AK A E K N E ER E Jİ EL E EK E T K RİK K Ü RET E İM A.Ş.. Ş

Transcription

1 AKENERJİ ELEKTRİK ÜRETİM A.Ş

2 COMPANY OVERVIEW Private Energy Company 373MW active power capacity (Natural gasand wind) 373 MW currently under construction (Hydro) 900 MW at development stage (Natural gas) 417 ton/hour installed steam capacity RoleinMarket Largest(capacity) and most experienced player in the market. Single-handedly produces 2% of energy generated in Turkey and is market leader with 12% production of private generation companies. IPO-ed in June Ranking in the Major 500 Ranked within the first 100 at 500 Major Industrial Enterprises of Turkey Research by Istanbul Chamber of Industry in last 7 years Ownership Structure Akkök 37,5% CEZ 37,5% Public Shares 25 % 2

3 SHAREHOLDER OVERVIEW AKKÖK Companies Quoted at the Istanbul Stock Exchange CEZ GROUP AKSA AKENERJİ AK-AL AKSU World s largest acrylic fiber producer. Market leader of private power generation companies in Turkey. A leading industrial corporation producing yarn. A leader in manufacture of textiles (Fabric & Yarn) with 54 years of experience. CEZ is the largest Czech corporation, and the largest corporation among 10 new EU member states. 63% of the company is owned by Czech Ministry of Finance. The best performing European utility stock with growth of 253% over last 36 months. Vertically integrated in the Czech Republic from mining through generation to distribution and supply. Expertise in distribution and supply in Bulgaria and Romania. Generation know-how in lignite, coal and nuclear energy. AKMERKEZ REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT COMPANY : WORLD BRAND AS A SHOPPING CENTER 3

4 GLOBAL TRENDS-Alternative Fuel Sources Renewable Energy Capacity as a proportion of Global Power Generation Capacity, (GW) World s Electricity Production by Fuel Trillion Killowatthours Coal Natural Gas Renewables Nuclear Liquids Today, with the growth of the economies, demand for energy is increasing. As a result, further investments and diversification of the energy sources seems immanent. In developed countries, wind and solar power investments seem to dominate the renewable energy developments. This may also be the likely result of the developed countries having maximized their hydro capacity already. 4

5 POWER SECTOR OUTLOOK- TURKEY Turkey's Installed Capacity by Generation Companies (MW) BO-BOT-TOR and others Private Generation Co. Public Generation Co. %23 %20 Import and Export of electricity is depends on Governmental permits. Due to technical infrastructure, capacity for trade is very limited %57 Power Consumption Breakdown in Turkey (2007) Other 10% Residential 24% Energy Sources (2008) Coal 8% Hydro 17% FuelOil 5% Lignite 21% Other 1% Natural Gas 48% Industrial 47% Government Office 4% Commercial Customers 15% Currently the majority (90%) of natural gas is being imported by the government, there is no alternative and no price competition for natural gas in the market. The above chart illustrates, that the electricity price is mainly sensitive to the global NG price trend. 5 Source: TEİAŞ, TEDAŞ

6 GLOBAL ELECTRICITY GROWTH DYNAMICS It has been historically observed globally that the electricity markettendstogrow+4%onaverageabovethecountrygrowth rate. The difference in electricity demand and growth rates tends to be higher in developing countries, like Turkey. Since the end of 2007, Turkey experiences a shortage in electricity supply. We expect this shortage situation to continue in the short-run, at least until the current investments become operative. This indicates a growth potential for the Turkish energy market, as well as a satisfactory return on investments, while the imbalance lasts. Source: EUROSTAT 6

