Wildfires: An Expanding Threat?
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1 Wildfires: An Expanding Threat? Arindam Samanta PhD Director, Product Management and Innovation
2 Policy Statement FEMA/Adam DuBrowa
3 Wildfire Damage Greatly Impacts Society 2017 Insurance Services Office, Inc. All rights reserved.
4 Wildfire Related Losses Greatly Impact a Carrier s Profitability 2017 Insurance Services Office, Inc. All rights reserved.
5 Recent Wildfire Seasons: 2015 A record breaking season of wildfire activity The Valley Fire Destroyed 1,955 homes and buildings in Lake, Napa, and Sonoma Counties The Butte Fire Destroyed 921 homes and buildings in Amador and Calaveras Counties More than $900 million in insured losses. Estimated $300 million in insured losses.
6 Recent Wildfire Seasons: 2016 Ft. Mc Murray Fire was Canada s costliest natural catastrophe for insurers Gatlinburg Fire in TN was a very costly natural catastrophe for insurers Over 1.5 million acres burned Extreme drought conditions rainfall below 70% of normal levels Large scale evacuations Large scale evacuations $2.96 billion insurance losses (per PCS) $938 million Insurance losses (per PCS) 2,400 houses and buildings destroyed
7 2017 Wildfire Season Outlook 2017 Insurance Services Office, Inc. All rights reserved.
8 2017 Wildfire Season Outlook 2017 Insurance Services Office, Inc. All rights reserved.
9 The Science of Wildfire Risk Vegetative Fuels Topography Road Access
10 Valley Fire: Summary FireLine Highlights: Over 1000 damaged / destroyed properties (several thousand structures) Percentage of damaged / destroyed properties identified as exposed to the wildfire hazard: Source: GEOMAC ( and Lake County GIS: ( Percentage of damaged / destroyed properties located in moderate to high/extreme risk areas: Valley Fire, CA, September 2015: Fuels analyzed in FireLine are shown in map colors.
11 Butte Fire: Summary FireLine Highlights: Almost 600 damaged / destroyed properties Percentage of damaged / destroyed properties identified as exposed to the wildfire hazard: Source: GEOMAC( Percentage of damaged / destroyed properties located in moderate to high/extreme risk areas Butte Fire, CA, September 2015: Fuels analyzed in FireLine are shown in map colors.
12 Ft. McMurray Fire: Summary FireLine Highlights: Over 1.5 million acres burned Percentage of burned area at risk: Percentage of burned area at high/extreme risk: Ft. McMurray Fire, Canada, May 2016: Fuels analyzed in FireLine are shown in map colors.
13 Changes in Wildfire Activity Climatic factor influence changes in wildfire activity on yearto-year (and decadal timescales) Fluctuations in temperature Drought conditions Effects of climatic phenomena like El Niño/La Niña. Earlier snowpack melting in spring
14 Development in Wildland Areas Since 1990, 60 percent of all new housing units in the United States were constructed in WUI zones. Locations where built structures abut or intermingle with undeveloped natural areas In 2010, the WUI was home to about 99 million people The states with the greatest number of homes in the WUI are CA, TX, FL, NC, and GA The WUI is located throughout the United States
15 Role of Building Materials Building materials influence fire protection Damage via direct contact, radiant heat, and embers/brands Significant damage due to embers/brands Construction materials for roof and sidings Type of construction (roof, sidings, and frame)
16 Wildfire Risk: Underwriting Perspective Is the property in an area with past wildfires? Which properties are at higher risk than others? Wildfire history Changes over time Risk scoring Station Fire, CA, Oct. 2009: Fuels analyzed in FireLine
17 Wildfire Risk: Claims Perspective Where are current wildfires burning? Which areas of exposure are likely to be affected? Satellites/Drones Weather Observations Sensor Networks Internetof-Things (IoT)
18 Questions and Feedback Contact Dr. Samanta Verisk Wildfire Risk Analysis and FireLine State Risk Reports are available at
19 Thank You! 2017 Insurance Services Office, Inc. All rights reserved Insurance Services Office, Inc. All rights reserved.
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