Global Investment Decision Makers Survey. Ipsos MORI November 2017

Transcription

1 Global Investment Decision Makers Survey Ipsos MORI November 2017

2 Contents 03 Methodology 11 Regional Comparisons 07 Executive summary 15 The attractiveness of Europe 22 Impact of Brexit 30 Ipsos MORI Credentials 25 Policy priorities 2

3 Methodology 3

4 Methodology Background: Ipsos MORI was commissioned by Invest Europe to conduct a study to measure the attitudes of international investment decision makers towards Europe as an investment destination. Objectives: Look at the attractiveness of Europe relative to other international investment destinations. Understand the relative strengths and weaknesses of Europe as an investment destination. Explore how Europe has changed as an investment destination over time, including looking at the impact of Brexit. Methodology: The research was carried out using an online survey. Respondents were accessed through panels of business professionals. Panel members undergo pre-recruitment screening and the panels undergo regular quality control procedures. All respondents were screened to ensure that they are involved in investment decision making in their current role. Additional screening in each market was carried out as follows to ensure that respondents were relevant for the study: In France, Germany, the UK and the USA respondents had to meet the following criteria: Involved in a decision to invest in a European company in the last 12 months Likely to be involved in a decision to invest in a European company in the next 12 months Have previously been involved in a decision to invest in a company outside of Europe In China respondents had to meet the following criteria: Involved in a decision to invest internationally in the last 12 months Have previously considered investing in a European company The following number of completes were achieved in each market: France (60), Germany (74), UK (54), USA (91), China (81) In the findings shown in this report, each market has been weighted to a base of 75 to ensure that each market has equal influence on the global score. When percentages do not add up to 100%, this can be due to computer rounding, multiple answers or to the exclusion of other or don t know categories. Fieldwork was completed: Sept-Oct

5 Sample (I) Country Job Role (%) 91 C-class (i.e. Chief Executive Officer) Each market has been weighted to a base of 75 in the reported findings Founder Senior manager or equivalent Director or equivalent Managing Director or equivalent Senior Vice president or Executive Vice President Vice President or equivalent 6 5 Investor Type (%) Corporate investor Institutional investor Angel investor Sovereign investor Other 5

6 Sample (II) Area of investment (%) Private Equity/Venture Capital Real Estate Infrastructure Hedge Funds Public Equity Industry sector (%) Finance & insurance Real estate & construction Business products & services Information and communications technology (ICT) Consumer goods & services Biotech & healthcare Chemicals & materials Energy & environment Transportation Agriculture Other 6

7 Executive Summary 7

8 Executive summary (I) In comparison with the USA and China, Europe is seen as a clear leader on sustainability and the environment. Around half also say Europe is the strongest performer among the three investment destinations on social stability, political stability, rule of law, transport infrastructure, availability of a highly skilled workforce, availability of investment incentives and regulatory climate. o However, only on commitment to sustainability is European leadership acknowledged across all markets. Non-Europeans view their own regions as leaders in most areas. Likewise, Europe s scores are driven by positivity from British, German and French respondents. Europe is seen as an above average investment destination on the majority of areas tested. Sustainability and the environment, and having a highly skilled workforce are particular strengths. Within EU markets, French respondents are the most critical of Europe as an investment destination, while those from Germany are the most praising. Respondents from China vary most notably in their opinions, being more likely to rate Europe above average on six areas (most notably, taxation and labour flexibility), but also more likely to rate Europe below average on two areas (political stability and rule of law). Around half see Europe as the global leader in the energy and the environment, and biotech and healthcare sectors. Again, national differences are present. Respondents from Germany are more likely to see Europe leading in chemicals, those from Britain in finance and insurance (in contrast to French and German respondents) and those from France and the USA in transportation. o Those who say Europe has become more attractive over the past five years, as well as those who say that European policymakers are committed to attracting investment, are more likely than average to say Europe leads in energy and the environment, healthcare and biotech, finance and insurance, and business products and consumer goods. Over half say that Europe has become more attractive as an investment destination over the past five years, with sentiment particularly positive in China and the USA. French and British respondents are less likely to say Europe has become more attractive, though only in the UK do significant numbers say this. Eurozone stability and economic growth are the main drivers of positivity for those who say Europe has become more attractive as an investment destination over the past five years. Again, views vary across markets, with German respondents more likely to say that Europe has become more attractive due Eurozone stability, labour market flexibility and the decreased attractiveness of the USA. American respondents are more likely to focus on currency movements, while those from China are more likely to highlight innovation, the start up ecosystem and increased return on investment. Among the small proportion who felt that Europe has become less attractive over the last five years, Eurozone instability is the top reason driving this. Low economic growth, increased regulatory burden, terrorism/security and Brexit are also important factors shaping this sentiment. Please note that due to the comparatively small number of people answering this question the findings are less robust than other questions and should be treated appropriately. 8

