Study on the property investment climate in Europe - Measurement II/2016. Report Frankfurt am Main / Hamburg December 2016

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1 Study on the property investment climate in Europe - Measurement II/1 Report Frankfurt am Main / Hamburg December 1

2 Overview 1 Study design Indicators Detailed findings

3 1 Study design UMH-CM Method and details of study implementation. Method Sample Sample size Weighting Duration of interview Computer-aided telephone interviewing (CATI). Address-based survey of real estate investors, planners, project developers and architects. The companies surveyed only qualified as part of the sample if the total value of their real estate holdings was > 0 and non-self-used real estate accounted for at least % of the total managed real estate portfolio. N= 175 net interviews, n= in Germany, n= 1 in France, n= in UK Not weighted. 15 minutes on average. Dates of survey 1 October 1 to December 1

4 Overview 1 Study design Indicators Detailed findings

5 Indicators UMH-CM Climate index: Constituent elements of the property investment climate indicators and weightings. Investment Climate Index (property investors) Germany:.5 (1/II) France: 8. (1/II) UK: 1. (1/II) 5.0% Market structure General environment 5.0% 5.0% Location factors Expectations 5.0%

6 Indicators Climate index under pressure in UK and Germany UMH-CM.1.1

7 Indicators UMH-CM Improvement in France, downward trend in UK and Germany. Climate index: Overview of indexes / All countries comparison 1-1 Germany France UK ,9 8,1 9, 9,9 7, , ,, 8, 7,0 7,0 8, ,9, 71,5 8,, 1, st nd 1st nd 1st nd 1st nd 1st nd 1st nd 1st nd 1st nd 1st nd wave wave wave Base: All respondents (1 1st wave n=17, nd wave n=1/ 15 1st wave n= 15, nd wave n=171/ 1 1st wave n= 11, nd wave n=175) Due to fundamental differences in composition, the individual indicators are not directly comparable!

8 Indicators UMH-CM Further decline in Germany, especially with regard to market structure and expectations. Climate index: Overview of indicators / Germany comparison 1-1 Location factors Market structure Expectations General environment ,7 71,0 7, 7,9 9, 8, ,7 7, 71, 71,,8 8, ,0 5,7,,9 0,9 59, , 71,5 9,1 71,9 9, 8, st nd 1st nd 1st nd 1st nd 1st nd 1st nd 1st nd 1st nd 1st nd 1st nd 1st nd 1st nd wave wave wave wave Base: All respondents (1 1st wave n=75, nd wave n=/ 15 1st wave n=81, nd wave n=75/ 1 1st wave n=1, nd wave n=) Due to fundamental differences in composition, the individual indicators are not directly comparable!

9 Indicators UMH-CM Significant improvement in expectations in France, but general environment rated less favourably. Climate index: Overview of indicators / France comparison 1-1 Location factors Market structure Expectations General environment ,0 7,5 7,7 71, 8,8 71, , 7,5 8,1 9,7 9,7, ,7 5, 5,9 59, 1, 5, ,8 8,, 7,1 8,1, st nd 1st nd 1st nd 1st nd 1st nd 1st nd 1st nd 1st nd 1st nd 1st nd 1st nd 1st nd wave wave wave wave Base: All respondents (1 1st wave n=, nd wave n=9/ 15 1st wave n=, nd wave n=/ 1 1st wave n=, nd wave n=1) Due to fundamental differences in composition, the individual indicators are not directly comparable!

10 Indicators UMH-CM Marked downturn in UK with regard to expectations and location factors. Climate index: Overview of indicators / UK comparison 1-1 Location factors Market structure Expectations General environment ,7 7, 77, 7,1 7,, ,5,1,0 8,5 9, 9, ,5,8,0, 5,8, ,8 8, 8, 8,9 7, 7, st nd 1st nd 1st nd 1st nd 1st nd 1st nd 1st nd 1st nd 1st nd 1st nd 1st nd 1st nd wave wave wave wave Base: All respondents (1 1st wave n=, nd wave n=5/ 15 1st wave n=51, nd wave n=5/ 1 1st wave n=, nd wave n=) Due to fundamental differences in composition, the individual indicators are not directly comparable!

11 Overview 1. Study design. Indicators. Detailed findings

12 Overview. Detailed findings.1 General environment. Factors influencing investment decisions. Expectations. Risks and investment strategies

13 General environment UMH-CM Very strong focus on returns in UK and among investment companies. Importance of return on investment, security and liquidity in investment decisions ranked top Country Total (n=175) Return Liquidity Security No ranking 55 5 Germany (n=) UK (n=) 7 18 France (n=1) Sector Real estate funds (n=7) Property investment companies (n=1) 7 Project developers/ construction companies (n=1) Insurers/pension funds/ foundations/banks (n=) Other investors (n=) 1 Base: All respondents (n=175); values in % Question b: Please tell me which of the following factors is generally the most important for your company when making investment decisions at present?