7 ELECTRICITY GROWTH TREND-TURKEY Generation Capacity vs. Demand Forecasts (GWh) 15% High Demand Scenario Renewable Hydro Thermal LowDemand Scenario Electricity Consumption Trend % % % % Annual GDP Increase (%) Annual Electricity Consumption Increase (%) % TEIAS forecasts average annual consumption growth of 7,5 % per year for 2009 to The consumption growth may be shifted due to the global crises but the imbalance remains a problem. In the last 20 years, net electricity consumption increased remarkably with 7% CAGR. Accordingly, we expect the government to improve the investment environment to encourage the private sector. Electricity consumption proved to be resilient to the downturns in the economy. Increase in electricity demand has mostly been much higher than the increase in national income in growth years, while staying at the positive territory during recession years. This has also been the case in financial crises situations. In 2001, Turkey s GDP percentage growth rate change has been - 5,7%, whereas the electricity demand growth rate has been-1,2%. 7 Source: TEİAŞ, State Planning Organization,TUİK

8 2009 DEMAND TREND-EFFECT OF THE CRISIS 19,0 18,5 18,0 17,5 17,0 16,5 16,0 15,5 15,0 14,5 14,0 Jan.0 08 Feb Monthly Electricity Consumptions of Turkey (GWh) 17,9 18 Mar.0 08 Apr.0 08 May.0 08 Jun..08 Jul.0 08 Aug.0 08 Sep.0 08 Oct.0 08 Nov.0 08 Dec..08 Jan.0 09 Feb.0 09 Mar.0 09 Apr.0 09 May.0 09 Jun..09 Jul.0 09 Aug.0 09 Sep.0 09 Oct.0 09 Nov Monthly Electricity Consumptions of Turkey (GWh) ,3 18,4 17,6 16,5 16,2 16,3 16,5 17,7 16,8 15,6 15,7 16,0 16,0 15,9 15,9 15,3 15,4 15,0 14,8 15,3 14,9 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov GWh diff Jan 17,9 16,8-6,2% Feb 16,5 15,0-9,2% Mar 16,2 16,0-1,8% Apr 15,7 14,8-5,2% May 16,3 15,3-6,2% Jun 16,5 15,9-3,8% Jul 18,3 17,7-3,3% Aug 18,4 17,6-4,1% Sep 16,0 15,3-4,5% Oct 14,9 15,9 6,8% Nov 15,4 15,6 1,6% 8 Source: TEİAŞ

9 MARKET LIBERALIZATION SCHEDULE Turkish Energy Market deregulation is developed after the UK Model and has been proceeding as per below schedule. Privatization & Liberalization should be expected to start to help create a transparent & competitive market environment. NG Market Libera alization Tender for BOTAS contracts 1* The privatization tenders for NG will continue until the market share of BOTAŞ will be reduced to 20%. Power Ma arket Liberaliza ation >7.7 miokwh/yr >6.0 miokwh/yr Eligibility Limit >3.0 miokwh/yr >1.2 miokwh/yr >0.48 miokwh/yr Further Reduction of Eligible Customer Limits Fully Open Introduction of automatic ization Distribution pricing mechanism for NG and electricity Distribution Region Sales 2* Privati Generation Introduction of DUY mechanism Plants brought to market in stages Generation Asset Sales ~ MW 1* 4 billion m3 NG has been privatized at * 21 Distribution Regions June08: Sedas, Bedas Sep.08 : Meram, Aras Oct.09 : Çoruh, Osmangazi, Yeşilırmak Feb.10 : Uludag, Camlıbel, Firat, Van Golu 9

