EQUITY MARKET MARKET OUTLOOK JANUARY The Year that was The Reality check

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1 MARKET OUTLOOK EQUITY MARKET JANUARY 216 The Year that was 215- The Reality check The year 215 was a lacklustre year for the Indian Equity markets. As the impending hope of favourable government policies being able to stimulate demand dwindled and the reality of poor corporate sector earnings growth dawned on the markets we ended the year ~ 4% down. The key drivers of private capex, consumption spending, government spending and external sector demand remained constrained leading to a long and winding adjustment process. Globally two major external events guided the risk appetite of the markets i.e. US interest rate hike and weakness in the Chinese markets creating a possibility for Yuan devaluation leading to extreme volatility across asset classes this year. While we started the year on strong FII flows, they tuned negative in the second half of the year in line with domestic and global developments. The Commodity debacle was by far the highlight of the year creating balance sheet and economic imbalances for dependant corporates and countries alike but creating tailwind for net commodity consumers. Performance of Sectoral Indices Total return YTD 215 S&P BSE India Metal S&P BSE India Realty Nifty Bank Nifty Infrastructure S&P BSE CapGoods S&P BSE SENSEX Nifty 5 S&P BSE India Oil&Gas S&P BSE 2 S&P BSE India Auto S&P BSE 5 Nifty IT S&P BSE FMCG S&P BSE SmallCap Nifty Midcap 1 S&P BSE Cons. Dis. Goods & Svc S&P BSE Healthcare (3.) (2.) (1.) Commodity price deflation High real interest rates Balance sheet stress No capex cycle Company specific growth opportunities from new product launches Discretionary spends Bottom up stock selection approach 31-Dec-15 3-Sep-15 NIFTY % Change.% -5.% -1.4% 2.5% FII flows cummulative YTD (USD bn) FII for the Quarter (USD bn) Divergence of best & worst index 16.7% 35.8% 21.% 29.5% Best performing Sector Oil and gas IT Worst performing Sector IT Metal 3-Jun-15 Oil and gas Realty 31-Mar-15 Healthcare Metal Source- Bloomberg, Oil and gas outperformance is a result of OMCs and Not E&P companies. Dwindling FII Flows The only consistent theme was commodity prices positively or negatively impacting companies

2 The Global Reality- It's a relative world MSCI World outperformed MSCI Emerging Markets and MSCI India Emerging market economies are reeling under economic pressure on account of low commodity prices. Slowdown in China, the biggest consumer and trading partner of emerging market economies, has impacted the growth and return profile of these economies. The return ratios for Emerging markets have seen a significant deterioration since the hay days of The balance sheet excesses created during the precrisis have left the economies saddled with debt and unviable surplus capacities. Developed markets offered a better growth profile with better capital efficiency and the same is reflected in the outperformance of the developed market pack versus the emerging market pack. We have seen developed market balance sheets consolidating over the last 7 years with D/E ratio steadily coming down whereas emerging market Balance sheets have imploded with historic highs on D/E ratios. Though the Return profile for India has deteriorated but we are much better placed in the world economic order. The one positive re-enforcement is that the pace of deterioration for India has moderated and as India's strong macro strength finds its way into increased domestic spending things should be very different. Our bottom up research and company specific interaction too reveal that we are in a phase of transition Dec'7 Dec'8 Dec'9 Dec'1 Dec'11 Dec'12 Dec'13 Dec'14 Dec'15 Dec'7 Dec'8 Dec'9 Dec'1 Dec'11 Dec'12 Dec'13 Dec'14 Dec'15 Emerging Market ROE World ROE US ROE India ROE Emerging Market D/E World D/E US D/E India D/E Developed market strength driven by US led to better performance of MSCI world India performed better relative to other Emerging markets. Source- Bloomberg, Aggregate ratios based on constituents of the respective MSCI Indices. Source- Bloomberg, MXIN MSCI India; MXWO- MSCI World, MXEF MSCI Emerging Markets

