Monthly Market Outlook

Transcription

1 Monthly Market Outlook March 2018 Equity : Earnings - A Key Trigger to watch out Fixed Income : Time to invest at an elevated yield 1

2 World Index month Return (%) Due to global equity sell-off last month, the gains made by global indices early this year were completely wiped off with Brazil and Russia being the only countries that ended in the positive. Germany - DAX Index; China - SSE Composite Index; France - CAC 40 Index; Japan - Nikkei; Europe - Euronext 100; Hong Kong - HangSeng; US - Dow Jones; Singapore - Strait Times; Russia - RTS Index; Indonesia - Jakarta Composite Index; U.K. - FTSE; South Korea - Kospi; Brazil - Ibovespa Sao Paulo Index; Indonesia Jakarta Composite Index; Switzerland Swiss Market Index; Taiwan Taiwan Stock Exchange Corporation; India S&P BSE Sensex; Returns in % terms. Data Source: MFI; Returns are absolute returns calculated between Jan 31, 2018 Feb 28, Past Performance may or may not be sustained in future. 2

3 Sector Index month Return (%) Tracking the fall in global markets, all the sector indices ended lower in February Among the market-cap based indices, the Small cap index delivered the least negative returns Index 1 Month (%) S&P BSE SmallCap S&P BSE MidCap S&P BSE Sensex All indices are of S&P BSE and carry the prefix of S&P BSE; Abbreviated CD - S&P BSE Consumer Durables; CG - S&P BSE Capital Goods; FMCG - S&P BSE Fast Moving Consumer Goods; HC - S&P BSE Health Care; Infra. - S&P BSE India Infrastructure; IT - S&P BSE Information Technology. Data Source: MFI; Returns are absolute returns calculated between Jan 31, 2018 Feb 28, Past Performance may or may not be sustained in future. The stock(s)/sector(s) mentioned in this slide do not constitute any recommendation and ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund may or may not have any future position in this stock(s). 3

4 Volatility makes a comeback The month of February marked heightened volatility with the Volatility Index reaching record levels Global VIX touched a two year high of on February 5, 2018 and India VIX touched one year high of 20.0 on February 6, Global VIX India VIX Data as on Feb 28, Source: NSE, CBOE. India VIX is a Volatility Index based on prices of Nifty options. Global VIX refers to the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index. 4

5 Asset purchases by Global central banks Globally, Central banks have reduced the pace of asset purchases. This coupled with strong US economic data has led to inflationary concerns causing spike in interest rate yields. 55% Global Central Bank Balance Sheet % YoY growth Hardening of 10 Yr G-Sec Yields (%) % 35% 25% % 5% European Central Bank Bank of Japan USA (LHS) UK (RHS) Data as on Feb 28, Source: Morgan Stanley Research 5

6 Equity Outlook Earnings : A Key Trigger to watch out for 6

7 Feb-03 Feb-04 Feb-05 Feb-06 Feb-07 Feb-08 Feb-09 Feb-10 Feb-11 Feb-12 Feb-13 Feb-14 Feb-15 Feb-16 Feb-17 Feb-18 Feb-06 Feb-07 Feb-08 Feb-09 Feb-10 Feb-11 Feb-12 Feb-13 Feb-14 Feb-15 Feb-16 Feb-17 Feb-18 Valuations relatively expensive Sensex P/E trading at above the historical average Mid-cap is trading at a premium of 117% over Large cap S&P BSE Sensex P/E levels S&P BSE Sensex P/E S&P BSE Midcap P/E Source: BSE India. Data as on Feb 28, P/E: Price-to-Earnings ratio 7

8 Earnings on a revival path We believe earnings revival is a key trigger for valuations to sustain. Nifty 50 EPS (Rs) FY01 FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 Source: Edelweiss Investment Research; The EPS for FY18, FY19 and FY20 are Estimates. Past Performance may or may not be sustained in future. 8

9 Trigger for Earnings Fiscal spending Consumer demand Supportive global growth Earnings Capex improvement 9

10 Supportive global growth Global growth has been flat/negative over the last decade. Global earnings is expected to revive which could support earnings growth in the Indian markets. MSCI World Index EPS (Rs) CAGR -2.5% CAGR -26% Source: Edelweiss Investment Research; The EPS for 2018 and 2019 are Estimates. Past Performance may or may not be sustained in future. 10

