Transurban Group. No change to broader trend A$11.90 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst
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- Ronald Phelps
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1 AUSTRALIA TCL AU Price (at CLOSE#, 09 Aug 2016) Outperform A$11.90 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 7.0%, beta 0.8, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.2%) month target A$ month TSR % +8.1 Volatility Index Low GICS sector Transportation Market cap A$m 24, day avg turnover A$m 63.5 Number shares on issue m 2,036 Investment fundamentals Year end 30 Jun 2016A 2017E 2018E 2019E Revenue m 2, , , ,566.7 EBIT m 1, , , ,036.0 Reported profit m , , ,487.9 Adjusted profit m , , ,487.9 Gross cashflow m , , ,487.9 CFPS CFPS growth % PGCFPS x PGCFPS rel x EPS adj EPS adj growth % PER adj x PER rel x Total DPS Total div yield % Franking % ROA % ROE % EV/EBITDA x Net debt/equity % P/BV x Note: Based on proportionately consolidated cash earnings. TCL AU vs ASX 100, & rec history Note: Recommendation timeline - if not a continuous line, then there was no Macquarie coverage at the time or there was an embargo period. Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, August 2016 (all figures in AUD unless noted) 10 August 2016 Macquarie Securities (Australia) Limited No change to broader trend Event TCL reported FY16 result. With traffic revenue reported, the key focus was on the EBITDA of $1,398m which was up post significant items and $1,480m pre vs. MRE $1,402m and $1,484m, respectively. Free cash of $926m was broadly in line with MRE of $931m, i.e. $ FY17 DPS guidance is for $0.505ps, slightly above our estimate of $0.50ps. Impact Operationally the issues are minor. Maintenance expense jumped $17m, up $10m above expectation, but this is mitigated by a $5m benefit associated with the Gateway North contract closure. There was some cost pressure, mainly in the head office associated with bids and technology, albeit they are minor against EBITDA of $1.4bn. Higher cost tunnels are dragging EBITDA, but this should decline as Legacy Way ramps up. Underlying core cashflow was strong with working capital benefits associated with interest paid and cash maintenance expense better than expected. The timing benefit offset the M5 skipping the 2H16 dividend due to a lack of franking. The fact that TCL could exceed cashflow guidance (dividend) despite missing $30m from the M5 highlights the flexibility it has with its cashflow. The target of ~$0.51 (upper end of management LTI) implies only moderate growth of 8.9%. We believe if the traffic trends in Sydney remain, Brisbane benefits from road work in other corridors and Citylink road work remains limited, there is scope for dividends above guidance of $ Our cashflow is materially stronger with the M5 dividend bouncing back. Medium-term growth comes from the $9bn pipeline. There has been some delay in the Monash widening, but otherwise timing is unchanged. The major value add remains the concession extension on Citylink, followed by truck multiplier changes, ie Citylink/Qld roads. We believe the potential upside to valuation as clarity emerges around these projects is $ ps. With the government s favourable disposed tolling model, we anticipate further opportunities in NSW and GWA. Earnings and target price revision We lower EBITDA by $10m in FY17, reflecting higher maintenance expense and overhead costs. Cash earnings have fallen by a similar amount. Price catalyst 12-month price target: A$12.34 based on a DCF methodology. Catalyst: Capitalising on key growth opportunities including WD, I-66, I- 395,I95S etc Action and recommendation Outperform, target price $12.34 (previously $12.31). The result does not change the broader trend of steady traffic growth translating into EBITDA growth 9-11% pa. With incremental funding savings, we expect cashflow growth will continue at +10% in the coming years. TCL is a defensive growth investment, benefiting from the structural demand for road capacity. Please refer to page 8 for important disclosures and analyst certification, or on our website
2 Fig 1 The good the bad and interesting What we liked What was of concern Interesting EBITDA broadly in line with expectation. With traffic reported, key focus is on costs. EBITDA of $1,480m was 0.2% lower than MRE $1,484m. Excluding significant items of $82m with respect to Airportlink transaction costs and integration costs EBITDA was $1,398m vs. MRE $1,402m, thus in line with expectation. Mix was slightly different. Costs on Citylink and M5 were $9m and $5m above expectation, offset by AirportLink, which was $7m better than expected. SYD and US contribution was as expected. Major adverse variance was maintenance costs increasing $10m above expectation to $87m. TCL has a $3m write-off of older technology, LCT and Legacy Way tunnel costs were higher. The offset was a $5m one-off gain from managing the Northern Gateway project. FY17 DPS above MRE ($0.50) and consensus FCF in line, but mix different. FY16 FCF ($0.50). TCL outlined a FY17 DPS of 50.5cps. (TCL definition) was $926m which was $5m The guidance is positive albeit not surprising based below MRE $931m i.e. $ Thus, the on our cashflow forecasts being materially stronger broad trend continues with 10% cashflow than TCL guidance. growth pa reflecting strong underlying traffic growth on the roads and cost discipline. While in line at a headline level, the odd element was the M5, the dividend halved, reflecting a skip of the 2H dividend. This was offset by some interest expense timing benefits. The M5 skip reflects the M5 positioning the dividend to ensure franking credits are not trapped, thus deferring dividends until tax paid returns to a full level. Citylink Concession Deed. TCL directly addressed the speculation about Citylink concession performance that it is not exceeding the hurdles, thus early redemption should not occur. Whilst TCL was definitive about this, it was interesting to see the reprice of the M2 and M1 promissory notes up 45% to $67m as assumptions obviously bring forward the potential payment dates. Management LTI s. An element which may attract attention, management LTI hurdles are based on FY16 dividend, not delivered cashflow. The target of 9-12% is lowered to 8-11% based on the higher cashflow. With core EBITDA growth of 8-10%, unless there is a collapse in traffic, we do not believe these hurdles are particularly challenging. Employee LTI Vesting targets Vesting Base % % % In the past this table as been a lead indicator to dividend. This year was no different, and on that basis FY17 should deliver ~$0.51ps of more. Strong Op Cf. Net op CF increased to $910m from $304m in pcp and well above our estimate of $725m. Key driver of the difference was $57m lower interest costs, while transactions costs associated with Airport Link was $23m vs MRE $131m. This will unwind in FY17 with the stamp duty from the AirportLink transaction of $108m to be paid. Brisbane EBITDA margin better and to continue to improve. Margin was in line with pcp albeit includes the drag from Legacy Way and Airport Link included in the portfolio as they ramp up. Exnew roads Underlying EBITDA margin on existing roads was 220bps better. This reflects continued progress on integration of the back office. With integration of AirportLink into QML now completed in conjunction with the roll-out of Glide, this will continue to benefit BRS margin. Western Distributor financial close not expected until late No major update was provided for the Western Distributor with TCL remaining in stage 4 in which it will continue to refine the agreement with Vic government. Financial close is not expected until mid-2017 once the environmental assessment is complete. Technology remains key theme. TCL continues to highlight investment in technology as a key focus to drive network enhancements. While novel, to date these investments are difficult to quantify. It will unveil its findings of its much anticipated Road Usage study in Sep-16. Pipeline remains strong. TCL continues to highlight progress on its large development pipeline. Current committed projects, which TCL is involved, include NorthConnex ($1.3b), Citylink Tulla widening ($1b) with current commentary they are on track for completion in FY20 and FY18 respectively. Current timeline suggests FY17 will see commencement and progress of another 5 projects including Logan Enhancement, ICB, I-395, I-95S and I-66. Importantly though, capital contribution is not too demanding peaking at $1.6b over the 6 years (Ex I-66, WD). Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, August 2016 Delays appear in Monash Freeway upgrade. TCL s pipeline of committed projects now includes the Monash Freeway upgrade albeit comparing the timeline to the 1H16 result suggests while commencement of construction in Sep-16 is consistent with expectation, completion is now expected by mid-fy19 vs end of FY18. Thus quantum of traffic increase may be delayed ~6months, but from a capital intensity perspective this may be positive. Debt refinancing opportunity to continue. Weighted average debt maturity increased from 7.8y to 8.7y. TCL highlighted that it would continue to target 7-12y debt maturities as they refinance the portfolio. Current rates are in the range of 4-5%, which compares favourably with the weighted average AUD cost of debt of 5.3%. 10 August
3 Analysis The table below sets out TCL FY16 results vs. MRE expectation. Fig 2 TCL vs MRE expectation FY13a FY14a FY15a FY16a Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, August 2016 Growth (%) MRE FY16e Variance FY17e FY18e Revenue A$m 1,125 1,270 1,734 2,006 16% 2, % 2,204 2,381 EBITDA CityLink A$m % % M2 A$m % % LCT/CCT/ED A$m % % M7 (50%) % % M5 A$m % % TQ A$m (26%) % US A$m % % Holding coy (TollAust, Roam) A$m % EBITDA A$m ,289 1,398 8% 1, % 1,683 1,862 Margin % 74% 74% 74% 70% 70% 76% 78% Cash Interest Expense A$m % % Cash Tax A$m (75%) Cash Earnings A$m % % 1,141 1,284 per share A$ (3%) Net Debt A$m 6,113 5,531 10,666 11,471 8% 11, % 12,212 12,194 Revenue. With traffic already reported, this was in line with expectation. EBITDA. Prop EBITDA was $1,398m vs. MRE $1,402m. While the headline number was broadly in line with expectation the mix was slightly different. Significant items included in EBITDA (prop) was $82m reflecting the AirportLink transaction and TQ integration cost, thus our estimate of $1,484m was in line with $1,480m reported. Within the growth is the uplift from the ownership of LegacyWay, AirportLink and I-95 Express Lanes of $33m. Existing roads EBITDA growth was 12.3% to $1,447m. Melbourne. Citylink. EBITDA was $564m +7.8% (restated pcp) vs. MRE $575m, thus $9m below expectation. Maintenance expense was $5m above expectation, reflecting a $3m write-off, otherwise there is a slight increase in costs of $5m. This is more than offset by a $13m increase in revenue above volume + allowed price. Sydney. SYD core EBITDA was broadly in line at $632m (ex Roam Tolling and Tollaust) vs. our estimate of $639m. $6m of the variance is accounted with the difference in maintenance expense outcomes with a step increase in LCT provisioning in 2H16. Otherwise benefits in Glide have enable costs to be stabilised. While slightly below our estimate core EBITDA growth of 16%, toll revenue growth of 13.9% and ADT growth of 7.4% continues to highlight the strength of the SYD network. Broadly, underlying cost performance continues to benefit from increased recoveries following implementation of Glide. TQ. Core EBITDA was $218m slightly above MRE of $205m with growth reflecting the impact of AirportLink and Legacy Way. A key driver of the increase was Airportlink s performance which was $6.7m better than MRE, reflecting a slightly earlier completion. Offsetting slightly lower EBITDA from Gateway/Logan -$1m, Clem7 -$0.3m and Legacy Way -$0.9m. TQ also benefited from a $5m one-off management fee for North Connect and a further $3m from other revenue (yet to be clarified). FY17 will benefit from the ongoing contribution of Legacy Way and Airportlink. Airportlink should benefit from traffic diversion as road work on Kingsford Smith Drive commence. US. EBITDA of A$90m (Ex-Drive & Corporate) was slightly better than our estimate of $85m. This reflects an uplift from FX and slightly better cost performance. The US numbers have normalised with growth expected to moderate to 40-50%, still significant as I-95 continues to optimise the tolling/volume equation. Cash interest expense. Interest expense was 9% below expectation reflecting the timing of 144A issues, thus is more of a timing issue that will normalise next year and unwind in years when the issues come to an end. 10 August
4 Cash tax has fallen dramatically from ~$30m to $9m reflecting the fall in tax paid at the M5. It is a little unclear the specific reason, but we suspect it reflects some accelerated depreciation around the new extension. This should normalise in FY17. Cashflow. Net cashflow. Net cashflow was materially stronger. The key driver was lower transaction costs in the period associated with Airport Link with only transaction fees and integration costs incurred during the period ($23m). This will unwind in FY17 with the stamp duty of $108m to be paid. Interest paid was also better by $50m contributing to the uplift. Distributions. Overall net distributions were $27m lower than expectation. A key driver of the difference was M5 dividend of $39m vs. $67m in pcp and MRE of $69m. Maintenance Capex. $60m (2H16 $34m) vs. MRE of $44m. The biggest driver was Citylink which was $5m higher than expectation. M5 has highlighted a skipped a dividend. This reflected tax paid was lower. As tax paid increases, the dividend will rebound. Historically M5 has kept $5m of cash on the balance sheet; it currently has $111m on the balance sheet, thus it is able to top up TCL cashflow by as much as $52m when needed, ie v$0.025 ps. Free Cash Flow/Coverage. Overall FCF was $926m which was $5m below MRE $931m, i.e. $ Thus at a broader level the strong trend continues with 10% cashflow growth pa reflecting underlying traffic growth on the roads and cost discipline. Cash coverage of FY16 dividend was 103%. FY17 outlook. TCL declared FY17 DPS guidance of $0.505ps, which was above our and consensus estimates of $0.50ps and represents 11% growth on pcp (14% growth in FY16). There is scope to surprise on the upside. M7 should benefit from lower financing costs and ongoing truck toll growth, thus a strong dividend performance. A normalisation of the M5 adds another $40m. These alone explain most of the growth, but we still see upside on the current guidance. There is some expectation TCL will be conservative given the pipeline of projects and the ongoing equity demand. Fig 3 TCL vs MRE expectation (Update) FY13a FY14a FY15a FY16a Source: Company data, Macquarie research, August 2016 Growth (%) MRE FY16e Variance FY17e FY18e Op C/flow (City, M2, LCT, CCT) A$m % % M1 & TQ, US cashflow A$m (0%) % Other A$m (118%) % Net cashflow A$m % % NWR Dividend A$m % % ED Dividend A$m % % M4/M5 Dividend A$m (43%) % TQ Dividend A$m (8%) % Maintenance Capex A$m % % Free cashflow A$m % % FCF per share A$ % % growth % 1.1% 11.6% 20.1% 16.0% 15.6% 18.4% 9.6% Dividend per share A$ % Coverage % 97.4% 96.2% 101.1% 103.1% 2% 102.8% 108.9% 108.6% 10 August
