Equity & Debt Strategy
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1 Equity & Debt Strategy Mid Oct Nov 2
2 Equity Market Update & Equity MF Strategy
3 1/14 3/14 5/14 7/14 9/14 11/14 1/15 3/15 5/15 7/15 9/15 11/15 1/ 3/ 5/ 7/ 9/ 11/ 1/ 3/ 5/ 7/ 9/ cr Nifty-5 corrected post FII outflows but later recovered Equity market were mostly driven by global cues in September Significant FII outflow for 2 nd month in a row, Mutual Fund inflows have not been affected by market volatility 1,3 1,2 1,1 1, 9,9 Positive Global cues Fed signals shrinking 9,8 Trump s tax cut 9,7 North Korea proposal threatens Nuclear Test 9,6 15-Sep- 21-Sep- 27-Sep- 3-Oct- 9-Oct- 15-Oct- 19,5 19, 18,5 18,,5, cr 2, 15, 1, 5, -5, -1, -15, 18,187 15,886 11,98 9,5 3,965 5,4 2,529 Jun Jul Aug Sep -2,587-1,736-7,157-11,258 FII DII excl MF MF -11,837 NIFTY Index Nsemcap index Monthly SIP inflows are showing an increasing trajectory 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Indian markets have been broadly following the Emerging market returns even in 2 15% 1% 5% % -5% -1% -15% 1m MSCI EM Return 1m Nifty Return Source: Bloomberg, Kotak Institutional Equities (KIE), CLSA As of 1 th Oct 2 Confidential 3
4 Improvement in global data points US Yields and Dollar rise on Trump s tax reform announcement Supply side reforms in China have led to reduction in capacity and increase in commodity prices Month Back 2 Week Back 1 Week Back 3-Sep- US 1 Year Govvie Dollar Index RHS , 6, 5, Mn Tonnes 4, 3, 2, 1, 1,25 5,8 5,6 5,3 5,15 1,21 1,13 1,7 1, Steel Coal 2,14 2,15 2, 2F 218F 4,8 Baltic Dry Index hit 3 Year high reflecting strong global trade demand Both US and Europe GDP growth has been healthy Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep 1. Jun 15 Aug 15 Oct 15 Dec 15 Feb Apr US GDP Jun Aug Oct Euro Area GDP Dec Feb Apr Jun Source: Bloomberg, CLSA Confidential 4
5 FII Flows to India have been driven by Emerging Market ETFs, India allocation has been falling EPFR indicates CY 2 FII flows have been driven mostly through ETFs India allocation has reduced since beginning of the Year till August USD mn 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 4,958 ETF 4,684 Non ETF.% 14.% 12.% 1.% 8.% 6.% 4.% 2.%.% 14.% 12.5% Asia ex Japan Jan- Aug- 1.8% GEM 1.5% Outflows in Aug and Sep were a phenomenon across Emerging Markets FII holding in Indian Equity is significantly larger in size compared to Domestic MFs USD mn , India Indonesia Phillipines South Korea Taiwan Thailand Other DII, 2% Domestic Insurance, 5% Domestic MFs, 5% Retail, 9% BSE 5, As of Dec 2-1,5-2, -2,5 FII, 21% Promoters, 51% Aug Sep Source: KIE Confidential 5
6 Domestic Economy showed greenshoots in Aug-Sep PMI back to expansion as new orders came in Auto Sales bounced back strongly May Jun Jul Aug Sep May Jun Jul Aug Passenger Vehicle Sales MHCV Sales IIP also recovered mainly due to manufacturing and mining activity Exports also grew despite concerns over input tax credit May Jun Jul Aug May Jun Jul Aug Source: Nomura, Bloomberg, KIE Confidential 6
7 Earnings and Valuation Liquidity and Hope of strong Earnings growth has led to slightly expensive valuations Mid Cap Index consensus earnings expectation has seen recent downgrade leading to widening premium over large cap Bloomberg Estimate % 15.3 Premium 12M Forward PE MSCI India P/E Premium over MSCI EM is close to average level 37.2% 48% 44% 4% 36%. Large Cap Current 12M Forward PE Mid Cap 5 Year Average Mar 2 Apr 2 May 2 Jun 2 Jul 2 Aug 2 Sep 2 Oct 2 32% Bloomberg Consensus FY18 Nifty EPS estimates have fallen since beginning of the Year mostly due to GST and Demon impact 547 Jan- Feb- Mar- Apr- May- Jun- Jul- Aug- Sep Banking and Automobile sector to lead Earnings growth Automobiles Banking Consumers Energy Pharma Technology Earnings Growth FY18-19E P/219E Source: Bloomberg. Large Cap is represented by Nifty 5 & Mid Cap is represented by CNX Mid Cap 1 Confidential 7
8 Recapitalization of PSU Banks The government on 24 th October, 2 announced an allocation of Rs 2.11 lakh crores over two fiscal years for the recapitalization of public sector banks. The recapitalization plan is intended to help banks make adequate provisions against bad loans and revive lending, which, in turn, may help support a recovery in the economy and private investment.. The plan is split into two parts: Bulk of the capital - Rs 1.35 lakh crore - may come via the issue of recapitalization bonds The remaining Rs 76, crore, which includes Rs 18, crore already allocated under the Indradhanush Recapitalization Scheme, may come through budgetary support over two fiscal years. By recapitalising banks through a mix of bonds and cash infusions, the government expects that it will maintain its fiscal deficit target. Confidential 8
9 Key Triggers GST Implementation and Monsoon Positive Triggers Global Economic data : World economy improving Lower Domestic Interest rates: Many Banks have cut their MCLR sharply which should help in reviving credit demand Resolution of NPA: Effective addressal by government of NPA issue in Indian Banks Fiscal Stimulus: Benefit infra related sectors Risks Trump Trade Revival: US Tax reforms could again trigger capital flight back from EM to US Earnings: Consensus estimates of earnings growth for domestic equities is high at around 15-2%, any downgrade would make the valuations more expensive Geo-Political Risk: Political uncertainty in UK & Spain. Geo political risk between US & North Korea Monetary Policy: Faster than expected global monetary tightening Confidential 9