9 Executive summary (II) On the subject of the Brexit, respondents are split on the impact that it will have on their propensity to invest in the UK. The majority of German and French respondents are less likely to invest, while the majority of those from the USA are unchanged. Notably, Chinese respondents are more likely to say it will increase their likelihood to invest which is indicative of their overall positivity towards investment in the region and may reflect the potential for new trade relations between the UK and other international markets. Regarding the impact of Brexit on investment in the EU, the majority do not feel that this decision will influence their propensity to invest in the region. Understandably, respondents from the UK are most likely to say that the decision will make them less likely to invest in Europe; however, even then, it is less than a third that feel as such. Lower taxes are the most frequently cited means of boosting the attractiveness of Europe as an investment destination, mentioned by a third of respondents. Bearing in mind regulatory barriers to entry, Chinese and American respondents are more likely to look for investment incentives. Unsurprisingly, UK respondents are more likely to be looking for a swift resolution to Brexit talks an issue which those from China are notably less concerned about. Among those who say Europe has become less attractive over the past 5 years, 47% say Europe can make itself more attractive with tax cuts. For those who say investment is likely to increase over the next five years the availability of investment incentives and closer integration of the single market have greater prominence. Respondents are optimistic that investment in Europe will increase over the next five years, with respondents from China and the USA especially bullish. German respondents are notably less confident. Closely linked to this, the majority of respondents believe that European policymakers are committed to attracting investment. Again, this sentiment is particularly strong in China and the USA, with British and German respondents being less confident. Notably, almost four in five (77%) respondents who believe that policymakers are committed to attracting investment, think that investment in Europe will increase over the next five years. Respondents strongly agree that Europe s commitment to sustainability and the environment is important to them. Given that Europe is seen to be leading on environmental issues, these values may help explain why those who consider the environment to be important are more likely to say Europe has increased in attractiveness over the last five years. Across the study it is notable that among respondents from European markets, it is those from Germany who are consistently the most positive about Europe at the current time. German respondents are more likely than those from France and the UK to rate Europe above average on a number of areas and to feel that Europe has improved as an investment destination over the last five years. Improved Eurozone stability is a key factor driving this positivity. Nevertheless, German respondents are less bullish about future investment in Europe, with a greater proportion likely to think that investment in the region will decrease over the next five years than increase in all other markets respondents are more likely to think that investment will increase. 9

10 Key takeaways 1. Europe is seen as an attractive investment destination, having made positive progress in the last five years. Notably, 60% of respondents believe that investment will increase in Europe over the next five years. This is supported by the belief that European policy makers are committed to attracting investment. 2. Commitment to the environment and sustainability is a key strength for the region. 3. Investors credit improved capital markets as a factor in Europe s increased attractiveness over the past five years. However, the US is still seen as stronger in this area. 4. The impact of Brexit on future EU investment is relatively self-contained, with only respondents from the UK being less likely to invest in the EU as a result. There is greater negativity around the impact of Brexit on future investment in the UK, particularly among French and German respondents. Nevertheless, it is notable that respondents from China are more likely to invest in both the UK and EU over the next five years as a result of Brexit. 5. Though respondents from the USA and China are positive about their home markets, they are also bullish about Europe s improved attractiveness as an investment destination over the past five years and the vast majority (90% China, 74% USA) expect investment in Europe to increase over the next five years. 6. Continued Eurozone stability and a competitive tax environment will be key to future growth. 10

11 Regional comparisons 11

12 Europe has structural advantages, but US fosters innovation Q5. From the options provided, please select the country/region which you think is the strongest performer in each of the following areas. Strongest performer for each area: USA China Access to global markets Taxation levels Efficient capital markets Innovation and entrepreneurship IT infrastructure Base: All respondents (360) Europe Availability of highly skilled workforce Availability of government incentives Political stability Social stability Rule of law and corruption prevention Commitment to sustainability Transport infrastructure Regulatory climate Availability of low skilled workforce Level of economic growth Labour flexibility 12

