New Axis India, China, Middle East

23 Issues Facing Refiners and Fabricators Mehdi Barkhordar Managing Director PAMP

24 Issues Facing Refiners and Fabricators A New Western Mindset: Distrust Governments Currencies Financial Systems Monetary stability Trust only gold! A traditional Asian mindset

25 Issues Facing Refiners and Fabricators Business as usual in the East Jewellery demand dried up Scrap surged Jewellery and manufacturing trade severely hurt Investment demand held up well, however Trust only gold!

26 Issues Facing Refiners and Fabricators New Challenges Insurance Capacity Storage Capacity Shipping and Logistics Peak production Financing & Counterparty risks A fundamental shift in the gold market

27 Session 3: Precious Metals Investment Chairman: James Cross Chairman Swiss Gold DMCC

28 Macro Outlook For the world economy and currencies David McWilliams Economist

29 Macro Outlook For the world economy and currencies How to summarise Mr McWilliams? Fine UBS tradition Pope s children Don t you want me baby Peak everything Dollar is toast; Ireland toasted Inflation could be a big problem in 3-5 years

30 The ETF Market Stephan Mueller Executive Director Bank Julius Baer

31 The ETF Market Gap between knowing and understanding ETP is the combination of a compelling underlying and a tradable vehicle Throughout history, physical precious metals have always been a means of payment Precious meals are subject to price volatility, but will never lose its physical (real) value ETP (Exchange Traded Products); i.e. ETF, ETN, ETC etc. are well known Product setups that are linked to a balance sheet imply various counterparty risks The benefit of the physical backing can be diluted by choosing a poor product setup 8

32 The ETF Market Currency hedging must not be a privilege Professional currency hedging creates real value A professional fund management adjusts the currency hedge versus the USD for the EUR, CHF and GBP share classes on a daily basis The Purpose of the hedge is maximum participation in the price movement of the underlying Distortion is avoided by converting the USD value of the underlying into the investor s base currency Clients who invest in precious metals without currency hedging take on significant currency risks, which detract from the function in the portfolio context. 14

33 Asset Allocation for Precious Metals Larry Hatheway Chief Economist and Head of Asset Allocation UBS Investment Bank

34 Asset Allocation for Precious Metals Gold s role in a portfolio Limited strategic role Tactical allocations vary a lot Gold does well when the US dollar is weak High inflation is what really makes gold stand out Gold does well when you need it!

35 Asset Allocation for Precious Metals 3. Precious metals and high inflation 50% 45% Return (p.a.) Precious Metals 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% Gov ernment bonds 5% Corporate bonds Equities 0% Real Estate Risk (p.a.) 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% J Optimal allocation 16 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Core CPI inflation Source: Bloomberg, UBS Note: Dates and arrows denote high/low inflation periods used in analyses. Precious metals 100% Gov ernment bonds 0% Real Estate 0% Equities 0% Corporate bonds 0% Source: Bloomberg, UBS 17 Another fine UBS tradition

36 Asset Allocation for Precious Metals US dollar weakness is what has driven gold USD has fallen for the past 8 years Inflation needed for much higher allocations What investors have been asking about all year UBS does not see any inflation problem If inflation fears increase dramatically, gold will trade much higher

37 Session 4: PGMs Looking Forward Chair: Edel Tully Head of Precious Metals Research Mitsui Precious Metals

38 The Autocatalyst Market The next decade David Jollie Manager, Precious Metals Marketing Johnson Matthey

39 The Autocatalyst Market The next decade Platinum trends Thrifting Downsizing Pd substitution Hybridisation Metal cost Fuel cost Platinum use Customer preference Palladium trends Thrifting Downsizing CO2 legislation Hybridisation Metal cost Vehicle market Heavy duty Filters Emissions leg. US diesel Fuel cost Turbocharging Palladium use Engine technology Complicated outlook: lots of moving parts but generally positive for demand for PGMs Vehicle market Use in diesel Filters Emissions leg. China, India

40 The Autocatalyst Market The next decade Annual historical pgm demand and future? Million ounces

41 The Chinese Platinum Market Philip Klapwijk Executive Chairman GFMS

42 The Chinese Platinum Market China s Forecast Share of Global Precious Metals Demand in 2009 Source: GFMS Ltd.

43 The Chinese Platinum Market Chinese Platinum Jewellery Demand China s Share of Global Pt Jewellery Demand Source: GFMS Ltd. (2009 data are forecast)

44 Millions of Vehicles and Tonnes The Chinese Platinum Market Chinese Platinum Autocatalyst Consumption and Passenger Vehicle Sales Passenger Vehicle Sales Pt Autocatalyst Consumption Source: GFMS Ltd.; CAAM (2009 data are forecasts.)