10 MARKET MECHANISM & TARIFF STRUCTURE The official electricity tariff(for residential/commercial/industrial use) issetbythegovernmentevery3monthsasperapm*. NG tariffs are determined by the government, and adjusted monthly by APM(the private gas suppliers operate by providing a discount rate off of the official tariff). Given the supply-demand imbalance in the Turkish electricity market, sales to the DUY system, currently provide the most profitable sales platform to the Suppliers. The amount of imbalance in the market drives the price higher since the last-resort producers are predominantly NG/ fuel-oil plants - Industrial Tariff Day Peak Night increasing electricity shortage forecasts indicate higher prices to come. Private sector generation companies have the following sales platforms: Contract the customer directly providing them a discount rate from the tariff, Sales to the DUY system are exempt from TRT fund and transmission cost. Selling to DUY (Electricity Market Balancing and Settlement Regulation)** system at the average price (price that is the average of all sales withinthatmonthtoduyatallhours), Selling to DUY system by quoting generation price/power plant and per the specific time-segment of the day (price, that the company itself announces per its own power plants). *APM : Automatic Pricing Mechanism initiated in July.2008, where electricity and natural gas tariffs are automatically calculated and periodically applied according to the changes in price of fuel sources, FX rates, inflation rates etc. **DUY : Clearing house system was initiated in Aug.2006, and provides an open-market platform for the power generation companies, since the price is set by the generation company according to the supply and demand dynamics, and is not limited by the official tariff. 10

11 AKENERJİ 11

12 OPERATIONS and INVESTMENTS Akenerji constitutes 12% of private sector generation and 2% of Turkey s yearly energy generation. Current Active Capacity: 373MW (Natural gas& Wind) 417 tons/h Ongoing Investments: 373 MW (Hydro) Development Stage: 900 MW (Natural gas) License Pending: 170 MW (Wind) Geothermal License: 5 Permits Current Power Plants Electricity Capacity [MW] Steam Capacity [tons/hr] Çerkezköy Bozüyük Kemalpaşa 127,6 132 Ayyıldız WPP 15 - TOTAL 372,6 417 Capacity will become operational in 2010 Electricity Capacity [MW] Uluabat HPP 100 Akocak HPP 81 Burç HPP 28 Bulam HPP 7 TOTAL

13 2008 AKENERJİ MILESTONES Strategic Partnership with CEZ In September 2008, Akenerji has signed a strategic partnership agreement with CEZ to sell 37,5% ofitsshares for302miousd.thefinancialclosinghastakenplaceinmay2009. CEZ know-how in distribution, coal, lignite and nuclear power plants is an important asset for Akenerji s growth. Akenerji has announced its plan to invest USD 3billion in Turkish energy sector to reach an installed capacity of MW within 5 years. Vertical Integration with Sedaş In July 2008; Akkök- Akenerji CEZ, AkCEZ, won the Sakarya Electricity Distribution (SEDAŞ) tenderbysubmittingthehighestbidofusd600mio. Akenerji has taken over SEDAŞ in Feb Akenerji has opted for the Deferred Payment Option of the Privatization Authority and has paid 300mioUSDincash.Theremainderwillbe paidoutin2yearswithlibor+2,5%. Akenerji uses the equity pick-up method to consolidate SEDAŞ to its Balance sheet. 13

14 SEDAS KEY FIGURES customers.* 50% of the consumption is industrial.* 1billion$annualrevenue.* 7% theft/loss ratio.* Distributes 8 billion kwh/year.* Distribution margin is fixed at 2,23% during transaction period until 2012E. AkCEZ has SEDAŞ s transfer of operating rights for 30-years. Akenerji uses the equity pick-up method to consolidate SEDAŞ to its Balance sheet. * :Basedon2007figures 14

15 AKENERJI INVESTMENT HORIZON The current leader in the market, Akenerji plans to grow through a diversified portfolio. The breakdown of Akenerji s currently licensed investment are given below: INVESTMENT BREAKDOWN Project Name Developed Under Capacity [MW] Expected Operational Date Uluabat HPP 100 2Q 2010 Akenerji Akocak HPP 81 2Q 2010 Feke I HPP 30 3Q 2011 Feke II HPP Akkur* 70 3Q 2011 Burç HPP 28 3Q 2010 Himmetli HPP 24 3Q 2011 Gökkaya HPP 30 3Q 2011 MEM* Bulam HPP 7 4Q 2010 Saimbeyli HPP 3 3Q 2011 Hatay NG PP Egemer* 900 4Q 2012 TOTAL * : SPV (Special Purpose Vehicle Entity) Financing for all Akenerji and Akkur projects has been arranged before and in Akenerji borrows in 7+ year terms and in globally competitive standards. In 2007, Akenerji applied to EMRA for 2 wind power plant projects with a total capacity of 170 MWs. Akenerji is following the procedure to closure. In 2008; Akenerji obtained 5 permits to search for geothermal energy capacities in İzmir and Bursa regions. Akenerji has taken over Egemer Enerji Üretim A.Ş., an SPV in possession of a 900 MW NG PP license in Hatay, Turkey, in March The investment is currently in development phase. HPP : Hydro Power Plant WPP : Wind Power Plant NG PP: Natural gas fired Power Plant 15