5 Growth Opportunities and update on key projects. While traffic remains core, the focus for TCL is shifting towards progress on key growth opportunities. At present, TCL has $6.2b of capital projects within the pipeline (ex-i-66 and 95 Atlantic Gateway project). These are spread across all regions for TCL. Current expectation is the pipeline is well funded for these smaller projects given the spread of contributions over a 6-year period. Other larger opportunities such as WD, I-66 etc will require further funding. Fig 4 TCL Project pipeline Source: TCL, Macquarie Research, August 2016 US: The US remains a key growth area for TCL with a mix of incremental and larger opportunities. I-.95/I-395. Southern I-95 Extension (US$25m). Construction has commenced as of Jul-16 with opening in late 2017, in line with expectation. An additional 14km extension is currently in negotiation with VDOT as part of the Atlantic Gateway project. I-395 (US$ m) framework has been agreed with VDOT for the express lane project, financial close expected mid-17. I-66. This remains the largest opportunity for TCL in the US. TCL is a 70% partner in a consortium (Skandia) and is one of two bidders left in the process. Proposals are due Oct16 with a preferred bidder selected in late TCL has previously indicated a commitment of ~A$0.7bn. Strategically success with the I-66 will increase its interest in Greenway when the time comes for MQA to sell its interest. BRS: While these are relatively small projects in isolation it continues to highlight TCL s strong position in facilitating discussion with the state government as well as at the council level. Logan Enhancement project (A$281m). Developing the final business case with the final proposal submitted during 1H17. The current projected timeline is for construction to commence in early 2017, with completion by mid Inner City Bypass (A$50m). Exclusive negotiations with TQ to deliver ICB upgrade, which involves widening of the ICB, the connector road between Legacy Way and Coronation Drive, Airportlink.. Expected completion is by mid VIC. Western Distributor ($3.5-4b). For TCL this remains the biggest project in the extended pipeline. While no further detail was unveiled in the result, TCL reiterated its expectation of reaching financial close by late 2017 with the current stage 4 negotiations unlikely to progress without the formation of an environmental assessment expected in the next 12 months. We currently attribute $0.40ps of value to this project. An interesting element is a slight delay of the Monash Freeway Upgrade project by ~6 months now scheduled for completion mid-fy19 vs end of FY18 previously. NSW. 10 August
6 Beyond Northconnex, which is progressing on schedule, TCL again highlighted their willingness to participate in other NSW projects including a WestConnex sell down if it appears. More broadly, the commitment from the NSW government in the recent budget including Western Harbour tunnel, Beaches Link, M5 Belmore Ramp, F6 extension is positive to its future growth outlook. 10 August
7 Fig 3 Investment Fundamentals ($m) Yr end June Valuation Citylink (pre debt) $bn 7, M2 $bn 2, QML (62.5%) $bn LCT/CCT/ED(75%)/M5(50%) $bn NWR (M7 NC) (50%) $bn 1, US Roads $bn TIDL $bn Other (incl. Net Cash) $bn -2, Total Valuation $bn 8, MRE Valuation $ NAV (pre Tax) $ Cost of Equity % 6.0% 6.0% 5.0% 8.5% 8.1% 7.7% 7.1% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% Proportionately Consolidated Revenue $m ,047 1,125 1,270 1,734 2,006 2,204 2,381 2,567 2,723 2,887 EBITDA CityLink M LCT/CCT/ED NWR (M7 NC) (50%) M4 & M QML (62.5%) US Holding coy (TollAust, Roam) EBITDA* $m ,289 1,398 1,683 1,862 2,036 2,169 2,318 EBITDA one offs $m Margin % 72% 76% 75% 74% 74% 74% 70% 76% 78% 79% 80% 80% Interest Expense $m Cash Tax $m Cash Earnings $m ,141 1,284 1,488 1,600 1,710 P/CE x Balance Sheet Total Assets $m 10,578 11,070 9,977 10,432 12,143 16,977 23,280 23,558 23,199 22,707 21,967 21,223 Net Debt $m 4,951 5,538 6,113 7,167 5,531 10,666 11,471 12,212 12,194 12,299 12,174 11,918 EV/Prop EBITDA x Ex US assets x DSCR x Net debt:ebitda x Ex DRIVE x Net Debt:Debt+Mkt cap % 22% 24% 26% 29% 24% 38% 40% 41% 41% 41% 41% 41% EFPOWA m 1,300 1,443 1,452 1,468 1,690 1,906 1,975 2,042 2,059 2,076 2,096 2,118 Closing Balance m 1,414 1,443 1,458 1,482 1,896 1,913 2,035 2,048 2,063 2,080 2,101 2,123 Managements Cash earnings Op C/flow (ex M7, M5) M1 & QML cashflow Other Net c/hflow M7 Dividend (pre tax) M1 Dividend M4/M5 Dividend QML Dividend Maintenance Capex Free cashflow per share grow th 25% 0% 9% 1% 12% 20% 16% 18% 10% 15% 7% 4% Dividend Yield % Tax Deferred % Franking % Gross up yield % Consolidated Profit and Loss Operating Revenue $m 770 1,037 1,154 1,195 1,150 1,828 2,205 2,118 2,285 2,464 2,586 2,721 EBITDA $m ,248 1,571 1,749 1,915 2,025 2,146 Depreciation & Amorit. $m Net Interest $m Associate Income $m Pre-Tax Profit $m ,074 Tax Expense $m Tax Rate % 137% 9% na 49% 22% na na 2% -2% -2% -3% -3% Minority Interests Reported Profit $m ,022 Ratios Reported EPS Growth % -332% 73% -51% 209% 43% -157% -152% 366% 18% 34% 12% 17% PE (Reported) x na RoE % Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, August 2016; are estimates. 10 August
8 Important disclosures: Recommendation definitions Macquarie - Australia/New Zealand Outperform return >3% in excess of benchmark return Neutral return within 3% of benchmark return Underperform return >3% below benchmark return Benchmark return is determined by long term nominal GDP growth plus 12 month forward market dividend yield Macquarie Asia/Europe Outperform expected return >+10% Neutral expected return from -10% to +10% Underperform expected return <-10% Macquarie South Africa Outperform expected return >+10% Neutral expected return from -10% to +10% Underperform expected return <-10% Macquarie - Canada Outperform return >5% in excess of benchmark return Neutral return within 5% of benchmark return Underperform return >5% below benchmark return Macquarie - USA Outperform (Buy) return >5% in excess of Russell 3000 index return Neutral (Hold) return within 5% of Russell 3000 index return Underperform (Sell) return >5% below Russell 3000 index return Volatility index definition* This is calculated from the volatility of historical price movements. Very high highest risk Stock should be expected to move up or down % in a year investors should be aware this stock is highly speculative. High stock should be expected to move up or down at least 40 60% in a year investors should be aware this stock could be speculative. Medium stock should be expected to move up or down at least 30 40% in a year. Low medium stock should be expected to move up or down at least 25 30% in a year. Low stock should be expected to move up or down at least 15 25% in a year. * Applicable to Asia/Australian/NZ/Canada stocks only Recommendations 12 months Note: Quant recommendations may differ from Fundamental Analyst recommendations Financial definitions All "Adjusted" data items have had the following adjustments made: Added back: goodwill amortisation, provision for catastrophe reserves, IFRS derivatives & hedging, IFRS impairments & IFRS interest expense Excluded: non recurring items, asset revals, property revals, appraisal value uplift, preference dividends & minority interests EPS = adjusted net profit / efpowa* ROA = adjusted ebit / average total assets ROA Banks/Insurance = adjusted net profit /average total assets ROE = adjusted net profit / average shareholders funds Gross cashflow = adjusted net profit + depreciation *equivalent fully paid ordinary weighted average number of shares All Reported numbers for Australian/NZ listed stocks are modelled under IFRS (International Financial Reporting Standards). Recommendation proportions For quarter ending 30 June 2016 AU/NZ Asia RSA USA CA EUR Outperform 45.17% 56.00% 36.36% 43.16% 63.39% 45.91% (for global coverage by Macquarie, 6.27% of stocks followed are investment banking clients) Neutral 36.21% 28.59% 40.26% 50.38% 29.46% 36.96% (for global coverage by Macquarie, 6.33% of stocks followed are investment banking clients) Underperform 18.62% 15.41% 23.38% 6.46% 7.14% 17.12% (for global coverage by Macquarie, 5.38% of stocks followed are investment banking clients) TCL AU vs ASX 100, & rec history (all figures in AUD currency unless noted) Note: Recommendation timeline if not a continuous line, then there was no Macquarie coverage at the time or there was an embargo period. Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, August month target price methodology TCL AU: A$12.34 based on a DCF methodology Company-specific disclosures: TCL AU: Macquarie and its affiliates collectively and beneficially own or control 1% or more of any class of 's equity securities. The analyst and/or associated parties own or have other interests in securities issued by TCL. Important disclosure information regarding the subject companies covered in this report is available at Date Stock Code (BBG code) Recommendation Target Price 19-Jul-2016 TCL AU Outperform A$ Jul-2016 TCL AU Outperform A$ May-2016 TCL AU Outperform A$ Apr-2016 TCL AU Outperform A$ Apr-2016 TCL AU Outperform A$ Oct-2015 TCL AU Outperform A$ Aug-2015 TCL AU Outperform A$ May-2015 TCL AU Outperform A$ Apr-2015 TCL AU Outperform A$ Feb-2015 TCL AU Outperform A$ Feb-2015 TCL AU Outperform A$ Jan-2015 TCL AU Outperform A$ Nov-2014 TCL AU Outperform A$ Oct-2014 TCL AU Outperform A$ Sep-2014 TCL AU Outperform A$ Aug-2014 TCL AU Outperform A$ Jul-2014 TCL AU Outperform A$ Apr-2014 TCL AU Outperform A$ Nov-2013 TCL AU Outperform A$ Oct-2013 TCL AU Outperform A$ August
