Sesa Sterlite. 30 July

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1 BSE SENSEX S&P CNX 25,991 7,749 Bloomberg SSLT IN Equity Shares (m) 2,964.7 M.Cap. (INR b) / (USD b) 860.6/ Week Range (INR) 318/119 1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%) -3/20/90 Financials & Valuation (INR Billion) Y/E MAR 2015E 2016E 2017E Net Sales EBITDA Adj PAT EPS (INR) Gr. (%) RoE (%) RoCE (%) P/E (x) P/BV (x) EV/EBITDA ( ) July QFY15 Results Update Sector: Metals Sesa Sterlite CMP: INR290 TP: INR326 Buy EBITDA below estimates; some progress on regulatory front Consolidated 1QFY15 adjusted EBITDA increased 4% YoY to INR56.7b, yet it was 11% below estimates largely due to significant miss at zinc businesses, copper India and delay in TSPL commissioning. Zinc-India mine production declined 31% YoY to 163kt due to ore body pattern. Higher production in 2HFY15 will cover the loss. Zinc-international EBITDA suffered by INR670m due to delay in shipping of 11kt volumes. Copper production was lower at 66kt and EBITDA declined sharply to INR900m due to higher repair cost and lower volumes because of 23-day maintenance shutdown. Copper business is expected to rebound in subsequent quarters due to strong TcRc (75% tonnage contracted at USc25/lb). Reported PAT (after MI) at INR3.75 was impacted by prior period charge of INR16.3b due to change in depreciation accounting at CAIRN. Adjusted PAT increased 124% YoY to INR13.4b (v/s est. of INR11.7b). Interest and depreciation were lower due to delay in TSPL commissioning. Amortization was lower due to lower production at Zinc-Int. and Copper Australia. Other income was higher due to maturity of FMPs. Thus, PBT (before EO item) was in-line with estimate at INR33.5b. Low cost (labor+300bps) USD800m ICD (of USD1.25b) from Cairn has been utilized to repay high cost (7.9%) ICD from Vedanta Plc. There have been some positive developments on regulatory side. Balco s coal block has now received forest diversion and R&R approval. Mining lease is yet to be executed. Govt. has approved its stake sale in Balco & HZL. We believe that the business fundamentals are strong for SSLT with tailwind of strong zinc, lead & oil prices. Balco coal block will further drive earnings. Sustained high base metal prices will drive earnings upgrade. Maintain Buy. Sanjay Jain (SanjayJain@MotilalOswal.com); Investors are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the Research Report.