16 MAIN CAPEX ASSUMPTIONS Capacity Source Diversification by 2012* For CAPEX estimations, the following data can be used: 1,2-1,5 mio $/MW for HPPs, 0,75-1mio$/MWforNGPPs, and 1,5-2 mio $/MW for wind projects. 23% 1% For investment period estimations, the following data can be used: 2yearsforWPPs, 2-3yearsforNGPPs, and3yearsforhpps. Akenerji applies 30% equity-70% debt structure to its investments. 76% NG Hydro Wind All of Akenerji s renewable projects are eligible to benefit from the Renewable Energy Law- i.e. a purchasing guarantee for 10 years at a price to be determined byemraonayearlybasis. Akenerji has applied for VER (voluntary emission trading) certificates for ALL of its renewable portfolio. Akenerji aims to optimize its generation type and fuel cost through its portfolio to enhance its flexibility and competitiveness in the market. * Capacity breakdown is based on the licensed investment assumption given in the previous slides. 16

17 CAPACITY & SALES FORECAST* * These forecasts are based on the licensed investment assumption given in the previous slides Power Generation Capacity (MW) E 2011E 2012E AyyıldızWPP has become operative in Sep Since its foundation, Akenerjiincreased its power generation capacity with a CAGR of 21%,and its steam generation capacity with a CAGR of 8%. Steam generation capacity will be stable at 417tons/hr. until Electricity Sales (GWh) E E E E 17

18 SALES & PRICING ASSUMPTIONS Akenerji has 3 main types of customers: direct, and indirect customers, and DUY system. DIRECT-INDIRECT SALES Direct customers have a physical direct line to the power plant, whereas the indirect customers are supplied through the national grid(at additional cost). Tariff for sales to direct and indirect customers are set as a function of the government s tariff. Akenerji applies average discount rate for direct customers is 5%, for indirect customers is nearly2%. Akenerji is the sole supplier of steam for its customers, and hence can directly reflect the NG price changes in its steam price Electricity Sales Breakdown DUY SALES Akenerji s average DUY price in 2008 has been approximately 8-30% above the tariff. Due to the imbalance between demand and supply in the margin, we expect the margins to continue in the short-term. In 2009, due to the effects of the global crises, we expect the margins to diminish from their rate in Electricity Sales Breakdown DUY; DUY; 79% 77% Indirect; 1% Direct; 20% Indirect; 10% Direct; 13% 18

19 FIVE YEAR INVESTMENT HORIZON Overall Goal: Akenerji plans to reach 3000 MWs of installed capacity in 5 years. Akenerji priorities in diversifying its fuel mix according to the growing demand while growing in generation. Main Focus Areas : Additional Renewable Capacity Additional Thermal Capacity Nuclear Energy Generation Privatization Opportunities Distribution Privatization Opportunities Akenerji has existing wind licence applications, and geothermal searching licences. Akenerji will continue to examine opportunities in wind, hydro, solar and geothermal facilities in Turkey. Akenerji is examining both local and import coal investment opportunities in various regions in Turkey. Akenerji has been actively involved in the nuclear energy talks with the governmental authorities and is interested in taking part in such an investment if the tender conditions are at global standards. Akenerji closely follows the generation asset privatization (tenders for current EÜAŞ portfolios). The privatization is expected to take place in After the take-over of Sedaş region, Akenerji will keep following upcoming distribution region privatization. Priority will be given to areas of Akenerji's generation areas. 19