11 Rising fiscal expenditure and Bouyant Consumer demand The Govt. has been increasing its fiscal expenditure to boost the economy. India s Per Capita Income is still far behind the $10000 mark. We believe there is potential for increase in Per Capita Income which could boost consumer demand Central Govt. Expenditure (Rs. in trillion) GDP per capita PPP dollars FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 RE FY19 BE Source: Edelweiss Investment Research; Citi. RE: Revised Estimates. BE: Budgeted Estimates. PPP: Purchasing Power Parity 11

12 Capex Cycle Infrastructure Spend (Government+ Private) has been rising. It is expected to see a surge in the next 4 years which could drive the capex cycle in the industry. Infrastructure spend (Rs. In Trillion) Power & T&D Railways Airports & Ports Highways Urban Others Total FY Actual FY RE FY RE Source: Edelweiss Investment Research ; RE: Revised Estimates. T&D: Transmission and Distribution 12

13 To Summarize our Outlook on Equity The markets plunged in February 2018 owing to the spike in 10-yr US bond yields, widening trade deficit and the unravelling of the suspected banking fraud. We continue to remain neutral on equity as valuations are relatively expensive. Earnings growth outlook seems positive led by supportive global growth, improving capex, fiscal spending, and buoyant consumer demand. Headwinds such as higher global interest rates, rise in crude prices, limited fiscal flexibility as reflected by rising bond yields, and events in the run-up to the 2019 elections could keep markets volatile. Investors who aim to benefit from this volatility in the medium-term could opt for asset allocation schemes. Considering the attractiveness of largecap valuations over mid and smallcap, we recommend investing in largecap-oriented schemes. Investors who intend to maintain asset allocation by taking adequate exposure in debt asset could consider investing in conservative hybrid schemes. 13

14 Risks to Our Outlook High Global Interest rates Rise in Crude Prices Election results Risks 14

15 Valuation Index Equity Valuation Index Our equity valuation index indicates that investors could consider investing in asset allocation schemes with low net equity levels. Investors looking to invest in pure equity schemes could invest in large-cap oriented schemes. Investors with high risk appetite could invest in thematic schemes encompassing infrastructure and exports sectors. Equity Valuation index is calculated by assigning equal weights to Price-to-Earnings (PE), Price-to-Book (PB), G-Sec*PE and Market Cap to GDP ratio. G-Sec Government Securities. GDP Gross Domestic Product; EIF ICICI Prudential Equity Income Fund; BAF ICICI Prudential Balanced Advantage Fund; Dynamic ICICI Prudential Dynamic Plan; Balanced -- ICICI Prudential Balanced Fund; Asset Allocation Schemes that invest both in equity and fixed income None of the aforesaid recommendations are based on any assumptions. These are purely for reference and the investors are required to consult their financial advisors before investing. 15

16 Our Equity Recommendations These schemes aim to benefit from volatility and may be suitable for investors looking to invest in asset allocation schemes ICICI Prudential Balanced Advantage Fund ICICI Prudential Balanced Fund ICICI Prudential Dynamic Plan ICICI Prudential Equity Income Fund The asset allocation and investment strategy will be as per the Scheme Information Document 16

17 Conservative Hybrid Equity Thematic Our Equity Recommendations ICICI Prudential Focused Bluechip Equity Fund ICICI Prudential Multicap Fund The scheme invests in large-cap stocks. It follows a benchmark hugging approach. The scheme invests in stocks across market capitalisations ICICI Prudential Exports and Other Services Fund ICICI Prudential Infrastructure Fund These thematic schemes are for investors looking for exposure to particular themes. ICICI Prudential Top 100 Fund ICICI Prudential Value Discovery Fund The scheme invests predominantly in largecap stocks and also takes tactical exposure to midcap stocks The scheme follows a value investment style. It invests in diversified portfolio that are quoting at a discount to their fair/intrinsic value. ICICI Prudential MIP 25 (An Open Ended Income Scheme. Monthly income is not assured and is subject to the availability of distributable surplus.) This scheme predominantly invests in fixed income securities and a portion in equity and equity related securities The asset allocation and investment strategy will be as per the Scheme Information Document; 17

