Emergency Resilience Risk Assessment

Transcription

1 Emergency Resilience Assessment ANNEX 3 vember 2011 The Operating Framework for the NHS in England 2011/12 states: Emergency Preparedness and Resilience across the NHS continues to be a high priority. All NHS organisations should maintain and test plans and arrangements to deliver an effective response to threats and hazards. Therefore the purpose of this Assessment is to identify possible threats and hazards which could impact on the communities of South Yorkshire & Bassetlaw, and thereby inform NHS contingency planning arrangements. This Assessment has been carried out in compliance with the provisions of the Civil Contingencies Act 2004 and the associated Contingency Planning Regulations The sources of information include: the National Resilience Planning Assumptions 2011 and the National Register of Civil Emergencies The National Register provides a national picture of the risks of emergencies. The Matrix below gives an indication of the relative likelihood and impact of the high consequence risks that are outlined in the National Register. It includes the risk of a number of kinds of terrorist attacks, shown here as attacks on crowded places, transport systems, and critical infrastructure, and attacks using nonconventional (or in other words chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear) materials. NHS South Yorkshire & Bassetlaw Emergency Resilience Assessment 1

2 In planning for emergencies in the South Yorkshire & Bassetlaw area, we take into account the above national planning assumptions together with the Cabinet Office Local Assessment Guidance 2010/11. The NHS is represented at local multi-agency working groups to consider National guidance and incorporate locally supplied information and historical evidence to develop a Local Resilience Forum Community Register for both South Yorkshire and ttinghamshire. The NHS South Yorkshire & Bassetlaw Emergency Resilience Assessment is documented at Table 1 below. It draws on the information sources outlined above but is not an exhaustive list of every conceivable event, rather it is those events which would constitute an Emergency for NHS South Yorkshire & Bassetlaw within the meaning of the Civil Contingencies Act. It also concentrates on events that remain within our functions to act in order to prevent, reduce, control or mitigate the effects of that event. It includes some events, which may not occur in South Yorkshire & Bassetlaw, but could nevertheless have an impact on local people or local health organisations, such as an interruption to international oil supplies. Overall ratings for each type of hazard are given in the Assessments listed below. This is obtained by multiplying ratings for impact (Table 2) and likelihood (Table 3) together to produce an Overall rating as shown in Table 4. te: these ratings are in accordance with the latest Local Assessment Guidance 2010/11 and supersede the ratings in Chapter 4 of Emergency Preparedness which is presently being updated by the Cabinet Office as part of the Civil Contingencies Act Enhancement Programme. Assessment descriptions refer to the potential scale of each hazard and are not predictions relating to particular incidents or sites, but indicate the potential maximum scale of problems relating to that hazard, based upon the principle of a reasonable worst case scenario. It should be noted that where the descriptor insignificant or minor" is used, this refers to the level of impact on an overall basis. It is not intended to diminish the scale of any impact on the lives of individuals. Assessment descriptions refer to the chances or probability of the event either occurring in or impacting on the communities of South Yorkshire & Bassetlaw. This Emergency Resilience Assessment will be maintained by the Emergency Resilience Unit and used to identify and assess potential Threats and Hazards and, where required, develop appropriate control measures and emergency planning arrangements to ensure that NHS South Yorkshire & Bassetlaw is able to maintain the capacity of NHS Commissioners to carry out effective Emergency Preparedness, Resilience and Response functions during the transition period. NOTE: the protective marking of this document, which should not be circulated wider than is necessary within NHS South Yorkshire & Bassetlaw.. NHS South Yorkshire & Bassetlaw Emergency Resilience Assessment 2