13 European leadership most clear cut on the environment Q5. From the options provided, please select the country/region which you think is the strongest performer in each of the following areas. % China % USA % Europe Availability of high skilled workforce 68 Availability of low skilled workforce Availability of government incentives Access to global markets Political stability Social stability Rule of law and corruption prevention Taxation levels Level of economic growth Base: All respondents (360) Labour flexibility Efficient capital markets Innovation and entrepreneurship Commitment to sustainability and the environment Transport infrastructure IT infrastructure Regulatory climate 13

14 High scores for EU driven by Europeans, primarily Germans Q5. From the options provided, please select the country/region which you think is the strongest performer in each of the following areas. Strongest performer for each area: Availability of high skilled workforce Availability of low skilled workforce Availability of government incentives Access to global markets Political stability Social stability Rule of law and corruption prevention Taxation levels Level of economic growth Labour flexibility Efficient capital markets Innovation and entrepreneurship Commitment to sustainability Transport infrastructure IT infrastructure Regulatory climate 54% (EU) 62% (EU) 69% (EU) 51% (USA) 42% (USA) 65% (China) 70% (China) 68% (China) 66% (China) 73% (China) 67% (EU) 55% (EU) 59% (EU) 48% (USA) 42% (China) 50% (USA) 50% (USA) 59% (EU) 53% (USA) 42% (USA) 54% (EU) 62% (EU) 78% (EU) 44% (USA) 72% (China) 61% (EU) 58% (EU) 84% (EU) 55% (USA) 78% (China) 50% (EU) 68% (EU) 80% (EU) 47% (EU) 48% (China) 41% (EU/USA) 47% (USA) 36% (EU) 35% (EU) 48% (EU) 52% (China) 53% (China) 50% (China) 40% (China) 64% (China) 44% (EU) 53% (USA) 36% (China) 37% (USA) 51% (China) 48% (USA) 55% (USA) 53% (EU) 54% (USA) 51% (USA) 50% (USA) 53% (USA) 46% (USA) 63% (USA) 37% (USA/China) 91% (EU) 83% (EU) 85% (EU) 65% (EU) 44% (EU) 48% (EU) 60% (EU) 78% (EU) 48% (USA) 51% (China) 50% (USA) 57% (USA) 51% (USA) 62% (USA) 64% (USA) 56% (EU) 48% (EU) 62% (EU) 53% (USA) 38% (USA) *The text in brackets beside each value shows the investment destination which is seen to lead on each area High score for each area Base: All respondents (360): UK (54), France (60), Germany (74), USA (91), China (81) 14

15 Attractiveness of Europe 15

16 Europe rated well against other investment destinations Q6. In comparison with other international investment destinations, how would you rate Europe on each of the following areas? % Above Average % Below Average Commitment to sustainability and the environment Availability of high skilled workforce Transport infrastructure Social stability Access to global markets Efficient capital markets Political stability Rule of law and corruption prevention Regulatory climate IT infrastructure Availability of government incentives Innovation and entrepreneurship Taxation levels Level of economic growth Labour flexibility Availability of low skilled workforce Base: All respondents (360) 16

17 US and China as likely as Europeans to rate Europe well Q6. In comparison with other international investment destinations, how would you rate Europe on each of the following areas? (Columns showing ratings for above and below average) % Above % Below % Above % Below % Above % Below % Above % Below % Above % Below Commitment to sustainability 81% 4% 78% 8% 77% 5% 76% 4% 73% 5% Availability of high skilled workforce 72% 6% 63% 12% 69% 11% 78% 4% 75% 4% Transport infrastructure 61% 7% 68% 8% 74% 9% 73% 5% 67% 6% Social stability 63% 9% 60% 12% 82% 7% 75% 7% 59% 11% Access to global markets 59% 7% 43% 20% 80% 1% 81% 3% 75% 5% Efficient capital markets 69% 9% 48% 18% 66% 12% 75% 3% 75% 2% Political stability 56% 15% 67% 12% 86% 4% 69% 8% 52% 12% Rule of law and corruption prevention 67% 7% 65% 17% 77% 9% 67% 9% 51% 12% Regulatory climate 61% 9% 58% 10% 58% 15% 65% 8% 65% 9% IT infrastructure 67% 9% 52% 13% 53% 20% 69% 5% 72% 5% Availability of government incentives 61% 7% 37% 17% 62% 18% 60% 10% 68% 5% Innovation and entrepreneurship 56% 9% 48% 15% 53% 14% 59% 8% 69% 10% Taxation levels 43% 20% 42% 30% 46% 19% 52% 16% 62% 4% Level of economic growth 44% 13% 15% 38% 58% 14% 54% 11% 57% 9% Labour flexibility 46% 26% 15% 52% 43% 35% 56% 15% 56% 14% Availability of low skilled workforce 43% 19% 20% 48% 31% 23% 30% 27% 42% 30% Base: All respondents (360): UK (54), France (60), Germany (74), USA (91), China (81) Indicates a significant difference at 95% confidence when compared to total 17