45 PGMs: The Investor Arena Michael Sheehan Portfolio Manager Red Kite

46 140, , ,600 1,596,700 2,985,978 3,614,078 3,852,878 4,717,088 5,427,688 5,651,888 6,106,888 8,672,888 9,059,488 9,303,488 9,495,488 PGMs: The Investor Arena and supply remains tight many mines are currently operating unprofitably PGM US$ / oz ,400 1,300 1,200 and mining costs in South Africa are rising 1,100 1, Labor Labor represents 50% of cost base for Platinum producers Domestic wages in South Africa increased 8% indexed since Electricity represents 10% of cost base for Platinum producers Source: Standard Bank Cumulative PGM production Cash operating cost - $/PGM oz YTD avg. PGM basket price ($/oz) Current PGM basket price ($/oz) 15 Electricity In 2009/10 South Africa s biggest electricity suppler, Eskom, increased tariffs by 31.3% Interruptions in electricity supplies are also common in South Africa Investors have not forgotten South African production challenges: nor should we. Source: Bloomberg: Johnson Matthey Patinum Report

47 PGMs: The Investor Arena Pt & Au are hedges for the US dollar: USD down = Pt, Au up Platinum and Gold US$ / Oz weekly data US Dollar Indexed weekly data USD Index Platinum Gold Source: Bloomberg; US Treasury Website Correlation Platinum and USD = (0.84); Gold and USD = (0.82) 13

48 Session 5: Silver Chairman: Michael DiRienzo Executive Director The Silver Institute

49 Prospects For Silver Supply and Demand Jessica Cross CEO The VM Group

50 Prospects For Silver Supply and Demand Well-known weaknesses By-product supply Photography and Imaging Recycling

51 Offtake (Moz) Prospects For Silver Supply and Demand New Silver Applications ACTUAL FORECAST Food hygiene and water purification (95 Moz/y by 2020) Radio Frequency Identification Tags Wood preservatives Fibre/Textiles Solar Panels Wound care Food hygiene and water Able to offset silver s well-known weaknesses?

52 Prospects For Silver Supply and Demand The future? much healthier supply/demand balance than in the past robust industrial offtake emerging that does not generate vast amounts of scrap re-emerging as an asset class in the minds of investors expect gold/silver price ratio to narrow expect price rise to be sustainable

53 London s Role In The Silver Market James Steel Precious Metals Analyst HSBC

54 London s Role In The Silver Market Why London? Decline of the Spanish Empire saw London seize the silver market London never let go High quality facilities: Clearing & Vaulting Personnel Legal and Financial services Mining Finance Good delivery Policing and networking

55 Mining in Peru Roque Benavides CEO Buenaventura

56 Mining in Peru Mining exports (US$ Millions) 20,000 16,000 14,735 18,656 17,328 12,000 9,790 8,000 7,124 4,000 4,690 3,809 3,220 3, Source: CEPAL, PromPeru, and MINEM

57 Mining in Peru Excellent competitive position Production Ranking 2008 Mineral Latin America World Silver 1 1 Tellurium 1 3 Zinc 1 3 Tin 1 3 Lead 1 4 Gold 1 5 Copper 2 3 Bismuth 2 3 Molybdenum 2 4 Source: ProInversión

58 Mining in Peru Summary of Mining climate in Peru Bountiful geological setting Investment grade sovereign rating Solid legal system Steady tax regime Favourable investment climate A cornerstone of the economy Environmentally sensitive Sustainable focus

59 Session 6: The future of the London PM Market Stephen Branton-Speak Head of Metals Trading and Partner Goldman Sachs

60 The future of the London PM Market Presidential debate: The Panel Phil Clewes-Garner, HSBC, LPPM Raymond Key, Deutsche Bank Neil Clift, JP Morgan Chase

61 The future of the London PM Market Stephen Branton-Speak Highly Opinionated Industry that Dislikes Change

62 The future of the London PM Market Phil Clewes-Garner, HSBC, LPPM The Past, the Present and the Future of the London PM Market

63 The future of the London PM Market Neil Clift, JP Morgan Chase Physical, Allocated and zero yield for commodities Credit, counterparty and concentration New exchanges a threat to London via Fragmentation? A return to hedging Investors are surrogate producers Will take advantage of forward and forward vol curve

64 The future of the London PM Market Raymond Key A time of change: Threats and Opportunities ETFs Regulatory Why we should be positive about London? LBMA and the London clearing market Delivery list, vaulting, clearing etc Market Makers need to look at themselves London has a role Needs to maintain this role

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