Development of the pig production in North West Germany considering the EU animal welfare directives becoming effective in 2013

Transcription

1 Development of the pig production in North West Germany considering the EU animal welfare directives becoming effective in 2013 CATI with pig farmers in North West Germany August/ September 2010

2 Target group Swine producers who... are responsible for the production and the purchase/ sales of swine on the farm,... either represent a farrow-to-finish operation, a fattening operation or a breeding operation,... are responsible for at least 100 breeding sows or 700 fattening places on their farm,... have at least 5 years experience in the job. Relevant areas within Germany: Schleswig-Holstein Niedersachsen Nordrhein-Westfalen The respondents were recruited directly from the P+M database according to the above mentioned screening criteria. 2

3 Research method 241 Computer Assisted Telephone Interviews (CATI) Interview duration: approx. 20 min Time period: August/September 2010 Closed as well as open questions The questionnaire was divided in three parts: Part 1 (screener) which was asked to all of the participants (questions 1-7) Part 2 (main interview): was asked to farmers managing a breeding operation or a farrow-to-finish system in which more than 5 of pigs for own finishing are produced (questions 8 41) Part 3 (main interview): was asked to farmers managing a fattening or a farrow-to-finish farm in which less than 5 of pigs for own finishing are produced (questions 42 55) 3

4 Pig production in Germany - Source: Stat. Bundesamt, German sow production German fattener production Schleswig-Holstein Schleswig-Holstein Hamburg 5 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Bremen Niedersachsen 2 Berlin Hamburg 64% Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Bremen Niedersachsen Brandenburg Sachsen-Anhalt Brandenburg Sachsen-Anhalt Nordrhein-Westfalen Nordrhein-Westfalen Sachsen Sachsen Hessen 1 Berlin Thüringen Rheinland-Pfalz Saarland 28% Bayern Baden-Württemberg Hessen Rheinland-Pfalz Saarland Thüringen 24% Bayern Baden-Württemberg 4

5 Sample design

6 Sample structure Sample structure Official statistics (Stat. Bundesamt 2007) Representativeness Percentage of interviews Total number of sows Total number of fatteners Percentage of swine producers (Germany) Percentage of swine producers (Within the relevant areas) Total number of sows 100 sows Total number of fatteners 1000 fattening places % of sows % of fatteners [in 1,000 heads] [in 1,000 heads] Niedersachsen 5 23, ,186 18% 49% , % 10.6% Nordrhein-Westfalen 4 13,443 93,804 16% 43% % 15.1% Schleswig-Holstein 6% ,620 3% 8% % 9.1% Pig with 100 sows represent 77% of the total sow production in Germany. Pig with 400 fatteners represent 7 of the total fattening production in Germany. 6

7 Mainly exclusive decision makers participated in the study - Producer statistics - Operation type: finishing breeding farrow-to-finish 4 Responsibility for operational decisions: the only person responsible comprehensively involved in decisions Gender: male 1 87% 93% female 7% n = 241; Difference to 10 = Don t know/ no answer Q 1, 4e: Is your farm a? Are you mainly responsible for decisions on the farm or comprehensively involved in operational decisions? 7

8 The majority of farmers is more than 40 years old and finished their education at a secondary agricultural school - Producer statistics - Age distribution: younger than 30 years 7% 31 to 40 years 41 to 50 years 51 to 59 years 2 35% 28% 60 years or more Agricultural education: secondary agricultural school 1 6 apprenticeship with recognized degree agricultural education (university) practical agricultural education without recognized degree 3% 16% 16% n = 241; Difference to 10 = Don t know/ no answer Q 56, 57: May I ask to which of the following age groups you belong to? What agricultural education do you have? 8

9 The sample is focused on the core regions of pig production and is structured into the target groups: breeding, farrow-to-finish, and fattening - Farm types of interviewed operations - 13 n = 241 interviews in total Schleswig-Holstein 126 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Hamburg Bremen Niedersachsen Berlin Brandenburg 102 Sachsen-Anhalt Nordrhein-Westfalen Farrow-tofinish 4 Finishing Hessen Thüringen Sachsen Rheinland-Pfalz Saarland Breeding Bayern Baden-Württemberg The majority of farmers managing a farrow-to-finish operation produced nearly all piglets necessary on its own and therefore answered the questions with regard to breeding management. n = 241 Q 1: Is your farm a? 9

10 Results

11 Development of livestock production

12 Every second pig farmer plans to extent production capacities within the next 5 years, mainly by new building - Assumed livestock development - Farrow-to-finish Breeding 4 Fattening The number of pigs kept... Total (n = 241) Breeding (n = 80) Farrow-to-finish (n = 60) Fattening (n = 101) will stay the same 5 54% 5 53% will increase by establishing new buildings/ extension of buildings 37% 34% 4 38% by purchase or leasing 1 8% 1 11% will change/ add production type start finishing operation 3% 8% start piglet production/ breeding 1% will decrease/ give up production will be reduced by selling or leasing < 1% 1% giving up pig keeping completely by selling or leasing 1% 3% 1% giving up pig keeping by complete closure 1% 3% 1% 12 Q 5: How do you plan to increase or decrease your kept/produced pigs in total within the next 5 years? The number of pigs kept...