10 India Equities: Valuations & Strategy Maintain Neutral Stance Post rising to a lifetime high, markets corrected to end the month of September with a 1% fall. The fall was primarily on account of geo-political risks. Indian markets have primarily been following other emerging market trends for the year. On the positive front, inflows into monthly systematic investment plans (SIPs) have been increasing at a steady pace and thereby taking markets to new life time highs. At current levels of approx. 1,27 (24 th October, 2), Nifty is trading at a 1 year forward PE of 19.6X. In the current scenario, we continue to maintain a Neutral stance. Mutual Funds: As domestic liquidity continues to drive markets, we advise new investments in Mutual Funds to be deployed 25% in lumpsum and subsequent in tranches via SIPs/STPs. Recommended allocation within equity mutual funds is as under: 1% Large Cap allocation (Prefer Large Caps due to relatively Favorable Valuations) This allocation to Large caps can also be taken through Opportunistic Funds which currently have a bias towards Large cap For investors who want equity exposure but have low appetite for volatility, they can take equity exposure through Balanced Funds. Balanced funds have around 25% to 3% of their portfolio into Debt instruments which provides cushion to the portfolio return during market volatility. Source: EPS Estimates by KIE Confidential 1
11 Debt Market Update & Debt MF Strategy
12 Debt Market: Key Variables Indicators Policy Action We maintain our expectation that the RBI will pause on rate cut Tone of the policy seemed little hawkish, emphasis on inflation One member pushed for 25 bps cut 1 Year G-Sec Benchmark Yield 1 Yr yield likely to remain in range of % Inflation CPI increased to 3.28% in September 2 RBI increased CPI forecast to 4.2%-4.6% for 2HFY18 We expect CPI 4.7% for Mar 218 vs 4.5%estimate of RBI INR Weakened to 65 Level Will depend on crude price movement and Equity flows Liquidity Liquidity surplus has reduced to Rs 1.7 trn plus Reduced due to Advance Tax and could reduce further due to festive season OMO pace remains key G-Sec Supply The gross G-Sec supply to be Rs. 5.8 trn SDL issuance of Rs. ~4 trn + expected; QFY18 issuance expected to be Rs. ~1.2 trn Key Risks US policies; Fed hikes; Global monetary tightening Impact of 7CPC allowance implementation on CPI Strengthening of US Dollar Farm loan waivers can impact FD by 1. to 1.3% of GDP Confidential 12
13 % Yield Spread (bps) Amount in Rs. Bn % Yield Spread (bps) Yields have spiked over the last one month over concerns on Fiscal Deficits Liquidity has reduced close to quarter end G Sec Spread over Repo near highest in last 1 Year 4, 3, 2, 1, 1, /8 5/9 1/9 15/9 2/9 25/9 3/9 Spread 1 Year G Sec Repo Rate Inflation stabilizing below 4% Longer Duration yields have increased by 15-2 bps 5.% 4.5% 4.% 3.5% 3.% 2.5% 2.% 1.5% 1.%.5%.% Nov Dec CPI Jan Feb Core Inflation Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug 4.12% 3.28% Sep Y 2Y 3Y 4Y 5Y 8Y 1Y Change Current G-Sec Yield 1M earlier G-Sec Yield Note: As of 1 th Oct 2, Source Bloomberg Confidential 13
14 USD Million FII flows slowed down after consecutive 6 months of strong inflow FIIs buying streak continued, CYTD $2bn inflow from FIIs 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, -1, Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Higher crude prices remains a risk for Indian Bonds Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Indian currency also weakened over macro worries FII Debt Utilization in GSecs and Corporate near 1%, interest in SDLs increasing Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct 1.% 9.% 8.% 7.% 6.% 5.% 4.% 3.% 2.% 1.%.% Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug 99.5% 95.2% 13.94% Sep Government Corporate SDL Source Bloomberg Confidential 14
15 India Fixed Income: Strategy Substantial part of the portfolio should be deployed through a mix of high rated and credit accrual strategies. Exit from duration funds only for investors who have completed 3 years and can deploy with another 3 years view. Investment Focus: Passive Accrual-Oriented Debt funds High quality portfolios (~1% AAA / Sovereign) Portfolio is run on a passive accrual basis i.e buying a bond and holding it till maturity thereby earning from the accruing of interest Higher predictability of return, lower volatility & lower interest rate risk High Yield Credit-Oriented Funds Low volatility on account of maturity of portfolio between 3 5 years, attractive and stable accrual yields Experienced teams to carefully evaluate and tightly monitor high yielding debt instruments Short Term Bond Funds Actively managed to run a low avg. maturity of 2-3 years, attractive risk-reward Lower volatility and interest rate risk than Dynamic Bond Funds, better suited from a risk-adjusted basis in volatile markets Continue to recommend ultra short term relative to liquid funds (up to 3 Months) For short term parking of funds for a minimum of 6 months, Arbitrage funds preferred over ultra short term funds on back of better tax adjusted returns Source : AMCs, other Financial websites Confidential 15