9 This publication was disseminated on 09 August 2016 at 14:41 UTC. Macquarie Wealth Management Target price risk disclosures: TCL AU: Any inability to compete successfully in their markets may harm the business. This could be a result of many factors which may include geographic mix and introduction of improved products or service offerings by competitors. The results of operations may be materially affected by global economic conditions generally, including conditions in financial markets. The company is exposed to market risks, such as changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates and input prices. From time to time, the company will enter into transactions, including transactions in derivative instruments, to manage certain of these exposures. Analyst certification: We hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect our personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report. The Analysts responsible for preparing this report receive compensation from Macquarie that is based upon various factors including Macquarie Group Limited (MGL) total revenues, a portion of which are generated by Macquarie Group s Investment Banking activities. General disclosure: This research has been issued by Macquarie Securities (Australia) Limited ABN , AFSL , a Participant of the ASX and Chi-X Australia Pty Limited. This research is distributed in Australia by Macquarie Wealth Management, a division of Macquarie Equities Limited ABN AFSL ("MEL"), a Participant of the ASX, and in New Zealand by Macquarie Equities New Zealand Limited ( MENZ ) an NZX Firm. Macquarie Private Wealth s services in New Zealand are provided by MENZ. Macquarie Bank Limited (ABN , AFSL No ) ( MBL ) is a company incorporated in Australia and authorised under the Banking Act 1959 (Australia) to conduct banking business in Australia. None of MBL, MGL or MENZ is registered as a bank in New Zealand by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand under the Reserve Bank of New Zealand Act Apart from Macquarie Bank Limited ABN (MBL), any MGL subsidiary noted in this research,, is not an authorised deposit-taking institution for the purposes of the Banking Act 1959 (Australia) and that subsidiary s obligations do not represent deposits or other liabilities of MBL. MBL does not guarantee or otherwise provide assurance in respect of the obligations of that subsidiary, unless noted otherwise. This research contains general advice and does not take account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on this general advice, you should consider the appropriateness of the advice having regard to your situation. We recommend you obtain financial, legal and taxation advice before making any financial investment decision. This research has been prepared for the use of the clients of the Macquarie Group and must not be copied, either in whole or in part, or distributed to any other person. If you are not the intended recipient, you must not use or disclose this research in any way. If you received it in error, please tell us immediately by return and delete the document. We do not guarantee the integrity of any s or attached files and are not responsible for any changes made to them by any other person. Nothing in this research shall be construed as a solicitation to buy or sell any security or product, or to engage in or refrain from engaging in any transaction. This research is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but the Macquarie Group does not make any representation or warranty that it is accurate, complete or up to date. We accept no obligation to correct or update the information or opinions in it. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. The Macquarie Group accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct, indirect, consequential or other loss arising from any use of this research and/or further communication in relation to this research. The Macquarie Group produces a variety of research products, recommendations contained in one type of research product may differ from recommendations contained in other types of research. The Macquarie Group has established and implemented a conflicts policy at group level, which may be revised and updated from time to time, pursuant to regulatory requirements; which sets out how we must seek to identify and manage all material conflicts of interest. The Macquarie Group, its officers and employees may have conflicting roles in the financial products referred to in this research and, as such, may effect transactions which are not consistent with the recommendations (if any) in this research. The Macquarie Group may receive fees, brokerage or commissions for acting in those capacities and the reader should assume that this is the case. The Macquarie Group s employees or officers may provide oral or written opinions to its clients which are contrary to the opinions expressed in this research. Important disclosure information regarding the subject companies covered in this report is available at Macquarie Group 10 August
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AUSTRALIA GHC AU Price (at 06:13, 24 Aug 2015 GMT) Neutral A$1.65 Valuation - Sum of Parts A$ 1.51-1.59 12-month target A$ 1.59 12-month TSR % +1.8 Volatility Index Low GICS sector Real Estate Market cap
More informationSG Fleet Group % growth in FY17. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Catalyst: Results and contract wins.
AUSTRALIA SGF AU Price (at 07:57, 27 Oct 2016 GMT) Outperform A$3.85 Valuation - PER A$ 3.92-4.18 12-month target A$ 4.37 12-month TSR % +18.1 Volatility Index Medium GICS sector Commercial & Professional
More informationBoart Longyear. Earnings and target price revision. No change. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA BLY AU Price (at 08:01, 12 Sep 2013 GMT) Neutral A$0.50 Valuation A$ 0.71 - DCF (WACC 10.1%, beta 1.5, ERP 0.1%, RFR 0.1%, TGR 0.0%) 12-month target A$ 0.56 12-month TSR % +12.0 Volatility Index
More informationNIB Holdings. Lowest in 4 years still enough A$3.72 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst
AUSTRALIA NHF AU Price (at 09:52, 02 Mar 2016 GMT) Outperform A$3.72 Valuation A$ 3.85 - DCF (WACC 8.5%, beta 1.0, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.8%, TGR 2.5%) 12-month target A$ 4.00 12-month TSR % +11.7 Volatility
More informationOil Search. Proving up PNG A$7.11 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA OSH AU Price (at 05:10, 16 Feb 2017 GMT) Outperform A$7.11 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 8.5%, beta 1.4, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.3%) 6.70 12-month target A$ 7.60 12-month TSR % +8.2 Volatility Index Medium
More informationEclipx Group. Highlights its funding flexibility A$3.77 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision.