3 Very Catastrophic Med Very Med Very Section 1: Health Related Hazards Table 1 Assurance on Controls 1 Influenza pandemic Potential for loss of life or illness. Increased demand for all NHS services. Numbers of staff affected and unable to attend work. Disruption to other services and supply chain. Pandemic Flu Plan Staff awareness & training Vaccination against seasonal flu Exercise Achilles October 2010 SHA Led Regional Winter Planning workshop May Zoonotic notifiable animal disease, such as ly Pathogenic Avian Influenza, Rabies, West Nile Virus, Anthrax potential for human infection causing increased demand for NHS services Mass Treatment Plan HPA Disease specific plans 3 Infectious disease outbreak from an existing or newly emerging infectious disease. Potential for loss of life or serious illness. Possible long term health consequences. Increased demand on all NHS services Mass Treatment Plan HPA Disease specific plans Infection Control procedures Exercise Tom Thumb PCT led sub-regional exercise involving deliberate release of Anthrax March Unplanned closure of hospital potential evacuation of inpatients. Need to transfer A & E services to other locations. Cancellation of routine activities s s Lock down plans Evacuation plans (ongoing) Ethical Exercise February 2011 Exercise Artimis vember 2011 NHS South Yorkshire & Bassetlaw Emergency Resilience Assessment 3

4 Assurance on Controls 5 Staff assault includes hostage taking. Potential injury and distress to staff. Disruption to activities Security procedures Staff awareness and training Lock down plans Project ARGUS 2010 Exercise Artimis vember 2011 NHS South Yorkshire & Bassetlaw Emergency Resilience Assessment 4

5 Med Very Med Very Low Low Section 2: Business Continuity Related Hazards Assurance on controls 6 NHS Reforms reduction in ability to co-ordinate a joint health care response to emergencies during the transition period for the ongoing NHS Reforms and the Transforming Community Services agenda PCT Cluster Accountability Framework Cluster On-Call arrangements EPRR Transition Work Programme Shared Operating Model for PCT Clusters SHA transitional Resilience Assurance Framework June 2011 SHA EPRR Assurance process vember Employee shortage Disruption to all activities, financial implications to PCT / partners / service providers H.R. Policies Mutual Aid agreements PCT Cluster arrangements 8 Industrial Action internal, potentially reducing numbers of staff at work or external affecting service providers. Both have the ability to disrupt our normal service provision s Agenda for Change HR Policies Shadowing policies 9 Damage or loss of building accidental, caused by structural failure, fire or flood etc. Short or long term disruption to service and displacement of staff. Potential for loss of life or injury to staff and patients s Estate policies H & S fire drills Mutual aid agreements Live Exercise Godiva July 2010 NHS South Yorkshire & Bassetlaw Emergency Resilience Assessment 5

6 Assurance on controls 10 Failure of Utilities (electric, gas, water, telecoms) Potential disruption to all service activities with financial implications to PCT / partners / service providers. Damage to infrastructure, equipment. Estates policies National infrastructure plan Exercise Hornblower February 2011 Exercise Comit August Internal I.T.C. failure Potential to disrupt all service activities with financial implications and impacts on the health of the community I.T.C. Procedures & Recovery plans IG Tool Kit Exercise Hornblower February 2011 Exercise Comit August Supply chain failure failure on the part of our partners or suppliers can disrupt our own service and impact on the health of the community Suppliers BCM Plans Contracts with suppliers Mutual aid arrangements Winter plans 13 Fuel shortage Potential disruption to all activities with staff not being able to get to work. Restrictions on transport for GP s, District Nurses etc affecting community care s Fuel planning arrangements Workforce planning Exercise Fuel January Fraud Potential to cause financial loss to PCT / partners / service providers and loss of business Fraud procedures Security procedures IG Tool Kit Governance Committee NHS South Yorkshire & Bassetlaw Emergency Resilience Assessment 6