3 Dollar continued to strengthen thereby created stress in commodity and asset prices Commodity price deflation created currency stress for the emerging market Source- Bloomberg, BBDXY Dollar Index, FXJPEMCS Emerging Markets Currency index, CRY Commodity Index Indian Markets Reality - Missing demand drivers but commodity cycle created cost tailwinds for corporate and government alike Markets failed to find an anchor around any key demand variable and it was a bottom up approach which worked best. Subdued demand and low commodity prices created revenue pressures (poor volume growth and lack of pricing power). Favourable raw material cycle however improved gross margin and created some space for market making (advertising, promotion, and discounts). Capacity utilisation continues to be low and leverage is high leading to a suboptimal return profile for the corporate sector in India. We believe demand recovery will be gradual and selective. In the short to medium term a favourable raw material cycle and cost rationalisation will drive profit growth, followed by improving capacity utilisation and operating leverage. An investment cycle driven recovery is still far away pending a cautious fiscal and monetary policy stance, large output gap and levered balance sheets. Focus will be on aligning portfolios to capital efficient companies executing and innovating well to meet the needs of the discerning Indian customer. As the country prepares for GST, the shift from unorganised to organised will enhance the profit pools for the product and services companies as well as enablers like logistic companies thereby creating an earnings impetus. For the Government, the weak commodity cycle created the much needed fiscal space in an environment when non tax revenues were facing a shortfall. The Government channelized the spending towards planned expenditure trying to enhance the growth multiplier. The spending is incremental, targeted at certain segment but not enough to catapult us into a cycle of growth and job creation. The government has various spending plans around railways, water and waterways, renewable energy, roads and highways, emission norms, smart cities, Swach India, dedicated freight corridor where significant political, regulatory and capital commitments are required which in our view will take considerable time and effort. It would be good to anchor portfolios around companies well placed to benefit from these spending trends.

4 Valuations Reality It's now E's turn to outperform in the P/E ratio Lack of earnings pick up leaves market expensive P/E Ratio CY 214- Rerating of Indian Markets on favourable election outcome and ensuing hope Cy15- Tepid earnings and slow reform process rendered the markets expensive 12 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Corporate sector Growth and Positioning For the corporate sector in India thus, underlying growth drivers remained weak this year and we need to recalibrate growth expectations accordingly. However the commodity cycle and excess global capacities have created margin levers providing a cushion to the corporate earnings. Drivers of a broad-based recovery are still not imminent but there are enough bottoms up ideas to capture intermittent pockets of demand across market segments. Consumption The sector faced volume and pricing headwinds in a deflationary and low demand environment. Correction in the raw material/ input basket for companies created headroom for market making (advertising, promotion, and discounts, improving reach) thereby preventing the smaller and unorganised player gain market share. This helped in protecting the industry profit pool to a certain extent. Rural incomes will continue to face headwinds due to a multitude of factors like rationalization of subsidy, lower increase of MSPs and erratic th weather patterns. Urban income should fare better in general as also with the impending recommendation of 7 pay commission getting implemented. We would like to remain favourably biased towards urban discretionary consumption categories Banking and Financial Services - During the year RBI awarded new licenses to payment banks (11 licenses) and small finance banks (1 licenses) which could consequently increase competitive pressures for the sector going forward. Regulatory pressures further intensified with RBI requiring banks to transition to marginal cost of funds in order to calculate base rates which could impact margins in the future. Moreover, RBI urged all banks to proactively clean-up balance sheets and even released a list of 15 stressed accounts for banks to recognize and provide. There was some respite for PSU Banks with the government launching 'Indradhanush' aimed towards revitalizing the sector in addition to announcing a bank recapitalisation of `7, crore over four years. Fragmentation, cost pressures, capitalisation pressures, regulatory pressure continue to create headwinds for the banking sector in general and PSU banking space in particular reinforcing our underweight stance on this space. Exporters IT - Growth in the US economy did not translate into higher growth for Indian exporters, especially Indian IT services companies. The current changes seen in technology are quite disruptive. The companies now want to spend more on newer technologies like Digital, Cloud and big data analytics rather than traditional application development space. The projects in these areas are typical smaller in size and need quicker turnaround, contrary to the current business model for most IT services companies. We believe these trends will get more pronounced in the coming time and players that are able to adapt themselves to this new reality will be the winners in the long term.