18 Fixed Income Outlook Time to invest at an elevated yield 18

19 1-Feb-18 3-Feb-18 5-Feb-18 7-Feb-18 9-Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb-18 1-Feb-18 3-Feb-18 5-Feb-18 7-Feb-18 9-Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb-18 1-Feb-18 3-Feb-18 5-Feb-18 7-Feb-18 9-Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb-18 Indian Bond Yields on a rise Year Gsec (%) AAA-3 Year (%) AA-3 Year (%) Jan Feb % 7.73% 31-Jan Feb % 7.86% 31-Jan Feb % 8.31% Source: Crisil Research. Past Performance may or may not be sustained in future. 19

20 Reasons for Increase in Bond Yields Rise in US 10 Year Treasury Yields Low Participation by PSU Banks Volatility in Crude Prices Hawkish Minutes of the Feb RBI Bi-monthly Monetary Policy Committee 20

21 US 10 Year Yield and Crude Prices The US 10 Year Treasury Yield has risen 40 bps since the start of the year over inflationary concerns Production cuts by Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries has led to spike in crude oil prices 3.0 US 10 Year G-Sec Yield (%) 75 Brent crude ($ per barrel) Jan Jan Jan Feb Feb-18 Source: Crisil Research, Internal. Past Performance may or may not be sustained in future. 21

22 Positives for the Bond Market A rating as Investment grade The Budget 2018 has proposed to move from 'AA' to 'A' grade ratings as Investment grade which can broaden the corporate bond market. Large Corporates to access Bond markets SEBI is expected to consider mandating, beginning with large Corporates, to meet about one-fourth of their financing needs from the bond market. This can provide much needed liquidity to the bond market. Revised Framework for resolution of stressed assets Revised timelines and prudential norms for restructuring of stressed assets has created a level playing ground for Banks and other corporate lenders. Source: Union Budget , RBI Circular dated 12 Feb,

23 Carry Over Repo Rate The Government securities and Corporate bonds are trading at healthy spreads over the Repo rate. We believe it would be beneficial for investors to invest at the prevailing high yields. 10 Year Yields (%) over Repo A AA AAA GSec Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb-18 Repo Source: Crisil Research. A, AA, AAA and G-Sec Yields are 10 Year Yields. 23

24 To summarize our Outlook on Fixed Income 10 Year yields were volatile and rose to a two-year high of 7.77% in the month of February 2018 Reason for rise in the 10-year G-sec yield was due to low participation by PSU banks in the bond market, rise in 10-year US treasury yields, volatility in crude prices and minutes of the February RBI Monetary Policy Committee review We believe inflation is expected to average around 5.5% in the first half of FY19 with a mild upside risk. For the medium-term, we continue to maintain a neutral stance on yields Going into 2018, given the current market conditions, it s important that investors maintain their asset allocation by taking adequate exposure into debt schemes. We recommend investors to invest in accrual schemes as they offer relatively higher yield-to-maturity. Investors can consider investing in ICICI Prudential Regular Savings Fund which focuses on accrual strategy. We recommend investors to invest in short duration schemes or invest systematically in medium to long duration schemes. Investors who aim to benefit from volatility could consider investing in ICICI Prudential Long Term Plan. 24

25 Feb-15 Apr-15 Jun-15 Aug-15 Oct-15 Dec-15 Feb-16 Apr-16 Jun-16 Aug-16 Oct-16 Dec-16 Feb-17 Apr-17 Jun-17 Aug-17 Oct-17 Dec-17 Feb-18 Debt Valuation Index High Duration Moderate Duration Low Duration Aggressively in High Duration Ultra Low Duration 4.10 We recommend investors to invest in Short Duration schemes or accrual schemes such as ICICI Prudential Regular Savings Fund For those investors who aim to benefit from volatility we recommend investors to invest in ICICI Prudential Long Term Plan. Debt Valuation Index considers WPI, CPI, Sensex YOY returns, Gold YOY returns and Real estate YOY returns over G-Sec yield, Current Account Balance and Crude Oil Movement for calculation. WPI Wholesale Price Index; CPI Consumer Price Index. None of the aforesaid recommendations are based on any assumptions. These are purely for reference and the investors are required to consult their financial advisors before investing. 25