AUSTRALIA ECX AU Price (at 02:49, 15 Dec 2016 GMT) Outperform A$3.77 Valuation - PER A$ 3.53-3.78 12-month target A$ 4.22 12-month TSR % +16.3 Volatility Index Low/Medium GICS sector Diversified Financials
More informationAutomotive Holdings Group
AUSTRALIA AHG AU Price (at 06:14, 11 Aug 2016 GMT) Outperform A$4.61 Valuation - EV/EBITA A$ 4.09-4.63 12-month target A$ 4.36 12-month TSR % -0.2 Volatility Index Low GICS sector Retailing Market cap
More informationSeek. Progresses Zhaopin privatisation A$16.33 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA SEK AU Price (at 06:33, 07 Apr 2017 GMT) Outperform A$16.33 Valuation - Sum of Parts A$ 16.77 12-month target A$ 16.50 12-month TSR % +3.9 Volatility Index Low/Medium GICS sector Commercial &
More informationAuckland International Airport
NEW ZEALAND AIA NZ Price (at 04:00, 27 Nov 2013 GMT) Neutral NZ$3.42 Valuation NZ$ 3.37 - DCF (WACC 8.0%, beta 0.9, ERP 7.0%, RFR 4.3%, TGR 3.0%) 12-month target NZ$ 3.37 12-month TSR % +2.6 Volatility
More informationSirtex Medical. Healthy dose sales. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Catalyst: FY16 result on the 24th of August
AUSTRALIA SRX AU Price (at CLOSE#, 11 Jul 2016) Outperform A$27.88 Valuation A$ 37.93 - DCF (WACC 9.0%, beta 1.2, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.3%, TGR 1.5%) 12-month target A$ 38.00 12-month TSR % +37.4 Volatility
More informationVista Group International
NEW ZEALAND VGL NZ Price (at 03:15, 26 Feb 2015 GMT) Outperform NZ$4.35 Valuation NZ$ 4.31 - DCF (WACC 9.9%, beta 1.0, ERP 7.0%, RFR 4.0%, TGR 2.0%) 12-month target NZ$ 4.75 12-month TSR % +9.5 Volatility
More informationSilver Chef. Capital raising A$7.71 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA SIV AU Price (at 08:50, 21 Mar 2017 GMT) Neutral A$7.71 Valuation - PER A$ 6.68 12-month target A$ 6.68 12-month TSR % -7.4 Volatility Index Medium GICS sector Capital Goods Market cap A$m 278
More informationCardno. Tough half over A$2.88 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA CDD AU Price (at 04:53, 17 Feb 2015 GMT) Neutral A$2.88 Valuation - Sum of Parts A$ 2.80-3.43 12-month target A$ 3.12 12-month TSR % +18.4 Volatility Index Medium GICS sector Capital Goods Market
More informationRamsay Health Care. France begins to bite A$66.37 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst
AUSTRALIA RHC AU Price (at 06:11, 06 Aug 2015 GMT) Neutral A$66.37 Valuation A$ 64.54 - DCF (WACC 8.1%, beta 1.1, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.8%, TGR 3.0%) 12-month target A$ 70.00 12-month TSR % +7.3 Volatility Index
More informationNational Australia Bank
AUSTRALIA NAB AU Price (at 06:10, 27 Jul 2015 GMT) Outperform A$33.91 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 9.6%, beta 1.0, ERP 5.0%, RFR 5.8%) 37.74 12-month target A$ 39.39 12-month TSR % +22.1 Volatility Index Low
More informationSims Metal Management
AUSTRALIA SGM AU Price (at 5:11, 17 Nov 215 GMT) Outperform A$7.19 Valuation - EV/EBIT A$ 8.49-9.6 12-month target A$ 8.9 12-month TSR % +26.6 Volatility Index Medium GICS sector Materials Market cap A$m
More informationTox Free Solutions. Winning work again A$2.34 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA TOX AU Price (at 05:10, 30 Nov 2016 GMT) Outperform A$2.34 Valuation - EV/EBITDA A$ 2.52-3.07 12-month target A$ 2.79 12-month TSR % +23.1 Volatility Index Medium GICS sector Commercial & Professional
More informationSouthern Cross Media. Streamlining ahead of reform? A$1.37 AUSTRALIA
AUSTRALIA SXL AU Price (at 05:10, 27 Mar 2017 GMT) Neutral A$1.37 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 8.0%, beta 1.2, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.3%) 1.39 12-month target A$ 1.30 12-month TSR % +0.8 Volatility Index Medium GICS
More informationSenex Energy Production and revenue unsurprised, cash builds on lower capex
26 April 2018 Australia EQUITIES SXY AU Price (at 06:10, 26 Apr 2018 GMT) Outperform A$0.42 Valuation A$ 0.49 - DCF (WACC 9.1%, beta 1.5, ERP 4.0%, RFR 4.3%) 12-month target A$ 0.50 12-month TSR % +19.0
More informationEarnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Catalyst: 1H14 result in February Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA CBA AU Price (at 06:10, 10 Sep 2013 GMT) Neutral A$73.63 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 10.3%, beta 1.0, ERP 5.0%, RFR 5.5%) 50.40 12-month target A$ 66.15 12-month TSR % -5.0 Volatility Index Low
More informationFisher & Paykel Healthcare
NEW ZEALAND FPH NZ Price (at 05:00, 10 Jul 2015 GMT) Outperform NZ$7.03 Valuation NZ$ 7.39 - DCF (WACC 8.8%, beta 0.9, ERP 7.0%, RFR 4.5%, TGR 2.0%) 12-month target NZ$ 7.80 12-month TSR % +13.1 Volatility
More informationMeridian Energy. On tax depreciation NZ$2.08 NEW ZEALAND. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
NEW ZEALAND MEL NZ Price (at 05:00, 13 Jul 2015 GMT) Outperform NZ$2.08 Valuation NZ$ 2.50 - DCF (WACC 7.8%, beta 0.6, ERP 7.0%, RFR 3.6%, TGR 2.0%) 12-month target NZ$ 2.60 12-month TSR % +31.7 Volatility
More informationAustralian Banks. Pre-Reporting Form Guide AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Outlook
AUSTRALIA MRE vs Consensus MQG FY15 Consensus FY15 Date Profit EPS DPS Profit EPS DPS BEN 10-Aug 439 92 67 434 92 67 CBA 12-Aug 9,289 557 420 9,116 554 419 Source: Factset, Macquarie Research, August 2015
More informationHealthcare. Currency adjustments AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Outlook COH 8.0% RMD 6.9% CSL 6.0% ANN 5.0% SHL 2.6%
AUSTRALIA Recommendations: CSL Outperform P/T: $110.00 RMD Underperform P/T: $7.50 COH Outperform P/T: $100.00 SHL Outperform P/T: $24.00 ANN Outperform P/T: $26.00 RHC Outperform P/T: $75.00 A$ earnings
More informationBendigo and Adelaide Bank
AUSTRALIA AU Price (at 06:17, 30 Mar 2017 GMT) Underperform A$12.03 Valuation A$ 11.48- - Sum of Parts/GG 11.71 12-month target A$ 11.50 12-month TSR % +1.2 Volatility Index Low/Medium GICS sector Banks
More informationAustralian Mobile Market
AUSTRALIA Telstra data inclusions on key post-paid plans $130 $130 $95 $70 $55 Optus data inclusions on key post-paid plans "Everyday Connect" "Mobile Accelerate" $50 $40 Vodafone data inclusions on key
More informationWhitehaven Coal. China outlook drives impairments A$1.04 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision.
AUSTRALIA WHC AU Price (at 06:10, 13 Aug 2015 GMT) Neutral A$1.04 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 8.0%, beta 1.6, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.8%) 1.18 12-month target A$ 1.15 12-month TSR % +10.6 Volatility Index High GICS
More informationAussie Macro Moment. Budget 16/17 careful consolidation AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Outlook
AUSTRALIA Lower deficits still in train, arriving late - - - /5 /7-5 -5 Jun-9 Jun- Jun Jun-8 Jun Jun Jun- Revenue recovery remains sluggish 7 5 Australian Federal : Underlying Balance ( of GDP) 5/ Spending
More informationSingTel. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation. Maintain Outperform.
AUSTRALIA SGT AU Price (at 05:10, 06 Dec 2012 GMT) Outperform A$2.59 Volatility index Low 12-month target A$ 2.81 12-month TSR % +14.6 Valuation - Sum of Parts A$ 2.81 GICS sector Telecommunication Services
More informationCoca-Cola Amatil. Not as fizzy as it looks A$8.78 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst
AUSTRALIA CCL AU Price (at CLOSE#, 21 Aug 2015) Underperform A$8.78 Valuation A$ 8.47 - DCF (WACC 8.7%, beta 1.0, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.8%, TGR 1.9%) 12-month target A$ 8.99 12-month TSR % +7.3 Volatility Index
More informationCochlear. Roberts replaced A$88.66 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA COH AU Price (at 06:47, 26 May 2015 GMT) Outperform A$88.66 Valuation A$ 81.19 - DCF (WACC 8.0%, beta 1.0, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.8%, TGR 3.0%) 12-month target A$ 95.00 12-month TSR % +9.8 Volatility
More informationOrigin Energy. 4Q Production. ORG reported its 4 th quarter production report, following on ConocoPhilips quarterly result.