7 Very Med Very Med Med Med Section 3: Climate Change Related Hazards Assurance on Controls 15 Storms & Gales Potential for loss of life or injury. Structural damage to estates and facilities. Disruption to all activities. Adverse effects on transport and other services. Met Office Severe Weather Warning Service Internal communications Estates Policies 16 Low temperatures & Heavy snow Potential for loss of life or injury. Disruption to all activities. Adverse effects on transport and other services. Numbers of staff unable to attend work. HR Policies & workforce planning Met Office Cold Weather Alert Service Internal communications s Winter plans SHA Led Regional Winter Planning workshop May 2011 Exercise Winter Chill vember Heatwave Potential for loss of life or injury. Increased demand for primary care services. Estates Policies Heatwave Plan Met Office Heat Health Watch Service NHS South Yorkshire & Bassetlaw Emergency Resilience Assessment 7

8 Limited Low Assurance on Controls Estates Policies 18 Flooding / inundation Including Fluvial or surface water. Potential for illness or injury. Damage or loss of buildings. Disruption to all activities. Adverse effects on transport and other services. Numbers of staff unable to attend work. HR Policies Met Office Severe Weather Warning Service Internal communications Flood plans Rest Centre plans Exercise Buffer vember Drought Potential for increased disease. Disruption to routine services. Met Office Severe Weather Warning Service Internal communications NHS South Yorkshire & Bassetlaw Emergency Resilience Assessment 8

9 Low Low Possible Possible Section 4: Major Incident Related Hazards Assurance on Controls 20 Major Road transport incident Potential for loss of life or serious injury. Possible long term demand for health care. Disruption to transport networks and services Mass Casualty Plan Business Continuity plans 21 Major transport incident other, involving rail or air. Potential for loss of life or serious injury. Possible long term demand for health care. Disruption to transport networks and services Mass Casualty Plan Business Continuity plans Project ARGUS 2010 HPA Exercise Magpie June Fire or explosion covering various industrial type explosions or Major fires. Potential for loss of life or serious injury. Possible long term demand for health care for blast or burn injuries Mass Casualty Plan Business Continuity plans COMAH Plans Estates policies Exercise Octavian 2010 Exercise Victrex March 2011 Exercise Emergo October 2011 NHS South Yorkshire & Bassetlaw Emergency Resilience Assessment 9

10 Catastrophic Low Low Assurance on Controls Exercise Purple Rain October Toxic chemical release Potential for loss of life or serious illness. Possible long term health consequences. Increased demand on all NHS services Mass Casualty Plan Business Continuity plans COMAH Plans Communications Plans Exercise Argon Choice January 2011 Exercise Victrex March 2011 Exercise Maypole May Radiation release from incorrectly handled or disposed of sources. Potential for loss of life and long term health consequences. Long term contamination of affected area Mass Casualty Plan Business Continuity plans Communications plans Live Exercise Godiva July 2010 Exercise Magpie May Mass Casualty Incident from any other cause, accidental or natural hazard. Potential to overwhelm routine escalation procedures, with long term demand for health care services Mass Casualty Plan Exercise ARES June 2011 Exercise Emergo July 2011 Exercise Embrace October 2011 Exercise Vespa vember 2011 NHS South Yorkshire & Bassetlaw Emergency Resilience Assessment 10

11 Assurance on Controls 26 Biological substance release e.g. pathogen release from a containment lab or Legionella release due to poor building environmental control. Potential for loss of life or serious illness. Possible long term health consequences. Increased demand on all NHS services Mass Treatment Plan Regional Smallpox plan Exercise Tom Thumb PCT led sub-regional exercise involving deliberate release of Anthrax March Crowd Related Disaster caused by uncontrolled movement within a crowd at a public event. Potential for loss of life or serious injury. Possible long term demand for health care. Olympics plans Exercise Purple Flame v Large scale public protest with a hard core of protesters causing violence and damage. Potential for loss of life or serious injury. Possible long term demand for health care. Disruption to transport networks and services NHS South Yorkshire & Bassetlaw Emergency Resilience Assessment 11