18 Half of investors see Europe as leader in energy, biotech Q7. In which, if any, of the following sectors do you consider Europe to be a global leader. Please choose all that apply. Significant differences at market level Energy & environment 55 Biotech & healthcare 49 (65%) (40%) Finance & insurance 44 (59%) (61%) (25%) (30%) Business products & services 42 (54%) (30%) Consumer goods & services 37 (25%) Transportation 33 (47%) (42%) (10%) Chemicals & materials 32 (43%) Information and communications technology (ICT) 27 (36%) (15%) Real estate & construction 23 (16%) Agriculture 23 (12%) None of the above 4 Base: All respondents (360): UK (54), France (60), Germany (74), USA (91), China (81) Indicates a significant difference at 95% confidence when compared to total 18

19 Most investors say Europe more attractive, but UK differs Q8. Over the past five years, has Europe become more or less attractive to you as an investment destination? % Much more attractive % Slightly more attractive % No difference % Slightly less attractive % Much less attractive Global % More attractive % No difference % Less attractive Base: All respondents (360): UK (54), France (60), Germany (74), USA (91), China (81) Indicates a significant difference at 95% confidence when compared to total 19

20 Improved economic outlook drives bullish views on Europe Q9. Which of the following have made Europe more attractive to you as an investment destination over the last five years? Choose all that apply Significant differences at market level Eurozone stability 54 (67%) (40%) Improved economic growth Commitment to sustainability and environment Increased innovation Closer integration of EU capital markets Decreased attractiveness of USA Improved start-up ecosystem Increase in return on investment Increase in high skilled labour (56%) (56%) (16%) (49%) (23%) (49%) (21%) Closer integration of EU single market in goods, products Improved labour market flexibility Rule of law and corruption prevention Currency movements Decreased attractiveness of China (42%) (16%) (42%) (13%) (5%) None of the above 0 Base: All respondents (221): UK (16), France (29), Germany (48), USA (65), China (63) Indicates a significant difference at 95% confidence when compared to total 20

21 Concerns over economic outlook drive loss of attractiveness Q10. Which of the following have made Europe less attractive to you as an investment destination over the last five years? Choose all that apply Eurozone instability 55 Low economic growth Increased regulatory burden The UK s decision to leave the EU (Brexit) Terrorism/security Inflexible labour markets Uncompetitive exchange rates Low return on investment Political instability Lack of integration of EU capital markets Lack of integration of EU single market in goods, products and services Anti-trust actions by the European Commission 22 Limited innovation and entrepreneurship Commitment to sustainability and the environment None of the above No significant differences at market level on this question due to small base this is caused by low number of people saying Europe has becomes less attractive as an investment destination at Q8. Base: All respondents (58): UK (16), France (13), Germany (14), USA (9), China (6) Indicates a significant difference at 95% confidence when compared to total 21

22 Impact of Brexit 22

23 Investors split three ways on investing in post-brexit UK Q11. To what extent will the UK s decision to leave the European Union make you more or less likely to invest in the UK in the next five years? % Much more likely % Slightly more likely % No change % Slightly less likely % Much less likely Global % More likely % No change % Less likely Base: All respondents (360): UK (54), France (60), Germany (74), USA (91), China (81) Indicates a significant difference at 95% confidence when compared to total 23

24 Majority unchanged by Brexit on future EU investment Q12. To what extent will the UK s decision to leave the European Union make you more or less likely to invest in the EU in the next five years? % Much more likely % Slightly more likely % No change % Slightly less likely % Much less likely Global % More likely % No change % Less likely Base: All respondents (360): UK (54), France (60), Germany (74), USA (91), China (81) Indicates a significant difference at 95% confidence when compared to total 24