AUSTRALIA ORG AU Price (at 06:11, 30 Jul 2015 GMT) Neutral A$11.35 Valuation A$ 12.79 - DCF (WACC 10.3%, beta 1.3, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.8%, TGR 2.0%) 12-month target A$ 12.89 12-month TSR % +18.1 Volatility
More informationAust. General Insurance
AUSTRALIA June 2016 3 mth rolling market results Personal Commercial Market Average Rate Growth -3. -3.6% -3.3% GWP Growth 1.8% -0.8% 0.9% Volume Growth 2.8% 0.8% 2.1% Est. Exposure Value Growth 2. 2.
More informationUGL. Driving growth in DTZ. Earnings and target price revision. No change. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA AU Price (at 08:17, 03 Sep 2012 GMT) Underperform A$10.52 Volatility index Low 12-month target A$ 11.08 12-month TSR % +12.0 Valuation A$ - DCF (beta 1.1, ERP 5.0%, RFR 6.0%, TGR 2.5%) 15.09
More informationAustralian Banks. Money Talks vertically challenged AUSTRALIA. Inside. Majors average short positions and banks index
Jun- Dec- Jun- Dec- Jun- Dec- Jun-1 Dec-1 Jun-11 Dec-11 Jun-1 Dec-1 Jun-1 Dec-1 Jun-1 Dec-1 Jun- Dec- AUSTRALIA Repricing generally follows an election s Nov Aug 1 Sep 1 1-1 Source: RBA, Macquarie Research,
More informationCIMIC Group. Earnings and target price revision. No change. Price catalyst. Catalyst: Q1 earnings 13 April. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA CIM AU Price (at 05:10, 31 Mar 2017 GMT) Outperform A$35.93 Valuation A$ 42.69 - DCF (WACC 8.5%, beta 1.4, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.3%, TGR 2.0%) 12-month target A$ 42.50 12-month TSR % +22.0 Volatility
More informationOz Minerals. On track to meet guidance A$6.51 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA OZL AU Price (at 08:20, 22 Jul 2016 GMT) Underperform A$6.51 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 9.0%, beta 1.4, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.3%) 4.31 12-month target A$ 5.00 12-month TSR % -21.4 Volatility Index High
More informationAMP. Earnings and target price revision. No change. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA AU Price (at CLOSE#, 19 Mar 213) Underperform A$5.7 Volatility index Low 12-month target A$ 4.99 12-month TSR % +3.6 Valuation - Sum of Parts A$ 4.68 GICS sector Insurance Market cap A$m 14,855
More informationTelstra Corporation. Vodafone better, but far from good A$6.43 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision.
AUSTRALIA TLS AU Price (at 11:23, 21 Jul 2015 GMT) Neutral A$6.43 Valuation A$ 6.37 - DCF (WACC 6.8%, beta 0.8, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.8%, TGR 1.2%) 12-month target A$ 6.30 12-month TSR % +3.3 Volatility Index
More informationKaroon Gas. What a difference a day makes A$1.63 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst
AUSTRALIA KAR AU Price (at 05:10, 16 Mar 2017 GMT) Outperform A$1.63 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 11.1%, beta 1.7, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.3%) 2.79 12-month target A$ 2.40 12-month TSR % +47.7 Volatility Index High
More informationKingsgate Consolidated
AUSTRALIA KCN AU Price (at 6:11, 31 Jul 215 GMT) Underperform A$.67 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 12.%, beta 1.6, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.8%).3 12-month target A$.3 12-month TSR % -54.9 Volatility Index Very High GICS
More informationAventus Retail Property Fund
AUSTRALIA AVN AU Price (at 06:10, 29 Apr 2016 GMT) A$2.16 Volatility Index Low GICS sector Real Estate Market cap A$m 741 30-day avg turnover A$m 0.7 Number shares on issue m 343.2 Investment fundamentals
More informationNuplex Industries. Should benefit from a weak Kiwi NZ$4.55 NEW ZEALAND. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision.
NEW ZEALAND NPX NZ Price (at 05:00, 31 Jul 2015 GMT) Outperform NZ$4.55 Valuation NZ$ 4.40 - DCF (WACC 12.5%, beta 1.4, ERP 7.0%, RFR 4.5%, TGR 2.0%) 12-month target NZ$ 4.75 12-month TSR % +10.6 Volatility
More informationOz Minerals. Solid start to the year A$5.62 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA OZL AU Price (at 6:24, 21 Apr 216 GMT) Underperform A$5.62 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 1%, beta 1.4, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.8%) 4.61 12-month target A$ 4.6 12-month TSR % -15.5 Volatility Index High GICS
More informationGeneration Healthcare REIT All about spread Event
AUSTRALIA GHC AU Price (at 04:51, 14 Feb 2015 GMT) Neutral A$1.60 Valuation - Sum of Parts A$ 1.18-1.26 12-month target A$ 1.59 12-month TSR % +5.1 Volatility Index Low GICS sector Real Estate Market cap
More informationSpotless Group Holdings
AUSTRALIA SPO AU Price (at 05:45, 31 Jan 2017 GMT) Neutral A$0.94 Valuation - Peer multiples A$ 1.02 12-month target A$ 1.02 12-month TSR % +18.3 Volatility Index High GICS sector Commercial & Professional
More informationPerseus Mining. Revised Sissingué plan A$0.31 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA PRU AU Price (at 5:1, 31 Mar 217 GMT) Neutral A$.31 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 1.%, beta.4, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.3%).35 12-month target A$.32 12-month TSR % +3.2 Volatility Index Very High GICS sector
More informationAustralian Banks. If it s too good to be true AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Outlook. Impact of repricing and capital from additional 10% investor RWA
CBA CBA CBA CBA AUSTRALIA Changes to lending rates (bps) bps Owner Occupier Investor P&I IO P&I IO 0 20 25 36 CBA 3 25 24 26 7 7 25 25 3 8 23 28 BEN 0 0 25 25 Source: Company data, Macquarie research,
More informationSuper Retail Group (SUL AU) Are we there yet?