26 Fixed Income Fixed Income Our Debt Recommendations ICICI Prudential Short Term Plan The scheme invests with the aim to maintain a short duration ICICI Prudential Long Term Plan The scheme maintains its duration level between 1 and 10 years, based on an in-house model. ICICI Prudential Regular Savings Fund ICICI Prudential Regular Income Fund (Income is not assured and is subject to the availability of distributable surplus.) Hold till maturity approach with focus on accruals Takes researched credit calls ICICI Prudential Savings Fund ICICI Prudential Corporate Bond Fund The scheme maintains a low duration and seeks to generate accrual income with low markto-market risk. The schemes follows a Hold-Till-Maturity approach The asset allocation and investment strategy will be as per the Scheme Information Document 26

27 Update on Key Schemes 27

28 Sensex Levels BAF Net Equity Exposure (%) Aim to Benefit From Market Volatility S&P BSE Sensex Levels and ICICI Prudential BAF Net Equity Exposure (%) Stock Selection Blend of Large and Mid Cap Stocks Asset Allocation Net Equity Level Range 30-80% based on In- HouseModel Derivative Strategy Derivative Exposure for Hedging / Portfolio Rebalancing Sensex Level Net Equity Exposure % Source: BSE. ICICI Prudential BAF ICIC Prudential Balanced Advantage Fund. Portfolio as on 28 Feb, Net Equity level has been calculated by adding long positions and subtracting short positions from the net assets value and includes foreign equity and units of mutual fund. Gross equity exposure is maintained between % of the portfolio. The asset allocation and investment strategy will be as per the Scheme Information Document 28

29 Benchmark Hugging ICICI Prudential Focused Bluechip Equity Fund s, benchmark hugging strategy ensures that it is well diversified across sectors and has sectoral weightage within +/-5% of benchmark (Nifty 50) 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Auto Auto Ancillaries Banks & Finance Consumer Non Durables & Retailing Oil, Gas & Petroleum Products Pharma & Healthcare Services Power Software 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% -10% Scheme Wt. Benchmark Wt. Difference (RHS) Data Source: MFI Explorer; Portfolio as on Feb 28, 2018; Past Performance may or may not be sustained in future. Wt weight; Benchmark: Nifty 50 Index. The asset allocation and investment strategy will be as per the Scheme Information Document 29

30 Accrual - Based Schemes Well Researched Credit Universe Based on various filters, qualitative and quantitative research Scheme Name Modified Yield-To- Duration (In Yrs.) Maturity (%) Broadened Exposure Mitigating concentration risk by diversification Managing Duration Risk Clearly defined modified duration range Strict Internal Limits at Issuer Level and rating level ICICI Prudential Regular Income Fund* ICICI Prudential Regular Savings Fund ICICI Prudential Corporate Bond Fund The asset allocation and investment strategy will be as per Scheme Information Document; Data as on February 28, 2018; *ICICI Prudential Regular Income Fund (An open-ended income scheme. Income is not assured and is subject to the availability of distributable surplus.) The asset allocation and investment strategy will be as per the Scheme Information Document 30

31 Riskometers ICICI Prudential Dynamic Plan is suitable for investors who are seeking*: Long term wealth creation solution A diversifed equity fund that aims for growth by investing in equity and debt (for defensive considerations) *Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them ICICI Prudential Balanced Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*: Long term wealth creation solution A balanced fund aiming for long term capital appreciation and current income by investing in equity as well as fixed income securities. *Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them ICICI Prudential Balanced Advantage Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*: Long term wealth creation solution An equity fund that aims for growth by investing in equity and derivatives. *Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them 31

32 Riskometers ICICI Prudential Focused Bluechip Equity Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*: Long term wealth creation solution A focused large cap equity fund that aims for growth by investing in companies in the large cap category *Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them ICICI Prudential Value Discovery Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*: Long term wealth creation solution A diversified equity fund that aims to generate returns by investing in stocks with attractive valuations *Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them ICICI Prudential Top 100 Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*: Long term wealth creation solution An equity fund that aims to provide long term capital appreciation by predominantly investing in equity and equity related securities. *Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them 32