2 S.N. Business 4QFY14 update 1QFY15 update 1 Zinc India (1) Actual FY14 production missed revised guidance of 900kt by 3% (2) CoP up 7% QoQ to INR55467/t due to inflation of coal, diesel, and higher mine development cost (3) FY15 guidance is muted with only marginal increase in production, while costs are expected to be stable (1) Mine production declined 31% YoY to 163kt hurt by lower production at Rampur Agucha mines. This is lowest quarterly production in last 6 years. (2) cost of production is still inching up due to rising strip ratio during transition from open cast to underground mining (4) R&R increased by gross 26.1mt (3) Mine production is expected to bounce back in 2HFY15 such that the whole FY15 production is in-line with FY14 production Zinc Int (1) Production was flat QoQ as 10kt growth in Skorpion production was offset by lower ore grade at BMM & Lisheen. EBITDA improved QoQ (2) Lisheen will close in CY15 (3) evaluating installing a roaster at the Skoprion refinery to treat sulphide ore from BMM and other neighbouring mines (4) volumes to remain flat YoY in FY15 2 Cairn India (1) met FY14 Rajasthan exit production guidance of 200kbpd, but cut FY15 average guidance to 181kbpd (flat YoY). It now guides for next three-year production CAGR of 7-10%, implying back-ended increase. (2) Harshad, oil analyst, has cut FY15/FY16 Rajasthan gross production assumption by ~10%/3% to 181/204 kbpd and DCF value by INR10 to INR385 (1) EBITDA at INR2.32b was down 23% YoY due to lower volumes and shifting of sale of metal and concentrate parcels to Q2, affecting the EBITDA by INR670m (2) Mine production was lower due to drop in grade as per mine plan and BMM maintenance shutdown (1) Rajasthan production was lower than estimate but cambay production was little better. (2) Satellite fields contribution will increase with NI and Guda start in 2QFY15 and IOR/EOR implementation is on track to commence production in 4QFY15 (3) increased in-place resources from 7bboe to 10bboe ( 5.2bboe established + 0.6bboe as discovered + 4.2bboe yet to be drilled) (4) USD1.25b ICD to SSLT subs at L+300bps (5) Depreciation rate changed from SLM to "unit of production" 3 Iron ore (1) Iron ore mining leases stand expired w.e.f under recent supreme court decision (2) Goa state govt. will come out with a policy to grant mining leases within 2 months. (3) 1.5mt iron ore produced, but only 27kt was sold in Karnataka (4) 300kt Goa ore sold in E-auction but not dispatched (5) Liberia: identified significant, potential los cost, start up ore at all 3 sites with tailing at Bomi and soft weathered cap ore at Bea and Mano. (1) Goa operations are still suspended (2) Goa govt. is likely to decide new mining policy in 2QFY15 (3) 500kt iron ore sold from Karnataka mines in E-auction (4) the business turned around with the help of pig iron business (5) No capex commitment yet for Liberia mining 4 Copper (1) conversion cost was 6 US cents/lb (vs last year) due to improved productivity, lower power cost, partially offset by lower by product credit (2) TcRc outlook is robust due to mine oversupply in 2014 and 2015 (3) 2nd 80MW CPP began commercial production (4) Smelter is under 22 days annual maintenance shut down during 1QFY15 5 Aluminum (1) Al CoP at Jharsuguda further improved to USD1542/t (2) Balco CoP increased further to USD1728/t due to tapering of linkage (3) 900t metal produced at Balco-III 325kt smelter (4) CTO for 1200MW is still pending, which is delaying the commissioning 6 Power (1) Expect to produce 9.5b kwh in FY15 i.e. PLF of 43% largely due to expected debottlenecking of power evacuation from W3 zone in 2HFY15 (2) INR2.2b of provision towards receivable from Gridco on disputed power rates under CERC guidelines (3) TSPL expects to sell 5b kwh in FY15 (1) Australian mine operations are now mothballed until end of FY16 (2) copper production suffered due to 23 day maintenance shutdown (3) TcRc were Usc 18.8/lb. TcRc EBITDA to return to normal run-rate in remaining part of FY15 aided by production normalization and strong TcRc. (4) Nearly 75% of quantity is contracted at USc25/lb (1) Cost of production has started inching up with shortage of E-auction coal. Aluminum CoP was up 6% QoQ. (2) Availability of domestic coal is expected to be reduced in E-auction under new government policy. This will result in higher metal production cost. (3) CTO for Balco s 1200MW and use of power from 2400MW Jharsuguda for phase 2 smelter is still pending. (1) PLF remains low at 2400MW Jharsuguda due to transmission constraints. (2) TSPL s first 660MW unit is still under commissioning with reliability run of the unit planned during 2QFY July

3 PRODUCTION (TONNES) 1QFY14 2QFY14 3QFY14 4QFY14 1QFY15 2QFY15E 3QFY15E 4QFY15E FY15E Copper- India / Australia Copper - MIC 6,000 6,000 5,000 1, Copper - Cathodes 15,643 82,000 99,000 98,000 66,000 80,000 95,000 95, ,000 power sales (mkwh) Alumina (lanjigarh) 0 116, , , , , , , ,000 Aluminium 195, , , , , , , , ,379 Jharsuguda 134, , , , , , , , ,000 Korba II 61,000 63,000 63,000 64,000 60,000 69,313 82,141 88, ,379 Power sales (m kwh) 3,177 1,910 2,197 2,093 2,599 2,566 2,676 2,696 10,537 Jharsuguda 2,400 MW 2,604 1,494 1,827 1,701 2,154 2,129 2,365 2,365 9,013 Balco 270 MW MW MALCO HZL Wind Power Zinc India 0 Mined metal content 237, , , , , , , , ,150 Refined zinc 174, , , , , , , , ,012 Integrated only 173, , , , , , , , ,012 Refined lead 31,356 29,978 24,984 36,009 31,000 31,620 32,252 32, ,770 Integrated only 27,356 28,978 24,984 29,009 27,000 31,620 32,252 32, ,770 Saleable silver (kg) 104,844 99,000 82,100 84,000 90,777 82,212 83,856 85, ,379 Integrated only 85,844 92,000 81,100 78,000 64,777 82,212 83,856 85, ,379 Zinc - international 90, ,000 84,000 83,000 84,000 92,550 70,800 69, ,940 Zinc refined skorpion 34,000 35,000 22,500 33,000 33,000 34,300 22,050 32, ,690 MMC (BMM & Lesheen) 56,000 71,000 61,500 50,000 51,000 58,250 48,750 37, ,250 Oil & Gas (m boe) - Gross O&G - Working Interest No. of days Avg. daily Gross Production 212, , , , , , , , ,876 Rajasthan 173, , , , , , , , ,171 Ravva 28,523 29,151 27,857 24,225 23,940 23,940 23,940 23,940 23,940 Cambay 10,672 8,671 10,277 9,323 10,765 10,765 10,765 10,765 10,765 Avg daily working Interest 132, , , , , , , , ,512 Rajasthan (70%) 121, , , , , , , , ,820 Ravva (25.5%) 6,357 6,559 6,268 5,451 5,387 5,387 5,387 5,387 5,387 Cambay (40%) 4,269 3,468 4,111 3,729 4,306 4,306 4,306 4,306 4,306 Iron ore (m dmt) sales Goa Karnataka Saleable production Goa Karnataka Pig iron 110, , , , , , , , ,000 Met coke 85,000 88, , , , , , , , July