14 General environment UMH-CM Creditworthiness of tenants and local regulations have the biggest impact on investment decisions. Importance of general environment (top box (1-) on -point scale) Credit rating of tenants 0% state: important or very important 0% state: important or very important Local regulations and restrictions Real estate construction quality Continuity of legislation Continuity of tax law Transparency with regard to available real estate market data International standards (e.g. regarding corporate accounting) Total (n=175) Germany (n=) UK (n=) France (n=1) Stability of exchange rates Base: All respondents (n=175); values in %; top box Question : How important are the following conditions/factors for your company or your real estate investment activity? Scale: 1 = very important, = not important at all

15 General environment UMH-CM UK respondents report least impact of Brexit on the British property market. Impact of Brexit on the UK property market Country Total (n=175) strong impact moderate impact little impact no impact don't know/no answer Germany (n=) 9 UK (n=) 5 8 France (n=1) Sector Real estate funds (n=7) Property investment companies (n=1) 7 Project developers/ construction companies (n=1) 9 Insurers/pension funds/ foundations/banks (n=) Other investors (n=) 1 Base: All respondents (n=175); values in % Question a: What is your current assessment of the impact of Brexit on the UK property market?

16 General environment UMH-CM Only limited impact of Brexit on local real estate markets in Germany and France. Impact of Brexit on the property market in Germany / France 1 Country Total (n=15) strong impact moderate impact little impact no impact don't know/no answer 9 Germany (n=) France (n=1) Sector Real estate funds (n=1!) Property investment companies (n=1!) 19 5 Project developers/ construction companies (n=) 8 1 Insurers/pension funds/ foundations/banks (n=) 17 9 Other investors (n=7) 19 Base: All respondents in Germany and France (n=15); values in % Question b: What is your current assessment of the impact of Brexit on your domestic property market?

17 Overview. Detailed findings.1 General environment. Factors influencing investment decisions. Expectations. Risks and investment strategies

18 Factors influencing investment decisions UMH-CM The demand for space/supply situation is the most important overall factor in investment decisions. (Very) important factors when making an investment decision Top box (1-) 0% state: important or very important 0% state: important or very important Demand for space/supply of space Economic outlook for the investment location Capital market situation Terms of credit Fiscal climate Own liquidity situation (Real estate) legislation Demographics National competitors Regulatory environment Inflation performance at investment location Construction cost trends Financing opportunities (e.g. through acquisition of holdings in companies) Competition from other types of investment Currency stability International competitors Total (n=175) Germany (n=) UK (n=) France (n=1) Base: All respondents (n=175); values in %; top box Question 18: How important for your company are the following factors in influencing your investment decisions? Scale: 1 = very important, = not important at all

19 Overview. Detailed findings.1 General environment. Factors influencing investment decisions. Expectations. Risks and investment strategies

20 Expectations UMH-CM More positive assessment of the economic situation of companies in France and Germany. Assessment of own company s economic situation Country Total (n=175) (1) significantly better () () () (5) () significantly worse don't know/no answer Ø 9. Germany (n=) UK (n=) France (n=1) Sector Real estate funds (n=7) Property investment companies (n=1) Project developers/ construction companies (n=1) 55.5 Insurers/pension funds/ foundations/banks (n=) Other investors (n=) Base: All respondents (n=175); values in % Question 9: Would you say that your company s economic situation is better or worse now compared to a year ago? Scale: 1 = significantly better, = significantly worse

21 Expectations UMH-CM French companies are positive about their economic situation going forward. Assessment of own company s economic situation over the next 1 months Country Total (n=175) (1) significantly improve () () () (5) () significantly worsen don't know/no answer Ø Germany (n=) UK (n=) France (n=1) 8 5. Sector Real estate funds (n=7) Property investment companies (n=1) Project developers/ construction companies (n=1) Insurers/pension funds/ foundations/banks (n=) Other investors (n=) 1. Base: All respondents (n=175); values in % Question : Do you think that your company s economic situation will improve or get worse over the next 1 months? Scale: 1 = significantly improve, = significantly worsen

22 Expectations UMH-CM Relatively negative assessment of the general economic situation in the UK. Assessment of general economy over the next 1 months Country Total (n=175) (1) significantly improve () () () (5) () significantly worsen don't know/no answer Ø Germany (n=) 1.0 UK (n=) France (n=1) Sector Real estate funds (n=7) Property investment companies (n=1) Project developers/ construction companies (n=1) Insurers/pension funds/ foundations/banks (n=) Other investors (n=) Base: All respondents (n=175); values in % Question 11: And what about the general economic situation in (country) in 1 months? Scale: 1 = significantly improve, = significantly worsen

23 Expectations UMH-CM The climate for investment in office properties over the next 1 months is mostly viewed with concern. Assessment of investment climate for office properties over the next 1 months Country Total (n=175) (1) significantly improve () () () (5) () significantly worsen don't know/no answer Ø Germany (n=) UK (n=) 8.0 France (n=1) Sector Real estate funds (n=7) Property investment companies (n=1) Project developers/ construction companies (n=1) Insurers/pension funds/ foundations/banks (n=) Other investors (n=) Base: All respondents (n=175) values in % Question 1: And what about the climate for real estate investment in office buildings in (country) over the next 1 months? Scale: 1 = significantly improve, = significantly worsen '