12 Catastrophic Very Very Very Section 5: Threats Threat Description Assurance on Controls 29 Conventional Terrorist Attack or other malicious or deliberate attack on crowded places or transport networks. Causing fatalities, casualties, environmental damage or social/economic disruption. Government Counter Terrorism Strategy (CONTEST) Mass Casualty Plan Bomb & Suspect Package plans Project ARGUS n Conventional Terrorist Attack or other malicious or deliberate attack on crowded places or transport networks, using chemical, biological or radiological substances. Causing fatalities, casualties, environmental damage or social/economic disruption. Government Counter Terrorism Strategy (CONTEST) Mass Casualty Plan Bomb & Suspect Package plans Project ARGUS 2010 Live Exercise Godiva July 2010 NHS South Yorkshire & Bassetlaw Emergency Resilience Assessment 12

13 Table 2 scoring scale qualitative measures Level Descriptor Categories of Description of impact 1 Limited Health Social Economic Insignificant number of injuries or impact on health Insignificant number of persons displaced and insignificant personal support required Insignificant disruption to community services, including transport services and infrastructure Insignificant impact on local economy Environment Insignificant impact on environment 2 Health Social Economic Small number of people affected, no fatalities, and small number of minor injuries with first aid treatment damage to properties displacement of a small number of people for up to 24 hours and minor personal support required localised disruption to community services or infrastructure for up to 24 hours Negligible impact on local economy and cost easily absorbed Environment impact on environment with no lasting effects NHS South Yorkshire & Bassetlaw Emergency Resilience Assessment 13

14 Level Descriptor Categories of Description of impact Health Sufficient number of fatalities with some casualties requiring hospitalisation and medical treatment and activation of MAJAX procedures in one or more hospitals 3 4 Social Economic Environment Health Social Economic Environment Damage that is confined to a specific location, or to a number of locations, but requires additional resources Localised displacement of up to 100 people for 1 3 days Localised disruption to infrastructure and community services Limited impact on local economy with some short-term loss of production, with possible additional clean-up costs Limited impact on environment with short-term or long-term effects number of people in affected area impacted with multiple fatalities, multiple serious or extensive injuries, significant hospitalisation and activation of MAJAX procedures across a number of hospitals damage that requires support for local responders with external resources 100 to 500 people in danger and displaced for longer than 1 week. Local responders require external resources to deliver personal support impact on and possible breakdown of delivery of some local community services impact on local economy with medium-term loss of production extra clean-up and recovery costs impact on environment with medium- to long-term effects NHS South Yorkshire & Bassetlaw Emergency Resilience Assessment 14

15 Level Descriptor Categories of Description of impact Health Very large numbers of people in affected area(s) impacted with significant numbers of fatalities, large number of people requiring hospitalisation with serious injuries with longer-term effects 5 Catastrophic Social Economic Environment Extensive damage to properties and built environment in affected area requiring major demolition General and widespread displacement of more than 500 people for prolonged duration and extensive personal support required Serious damage to infrastructure causing significant disruption to, or loss of, key services for prolonged period. Community unable to function without significant support Serious impact on local and regional economy with some long-term, potentially permanent, loss of production with some structural change Extensive clean-up and recovery costs Serious long-term impact on environment and/or permanent damage NHS South Yorkshire & Bassetlaw Emergency Resilience Assessment 15

16 Table 3 scoring scale Level Descriptor over 5 years Description of over 5 years 1 Low Estimated at 0.005% It is a conceivable but highly remote possibility 2 Low Estimated at 0.05% 3 Estimated at 0.5% 4 Estimated at 5% 5 Estimated at 50% significant incidents of this type have occurred in South Yorkshire & Bassetlaw, but it is capable of happening Has occurred in South Yorkshire & Bassetlaw and is capable of happening again Has occurred on multiple occasions in South Yorkshire & Bassetlaw and is capable of happening again Has occurred on multiple occasions in South Yorkshire & Bassetlaw and is expected to occur in the future. NHS South Yorkshire & Bassetlaw Emergency Resilience Assessment 16

17 Limited Catastrophic Table 4 Overall Very Low Low Low NHS South Yorkshire & Bassetlaw Emergency Resilience Assessment 17