4 QUARTERLY PERFORMANCE INR MILLION Y/E March 1QFY15 2QFY15E 3QFY15E 4QFY15E FY15E FY16E FY17 Net Sales 171, , , , , , ,275 EBITDA 56,734 63,409 69,365 72, , , ,824 Standalone 8,864 9,971 11,442 13,340 43,617 53,320 48,592 Cu TcRc 1,508 2,720 3,230 3,230 10,688 11,900 11,424 SEL - power 2,477 2,107 2,413 2,483 9,480 10,052 13,068 VAL - aluminum 4,410 4,317 4,928 5,057 18,712 24,059 16,791 iron ore and others ,570 4,738 7,309 7,309 Cairn 30,524 32,836 30,839 30, , , ,467 HZL 13,524 14,390 21,453 22,291 71,658 78,568 78,973 Balco 913 1,171 1,511 1,796 5,391 13,887 19,728 Zinc-International 2,320 4,122 2,932 2,824 12,198 9,638 6,268 TSPL ,022 6,047 17,117 Others ,347 3,679 3,679 Interest 15,371 16,893 16,964 17,302 66,530 74,069 81,634 Depreciation 20,644 22,837 22,895 22,939 89,316 97,905 98,044 Other Income 14,366 10,771 11,022 11,012 47,171 49,766 60,082 PBT (before XO item) 35,084 34,450 40,529 43, , , ,227 Extra-ordinary gain (loss) -16, , PBT (after XO item) 18,811 34,450 40,529 43, , , ,227 Tax 3,803 5,050 5,870 5,609 20,332 25,846 41,594 Reported PAT 15,007 29,399 34,660 37, , , ,634 Less: Minority int. 16,586 16,465 17,983 18,274 69,308 66,956 60,718 Adjusted PAT 14,695 12,935 16,677 19,142 63,448 63,483 54,915 Sum-of-the-parts Valuation: SESA-STERLITE (FY16 estimates) INR billion Net EBITDA PAT Net Net Valuations EV CWIP Equity Stake Attrib. INR/ Sales Debt Worth Basis Value (%) Equity share (A) (G) (B) C=(AxB) (D) {C-G+D} Stand-alone # x EBITDA Bloom Fountaion x EBITDA Hindustan Zinc x EBITDA Balco x EBITDA CMT+inter seg x EBITDA Zinc International x EBITDA TSPL DCF Cairn India =Cairn TP* Attributable SOTP Aluminium = USD 2000/ton, Zinc = USD 2100/ton, lead prices = USD2100/ton Silver = USD21/oz, USD/INR =60; FY16 estimates Source: MOSL # (VAL, copper TcRc, SEL, Sesa) NET DEBT CALCULATIONS INR billion 30 June 2014 (actual) 31 Mar 2014 (actual) Debt Less: cash Net less:mi Attributable Debt Less: cash Net less:mi Attributable Standalone Cairn acquisition SPV Talwandi Sabo Zinc International Zinc India Cairn India Balco Others* Sesa Sterlite July