13 Livestock development in the next 5 years / 3 - Increase of piglets and finishing pigs: transformation to total number of piglets and finishing pigs in North West Germany - Estimation Farrow-to-finish Breeding 4 Fattening Year 2015 (optimistic estimation) *** Year 2015 (realistic estimation) ** Piglets per sow per year 27,3 26,3 27,3 (empirical value) 28,3 Growth rate Number of animals Growth rate Number of animals Growth rate Number of animals Growth rate Number of animals Piglets m 14.9% 29.8 m 19.3% 30.9 m 23.6% 32.1 m Fattening pigs 36.5% 38.3 m 28.9% 36.2 m 28.9% 36.2 m 28.9% 36.2 m Difference between piglets- and fattening pigs values % m m - 9.6% m - 5.3% m * Source: German Federal Office of Statistics/ The number of piglets results from multiplication of # sows (official data) with 24,8 piglets per sow per year (empirical value in question 12). The number of fattening pigs is a product of the number of fattening pig places (official data) and 2,6 as the average number of production turns (Question 4b/4a). Growth rates are calculated on a disaggregated (most accurate) level. ** Underlying assumptions: Projected values are based on current data and the empirically measured growth rate (question 7) which considers the probability of realizing investment plans. The number of piglets results from multiplication of # sows with 26,3 / 27,3 / 28,3 piglets per sow per year. *** Underlying assumptions: Values are projected based on current data and the empirically measured growth rate which does not consider the probability of realizing investment plans. The number of piglets results from multiplication of # sows with 27,3 piglets per sow per year (empirical value in question 13). S3, S4a, S4b, Q5, Q6a, Q6b, Q7 13

14 German pig farmers will most likely realize their investment plans - Probability of realizing plans - Farrow-to-finish Breeding 4 Fattening Total (n = 241) Breeding (n = 80) Farrow-to-finish (n = 60) Fattening (n = 101) to 29% < 1% 1% 3 to 59% 11% 8% 13% 1 6 to 99% 51% 51% 47% 53% 10 36% 4 37% 3 Av. probability 84% 85% 84% 83% Difference to 10 = no answer Q 7: Please tell me how likely it is that you will realize these plans? Please use a scale from very unlikely to 10 = very likely. 14

15 Status quo of group housing in sow management

16 Farrow-to-finish Farrow-to-finish are slightly worse performing than specialized breeding - Key reproduction figures - Breeding 4 Total Breeding Farrow-to-finish Unit (n = 136) (n = 80) (n = 56*) Suckling period days Production cycle weeks Labour time expenditure per sow and year hours/ year Full time employees incl. owner #/ year Weaned piglets per sow and year in 2009 Weaned piglets per sow and year expected in 2015 #/ sow/ year #/ sow/ year Replacement rate % 38.5% % * Farrow-to-finish that buy more than 5 of their piglets from other answered questions for finishing operations (n = 4). Q 9, 10, 11a, 11b, 12, 13, 14: What is the length of the suckling period you work with? Please make your statement in days. Which production cycle do you use? Please make your statement in weeks. What is the labour time expenditure in hours per sow and year on your operation? How many full time employees incl. owner currently work on your operation? How many piglets per sow and year have you weaned in the last business year? How many weaned piglets per sow and year do you think you could achieve in the next 5 years, i.e. in the year 2015? What is the yearly replacement rate in your operation? 16

17 The requirement sow housing with free-run opportunity is widely known - Familiarity with EU welfare regulation - Farrow-to-finish Breeding 4 Total (n = 136) Breeding (n = 80) Farrow-to-finish (n = 56*) Yes, I know the regulation 96% 98% 93% (n = 130) (n = 78) (n = 52) Sows have to be kept in groups with free-run opportunity Group housing is required from a certain time after fertilization 18% 91% 19% 9 15% 89% Minimum space for sows 15% 14% 17% Floor requirements (slatted floor dimensions) 7% 6% 8% Farrowing crates will be forbidden 5% 3% 1 Others (< 5%) 15% 15% 13% Don t know/ no answer 3% 4% * Farrow-to-finish that buy more than 5 of their piglets from other answered questions for finishing operations (n = 4). Q 15a, 15b: Have you heard of the requirements of the EU welfare legislation on pregnant sows becoming effective in the year 2013? What do you know about it? Multiple answer 17