25 October 2018 Australia EQUITIES SUL AU Price (at 09:01, 24 Oct 2018 GMT) Neutral A$8.33 Valuation A$ 8.30-9.50 - EV/EBITA 12-month target A$ 8.70 12-month TSR % +10.9 Volatility Index GICS sector Low/Medium
More informationNational Australia Bank
AUSTRALIA NAB AU Price (at 08:23, 03 Jul 2012 GMT) Outperform A$23.68 Volatility index Low 12-month target A$ 27.66 12-month TSR % +24.9 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 12.6%, beta 1.0, ERP 5.0%, RFR 5.8%) 25.14
More informationSandfire Resources. Swings to net cash A$5.34 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA SFR AU Price (at 6:11, 7 Jul 216 GMT) Outperform A$5.34 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 9.%, beta 1.4, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.3%) 5.82 12-month target A$ 6.1 12-month TSR % +18.3 Volatility Index Medium GICS
More informationNEW ZEALAND Price Valuation NZ$ 1.74 Event 12-month target NZ$ month TSR % -10.1
NEW ZEALAND GNE NZ Price (at 05:06, 24 Feb 2015 GMT) Underperform NZ$2.20 Valuation NZ$ 1.74 - DCF (WACC 8.1%, beta 0.6, ERP 7.0%, RFR 3.6%, TGR 2.1%) 12-month target NZ$ 1.82 12-month TSR % -10.1 Volatility
More informationAustralian Banks. Funding markets open for now
AUSTRALIA Weekly performance 4% 2% % -2% -4% -6% -8% -1% Source: IRESS, August 212 Rolling monthly performance 8% 6% 4% 2% % -2% -4% -6% Source: IRESS, August 212 Rolling yearly performance % 15% 5% -5%
More informationFisher & Paykel Healthcare
NEW ZEALAND FPH NZ Price (at 03:59, 16 Mar 2015 GMT) Outperform NZ$6.63 Valuation NZ$ 6.86 - DCF (WACC 8.8%, beta 0.9, ERP 7.0%, RFR 4.5%, TGR 2.0%) 12-month target NZ$ 7.25 12-month TSR % +11.6 Volatility
More informationAged Care. Propco sale & lease back A$2.71 A$5.75 A$6.15 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Outlook
AUSTRALIA JHC AU Price (at 06:10, 27 Apr 2015 GMT) Outperform A$2.71 Valuation A$ 2.97 - DCF (WACC 9.1%, beta 1.1, ERP 5.0%, RFR 4.5%, TGR 2.3%) 12-month target A$ 3.00 12-month TSR % +14.7 Volatility
More informationOrocobre. Upside exposure fading. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Catalyst: Update on projects or Q1 report
AUSTRALIA ORE AU Price (at 5:11, 28 Feb 217 GMT) Neutral A$3.8 Valuation - DCF (WACC 1.%) A$ 1.34 12-month target A$ 3.17 12-month TSR % +2.9 Volatility Index High GICS sector Materials Market cap A$m
More informationRegis Resources. Strong 1H15 result A$1.29 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA RRL AU Price (at 7:29, 13 2 GMT) Outperform A$1.29 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 9.%, beta 1.5, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.8%) 1.68 12-month target A$ 1.7 12-month TSR % +37.2 Volatility Index High GICS sector
More informationKiwi Property Group. Land banking for the future NZ$1.43 NEW ZEALAND. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision.
NEW ZEALAND KPG NZ Price (at 08:19, 07 Apr 2017 GMT) Outperform NZ$1.43 Valuation NZ$ 1.53 - DCF (WACC 6.9%, beta 0.6, ERP 7.0%, RFR 3.5%, TGR 2.0%) 12-month target NZ$ 1.53 12-month TSR % +11.8 Volatility
More informationDowner EDI Two out of three ain t bad Event
AUSTRALIA DOW AU Price (at 06:26, 01 Dec 2016 GMT) Outperform A$6.08 Valuation - Sum of Parts A$ 5.69-6.38 12-month target A$ 6.40 12-month TSR % +9.6 Volatility Index Medium GICS sector Commercial & Professional
More informationBuilders Barometer. Rising damp AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Outlook
Jan 00 Mar 01 May 02 Jul 03 Sep 04 Nov 05 Jan 07 Mar 08 May 09 Jul 10 Sep 11 Nov 12 Jan 14 Mar 15 May 16 AUSTRALIA Rising damp Event The ABS released February 2017 building approvals data. Seasonallyadjusted,
More informationGenworth Mortgage Insurance Australia
AUSTRALIA GMA AU Price (at 07:29, 05 Aug 2015 GMT) Outperform A$3.50 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 12.0%, beta 1.6, ERP 5.0%, RFR 4.5%) 3.52 12-month target A$ 3.47 12-month TSR % +9.2 Volatility Index Medium
More informationPilbara Minerals (PLS AU) Ramp-up gaining traction
17 January 219 Australia EQUITIES PLS AU Price (at 5:1, 16 Jan 219 GMT) Outperform A$.7 Valuation A$ 1.11 - DCF (WACC 1.%, beta 1.6, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.8%) 12-month target A$ 1.2 12-month TSR % +72.7 Volatility
More informationANZ Bank. The Dis-Associates. Earnings and target price revision. No change. Price catalyst. Catalyst: 3Q15 Trading Update. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA ANZ AU Price (at 07:51, 03 Jul 2015 GMT) Underperform A$32.46 Valuation - DDM/PE A$ 32.52 12-month target A$ 33.91 12-month TSR % +10.0 Volatility Index Low GICS sector Banks Market cap A$m 89,752
More informationTatts Group. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation. Maintain Underperform on valuation grounds.
AUSTRALIA TTS AU Price (at 8:37, 23 Aug 212 GMT) Underperform A$2.79 Volatility index Low 12-month target A$ 2.45 12-month TSR % -6.8 Valuation - Sum of Parts A$ 2.4-2.47 GICS sector Consumer Services
More informationCSL: Global plasma report
AUSTRALIA AU Price (at 10:49, 11 Apr 2013 GMT) Outperform A$59.35 Volatility index Low 12-month target A$ 63.85 12-month TSR % +9.6 Valuation A$ 59.84 - DCF (WACC 8.5%, beta 0.9, ERP 5.0%, RFR 5.0%, TGR
More informationMacquarie Atlas Roads Group
AUSTRALIA MQA AU Price (at 06:10, 21 Jul 2015 GMT) Outperform A$3.14 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 7.0%, beta 1.0, ERP 5.0%, RFR 2.2%) 4.17 12-month target A$ 3.87 12-month TSR % +29.5 Volatility Index Low/Medium
More informationRamsay Health Care (RHC AU) RHC UK on the mend?
17 October 2018 Australia EQUITIES RHC AU Price (at 05:48, 17 Oct 2018 GMT) Outperform A$54.18 Valuation A$ 68.50 - DCF (WACC 7.4%, beta 0.9, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.7%, TGR 3.7%) 12-month target A$ 68.50 12-month
More informationPanAust. Larger impairment and dividend cut A$1.35 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst
AUSTRALIA PNA AU Price (at 7:6, 19 Feb 215 GMT) Outperform A$1.35 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 11.%, beta 1.7, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.8%) 1.73 12-month target A$ 1.7 12-month TSR % +25.9 Volatility Index High GICS
More informationAustralian Banks. Insolent Insolvencies
AUSTRALIA Insolvencies Stubborn # of Insolvencies 17, 16, 15, 14, 13, 12, 11, 1, Source: ASIC, Macquarie Research, Dec 212 WA/VIC insolvencies deterioration 2.4 2.2 Jan- 2 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1 Source: ASIC,
More informationDexus Property Group. Infra driving industrial demand A$9.94 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision.
AUSTRALIA DXS AU Price (at 06:10, 06 Apr 2017 GMT) Neutral A$9.94 Valuation - NAV A$ 9.20-9.57 12-month target A$ 9.57 12-month TSR % +1.0 Volatility Index Low GICS sector Real Estate Market cap A$m 9,621
More informationFortescue Metals Group
AUSTRALIA FMG AU Price (at 5:1, 5 Mar 215 GMT) Neutral A$2.29 Valuation A$ 2.6 - DCF (WACC 1.%, beta 1.4, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.8%, TGR 2.6%) 12-month target A$ 2.6 12-month TSR % +16. Volatility Index High GICS
More informationThe quiet achiever. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Catalyst: July building approvals 30 August. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA ABC AU Price (at 08:02, 16 Aug 2012 GMT) Outperform A$2.90 Volatility index Low/Medium 12-month target A$ 3.10 12-month TSR % +13.0 Valuation A$ 3.18 - DCF (WACC 10.0%, beta 1.2, ERP 4.5%, RFR
More informationIndependence Group NL
AUSTRALIA IGO AU Price (at 12:29, 26 Oct 216 GMT) Outperform A$4.25 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 8.4%, beta 1.2, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.3%) 3.98 12-month target A$ 5. 12-month TSR % +2.2 Volatility Index High GICS
More informationIron Mountain. US$10 worth Recalling at investor day US$31.83 UNITED STATES. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision.