20 FINANCIAL INFORMATION 20

21 FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE Net Sales (mio USD) ** 240 Ebitda (mio USD) ** * 2007** Q * 2007** Q2009 Net Income (mio USD) Q2009 (*) : TRT fund has been left out of the above calculations to better reveal performance. (**) : The impairment losses, a one-off provision the potential value difference resulting from power plant sales, has been left out from the calculations to better reveal operational performance. ** :Excluding Sedaş. 21

22 PROFITABILITY PERFORMANCE Yearly Profitability Margins % * 2004* * 2007* Q2009 EBITDA Margin Net Margin Quarterly Profitability Margins 3Q2007 * 4Q2007 * 1Q2008 2Q2008 3Q2008 4Q2008 1Q2009 2Q2009 3Q2009 EBITDA Margin 10% 11% 23% 21% 17% -2% 15% 15% 12% Net Margin 1% 4% 22% 11% 12% 13% 5% 6% 17% *: In CMB s new inflation adjusted accounting terms. * : TRT fund has been left out of the above calculations to better reveal performance. * :Impairment losses (Provision the potential value difference resulting from power plant sales)have been left out of the above calculations to better reveal operational performance. 22

23 CONSOLIDATED BALANCE SHEET Size of Balance Sheet (mio USD) Q2009 Debt Structure Q2009 Key Ratios Q2009 Cash (mio USD) Current Ratio 3,22 3,45 2,14 0,44 Short-term Financial Debts (mio USD) Leverage 0,48 0,53 0,80 0,67 Long-term Financial Debts (mio USD) Total Liabilities/Total Assets 0,33 0,35 0,44 0,61 Net Debt (mio USD) (0) (58) (128) (433) ROE (%) -14% -10% 19% 6,2% 23

24 160% 140% 120% Market Cap USD 600mio. STOCK PERFORMANCE With the initiationof DUY system, stock price has increased. GlobalCrisis demand-supply normalization 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% Because of increasingnatural gas prices and not adjusted electricity prices, stock price has also decline. Electricity Prices/Natural Gas Prices Introduction of DUY Stock Performance 0% Jan-02 Mar-02 May-02 Jul-02 Sep-02 Nov-02 Jan-03 Mar-03 May-03 Jul-03 Sep-03 Nov-03 Jan-04 Mar-04 May-04 Jul-04 Sep-04 Nov-04 Jan-05 Mar-05 May-05 Jul-05 Sep-05 Nov-05 Akenerji sdividend Policy Assuming no legal arrangement changes and taking the investment expenditures,as well as other potential cash needs into consideration; the yearly distributed dividend will not be less than the effective legal arrangements (20%) of the yearly distributable income. Dividend policy will be overviewed every year to sustain the financial performance of the company. Jan-06 Mar-06 May-06 Jul-06 Sep-06 Nov-06 Jan-07 Mar-07 May-07 Jul-07 Sep-07 Nov-07 Jan-08 Mar-08 May-08 Jul-08 Sep-08 Nov-08 Jan-09 Mar-09 May-09 Jul-09 Sep-09 Nov-09 24

25 AKENERJI INVESTOR RELATIONS Akenerji Elektrik Üretim A.Ş. Miralay Şefik Bey Sok. No:15 Akhan Gümüşsuyu İstanbul Turkey Gamze DİNÇKÖK YÜCAOĞLU Nilüfer AYDOĞAN (ext:1130) This presentation contains information and analysis on financial statements as well as forward-looking statements that reflect the Company management s current views with respect to certain future events. Although it is believed that the information and analysis are correct and expectations reflected in these statements are reasonable, they may be affected by a variety of variables and changes in underlying assumptions that could cause actual results to differ materially. Neither Akenerji nor any of its managers or employees nor any other person shall have any liability whatsoever for any loss arising from the use of this presentation. 25