18 Farrow-to-finish Further (less frequently) mentioned details of the EU welfare legislation - Familiarity with EU welfare regulation - Breeding 4 New pen dimensions required General constructural requirements Feeding of roughage is required Requirements on free access to water Special lighting requirements Climate requirements Medication requirements Q 15a, 15b: Have you heard of the requirements of the EU welfare legislation on pregnant sows becoming effective in the year 2013? What do you know about it? Multiple answer 18

19 Farrow-to-finish Half of sow operations in North West Germany already completely implemented group housing for pregnant sows, a further third of partly! - Share of by % of sows kept in group housing in 2010 vs Breeding 4 extent to which group housing is realized: Sow keeping in total (n = 136) Breeding (n = 80) Farrow-to-finish (n = 56*) Not yet implemented () 3% 16% 11% 1% 5% 23% 1% to < 2 3% 4% 2 to < 5 7% 9% 1% 5% 5 to < 8 17% 18% 2 19% 13% 18% 8 to < 10 5% 9% 4% 9% 7% 9% 10 49% % of with group housing** 8 86% 75% Av. % to which realized group housing (2010/2013) 68%/ 87% 7/ 89% 64%/ 85% 65% 5 66% 48% 64% * Farrow-to-finish that buy more than 5 of their piglets from other answered questions for finishing operations (n = 4). ** Under consideration of n.a. ( in total, 3% in breeding, in farrow-to-finish ) Differences to 10 = no answer Q 16, 41: What percentage of your barren sows do you already keep according to the EU welfare legislation? According to current plans, what percentage of your barren sows will you keep in group housing in 2013 in compliance with the legal requirements of the EU? 19

20 Farrow-to-finish 7 of sows in total are already kept according to future EU requirements! - Share of sows by % of pregnant sows kept in group housing in 2010 vs Breeding 4 extent to which group housing is realized: % of all sows on sow keeping (n = 136) % of sows on breeding (n = 80) % of sows on farrow-to-finish (n = 56*) 1% to < 2 2 to < 5 1% 5 to < 8 16% 11% 21% 1 6% 9% 8 to < 10 3% 13% 16% 4% 6% 10 49% 61% 47% 59% 5 64% % of sows kept in groups (2010/2013) 7/ 85% 73%/ 88% 64%/ 8 Total number of sows 37,918 24,578 13, * Farrow-to-finish that buy more than 5 of their piglets from other answered questions for finishing operations (n = 4). No answer: 2, Q 16, 41: What percentage of your barren sows do you already keep according to the EU welfare legislation? According to current plans, what percentage of your barren sows will you keep in group housing in 2013 in compliance with the legal requirements of the EU? 20

21 Farrow-to-finish The majority of sows in group housing is kept in larger sow operations - Share of sows in group housing by size classes in 2010 vs Breeding 4 Sow herd size classes: % of all sows on all % of all sows on breeding % of all sows on farrow-tofinish Up to 150 4% 6% 3% 3% 150 to % 1 13% 1 13% 250 to % 19% 14% 17% 1% > % 34% 21% 24% 9% 1 % of sows kept in groups (2010/2013) 7/ 85% 47%/ 57% 23%/ 28% Base of sows in the sample: 37,918 Q 16, 41: What percentage of your barren sows do you already keep according to the EU welfare legislation? According to current plans, what percentage of your barren sows will you keep in group housing in 2013 in compliance with the legal requirements of the EU? 21

22 Farrow-to-finish Farmers are generally convinced that the EU Regulation will stay as it is and that the transitional period will not be extended - EU-laws regarding group housing - Breeding 4 Farmers who think transitional period will be extended: 13% 77% 11% Yes, I think transitional period will be extended. No, I don t think transitional period will be extended. Don t know Farmers who think there will be further changes of EU-laws: 7% 84% 1 Yes, I think EU-law will be changed beyond transitional period. No, I don t think EU law will be changed beyond transitional period. Don t know n = 136; reduced sample (only with group housing); Difference to10 = rounding errors Q 39, 40: Do you think that the transitional period in regard to group housing will be extended? Do you think that EU-law with regard to group housing of sows will be changed beyond the transitional period? 22