UNITED STATES IRM US Price (at 20:03, 07 Oct 2015 GMT) Outperform US$31.83 Valuation - DCF (WACC 6.1%) US$ 40.00 12-month target US$ 40.00 12-month TSR % +31.6 GICS sector Real Estate Market cap US$m 6,711
More informationCarsales.com. Motoring along nicely A$10.23 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA CRZ AU Price (at 9:48, 18 Feb 15 GMT) Outperform A$1.23 Valuation A$ 12.59 - DCF (WACC 8.1%, beta 1.2, ERP 5., RFR 3.8%, TGR 3.) 12-month target A$ 12.3 12-month TSR % +24.1 Volatility Index
More informationAUSTRALIA Price Valuation A$ 7.52 Event 12-month target A$ month TSR % +3.4
AUSTRALIA ILU AU Price (at 05:10, 19 Feb 2015 GMT) Neutral A$7.59 Valuation A$ 7.52 - DCF (WACC 9.0%, beta 1.5, ERP 5.0%, RFR 4.5%, TGR 3.9%) 12-month target A$ 7.50 12-month TSR % +3.4 Volatility Index
More informationSingTel. Optus rises A$3.98 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA SGT AU Price (at 05:10, 12 Feb 2015 GMT) Outperform A$3.98 Valuation - Sum of Parts A$ 4.64-4.73 12-month target A$ 4.69 12-month TSR % +22.4 Volatility Index Low GICS sector Telecommunication
More informationAdelaide Brighton. Overcoming headwinds A$5.45 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA ABC AU Price (at 09:22, 23 Feb 2017 GMT) Outperform A$5.45 Valuation A$ 6.40 - DCF (WACC 7.8%, beta 1.2, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.3%, TGR 2.0%) 12-month target A$ 6.30 12-month TSR % +2 Volatility Index
More information3P Learning. Coming to America... A$2.55 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA 3PL AU Price (at 09:19, 02 Mar 2015 GMT) Outperform A$2.55 Valuation - DCF A$ 2.65-3.35 12-month target A$ 3.00 12-month TSR % +18.9 Volatility Index Low/Medium GICS sector Consumer Services
More informationEarnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA TLS AU Price (at 13:07, 19 Apr 2012 GMT) Outperform A$3.39 Volatility index Low 12-month target A$ 3.55 12-month TSR % +13.0 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 9.6%, beta 0.9, ERP 6.0%, TGR 1.0%) 3.55
More informationANZ Bank. What execution risk? Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Catalyst: 1Q17 Trading update, February 2017.
AUSTRALIA ANZ AU Price (at 09:15, 18 Jan 2017 GMT) Neutral A$30.11 Valuation A$ 30.69- - Sum of Parts/GG 31.47 12-month target A$ 31.00 12-month TSR % +8.4 Volatility Index Low/Medium GICS sector Banks
More informationJB Hi-Fi & Harvey Norman
AUSTRALIA HVN AU Price (at 06:10, 09 Sep 2015 GMT) Underperform A$3.96 Valuation - EV/EBIT A$ 4.16-4.56 12-month target A$ 4.36 12-month TSR % +12.0 Volatility Index Low Market cap A$m 4,523 30-day avg
More informationQR National. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA QRN AU Price (at 05:10, 21 Nov 2012 GMT) Outperform A$3.48 Volatility index Low 12-month target A$ 4.10 12-month TSR % +21.0 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 8.2%, beta 1.0, ERP 5.0%, RFR 5.0%) 4.12
More informationAPA Group. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst
AUSTRALIA APA AU Price (at 13:13, 22 Aug 2012 GMT) A$4.78 Volatility index Low GICS sector Utilities Market cap A$m 3,081 30-day avg turnover A$m 16.1 Number shares on issue m 644.5 Investment fundamentals
More informationGenesis Energy. A 9% FCF yield and you call underperform? NZ$1.71 NEW ZEALAND. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision.
NEW ZEALAND GNE NZ Price (at 06:49, 29 Jul 2015 GMT) Underperform NZ$1.71 Valuation NZ$ 1.60 - DCF (WACC 8.0%, beta 0.6, ERP 7.0%, RFR 3.5%, TGR 2.1%) 12-month target NZ$ 1.65 12-month TSR % +6.1 Volatility
More informationBillabong International
AUSTRALIA BBG AU Price (at 06:10, 27 Aug 2012 GMT) A$1.35 Volatility index Very High GICS sector Consumer Durables & Apparel Market cap A$m 644 30-day avg turnover A$m 4.4 Number shares on issue m 478.9
More informationOz Minerals. Raises copper production outlook A$9.08 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst
AUSTRALIA OZL AU Price (at 7:28, 3 Jan 27 GMT) Neutral A$9.8 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 9.%, beta.4, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.3%) 8.48 2-month target A$ 9.3 2-month TSR % +4.6 Volatility Index High GICS sector Materials
More informationFairfax / REA Group. No housing boom here. A$0.81 Valuation A$ Sum of Parts 12-month target A$ month TSR % +16.0
AUSTRALIA FXJ AU Price (at 05:11, 03 Nov 2016 GMT) Outperform A$0.81 Valuation A$ 0.88 - Sum of Parts 12-month target A$ 0.90 12-month TSR % +16.0 Volatility Index Low/Medium Market cap A$m 1,863 30-day
More informationPremier Investments. Making a move? A$14.18 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA PMV AU Price (at 09:06, 29 Mar 2017 GMT) Outperform A$14.18 Valuation - Sum of Parts A$ 17.19 12-month target A$ 17.92 12-month TSR % +30.4 Volatility Index Low/Medium GICS sector Retailing Market
More informationUS Economics. State of the Union Growth, rates, and equities NORTH AMERICA. In a nutshell. Our key views on growth, policy, and rates
NORTH AMERICA In a nutshell The US expansion is poised to continue Near-term data may surprise on the upside and show an economy expanding at an underlying 2.5% pace Longer-term growth should decelerate
More informationSaracen Mineral Holdings
AUSTRALIA SAR AU Price (at 5:, Jan 17 GMT) Neutral A$1.11 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 5.%, beta.4, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.3%) 1.19 12-month target A$ 1. 12-month TSR % +.5 Volatility Index High GICS sector Materials
More informationMMG. A year of consolidation in 2017 AUSTRALIA/HONG KONG. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA/HONG KONG AU / 128 HK Outperform Price (at 4:, 13 Mar 217 GMT) A$4.9/HK$2.85 Valuation - DCF (WACC 7.%, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.3%) A$4.86/HK$2.85 12-month target A$5.5/HK$3.2 12-month TSR % +12.2 Volatility
More informationSilver Lake Resources
AUSTRALIA SLR AU Price (at 12:42, 27 Jan 215 GMT) Neutral A$.25 Valuation - DCF (WACC 1.%) A$.23 12-month target A$.23 12-month TSR % -8. Volatility Index Very High GICS sector Materials Market cap A$m
More informationNewcrest Mining. Strong production result A$21.37 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst
AUSTRALIA NCM AU Price (at 5:37, 27 Oct 216 GMT) Neutral A$21.37 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 5.%, beta.8, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.3%) 15.8 12-month target A$ 24. 12-month TSR % +13.9 Volatility Index Medium GICS sector
More informationCoca-Cola Amatil. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA CCL AU Price (at 07:11, 11 Sep 2013 GMT) Neutral A$12.00 Valuation A$ 12.03 - DCF (WACC 7.8%, beta 1.0, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.7%, TGR 3.2%) 12-month target A$ 12.98 12-month TSR % +12.8 Volatility
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