33 Riskometers ICICI Prudential Equity Income Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*: Long term wealth creation solution An equity scheme that seeks to generate regular income through investments in fixed income securities, arbitrage and other derivative strategies and aim for long term capital appreciation by investing in equity and equity related instruments. *Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them ICICI Prudential Exports and Other Services Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*: Long term wealth creation solution An equity fund that aims for growth by predominantly investing in companies belonging to the service industry. *Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them ICICI Prudential Multicap Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*: Long term wealth creation solution A growth oriented equity fund that invests in equity and equity related securities of core sectors and associated feeder industries. *Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them 33

34 Riskometers ICICI Prudential Infrastructure Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*: Long term wealth creation solution An equity fund that aims for growth by primarily investing in securities of companies belonging to infrastructure and allied sectors. *Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them ICICI Prudential Savings Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*: Short term savings solution A debt fund that invests in debt and money market instruments of various maturities with an aim to maximise income while maintaining an optimum balance of yield, safety, and liquidity. *Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them ICICI Prudential Regular Income Fund (An open-ended income scheme. Income is not assured and is subject to the availability of distributable surplus.) This product is suitable for investors who are seeking*: Medium term regular income solution A hybrid fund that aims to generate regular income through investments primarily in debt and money market instruments and long term capital appreciation by investing a portion in equity. *Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them 34

35 Riskometers ICICI Prudential MIP 25 (An Open Ended Income Scheme. Monthly income is not assured and is subject to the availability of distributable surplus.) This Product is suitable for investors who are seeking*: Medium to Long term regular income solution A hybrid fund that aims to generate regular income through investments primarily in debt and money market instruments and long term capital appreciation by investing a portion in equity. *Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them ICICI Prudential Regular Savings Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*: Medium term savings solution A debt fund that aims to deliver consistent performance by investing in a basket of debt and money market instruments with a view to provide reasonable returns while maintaining optimum balance of safety, liquidity and yield. *Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them ICICI Prudential Corporate Bond Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*: Long term savings solution A debt fund that invests in debt and money market instruments of various maturities with a view to maximise income while maintaining optimum balance of yield, safety and liquidity. *Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them 35

36 Riskometers ICICI Prudential Short Term Plan is suitable for investors who are seeking*: Short term income generation and capital appreciation solution A debt fund that aims to generate income by investing in a range of debt and money market instruments of various maturities. *Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them ICICI Prudential Long Term Plan is suitable for investors who are seeking*: Medium term savings solution A Debt Fund that invests in debt and money market instruments with a view to maximise income while maintaining optimum balance of yield, safety and liquidity. *Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them 36

37 Disclaimer for Mutual Funds Mutual Fund investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme related documents carefully. All figures and other data given in this document are dated. The same may or may not be relevant at a future date. The AMC takes no responsibility of updating any data/information in this material from time to time. The information shall not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent of ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company Limited. Prospective investors are advised to consult their own legal, tax and financial advisors to determine possible tax, legal and other financial implication or consequence of subscribing to the units of ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund. Past Performance may or may not be sustained in future. Disclaimer: In the preparation of the material contained in this document, ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company Ltd. (the AMC) has used information that is publicly available, including information developed in-house. The stock(s)/sector(s) mentioned in this slide do not constitute any recommendation and ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund may or may not have any future position in this stock(s). Some of the material used in the document may have been obtained from members/persons other than the AMC and/or its affiliates and which may have been made available to the AMC and/or to its affiliates. Information gathered and material used in this document is believed to be from reliable sources. The AMC however does not warrant the accuracy, reasonableness and / or completeness of any information. We have included statements / opinions / recommendations in this document, which contain words, or phrases such as will, expect, should, believe and similar expressions or variations of such expressions, that are forward looking statements. Actual results may differ materially from those suggested by the forward looking statements due to risk or uncertainties associated with our expectations with respect to, but not limited to, exposure to market risks, general economic and political conditions in India and other countries globally, which have an impact on our services and / or investments, the monetary and interest policies of India, inflation, deflation, unanticipated turbulence in interest rates, foreign exchange rates, equity prices or other rates or prices etc. ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company Limited (including its affiliates), the Mutual Fund, The Trust and any of its officers, directors, personnel and employees, shall not liable for any loss, damage of any nature, including but not limited to direct, indirect, punitive, special, exemplary, consequential, as also any loss of profit in any way arising from the use of this material in any manner. Further, the information contained herein should not be construed as forecast or promise or investment advice. The recipient alone shall be fully responsible/are liable for any decision taken on this material. 37