5 Pharma - Regulatory actions re-defined the pharmaceutical sector in the past year and will continue to remain the focus area in the coming year as well. However, we believe, that the companies will emerge stronger and better and will continue to gain market share in export markets. Differentiated R&D skills and niche molecule focus will also aid the companies gain edge over competition. Investment During the year gone by, large ticket projects were missing, while stalled projects witnessed incremental improvement. Both of which should improve next year. Further, we expect the project pipeline to accelerate in select sectors (already evident in segments like roads, railways/ metros, ports, power t&d besides defense / mid-stream oil&gas) during CY16. Companies with healthy balance sheet should continue to have advantage over others. Summary In sum the macro narrative, both global and domestic, continues to be that of muted growth. The huge amount of monetary stimulus has been able to stabilise the developed world and put it to a path of slow albeit uneven economic recovery. The stress points however have shifted to the developing world with a protracted slowdown in world GDP growth rendering capacities unviable and opening up balance sheet gaps and economic imbalances. With twin deficits in most EM economies, yield curve, stock markets and currencies all have been impacted adversely. India does stand out in the world economic order with a resilient macro disposition. The monetary and fiscal stance is cautious and not expansive in light of global risk factors but there is ample room to get out of this self-imposed hawkish stance if need arises to stimulate the economy. The corporate sector is consolidating too, correcting balance sheet and cost structure excesses. We are well into this transition with ample signs of things stabilising. While the private capex is missing, the government is spending and announcing polices which are unlocking some spending pattern. We remain believers in the innate potential of India and patiently wait for India's macro strength to translate into GDP and earnings growth. In the interim and in absence of any significant investment trend we adopt a bottom up approach mapping certain smaller demand trends in the economy. We wish you a very happy New Year and happy investing.

6 Annexure - Economy in Charts USD INR Real Interest Rates % Nov-5 Aug-6 May-7 Feb-8 Nov-8 Some weakness in line with flow and Emerging market weakness Aug-9 May-1 Feb-11 Nov-11 Aug-12 May-13 Feb-14 Nov-14 Aug Higher Financial Savings -8-1 Nov-5 Jun-6 Jan-7 Aug-7 Mar-8 Oct-8 May-9 Dec-9 Jul-1 Feb-11 Sep-11 Apr-12 Nov-12 Jun-13 Jan-14 Aug-14 Mar-15 Oct-15 Commodities - CRY Index World GDP Growth % Nov-5 Aug-6 May-7 Feb-8 Commodity price debacle Nov-8 Aug-9 May-1 Feb-11 Nov-11 Aug-12 May-13 Feb-14 Nov-14 Aug Dec-5 Jun-6 Dec-6 Jun-7 Dec-7 Jun-8 Dec-8 Jun-9 Global growth recovery slow and patchy Dec-9 Jun-1 Dec-1 Jun-11 Dec-11 Jun-12 Dec-12 Jun-13 Dec-13 Jun-14 Dec-14 India Per Capita Income (USD) 39% GFCF/GDP (%) Plateauing per capita Income 37% 35% 33% 6 31% 4 2 Jan-5 Jan-6 Jan-7 Jan-8 Jan-9 Jan-1 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 29% 27% Poor Investment/ capex cycle 25% Jun-4 Jun-5 Jun-6 Jun-7 Jun-8 Jun-9 Jun-1 Jun-11 Jun-12 Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-15 Source CMIE/ Bloomberg

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