25 Policy Priorities 25

26 Lower taxation the most popular way to boost attractiveness Q13. Which of the following areas do you think policymakers should address to increase the attractiveness of Europe as an investment destination? (showing % issues selected as priority 1,2, or 3) Significant differences at market level Lower taxes 33 (20%) The availability of investment incentives 26 (37%), (37%) (15%) More flexible labour markets Closer integration of EU single market in goods, products (14%) (43%) Swift resolution of Brexit negotiations Regulation impacting business Increased investment in innovation Increased investment in infrastructure Actions to enhance sustainability and protect the Increased investment in education & skills (37%) (9%) (10%) Lower interest rates Closer integration of EU capital markets Competition Policy Stronger integration of the Eurozone Higher interest rates 10 Base: All respondents (360): UK (54), France (60), Germany (74), USA (91), China (81) Indicates a significant difference at 95% confidence when compared to total 26

27 Interest in investment incentives driven by US, China Q13. Which of the following areas do you think policymakers should address to increase the attractiveness of Europe as an investment destination? (showing % issues selected as priority 1,2, or 3) Lower taxes 28% 43% 20% 38% 37% The availability of investment incentives 17% 15% 26% 37% 37% More flexible labour markets 22% 32% 23% 21% 14% Closer integration of EU single market in goods, products and services 17% 15% 16% 15% 43% Swift resolution of Brexit negotiations 37% 13% 18% 18% 9% Regulation impacting business 24% 25% 18% 20% 10% Increased investment in innovation 17% 17% 19% 21% 20% Increased investment in infrastructure 19% 10% 22% 20% 19% Actions to enhance sustainability and protect the environment 9% 18% 18% 21% 20% Increased investment in education & skills 19% 17% 20% 18% 11% Lower interest rates 13% 15% 12% 15% 17% Closer integration of EU capital markets 13% 18% 14% 11% 21% Competition Policy 11% 13% 11% 14% 19% Stronger integration of the Eurozone 9% 18% 18% 11% 15% Higher interest rates 11% 13% 12% 9% 6% Base: All respondents (360): UK (54), France (60), Germany (74), USA (91), China (81) Indicates a significant difference at 95% confidence when compared to total 27

28 Investors are optimistic on future investment environment Q14. To what extent do you agree or disagree with the following statements about Europe as an investment destination? % Strongly agree % Slightly agree % Neither nor % Slightly disagree % Strongly disagree Investors will increase their investment in Europe over the next five years European policymakers are committed to attracting overseas investment Europe s commitment to sustainability and the environment is important to me as an investor Base: All respondents (360) 28

29 US, China most bullish on European investment prospects To what extent do you agree or disagree with the following statements about Europe as an investment destination? Investors will increase their investment in Europe over the next five years European policymakers are committed to attracting overseas investment Europe s commitment to sustainability and the environment is important to me as an investor Base: All respondents (360): UK (54), France (60), Germany (74), USA (91), China (81) Indicates a significant difference at 95% confidence when compared to total 29

30 Credentials 30

31 Ipsos MORI s standards and accreditations Ipsos MORI s standards and accreditations provide our clients with the peace of mind that they can always depend on us to deliver reliable, sustainable findings. Our focus on quality and continuous improvement means we have embedded a right first time approach throughout our organisation. ISO 20252:2012 The international market research specific standard that supersedes BS 7911 / MRQSA & incorporates IQCS (Interviewer Quality Control Scheme); it covers the 5 stages of a Market Research project. Ipsos MORI was the first company in the world to gain this accreditation. ISO 27001:2005 International standard for information security designed to ensure the selection of adequate and proportionate security controls. Ipsos MORI was the first research company in the UK to be awarded this in August MRS Company Partnership By being an MRS Company Partner, Ipsos MORI endorse and support the core MRS brand values of professionalism, research excellence and business effectiveness, and commit to comply with the MRS Code of Conduct throughout the organisation. Data Protection Act Ipsos MORI is required to comply with the Data Protection Act; it covers the processing of personal data and the protection of privacy ISO 9001:2008 International general company standard with a focus on continual improvement through quality management systems. In 1994 we became one of the early adopters of the ISO 9001 business standard. This work was carried out in accordance with the requirements of the international quality standard for market research, ISO 20252:2012 and with the Ipsos MORI Terms and Conditions. 31

32 Thank you FURTHER INFORMATION For more information please contact: About Ipsos MORI Reputation Centre Dr Mike Granleese e: t: +44 (0) m: +44 (0) Ipsos MORI 3 Thomas More Square London E1W 1YW Alex Lewis e: alex.lewis@ipsos.com t: +44 (0) The Ipsos MORI Reputation Centre was established with a simple aim: to help companies build more resilient reputations through stronger relationships with the people who matter most to them. Our approach is based on the understanding that research needs to be a catalyst for positive change providing clear and practical advice that feeds directly into the stakeholder communications process. 32