5 Sesa Sterlite: an investment profile Company description Sesa Sterlite Industries is formed with the merger of Sesa Goa and Sterlite Industries. Post merger Sesa Sterlite is one of the largest natural resource globally with exposure to all the major commodities. It has refined zinc and lead capacities of 1.5mtpa in HZL and Zinc International, Crude oil production capacity of kboepd, Iron ore production capacity of 17mtpa, Aluminium capacity of 1.1mtpa and 8.8GW (including current expansion) of power capacity. Key investment arguments Post merger of Sesa-Sterlite, earnings are now much more diversified with exposure across oil & gas, aluminum, copper, zinc, iron ore and power businesses. Moreover most of these assets enjoy significant cost leadership. Zinc, lead, silver, oil & gas and iron ore business in India is in the lowest quartile of global cost curve. Conversion businesses of aluminum, copper and power too are highly efficient SSLT operating performance has been impacted due multiple regulatory headwinds across its business segments. However regulatory risk is subsiding with restart/likely restart of iron ore mining, TcRc smelter and Balco 325ktpa smelters expansion. Comparative valuations SSLT NALCO HINDALCO P/E (x) FY15E FY16E P/BV (x) FY15E FY16E EV/Sales (x) FY15E FY16E EV/EBITDA (x) FY15E FY16E Key investment risks Unexpected fall in base metal and oil prices may affect profitability, as SSLT derives significant profits from its mining business. Recent developments Promoters have increased stake in SSLT by 300bps to 60.31%. CAIRN India closed buy-back program. SSLT s stake has increased by 114bps to 59.9%. Valuation and view Stock is trading at attractive FY15 P/BV of 1.1x. We value the stock at INR326/share based on SOTP. Sector view Zinc: Zinc is our most preferred base metal due to favorable demand outlook and constraints in supply growth due to shortage of large scale low cost mines in the world. We factor zinc and lead prices of USD2100/t and USD2,100/t respectively. Aluminum: We believe bauxite shortage will drive alumina/metal prices. We factor LME of USD2,000/t in FY16E and FY17E respectively. EPS: MOSL forecast v/s consensus (INR) MOSL Consensus Variation Forecast Forecast (%) FY FY Target price and recommendation Current Target Upside Reco. Price (INR) Price (INR) (%) Buy Shareholding pattern (%) Jun-14 Mar-14 Jun-13 Promoter DII FII Others Notes: FII includes depository receipts Stock performance (1-year) 30 July

6 Financials and valuation Income statement (INR Billion) Y/E March E 2016E 2017E Net Sales Change (%) 2, EBITDA EBITDA Margin (%) Depreciation EBIT Interest Other Income Extraordinary items PBT Tax Tax Rate (%) Reported PAT Adjusted PAT Change (%) -21, Min. Int. & Assoc. Share Adj Cons PAT Balance sheet (INR Billion) Y/E March E 2016E 2017E Share Capital Reserves Net Worth Debt Deferred Tax Total Capital Employed 1, , , ,225.3 Gross Fixed Assets ,093.6 Less: Acc Depreciation Net Fixed Assets Capital WIP Investments Current Assets , ,189.4 Inventory Debtors Cash & Bank Loans & Adv, Others Curr Liabs & Provns Curr. Liabilities Provisions Net Current Assets Total Assets 1, , , ,225.3 E: MOSL Estimates Ratios Y/E March E 2016E 2017E Basic (INR) EPS Cash EPS Book Value DPS Payout (incl. Div. Tax.) Valuation(x) P/E Cash P/E Price / Book Value EV/Sales EV/EBITDA Dividend Yield (%) Profitability Ratios (%) RoE RoCE Turnover Ratios (%) Asset Turnover (x) Debtors (No. of Days) Inventory (No. of Days) Creditors (No. of Days) Leverage Ratios (%) Net Debt/Equity (x) Cash flow statement (INR Billion) Y/E March E 2016E 2017E OP/(Loss) before Tax Depreciation Others Interest Direct Taxes Paid (Inc)/Dec in Wkg Cap CF from Op. Activity (Inc)/Dec in FA & CWIP (Pur)/Sale of Invt Others CF from Inv. Activity Inc/(Dec) in Net Worth Inc / (Dec) in Debt Interest Paid Divd Paid (incl Tax) CF from Fin. Activity Inc/(Dec) in Cash Add: Opening Balance Closing Balance July

7 N O T E S 30 July

8 Disclosures This research report has been prepared by MOSt to provide information about the company(ies) and sector(s), if any, covered in the report and may be distributed by it and/or its affiliated company(ies). This report is for personal information of the select recipient and does not construe to be any investment, legal or taxation advice to you. This research report does not constitute an offer, invitation Sesa or inducement Sterliteto invest in securities or other investments and Motilal Oswal Securities Limited (hereinafter referred as MOSt) is not soliciting any action based upon it. This report is not for public distribution and has been furnished to you solely for your general information and should not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person in any form. This report does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. 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This research is distributed in Singapore by Motilal Oswal Capital Markets Singapore Pte Limited and it is only directed in Singapore to accredited investors, as defined in the Financial Advisers Regulations and the Securities and Futures Act (Chapter 289), as amended from time to time. In respect of any matter arising from or in connection with the research you could contact the following representatives of Motilal Oswal Capital Markets Singapore Pte Limited: Anosh Koppikar Kadambari Balachandran anosh.Koppikar@motilaloswal.com kadambari.balachandran@motilaloswal.com Contact(+65) Contact: (+65) / Office Address:21 (Suite 31),16 Collyer Quay,Singapore Motilal Oswal Securities Ltd 30 July 2014 Motilal Oswal Tower, Level 9, Sayani Road, Prabhadevi, Mumbai Phone: reports@motilaloswal.com

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