16 Disclaimer The aforesaid is for information purposes only and should not be construed to be investment advice under SEBI (Investment Advisory) Regulations. In the preparation of the material contained in this document, Kotak Mahindra Bank has used information that is publicly available, including information developed inhouse. Some of the material used in the document may have been obtained from members/persons other than the Kotak Mahindra Bank and/or its affiliates and which may have been made available to Kotak Mahindra Bank and/or its affiliates. Information gathered & material used in this document is believed to be from reliable sources. Kotak Mahindra Bank however does not warrant the accuracy, reasonableness and/or completeness of any information. For data reference to any third party in this material no such party will assume any liability for the same. Kotak Mahindra Bank and/or any affiliate of Kotak Mahindra Bank does not in any way through this material solicit any offer for purchase, sale or any financial transaction/commodities/products of any financial instrument dealt in this material. All recipients of this material should before dealing and or transacting in any of the products referred to in this material make their own investigation, seek appropriate professional advice We have included statements/opinions/recommendations in this document which contain words or phrases such as "will", "expect" "should" and similar expressions or variations of such expressions, that are "forward looking statements". Actual results may differ materially from those suggested by the forward looking statements due to risks or uncertainties associated with our expectations with respect to, but not limited to, exposure to market risks, general economic and political conditions in India and other countries globally, which have an impact on our services and / or investments, the monetary and interest policies of India, inflation, deflation, unanticipated turbulence in interest rates, foreign exchange rates, equity prices or other rates or prices, the performance of the financial markets in India and globally, changes in domestic and foreign laws, regulations and taxes and changes in competition in the industry. By their nature, certain market risk disclosures are only estimates and could be materially different from what actually occurs in the future. As a result, actual future gains or losses could materially differ from those that have been estimated Kotak Mahindra Bank (including its affiliates) and any of its officers directors, personnel and employees, shall not liable for any loss, damage of any nature, including but not limited to direct, indirect, punitive, special, exemplary, consequential, as also any loss of profit in any way arising from the use of this material in any manner. The recipient alone shall be fully responsible/ are liable for any decision taken on the basis of this material. The investments discussed in this material may not be suitable for all investors. Any person subscribing to or investing in any product/financial instruments should do so on the basis of and after verifying the terms attached to such product/financial instrument. Financial products and instruments are subject to market risks and yields may fluctuate depending on various factors affecting capital/debt markets. Please note that past performance of the financial products and instruments does not necessarily indicate the future prospects and performance thereof. Such past performance mayor may not be sustained in future. Kotak Mahindra Bank (including its affiliates) or its officers, directors, personnel and employees, including persons involved in the preparation or issuance of this material may; (a) from time to time, have long or short positions in, and buy or sell the securities mentioned herein or (b) be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other compensation in the financial instruments/products/commodities discussed herein or act as advisor or lender / borrower in respect of such securities/financial instruments/products/commodities or have other potential conflict of interest with respect to any recommendation and related information and opinions. The said persons may have acted upon and/or in a manner contradictory with the information contained here. No part of this material may be duplicated in whole or in part in any form and or redistributed without the prior written consent of Kotak Mahindra Bank. This material is strictly confidential to the recipient and should not be reproduced or disseminated to anyone else This material is not a research report as per the SEBI (Research Analyst) Regulations, 214. Mutual Fund investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme related documents carefully. Confidential
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