SILVER. Presentation by Florian Grummes

Transcription

1 21st of June 2018 Commodity Update SILVER Presentation by Florian Grummes

2 Disclaimer & Limitation of Liability All published information represents the opinion and analysis of Mr Florian Grummes, based on data available to him, at the time of writing. Mr. Grummes's opinions are his own and are not a recommendation or an offer to buy or sell securities. Mr. Grummes is an independent analyst who receives no compensation of any kind from any groups, individuals or corporations. As trading and investing in any financial markets may involve serious risk of loss, Mr. Grummes recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction and do your own due diligence and research when making any kind of a transaction with financial ramifications. Although a qualified and experienced stock market analyst, Florian Grummes is not a Registered Securities Advisor. Therefore Mr. Grummes's opinions on the market and stocks can only be construed as a solicitation to buy and sell securities when they are subject to the prior approval and endorsement of a Registered Securities Advisor operating in accordance with the appropriate regulations in your area of jurisdiction. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. The passing on and reproduction of this report is only legal with a written permission of the author.

3 With the silver market in a corrective phase, but demand for conductive metals on the rise, is now the best time to invest in silver? 3

4 SUPPLY AND DEMAND Silver supply comes from: Mine production (mainly as a by-product, declined by 4.1% in 2017, Moz or 26,502t Net Goverment Sales (not anymore since 2013) Scrap (global scrap supply declined in 2017) Silver demand comes from: Jewelry (malleability, reflectivity, and luster make silver a beautiful choice..) Coins & Bars (traditionally people accumulated their wealth in the form of silver coins..) Silverware (e.g. eating and serving utensils made of or plated with silver..) Electrical & Electronics (electronics assembly, contacts in electrical switches, e.g gr of silver in every iphone..) Brazing and soldering (Silver s high tensile strength & ductility to create joints between two metal pieces..) Photography (e.g. photosensitivity, silver halide in photographic film responds to light, leaving a latent image behind. Photovoltaic (e.g. photovoltaic cells/solar industry) Ethylene Oxide (Silver acts as a catalyst to produce chemicals e.g. sterilization services for pharmaceutical industries) Other Industrial (e.g. as a catalyst by absorbing oxygen, which kills bacteria, antibiotics in medicine..) Investment demand (e.g. ETP/ETF Inventory Build, e.g. ishares Silver Trust SLV) Exchange Inventory Build (COMEX Futures inventory) 20:59 4

5 SUPPLY AND DEMAND 209 Edelmetall Analyse Silberedition 20:59 5

6 LARGEST SILVER PRODUCING COUNTRIES Country Production 2017 Change Reserves 1. Mexico 5,600 MT 4.48% 37,000 MT 2. Peru 4,500 MT 9.76% 93,000 MT 3. China 2,500 MT unknown 39,000 MT 4. Russia 1,600 MT 1.91% 55,000 MT 5. Poland 1,400 MT 10.24% 89,000 MT 6. Chile MT % 27,000 MT 7. Australia 1,200 MT % 89,000 MT 8. Bolivia 1,200 MT 11.11% 22,000 MT 9. Kazakhstan 1,200 MT 1.60% unknown 10. USA 1,020 MT 11.00% 25,000 MT 20:59 6

7 MONTHLY CHART 20:59 7

8 WEEKLY CHART 20:59 8

9 DAILY CHART 20:59 9

10 COT-REPORT 20:59 10

11 SENTIMENT Close to excessive pessimism 20:59 11

12 SEASONALITY We are here 20:59 12

13 GOLD 20:59 13

14 GOLD/SILVER RATIO 20:59 14

15 SILVER MINING STOCKS Company Country Production 2017 AISC Pan American Silver Corp Vancouver, Canada 24,980 Mio. Oz 10,79 USD 2. Hochschild Mining London, United Kingdome 19,141 Mio. Oz 12,30 USD 3. Coeur Mining Chicago, USA 15,582 Mio. Oz. 15,90 USD 4. Hecla Mining Burke, USA 12,484 Mio. Oz. 7,86 USD 5. Tahoe Resources Reno, USA 9,782 Mio. Oz. 8,91 USD 6. First Majestic Silver Vancouver, Canada 9,748 Mio. Oz 13,82 USD 7. Fortuna Silver Mines Vancouver, Canada 8,469 Mio. Oz. 6,36 USD 8. Silvercorp Metals Vancouver, Canada 5,966 Mio. Oz. 3,34 USD 9. SSR Mining Vancouver, Canada 5,330 Mio. Oz. 14,30 USD 10. Endeavour Silver Vancouver, Canada 4,920 Mio. Oz. 16,96 USD 20:59 15

16 SILVER MINING STOCKS 20:59 16

17 DAILY CHART 20:59 17

18 CONCLUSION Gold and Silver are very close to their bottom Silver is very vulnerable to increasing investment demand Gold oversold on the weekly & daily chart, Silver oversold on the daily chart Sentiment shows excessive pessimism (final panic in the next two weeks?) Positive seasonal cycle starts in July At least a strong summer-rally is very likely (starting in July) Minimum target for Gold $US 1,350 Minimum target for Silver $US If Gold breaks out above $US1,350 we will see gold around US$ 1,500 until December and silver at least at US$ maybe even US$ :59 18

19 THE MIDAS TOUCH GOLD MODEL 20:59 19

20 Free analysis & research on our website Weekly free update on our Gold Model Consulting for mining companies Funding & financing for mining companies Media coverage & promotion Cryptocurrency consulting & trading 20:59 20

21 Thank you very much Florian Grummes