24 Expectations UMH-CM More negative expectations in the UK regarding the investment climate over the next 1 months. Assessment of investment climate for property over the next 1 months Country Total (n=175) (1) significantly improve () () () (5) () significantly worsen don't know/no answer Ø.8 Germany (n=) UK (n=) 1.5 France (n=1) Sector Real estate funds (n=7) Property investment companies (n=1) Project developers/ construction companies (n=1) Insurers/pension funds/ foundations/banks (n=) Other investors (n=). Base: All respondents (n=175); values in % Question 1: Do you think that the willingness to invest in real estate will generally improve or worsen in (country) over the next 1 months? Scale: 1 = significantly improve, = significantly worsen '

25 Expectations UMH-CM Higher expectations with regard to investment in retail real estate in France. Assessment of the climate for real estate investment in the retail sector over the next 1 months Country Total (n=175) (1) significantly improve () () () (5) () significantly worsen don't know/no answer Ø Germany (n=) UK (n=) 8.7 France (n=1) Sector Real estate funds (n=7) Property investment companies (n=1) Project developers/ construction companies (n=1) 9 1. Insurers/pension funds/ foundations/banks (n=) Other investors (n=) 1 0. Base: All respondents (n=175); values in % Question 1: And what about the climate for real estate investment in the retail sector in (country) over the next 1 months? Scale: 1 = significantly improve, = significantly worsen

26 Expectations UMH-CM Half of real estate investors will not achieve their own real estate yield targets. Achievement of own real estate yield targets mean values Country Sector Total (n=175) Germany (n=) UK (n=) France (n=1) Real estate funds (n=7) Property investment companies (n=1) Project developers/ construction companies (n=1) Insurers/pension funds/ foundations/banks (n=) Other investors (n=) Real estate yields will not be achieved in the next years Real estate yields will not be achieved in the next 5 years Base: All respondents (n=175); mean values Question 17a1: Please consider the totality of real estate investors for a moment. How many real estate investors will NOT achieve their own real estate yield targets in the coming years, according to your estimate? Question 17a: And how many real estate investors will NOT achieve their own real estate yield targets in the coming 5 years, according to your estimate?

27 Overview. Detailed findings.1 General environment. Factors influencing investment decisions. Expectations. Risks and investment strategies

28 Risks and investment strategies Greater willingness to take on risk in investment strategies of German companies. Attitude to risk in investment strategy UMH-CM Same risk lower return Germany (n=) UK (n=) Same return higher risk 8 1 France (n=1) Base: All respondents (n=175); values in % Question 19: Which investment strategy is your company pursuing in an ongoing low interest rate environment with continuing strong demand for real estate?

29 XXX Around a third of respondents expect commercial transaction volumes in Europe to increase. 5 5 UMH-CM Development of commercial transaction volumes in Europe over the next 1 months Country Total (n=175) Commercial transaction volumes in Europe will...increase...remain more or less the same decrease don't know/no answer 18 Germany (n=) 8 1 UK (n=) France (n=1) Sector Real estate funds (n=7) 7 19 Property investment companies (n=1) 9 5 Project developers/ construction companies (n=1) 8 Insurers/pension funds/ foundations/banks (n=) Other investors (n=) 0 18 Base: All respondents (n=175); values in % Question 1: In your opinion, how will commercial transaction volumes in Europe develop over the coming 1 months?

30 Risks and investment strategies UMH-CM Vast majority will not scale back investment in Europe in favour of non-european markets. Investment in Europe versus outside Europe Country Total (n=175) Germany (n=) UK (n=) France (n=1) Don't know/ Yes Yes Don't know/ Yes Don't know/ no answer no answer Yes no answer Don't know/ no answer No 9 No 8 No 87 No Sector Real estate funds (n=7) Don't know/ no answer Yes Property investment companies (n=1) Don't know/ no answer Yes Project developers/ construction companies (n=1) Don't know/ no answer Insurers/pension funds/ foundations/banks (n=) Yes Other investors (n=) Don't know/ no answer Yes No 85 No No 9 No No Base: All respondents (n=175); values in % Question : Will you scale back investment in Europe in favour of markets outside Europe?

31 Risks and investment strategies UMH-CM Almost half the companies surveyed expect the current property market cycle to last for another 1- years. Duration of the current property market cycle Country Total (n=175) 1 year years years more than years don't know/no answer Germany (n=) UK (n=) France (n=1) Sector Real estate funds (n=7) Property investment companies (n=1) Project developers/ construction companies (n=1) 9 9 Insurers/pension funds/ foundations/banks (n=) Other investors (n=) 1 1 Base: All respondents (n=175); values in % Question : How long will the current property market cycle continue?

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